Foster M cCollum W hite & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

Floridas Presidential Preference, Republican Vice Presidential selection impact, U.S. Senate General Election matchup and Foreign Policy Intervention Exclusive Polling Study

Poll Methodology and Statistics Aggregate Results Conducted by Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B And Douglas Fulmer & Associates August 18, 2012

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State - Wide Aggregate Results (Weighted to projected age, gender & ethnicity of electorate, percentages do not all equal 100%) 1503 Respondents MOE +/- 2.53% Question 1: The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you more likely to vote for in the election?? (Barack Obama): (Mitt Romney): (Another candidate): (Undecided): 39.90% 54.46% 3.05% 4.72%

3%

5%
Barack Obama

40%
Mitt Romney

Another Candidate

Undecided

54%

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Question #2: Republican nominee Mitt Romney has selected Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan as his vice presidential nominee. Does the selection of Paul Ryan make you more or less likely to vote for Mitt Romney in the United States Presidential election? (Paul Ryan makes you more likely to vote for Mitt Romney): (Paul Ryan makes you somewhat likely to vote for Mitt Romney): Total likely to vote for Romney (Paul Ryan makes you somewhat unlikely to vote for Mitt Romney): (Paul Ryan makes you more unlikely to vote for Mitt Romney): Total unlikelyto vote for Romney (If the pick makes no difference in your choice): 44.32% 13.84% 58.16% 10.64% 25.65% 36.29% 6.56%

Paul Ryan makes you more likely to vote for Romney

25%

6%

44%

Paul Ryan makes you somewhat likely to vote for Romney Paul Ryan makes you somewhat unlikely to vote for Romney Paul Ryan makes you more unlikely to vote for Romney Pick makes no difference in your choice

11%

14%

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Question #3: The 2012 United States Senate election will be held in November. Democratic Senator Bill Nelson faces Republican Congressman Connie Mack; who are you most likely to vote for? (Democratic U.S. Senator Bill Nelson): (Republican U.S. Congressman Connie Mack): (Another candidate): (Undecided): 43.08% 50.83% 3.14% 4.69%

3%

4%
Senator Bill Nelson

43%
Congressman Connie Mack

Another Candidate

Undecided

50%

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Question #4: Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan has been selected as the Republican vice presidential nominee. Congressman Ryan has proposed federal budgets that drastically cut the federal deficit, cuts taxes on job creators and proposes the reform of Medicare and Social Security benefits. The Tea Party and business groups support Ryans budget as fiscally responsible, reducing the size and cost of unsustainable programs. Democrats, senior citizens groups and a number of economists oppose Ryans budget proposal citing it gives the richest Americans a tax cut, privatizes Social Security and Medicare and will have a negative effect on the economy. Do you support Congressman Ryans budget plan for the federal government? (For strongly support): (For somewhat support): Total Support (For strongly oppose): (For somewhat oppose): Total Oppose (For undecided): 40.67% 13.01% 53.68% 39.00% 5.37% 44.37% 4.67%

5%

5%

41%

Strongly Support Somewhat Support Strongly Oppose Somewhat Oppose Undecided

39%

13%

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Question #5: President Obama has recently been criticized for saying that the successful businesses and people in America received help along the way from others such as teachers and from government investment such as roads, bridges, police and fire protection. Republicans including Gov. Romney have said that Obamas statement is Anti American and opposed to capitalism and hard work. Do you believe President Obamas statement is Anti American? (You believe President Obamas statement is Anti-American): (You believe President Obamas statement is Pro-American): (You are undecided): (You are unaware): 48.45% 42.85% 7.54% 1.98%

Undecided 7%

Unaware of statement 2%

President Obama's Statement is Anti American

President Obama's statement is Pro American

Undecided

President Obama's statement is Pro American 43%

President Obama's Statement is Anti American 48%

Unaware of statement

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Question #6: Mitt Romney has been heavily criticized by President Obama, Democrats and a growing number of Republicans for not releasing more than 2 years of tax returns. Romney says he is following the example of past candidates, but previous Presidents (Clinton, G.W. Bush and President Obama have released as few as 8 years of tax returns to as many as 14 years of tax returns from provided by George Bush . Some critics say Mitt must be hiding something, while supporters say those questioning Romney on this anti success. Has this issue impacted your view of Mitt Romney? (View Mitt Romney very negatively because of this issue): (View Mitt Romney somewhat negatively because of this issue): Total Support (View Mitt Romney very positively because of this issue): (View Mitt Romney somewhat positively because of this issue): Total Oppose (For undecided): 36.46% 12.70% 49.16% 32.46% 10.91% 43.37% 8.71%

11%

9%

36%

View Romney very negatively View Romney somewhat negatively View Romney very positively View Romney somewhat positively Undecided

32%

13%

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Question #7: With the continuing civil war in Syria, concerns about the recent election in Egypt and the continuing issues between Israel and Iran over Irans nuclear program, do you believe America should actively intervene in Middle East affairs? (Yes, intervene with diplomatic and military actions): (Yes, intervene with diplomatic efforts only): (Yes, intervene with military action only): (Do not intervene): (Undecided): 28.64% 38.86% 3.77% 18.21% 12.16%

12% 18%

29%

Intervene with diplomatic & miltary action Intervene with diplomatic efforts only Intervene with military actions only Do not intervene

4%

Undecided

39%

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Question #8: In Which Age Range Do You Fit? 1- Between 18 to 30 years old, 2- between 31 to 50 years old, 3- between 51 to 65 years old, 4- ages 66 and older (Between 18 to 30 years old): (Between 31 to 50 years old): (Between 51 to 65 years old): (Ages 66 and older): 1.33% 7.65% 27.48% 63.54%

Age Distribution of Aggregate Poll Respondents

80 60 40 20 0 -20 Ages 66 & older Ages 51 to 65 Ages 31 to 50 Ages 18 to 30 27.48 7.65 1.33 Age Dist. Linear (Age Dist.) 63.54

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Question #9: What is your gender? 1. Male 2. Female 42.38% 57.62%

Gender of Aggregate Poll Respondents

Male Voters 42%

Female Voters 58%

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Question #10 Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Democrat, an Independent, a Republican or a Tea Party member? (IF DEM) Do you consider yourself a solid Democrat or leaning Democrat? (IF REP) Do you consider yourself a solid Republican, leaning Republican or a Tea Party Republican? (Solid Democrat): (Leaning Democrat): Total Democrats (Independent): (Solid Republican): (Leaning Republican): (Tea Party Republican): Total Republicans 27.35% 10.84% 38.19% 21.02% 26.95% 8.78% 5.06% 40.79%

9%

5%

Strong Democrat

27%
Leaning Democrat Independent Solid Republican Leaning Republican

27%

11% 21%

Tea Party Republican

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Question #11 Generally speaking, do you consider yourself politically a Conservative, a Moderate or a Liberal? (IF Conservative) Do you consider yourself very conservative or somewhat conservative? (IF Libe ral) Do you consider yourself very liberal or somewhat liberal? (Very conservative): (Somewhat conservative): Total Conservative (Moderate): (Very liberal): (Somewhat liberal): Total Libe ral (Not sure): 27.94% 25.02% 52.96% 29.34% 8.25% 6.72% 14.97% 2.73

8%

7%

3%

28%

Very Conservative Somewhat Conservative Moderate Very Liberal Somewhat Liberal

29%

25%

Not sure

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Question #12 What is your nationality/heritage? Response Code 1 (African American/Black): Response Code 2 (White/Caucasian): Response Code 3 (Hispanic/Latino): Response Code 4 (Asian/Pacific Islander): Response Code 5 (Native American): Response Code 6 (Other American): Response Code 7 (More than one racial/ethnic identity): 6.32% 83.43% 4.06% 0.93% 1.80% 1.73% 1.73%

Multi Racial Multi Racial Other American Native American Asian American Hispanic/Latino White/Caucasian African American

1.73 1.73 1.8 0.93 4.06 83.43 6.32

0 20 40 60 80 100
Other American Native American Asian American Hispanic/Lat ino White/Cauc asian African American

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Question #13: Which of the following most accurately describes your religious background? 1- Evangelical Christian, 2- Catholic, 3- Baptist, 4- Non Evangelical Christian, 5- Jewish, 6- Muslim 7- Other religious affiliation or 8 - No religious affiliation (Evangelical Christian): (Catholic): (Baptist): (Protestant/Non Evangelical Christian): (Jewish): (Muslim): (Other religious affiliation): (No religious affiliation): 21.02% 24.75% 13.77% 17.37% 7.58% 0.47% 5.72% 9.31%

Jewish 8% Non Evangelical Christian 17%

Muslim 0%

Other Religious Affiliation 6%

No Religious affiliation 9% Evangelical Christian 21%

Baptist 14% Catholic 25%

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Foster M cCollum W hite & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

Geographic considerations of polling study respondents Northwest Florida Region North Central Florida Region Northeast Florida Region East Central Region of Florida Tampa Bay Region of Florida Southwestern Florida Region South Central Florida Region Southeast Florida Region 10.31% 5.12% 8.12% 16.10% 22.22% 6.05% 2.86% 29.21%

30 25 20 15 10.31 10 5.12 5 0
Northwest Florida North Central Florida Northeast Florida East Central Region Tampa Bay Region Southwestern Florida

29.21 22.22 16.1

8.12

6.05 2.86

South Central Florida

Southeast Florida

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Geographic Electoral Weight considerations of polling study respondents Major 14 Counties Rest of Florida (Other 53 Counties) 65.54% 34.46%

65.54
70 60 50

34.46
40 30 20 10 0

Major 14 Counties

Other 53 Counties

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Foster M cCollum W hite & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________ Urban Market Community weight based on historical consi derations of polling study respondents Urban Market Co mmunities All other Florida co mmunit ies 16.15% 83.85%

79.97 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Urban Markets All other communities 20.03

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Methodology
-

Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B , a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy, Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn, Michigan) in partnership with Douglas Fulmer & Associates Inc. which is a public affairs, corporate and political communications and research consulting firm located in Mt. Juliet, Tennessee conducted a telephone polling random survey of Florida registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters to determine their voting and issue preferences on the Presidential election, United States Senate general election match-up, the impact of Rep. Paul Ryans addition to the Republican ticket as vice presidential nominee and the desire for intervention in middle east foreign affairs. This thirteen question telephone poll survey was conducted on August 17, 2012 The population surveyed consisted of a sample of traditional Florida high participation registered voters and voters that fit Florida General Election voting patterns. The majority of these voters have participated in a significant majority of the available primary and general election and odd year municipal and county elections in Florida since their registration. Additionally, our call file does allow for random moderate and low participation voters to be included in the sample. Our call file was randomized to allow for the maximum range of participation and randomization. An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election. Thirty-Nine thousand nine hundred and sixty-eight (39,968) calls were placed, and 1,503 respondents fully participated in the survey. The response rate for this survey was 3.76%. Our list-based sample pool was pre-weighted for the gender, ethnicity and age demographics, geographical regions and political participation regions and the congressional districts in Florida. For reporting purposes, we will focus our findings on the following issue-based categories: A. The baseline for Presidential Preference. B. The baseline for the impact of Rep. Paul Ryans entry into the Presidential Campaign. C. The baseline for United State Senate General Election Preference. D. Baseline for issue impact on President Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney E. Voters preference for intervention in Middle East foreign affairs.

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We have made weighting adjustments to the aggregate baseline responses based on the following four groups who were underrepresented in our aggregate polling respondents: Male respondents 42.38% of respondent universe versus 45.2% of (FMW)B PVBA model projections for 2012 November general election and Floridas overall registered voter base. African American respondents 6.32% of respondent universe versus 10.1% of (FMW)B PVBA model projections for 2012 November general election, 13.2% of Floridas overall registered voter base and 13.7% of Floridas adult population. Latino American respondents 4.06% of respondent universe versus 7.0% of (FMW)B PVBA model projections for 2012 November general election, 12.5% of Floridas overall registered voter base and 21.1% of Floridas adult population. Voters ages 18 to 30 years old 1.33% of respondent universe versus 1.8% of (FMW)B PVBA model projections for 2012 November general election and 16.3% of Floridas overall registered voter base. Voters ages 31 to 50 years old 7.65% of respondent universe versus 10.1% of (FMW)B PVBA model projections for 2012 November general election and 21.6% of Floridas overall registered voter base. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.53% with a confidence level of 95%. Our polling study produced sub-populations within each of the surveyed election contest. Results within the sub-populations will be reported with respect to the individual cross-tab and sub-population group as it exist.

Cross tabulation groups for comparison purposes

Age (White & Minority ages 51 to 65 and 66 & older sub categories) Gender (White male & Female & Minority Male and Female sub categories) Florida Geographical Voter Regions Race/Ethnicity Religious affiliation Evangelical Christian, Catholic, Baptist, Non Evangelical Christian, Jewish, Muslim and other religious affiliations Voter Political Party Preference Democratic, Republican and Independent Voter Political Ideology Conservative, Moderate and Liberal Florida Congressional Districts Urban market communities (Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Jacksonville, etc.) Question Two, Four, Five, Six and Seven sub category respondent groups

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Data Analysis Statement

The data has been separated analytically into cross tabulation results that are statistically significant with respect to Florida November election cycle. Any sectional analysis within the aforementioned categories can be useful when inferring strengths and weaknesses and possible strategy. For the purposes of this poll, we have included voters who responded no, leaning no and undecided to questions numbered eight and twelve, as a key cross tab for consideration. For the assessment of individual cross tabulation categories, we use a correlation coefficient model based on the Pearson r correlation, also called linear or product- moment correlation. Pearson correlation (hereafter called correlation), assumes that the two variables are measured on at least interval scales and it determines the extent to which values of the two variables are "proportional" to each other. The value of correlation (i.e., correlation coefficient) does not depend on the specific measurement units used. Our proportional model for correlating the statistical relevance of a geographical region, age grouping or congressional district is based on the random proportionality of our respondent pool to the specific proportionality of the groups weight to the aggregate model. The correlation coefficient (r) represents the linear relationship between these two variables (aggregate and cross tabular category). The aggregate Florida sample size of 1,503 respondents has a 2.53% margin of error, any review of the polling report can allow for the statistical relationship between the aggregate and cross tabulation margin of error for the reported clusters. The poll sample was pre weighted for gender and ethnicity based upon Foster McCollum White Baydoun Predictive Voter Behavior Analysis Model for historic November participation demographics throughout Florida. This poll was commissioned by Foster McCollum White Baydoun and Douglas Fulmer & Associates and not commissioned on behalf of or by any candidate or political organization. We strive to adhere to the principles and standards of the National Council on Public Polls in the gathering and reporting of polling data.

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Foster M cCollum W hite & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

Demographic Sample Report

Our polling sample was very consistent with the projected voter demographic considerations and predictive voter behavior analysis model for a Florida November General election. We have a number of variance items that we will report. Our polling sample call file was weighted for Floridas most likely voter universe for the Presidential election cycle and included consideration for moderate and low participation history voters. We believe our respondent universe is reflective of voters that are highly aware and interested in participating in the Presidential election. We have included weighted aggregate results for polling study consideration based on underrepresented respondents in five demographic sectors (male respondents, respondents ages 18 to 30 and 31 to 50, African American and Latino American respondents). We believe our respondent universe is reflective of voters that are highly aware and interested in participating in the Presidential and US Senate election. We are reporting the data in the weighted models to the demographic variances as to maintain consistency with the interest level of Florida voters for the polling study.

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