Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Sebastian Wolsing
November 21, 2015
Introduction
As we know, the qualification stage for the European football cup in 2016
is over and the teams are waiting for the upcoming draw for the group
stage. The tournament is played in France, and starts on the 10/6-2016. If
you are new to the concept of football tournaments, the things you need to
know are basically that teams qualify and get seeded into different seeding pots as seen in Table 1. The better teams are seeded into pots with low
numbers, and the teams with a lower seed are put into a higher-number
pot.
Each group (A-F) will consists of one country from each seeding pot, to
make the tournament more fair.
Pot 1
Pot 2
Pot 3
Pot 4
Spain
Italy
Czech Republic Turkey
England Russia
Sweden
Republic of Ireland
Germany Switzerland Poland
Iceland
Portugal Austria
Romania
Wales
Belgium Croatia
Slovakia
Albania
France*
Ukraine
Hungary
Northern Ireland
* since France is the host, they are already put into Group A.
Table 1: Seeding pots for EURO 2016
When making the draw, most of us can make the assumption that it doesnt
matter which group we end up in, it only matters what teams we face in
the group stage. But in this particular Euro cup, this is not the case.
If we take a look at the playoff-structure from when the group stage is
finished, the match-ups for the round of 16 looks like this:
(1A means the winner in group A, and 2F means the runner-up in group
F for example)
Match 1 2A vs. 2C
Match 2 1D vs. 3B/E/F*
Match 3 1B vs. 3A/C/D*
Match 4 1F vs. 2E
Match 5 1C vs. 3A/B/F*
Match 6 1E vs. 2D
Match 7 1A vs. 3C/D/E*
Match 8 2B vs. 2F
* decided by another table, see UEFAregulations (article 17.03, p.16)
Table 2: Structure of the round of 16
We can see in Table 2 that since we have six groups, with one winner and
one runner-up in each group, we only get 12 teams advancing to the playoffs. These 12 teams together with the four best third-placed teams form
the 16 participating in the playoffs. This means that the mathematical symmetry in the normal eight-group system they use in the FIFA world cups
can now not be used anymore.
From Table 2 we can conclude a few things:
1. The winners of group A, B, C and D get to face third-placed teams,
when the winners of group E and F move on to face runner-ups (A
clear disadvantage)
2. The runner-ups of group A, B, C and F get to face other runner-ups,
when the runner-ups of group D and E move on to face winners (A
clear disadvantage).
2
A
B C D
Third placed (3) 3 3 3
Runner-up (2)
2 2 First placed (1)
3+2=5
5 5 4
* lower value indicates higher difficulty
E
2
1
3
F
2
2
4
Match 9
Match 10
Match 11
Match 12
Winner of Match 1
Winner of Match 3
Winner of Match 5
Winner of Match 7
vs.
vs.
vs.
vs.
Winner of Match 2
Winner of Match 4
Winner of Match 6
Winner of Match 8
If we look at what groups they come from, it could be one of the following:
1. Winner of groups A or D
2. Third placed team from group B/E/F*
3. Third placed teams from group C/D/E*
(*less likely since they face a winner in the round of 16.)
What we expect to see here is that the groups A and D will be at an
advantage in the quarterfinals, since the winners of group A and D will be
the only ones who can never face another group winner until the semifinals.
2.1
Summarizing
Group
Winner
Runner-up
Sum*
A
B
C
D
E
3+2+1 3+1+1 3+1+1 3+2+1 2+1+1
2+1+1 2+1+1 2+1+1 1+1+1 1+1+1
10
9
9
9
7
* lower value indicates higher difficulty
F
2+1+1
2+1+1
8
Simulations
Of course, simulations were made to illustrate this issue more. The following histograms show 100.000 iterations of EURO 2016 simulations and
the corresponding winners. The simulations are weighted so that the best
team gets a high probability of winning against the worst team.
We can clearly see that group E and F are at a big disadvantage compared
to the other ones.
Improvements
So, how to improve the results? You could easily argue that this is not the
optimal way of organising a European championship, so what should you
do instead?
Well first of all you could start of by saying that a six-group system is
useless from a mathematical point of view, but that isnt very helpful. You
could also state that 24 teams in a tournament where 16 teams advance
to the playoffs is not a good idea either. But there are ways of fixing the
problem.
The things UEFA want to take in consideration are:
1. Teams from the same group should not face each other in the first
round of the playoffs. (Condition 1)
2. The playoff-tree should be symmetric (i.e. three winners on one side
and the other three winners on the other side, same goes for the
runner-ups and the third placed teams) (Condition 2)
Trying to take this into account, we can draw the following conclusion:
Six teams of first place 6 1 = 6
Six teams of second place 6 2 = 12
Four teams of third place 4 3 = 12
Since the sum of these (6 + 12 + 12 = 30) is not divisible by the number
of matches in the round of 16 (8), then the teams can not be symmetrically
distributed. However, if there would be four groups of six teams in each
instead, the sum would be 4 1 + 4 2 + 4 3 + 4 4 = 40 which is divisible by 8.
Since UEFA desperately want to make this work with six groups, then
we need to discard our first condition from before. We can then form a
symmetric playoff-tree by ranking all the the teams that advance by 1-16
(according to the way the best third placed teams are ranked), and then
9
Match 1
Match 2
Match 3
Match 4
Match 5
Match 6
Match 7
Match 8
W(1)
R(2)
W(3)
W(6)
W(5)
W(4)
R(1)
W(2)
vs.
vs.
vs.
vs.
vs.
vs.
vs.
vs.
T(4)
R(3)
T(2)
R(5)
R(6)
T(1)
R(4)
T(3)
10
(a) Quarter-finalists
(b) Semi-finalists
4.1
Final thoughts
One thing worth noting is that the rules state that the host country is
supposed to be in group A, where there should be a higher probability
of winning. Also since the host country is automatically seeded in Pot 1
regardless of skill, one could argue that with this system, group A is a pot
of gold. When I watch the draw at the 12/12-2015, I will make sure to
cheer a little extra for the teams in Group E, because they will need it.
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