Some Visions of the Deepwater

Horizon oil spill

J.W. Richter

All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found. Now comes the
harder work in finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and work
areas. William J. Cummings, Exxon-Mobil company spokesman, December 2005 [40]

It is pretty clear that there is not much chance of finding any significant quantity of
new cheap oil. Any new or unconventional oil is going to be expensive. Lord
Ron Oxburgh, a former chairman of Shell, October 2008 [41]

Daily oil consumption

The world increased its daily oil consumption from 63 million barrels (Mbbl) in
1980 to approx. 85 million barrels in 2010 (Info from: Peak oil )

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill (also referred to as the BP oil spill, the Gulf of
Mexico oil spill, the BP oil disaster or the Macondo blowout) is a massive
ongoing oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

From the April 20, 2010 the gusher is flowing at 35,000 to 60,000 barrels of
crude oil per day ( Info from: Deepwater Horizon oil spill ).

-> The Deepwater Horizon oil spill reaches approximately 0,1% of the global
oil consumption.

Bankrupcy
Just to add another 0,1% to the global oil consumption the company is risking
to go bankrupt. Shares went down for more than 30% within a few weeks.

Developing Alternatives
To avoid the serious social and economic implications a global decline in oil
production could entail, the Hirsch report emphasized the need to find
alternatives, at least ten to twenty years before the peak (Info from: Peak oil).
Impact on car industries
Passenger cars use more than 40 percent of the oil consumed in America.
Drivers spent $186 billion on fuel last year. Without vehicle fuel economy
improvements, Americans will spend an estimated $260 billion in 2020 on
gasoline.[10] (From: Reducing U.S. Oil Dependence ).

An average car in Germany uses about 8.1 liter per 100 km, the US
consumption 16.2 L. In US terms 1 gallon delivers 44 miles in Germany but
only 22 in the States. ( Info from: the Hirsch report ).

Impact on food and intensive agriculture

The largest consumer of fossil fuels in modern agriculture is ammonia
production (for fertilizer) via the Haber process, which is essential to high-
yielding intensive agriculture (Info from: Peak oil ).

Together, direct and indirect consumption by U.S. farms accounts for about 2
percent of the nation's energy use. Oil shortages could impact this food supply.
Some farmers using modern organic-farming methods have reported yields as
high as those available from conventional farming without the use of synthetic
fertilizers and pesticides. However, the reconditioning of soil to restore
nutrients lost during the use of monoculture agriculture techniques made
possible by petroleum-based technology takes time (Info from Agriculture).

Mitigating by taxes on fuels

In many European countries, which have high taxes on fuels, price shocks
could potentially be mitigated somewhat by temporarily or permanently
suspending the taxes as fuel costs rise. This method of softening price shocks
is less useful in countries with much lower gas taxes, such as the United States
(Info from: Peak oil ).

Impact on living conditions

A majority of Americans live in suburbs, a type of low-density settlement
designed around universal personal automotive use. Commentators such as
James Howard Kunstler argue that because over 90% of transportation in the
U.S. relies on oil, the suburbs' reliance on the automobile is an unsustainable
living arrangement. Peak oil would leave many Americans unable to afford
petroleum based fuel for their cars, and force them to use bicycles or electric
vehicles (Info from: Peak oil).
Basically Peak oil will increase the demand for houses in the cities and
decrease the value of remote settlements.
The US military oil consumption
The US Department of Defense (DoD) is the largest oil consuming government
body in the US and in the world.
According to the US Defense Energy Support Center Fact Book 2004, in Fiscal
Year 2004, the US military fuel consumption increased to 144 million barrels.
This is about 40 million barrels more than the average peacetime military
usage.
By the way, 144 million barrels makes 395 000 barrels per day, almost as
much as daily energy consumption of Greece.
The US military is the biggest purchaser of oil in the world ( Info From: Energy
Bulletin ).
For some, this is not enough though. Here is what a report from Office of
Under Secretary of Defense says Because DODs consumption of oil
represents the highest priority of all uses, there will be no fundamental limits
to DODs fuel supply for many, many decades.
American GI is the most energy-consuming soldier ever seen on the field of
war.
The Army calculated that it would burn 40 million gallons of fuel in three
weeks of combat in Iraq, an amount equivalent to the gasoline consumed by
all Allied armies combined during the four years of World War I. ( Info From:
Energy Bulletin )
395 000 barrels per day is equivalent to 0,5% of the total global production.
According to an American Forces Information Service News Article the U.S.
military is using between 10 million and 11 million barrels of fuel each month
to sustain operations in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere. This makes 330 000
- 360 000 barrel per day. This is more than double the amount of oil used in
the Gulf war.
The operational army needs 6 or 7 Deepwater Horizon oil spill gushers for
mobility...
This however does not count for the production of vehicles and other war
materials, which may need another share of oil for production.