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Each year, PricewaterhouseCoopers global team of entertainment and media experts generates unbiased, in-depth forecasts for 12 industry segments. Incorporating data from 4 principal regions comprising 48 countries and areas around the world, Global entertainment and media outlook: 20092013 combines deep knowledge of local markets with a truly global perspective a powerful tool for understanding critical business issues. To learn more about the challenges and opportunities ahead for the entertainment and media industry, please visit pwc.com/e&m.
Authored by:
Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Inc., a provider of global research and analysis of the media, entertainment, and telecommunications industries. www.wilkofskygruen.com
Permission to cite
No part of this publication may be excerpted, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or distributed or transmitted in any form or by any means including electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or scanning without the prior written permission of PricewaterhouseCoopers. Requests should be submitted in writing to Radhika Nanda at radhika.nanda@uk.pwc.com outlining the excerpts you wish to use along with a draft copy of the full report that the excerpts will appear in. Provision of this information is necessary for every citation request to enable PricewaterhouseCoopers to assess the context in which the excerpts are being presented. Without limiting the foregoing, you may not use excerpts from the publication in financial prospectus documents, public offerings, private placement memoranda, filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, annual reports, or similar financial, investment, or regulatory documents.
Copyright 2009 PricewaterhouseCoopers. All rights reserved. PricewaterhouseCoopers refers to the network of member firms of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
ISBN 978-1-931684-19-4 Global entertainment and media outlook: 20092013, Executive summary ISBN 978-1-931684-20-0 Global entertainment and media outlook: 20092013
Contents
Executive summary
PricewaterhouseCoopers Entertainment & Media PracticeCountry contacts . . . . . . . . . . 4 Introduction letter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
Index of tables and charts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 607 To order further copies of this publication, please visit: pwc.com/outlook
Executive summary
Marcel Fenez
marcel.fenez@hk.pwc.com
william.cobourn.jr@us.pwc.com tracey.l.jennings@ca.pwc.com
EMEA
Western Europe
Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom Johannes Mrtl Eddy Dams John Gabriel Srensen Harri Valkonen Franois Antarieu Frank Mackenroth Dinos Michalatos Susan Kilty Andrea Samaja John Middelweerd Bjrn Leiknes Jos Vitorino Manuel Martn Espada Nicklas Kullberg Patrick Balkanyi Phil Stokes johannes.moertl@at.pwc.com eddy.dams@be.pwc.com john.gabriel.sorensen@dk.pwc.com harri.valkonen@fi.pwc.com francois.antarieu@fr.pwc.com frank.mackenroth@de.pwc.com dinos.michalatos@gr.pwc.com susan.kilty@ie.pwc.com andrea.samaja@it.pwc.com john.middelweerd@nl.pwc.com bjorn.leiknes@no.pwc.com jose.vitorino@pt.pwc.com manuel.martin.espada@es.pwc.com nicklas.kullberg@se.pwc.com patrick.balkanyi@ch.pwc.com phil.stokes@uk.pwc.com
Middle East/Africa
Israel Saudi Arabia/Pan Arab South Africa
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates.
Asia Pacific
Australia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Malaysia New Zealand Pakistan Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Steven Bosiljevac Marcel Fenez Marcel Fenez Timmy Kandhari Nita Ruslim Hideaki Zenba Uthaya Kumar Grant Dennis Sohail Hasan Irene Vallestero Boon Chok Tan Kwang-Ho Kim Han Wu Kajornkiet Aroonpirodkul David Fitzgerald steven.bosiljevac@au.pwc.com marcel.fenez@hk.pwc.com marcel.fenez@hk.pwc.com timmy.s.kandhari@in.pwc.com nita.ruslim@id.pwc.com hideaki.zenba@jp.pwc.com uthaya.kumar@my.pwc.com grant.a.dennis@nz.pwc.com sohail.hasan@pk.pwc.com irene.vallestero@ph.pwc.com boon.chok.tan@sg.pwc.com kwang-ho.kim@kr.pwc.com han.wu@tw.pwc.com kajornkiet.aroonpirodkul@th.pwc.com david.fitzgerald@vn.pwc.com
Latin America
Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela Ariel Vidan Estela Vieira Rafael Ruano Diego Henao Luis Roberto Martnez del Barrio Luis Rincon ariel.vidan@ar.pwc.com estela.vieira@br.pwc.com rafael.ruano@cl.pwc.com diego.henao@co.pwc.com luis.roberto.martinez@mx.pwc.com luis.rincon@ve.pwc.com
Executive summary
June 2009
To our clients and friends both in and beyond the entertainment and media industry:
Welcome to the 10th annual edition of PricewaterhouseCoopers Global entertainment and media outlook, covering the forecast period of 20092013. Our forecasts and analyses for this edition focus on 12 major entertainment and media (E&M) industry segments. To reflect the ever-changing nature of the industry, as well as ever-emerging digital revenue streams, we have increased the depth of data for each of the 48 countries and areas covered in the Outlook. Although the global economy was showing signs of weakness, the performance of many of the E&M sectors in the first nine months of 2008 was helped by spending associated with the Beijing Olympics and elections in a number of key markets. However, in the fourth quarter, the negative impact of the economic downturn on the E&M industry was becoming clear. The prevailing unprecedented economic conditions will significantly impact prospects in the near term and may expose weaknesses in some sectors. Against such a backdrop, we believe there will be nowhere to hide from the implications of digital migration. The pace of change is likely to increase with the greater economic pressure, as consumers seek higher value from the content they consume and as advertisers seek more accountability. We see that the impact of digital migration will differ between segments and geographies during the forecast period, in reflection of varying economic conditions as well as the availability and affordability of broadband and mobile infrastructure. The emerging-market growth story remains as valid an opportunity as ever. While a range of short-term challenges have been posed by the economic downturn, the real challenge lies in how to take advantage of the digital reality. Monetizing the increasing demand for entertainment and media content, capitalizing on evolving consumption habits, and developing diverse new advertising revenue models are challenges that companies will need to address. We believe this is a time to differentiate through innovation of and capitalization on new forms of collaboration across the entertainment, media, and communications value chains. All of us at PricewaterhouseCoopers continue to stay on top of trends and developments that may impact your business now and in the future, and we look forward to further sharing our thoughts with you. We appreciate your feedback and ask that you continue to tell us what we can do to make the Outlook more useful to you. If you wish additional clarification on any matters included in the Outlook or you believe we can be of service to your business in any way, please either contact one of the PricewaterhouseCoopers E&M professionals listed opposite or visit our Web site (www.pwc.com/e&m) for details of the contact in your territory. Finally, we thank you for your support and wish you an exciting and rewarding year ahead.
Sincerely,
Introduction
We are pleased to present the 10th annual edition of the PricewaterhouseCoopers Global entertainment and media outlook, containing five-year forecasts of annual revenues and industry trends for the 20092013 period across 12 major segments in 48 countries and regions. As we prepare the Outlook, the full extent of (1) the impact of the international financial crisis on the economy, (2) the shortage of credit, and (3) cutbacks in consumer spending has yet to be determined. Neither is it clear whether and to what degree the various stimulus packages and bailout plans will halt, slow, or reverse the slide. We do know that the global economy is more interrelated than ever and that developments in one country or region can quickly affect others. Historical precedentthe benchmark from which forecasts are developedis now a less reliable guide because the economic climate in most countries is more volatile than at any time in recent history. While it is clear that changes in the economic environment in 2009 could significantly affect the projections, we believe that many of the underlying trends we identify in the Outlook and that are driving change in the industry will remain on course. The information in this publication reflects the collective wisdom of our large team of professionals who work with entertainment and media (E&M) companies around the world. It is a unique resource for the industry, offering a five-year outlook for global consumer spending and advertising revenues, along with insights into the technology, government, political, consumer, and business trends driving these forecasts. The purpose of this Executive Summary is to provide a brief overview of the data presented in the Outlook for 20092013 and to present a thought piece on ideas generated by the data in the full book. also enable us to include, for the first time, full breakouts on a country-by-country basis for mobile television, videoon-demand, video console games, PC video games, online video games, wireless video games, video game advertising, online rental subscriptions, and digital downloads. Every revenue stream is now included in country totals. We have also added digital directory advertising as a new revenue line in the Business-to-Business Publishing chapter. We believe that this additional analysis will ensure greater consistency between countries. Due to the importance of access to the Internetbe it wired or wirelessas a driver of many of the developments in the industry as a whole, we have continued to dedicate a chapter to that area. Finally, we are now combining the United States and Canada into a regionNorth Americawhich provides better balance with our treatment of other regions. We still provide full breakouts for both the United States and Canada.
Categories covered
Internet access: wired and mobile Internet advertising: wired and mobile Television subscriptions and license fees Television advertising Recorded music Filmed entertainment Video games Radio and out-of-home Consumer magazine publishing Newspaper publishing Consumer and educational book publishing Business-to-business publishing
Regions/countries covered
North America Canada United States EMEA Western Europe Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom Central and Eastern Europe Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Russia Turkey Middle East/Africa Israel Saudi Arabia/Pan Arab South Africa Asia Pacific Australia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Malaysia New Zealand Pakistan Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates.
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The E&M landscape in 2013: no hiding place from the migration to digital
Over the next five years, digital technologies will become increasingly pervasive across all segments of entertainment and media, as the digital migration seen to date continues to expand and accelerate. As a result, throughout our forecast period to 2013 there will be no hiding place from the impact of new models and new dynamics across the industry. The change will occur and manifest itself across three parallel dimensions: Economic: The current economic downturn will accelerate and intensify the migration to digital technologies among both providers and consumers of content. Consumer behavior: The accelerating digital transformation will in turn reinforce and proliferate new consumption habits and so-called digital behaviors, as consumers seek (1) more control over where, when, and how they consume content and (2) higher value from their entertainment and media choices. Advertising: As digital behaviors become more widespread and embedded, a new generation of adfunded revenue models will emerge, aiming to reflect and capitalize on the evolving consumption habits by delivering advertising that is more targeted and relevant to the specific audience. By 2013, the combination of the aforementioned three change dimensions will have created an even more fragmented E&M landscape, characterized by a wide divergence of revenue models. Traditional revenue models in segments such as TV and magazines will be replaced by more-targeted and more-tailored models that will differ widely within and across segments. In the rest of this Executive Summary, we examine these three change dimensions in greater detaildrawing on the findings from our analysis for the PricewaterhouseCoopers Global entertainment and media outlook: 20092013 together with other insights from our varied experience and ongoing research across the industry.
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The overall impact of the current downturn will be to speed up the move to digital rather than slow it downpartly by creating an unarguable case in favor of digital migration across the industry.
In terms of providers, the successful players in the entertainment and media landscape of 2013 will share a number of characteristics, as described in a recent PricewaterhouseCoopers publication, A brand new era: The winners from this downturn will have the confidence, agility and quality of decision-making to do what is required to survive, whilst adapting to the new environment in which they operate. The downturn provides the burning platform for change. This means a change in managing brands, characters, titles and talent across distribution platforms supported by new commercial models. Media companies which emerge from the downturn with a lower cost base and a differentiated business model will redefine the competitive dynamics in those sectors subject to changing consumer behavior.
The companies that emerge as the winners in the new environment will do so by embracing digital migration. Digital spending will be the industrys main engine of growth over the next five years, making further major inroads into all segments and claiming a rising share of overall industry revenues. In some segmentssuch as TV subscriptions and license fees, filmed entertainment, and video games digital spend will help drive continuing expansion in the segments overall revenues. Even in segments where overall revenues are falling, such as business-to-business publishing, rising digital spend will help partially offset the ongoing wider decline. However, even though digital will dominate the growth agenda, it is worth noting that the bulk of all E&M spending globally will remain nondigital throughout the forecast period, driven by the four largest sectors by revenueTV subscriptions and license fees, TV advertising, newspaper publishing, and business-to-business publishingwhich continue to be dominated by nondigital revenues. But the momentum will be with digitaland will remain there. And to a large extent, the continued existence of significant nondigital revenues presents the emerging digital revenue models with an untapped opportunity to seize. Meanwhile, the need to retain traditional spend while tapping into the growth offered by digital is a major strategic consideration, as providers create and refine their revenue models. To strike the right balance, providers need to expand their share of digital revenues while ensuring they do not undermine or cannibalize their legacy nondigital spend. For all E&M companiesand especially for global players
The global economic downturn does not change the underlying drivers for digital but may influence their pace and power and therefore the timing of industry change.
Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
12
managing across various geographiesthis task is made all the more complex and difficult by the stark differences between markets worldwide, affecting key factors such as economic growth rates, local cultures, lifestyles, consumer spending, and communications infrastructures. The impact on entertainment and media spending Given the combination of a global economic downturn and accelerating migration to digital revenue models, what will be the impact on overall spending on entertainment and media during the five-year forecast period? While the global entertainment and media market as a whole will grow by 2.7 percent compounded annually for the entire forecast period, it will include a period of much faster growth during 201113, when the aggregate rate of expansion globally will leap to 5.9 percent compounded annually. The accompanying chart compares the relative growth rates we are forecasting for the various industry segments during both the downturn of 200910 and the anticipated recovery in 201113. As this comparison shows, the growth rates of more digitally driven segments such as Internet access, Internet
advertising, and TV subscriptions will outperform the industry as whole during both the downturn and the recovery. For others, such as newspaper publishing, the upturn will coincide with a return to growth, albeit from a lowered base for newspaper publishing. However, the underlying message is that while the downturn clearly impacts the pace of growth in each segment of the industry, it does not alter the underlying pattern of digital revenues expanding at the expense of nondigital revenues. During our five-year forecast period, these contrasting growth rates and digitals rising share of spend will drive an ongoing rebalancing of the industrys overall revenues between the segments. The accompanying pie charts compare the relative revenue shares between the various segments for 2008 and 2013, excluding Internet access spending. Segments such as business-to-business publishing, newspaper publishing, and consumer magazine publishing will have suffered ongoing reductions in market share, with revenues falling not just relative to the marketplace but also in absolute terms, reflecting the inability of digital revenue streams to offset declines in revenues from traditional, nondigital sources. However, substantial gains in market share will be achieved by such segments as Internet advertising, video games, TV subscriptions and license fees, and filmed entertainmentreflecting the successful capitalization of digital strategies.
200910 201113
PricewaterhouseCoopers 12th annual global CEO survey, conducted in late 2008 among more than 1,100 CEOs worldwide, casts further light on attitudes to the downturn. It found that a financial downturn is nothing new for technology, communications, and entertainment and media companies, with many of todays senior executives being veterans of the dot-com crash in 2001. Yet the research revealed a general feeling among CEOs that the current crisis is differentlargely because this time not only their own industry sectors are suffering; their financiers, suppliers and customers are struggling too.
13
14% 10% 6%
5% 16%
12% 9% 6%
7% 18%
Internet advertising: wired and mobile TV subscriptions and license rees TV advertising Recorded music Filmed entertainment Video games Consumer magazine publishing
TV subscriptions and license rees TV advertising Recorded music Filmed entertainment Video games
14% 2% 7% 4% 7%
Consumer magazine publishing Newspaper publishing Radio and out-of-home Consumer and educational book publishing Business-to-business publishing
16% 6% 6% 8% 2%
14%
Newspaper publishing Radio and out-of-home Consumer and educational book publishing Business-to-business publishing
15%
A global downturn with varying impacts at a local level In addition to growing divergence between the performance of different sectors, the next five years will see widening gaps between different geographic entertainment and media markets worldwide. One reason is that, while the downturn will tend to accelerate digital migration globally, its effects on GDP growth will be far from uniform. Even within regions there will be major disparities at the country level. For example, in Japan in 2009 we project a 7.4 percent drop in nominal GDP, but across Asia Pacific, this will coincide with an 11.5 percent increase in GDP in India, an 8 percent increase in the Peoples Republic of China (PRC), and gains of 6 percent or more in Indonesia, Pakistan, and the Philippines.
Such divergences reflect the differing dynamics of the slowdown in different markets. In some countriesnotably developed economies with high levels of consumer debt, such as the US and the UKaccess to credit became sharply curtailed, resulting in the housing and consumer sectors being hit by a squeeze or so-called credit crunch. In contrast, in other territoriessuch as Chinathat are major exporters to those credit-crunched markets, the slowdown was driven by a fall in exports rather than a credit squeeze. The export-crunched markets will generally recover more quickly, because their underlying economies are likely to be more robust than those in which the downturn has sprung from internal structural issues around lending risk and the supply of credit.
14
GDP and entertainment and media spending: An indirect relationship The growth or decline in GDP at regional and local levels will not translate directly into E&M spending patterns. In combination with the impact of the global economic downturn at local and regional levels, markets differ in terms of both legacy and new entertainment and media offerings, regulation, culture, infrastructure, and consumer demand, not to mention economic maturity and the socioeconomic measures of GDP per capita and per household. These embedded structural differences can make for dramatic differences to the performance of similar services in different geographies. For example, mobile Internet access revenues in Asia Pacific will overtake wired access in 2010 and will account for over 53 percent of overall Internet access spending in 2013. In contrast, mobile access spending in every other region will still represent only a fraction of overall Internet access revenue throughout the forecast period. The link between GDP and E&M spending is also less than straightforward at the global level. Historically, the entertainment and media market globally has tended to be income elastic, meaning that it grows faster than the economy in times of economic expansion and slower than the economy when the economy is sluggish or contracting. In line with those trends, overall entertainment and media spending has lagged nominal GDP growth during the past two yearsother than in emerging markets, where E&M growth has well exceeded GDP growthand will grow at a slower rate than the overall economy during the three
years to 2011. However, it will then leapfrog GDP as the recovery gathers pace and consumer spending picks up. While the income-elastic pattern of overall entertainment and media spending in relation to GDP may reflect previous recessions, other findings in the Outlook suggest that that relationship with GDP is changing, especially in economies characterized as emerging. In previous editions of the Outlook, we noted the tendency for growth in spending on entertainment and media to outpace GDP growth in emerging markets. However, the accompanying chart shows a comparison between GDP growth and E&M revenue growth split out between the downturn phase (200910) and the recovery phase (201113) for selected territories. The chart shows that in both India and China, entertainment and media revenue growth compounded annually from 2011 to 2013 will lag behind compound GDP growth for that period. In contrast, entertainment and media spending in most developed markets in 201113 will rebound more quickly to outpace the corresponding compound GDP growth rate. The entertainment and media markets in India and China are beginning to mature while experiencing rising competitive pressures. Consequently, these countries are entering a period of slower revenue growth against GDP. Also, differences in GDP growth between 200910 and 201113
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are relatively modest compared with growth in other countries. Consequently, India and China will suffer less during the next two years from a slower economy but will also experience less of an incremental rebound during the subsequent years. This is a shift we will watch with interest and comment on in future editions.
CAGR %
Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Consumers will continue to want more say in when, how, and where they consume content.
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called Net Generationthe global, connected youth cohort born from 1977 to 1997, who represent the first generation to grow up digital. For these young people, new media technologies are intuitively familiar components of everyday life. One major impact of those in the Net Generation is that they are collectively driving the industry toward new business models that emphasize a more personal two-way relationship between companies and customers. Another is that they are influencing their parents and grandparents to take a growing interest in new and emerging platforms. In our view, the downturn will increase that influence still further, since it will make the older demographics more value conscious and therefore more willing to listen to their children and grandchildren. New consumption habits feeding through to revenues Each of these developments involves consumers obtaining entertainment and media directly or indirectly through digital and/or mobile platforms. Put simply, consumers want to decide for themselves what they consume, as well as how, when, and where they consume itincluding the ability to sideload: consuming the same digital content on several different platforms. Several developments reflect this profound behavioral shift. And their overall impact will be to drive an ongoing rise in spending on digital/mobile platforms throughout and beyond the five-year forecast period, thereby enabling these platforms to gain an ever-higher share of total consumer end-user and access spending on entertainment and media. To date, recorded music has led this transformation, and we expect that within the forecast period a majority of music will be purchased through digital channelsthe first segment to cross this divide. Other segments are heading down the same path, at different speeds, and in different geographies. Our projections for global recorded music revenues underline those regional variations. In each region, gains in digital music distribution will ultimately offset continued declines in physical formats, driving overall revenues back upward. Asia Pacific will be the first region to experience the turnaround, with overall spending beginning to increase in 2011, followed by Latin America in 2012 and North America in 2013. In EMEA, spending will continue to fall until 2013, when it will stabilize.
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disposable incomes made the price of genuine product more of a disincentive to buy. Similarly, 3-D films are selling at higher price points than standard films because comparable product is not available elsewhere. In general, the moviegoing audience has remained loyal to the movie theater experience despite the availability of movie content at lower cost elsewhere by means of quality improvements such as advanced sound systems, digital projection, and other packaging techniques aimed at improving the overall audience experience. Consumers also are paying premium fees for high-speed broadband, digital cable, video-on-demand, mobile Internet access, and the new console video games. The Apple iTunes/iPhone combination is playing a central role in driving home the benefits of mobility in content areas such as music, Web access, and video and is bringing the iTunes message of convenient, authorized, downloadable content to millions of consumers worldwide. In each case, the products or services gaining the greatest traction among consumers provide added quality or convenience that is not available elsewhere.
Looking across entertainment and media as a whole, end-user spending through digital/mobile platforms totaled $218 billion in 2008, representing 23.4 percent of the overall consumer/end-user/access market. Those platforms will account for 78 percent of total consumer/ end-user/access growth during the next five years expanding at a 12.2 percent compound annual rate to $387 billion, compared with compound annual growth of only 1.3 percent for the nondigital/mobile marketplace. Seeking not just more control but also greater value In combination with greater control over content, consumers are also demanding higher value from the entertainment and media services they use. They are increasingly making cost-benefit judgments over the ways they consume media, in some cases opting for low-cost or free alternatives (often in return for accepting advertising) and in other cases paying premium fees for high-quality content. The key issue in these decisions is the availability of substitutes of comparable quality. For example, when legitimate digital services took hold in the music industry, they did so only at substantially reduced prices compared with physical product because of the availability of free alternatives. In the analog era, by contrast, copies of analog recordings via such formats as tape cassettes were often of noticeably poorer quality than their licensed counterparts, so they did not materially cut into legitimate salesexcept in emerging markets, where lower
Consumers increasingly base their choice of content experiences and consumption patterns on a cost-benefit judgment including whether the same experience is available more cheaply elsewhere.
At the same time, low price can be a compelling part of the value equation for many consumersand in many cases there are free close substitutes available over digital platforms. This poses particular challenges for traditional physical content providers such as newspapers and magazines. However, newspapers do have strengths they can bring to bear to open up digital commercial opportunities, not least their trusted news brands and proven expertise in sorting and sourcing the highest-quality data. The challenge facing newspapers is to turn that combination of brand strength and news expertise into revenues, and many are launching new strategies to do so.
18
In April 2009, Pearsons Financial Times Group launched China Confidential, a premium, subscription newsletter and Web site providing exclusive predictive analysis on China. And in May 2009, News Corp. chairman Rupert Murdoch said he expected the group to start charging users for access to its newspaper Web sites within a year. In the same week, newspapers including the New York Times and Washington Post announced they would test the new, larger-screen version of Amazons e-book device, the Kindle, as a platform for subscriptions. Magazines are making similar moves while being careful to avoid cannibalizing their content by putting it online for free. The magazine publishers that have proved most successful in entering the digital space have leveraged strong brands across multiple media platforms and generated revenues from online advertising, search-engine marketing, and e-commerce.
Newspapers strengths in the digital era: trusted editorial and brand value
Consumers see breaking news and general interest news as commodities, but there is always a market for high-value online content in specific topics. Our consumer research indicates that consumers are willing to pay for such contentboth online and in print format such as specialist newsletters but newspapers need to develop strategies for monetizing their content and intellectual capital. Newspapers have been able to earn their readers trust and loyalty, giving newspapers the opportunity to both lead and follow audiences as the newspapers migrate online and into the use of portable electronic media. Indeed, with the core principles of deep analysis and trusted editorial, the medium is secondary to the brand.
Source: Moving into multiple business models: outlook for newspaper publishing in the digital age, PricewaterhouseCoopers
Despite the current advertising downturn, many of the emerging generation of revenue models are ad funded.
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In the mobile arena, opportunities across the advertising continuum will open up to grow the relationship between brands and consumers, ranging from click-through banner ads and pre-roll ads on video clips through coupons and online subscriptions. This will move mobile advertising beyond impressionsand onward to engagement, transaction, and relationship revenue opportunities. There are several developments that reflect the online/ mobile migration in ad dollars, and these are summarized in the accompanying information panel. As the emergence of ad-funded revenue models increases its pace, overall advertising spend will shift toward digital. The aggregate total of digital and mobile advertising accounted for 12 percent of total global advertising in 2008, up from 4 percent in 2004. During the five years to 2013, advertising that targets new consumer behaviors will grow by a cumulative 7.8 percent, and spending on all other forms of advertising will fall by 2 percent compounded annually. By 2013, advertising that targets new consumer behaviors will account for close to one-fifth of the total global advertising pie.
Ungroup
80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 20 US$ (millions) 10,000 PricewaterhouseCoopers | Global entertainment and media outlook: 20092013 8,000 Video games Mobile Digital newspapers Digital consumer magazines Digital trade magazines Digital directories Wired Internet
Editable
New models tackling the challenges The migration toward ad revenues derived from new behaviors will not be without its challenges. In the near term, the weak advertising market will make it difficult to finance content completely through advertising. The broad decline in ad revenues currently under way reflects a number of factors, including the economic downturn; related shifts in the trade-off between price, volume, and effectiveness; and a move toward more below-the-line activity to get closer to customers. Even over the longer run, when overall ad spend recovers, the economics of the advertising market may make the transition difficult. In newspapers and magazines, for example, the potential online advertising inventory is much larger than the potential print advertising inventoryso online ad rates tend to be lower than print rates. This means that shifting from print to digital may initially result in a significant reduction in ad revenues. Content providers are developing new approaches to deal with this dilemma. For example, TV programmers are putting their shows online with embedded ads that cannot be skipped, and theyre programming traditional shows in high definition. At the same time, advertising is also being introduced in media that previously were financed entirely by consumers. For example, when the previous generation of console platforms was introduced earlier in the decade, there was no video game advertising. But video games generated $1.4 billion in advertising in 2008, a total that will rise to a projected $2.6 billion in 2013. Meanwhile, in the recorded music segment, companies are eliminating copyright protection software, making authorized digital distribution sufficiently user-friendly to compete with pirated product. Ad-supported recorded
music services are entering the market and could begin to provide a measurable revenue stream within the next five years. And subscription models are being introduced that provide users access to virtually unlimited amounts of music for a flat feeessentially converting music delivery from a product to a service. A recent entrant to the market, Spotify, has a hybrid business model that offers a free, advertising-supported service to a vast music library, as well as daily, monthly, and annual subscription options that allow ad-free listening. A common factor in many of the successful models of the future will be the ability to collaborate with partners. Such collaboration takes two forms: (1) collaboration on revenues to open up and exploit new areas and (2) ongoing cost sharing to operationalize the shared benefits. The key will be to find an equitable way of sharing both the risks and the rewards for mutual advantage while also keeping the cost/value equation positive for consumers. Going forward, we expect that the successful models will be those that provide enough product differentiation from free or low-cost substitutes to generate revenue either from consumers or advertisers ormore likelyfrom both.
Alongside new ad-funded models, existing ad models are adapting to resist downward pressure on ad rates in the digital environment.
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In PricewaterhouseCoopers 12th annual global CEO survey, 93% of respondents in the technology, communications, and entertainment and media sectors report that technological innovation is important or critical, compared with just 83% of the overall survey sample. Many of those respondents are also much more likely to collaborate with external organizations so as to improve their access to intellectual property, talent, sources of capital, and marketing channels.
restrictions. For example, personalized online video advertising, facilitated by the growth of Internet protocol (IP) platforms, is an as-yet largely untapped opportunity. It also requires clearer and more effective communication of the value of display advertising, with an emphasis on demonstrating the value of advertising on brand and longterm sales performance. To underpin that accountability and transparency and to help advertisers compare the effectiveness of their investment in digital advertising across segments, there is a need for the development of a common advertising currency both for digital media and out-of-home advertising. At the same time, there is a common requirement to educate both agencies and advertisers in how to make the most of the digital opportunity. This would serve to support the most-effective new ad models while also helping secure trust in different types of media. However, as the ad industry moves toward previously undreamed-of levels of targeting and effectiveness, this combination of selling points brings with it two challenges for new ad-funded models. One is tactical: a need to pay heed to privacy regulation and customers concerns over the confidentiality and integrity of their own personal data. The other is a more strategic issue for the ad industry as a whole. If the digital advertising offer of the future is increasingly effective, that means it offers advertisers the ability to reach their target audiences more accurately, with lower levels of wasteand therefore lower cost. So advertisers will be able to achieve the same or better reach and performance for a lower spend. The fact that overall ad spend will actually be lower in 2013 than 2008 may mean not that companies are advertising less but simply that they can do it more cheaply because of greater ad effectiveness. The outcome may be a structural reduction in ad spend globally, with the saving reallocated elsewhere. This is another long-term trend that we will watch with interest in future editions.
To attract advertising, digital channels need to accept accountability for audience and results.
The need for effectivenessand accountability More-accurate targeting and relevance of ads to the specific consumerthereby making advertising spend more effective will be critical to the success of emerging ad-funded models. To achieve this, the next generation of ad models will apply sophisticated customer data analytics to (1) target people who are actually interested in receiving ads and (2) make the ads more relevant to the individual consumer. However, to win ad spend from traditional channels, the new models will have to prove to advertisers that the digital alternative really is more effective. So providing transparency over audience metrics and even accepting accountability for ad results will become musts rather than luxuries. Already, technological changethrough new optimization models, usage metrics, and searchhas increased the expectation for accountability across the whole media sector. Over the coming years, effective management and analysis of customer datadrawing on lessons from the retail and financial services marketswill turn into a core competency in entertainment and media. In practice, this means acquiring the capability to use technology to its full potential and exploit consumer data to the fullest extent possible within regulatory and privacy
The rise of digital advertising may result in a permanent decline in overall global ad spend.
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movie exhibitors are transforming their screens to digital and 3-D, thereby helping sustain box office spending in the face of fierce competition from other choices. Investment in the new video game consoles is driving the video game marketa segment whose revenues in 2008 outperformed our forecast from last year. Indeed, it became the fastestgrowing segment in the global industry, with 18.2 percent year-on-year growth, thanks to high-double-digit increases across console, online, and wireless games, as well as in the small but fast-growing in-game advertising market. Looking across the industry more generally, micropayments represent a further high-potential area of investment for driving future spending. The iTunes application store for the Apple iPhone has triggered the emergence of a major market in impulsewear, with millions of consumers buying and downloading applications that are easy and cheap enough to buy on a whim. Anecdotal evidenceincluding our consumer focus groups and countless entries on blogs and chat sites suggests that consumers would spend a lot more if they could transact micropayments more readily, including from within applications. Going forward, the model for a quick, convenient, and easy micropayment system may well involve a stored-value approach, which is one of the solutions under consideration.
Meeting consumers demand for higher quality requires significant investment just to stay in the game.
Realizing the value of intellectual property by going cross-platform In combination, ongoing investments in the broad array of aforementioned areas will be crucial in driving spending on content. Such investments also underline the fact that companies in all entertainment and media segments currently face an absolute need to investigate the specific
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E&M companies need to invest now for the future environment despite limited forward visibility around economic conditions, consumer behavior, and revenue models.
implementation and embedding of the other IPInternet protocoland digital technologies, bringing crossplatform capabilities. Currently, most of the entertainment and media companies derive the majority of their revenues from a limited number of channels. As the migration to online and digital accelerates, effective cross-platform exploitation of brands, characters, titles, programs, or patents will become increasingly critical. In practice, it means investing in and managing assets across the portfolio in order to maximize overall profitability. This involves investment in digitization of the archive, rights negotiations, and search functionality to help consumers navigate their way through the mass of legacy content more easily and thereby monetize it more effectively. It also means driving new content hard for mass-market exploitation, including developing better back-end collections management capabilities and exploiting rights more vigorously. Industry players are increasingly seizing the opportunity to exploit their intellectual property across platforms and monetize it by building and maximizing the communities of interest around it. This is particularly prevalent in the area of sports rights. Many broadcasters who initially bought the exclusive transmission rights to specific sports content are now building multiplatform activities around it, including discussion groups, online competitions, and Web-based catch-up services. These activities simultaneously strengthen and capitalize on the communities of people interested in the particular sport.
risks and opportunities that digital migration open up in their particular segment of the value chain. By making the right responses, they will position themselves to ride the economic upturn and the accelerating migration to digital. In some cases, such as digital content distribution, that response will require investment, particularly in technology. In others, such as content production, the requirement may be more to forge a broader range of distribution and platform relationships. Whatever the right response may be, it must be made now, within an uncertain environment. In our view, the players who make the right calls will be characterized by rigorous focus on maximizing the monetization and profit generation from intellectual property (IP) across all channels. This in turn will depend on effective
Format convergence and the need for crossplatform reach are driving M&A Convergence remains an important driver of M&A activity in the entertainment and media space. The broad trend towards convergence of media formats and the need for E&M companies to provide content and services across multiple platforms has been a key driver of deal activity in the sector in recent times. E&M business models are evolving as companies continue to develop new capabilities and technological platforms to boost interactivity and deliver media more effectively to increasingly targeted audience segments.
Source: Insights: Entertainment & media: analysis and trends in US M&A activity 2009, PricewaterhouseCoopers
Building and monetizing communities of interest around content is an increasingly widely used strategy for releasing value from intellectual property.
Overcoming the tactical challenges of digital globalization: Rights, local regulation, and piracy We have already pointed out that the global downturn will increase the diversity in revenue performance between different geographies over the next five years. However,
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that divergence will coincide with headlong technological convergence, as rising usage of digital technology across countries and segments progressively increases the ability to transfer and consume content across borders. This will create some operational challengesfor example, making it harder to stagger content release dates in different parts of the world or sustain differentiated pricing strategies. Platform- or country-based content rights deals may also become more problematic; for example, imagine the impact of being able to port a movie onto a standard chip that could be inserted into a laptop, TV, or mobile device. Also, while a world characterized by digital everywhere might make it appear easier to enter new markets directly and without a physical presence or local partner on the ground, the strength of local content production industries and differing consumer tastes means a local presence is still necessary; local content remains a cornerstone of global expansion. A further challenge of digital globalization is the nationbased and highly fragmented nature of media and privacy regulation. Regulation has always presented challenges, not least through ownership restrictions. Over the next few years, as ad-based models become more reliant on personal data to facilitate targeting and relevance, privacy regulation will come increasingly to the foreespecially in such areas as personal confidentiality and opt-in/opt-out ad models. Further regulation-related factors in the wake of the current downturn will be such issues as state support for broadband rollouts andless directlythe impact of state bailouts and economic revitalization packages. However, our view is that regulationrather like the economic downturn itselfwill have more of an impact on the timing and speed of the migration to digital content,
Robust regional industry in Europe Europes media sector proved its resilience in the wake of the technology media and telecoms (TMT) bubble-burst of 2001/2 and, despite todays challenges, remains a dynamic and innovative sector. With further scope for consolidation and growth and with the digital/online revolution still in full swing, it is unlikely to remain in the doldrums for too long.
Source: Media sector M&A insights: analysis & opinions on European M&A activity 2009, PricewaterhouseCoopers
new behaviors, and new ad models than on the shape of the emerging landscape. Regulation is a country issue and therefore a local matter. It will put bumps along the route but not roadblocks, and companies will address those challenges at the tactical level rather than having to form their strategies around them. Piracy is a further growth inhibitor where regulators have roles and which will again represent a tactical rather than a strategic challenge. The music and film industries are experimenting with new approaches to stem online piracy, including dropping copy protection software and requiring Internet service providers to act against persistent unauthorized downloaders. Legal remedies are also advancing, including a Swedish courts April 2009 landmark conviction of the individuals behind the filesharing service The Pirate Bay. Meanwhile, the television industry is making headway in providing licensed online product in a bid to replace unauthorized use, with Web sites such as Hulu in the United States proving successful in providing authorized access to television programs over the Internet. Generally, as the industry becomes more creative in dealing with piracy and as government strategies start to have an impact, copyright holders will be able to regenerate revenues, either directly or indirectly, from their intellectual property.
Like the global slowdown, regulation and piracy are tactical and region-specific challenges that will not deflect the industry from ongoing digital migration.
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In conclusion: entertainment and media is wellpositioned to exploit the coming economic upturn
By 2013, the industrys accelerating digitizationcoupled with the growing divergence between the revenue performance of different segments and marketswill create an E&M landscape characterized by a myriad of business models and a far more tailored approach. Put simply, a model that works with one particular type of consumer, one particular form of content, or one particular national marketplace may not work with others. The resulting fragmented landscape of specifically designed revenue models will be far from, for example, the globally generic ad-funded model that once served commercial TV so well. As entertainment and media companies migrate to new models, especially those based on an ability to serve up advertising more accurately to consumers, the challenge will lie in how to manage the transition cost-effectively.
As the reshaped landscape emerges, opportunities for entertainment and media as a whole are growing. Despiteand partly because ofthe immediate economic challenges, the momentum behind digital migration is growing. Media currently experiencing declining revenues are not doing so because of declining demand. In fact, demand for entertainment and media appears to be increasing. What has changed in some cases is the ability to monetize that demand. Recorded music is a good example: the content is more ubiquitous than ever, but revenues are falling. This is why there will be no place to hide from new models and dynamics across the industry. And the winners will be those players who focus on driving and leading change that delivers real value for consumers. The models that will emerge during the next two years should ensure that the entertainment and media segment is well positioned to exploit the economic upturn from 2011, albeit from a slightly lower base than in 2008. By 2011, segments will have consolidated, the least loyal customers will have already left, higher-quality product will be valued by both consumers and advertisers, and digital distribution will have become mainstream, commanding fees more in line with its value. At the same time, a growing economy will stimulate spending. But for each of the industrys diverse segments to participate fully in that growth, each will first need to embrace the digital future.
In the past, E&M was characterized by a handful of generic models. In the future, revenue models will be diverse, more targeted, and developed on a bespoke basis for the specific purpose and circumstances.
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1,134,724 1,206,676 1,287,476 1,373,941 1,408,950 1,354,068 1,359,495 1,411,788 1,506,409 1,613,173
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Entertainment and media lagged nominal GDP growth during the past two years and will grow at a slower rate than the overall economy during the next three years. In general, the E&M market is income elastic, which means it tends to grow faster than the economy when the economy is expanding, and slower than the economy when the economy is sluggish or contracting. That pattern reflects the fact that E&M spending largely reflects discretionary spending, which rises more than proportionally to the economy as a whole when incomes rise but falls more than proportionally when discretionary income is squeezed.
Internet access
Internet access is not an entertainment and media segment in itself, but it is a key driver of entertainment and media spending in most segments. Figures do not include the purchasing of E&M content such as music. Spending on E&M content downloaded over the Internet or through mobile phones is included in the respective entertainment and media segments. The Internet access market rose by 12.7 percent in 2008, continuing its trend of double-digit annual increases. We expect growth to moderate during the next two years to 5.4 percent annual increases as the adverse economy slows take-up rates for broadband. Once economic conditions have improved, we look for a return to doubledigit annual gains during 201113. Increased broadband penetration will boost wired access, and wireless network upgrades and 3G rollouts will drive mobile access. Spending will rise from $215 billion in 2008 to $334 billion in 2013, a 9.2 percent compound annual increase.
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Advertising
We project global advertising to fall by 12.1 percent in 2009. Except for a fledgling video game advertising market, each segment, including Internet advertising, will decline in 2009. We expect decreases to extend to 2010 for consumer magazines, trade magazines, and out-of-home advertising, while declines will continue through 2011 for newspapers, radio, and directories. During 201213, each segment will expand as economic conditions improve. Internet advertising will return to double-digit increases during 201213 and will average 7.7 percent compounded annually for the five-year forecast period as a whole. The Internet will constitute 19 percent of global advertising in 2013 compared with 12 percent in 2008 and only 4 percent in 2004.
A small video game advertising sector will increase at a 13.8 percent compound annual rate to $2.6 billion in 2013. Out-of-home advertising will be the only other segment to be larger in 2013 than in 2008, growing at a 1.1 percent compound annual rate to $30.5 billion. Digital billboards are expanding the effective inventory by allowing the same display to be sold to multiple advertisers. Television will be flat, at $168 billion, which understates underlying growth because 2008 was boosted by advertising associated with the Beijing Summer Olympics, while 2013 will not have Olympics-related advertising. Consumer magazines, newspapers, radio, directories, and trade magazines will each be lower in 2013 than in 2008. Overall global advertising will decline at a 0.5 percent compound annual rate from $479 billion in 2008 to $467 billion in 2013.
Note: Each of newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in its respective segment and also in the Internet advertising segment, but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Consumer/end-user spending
Global consumer/end-user spending will decline by 1.2 percent in 2009 as decreases in recorded music, consumer magazines, newspapers, consumer and educational books, and business-to-business publishing offset gains in TV subscriptions and license fees, filmed entertainment, and video games. Newspapers and consumer and educational books will continue to decline through 2010. Consumer magazines and business-tobusiness publishing will continue to fall through 2011, while recorded music, which has been declining since 2004, will continue that trend through 2012 before finally posting an increase in 2013. Video games will be the fastest-growing segment during the next five years, with a 7.2 percent compound annual increase, boosted by growth in online and wireless games
and in the next generation of consoles. TV subscriptions and license fees will be the next fastest, with a projected 6.3 percent increase compounded annually, fueled by growth in subscription households, the entrance of telephone companies into TV distribution, and an expanding video-on-demand market once the economy improves. Filmed entertainment will grow at a 4 percent compound annual rate, boosted by the proliferation of digital cinemas and 3-D films and by an emerging HD video market. Radio will rise at a 3.3 percent compound annual rate, the result of an expanding satellite radio market in North America and growing public radio license fees. The remaining segments will each grow by less than 1 percent compounded annually or will decrease. Overall spending will rise from $715 billion in 2008 to $812 billion in 2013, a 2.6 percent compound annual increase.
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1,135,020 1,206,983 1,287,656 1,374,465 1,408,620 1,353,768 1,358,277 1,410,111 1,503,929 1,610,086
Note: Each of newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in its respective segment and also in the Internet advertising segment, but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Internet access
Global Internet access, which comprises both wired and mobile access, rose by 12.7 percent in 2008. Growth will drop to mid single digits during the next two years because of a slower migration rate from dial-up to broadband, a slower take-up rate for high-speed broadband services in the near term, and increased competition that will lower average spending per subscriber. Over the longer run, penetration into rural areas and faster broadband speeds will accelerate the migration to broadband. Wireless network upgrades, the further rollout of enhanced wireless, and increased penetration of smart phones with touch-screen capabilities will stimulate demand for mobile applications
and drive even further demand for high-speed Internet access, returning to a pattern of double-digit annual growth. Wired broadband access will increase at a 9.3 percent compound annual rate to $206 billion in 2013. Broadband growth is coming at the expense of dial-up, which will decline at an 11.9 percent compound annual rate to only $16 billion in 2013. Nearly three-quarters of total mobile access spending in 2008 was generated by Japan, South Korea, and the Peoples Republic of China. Mobile access will expand by 16.5 percent compounded annually to $111 billion in 2013. The overall access market will increase at a 9.2 percent compound annual rate to $334 billion in 2013.
Global Internet access market: wired and mobile by region (US$ millions)
Region North America % Change EMEA % Change Asia Pacific % Change Latin America % Change Total % Change 2004 26,619 8.2 44,709 16.1 35,644 43.4 3,398 30.5 110,370 21.9 2005 29,990 12.7 52,370 17.1 49,756 39.6 4,472 31.6 136,588 23.8 2006 34,282 14.3 61,974 18.3 60,219 21.0 5,919 32.4 162,394 18.9 2007 40,962 19.5 71,608 15.5 70,224 16.6 7,631 28.9 190,425 17.3 2008p 44,049 7.5 80,344 12.2 81,291 15.8 8,917 16.9 214,601 12.7 2009 45,597 3.5 84,100 4.7 86,940 6.9 9,584 7.5 226,221 5.4 2010 47,319 3.8 88,855 5.7 91,837 5.6 10,439 8.9 238,450 5.4 2011 52,503 11.0 99,160 11.6 98,496 7.3 12,201 16.9 262,360 10.0 2012 60,497 15.2 114,086 15.1 107,164 8.8 14,640 20.0 296,387 13.0 2013 68,294 12.9 131,356 15.1 116,598 8.8 17,380 18.7 333,628 12.6 9.2 14.3 7.5 10.3 9.2 200913 CAGR
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Global Internet access market: wired and mobile by component (US$ millions)
Component Dial-up % Change Broadband % Change Total wired Internet access % Change Mobile access % Change Total % Change 2004 42,920 11.3 54,350 44.3 97,270 13.0 13,100 190.1 110,370 21.9 2005 39,111 8.9 72,719 33.8 111,830 15.0 24,758 89.0 136,588 23.8 2006 34,169 12.6 92,891 27.7 127,060 13.6 35,334 42.7 162,394 18.9 2007 32,089 6.1 114,830 23.6 146,919 15.6 43,506 23.1 190,425 17.3 2008p 30,542 4.8 132,058 15.0 162,600 10.7 52,001 19.5 214,601 12.7 2009 28,363 7.1 138,618 5.0 166,981 2.7 59,240 13.9 226,221 5.4 2010 25,656 9.5 146,837 5.9 172,493 3.3 65,957 11.3 238,450 5.4 2011 22,831 11.0 162,641 10.8 185,472 7.5 76,888 16.6 262,360 10.0 2012 19,534 14.4 184,285 13.3 203,819 9.9 92,568 20.4 296,387 13.0 2013 16,245 16.8 205,949 11.8 222,194 9.0 111,434 20.4 333,628 12.6 9.2 16.5 6.4 9.3 11.9 200913 CAGR
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Internet advertising
Global Internet advertising, including (1) advertising on Web sites accessed by a computer and (2) mobile sites intended for access by mobile phones, rose by 15.6 percent in 2008, a slowdown from annual gains in excess of 30 percent during the prior four years. The economic downturn will cut into growth during the next two years. Display and classified advertising will be hurt most by the recession, while search and video advertising will hold up better. The anticipated economic recovery will lead to a return to double-digit growth during 201213. In addition to the economy, broadband household growth will be the
principal driver of wired Internet advertising. In the mobile market, wireless network upgrades, growth in mobile access subscribers, increasing penetration of Internetenabled smart phones, and the expansion of mobile television will drive mobile advertising. We project global wired advertising to expand at a 6.7 percent compound annual rate to $78 billion in 2013. Mobile advertising will rise from $3.8 billion in 2008 to $9.2 billion in 2013, a 19.7 percent compound annual increase. Global Internet advertising as a whole will increase to $87 billion in 2013, growing at a 7.7 percent compound annual rate from $60 billion in 2008.
Global Internet advertising market: wired and mobile by region (US$ millions)
Region North America % Change EMEA % Change Asia Pacific % Change Latin America % Change Total % Change 2004 10,069 33.8 4,760 59.9 2,940 57.8 153 45.7 17,922 43.7 2005 13,264 31.7 7,585 59.3 5,687 93.4 259 69.3 26,795 49.5 2006 18,149 36.8 12,524 65.1 7,685 35.1 338 30.5 38,696 44.4 2007 23,115 27.4 17,799 42.1 10,359 34.8 540 59.8 51,813 33.9 2008p 26,284 13.7 20,427 14.8 12,502 20.7 660 22.2 59,873 15.6 2009 25,459 3.1 19,533 4.4 13,019 4.1 706 7.0 58,717 1.9 2010 25,844 1.5 19,929 2.0 13,698 5.2 770 9.1 60,241 2.6 2011 27,697 7.2 21,829 9.5 15,211 11.0 917 19.1 65,654 9.0 2012 31,196 12.6 24,637 12.9 17,977 18.2 1,162 26.7 74,972 14.2 2013 35,918 15.1 28,106 14.1 21,230 18.1 1,474 26.9 86,728 15.7 7.7 17.4 11.2 6.6 6.4 200913 CAGR
Global Internet advertising market: wired and mobile by component (US$ millions)
Component Wired Internet advertising % Change Mobile advertising % Change Total % Change 2004 17,604 42.7 318 140.9 17,922 43.7 2005 26,079 48.1 716 125.2 26,795 49.5 2006 37,407 43.4 1,289 80.0 38,696 44.4 2007 49,692 32.8 2,121 64.5 51,813 33.9 2008p 56,111 12.9 3,762 77.4 59,873 15.6 2009 54,695 2.5 4,022 6.9 58,717 1.9 2010 55,756 1.9 4,485 11.5 60,241 2.6 2011 60,242 8.0 5,412 20.7 65,654 9.0 2012 68,003 12.9 6,969 28.8 74,972 14.2 2013 77,502 14.0 9,226 32.4 86,728 15.7 7.7 19.7 6.7 200913 CAGR
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percent annually during 201113, averaging 14.7 percent compounded annually during the entire five-year forecast periodin the process, cannibalizing pay-per-view. Mobile TV will be the fastest-growing component, with a 34.6 percent compound annual increase from a small base, although free mobile TV services will cut into the potential for subscription spending on mobile television. In EMEA, free digital terrestrial television services will limit subscription spending. We expect the total market, including public TV license fees in EMEA and Asia Pacific, to reach $252 billion in 2013, a 6.3 percent compound annual increase from 2008.
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Television advertising
The TV advertising market rose by 1.2 percent in 2008, the slowest gain during the past five years despite the infusion of advertising associated with the Beijing Olympics. The economic decline during the latter part of the year was the cause of the slowdown. The adverse economy will lead to an 11.4 percent decline in 2009 and will keep spending low during 201011, with an improvement in the economic environment contributing to the recovery during 201213. Multichannel advertising will be the fastest-growing sector in each region, buoyed by large increases in digital households and viewing-share gains for cable, satellite
channels, and digital terrestrial television channels. Multichannel advertising will fall by 7.1 percent in 2009 and then rebound, averaging 3.8 percent compounded annually to $52 billion in 2013. Terrestrial broadcast advertising will fall by 13 percent in 2009 and will continue to decline through 2011, averaging a 1.5 percent compound annual decrease through 2013. Spending will total $116 billion in 2013 from $125 billion in 2008. Highdefinition television will boost advertising on free-to-air channels once the underlying economic environment improves. We project total television advertising to be flat during the next five years, returning to its $168-billion level in 2013.
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Recorded music
The global recorded music market fell by 9.8 percent in 2008, its steepest decline during the past five years. Spending on physical formats fell by 17.3 percent, offsetting a 22.4 percent rise in digital formats. Physical distribution will decline in each region because of competition from legitimate digital services and piracy. We expect spending on physical formats to fall by 49 percent during the next five years to $11.3 billion from $22 billion in 2008. The digital market is dominated by Internet distribution in North America and EMEA and by mobile distribution in Asia Pacific and Latin America. The availability of music without copyright protection software and a growing broadband universe will boost Internet distribution. Internet distribution will more than double to $8.8 billion in 2013, growing at a 21.2 percent compound annual rate from $3.4 billion in 2008. Bundled services, low-cost or free mobile music, and side loading from lower-cost Internet services will cut into the paid mobile music market in North America and EMEA. Over time, the mobile music market will evolve into a subscription-based
service. In Asia Pacific and Latin America, mobile music faces less competition from Internet distribution, which will continue to be hampered by high piracy rates. Wireless network upgrades and advanced handsets will fuel mobile music spending in those regions. We expect spending on music distributed to mobile phones to rise at a 7.1 percent compound annual rate to $6 billion in 2013 from $4.3 billion in 2008. Total spending on digital music will expand by 14.2 percent compounded annually to $14.8 billion. By 2012, the global digital market will have overtaken the global physical market, with the result that further declines in spending on physical formats will have a less adverse impact on total spending. We expect modest growth in total spending to begin in 2013. In North America and Asia Pacific, digital will surpass physical in 2011, while in EMEA and Latin America, physical will remain the largest component through 2013. We project that global spending during the next five years will fall at a 2.5 percent compound annual rate to $26.1 billion in 2013 from $29.6 billion in 2008.
Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Recording Industry Association of America, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Recording Industry Association of America, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Recording Industry Association of America, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Recording Industry Association of America, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Filmed entertainment
Filmed entertainment was flat in 2008, at $84 billion, as a 3.8 percent increase in box office spending offset a 1.8 percent drop in home video. Key factors affecting the market in any given year are the quality of releases and their appeal to consumersdevelopments we cannot predict. The underlying box office market will be enhanced by a growing share of 3-D releases that generate higher prices and higher ticket sales than standard 2-D films do. Modern theaters, digital cinemas, and more screens will also boost spending. The adverse economy will cut into physical sell-through in the near term. Over the longer run, growth in Blu-ray HD videos will offset a declining DVD market and propel overall sell-through. Rentals will benefit from a weak economy in the near term because their lower prices will be more attractive.
Over the longer run, competition from video-on-demand and online distribution will cut into in-store rentals. The convenience of online rental services will boost spending. Faster broadband speeds and devices that allow TV viewing will propel a small digital download market. Piracy will continue to hold down spending, particularly in Asia Pacific and Latin America. Filmed entertainment will be the only segment where we expect (1) faster growth in 2009 1.1 percentthan in 2008, the result of improved box office spending from a larger array of 3-D releases, and (2) a modest gain in rental spending as the recession leads consumers to low-cost rentals for entertainment. During the next five years, we expect the market to expand at a 4 percent compound annual rate to $102 billion in 2013.
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Video games
Video games was the fastest-growing segment in 2008, with an 18.2 percent increase. The current generation of consoles will drive the market for the next few years. We expect that by 2012, the next generation of consoles will begin to be introduced, which will spur renewed growth in console games. Console games will average 5.5 percent growth compounded annually. The online market is being driven by the rising penetration of broadband households as well as the current generation of consoles that feature online capabilities. The increasing popularity of massive multiplayer online games (MMOGs)with their subscription fees, in-game advertising, and micro transactionsis also aiding the growth of the market. Casual games represent a further important component of the online market, helping expand the demographic base and stimulate spending. We expect online games to increase at a 10.6 percent compound annual rate.
Newer mobile phone handsets that are capable of downloading games and that provide larger screens and better graphics will drive demand for wireless games, as will the growth of 3G networks that will provide an environment that enables wireless games to approach the quality of console games. We expect wireless games to grow at a 13.8 percent compound annual rate. PC games will continue to deteriorate as consumers turn their attention to newer technologies, although the market will be maintained by purchases of PC games that often are needed to play MMOGs. PC games will decrease at a 1.2 percent compound annual rate. Video game advertising is emerging as an additional revenue stream. The growth of the online game market will fuel growth in dynamic in-game advertising. Growth will average 13.8 percent compounded annually. We project the overall video game market to expand from $51 billion in 2008 to $74 billion in 2013, a 7.4 percent compound annual increase.
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at $30.2 billion in 2013, will be 2.3 percent lower on a compound annual basis from 2008. Total advertising will decrease by 1.1 percent compounded annually during the next five years. Newsstand sales will be vulnerable to the economic cycle in many countries during the next two years, and subscription sales will be at risk as well when they are due for renewal. Rising discretionary income during the latter part of the forecast period will lead to a rebound in circulation spending. Circulation spending will decline through 2011 and will average a 0.7 percent compound annual decrease through 2013. We project consumer magazine publishing to contract at a 0.9 percent compound annual rate to $77 billion in 2013 from $80 billion in 2008.
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Newspaper publishing
Newspaper publishing fell by 4.7 percent in 2008, the result of an 8.7 percent drop in print advertising. We expect a steeper, 17.3 percent decline in 2009, with a cumulative 24.3 percent decrease through 2011. Print advertising in 2011 will be 32 percent lower than in 2006. In addition to the impact of the economy, the continuing migration of advertisingparticularly classified advertisingto the Internet will hurt print advertising over the long run. Nevertheless, improved economic conditions in 201213 will lead to a modest rebound in print
advertising, albeit from a much lower base. Even so, print advertising in 2013 will be 20.4 percent lower in 2013 than in 2008. Rising Web site traffic will boost digital advertising once economic conditions have improved. In digital advertising during the next five years, we project a 6.8 percent gain compounded annually. Overall newspaper advertising will fall at a 3.7 percent compound annual rate. Circulation spending will be relatively flat because declines in paid circulation in North America and EMEA will be offset by increases in Latin America and Asia Pacific. The overall newspaper market will decline from $182 billion in 2008 to $165 billion in 2013, a 2 percent compound annual decrease.
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growing competition from the Internet, but satellite radio will boost spending in North America. Modest increases in public radio license fees will help stabilize the radio markets in EMEA and Asia Pacific. We expect out-of-home advertising to expand at a 1.1 percent compound annual rate during the next five years to $30 billion in 2013 from $29 billion in 2008. We project that radio will decrease at a 0.7 percent compound annual rate from $49 billion in 2008 to $47 billion in 2013. The overall radio and out-of-home market will be flat, at $78 billion, as near-term decreases are offset by expansion during 201113.
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Among educational books, elementary and high school textbooks represent the most cyclically sensitive component, while college textbooks have a countercyclical element and will benefit from people returning to college to improve their job prospects while employment opportunities are limited. We expect print educational books to decrease during the next two years and then expand during the subsequent three years, rising to $43 billion in 2013, a 0.4 percent compound annual gain. Electronic books are growing at the college level, and we project a 36.9 percent compound annual increase during the next five years to $1.7 billion in 2013, boosting overall educational growth to 1 percent compounded annually. We project total spending to increase at a 0.6 percent compound annual rate to $118 billion in 2013 from $115 billion in 2008.
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Global consumer and educational book publishing market by region (US$ millions)
Region North America % Change EMEA % Change Asia Pacific % Change Latin America % Change Total % Change 2004 30,031 0.3 46,624 1.7 22,165 3.9 4,293 1.5 103,113 1.5 2005 32,211 7.3 48,624 4.3 23,001 3.8 4,399 2.5 108,235 5.0 2006 31,648 1.7 49,018 0.8 24,358 5.9 4,515 2.6 109,539 1.2 2007 33,778 6.7 50,671 3.4 26,413 8.4 4,652 3.0 115,514 5.5 2008p 32,592 3.5 50,277 0.8 27,625 4.6 4,772 2.6 115,266 0.2 2009 31,847 2.3 47,948 4.6 27,813 0.7 4,681 1.9 112,289 2.6 2010 31,773 0.2 46,979 2.0 28,252 1.6 4,630 1.1 111,634 0.6 2011 32,194 1.3 47,005 0.1 28,959 2.5 4,665 0.8 112,823 1.1 2012 32,850 2.0 47,689 1.5 29,874 3.2 4,776 2.4 115,189 2.1 2013 33,760 2.8 48,898 2.5 30,903 3.4 4,932 3.3 118,493 2.9 0.6 0.7 2.3 0.6 0.7 200913 CAGR
Global consumer and educational book publishing market by component (US$ millions)
Component Print/audio consumer books % Change Print educational books % Change Total print/audio % Change Electronic consumer books % Change Electronic educational books % Change Total electronic % Change Total consumer % Change Total educational % Change Total % Change 2004 64,750 1.4 38,127 1.6 102,877 1.4 81 72.3 155 52.0 236 58.4 64,831 1.4 38,282 1.7 103,113 1.5 2005 68,439 5.7 39,455 3.5 107,894 4.9 157 93.8 184 18.7 341 44.5 68,596 5.8 39,639 3.5 108,235 5.0 2006 69,085 0.9 39,921 1.2 109,006 1.0 303 93.0 230 25.0 533 56.3 69,388 1.2 40,151 1.3 109,539 1.2 2007 73,730 6.7 41,030 2.8 114,760 5.3 464 53.1 290 26.1 754 41.5 74,194 6.9 41,320 2.9 115,514 5.5 2008p 72,474 1.7 41,723 1.7 114,197 0.5 706 52.2 363 25.2 1,069 41.8 73,180 1.4 42,086 1.9 115,266 0.2 2009 70,082 3.3 40,914 1.9 110,996 2.8 864 22.4 429 18.2 1,293 21.0 70,946 3.1 41,343 1.8 112,289 2.6 2010 69,149 1.3 40,804 0.3 109,953 0.9 1,123 30.0 558 30.1 1,681 30.0 70,272 1.0 41,362 0.0 111,634 0.6 2011 69,542 0.6 41,061 0.6 110,603 0.6 1,473 31.2 747 33.9 2,220 32.1 71,015 1.1 41,808 1.1 112,823 1.1 2012 70,471 1.3 41,660 1.5 112,131 1.4 1,882 27.8 1,176 57.4 3,058 37.7 72,353 1.9 42,836 2.5 115,189 2.1 2013 71,920 2.1 42,514 2.0 114,434 2.1 2,315 23.0 1,744 48.3 4,059 32.7 74,235 2.6 44,258 3.3 118,493 2.9 0.6 1.0 0.3 30.6 36.9 26.8 0.0 0.4 0.2 200913 CAGR
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Business-to-business publishing
Business-to-business publishing includes business information, trade magazines, professional books, and directory advertising. Spending fell by 1.8 percent in 2008 as a result of the economic downturn, because each segment of the market is sensitive to the economy. A rebounding economy during the latter part of the forecast period will lead to rebounds in each category during 201213. In the near term, we expect spending to fall by 11.7 percent in 2009 and by a cumulative 17.7 percent through 2011. The business information market will be hurt by the financial collapse, which will lead to steep near-term declines in demand for financial information. Reduced consumer spending will hurt marketing information, and falling investment will lower spending on industry information. The overall business information market will fall at a 2.5 percent compound annual rate to $76 billion in 2013. Print directory advertising will be hurt in the near term by the recession and over the longer run by the migration of advertising from print to the Internet, falling by
6.5 percent compounded annually to $23 billion in 2013. Growth in digital directory advertising, projected at 14.9 percent on a compound annual basis, will not make up the difference, because online rates are much lower than print rates. Overall directory advertising will decrease at a 3.8 percent compound annual rate. Trade magazines will be adversely affected by the declining economy and falling employment. Print advertising in trade magazines will be affected by a shift of advertising to the Internet, some of which will be recaptured on trade magazine Web sites. The trade magazine market as a whole, including circulation spending, will decline at a 1.8 percent compound annual rate. Falling employment will also cut into spending on professional books in the near term, although growth in electronic books will offset declines in print. The overall professional book market will rise at a 0.2 percent rate compounded annually, the only component that will be higher in 2013 than in 2008. We expect the total businessto-business publishing market to fall at a 2.3 percent compound annual rate to $153 billion in 2013 from $172 billion in 2008.
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54
Note: Each of newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in its respective segment and also in the Internet advertising segment, but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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North America
Spending fell by 1.1 percent in 2008, and we expect a 7.1 percent drop in 2009 followed by a 1.2 percent decrease in 2010. We expect the market to rebound beginning in 2011 and to expand at rates of 6 percent or more during 201213. We expect increases in excess of 5 percent compounded annually for Internet access, Internet advertising, video games, and TV subscriptions. Recorded music, TV advertising, business-to-business publishing, newspaper publishing, consumer magazine
publishing, and radio/out-of-home will each be lower in 2013 than in 2008. Overall growth will average 1.3 percent compounded annually to $532 billion in 2013 from $499 billion in 2008. Canada will be the faster-growing country, with a projected 2.2 percent compound annual increase compared with 1.2 percent compound annual growth for the United States.
United States
E&M spending in the United States fell by 1.3 percent in 2008, and we expect a 7.3 percent decrease in 2009, the second steepest of any country in the world, behind Russia, and a further, 1.2 percent drop in 2010, for a three-year cumulative decline of 9.6 percent. A rebound during the latter part of the forecast period will generate a 1.2 percent compound annual advance for the 2009 13 period as a whole. Internet access at 9.1 percent compounded annually will be the fastest-growing segment during the next five years. We also expect increases in
excess of 5 percent compounded annually for video games, TV subscriptions, and Internet advertising. Filmed entertainment will increase at a 3.3 percent compound annual rate, and out-of-home advertising will grow at a 2.5 percent rate compounded annually. The remaining segments will increase by less than 1 percent on a compound annual basis or will decline. Overall consumer/ end-user spending will grow by 1.9 percent compounded annually, while advertising will fall at a 1.7 percent compound annual rate.
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Note: The total includes Internet access. Each of newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in its respective segment and also in the Internet advertising segment, but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Canada
We project the Canadian E&M market to decline by 4.9 percent in 2009 and to average 2.2 percent compound annual growth through 2013. Internet access at 9.9 percent compounded annually will be a major driver of that projected gain. Internet advertising will grow at an 8.6 percent compound annual rate, and video games will increase by 6.2 percent compounded annually. We also
anticipate above-average compound annual growth in filmed entertainment (4.2 percent) and TV subscriptions and license fees (3.8 percent). The remaining segments will increase at rates averaging less than 2 percent on a compound annual basis or will decline. Overall consumer/ end-user spending will average 2 percent growth compounded annually, while advertising will decrease at a 0.5 percent compound annual rate.
Note: The total includes Internet access. Each of newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in its respective segment and also in the Internet advertising segment, but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Internet access
Internet access spending growth slowed to 7.5 percent in 2008. We expect a further moderation during the next two years, with increases of less than 4 percent annually, and a return to double-digit growth during 201113. For the forecast period as a whole, spending will rise from
$44 billion in 2008 to $68 billion in 2013, a 9.2 percent compound annual increase. Canada will increase at a 9.9 percent compound annual rate during the next five years compared with 9.1 percent compound annual growth for the United States.
Advertising
Advertising fell by 4.5 percent in 2008. We anticipate a 14.7 percent drop in 2009 and an additional, 3.3 percent decrease in 2010. Although advertising will rebound during the subsequent three years, spending in 2013 will remain
1.6 percent lower on a compound annual basis compared with 2008. Internet advertising, out-of-home, and a small video game market will be the only segments to be larger in 2013 than in 2008. Overall advertising will decrease from $200 billion in 2008 to $184 billion in 2013.
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Note: Each of newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in its respective segment and also in the Internet advertising segment, but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Advertising in the United States fell by 4.8 percent in 2008 and will decrease by a projected 17.7 percent cumulatively during the next two years. For the forecast period as a whole, US advertising will decline at a 1.7 percent
compound annual rate. Canada held up better in 2008, with a 0.1 percent increase. We expect an 11.9 percent decline in 2009 and a 0.5 percent compound annual decrease through 2013.
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Consumer/end-user spending
Consumer/end-user growth slowed to 0.3 percent in 2008. We expect a 3 percent decline in 2009 and a further, 0.6 percent drop in 2010. Increases during the subsequent three years will boost spending to $280 billion in 2013, a 1.9 percent compound annual increase from $255 billion in 2008. Radio will be the fastest-growing component, with a 9.4 percent compound annual advance, boosted by a small but expanding satellite radio market. Video games
and TV subscriptions and license fees will expand by 5.4 percent compounded annually, and filmed entertainment will increase at a 3.4 percent compound annual rate. Consumer and educational books will grow by less than 1 percent on a compound annual basis, and the remaining segments will be lower in 2013 than in 2008. The United States and Canada will grow at comparable rates during the next five years: 1.9 percent compounded annually for the US and 2 percent for Canada.
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63
Entertainment and media spending rose by 2.8 percent in 2008, the slowest increase during the past five years. We expect a 3.7 percent decline in 2009, a flat market in 2010, and increases during the next three years to $596 billion in 2013, a 2.7 percent compound annual increase from $522 billion in 2008. Internet access, Internet advertising,
video games, and TV subscriptions and license fees will each grow at rates averaging more than 5 percent on a compound annual basis. Filmed entertainment will increase by a projected 3.7 percent compounded annually, while the remaining segments will either be flat or down.
Note: Each of newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in its respective segment and also in the Internet advertising segment, but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Germany has the largest E&M market in EMEA, at $96 billion in 2008, with the UK next, at $92 billion. France at $67 billion was the only other country above $50 billion in 2008. Led by Saudi Arabia/Pan Arab, Middle East/Africa will be the fastest-growing area in EMEA, with an 11.7
percent compound annual increase. Central and Eastern Europe will expand at a 4.5 percent compound annual rate, and Western Europe will average 1.9 percent growth compounded annually.
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Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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United Kingdom
Growth slowed to 1.5 percent in the UK in 2008, and we expect a cumulative 7.2 percent decline during the next two years because the economy is falling at a rapid rate. Although we expect a rebound beginning in 2010, Internet access, Internet advertising, TV subscriptions and license fees, filmed entertainment, and video games will be the only segments that will be larger in 2013 than in 2008. Consumer/end-user spending as a whole will
grow at a 1.7 percent compound annual rate during the next five years, and advertising as a whole will decline by 2.4 percent compounded annually. The projected 7.1 percent compound annual gain in Internet access will contribute to an increase in overall spending of 1.3 percent compounded annually to $98 billion in 2013. Video games will be the fastest-growing segment, with a 7.5 percent compound annual increase.
Note: The total includes Internet access. Each of newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in its respective segment and also in the Internet advertising segment, but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Germany
In Germany, the weak economy led to a 0.1 percent drop in entertainment and media spending in 2008. We expect spending to fall by an additional, 5.3 percent during the next two years. A subsequent 9.9 percent advance from 2010 to 2013 will leave spending only 0.8 percent higher on a compound annual basis in 2013 than in 2008. That gain will be attributed principally to a 4.7 percent compound annual increase in Internet access spending. Consumer/
end-user spending will grow by 0.9 percent compounded annually, and advertising will decline at a 1.8 percent compound annual rate. Video games will be the fastestgrowing segment, with a 5.8 percent compound annual gain. We also expect growth in Internet advertising, TV subscriptions and license fees, filmed entertainment, and radio. The remaining segments will be lower in 2013 than in 2008.
Note: The total includes Internet access. Each of newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in its respective segment and also in the Internet advertising segment, but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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France
We expect a more modest, 2.8 percent decrease in E&M spending in France during the next two years, the result of stronger growth in Internet access and TV subscriptions and license fees. Spending during the next five years will expand at a 2.3 percent compound annual rate, led by Internet access at 7.9 percent compounded annually, video games at 6.8 percent, TV subscriptions and license
fees at 6.0 percent, and Internet advertising at 5.3 percent on a compound annual basis. Filmed entertainment will expand at a 2.8 percent compound annual rate, newspapers will be flat, and the remaining segments will decline. Overall consumer/end-user spending will grow at a 1.9 percent compound annual rate, while advertising will decline by 1.4 percent compounded annually.
Note: The total includes Internet access. Each of newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in its respective segment and also in the Internet advertising segment, but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Russia
We expect a dramatic turnaround in Russia. After growing at double-digit annual rates during the past five years, spending on E&M will fall by 10.6 percent in 2009, the steepest decline of any country in the world. We expect a further drop in 2010 followed by a rebound in 2011 and a return to double-digit growth during 201213. During the next five years, growth will be led by a surging Internet market. Internet advertising will expand at a 20.6 percent compound annual rate, and Internet access spending will grow by 19.6 percent compounded annually. We also expect healthy growth in TV subscriptions and
license fees at 15.9 percent on a compound annual basis and 8.4 percent compound annual growth in filmed entertainment. On the other hand, we expect spending to be lower in 2013 than in 2008 for recorded music, consumer magazines, radio, out-of-home, consumer and educational book publishing, and business-to-business publishing. Consumer/end-user spending will increase at a 1.8 percent compound annual rate, while advertising will decline by 0.1 percent compounded annually. Buoyed by Internet access, the overall market will expand at a 3.7 percent rate compounded annually.
Note: The total includes Internet access. Each of newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in its respective segment and also in the Internet advertising segment, but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Internet access
Internet access growth will drop to mid-single-digit gains during the next two years following double-digit annual growth through 2008. We expect a return to double-digit
growth during 201113. Overall spending will rise from $80 billion in 2008 to $131 billion in 2013, a 10.3 percent compound annual increase.
Germany has the largest Internet access market in EMEA, at $13.9 billion in 2008, followed by France at $10.5 billion and the UK at $10.2 billion. Italy at $8.2 billion and Spain at $6 billion were the only other countries above $5 billion in 2008. Western Europe will expand at a 7
percent compound annual rate during the next five years. Central and Eastern Europe will grow by 17.5 percent compounded annually, and Middle East/Africa will increase at a 26.2 percent compound annual rate.
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2004 1,153 1,242 970 593 5,381 9,095 185 186 5,520 1,962 984 457 2,870 1,614 1,019 6,557 39,788 843 299 682 107 536 463 2,930 500 872 619 1,991 44,709
2005 1,328 1,395 1,117 679 6,617 10,121 236 183 6,194 2,250 1,115 568 3,442 1,707 1,352 7,839 46,143 1,017 391 740 207 738 542 3,635 595 1,254 743 2,592 52,370
2006 1,646 1,577 1,312 800 7,842 12,125 310 244 6,791 2,426 1,235 734 4,320 1,876 1,551 8,699 53,488 1,148 550 911 433 1,037 743 4,822 685 1,932 1,047 3,664 61,974
2007 1,823 1,783 1,495 894 9,288 13,228 432 307 7,529 2,722 1,350 851 5,081 2,152 1,696 9,545 60,176 1,352 732 1,147 585 1,626 1,157 6,599 752 2,905 1,176 4,833 71,608
2008p 1,952 1,947 1,613 967 10,505 13,900 681 412 8,176 2,854 1,489 934 5,979 2,160 1,743 10,208 65,520 1,435 795 1,393 607 2,656 1,436 8,322 794 4,201 1,507 6,502 80,344
2009 1,956 1,975 1,633 1,018 10,606 13,560 760 478 8,632 2,879 1,487 984 6,183 2,168 1,755 10,346 66,420 1,467 846 1,570 730 2,818 1,897 9,328 803 5,718 1,831 8,352 84,100
2010 1,986 2,043 1,679 1,117 10,965 13,697 860 511 8,928 2,939 1,489 1,016 6,577 2,188 1,775 10,555 68,325 1,488 906 1,782 787 3,012 2,340 10,315 811 7,266 2,138 10,215 88,855
2011 2,025 2,134 1,755 1,225 11,943 14,898 1,016 588 9,721 3,044 1,567 1,124 7,517 2,261 1,880 11,426 74,124 1,577 1,017 2,046 942 3,747 2,829 12,158 865 9,475 2,538 12,878 99,160
2012 2,162 2,270 1,870 1,354 13,593 16,462 1,173 661 10,634 3,229 1,651 1,270 9,167 2,404 2,017 12,784 82,701 1,759 1,195 2,478 1,168 4,961 3,427 14,988 947 12,302 3,148 16,397 114,086
2013 2,295 2,439 2,006 1,513 15,329 17,480 1,381 759 11,571 3,477 1,760 1,528 11,160 2,603 2,206 14,398 91,905 2,006 1,394 3,099 1,472 6,493 4,151 18,615 1,041 15,955 3,840 20,836 131,356
200913 CAGR 3.3 4.6 4.5 9.4 7.9 4.7 15.2 13.0 7.2 4.0 3.4 10.3 13.3 3.8 4.8 7.1 7.0 6.9 11.9 17.3 19.4 19.6 23.7 17.5 5.6 30.6 20.6 26.2 10.3
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Advertising
Advertising decreased by 0.4 percent in 2008 following gains of 8.4 percent during each of the prior two years. We project a 12.5 percent decline in 2009 and a 3.6 percent decrease in 2010. For the five-year period as a whole, advertising will fall at a 0.9 percent compound annual rate
to $150 billion in 2013 from $157 billion in 2008. A small video game segment will be the fastest-growing category, at 14.9 percent on a compound annual basis. Internet advertising will expand at a 6.6 percent compound annual rate, while the remaining segments will be flat or down.
Note: Each of newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in its respective segment and also in the Internet advertising segment, but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
The UK has the largest advertising market in EMEA, at $26 billion, with Germany next, at $24 billion in 2008. Italy was third, at $18 billion, followed by France at $14 billion and Russia and Spain at $11 billion each. Advertising in Western Europe will fall at a 1.5 percent compound
annual rate during the next five years. Central and Eastern Europe will average 0.5 percent on a compound annual basis, while Middle East/Africa will increase at a 3 percent compound annual rate.
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Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Consumer/end-user spending
Consumer/end-user spending rose by 2.3 percent in 2008, down from a 4.8 percent increase in 2007. We look for a 1.3 percent decline in 2009, a stable market in 2010, and modest growth during 201113. Spending will rise from $285 billion in 2008 to $314 billion in 2013, a 2 percent compound annual increase. Video games
will be the fastest-growing category, with a projected 6.6 percent compound annual increase. TV subscriptions will expand by 5.4 percent compounded annually, and filmed entertainment will grow at a 3.7 percent compound annual rate. Radio and newspapers will average less than 2 percent growth on a compound annual basis, while the remaining segments will be lower in 2013 than in 2008.
Germany and the UK were the largest markets in 2008, at $57 billion and $56 billion, respectively. France was next, at $43 billion, nearly twice the total for Italy, which was the next largest, at $23 billion. We expect comparable
increases during the next five years for each area of EMEA. Middle East/Africa will average 2.6 percent compounded annually compared with 1.9 percent for Central and Eastern Europe and 2 percent for Western Europe.
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2004 6,166 5,066 4,459 3,464 38,122 53,908 2,111 2,479 19,571 9,617 4,527 2,091 14,808 5,957 4,841 49,409 226,596 1,789 1,497 3,938 811 7,126 1,571 16,732 1,708 3,555 1,640 6,903 250,231
2005 6,328 5,213 4,642 3,384 39,248 54,698 2,156 2,575 20,410 9,748 4,776 2,139 15,175 6,106 4,903 50,997 232,498 1,989 1,547 4,174 886 7,652 1,691 17,939 1,746 3,717 1,758 7,221 257,658
2006 6,447 5,415 4,761 3,438 40,102 55,817 2,221 2,753 21,296 10,091 5,040 2,263 15,606 6,296 5,056 52,081 238,683 2,082 1,605 4,586 978 8,373 1,886 19,510 1,761 3,899 1,887 7,547 265,740
2007 6,752 5,608 4,928 3,537 42,449 57,206 2,329 2,974 22,761 10,589 5,338 2,369 16,048 6,614 5,136 54,503 249,141 2,197 1,637 4,992 1,104 9,315 2,029 21,274 1,815 4,212 2,001 8,028 278,443
2008p 6,885 5,758 4,971 3,523 43,154 57,410 2,367 3,062 23,395 10,973 5,511 2,510 16,652 6,713 5,269 55,606 253,759 2,259 1,668 5,341 1,169 10,076 2,171 22,684 1,849 4,332 2,100 8,281 284,724
2009 6,843 5,715 4,947 3,542 42,865 56,707 2,335 3,054 23,227 10,964 5,508 2,548 16,394 6,683 5,280 54,629 251,241 2,242 1,622 5,215 1,151 9,279 2,135 21,644 1,831 4,303 2,113 8,247 281,132
2010 6,922 5,758 5,040 3,552 42,856 56,370 2,330 3,074 23,557 11,094 5,533 2,619 16,415 6,816 5,360 54,384 251,680 2,257 1,599 5,174 1,143 9,293 2,153 21,619 1,835 4,319 2,153 8,307 281,606
2011 7,060 5,926 5,158 3,615 43,733 56,782 2,376 3,166 24,415 11,497 5,730 2,765 16,818 6,956 5,456 55,285 256,738 2,327 1,612 5,260 1,147 9,585 2,261 22,192 1,866 4,467 2,243 8,576 287,506
2012 7,252 6,183 5,340 3,716 45,390 58,052 2,469 3,343 26,034 12,133 5,918 2,991 17,614 7,158 5,675 57,613 266,881 2,436 1,671 5,419 1,170 10,174 2,418 23,288 1,912 4,664 2,378 8,954 299,123
2013 7,531 6,489 5,607 3,866 47,433 59,920 2,591 3,566 28,380 12,727 6,157 3,226 18,762 7,397 5,881 60,453 279,986 2,579 1,760 5,673 1,207 11,023 2,620 24,862 1,974 4,907 2,523 9,404 314,252
200913 CAGR 1.8 2.4 2.4 1.9 1.9 0.9 1.8 3.1 3.9 3.0 2.2 5.1 2.4 2.0 2.2 1.7 2.0 2.7 1.1 1.2 0.6 1.8 3.8 1.9 1.3 2.5 3.7 2.6 2.0
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Asia Pacific
Entertainment and media spending in Asia Pacific rose by 6.8 percent in 2008, down from a 9.5 percent advance in 2007. Asia Pacific will be the only region where we expect spending to grow in 2009, with a projected 0.2 percent increase. For the forecast period as a whole, spending will rise at a 4.5 percent compound annual rate to $413 billion in 2013 from $331 billion in 2008. Double-digit compound annual increases are projected for Internet advertising
and TV subscriptions and license fees. We look for video games to increase at a 9.4 percent compound annual rate and Internet access spending to grow by 7.5 percent compounded annually. Filmed entertainment will expand at a projected 5.7 percent rate compounded annually. The remaining segments will post increases averaging less than 3 percent on a compound annual basis or will decline.
Note: Each of newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in its respective segment and also in the Internet advertising segment, but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Japan at $149 billion is by far the dominant country, accounting for 45 percent of total spending in Asia Pacific in 2008 and the second-largest country in the world, behind the United States. Excluding Japan, E&M spending in Asia Pacific will increase at a projected 7.1 percent
compound annual rate. The PRC is second, at $70 billion, less than half the size of Japan. South Korea at $34 billion, Australia at $23 billion, and India at $15 billion were other countries above $10 billion in 2008.
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Japan
A weak economy will lead to decreases in E&M spending during the next two years and sluggish growth through 2013, averaging only 1 percent compounded annually. Internet advertising, video games, and TV subscriptions and license fees will be relatively healthy, with compound annual increases of 8.7 percent, 7.4 percent, and 5.3 percent, respectively. Filmed entertainment will grow at a 3.6 percent compound annual rate, while Internet access
spending will advance by 2.8 percent compounded annually. Japan will be one of the few countries with higher recorded music spending in 2013 than in 2008, principally the result of a large mobile music market. Consumer and educational book publishing will be the only other segment that will be larger in 2013 than in 2008. Consumer/enduser spending will grow at a 1.2 percent compound annual rate, while advertising will decline by 2 percent on a compound annual basis.
Note: The total includes Internet access. Each of newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in its respective segment and also in the Internet advertising segment, but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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China
The PRC, by contrast, will continue to be among the faster-growing countries in 2009, with a projected 7.1 percent increase, although that gain will be well below the double-digit annual growth during the past five years. Double-digit annual gains during the next five years are projected for Internet access, Internet advertising, TV
subscriptions and license fees, recorded music, filmed entertainment, and video games. Overall consumer/enduser spending will increase at an 8.7 percent compound annual rate, and advertising will expand by 7.5 percent compounded annually. Overall spending, including Internet access, will rise at a 9.5 percent compound annual rate during the next five years.
Note: The total includes Internet access. Each of newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in its respective segment and also in the Internet advertising segment, but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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India
We expect even faster growth in India, with an 8.2 percent gain in 2009 and a 10.7 percent compound annual increase through 2013. Double-digit annual growth is projected for each segment except recorded music, consumer magazines,
newspaper publishing, consumer and educational book publishing, and business-to-business publishing. Overall consumer/end-user spending will increase at a 9.1 percent compound annual rate, and advertising will grow by 10.1 percent compounded annually.
Note: The total includes Internet access. Each of newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in its respective segment and also in the Internet advertising segment, but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Internet access
Internet access growth will drop to single digits beginning in 2009 following years of double-digit increases. Growth through 2013 will average 7.5 percent compounded annually to $117 billion from $81 billion in 2008.
Japan, the PRC, and South Korea are the dominant countries, with spending at $38 billion, $20 billion, and $13 billion, respectively, in 2008. Australia at $2 billion and Taiwan at $1.4 billion were the only other countries above $1 billion. The top five countries in 2008 accounted for 91 percent of total access spending in Asia Pacific.
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Advertising
Advertising growth slowed to 2.8 percent in 2008 from increases in excess of 6 percent during each of the prior four years. We expect a 7.8 percent decrease in 2009 and a further, 0.4 percent drop in 2010. A subsequent rebound will raise advertising to $110 billion in 2013, a 1.7 percent compound annual increase from $101 billion in 2008.
We project a 14.6 percent compound annual increase for a small video game market and 11.2 percent growth compounded annually for Internet advertising. Out-ofhome will expand at a projected 3.5 percent compound annual rate, with the remaining segments either growing by less than 1 percent compounded annually or declining.
Note: Each of newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in its respective segment and also in the Internet advertising segment, but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Japan at $43 billion in 2008 was the leading country, with the PRC second, at $20 billion, and Australia third, at $11 billion, together accounting for 74 percent of total
advertising in Asia Pacific. Excluding Japan, advertising growth for the remaining countries during the next five years will average 4.2 percent on a compound annual basis.
Consumer/end-user spending
Consumer/end-user spending rose by 5.1 percent in 2008, down from the gains during 200607 but comparable to the increases during 200405. We expect a slower, 1.9 percent advance in 2009 with steady improvement thereafter. For the forecast period as a whole, growth will average 4.6 percent compounded annually from $149 billion in 2008 to $186 billion in 2013. We project TV subscriptions and license fees to expand at a 10.5 percent compound annual rate, video games by 9.4
percent compounded annually, and filmed entertainment by 5.7 percent on a compound annual basis. Growth in the remaining segments will be 2.3 percent or less compounded annually, and spending on consumer magazines will be a bit lower in 2013 than in 2008. Japan at $68 billion in 2008 was more than twice that of the PRC, which was second, at $30 billion. South Korea totaled $15 billion, with Australia and India next at $10 billion and $9 billion, respectively.
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Latin America
Latin America was the fast-growing region in 2008, with a 10.1 percent increase. We expect the recession to lead to a significant turnaround and a 1 percent decline in 2009. We look for accelerating increases thereafter and a return to double-digit growth in 2013. Spending will rise from $57 billion in 2008 to $73 billion in 2013, a 5.1 percent compound annual increase. We expect doubledigit compound annual growth in Internet advertising and
Internet access spending and a 9.2 percent compound annual gain in video games. TV subscriptions will expand at a 6.5 percent compound annual rate, and filmed entertainment will grow by 4.5 percent compounded annually. The remaining segments will average less than 2 percent annually, and recorded music will be lower in 2013 than in 2008.
Note: Each of newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in its respective segment and also in the Internet advertising segment, but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Brazil and Mexico are the dominant countries, at $26 billion and $14 billion, respectively, in 2008,
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Brazil
After Brazils growth at double-digit annual rates during each of the past five years, we expect spending to fall by 1.3 percent in 2009 and to remain weak through 2010 before rebounding with mid- to high-single-digit increases during the subsequent three years. Growth will average 4.6 percent compounded annually during the entire forecast
period, led by double-digit compound annual increases in Internet access and Internet advertising and a 9.2 percent rise in video games on a compound annual basis. Consumer/end-user spending will expand at a 3.3 percent compound annual rate, and advertising will grow by 2.4 percent compounded annually.
Note: The total includes Internet access. Each of newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in its respective segment and also in the Internet advertising segment, but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Internet access
Internet access spending will rise from $9 billion in 2008 to $17 billion in 2013, a 14.3 percent compound annual increase. Growth will dip to high single digits during the
next two years and then return to double-digit gains during 201113. Brazil is the leader, at $4 billion in 2008, with Mexico and Argentina each at less than $2 billion.
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Advertising
Advertising will fall by a projected 6.5 percent in 2009, representing a 17.5-percentage-point turnaround from an 11 percent increase in 2008. We expect a further, 1.2 percent decrease in 2010 and a recovery thereafter. Growth for the five-year forecast period will average 1.9 percent compounded annually to $23 billion in 2013 from $21 billion in 2008. Internet advertising will expand at a projected 17.4 percent compound annual rate, and
a tiny video game advertising market will increase by 15.4 percent on a compound annual basis. Out-of-home will grow by 3.5 percent compounded annually, and the remaining segments will expand by less than 2 percent compounded annually. Brazil was the leader in 2008, at $9 billion, with Mexico next, at $6 billion, together constituting 73 percent of the market in Latin America.
Note: Each of newspaper, consumer magazine, trade magazine, and directory Web site and mobile advertising is included in its respective segment and also in the Internet advertising segment, but only once in the overall total. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Consumer/end-user spending
Consumer/end-user spending rose by 7.3 percent in 2008, down from an 8.5 percent increase in 2007 but equal to or higher than the gains during 200406. We expect growth to slow to 0.5 percent and to remain sluggish through 2011. Spending will rise to $32 billion in 2013 from $27 billion in 2008, a 3.9 percent compound annual increase. Video games at 9.1 percent compounded annually and TV subscriptions and license fees at 6.5 percent will
be the fastest-growing categories, followed by filmed entertainment at 4.5 percent and newspapers at 2.5 percent. The remaining segments will grow by 1 percent or less compounded annually, and recorded music will decline at a 0.4 percent compound annual rate. Brazil at $13 billion and Mexico at $6 billion were the leading countries in 2008, accounting for 72 percent of the total.
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Methodology
How we derive the data
Historical information Historical information is obtained principally from confidential and proprietary sources. In instances where third-party sources are consulted and their information is used directlyfrom such sources as government agencies, trade associations, and related entities that seek to have their data disseminated in the public domain the sources of such information are explicitly cited. In instances where the information is used indirectly, as part of the calculus for the historical data, the sources are proprietary. Forecast information Recent trends in industry performance are analyzed, and the factors underlying those trends are identified. The factors considered are certain economic, demographic, technological, institutional, behavioral, competitive, and other drivers that may affect each of the entertainment and media markets. Models are then developed to quantify the impact of each factor on industry spending. A forecast scenario for each causative factor is then created, and the contribution of each factor on a prospective basis is identified. These proprietary mathematical models and analytic algorithms are used in the process to provide an initial array of prospective values. Our professional expertise and institutional knowledge are then applied to review and adjust those values if required. The entire process is then examined for internal consistency and transparency vis-vis prevailing industry wisdom. Forecasts for 20092013 are also based on an analysis of the dynamics of each segment in each region and on the factors that affect those dynamics. We provide compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) that cover the 20092013 forecast period. In the calculation of CAGRs, 2008 is the beginning year, with five growth years during the forecast period: 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013. The end year is 2013. The formula is: CAGR = 100 * ((Value in 2013 Value in 2008) ^ (1 5) 1)
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Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Figures are estimated in US$.
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2004 4.3 5.4 4.7 4.4 4.1 2.2 8.1 6.8 4.2 3.0 9.3 4.0 7.4 4.4 3.1 5.9 4.4 9.2 9.4 9.7 26.9 37.1 29.4 23.8 5.1 18.2 10.7 14.4 6.6
2005 5.1 4.2 5.6 3.3 4.0 1.5 7.2 8.9 2.7 4.5 11.6 3.4 8.0 4.2 2.7 4.2 4.0 6.0 6.4 6.3 30.9 29.2 23.2 19.7 6.3 24.7 10.4 18.8 6.3
2006 5.2 5.0 6.0 6.1 4.7 3.5 7.8 9.3 3.6 5.2 11.1 4.1 8.0 6.0 4.9 5.7 5.1 7.8 8.0 7.8 23.4 29.3 9.9 17.5 7.5 14.7 13.0 13.4 7.0
2007 5.3 4.4 3.3 7.0 3.3 4.6 7.0 7.5 3.7 5.0 5.9 4.9 7.0 6.0 3.5 6.2 4.9 10.4 6.8 9.7 28.0 30.4 23.8 22.6 5.0 10.0 12.6 9.9 7.4
2008 4.6 5.1 2.1 5.5 4.0 4.1 6.8 1.4 2.8 4.2 5.4 2.6 5.5 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.1 9.7 6.6 8.8 15.4 19.0 11.5 14.4 5.1 18.8 14.3 16.2 6.3
2009 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 1.7 1.9 3.4 1.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 2.3 1.0 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.8 2.9 4.0 2.7 1.2 2.9 3.8 2.9 0.2
2010 2.6 2.5 1.9 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.6 1.4 1.9 0.9 3.5 3.0 2.0 2.4 2.2 1.5 1.9 2.6 2.1 3.2 5.4 6.0 6.3 5.3 2.9 6.5 5.5 5.9 2.7
2011 3.8 3.5 3.1 3.8 2.8 2.5 5.7 4.2 2.8 3.4 5.0 4.2 4.5 4.1 3.4 3.6 3.3 6.1 3.4 4.2 7.7 7.5 8.0 6.9 4.5 8.7 7.2 7.9 4.2
2012 4.8 4.5 4.5 5.6 4.5 4.2 6.8 5.6 4.0 4.1 5.2 4.5 5.6 4.4 3.3 4.2 4.5 6.7 4.5 6.0 8.1 8.3 8.6 7.8 4.9 9.6 8.6 8.9 5.4
2013 5.1 5.3 5.7 7.0 4.5 4.7 6.3 7.0 4.5 4.5 5.1 4.3 5.9 4.8 3.2 4.6 4.9 6.3 5.6 6.6 7.5 9.0 8.9 8.3 5.7 9.5 9.9 9.2 5.8
200913 CAGR 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.4 2.6 2.3 4.7 2.9 2.4 2.6 3.6 3.3 3.5 3.1 2.3 2.3 2.7 4.4 2.9 4.3 6.3 6.7 7.1 6.2 3.8 7.4 7.0 6.9 3.5
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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102 Summary 103 North America 112 Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA) 129 Asia Pacific 142 Latin America
Summary
Principal drivers
The global economic downturn during 200910 will reduce growth during the next two years to mid-single-digit increases following double-digit annual gains during the past five years. We look for growth to return to double digits during 201113 as economic conditions improve. The near-term slowdown will occur because of a slower migration rate from dial-up to broadband, a slower takeup rate for high-speed services in the near term, and increased competition that will lower average spending per subscriber. Over the longer run, penetration into rural areas and faster broadband speeds will accelerate the migration to broadband. Increased fiber deployments in the Internet backbone and fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) deployments will increase broadband speeds, making it more suitable for high-volume video applications. Wireless network upgrades; the further rollout of enhanced third-generation (3G) cellular wireless servicesnotably, high-speed packet access (HSPA); and increased penetration of smart phones with touch-screen capabilities will stimulate demand for mobile applications and drive even further demand for high-speed Internet access.
Data for the global Internet access spending market by region and for the global Internet access spending market by component can be found within the Executive Summary on pages 34 and 35.
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North America
Overview
We project Internet wired and mobile access spending will grow by 9.2 percent compounded annually, reaching $68.3 billion in 2013. Wired broadband access will increase to $53.2 billion, a 7.1 percent compound annual advance. Wired dial-up access spending will decline to $2 billion from $5.1 billion in 2008, a 17 percent drop compounded annually. Overall wired Internet access spending will grow by 5.2 percent compounded annually from $42.8 billion to $55.2 billion in 2013. Mobile access will total $13.1 billion in 2013 from $1.2 billion in 2008, a 60.9 percent compound annual increase from a small base.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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In terms of overall spending growth, including mobile access, Canada will be the country with the faster growth during the next five years, with a projected 9.9 percent compound annual increase compared with 9.1 percent for the United States. Both countries will record single-digit increases during the next two years, reflecting the impact of the weak
economy, and then will expand at double-digit annual rates during 201113, as economic conditions improve and as mobile access gains momentum. The United States will expand from $40.6 billion in 2008 to $62.7 billion in 2013, while Canada will rise to $5.6 billion from $3.5 billion.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Broadband
Broadband, or high-speed, Internet access is not only an appealing service for its own sake; it is also a critical element in triple-play packages, where it is provided together with television and telephone services. Telephone companies and cable operators have been in head-to-head competition in the broadband market for years. Since 2005, telephone companies have been distributing television services in their own triple-play packages, in the process making the broadband market even more competitive. The nature of the competition has evolved from being pricecentricwhereby cable and telephone companies offer steep discounts to lure broadband subscribers away from the competitionto speedcentric, with providers now featuring high-speed options. In the United States, Verizon is focusing on its higherend Fiber Optic Service (FiOS), which uses FTTH technology and can provide download speeds of up to 50 megabits per second or more. At 50 Mbps, a standard movie can be downloaded in about five minutes, a CD in 10 seconds, and a half-hour television show in less than a minute. Verizon also extended the availability of its 7.1 Mbps digital-subscriber-line (DSL) service to 6.6 million homes, twice its reach in June.
AT&T began offering an 18 Mbps service to its U-verse television subscribers, which was well in excess of its previous top speed of 10 Mbps. Cable operators in the United States responded with their own high-speed options. Comcast in April 2008 launched in the MinneapolisSt. Paul market the first Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification (DOCSIS) 3.0 service in the United States. DOCSIS 3.0 provides much faster download speeds. Comcast expects to be able to provide download speeds of up to 100 Mbps within the next two years. Charter Communications, Cox Cable, and Time Warner Cable plan to introduce DOCSIS 3.0 in 2009. Comcast also launched Extreme 50, a new service that offers download speeds of 50 Mbps in several areas in Oregon and Washington. It also offers a lower-speed service called Ultra that provides 22 Mbps downstream. In areas where these wideband services are available, Comcast doubled the speeds for standard packages at no additional cost. In general, cable offers faster speeds than does DSL, which accounts for its faster take-up rate in 2008. In Canada, Bell Canada is deploying fiber networks in Ontario and Quebec that will directly connect to apartment buildings. It is also expanding its fiber-tothe-node (FTTN) network to within a mile of the home
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and will use DSL for the connection into the home. These rollouts in 2008 connected more than 2 million homes to a fiber network. Bell Canada also acquired 40 gigabits per second of fiber-based technology from Nortel that will quadruple its transmission capacity. Videotron in Canada in early 2008 introduced its Ultimate Speed service, which provides download speeds of up to 50 Mbps. Bell Canada also has a highspeed 16 Mbps option. Prices range from C$15.95 (US$14.96) per month for a 256-kilobits-per-second connection to more than C$50 (US$46.89) per month for 50 Mbps. The appeal of large bandwidth is the ability to access high-volume video applications, which are becoming popular among some users. Uploads and downloads of video material from such sites as YouTube and the sharing of videos between users are leading to a surge in video traffic. Although only about 5 percent of broadband subscribers are high-volume video users, they account for half of all the bandwidth consumed. Video traffic now accounts for around 40 percent of all Internet traffic. As recently as 2005, there was virtually no video traffic on the Internet. In the United States, Comcast in October 2008 imposed a 250-gigabits-per-month cap on Internet traffic per user, which is about 100 times the average traffic per user. Those who exceed that cap will be suspended for one year. Time Warner introduced a tiered plan in some of its Texas markets. For a basic 768 kbps service, subscribers pay $29.95 per month for 5 Gb of traffic. There is also a $54.90-per-month option that provides download speeds of up to 15 Mbps and 40 Gb of traffic. If users exceed their limit, they are charged $1 for each incremental gigabyte. These pricing plans are similar to the wireless telephone pricing model in which larger buckets are offered at higher rates, with surcharges applying if subscribers exceed their limit. The major long-term impediment to expanded household penetration is limited availability in rural areas with sparse populations. With cable and DSL, households need to be within 18,000 wire-feet of the nearest node in order to receive broadband. Cable and DSL providers have held back from extending their infrastructure to rural areas because the return on the investment is low. This is an issue of significant concern in Canada, which has very large, sparsely populated
geographic areas, though its major population concentrations are in well-served city and suburban areas. To a lesser extent, this is an issue in the United States as well. The 2009/10 Canadian budget contains a $225-million allocation over three years to develop and implement a strategy on extending broadband coverage to unserved communities. This initiative will engage additional funding from other levels of government and the private sector to continue to expand Canadas broadband network. Fixed wireless and satellite are technologies that could serve rural markets, but prices are high, availability is currently limited, and penetration is quite low. In the United States, the Department of Agriculture announced in late 2008 that it is awarding $342 million in loans to companies that will help bring improved services to rural areas. The economic stimulus packageannounced by Pres. Barack Obama includes broadband as part of a national infrastructure investment. If funds are allocated to that program, broadband availability in rural areas would increase. Over the long run, the appeal of faster speeds, even at higher prices, and increased penetration in rural areas will drive the broadband market. Nevertheless, growth will be limited by approaching saturation. In Canada, two-thirds of households were already subscribed to broadband in 2008, and the United States was just behind, at 63.5 percent. Even with increased infrastructure investment, we expect that broadband availability in rural areas will remain less than in urban areas. This means that overall penetration will have difficulty reaching the 90 percent level. We project that during the next five years, broadband penetration in Canada will rise to 85.1 percent and in the United States to 84.5 percent. The number of broadband households in the United States will increase from 74 million in 2008 to 103.5 million in 2013, a 6.9 percent compound annual increase. In Canada, growth will average 6.4 percent compounded annually, from 9 million to 12.3 million. For North America as a whole, the broadband universe will reach 115.8 million in 2013 from 83 million in 2008, growing at a 6.9 percent rate compounded annually.
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Sources: Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, Federal Communications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
During 2009 and 2010, the weak economy will likely reduce the inclination of consumers to trade up to faster speeds. We therefore expect price competition to be more prevalent in the near term. For example, in the United States in late 2008, as the economy declined, Verizon reduced its prices for its DSL, telephone, and DirecTV service bundlein areas not covered by FiOS, Verizon teams up with DirecTV to offer television in a triple play. Verizon also introduced a six-month free DSL offer to subscribers who also sign up for landline telephone service. AT&T offered a two-year price guarantee to help it attract and retain subscribers. We expect average spending per month per subscriber in both the United States and Canada to decline during the next two years and then increase during the subsequent three years as an improving economic environment facilitates increased spending for higherspeed options.
For the five-year forecast period as a whole, broadband access spending will increase at a 7.1 percent compound annual rate to $53.2 billion in 2013 from $37.7 billion in 2008. The United States will be the faster-growing broadband country as it makes greater inroads into rural areas, rising at 7.3 percent compounded annually from $34.5 billion to $49.1 billion. Broadband access spending in Canada will expand by 5.3 percent compounded annually to $4.1 billion in 2013 from $3.2 billion in 2008.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Near-term weakness
While we expect a strong long-term expansion in the broadband universe, we look for take-up rates to slow quite significantly during the next two years in both Canada and the United States as households are reluctant to incur additional expenses when they are concerned about the economic uncertainty. In the United States, broadband household growth slowed sharply in 2008 but still expanded by 12.3 percent over 2007. We expect growth to average only 4 percent annually during the next two years but then expect a pickup during the subsequent two years, with a return to double-digit growth in 2012. By 2013, when penetration passes 80 percent, growth will slow as the market approaches saturation. In Canada, which is ahead of the United States in penetration, growth dropped to 5.9 percent in 2008 following years of double-digit annual growth as the economy was weak throughout the year. We expect increases will average 5.4 percent compounded annually from 2008 to 2010. We then look for faster growth of 7 percent or more during 201112 and a 6.5 percent increase in 2013. Ultimately, Canadas broadband penetration potential will be limited because of difficulties in reaching the large rural areas of the country.
A by-product of slower broadband growth is a slower decline in the dial-up universe. We expect decreases, which averaged double digits during the past three years in the United States, to drop to single-digit declines during the next two years before plunging at faster rates during 201113 as broadband growth again accelerates. In Canada, the dial-up household base had been falling at double-digit rates during 200407. The slowdown in broadband growth in 2008 was accompanied by a slowdown in the dial-up decline, which we expect will last through 2010 before the rate of decline again picks up.
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
The overall number of dial-up households in North America will fall to 10.6 million from 24.9 million in 2008, a 15.7 percent decrease compounded annually. Canada, whose dial-up penetration is much lower than that of the United States, at 6.7 percent in 2008 compared with 20.6 percent for the US, will decrease at a 7.8 percent compound annual rate as there is a core dial-up market in rural areasas well as people who use the Internet just for e-mailthat will remain. Dial-up penetration will fall to 8.2 percent in the United States in 2013 and to 4.2 percent in Canada. Overall dial-up penetration in North America will average 7.7 percent in 2013 from 19.2 percent in 2008.
Sources: Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, Federal Communications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Dial-up access spending will decline from $5.1 billion in 2008 to $2 billion in 2013, a 17 percent compound annual decrease. The US will decrease at a 17.3 percent compound annual rate to $1.9 billion from
$5 billion in 2008, and Canada will fall from $180 million in 2008 to $105 million in 2013, a 10.2 percent decrease compounded annually.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
The overall Internet household universe will grow faster in Canada than in the United States during the next five years. Canada will increase at a 5.4 percent compound annual rate to 12.9 million in 2013, while the US will grow by 3 percent compounded annually to 113.5 million. For all of North America, growth will average 3.2 percent on a compound annual basis from 107.9 million households in 2008 to 126.4 million in 2013.
Although Canadas broadband penetration is higher than that of the United States, overall Internet penetration is higher in the US, at 84.1 percent in 2008 compared with 73.9 percent in Canada. The US will retain its advantage although the disparity will narrow. By 2013, Internet household penetration in the United States will reach 92.7 percent compared with 89.3 percent in Canada and 92.3 percent for the region as a whole.
Sources: Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, Federal Communications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Mobile access
The mobile access market was virtually nonexistent as recently as 2005 and totaled $1.1 billion in the United States and $120 million in Canada in 2008. A major catalyst for that expansion was the introduction of smart phones with touch-screen capabilities that make it much easier to access the Internet from a mobile phone. Screens are larger than traditional phones, and navigation is faster and more user-friendly. People are migrating to smart phones as hardware and software are becoming cheaper and the networks run faster. Carriers are heavily promoting the smart phones as their users spend much more per month than do non-smart-phone users. We expect that nearly 30 percent of wireless telephone subscribers in North America will use their handsets to access the Internet in 2013 compared with only 3.4 percent in 2008.
the price of their phones when the new iPhone was introduced. Verizon Wireless in 2008 introduced the LG Dare with an HTML browser and the Krave ZN4 from Motorola. AT&T, which markets the iPhone, also introduced the LG Vu, a touch-screen phone that comes with AT&T Mobile TV embedded. Sprint Nextel introduced the Samsung Instinct in June 2008, and also in 2008 Research in Motion introduced the consumeroriented BlackBerry Storm 9530, its first touch screen, exclusively through Verizon. T-Mobile introduced the G1 in October 2008, the first handset based on Googles open-sourced Android technology. The Android technology was introduced by Google in November 2007 with the goal of bringing the openness of the Internet to handsets. The Android system is expected to be incorporated into a number of new devices in 2009. Google is providing the Android operating system for handset makers and carriers for free to encourage deployment. The G1 has an Internet browser and has easy access to Googles applications such as Gmail and YouTube. The fundamental driver of the greatly increased use of mobile access is faster wireless speeds. Most carriers are already providing enhanced 3G options such as HSPA. The auction of wireless spectrum in the 700-megahertz band in mid-2008, the spectrum to be vacated by television stations, will open up new opportunities for wireless carriers to offer broadband. The Federal Communications Commission plans to auction spectrum in the advanced wireless services 3 band in 2009 with the stipulation that the winning bidder of a national license set aside a portion of the spectrum for a free broadband service. The next step in the wireless evolution is the fourth generation (4G), often defined as speeds of 100 Mbps or higher. In June 2006, seven international wireless carriersKPN Mobile, Orange, Sprint Nextel, T-Mobile International, Vodafone, China Mobile, and NTT DoCoMoformed Next Generation Mobile Networks (NGMN) to create a 4G mobile standard. NGMN hopes to be able to begin commercial 4G launches in 2010. As networks get upgraded and as smart phones gain penetration, the proportion of wireless telephone subscribers who use their handsets to access the
2010
2011
2012
2013
United States A key development in the United States was Apples June 2007 launch of the iPhone, the first touch-screen device with an iPod, a digital organizer, and wireless Internet access. That was followed in July 2008 with the iPhone 3G, which is two to three times faster than the original model. Other carriers introduced various touch-screen phones to compete against the original iPhone and lowered
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Internet will increase, and wireless access revenue will expand. Wireless access spending will total $11.7 billion in the United States in 2013 from $1.1 billion in 2008. Canada The evolution to next-generation networks is accelerating in Canada, and broadband cellular networks are already operational in the major population centers. The advanced wireless services (AWS) spectrum auction was completed in July 2008. It was an unusual auction, with three of the six AWS bands set aside for new entrants, thereby limiting the ability of Rogers, Telus, and Bell to dominate the auction. The auction was very competitive, with the final average price per MHz per person reached being around three times that of the same spectrum auctioned in the United States. While the big three did dominate in the three unrestricted bands, the auction resulted in five new entrants of significance in the AWS bands. The incumbent cable operatorsShaw, Videotron, and Bragg/Eastlinkpicked up spectrum covering territory consistent with their respective cable operations to support a quad-play strategy. Two relative newcomersGlobalive and Data & Audio Visual
Enterprises Wireless Inc.picked up spectrum across the country. The enthusiasm of the auction has been somewhat muted by tough economic times, which have caused almost all of the new entrants to scale back and defer the launch of their offerings. The new entrants will change the wireless landscape in Canada, particularly for Rogers, which at the moment is the only carrier using the Global System for Mobile Communication (GSM) family of technologies, including high-speed packet access (HSPA). This position brings Rogers advantages in such areas as roaming and handset availability, including the Apple iPhone. In addition, Telus and Bell announced that they are spending $900 million to jointly build out an HSPAbased network, making them more competitive with Rogers. As in the United States, upgraded wireless networks and the proliferation of smart phones will propel mobile Internet access in Canada. We project spending will rise to $1.3 billion in 2013 from $120 million in 2008. The overall market for mobile access spending in North America will total $13.1 billion in 2013 from $1.2 billion in 2008, a 60.9 percent compound annual increase.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Wired Internet access spending will increase from $69.3 billion in 2008 to $98.5 billion in 2013, a 7.3 percent compound annual increase. Wired broadband access spending will expand by 9.8 percent compounded annually to $94.6 billion from $59.3 billion in 2008. Wired dial-up access spending will decrease from $10 billion in 2008 to $3.9 billion in 2013, a 17.4 percent decline compounded annually. Mobile access will advance at a 24.5 percent compound annual rate to $32.9 billion in 2013 from $11 billion in 2008.
Overview
Internet wired and mobile access spending in EMEA will grow by 10.3 percent compounded annually to $131.4 billion in 2013 from $80.3 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
112
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
113
Western Europe will be the slowest-growing area in EMEA, in large part because its broadband market is the most mature, with 55 percent of all households already subscribing compared with 25 percent in Central and Eastern Europe and 12 percent in Middle East/Africa. Total access spending in Western Europe will increase at a 7 percent compound annual rate to $91.9 billion in 2013 from $65.5 billion in 2008. Central and Eastern Europe will increase at a 17.5 percent compound annual rate from $8.3 billion to $18.6 billion, fueled principally by a more than doubling of its broadband household base. In Middle East/Africa, we expect the broadband universe to nearly triple and overall spending to rise by 26.2 percent compounded annually to $20.8 billion in 2013 from $6.5 billion in 2008. Germany, France, and the United Kingdom were the leading countries in 2008, at $13.9 billion, $10.5 billion, and $10.2 billion, respectively. Italy was next, at $8.2 billion, followed by Spain at $6 billion and Saudi Arabia/ Pan Arab at $4.2 billion. These six countries accounted for nearly two-thirds of total spending in EMEA in 2008.
up to 100 Mbps. Older buildings will have FTTN and a copper connection to the home, allowing speeds of up to 40 Mbps. In France, the broadband market is very competitive, with four major providers, each of which is installing fiber networks to offer speeds of up to 100 Mbps. In Finland, TeliaSonera is investing in an FTTH service to provide 100 Mbps download speeds, and in the Czech Republic, Radiokomunikace upgraded its DSL service to 20 Mbps. Governments are also actively supporting broadband. In Finland, the government is funding a project that will extend the fiber network to within two kilometers of virtually all households, enabling download speeds of up to 100 Mbps. In Switzerland, legislation that went into effect in 2008 makes broadband a Universal Service Obligation, which means that Swisscom, as the universal service provider, is required to make broadband available to the entire population, including people living in rural areas that have been beyond the reach of DSL or cable modem service. During the past five years, Swisscom invested around $1 billion in upgrading its DSL network and has plans to spend another CHF8 billion ($7.4 billion) through 2016 on building a Swiss-wide FTTH network. Swisscom currently provides DSL speeds of up to 20 Mbps with ADSL and VDSL/VDSL2 technologies for 80 percent of the population. Furthermore, Swisscom aims to migrate to a fully digital infrastructureso-called allIP (Internet protocol)by 2013. Germany is spending 141 million ($206 million) in public funds to extend broadband availability to rural areas. The plan offers incentives for private companies to provide broadband for rural areas and uses public funds to subsidize broadband in areas where market conditions will not support it. The plan was approved by the European Commission in mid-2008. Rural broadband will also be helped by satellite. Eutelsat and Astra have deals in several countries with local providers to offer broadband by satellite. In Germany, for example, Eutelsat in conjunction with TelDaFax will provide a satellite broadband service in areas where DSL service is poor or nonexistent.
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In Italy, the digital divide is being reduced through the launch of WiMAX in early 2009. The new technology will cover rural communities throughout Italy and will be managed by two licensed operators. Moreover, Vodafone has declared that it will also cover digitally divided areas with High-Speed-Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA) technology. Fixed wireless is another potential solution. In Germany, O2 offers broadband through Genion Homezone, a fixed wireless service that uses its Universal Mobile Telecommunications System network for the last mile. In the Netherlands, Worldmax launched a fixed wireless service in Amsterdam. High-speed fixed wireless using WiMAX technology was also launched in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa in 2008. In some areas, limitations in international connectivity effectively slow broadband speeds because it is difficult to access international Web sites. To address that bottleneck, undersea cables are being constructed in several countries. In Russia, an undersea cable that connects Sakhalin with Hokkaido, Japan, was completed in December 2007 and went into service in 2008. The project, a joint venture between TransTeleCom and NTT in Japan, accommodates 640 Gbps. Improved connectivity with Asia will speed up broadband activity in Russia. Telephone companies in South Africa are collectively spending $400 million to deploy an undersea cable along the west coast of Africa that will link the region to London. The cable is expected to substantially reduce service costs. Completion is anticipated by 2010, when South Africa will host the FIFA World Cup. Telecom Egypt in conjunction with Alcatel-Lucent is spending $125 million on an undersea cable linking Egypt with France.
In general, faster speeds facilitate high-volume applications such as video, which makes broadband more appealing. We expect the introduction of highspeed options to propel broadband penetration over the long run once economic conditions improve. The broadband household base has been growing at double-digit annual rates during each of the past five years. In 2008 there were 131.7 million broadband households in EMEA, a 22 percent increase from 2007 and more than three times the 37.4 million total in 2004. We project the number of broadband households in EMEA to increase to 223.8 million by 2013, an 11.2 percent compound annual increase from 2008. In Western Europe the broadband household universe will expand from 100.5 million to 154.8 million, a 9 percent compound annual increase. Central and Eastern Europe will increase at a 15.8 percent compound annual rate to 53.6 million from 25.7 million in 2008. Broadband will grow by 23.2 percent compounded annually in Middle East/Africa to 15.5 million from 5.4 million in 2008. Excluding Israel, which has a 77 percent broadband household penetration and a projected growth of only 4 percent compounded annually, Middle East/Africa will increase at a 23.2 percent compound annual rate. By 2013, 76.3 percent of households in Western Europe will be broadband households. Broadband penetration in Central and Eastern Europe will increase to 51.6 percent, and Middle East/Africa will rise to 32.2 percent. For the region as a whole, broadband penetration will average 63.1 percent in 2013 compared with 39.9 percent in 2008.
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2004
2005
2006
2007
2008p
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
200913 CAGR
0.73 1.43 0.87 0.65 5.07 6.57 0.03 0.10 3.49 2.90 0.54 0.67 3.40 1.25 1.06 4.62 33.38 0.20 0.34 1.26 0.11 0.51 0.39 2.81 0.81 0.31 0.04 1.16 37.35
1.02 1.82 1.18 0.87 8.02 8.31 0.11 0.24 5.77 3.95 0.83 1.00 5.04 1.66 1.49 8.01 49.32 0.60 0.53 2.74 0.43 1.13 1.08 6.51 1.10 0.67 0.11 1.88 57.71
1.31 2.18 1.54 1.15 11.09 12.74 0.32 0.46 7.73 4.60 1.12 1.30 6.69 2.20 1.86 11.44 67.73 0.91 0.93 3.65 1.02 2.24 2.37 11.12 1.33 1.27 0.25 2.85 81.70
1.51 2.54 1.86 1.35 14.13 17.40 0.75 0.65 9.75 5.40 1.34 1.52 8.07 2.81 2.29 14.26 85.63 1.37 1.35 4.73 1.69 5.00 4.20 18.34 1.47 2.15 0.40 4.02 107.99
1.72 2.80 2.02 1.47 16.65 21.70 1.40 0.90 11.50 5.65 1.55 1.60 9.48 2.88 2.50 16.70 100.52 1.65 1.45 5.29 1.98 10.00 5.35 25.72 1.60 3.14 0.70 5.44 131.68
1.78 2.90 2.07 1.55 17.50 23.00 1.50 1.05 12.50 5.75 1.60 1.67 10.14 2.92 2.60 17.50 106.03 1.80 1.51 5.85 2.15 11.00 6.75 29.06 1.65 4.08 0.95 6.68 141.77
1.85 3.05 2.15 1.70 19.00 25.00 1.60 1.12 14.00 5.90 1.65 1.75 11.02 2.98 2.70 18.50 113.97 1.90 1.60 6.68 2.30 11.50 7.75 31.73 1.70 5.15 1.20 8.05 153.75
1.95 3.20 2.25 1.85 21.00 28.00 1.80 1.25 16.00 6.10 1.75 1.85 12.68 3.10 2.85 20.00 125.63 2.05 1.75 7.79 2.60 14.00 8.70 36.89 1.80 6.74 1.50 10.04 172.56
2.15 3.35 2.35 2.00 23.50 32.00 2.00 1.35 18.50 6.35 1.80 2.00 15.43 3.30 3.00 22.00 141.08 2.35 2.00 9.74 3.15 17.50 9.90 44.64 1.90 8.69 2.00 12.59 198.31
2.25 3.50 2.45 2.15 25.50 34.00 2.20 1.50 21.00 6.65 1.85 2.20 18.74 3.60 3.20 24.00 154.79 2.70 2.25 12.53 3.90 21.00 11.20 53.58 1.95 11.00 2.50 15.45 223.82
5.5 4.6 3.9 7.9 8.9 9.4 9.5 10.8 12.8 3.3 3.6 6.6 14.6 4.6 5.1 7.5 9.0 10.4 9.2 18.8 14.5 16.0 15.9 15.8 4.0 28.5 29.0 23.2 11.2
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
116
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Growth in broadband has come largely at the expense of dial-up. With the exceptions of Russia and Saudi Arabia/Pan Arab, the number of dial-up subscribers declined in each country in 2008. During the past four years, the dial-up subscriber base for EMEA as a whole has fallen at double-digit rates. We expect that the weak economy will lead to slower near-term growth in broadband and a slower decline in dial-up. During the latter part of the forecast period, we expect a faster increase in the broadband household universe and a faster decline in dial-up.
Western Europe will experience the sharpest decline in dial-up as that area becomes almost exclusively broadband. There is still a significant dial-up market in Germany, with 11 million subscribers in 2008, and in Italy, which has 7 million subscribers. In France and the United Kingdom, dial-up is fading away. In Central and Eastern Europe, Russia has the largest dial-up subscriber base, at 5.2 million. In Saudi Arabia/ Pan Arab and South Africa, dial-up continues to be the principal means of accessing the Internet. Western Europe had the largest dial-up market of the three areas in EMEA in 2008, at 24.5 million. In 2013 it will have an estimated 6.4 million, a 23.6 percent compound annual decline. Central and Eastern Europe will experience a 4.7 percent compound annual decline in dial-up households, falling from 6.9 million in 2008 to 5.4 million in 2013. Dial-up in Middle East/Africa will fall at a 3.7 percent compound annual rate to 8 million from 9.6 million in 2008. In 2013, Middle East/Africa will have the largest dial-up market in EMEA. The overall number of dial-up households will decline by 13.6 percent compounded annually to 19.8 million in 2013 from 41 million in 2008. Dial-up household penetration will drop from 12.4 percent in 2008 to 5.6 percent in 2013.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
119
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
120
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
121
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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There were a total of 172.7 million Internet households in EMEA in 2008, for a penetration rate of 52.3 percent of all households. In Western Europe 68.2 percent of all households were online. Internet penetration was 32.2 percent in Central and Eastern Europe and 33 percent in Middle East/Africa. We project the number of Internet households to increase to 243.6 million by 2013, a 7.1 percent compound annual gain. Western Europe will expand at a 5.2 percent compound annual rate to 161.2 million; Central and Eastern Europe will grow by 12.6 percent compounded annually to 59 million households; and Middle East/Africa will rise to 23.4 million Internet households in 2013, up 9.2 percent on a compound annual basis. By 2013, 68.7 percent of all households in EMEA will be online. Penetration will increase to 79.5 percent in Western Europe. In Central and Eastern Europe, Internet penetration will rise to 56.8 percent, and in Middle East/Africa, 48.8 percent of households will be online in 2013.
In addition to competitive factors that are reducing costs, we expect that subscribers will be resistant to upgrade to higher-speed services during the next year or two so as to avoid incurring additional expenses in the face of deteriorating economic conditions and rising unemployment. We also expect a slower take-up rate in broadband itself. Consequently, we project broadband access spending, which has been growing at double-digit annual rates during the past five years, to slow to mid-single-digit increases during the next two years. We then project growth to return to double-digit levels during 201113 as improved economic conditions lead to a faster broadband adoption rate and trade-ups to higher-speed options raise average spending per subscriber.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Broadband access spending in Western Europe will grow by 8 percent compounded annually to $73.5 billion in 2013. Central and Eastern Europe will expand at a 13.1 percent compound annual rate to $11.5 billion in 2013 from $6.2 billion in 2008. Middle East/Africa will be the fastest-growing, with a 24.8 percent compound annual increase to $9.6 billion from $3.2 billion. France, Germany, and the UK had the largest broadband access markets in 2008, at $9.1 billion, $8.8 billion, and $8.3 billion, respectively. France overtook Germany in 2007, and we expect Germany to regain the lead in 2011, rising to $13.4 billion by 2013, with France at $13 billion and the UK at $11.6 billion.
123
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
124
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
125
During the next five years, dial-up spending in Western Europe will decline at a 24.2 percent compound annual rate to $1.8 billion from $7.4 billion in 2008. Central and Eastern Europe will drop to $528 million, a 9 percent decrease compounded annually from $845 million in 2008. Dial-up spending in Middle East/Africa will fall by 3.9 percent compounded annually to $1.5 billion in 2013 from $1.8 billion in 2008. The dial-up market in all of EMEA will fall from $10 billion in 2008 to $3.9 billion in 2013, a 17.4 percent compound annual decrease.
Magyar Telecom has a long-term loan from the European Investment Bank for around $300 million to invest in mobile broadband. In Italy, mobile broadband access expanded significantly during 2008 and is forecast to increase further in 2009 and 2010. HSDPA is the standard technology, but TIM, the incumbent operator, recently announced the launch of a new network that will bring the capacity up to 28 Mbps. In Switzerland, Swisscom has invested in upgrading its HSDPA mobile access network, now offering speeds of up to 14.4 Mbps in most major city centers and tourism areas. The village of Davos was one of the first areas to be upgraded, due to the presence of the World Economic Forum. Swisscom introduced the iPhone in June 2008 and had sold 170,000 iPhones by the end of 2008. Every fourth new mobile phone sold at Swisscom over this period was an iPhone. Around 97 percent of iPhone users take on a subscription, with an average revenue per unit of CHF83 ($77), well above the average for Swisscom users. In Russia, each of the main wireless operators launched 3G services in the past 18 months. Vimplekom, which introduced 3G in St. Petersburg, has a deal with Apple to distribute the iPhone that will operate on its 3G network. Virgin introduced WiMAX in Moscow and several other cites in 2008, and Mobile TeleSystems (MTS) announced it plans to invest around $400 million during the next three years on 3G networks in St. Petersburg and other cities. Because mobile Internet access involves interactive communications, which are more complicated than the downloading of songs or ringtones, speed is important. We expect rollouts of high-speed services to spur mobile access penetration. In addition to network upgrades, the introduction of smart phones such as the iPhone can spur the market. Smart phones with touch-screen capabilities make it much easier to navigate the Internet. As the experience in Germany demonstrates, Internet-friendly handsets can drive usage.
Mobile access
Wireless network upgrades are facilitating growth in mobile Internet access because more wireless telephone subscribers can use their handsets to access the Internet. Orange UK is upgrading its 3G infrastructure in Scotland and Northern Ireland to HSDPA to facilitate mobile broadband with download speeds of up to 7.2 Mbps. In the Netherlands in 2008, Worldmax launched Europes first mobile WiMAX service. Carriers in Denmark spent around $1.6 billion to upgrade to 3G through 2008. Telecompany 3 introduced a 21 Mbps service in late 2008, and in Finland, each of the three mobile operators now offers 3G. In Germany, T-Mobile and Vodafone offer HSDPA with speeds of up to 1.8 Mbps. In some cities, speeds of up to 3.6 Mbps are available, and in large population centers, 7.2 Mbps is available. T-Mobile and Vodafone each provide a mobile Internet plan allowing data transfers of up to 5 Gbps per month. T-Mobile introduced the iPhone in late 2007 and within the first two months had 70,000 subscribers. Those subscribers are heavy Internet users, downloading up to 30 times more data than the average wireless subscriber does. Aside from the iPhone, other smart phones are also being offered and heavily promoted by operators, helping grow the mobile access market. HSDPA is also available in Austria, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Hungary, and Poland. In Hungary,
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Mobile access spending exceeded $1 billion in each of France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Saudi Arabia/Pan Arab in 2008, and we expect Spain to reach that threshold in 2009, Russia in 2011, Turkey in 2012, and Poland in 2013. Mobile access is relatively high in Saudi Arabia/Pan Arab because of the limited availability of wired broadband. Currently, only a fraction of wireless telephone subscribers are mobile Internet subscribers. On average, 8.2 percent of the wireless telephone subscribers were mobile Internet subscribers in 2008. Slow speeds and limited penetration of smart phones or handsets with full keyboard capabilities limit penetration. Cost is also an issue, and we expect a slower take-up rate during the next two years as consumers look to conserve funds. In 2008, mobile access penetration increased by 1.9 percentage points. We expect a 1.4-percentage-point gain in 2009 to 9.6 percent followed by a 1.7-point increase in 2010. Thereafter, the combination of an improved underlying economy, more-Internet-appropriate handsets, and faster network speeds will propel penetration. From 2010 to 2013, we expect mobile access penetration to jump by 12.6 percentage points to 23.9 percent in 2013.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Spending on mobile access will nearly triple during the next five years to $32.9 billion in 2013 from $11 billion in 2008, a 24.5 percent compound annual gain. Western Europe will increase to $16.5 billion in 2013 from $8.2 billion in 2008, a 15 percent compound annual gain. Central and Eastern Europe will expand by 38.6 percent compounded annually from $1.3 billion in 2008 to $6.6 billion in 2013. Middle East/Africa will be the fastest-growing area from a small base, rising to $9.7 billion in 2013 from $1.5 billion in 2008 for a 45.3 percent increase on a compound annual basis.
127
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
128
Asia Pacific
Wired Internet access spending will rise from $42 billion in 2008 to $54.3 billion in 2013, a 5.3 percent increase compounded annually. Wired dial-up access spending will total $9.5 billion in 2013, a 6.8 percent compound annual decline. Wired broadband access spending will grow at a 9.5 percent compound annual rate to $44.8 billion in 2013 from $28.5 billion in 2008. Mobile access spending will increase from $39.3 billion in 2008 to $62.3 billion in 2013, a 9.7 percent compound annual increase. Mobile access spending will overtake wired access spending in 2011.
Overview
Internet wired and mobile access will increase during the next five years to $116.6 billion in 2013 from $81.3 billion in 2008, averaging 7.5 percent compounded annually.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
129
Japan has the largest market in Asia Pacific, at $37.8 billion in 2008, with 74 percent of that total coming from mobile access. Japan is the only country in the world where the majority of Internet access spending is generated from mobile phones. Because its mobile access market is already mature, Japan will not benefit from a surge in that market that will characterize most other countries. We project spending to increase at a 2.8 percent compound annual rate to $43.3 billion in 2013. The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) was the secondlargest country in Asia Pacific in 2008, at $20.1 billion. The PRC has the largest wired Internet household base in the world, at 161 million in 2008, and the secondlargest mobile access subscriber base, behind Japan, at around 45 million. The PRC passed the United
States in 2008 to become the largest wired broadband market in the world, with 76 million households. While growth will not match the explosive increases during the past five years, as the economy and Internet penetration growth slow, we do expect spending to continue to average double-digit gains of 12.7 percent on a compound annual basis. Spending will rise to a projected $36.5 billion in 2013. South Korea was next largest, at $12.5 billion, in 2008. South Korea has the third-largest mobile access subscriber base in the world, at more than 36 million, more than twice the number of broadband households. High penetration in both broadband and mobile will limit growth during the next five years. We project South Korea to increase at a 3.9 percent rate compounded annually to $15.1 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Broadband
Countries throughout the region are enhancing their broadband capacity to provide faster speeds and greater throughput. The Japanese government is actively promoting broadband through its Next Generation Broadband Strategy 2010 initiative. That strategy targeted fiber to the home as a central tenet. The FTTH market rose from 2.9 million in 2005 to more than 13 million in 2008, the largest of any country in the world, and in 2008 fiber became the largest broadband access technology in Japan. Carriers are introducing high-speed options so-called next-generation networksto further enhance the market. In the PRC, the restructuring of the telecommunications market will lead to more broadband competition. There are now three competitive companies in the marketChina Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicomeach of which can offer mobile and fixed-line service in a package, and each of which will operate a wireless network by using a single wireless broadband technology. China Mobile, the largest wireless carrier in the world, now has a fixed-line network, which will enable it to introduce a broadband service in 2009. It is unclear how long it will take for this increased competition to result in lower broadband access fees. In Australia, the government is expected to award a tender in 2009 for a national broadband network at an estimated cost of $5 billion. Telstra, Australias largest telecommunications company, had its tender submission rejected for alleged noncompliance. In 2008, Telstra activated its high-speed DSL network, providing speeds of up to 20 Mbps. In the Philippines, industry experts attribute growth in broadband Internet access to decreasing broadband user rates and the declining prices of personal computers. To respond to that increasing demand, two major broadband providers allocated a huge chunk of their 2009 capital expenditure budgets for investment in broadband expansion. Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company (PLDT) allocated $364 million, while Globe Telecom set aside $400 million to $420 million.
In Singapore, as part of its iN2015 master plan, which includes the Next Generation National Infocomm Infrastructure, the government is supporting a national fiber-to-the-home network that will provide speeds of up to 1 Gbps. The network is scheduled to initially become available in 2010 to 60 percent of the country and to be available to 95 percent of the country by 2012. In Malaysia, the project to build an FTTH network with Telekom Malaysia was delayed, but an agreement was finally signed in late 2008. The 10-year project will reach every urban home. The government awarded WiMAX licenses to provide fixed wireless broadband, and several companies began providing service in 2008. In South Korea, wired Internet access is entirely through a broadband connection. The governments long-term broadband strategy focused on creating a backbone network funded by the government that could be used by carriers. Carriers are able to provide broadband for rural areas because they do not have to build their own infrastructure. In India, a project is under way to extend broadband to rural areas by using broadband-over-power-line (BPL) technology. In Thailand, state-owned carrier CAT Telecom is building a fiber-optic cable backbone that will reach all regions of the country and provide faster broadband speeds. In Vietnam, the Vietnam Post and Telecommunications Group invested in a national broadband network in 2008, increasing capacity to 200 Gbps. In Indonesia, fixed wireless services are being rolled out by carriers as a less expensive alternative for the last-mile connection to the home. Around half of the broadband subscribers in Indonesia are connected via fixed wireless. Fixed wireless using WiMAX technology also is being introduced or expanded in other countries. In Pakistan, Motorola has a contract with Wateen Telecom for around 200,000 devices that will be used for wireless DSL. In Taiwan, six companies were issued WiMAX licenses in July 2007, and they are looking to jointly purchase WiMAX equipment to save on capital costs and accelerate the process of introducing service. WiMAX licenses are expected to be issued in Thailand in 2009, and in Vietnam four companies were issued licenses to test WiMAX service for one year.
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To assist in extending broadband to rural areas, O3b Networks entered the market in 2008 with a satellite service. A series of medium-Earth-orbit satellites is expected to be launched in late 2010. The satellites will provide broadband connectivity to areas across the region not reached by DSL or cable modem service. The ability to accommodate rising levels of Internet traffic will be a critical factor in the facilitating of broadband expansion. The construction of undersea fiber-optic cables that link Asia with the rest of the world will allow for faster broadband speeds. In October 2008, the first phase of the Trans-Pacific Express was completed that links China and Taiwan with the United States, the first such direct link. The eight companies participating in the projectChina Telecom, China Netcom, China Unicom, Chunghwa Telecom (Taiwan), Korea Telecom, NTT Communications Corp., AT&T, and Verizonare spending around $500 million. In Hong Kong, Hutchison in 2008 integrated its Hong KongShenzhen Western Corridor fiber-optic cable with the China Telecom network, increasing to four the number of fiber connections between Hong Kong and China. In other developments, KDDI of Japan and Rostelecom of Russia deployed two undersea fiber-optic cables connecting the two countries. The existing Rostelecom network in Russia will provide a link to fiber-optic cable networks in Europe to meet growing demand for data access between Japan and Europe. An undersea cable linking Japan and the United States, built jointly by SingTel, KDDI, Bharti Airtel, Pacnet, Global Transit, and Google at a cost of $300 million is scheduled to be completed in 2010. Meanwhile, the Asia American Gateway being built by Alcatel-Lucent and NECwhich will connect Hong Kong, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam with Hawaii and the West Coast of the United Statesis expected to become operational in 2009.
There is a wide disparity in broadband penetration in Asia Pacific. Broadband is well developed in Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan, each of which had penetration rates in excess of 50 percent in 2008. Broadband penetration in Malaysia was 24.6 percent, and in the PRC, 19.2 percent. The remaining countries have penetration rates below 10 percent. Despite its relatively low penetration rate, the PRC leads the region, with 76 million broadband subscribers. We expect that the restructuring will facilitate expansion of the broadband infrastructure, and we project the broadband subscriber base will more than double to 155 million by 2013, a 15.3 percent compound annual increase. The PRC will account for 66 percent of broadband household growth in Asia Pacific during the next five years. In countries that have high broadband penetration rates, we project low- to mid-single-digit gains during the next five years, while we look for double-digit average growth in each country where broadband penetration was less than 50 percent in 2008. We project the number of broadband households in Asia Pacific as a whole will increase to 264.3 million by 2013 from 144.7 million in 2008, a 12.8 percent compound annual increase. Excluding the PRC, broadband household growth will average 9.7 percent compounded annually. Broadband household penetration will increase from 17.5 percent in 2008 to 29.6 percent in 2013.
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133
Wired broadband access spending will increase to $44.8 billion in 2013 from $28.5 billion in 2008, a 9.5 percent compound annual increase.
The PRC will account for 56 percent of that increase. Excluding the PRC, spending growth will average 6.4 percent compounded annually.
134
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Dial-up
Asia Pacific also has the largest dial-up subscriber base in the world, at 132.4 million. During the past two years, the number of dial-up subscribers jumped by 75 percent, principally because of a large increase in the PRC, whose dial-up market more than doubled to 85 million from 31 million in 2006. Rapid economic growth stimulated demand for the Internet, and many people who did not have access to broadband opted for dialup. With broadband availability increasing, we expect dial-up subscribers to migrate to broadband. Beginning in 2009, the dial-up universe in China will decline. In general, countries with established broadband infrastructures are experiencing decreases in dial-up as most households shift to broadband. In South Korea, all Internet access is through broadband connection. In other countries, however, the telecommunications infrastructure is still being built out and broadband is
not widely available. In those countries, dial-up is still expandingin many cases at double-digit annual rates. In addition to the PRC, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam recorded increases in their dial-up subscriber bases. India will experience the largest increase in dial-up, with a projected rise to 18 million subscribers by 2013 from 10.5 million in 2008, a 7.5 million advance. India, which still does not have a well-developed broadband infrastructure, is experiencing an expanding Internet market, much of which is being achieved through dial-up. In most other countries, the broadband infrastructure is already built out or is expanding at a rapid pace. In those countries, many dial-up subscribers are shifting to broadband. We project the dial-up household universe to continue to decline in Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, and South Korea.
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For the region as a whole, the number of dial-up households will begin falling in 2009 and will decline at a 6.2 percent compound annual rate, which would be the smallest decrease of any region. The number of
dial-up subscribers will total an estimated 96.3 million in 2013. Dial-up penetration will fall to 10.8 percent in 2013 from 16 percent in 2008.
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Dial-up access spending rose at annual rates in excess of 20 percent during the past two years, reflecting the jump in the dial-up universe in the PRC. Excluding the PRC, dial-up spending in 2008 was 4.4 percent lower than in 2006.
We expect dial-up spending to begin to decline in 2009, mirroring the trend in dial-up households. Spending will drop to $9.5 billion in 2013 from $13.5 billion in 2008, down 6.8 percent on a compound annual basis.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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There were a total of 277 million wired Internet households in Asia Pacific in 2008, with the PRC and Japan accounting for 206.5 million, or 75 percent of the total. From 2004 to 2008, the Internet household universe expanded at a 21.5 percent compound annual rate. We expect growth to drop to mid single digits beginning in 2009. Many countries are approaching saturation, while others, although expanding rapidly, are relatively small.
By 2013, the wired Internet universe will total an estimated 360.7 million, representing a 5.4 percent compound annual increase from 2008. The PRC and India will account for 69 percent of that growth. Internet household penetration will increase from 33.5 percent in 2008 to 40.3 percent in 2013.
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Mobile access
Asia Pacific has by far the largest mobile access market in the world, at $39.3 billion in 2008, constituting 76 percent of the global total. Within Asia Pacific, Japan accounts for 71 percent of the total at $28 billion. South Korea at $5.9 billion and the PRC at $3.8 billion also have significant mobile access market. The top three countries represented 96 percent of the Asia Pacific total and 73 percent of the global total. In Japan, nearly 90 million people use their mobile phones to access the Internet. In the summer of 2008, SoftBank introduced the iPhone from Apple into the Japanese market. When launched in other countries, the iPhone proved to be very popular, and we expect a similar pattern in Japan. With around 80 percent of mobile telephone subscribers already using their mobile devices to access the Internet, growth will necessarily be limited. We expect mobile access spending in Japan to increase at a 3 percent compound annual rate to $32.5 billion in 2013.
The mobile access market in South Korea also is approaching saturation, and we expect a relatively modest, 5.1 percent annual increase to $7.6 billion in 2013. Restructuring in the PRC will make the wireless market more competitive, and the introduction of 3G services in 2009 will expand the reach of mobile access. Carriers during the next two years are expected to spend around $40 billion in the development of 3G networks. We expect the PRC to overtake South Korea in 2011 and rise to $15 billion by 2013, a 31.8 percent compound annual increase. Although the mobile access subscriber base is large in absolute terms, only about 7 percent of wireless telephone subscribers in the PRC were mobile access subscribers in 2008, leaving substantial room for growth. In Indonesia, mobile access was only recently introduced and quickly exceeded the wired broadband subscriber base. There are four high-speed wireless networks now in operation in Indonesia. We expect mobile access spending to rise to $2.2 billion in 2013 from $268 million in 2008.
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In Hong Kong, spectrum auctions for broadband wireless access are scheduled for 2009. Apple in late 2008 allowed the iPhone 3G to be able to be used by subscribers to any mobile carrier, which should significantly raise its penetration. Previously, the iPhone was available only through Hutchison. There are also a number of developments in other countries that are enhancing the wireless market. In Australia, Optus is expanding its 3G network to reach 98 percent of the population by the end of 2009 at an estimated cost of $800 million. In Thailand, CAT Telecom is expanding its 3G network, and during the past three years, wireless carriers in Thailand spent $1.8 billion on their wireless networks. Despite high penetration rates in Japan and South Korea, less than 13 percent of wireless telephone subscribers in all of Asia Pacific were mobile access subscribers in 2008. We expect relatively modest penetration growth during the next two years, followed by accelerated growth during 201113, reflecting the economic cycle and the
build out of advanced wireless networks. By 2013, an estimated 20.4 percent of the potential market will be mobile access subscribers. We project mobile access spending will increase to $62.3 billion in 2013, a 9.7 percent compound annual increase.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Latin America
Wired Internet access spending will increase at a compound annual rate of 11 percent, growing to $14.2 billion in 2013 from $8.4 billion in 2008. Wired dial-up access spending will decrease from $1.8 billion in 2008 to $851 million in 2013, a 14.1 percent compound annual decline. Wired broadband access spending will total $13.3 billion in 2013, up 15.2 percent on a compound annual basis from $6.6 billion in 2008. Mobile access will expand from $518 million in 2008 to $3.2 billion in 2013, a 44 percent compound annual increase from a small base.
Overview
We expect Internet wired and mobile access spending in Latin America to grow at a 14.3 percent compound annual rate, from $8.9 billion in 2008 to $17.4 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Internet access spending rose at double-digit annual rates during the past five years, fueled by a rapidly growing broadband market. We expect a dip to singledigit gains during the next two years as the economic environment weakens, and then a return to double-digit annual growth during 201113 as the economy recovers.
Brazil was the largest market in the region, at $4 billion in 2008. Mexico at $1.8 billion was next followed by Argentina at $1.6 billion. Each country will average double-digit compound annual increases during the next five years.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Infrastructure upgrades
Each country is initiating programs to expand its broadband market. In Brazil, the government is undertaking a program to provide broadband for schools and municipal councils. Satellite technology will be used to provide access points. Telefnica is expanding its broadband network, investing around $250 million in DSL and another $60 million in its fiber infrastructure. Embratel is providing wireless broadband access across the country as well, mostly for schools and public Internet centers. Additionally, BPL Global is deploying broadband over power line in conjunction with COPEL Telecomunicaes in Paran. We project the broadband market in Brazil to more than double to 20 million in 2013 from 8.7 million in 2008, an 18.1 percent compound annual increase. In Mexico, WiMAX is being used to extend broadband to areas not currently reached, because it is around 80 percent less expensive to deploy than wired technologies. The launch of triple-play services
by cable operators is driving broadband in areas reached by cable modems. Fueled by new, triple-play options, we expect broadband in Mexico to rise to 11 million subscribers in 2013, growing by 15.9 percent compounded annually from 5.25 million in 2008. In Argentina, Multicanal and CableVisin are investing more than $300 million in a fiber infrastructure to offer triple-play packages. CABASE is also planning to deploy a fiber network to provide broadband in competition with Telefnica de Argentina and Telecom Argentina outside of Buenos Aires. Telefnica de Argentina spent around $100 million on its broadband infrastructure in 2008. We expect Argentinas broadband market to nearly double to 5.1 million in 2013 from 2.65 million in 2008, a 14 percent compound annual increase. In Colombia, cable is the principal broadband technology, although DSL is gaining ground. Telefnica Colombia expanded its DSL network to each of the major cities. Telmex acquired five cable companies in Colombia and is using that platform to create an infrastructure to launch a triple-play service that should stimulate the broadband
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market. The broadband subscriber base in Colombia will expand at a 21 percent compound annual rate from 1.35 million in 2008 to 3.5 million in 2013. In Chile, the government is deploying broadband in lessdeveloped areas and has a program to offer broadband in schools and in public Internet places. We look for broadband to rise to 2.25 million households from 1.3 million, an 11.6 percent increase compounded annually. In Venezuela, Movistar is extending its fiber network to provide extra bandwidth for broadband. Additionally, Gran Caribe Telecommunications is planning an undersea cable to link Venezuela with Cuba, which will significantly increase capacity. The cable is expected
to go into operation in 2010. We expect Venezuela to increase to 2 million broadband subscribers in 2013, twice the total in 2008. For the region as a whole, we project the broadband household base to grow at a 16.7 percent compound annual rate to 43.85 million in 2013 from 20.25 million in 2008. Wired broadband household penetration will increase to 36.7 percent by 2013. Chile, the broadband leader in 2008, with a penetration rate of 31.7 percent, will rise to 53.6 percent in 2013, the only country in the region where a majority of households will have a broadband connection.
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Through 2007, dial-up was the leading means of accessing the Internet. Beginning in 2008, the surging broadband market began to cannibalize dial-up. Dial-up fell 9.9 percent in 2008 and was overtaken by broadband. We expect smaller annual decreases during the next two years as the migration to broadband slows because of the weak economy. We then look for accelerating declines in dial-up during 201113 as the pace of migration to broadband picks up. By 2013, dial-up will account for only 17 percent of Internet households. The number of dial-up households will decrease at an 11.5 percent compound annual rate to 8.7 million in 2013 from 16.1 million in 2008. Dial-up household penetration for the region as a whole will drop to 7.3 percent in 2013 from 14.8 percent in 2008.
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There were 36.3 million wired Internet households in Latin America in 2008, giving a penetration rate of 33.4 percent. We project the total number of Internet households will increase to 52.6 million by 2013, a 7.7 percent compound annual gain. Except for Brazil which is focusing on wireless access for its next phase
of expansion and which will see Internet households increase at an annual rate of only 4.4 percenteach country will record double-digit annual increases. Overall penetration across the region will rise to 43.9 percent.
Mexico will reach $2.8 billion in 2013 from $1.5 billion in 2008, a 13.2 percent compound annual gain. Argentina will rise from $1.5 billion to $2.8 billion, growing at a 13.5 percent compound annual rate. Colombia will be the only other country to exceed the $1-billion threshold in 2013, rising to $2.2 billion from $912 million in 2008.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Dial-up access spending began to decline in 2007 and fell by 17 percent in 2008. We expect decreases averaging 10.7 percent compounded annually during the next two years following by compound annual declines of 16.3 percent during 201113.
For the forecast period as a whole, we expect dial-up spending to drop at a 14.1 percent compound annual rate from $1.8 billion in 2008 to $851 million in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Mobile access
Latin America is beginning to develop a wireless infrastructure capable of supporting mobile Internet access. Brazil is by far the largest market in Latin America, at $432 million. Mexico was a distant second at only $31 million.
In Brazil, the government auctioned 3G licenses in late 2007, and 3G services began to be launched in 2008. NII Holdings is spending $100 million to expand its wireless network and to upgrade to 3G. In Colombia, Movistar and Colombia Mvil launched 3G in 2008, and Telcel in Mexico expanded its 3G service area.
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In Argentina, Telecom Argentina spent $270 million in 2008 to upgrade its wireless network to 3G and to expand coverage. We expect these and other efforts to expand highspeed wireless in Latin America. As high-speed services become available, they will attract people who want to access the Internet from their wireless phones. In 2008, only 1.5 percent of wireless telephone subscribers were mobile access subscribers in Latin America, nearly 80 percent of whom were in Brazil. We expect only modest penetration growth during the next two years as the weak economy and limited infrastructure restrain growth. We then look for penetration to accelerate as wireless networks get upgraded and as economic conditions improve. By 2013, we expect that around 9 percent of wireless telephone subscribers will use their handsets to access the Internet.
2010
2011
2012
2013
Mobile access spending will increase from $518 million in 2008 to $3.2 billion in 2013, up 44 percent on a compound annual basis.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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150 Summary 151 North America 159 Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA) 166 Asia Pacific 172 Latin America
Summary
Principal drivers
The economic downturn will cut into growth during the next two years, leading to decreases in 2009 in North America and EMEA and slower growth in Asia Pacific and Latin America. Classified and display advertising will be hurt most by the recession, while search and video advertising will hold up better. The anticipated economic recovery will lead to a return to double-digit growth during 201213. In addition to the economy, broadband household growth will be the principal driver of wired Internet advertising. In the mobile market, wireless network upgrades, growth in number of mobile access subscribers, increasing penetration of Internet-enabled smart phones, and the expansion of mobile television will drive mobile advertising.
Data for the global Internet advertising: wired and mobile market by region and for the global Internet advertising: wired and mobile market by component can be found within the Executive Summary on page 36.
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North America
Overview
We project Internet and mobile advertising to grow at a 6.4 percent compound annual rate to $35.9 billion in 2013 from $26.3 billion in 2008. Wired Internet advertising will expand by a projected 5.8 percent compounded annually to $32.9 billion. Mobile advertising will double from $1.5 billion in 2008 to $3 billion in 2013, a 15.3 percent compound annual advance.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
We expect Canada to be the faster-growing country during the next five years, with an 8.6 percent compound annual increase to $2.1 billion from $1.4 billion in 2008. Canadas Internet advertising market is at an earlier stage of development, and as a result Canada has grown faster than the United States during the past five years. We expect that pattern to continue.
The US market for wired and mobile Internet advertising will decline in 2009 and then will rebound, returning to double-digit annual growth during 201213. For the five-year forecast period as a whole, we project that the market for wired and mobile Internet advertising in the United States will expand at a 6.3 percent compound annual rate to $33.8 billion in 2013 from $24.9 billion in 2008.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
The Internet also has become an entertainment center where people play video games, download music and movies, and watch television. People spend time at entertainment sites, and such sites are attracting advertising. Online television shows, which include embedded ads, are becoming popular and are providing an additional outlet for advertisers. The economic stimulus package in the United States includes funds for investment in the broadband infrastructure, which will enable broadband to penetrate rural areas, further expanding the audience and opening up additional opportunities for advertisers. For these reasons, we believe the long-run outlook for online advertising is bright. In the near term, however, the Internet will be affected by the economy. Internet advertising weakened in 2008although it remained much stronger than other advertising media. In the United States, growth fell to 10.6 percent in 2008 from 25.6 percent in 2007. Canada also continued to expand by double digits in 2008, but the increase was less than half the percentage gain in 2007.
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Ad rates for display advertising plunged in the United States in the fourth quarter of 2008 and fell in Canada as well. Display ads online are static and similar to display ads in print. The do not take advantage of the search capabilities of the Internet and were affected similarly to the print market. Although display ads can be sold on a performance basis and can target specific audiences, those features were not enough to prevent a slowdown. Display ad spending in the United States rose by 8 percent in 2008, well below the 19.9 percent increase in 2007. We expect the fourth-quarter weakness to continue in 2009 and project a full-year decline of 16.8 percent followed by an additional 6.3 percent drop in 2010. With the economy expected to begin to recover in 2011 and to post solid gains in 201213, we expect display advertising to stabilize and then post mid- to high-single-digit spending gains, benefiting from the overall expansion in advertising. Although projected to expand, we look for video, classifieds, and search to be the most attractive formats for advertisers seeking an online presence, because these formats tap into the fastest growth areas of the Internet. Consequently,
the anticipated recovery in display advertising in the United States in 201113 will not be sufficient to offset the near-term declines, and display advertising of $4.4 billion in 2013 will be 2 percent lower on a compound annual basis from $4.8 billion in 2008. Display advertising constitutes a larger component of the market in Canada33.2 percentcompared with 19.3 percent in the United States. We also look for display advertising to decline in Canada during the next two years, although at a slower rate than in the US, as display is holding up better in Canada. There has not been as pronounced an increase in online display inventory in Canada as in the US, and online display ad rates have not fallen as sharply. Consequently, we expect a smaller decline in Canada during the next two years than in the US. Thereafter, display will rebound and will return to double-digit growth during 201213, expanding at a 4.7 percent compound annual rate for the forecast period as a whole to $581 million in 2013. Overall display advertising to North America will fall at a 1.3 percent compound annual rate from $5.3 billion in 2008 to $4.9 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Interactive Advertising Bureau, Interactive Advertising Bureau of Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Interactive Advertising Bureau, Interactive Advertising Bureau of Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Classified advertising is typically one of the most cyclically sensitive of the advertising categories. The economic downturn is cutting into classified spending in all media. Although classified advertising has been moving to the Internet, which has contributed to overall Internet advertising growth, it too will be affected by the economic downturn. Online classified advertising in the United States fell by 3.3 percent in 2008, and we anticipate declines during the next two years. We then look for a return to doubledigit gains during 201213 as the economy returns to a steady growth path. Classified advertising is typically a volatile category during periods of economic transition, and we expect large swings during the next five years.
Online classified advertising in the United States will total an estimated $3.9 billion in 2013 from $3.3 billion in 2008, a 3.5 percent increase compounded annually. Online classified advertising in Canada slowed to a 14 percent increase in 2008. We look for this category to decline during the next two years and then to rebound strongly with double-digit growth during 201213. Online classified advertising in Canada will total $441 million in 2013 from $326 million in 2008, a 6.2 percent increase compounded annually. Online classified advertising for the region as a whole will increase to $4.3 billion in 2013 from $3.6 billion in 2008, a 3.8 percent gain compounded annually.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Interactive Advertising Bureau, Interactive Advertising Bureau of Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Interactive Advertising Bureau, Interactive Advertising Bureau of Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Search advertising is the largest online category in both the United States and Canada, constituting 45 percent of total wired Internet advertising in the United States in 2008 and 40 percent in Canada. Search enables advertisers to direct their messages to the identified interests of users as reflected by the searches users initiate. No other media can provide a comparable platform. Despite the impact of the economy in 2008, search advertising rose by 20.2 percent in North America.
Although we expect the recession to cut into spending on search advertising, we look for this category to continue to expand. In both countries, we project a drop to single-digit gains during the next two years followed by a return to double-digit growth during 201113 in the United States and during 201213 in Canada. Spending on search advertising will increase at a 9.7 percent compound annual rate in the United States to $16.6 billion in 2013. Search advertising in Canada will grow by 10.2 percent compounded annually to $872 million. The overall market will total $17.5 billion in 2013, up 9.7 percent on a compound annual basis.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Interactive Advertising Bureau, Interactive Advertising Bureau of Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Interactive Advertising Bureau, Interactive Advertising Bureau of Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Online video advertising also is expanding. Rising broadband penetration and increased broadband speeds are making video advertising a feasible option. Video streaming of TV shows that contain video ads are facilitating video advertising, as is the popularity of video sites such as Hulu, Joost, Veoh, and YouTube, as well as television network Web-video sites. Video advertising rose by 10.8 percent in the United States in 2008 and doubled from a tiny base in Canada.
As with search, we expect video advertising to hold up during the economic downturn and to accelerate when the economy recovers. We project video advertising spend in North America to grow at an 8.4 percent compound annual rate to $3.5 billion in 2013 from $2.4 billion in 2008. The US will average 8.3 percent compounded annually, and Canada will advance at a 23 percent compound annual rate from a very small base.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Interactive Advertising Bureau, Interactive Advertising Bureau of Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Interactive Advertising Bureau, Interactive Advertising Bureau of Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
We expect declines in display and classified to offset gains in search and video in 2009, with the result that overall wired Internet advertising will decrease. We expect a 3.9 percent decline in 2009, with the US falling by 4 percent and Canada by 3.5 percent. Spending will edge up in 2010 as gains in search and video offset declines in display and classified. In both countries we expect mid-single-digit increases in 2011 and double-digit growth in 201213.
Including e-mail, sponsorships, lead generation, and other categories, wired online advertising for the overall forecast period will advance at a 5.8 percent compound annual rate to $32.9 billion in 2013 from $24.8 billion in 2008. The United States will increase at a 5.7 percent rate compounded annually to $30.9 billion, and Canada will grow by 7.7 percent on a compound annual basis to $2 billion.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Interactive Advertising Bureau, Interactive Advertising Bureau of Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Sources: Interactive Advertising Bureau, Interactive Advertising Bureau of Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Mobile advertising
Advertising delivered to mobile phones has grown rapidly in recent years, with spending virtually doubling in 2008. Growth is being fueled by the mobile carriers adoption of nonintrusive, consumer-friendly advertising formats; by an increase in the number of people accessing the Internet through mobile phones; and by the increasing penetration of handsets that can accommodate video advertising. There were 10 million mobile Internet subscribers in North America in 2008, up from 6 million in 2007. We expect that figure to double to 20 million in 2009 and to increase to 30 million in 2010. The popularity of the new generation of smart phonesmost notably the iPhoneis contributing to mobile access growth. Smart phones make it easier to navigate the Internet, and improvements in the wireless infrastructure are producing faster download speeds. Smart phones also provide a better platform for mobile ads because of their larger screens compared with standard handsets. The market also will benefit from development of mobile advertising standards. We expect that when the economy begins to pick up, and as penetration of smart phones increases, the mobile access market will accelerate. We estimate there will be 99 million mobile access subscribers in North America in 2013, with 8 million of that total in Canada.
Text message advertising is still the dominant format, with banner ads the next-most-popular platform. Some providers offer wireless telephone subscribers the option of accepting advertising in return for free text messaging. Currently, only about a third of mobile sites sell advertising to third parties. We expect that percentage to increase as mobile carriers and consumers become more comfortable with mobile advertising formats and opt-in consumer policies and as traffic to those sites expands. We also expect that the video ad will become a more popular format as the number of people capable of accessing video ads increases. Click-through rates for mobile video ads are much higher than for mobile display ads.
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Mobile television will also help drive mobile advertising. Mobile television subscription revenues are unlikely to be large enough to offset incremental content production and distribution costs, so providers will be looking to advertising to turn profits. This will lead to a more concerted effort to sell mobile television ads. Although ads need to be shorter than on traditional television, and ad pods are not likely to be tolerated, growth in the mobile television market will propel overall mobile advertising. The economy will have an impact on the mobile advertising market. We expect growth in the United States to drop to single digits during the next two years and then to revert to double-digit gains. Mobile advertising will rise from $1.4 billion in 2008 to $2.9 billion in 2013, a 14.8 percent compound annual increase.
In Canada, the mobile advertising market is just getting started. We expect that consumers would welcome a trade-off of advertising for lower-cost plans. We look for annual increases of less than 30 percent during the next three years, representing a slower percentage increase compared with 200708, followed by annual gains of more than 45 percent in 2012 and 2013. By 2013, mobile advertising will total an estimated $134 million, a 34 percent compound annual increase from $31 million in 2008. The overall mobile advertising market will expand at a 15.3 percent compound annual rate, from $1.5 billion in 2008 to $3 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Overview
Internet and mobile advertising in EMEA will grow by 6.6 percent compounded annually to $28.1 billion in 2013 from $20.4 billion in 2008. Wired online advertising will advance at a 5.4 percent compound annual rate to $25.2 billion in 2013 from $19.4 billion in 2008. Mobile advertising will expand from $1.1 billion in 2008 to $2.9 billion in 2013, a 22.3 percent compound annual increase.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Western Europe will decline by 5.4 percent in 2009 and hold steady in 2010 with a 1.4 percent advance. The market will then recover and expand at an 11.1 percent compound annual rate to $24.6 billion in 2013, which will be 5.6 percent higher on a compound annual basis than 2008s $18.7 billion. Central and Eastern Europe will be the fastest-growing area in EMEA, with a 15.8 percent compound annual increase to $2.9 billion from $1.4 billion in 2008. Middle East/Africa will expand at a 13.5 percent rate compounded annually from $314 million in 2008 to $591 million in 2013. The United Kingdom was the leading territory in 2008, at $6.5 billion, representing 32 percent of all wired and
mobile Internet advertising in EMEA. Germany was second, at $3.9 billion, followed by France at $1.7 billion, the Netherlands at $1.2 billion, and Italy at $1.1 billion. While we do not expect decreases in 2009 in Central and Eastern Europe and Middle East/Africa, we do anticipate slow growth. Central and Eastern Europe will expand at high-single-digit rates during the next two years, and Middle East/Africa will average mid-singledigit gains. Central and Eastern Europe and Middle East/Africa will return to double-digit annual gains beginning in 2011, while Western Europe will improve to double-digit growth in 2012.
159
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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In contrast with search and classifieds, the Internet does not offer any particular technological advantage for display advertising compared with other media. With the slowing economy, display spending growth slowed to 5.6 percent in 2008 from increases of more than 30 percent annually during the prior four years. During a period of advertising cutbacks, we expect that advertisers are more likely to stay with established brand-building media, such as television, than with less proven media for establishing brand identity, such as the Internet. Accordingly, we project a 12.4 percent decline in display advertising in 2009 and a further, 5.2 percent decrease in 2010. With overall advertising expected to be increasing during 201113 as the economy rebounds, we expect online display advertising will benefit as well. Spending will stabilize in 2011 and then grow at low- to mid-single-digit rates during the subsequent two years. The projected $4.8-billion total for 2013 will be 1.4 percent lower on a compound annual basis than the $5.1 billion in 2008. Video advertising and other advertising is a small category, at $271 million, only 1.4 percent of total wired Internet advertising in 2008. With the growth in video streaming and high-speed broadband, we expect this category to expand. We expect the impact of upgraded broadband networks to offset the economy in 2009 and project an 8.9 percent increase in video advertising and other advertising. As fiber networks are deployed and as the economy improves, we expect growth to accelerate. By 2013, video and other advertising will total an estimated $655 million, a 19.3 percent compound annual increase from 2008. In 2009, declines in display and classified advertising will offset increases in search and video/other, resulting in a 4.8 percent decrease in overall wired Internet advertising. In 2010, we look for gains in search and video/other to offset continued declines in display and classifieds, leading to a modest, 1.1 percent gain. Thereafter, increases in each category will propel the overall market. We project growth to improve to 8 percent in 2011 and to double-digit gains during 2012 and 2013. Overall wired Internet advertising will expand at a 5.4 percent compound annual rate to $25.2 billion in 2013 from $19.4 billion in 2008.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Wired Internet advertising in Western Europe grew at double-digit rates through 2008, principally because audiences are still expanding and it is gaining share from other media. Nevertheless, its principal underlying driver, growth in broadband households, is slowing, and the market is beginning to approach maturity. Western Europe is therefore more affected by economic conditions than the other areas in EMEA are. We expect spending to fall by 5.9 percent in 2009 and to rise by only 0.4 percent in 2010. Growth will rebound thereafter and will reach double-digit gains in 201213, but we do not expect a return to the 30-percent-plus gains that characterized 200407. Wired Internet advertising in Western Europe will increase at a 4.5 percent compound annual rate to $22.1 billion in 2013 from $17.8 billion in 2008.
Internet advertising is a developing market in Central and Eastern Europe and in Middle East/Africa. Both areas are still experiencing large gains in their broadband universes, as well as a rapidly growing audience for online advertising. We expect that the positive impact of a growing audience will offset the negative impact of a weaker economy, and we look for both areas to grow during the next two years. We look for a 7.4 percent annual increase in Central and Eastern Europe and a 5.2 percent annual gain in Middle East/ Africa from 2008 to 2010. Thereafter, we expect a return to double-digit growth in both areas during 201113. For the overall forecast period, we expect Central and Eastern Europe will increase from $1.3 billion in 2008 to $2.6 billion in 2013, growing at a 14.5 percent compound annual rate. Middle East/Africa will total $529 million in 2013 from $297 million in 2008, a 12.2 percent compound annual increase.
162
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Association of Communications Agencies of Russia, Interactive Advertising Bureau Europe, Interactive Advertising UK, Peako Research, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Mobile advertising
Advertising sent to mobile phones jumped by more than 55 percent in 2008 to $1.1 billion. Most of that total consisted of text message ads. Virtually everyone has a wireless phone capable of receiving text messages and text message advertising. We expect the next phase to be driven by growth in mobile broadband access subscriptions and by display and video advertising. Subscriber growth will in turn be stimulated by faster wireless networks and the introduction of smart phones that make it easier to navigate the Internet. We expect the number of mobile Internet subscribers in EMEA to more than triple during the next five years to 278 million from 83 million in 2008. In addition to driving subscriptions, smart phones provide a better platform for mobile ads because their screens are larger and they can accommodate video.
Mobile TV rollouts will also drive mobile advertising. Providers are moving toward an advertiser-supported model for mobile TV and relying less on subscriptions. In the process, they are ramping up their ad sales efforts. Mobile ad networks are also being introduced. These are media-buying companies that place ads on a number of Web sites on behalf of their clients. This means clients need deal with only one entity instead of hundreds of separate Web sites. Telefnica, for example, is creating a system in conjunction with Amobee that will provide a single contact for advertisers to buy ads that reach subscribers on multiple platforms. The system is being launched in Spain and the United Kingdom before other countries in Europe. The economy will also affect the mobile market, but we expect that will manifest in slower growth, not a downturn. We project mobile advertising in Western Europe, which accounts for virtually all of the spending, to grow by 2.8 percent in 2009 compared with a 53.4 percent increase in 2008. We then look for a return to double-digit growth and a five-year average of 21.1 percent compounded annually to $2.5 billion from $974 million in 2008. Central and Eastern Europe will average 33.1 percent compound annual growth from $71 million in 2008 to $297 million in 2013. Middle East/Africa has a small mobile advertising market, at $17 million in 2008. We project that by 2013, mobile advertising will total $62 million, a 29.5 percent compound annual increase. Total mobile advertising in EMEA will reach an estimated $2.9 billion in 2013, a 22.3 percent compound annual increase.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Asia Pacific
Overview
The Internet and mobile advertising market will expand at an 11.2 percent compound annual rate to $21.2 billion in 2013 from $12.5 billion in 2008. Wired Internet advertising will grow by 9.9 percent compounded annually, rising from $11.3 billion in 2008 to $18.1 billion in 2013. Mobile advertising will total $3.1 billion in 2013, rising at a 21.2 percent compound annual rate from $1.2 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Japan is the largest market in Asia Pacific, at $7.3 billion in 2008, nearly 60 percent of the total in Asia Pacific. The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) is next, at $2 billion, followed by Australia at $1.4 billion and South Korea at $1.2 billion. There is a huge gap between the top four countries and the rest of the region. No other country reached $200 million in 2008, and only three countries were larger
than $100 million, the largest of which was Taiwan, at $167 million. New Zealand was next, at $136 million, followed by Malaysia at $101 million. During the next five years, Japan will be the principal driver, generating 44 percent of the cumulative growth, with the PRC accounting for 30 percent of the total increase.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
been sluggish, wired Internet advertising increased by 10 percent in 2008, due mainly to expansion in search engine advertising and online video advertising through free video-on-demand sites. During the 200507 period, online advertising growth outpaced broadband subscriber growth, reflecting the generally expanding economy in Asia Pacific and the extensive usage of Internet cafs by users who did not have access to either dial-up or broadband services. Typically, advertising tends to grow faster than the underlying audience growthin this case represented by broadband household growthwhen the economy is expanding, but slower when the economy is struggling or contracting. In 2008, advertising growth fell behind broadband subscriber growth as economic conditions weakened.
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We expect that wired Internet advertising will decline in 2009 in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, reflecting the weak economy. Recent data released by the China Internet Network Information Center indicated that the number of users in the PRC had risen by 41 percent in the past year to 298 million, or 22 percent of the entire population. Rural usage of the Internet is the fastest growing. Tencent is now the most visited site in Asia Pacific, with 159 million users, and Baidu now claims 152 million users. While the economies in the PRC and India should continue to expand, growth will be noticeably slower than in 2008. Although we project doubledigit gains in both countries in 2009, growth will be substantially below the projected increase in broadband subscriptions, reflecting the impact of a slowing economy on online advertising. In the PRC, we expect a 21 percent increase in broadband households compared with a 15 percent increase in online advertising. In 2008, by contrast, broadband households in the PRC increased by 29.5 percent, while online advertising rose by 40 percent. Similarly, in India, online advertising growth will drop to a projected 19 percent in 2009, well below the anticipated 58 percent increase in broadband households. We expect overall wired Internet advertising to grow by only 4 percent in 2009 compared with a 16.4 percent increase in broadband households.
We expect the weak economy to continue to depress online advertising in 2010 and project a 4.8 percent increase, still well below the 14.5 percent expected growth in broadband households. Improved economic conditions in 2011 will lead to a pickup in online advertising. The projected 9.9 percent gain will be comparable to the 11.6 percent rise in broadband. By 201213, we expect the economic recovery to be in full swing, which will propel online advertising. We project annual gains in excess of 15 percent compared with around 11 percent growth in broadband households, marking a return to the pattern of 2005 07, when advertising growth outpaced broadband household growth. With broadband household growth moderating, we expect online advertising growth during the recovery years to be slower than during 200407, when the broadband market was growing much faster. During the next five years as a whole, wired Internet advertising will expand at a 9.9 percent compound annual rate compared with 12.8 percent growth compounded annually for broadband households. Wired Internet advertising in 2013 will total an estimated $18.1 billion from $11.3 billion in 2008.
Wired Internet advertising and broadband household growth in Asia Pacific (%)
100 80 60 40 20 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Broadband households Wired Internet advertising
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: Commercial Economic Advisory Service of Australia, Dentsu, Interactive Advertising Bureau New Zealand, Korea Broadcasting Advertising Corporation, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Mobile advertising
Mobile advertising totaled $1.2 billion in 2008, more than 80 percent of which was in Japan, with 70 percent of the remainder in South Korea. In both countries, around 80 percent of wireless telephone subscribers use their handsets to access the Internet, making these countries attractive markets for mobile advertisers. Mobile advertising totaled nearly $1 billion in Japan and $158 million in South Korea. Just as broadband growth will drive wired online advertising, we expect mobile access growth to drive mobile advertising. Expected restructuring in the PRC in 2009 will allow carriers to invest more in their networks and introduce third-generation (3G) services.
Spectrum auctions in India scheduled for 2009 will lead to upgraded wireless networks and an emerging mobile advertising market. Australia is also expanding its 3G infrastructure. Growth in 2009 will be less in Japan and South Korea, reflecting the economic downturn in Japan and the already high penetration rate in South Korea. In the Philippines, the mobile advertising market is still in its early stages pending the implementation of guidelines from the industry regulator: the National Telecommunications Commission. Mobile operator Smart ventured into mobile advertising campaigns in 2007 and launched its advertising-funded mobile service in May 2008. The company believes the mobile advertising growth curve will be only gradual, since 70 percent of its target audience still primarily watches television.
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Overall, the number of people accessing the Internet through their mobile phones in Asia Pacific rose to nearly 200 million in 2008. Around half of them were in the PRC. We expect that figure to more than double during the next five years to 549.8 million by 2013. Mobile TV rollouts will also fuel mobile advertising. Mobile TV has been available in South Korea and Japan for several years and was introduced in Australia in 2008. A mobile TV launch also is anticipated in the PRC in 2009. We expect the mobile TV subscriber base in Asia Pacific to grow to 34.1 million by 2013 from only 2.3 million in 2008.
The mobile TV market is shifting from reliance on subscribers to an advertiser-supported model. Free mobile television in South Korea and Japan has been successful, and we expect advertising to play an important role in mobile television in other countries as well. Currently, mobile advertising is dominated by text messaging ads. Growth in mobile Internet access and mobile television will create a platform for display and video ads. Display and video ads are more effective and command higher prices. As these formats expand, overall spending will increase. The mobile advertising market will not be immune from the effects of the economy. We expect growth in 2009 to drop to 5.2 percent from 78 percent in 2008. We then anticipate a relatively modest, 9.5 percent advance in 2010 from a small base. Thereafter, improved economic conditions combined with accelerating growth in mobile access and mobile television will drive mobile advertising. We look for annual increases to exceed 30 percent by 201213. For the forecast period as a whole, we project mobile advertising to expand at a 21.2 percent compound annual rate, rising to $3.1 billion by 2013. Japan will continue to dominate the market with a projected $2.2 billion in 2013, 71 percent of the total.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Latin America
Overview
We expect wired and mobile Internet advertising in Latin America to grow at a 17.4 percent compound annual rate from its currently small base, rising to $1.5 billion in 2013 from $660 million in 2008. Wired Internet advertising will increase to $1.3 billion in 2013 from $631 million in 2008, a 15.4 percent compound annual increase. Mobile advertising will total an estimated $185 million in 2013, up 44.9 percent on a compound annual basis from $29 million in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Brazil is the largest market in the region, at $441 million in 2008, two-thirds of the total. Mexico was a distant
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
These investments will make broadband available to more households, which we expect will lead to a significant expansion in the broadband household base. The number of broadband households rose by 30 percent in 2008 to 20 million. We expect that total to more than double during the next five years to nearly 44 million in 2013.
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Wired Internet advertising in Mexico will nearly double from $99 million in 2008 to $189 million in 2013, a 13.8 percent compound annual increase. While we also expect double-digit broadband household growth in the remaining countries, a small household base will limit the advertising potential. We project wired Internet advertising growth in the rest of the region to average 9.5 percent on a compound annual basis. The adverse economic climate will cut into growth during the next two years. We look for gains to average 7 percent compounded annually in 200910 compared with 21 percent in 2008. Thereafter, as economic conditions improve, growth will accelerate at a 21.3 percent compound annual rate from 2010 to 2013. For the forecast period as a whole, wired Internet advertising will increase by 15.4 percent on a compound annual basis. Spending will rise to $1.3 billion from $631 million in 2008.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
There will be an estimated 20 million broadband households in Brazil in 2013 and 11 million in Mexico, totals that are large enough to attract advertisers. We expect Brazils wired Internet advertising market to more than double to an estimated $925 million in 2013 from $421 million in 2008. Brazil will be the fastest-growing market, with a 17.1 percent compound annual increase.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Mobile advertising
Latin America is also upgrading its wireless infrastructure. Carriers in virtually every country launched 3G services during the past two years, and coverage is expected to expand during the next few years.
Growth in 3G availability will expand a tiny mobile Internet access market. There were 5 million mobile access subscribers in 2008. We expect that total to nearly double by 2010 and then to quadruple from 2010 to 2013, rising to 41 million during the next five years. That increase will substantially expand the potential audience for mobile advertising.
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2010
2011
2012
2013
Wireless network upgrades also will facilitate the introduction of mobile television. Currently, only Brazil has mobile television. We expect mobile TV launches in Mexico and Chile in 2009 and in Argentina in 2010. Although small at present, increases in the mobile TV subscriber base during 2012 and 2013 will attract mobile advertisers.
Mobile ad networks are being introduced in Mexico and Colombia by Telefnica. In conjunction with Amobee, Telefnica is providing a single contact for advertisers to buy ads that reach subscribers on multiple platforms. In 2008, mobile advertising totaled $29 million, $20 million of which was generated in Brazil. We project that by 2013, mobile advertising will total an estimated $185 million, a 44.9 percent compound annual increase from 2008.
2006 1 5 1 1 8
2007 1 13 2 3 19
2008p 2 20 2 5 29
2009 3 24 3 6 1 37
2010 3 32 1 3 7 1 47
2011 4 49 1 4 11 1 70
2012 7 84 1 7 18 2 119
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178 Summary 179 North America 191 Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA) 215 Asia Pacific 232 Latin America
Summary
Principal drivers
In each region, the weak economy will lead to slower growth in 2009 and 2010, while the expected economic recovery will drive spending during 201113. Subscribers upgrading from analog to digital multichannel video will boost video-on-demand. VOD growth will largely come at the expense of pay-per-view. Free mobile TV services will cut into the potential for subscription spending on mobile television. Internet protocol television (IPTV)which contributes to subscription spending, VOD, and pay-perviewwill be the fastest-growing subscription technology in each region. In EMEA, free digital terrestrial television (DTT) services will limit subscription spending.
Data for the global television subscriptions and license fee market by region and for the global television subscriptions and license fee market by component can be found within the Executive Summary on pages 37 and 38.
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North America
Overview
Overall spending in North America will rise to $97.3 billion in 2013, growing at a 5.4 percent compound annual rate. Subscription spending will total $88.8 billion in 2013, also a 5.4 percent compound annual increase. Pay-per-view will decline by 1.2 percent compounded annually, falling to $2.9 billion in 2013. Video-on-demand will pass pay-per-view in 2010 and reach $4.7 billion in 2013, a 10.8 percent compound annual increase. Mobile TV will decline in the near term and then will rebound with double-digit annual gains, rising to $852 million in 2013 for a 9.5 percent compound annual increase. However, mobile TV revenues in North America will not exceed their 2008 level until 2012.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Growth in both the United States and Canada will slow to low-single-digit gains during 200910 as the weak economy cuts into growth. The United States will grow faster than Canada in the near term as the analog switch-off in 2009 provides a boost to the subscription television market.
Canada will benefit from growth in digital households and the introduction of mobile television during 201112 but will remain the slower-growing country, averaging 3.8 percent compounded annually to $5.4 billion in 2013 from $4.5 billion in 2008. The United States will expand at a 5.5 percent compound annual rate, rising from $70.3 billion in 2008 to $91.8 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
TV subscriptions
TV subscriptions consist of fees paid by households and are distinct from carriage fees paid by providers to carry programming. The economy has a varied impact on the television subscription market. On one hand, people tend to stay home more during economic downturns, and television viewing generally rises. Television subscriptions also tend to have a degree of stickiness. For these reasons, we do not expect a downturn in subscriptions. At the same time, fewer people are likely to take on new subscriptions and incur new expenses, which is why we expect slower growth in the near term. There also is a tendency to save on discretionary outlays such as premium services, pay-per-view, and video-on-demand
while maintaining basic subscriptions. We therefore expect slower subscription growth and declining spending per household on premium subscriptions, which will translate into slower growth in subscription spending during 2009 and 2010. On the upside of the economic cycle, spending on discretionary services tends to rise. We expect that development to lead to accelerated growth during the latter part of the forecast period. Gains in telephone company/IPTV TV subscriptions in North America will be the principal driver of overall TV subscription growth during the next five years, adding a total of 15.8 million subscribers. In contrast, cable, satellite, and other providers will add fewer than 1 million subscribers.
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The United States is ahead of Canada with respect to IPTV rollouts, and we expect that the United States will generate a larger increase in the subscription market than Canada will. Subscription growth in the US will be boosted by faster growth in IPTV households and an overall pickup in reaction to the analog shutdown. By 2011, subscription household penetration in the United States will overtake Canada and will rise to 95.5 percent by 2013. The number of subscription households in the United States will increase at a 3 percent compound annual rate to 114.1 million in 2013. In Canada, subscription household penetration will rise to 92.2 percent in 2013, with subscription household growth averaging 1.4 percent compounded annually to 11.9 million in 2013. Most of that increase will occur from 2011 to 2013, reflecting the impact of an expanding economy and IPTV rollouts. The total subscription TV household market in North America will increase from 109.5 million in 2008 to 126 million in 2013, growing by 2.8 percent compounded annually. Penetration will increase from 87.1 percent to 95.2 percent.
The subscription TV household universe as a whole totaled 98.4 million in the United States in 2008 for a penetration rate of 86.8 percent. In Canada, penetration was 89.5 percent, with 11.1 million subscription households.
Sources: Canadian Cable Telecommunications Association, Federal Communications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Canadian Cable Telecommunications Association, Federal Communications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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IPTV
Incumbent telephone companies in the United States and Canada have been losing telephone subscribers during this decade, with many of those losses going to cable companies that began offering telephone service. Cables advantage was its ability to package television in a triple-play service that includes broadband and telephone. In recent years, regulatory restrictions that effectively prevented telephone companies from participating in the television market became relaxed. In the United States, Verizon and AT&T each initiated aggressive programs to offer television. Verizons FiOS (Fiber Optic Service) is expected to be available to 18 million homes by 2010. AT&Ts U-verse network is expected to be available to around 30 million homes by 2012. In 2008, there were 2.2 million IPTV subscribers. In Canada, telephone companies entered the television distribution market in 2005. The established broadband infrastructure and high broadband subscribership rate in Canada provide telephone companies with a platform for IPTV. They had attracted 200,000 subscribers by 2007, but a pause in the rollout of IPTV led to a flat market in 2008. Telephone companies have been making inroads in the cable and satellite markets in areas where those
markets are available. We expect that as their footprints expand and as availability grows, they will continue to gain subscribers, although their take-up will be circumscribed because their reach will remain only a fraction that of cable and satellite. In Canada, limited availability in the near term will restrain growth in the number of IPTV subscribers. There are several regional IPTV offerings, but difficulty in obtaining financing is restraining rollouts. By 2011, the economy will strengthen, financing will become available, and investment in IPTV will increase. Moreover, the scheduled analog shutdown should spur demand for subscription services, including IPTV. Bell Canada plans to launch an IPTV service by 2011, which should boost penetration. We expect that the Bell rollout and expansion by Telus will make IPTV available to more households, and there will be more IPTV subscribers, which will accelerate IPTV growth during 201113. Although IPTV will remain the smallest component of the market, we expect it will be the fastest growing. We project the number of telephone company TV subscribers will rise to 17 million in the United States and to 1.2 million in Canada for a total of 18.2 million in North America by 2013. Penetration in North America will increase from 1.9 percent in 2008 to 13.7 percent in 2013.
Sources: Canadian Cable Telecommunications Association, Federal Communications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Canadian Cable Telecommunications Association, Federal Communications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Cable
In 2009, the analog shutdown in the United States originally scheduled for February but postponed until Junewill provide a boost to the cable and satellite markets, as well as to telco video services. In Canada, the analog shutdown is scheduled for 2011 and will provide a similar boost. Households that get their programming over the air on one or more sets will be disenfranchised unless they get a digital TV set or a converter box or they upgrade to a subscription service. We expect a portion of those households will upgrade to cable, although the recession will limit the take-up. Following the projected boost in 2009, the cable universe will remain flat in 2010 and then grow at modest rates, helped by an expanding economy and a growing base of TV households. By 2013, there will be an estimated 65.3 million cable households in the United States, up 0.3 percent compounded annually from 64.3 million in 2008. In Canada, a stall in the pace of telephone company rollouts means that there is relatively little incremental competition from telephone companies at the present time. Meanwhile, a surge in digital cable subscribership is propelling the cable market.
Beginning in September 2011, cable and satellite providers in Canada will be permitted to provide moreflexible packages, including rival news and sports networks. Households will be able to select which channels they want as long as half of the package consists of Canadian channels. The greater flexibility should make subscription services in general more appealing and will help cable retain its subscriber base despite growing competition from IPTV. There was a 200,000 increase in cable households in Canada in 2008, and we expect another 200,000 gain in 2009. Thereafter, the cable market will stabilize as IPTV begins to attract some subscribers from cable. We expect there will be 8.6 million cable households in Canada in 2013 from 8.3 million in 2008, a 0.7 percent increase compounded annually. The overall cable universe in North America will rise from 72.6 million in 2008 to 73.9 million in 2013, growing at a 0.4 percent compound annual rate. Cable household growth will not keep pace with TV household growth, and penetration will decrease from 57.8 percent in 2008 to 55.8 percent in 2013.
Sources: Canadian Cable Telecommunications Association, Federal Communications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Canadian Cable Telecommunications Association, Federal Communications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Satellite
Satellite providers in the United States generally offer more channels, including more high-definition (HD) channels, than do cable operators, and their rates are generally lower. In the United States, the number of satellite households rose by 7.1 million to 31.9 million from 2004 to 2008. We expect that total to stabilize in the United States during the next two years, as the deteriorating economic environment limits expansion. We then look for an increase in 2011, as economic conditions improve, followed by a decline thereafter as telephone company expansion cuts into the satellite market. By 2013, the US satellite universe will dip to 31.8 million, down 0.1 percent compounded annually from 2008.
In Canada, the satellite market expanded by 17 percent from 2004 to 2006. In 2007, growth in the satellite market flattened as IPTV began to compete for, and attract, subscribers in areas where it was available. In 2008, satellite began to decline as cable picked up. We expect continued decreases during the next five years, reflecting losses to IPTV and digital cable. By 2013, there will be an estimated 2.1 million satellite households in Canada, down 4.2 percent on a compound annual basis from 2.6 million in 2008. The overall satellite universe in North America will decrease from 34.5 million in 2008 to 33.9 million in 2013, a 0.4 percent compound annual decline. Satellite penetration of TV households will fall from 27.4 percent to 25.6 percent.
Includes C band, Satellite Master Antenna Television, and wireless cable. Sources: Canadian Cable Telecommunications Association, Federal Communications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Canadian Cable Telecommunications Association, Federal Communications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Subscription spending
In the United States, spending on television subscriptions will increase from $64.1 billion in 2008 to a projected $83.8 billion in 2013, representing a 5.5 percent compound annual increase. Gains will be less than 3 percent annually during 200910 and then will average 7.5 percent compounded annually from 2010 to 2013.
US basic subscription spending will be driven largely by telephone company/IPTV growth, which will account for nearly half of the total growth even though it constituted only 2 percent of the 2008 subscriber base. Telephone company/IPTV basic subscription spending will grow at a 55.8 percent compound annual rate during the next five years compared with low-single-digit growth for cable and direct broadcast satellite (DBS).
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Includes C band, Satellite Master Antenna Television, and wireless cable. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
In Canada, overall subscription spending growth will drop to only 0.2 percent annually during the next two years and then will improve to an average of 5.6 percent compounded annually during the subsequent three years. Over the forecast period as a whole, growth will average 3.4 percent on a compound annual
basis, with spending rising from $4.3 billion in 2008 to $5.1 billion in 2013. Subscription spending for North America as a whole will expand at a 5.4 percent compound annual rate to $88.8 billion in 2013 from $68.4 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Cable Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Cable Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Migration to digital
Within the cable universe, there has been a marked migration of subscribers from analog to digital. (This is distinct from the discontinuation of over-the-air analog broadcasting.) In the United States, around two-thirds of cable subscribers take a digital tier, and in Canada, nearly half are digital subscribers.
The satellite market is all digital, and the emerging telephone company/IPTV subscriber base is digital as well. Digital services allow for more channels than analog services do, which creates opportunities for incremental revenue streams from pay-per-view and video-on-demand. Pay-per-view is also available on analog systems, while VOD is available only on digital systems.
Sources: Canadian Cable Telecommunications Association, Federal Communications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Video-on-demand
The VOD market has evolved into two principal components. There is a free component, reflected in the subscription fee for digital cable that allows viewers to access movies and TV shows that already have been aired. Premium cable networks make this service available to digital subscribers, and cable operators and satellite providers also offer a selection of already-aired content on a VOD basis. In effect, these VOD offerings are equivalent to a hosted digital video recorder (DVR) service. In Canada, cable companies and broadcasters are negotiating licenses for VOD rights for their television shows. Broadcasters want to keep the advertising in the program and generate an additional revenue stream. The principal revenue-producing VOD market consists of viewers who can access on a paid basis a movie
that has yet to appear on cable or broadcast television. In some cases, movies are shown on VOD at or even before their DVD release. This component of the market is not available on satellite. As the digital cable and telephone company/IPTV subscriber base expands, the high-end VOD service will be available to more households, which should expand the market. We expect the potential VOD market for high-end paid services in North America to increase from 49.2 million households in 2008 to 82.6 million in 2013, a cumulative 68 percent increase. Canada will grow by 90 percent to 7.6 million households, while the United States will increase by 66 percent to 75 million households. Cable companies in Canada are pushing to replace their DVR services with VOD, allowing them control over which ads can be skipped. Most DVR services are provided by cable companies in Canada.
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because spending is on an ad hoc basis and no commitment is involved. During the next two years, we expect VOD spending per household to decline, with a rebound anticipated during 201113. The drop in per-household spending will be offset by an expanding household base. Growth will drop to low single digits during the next two years. We then look for a return to double-digit annual growth as the expanding economy and a rising VOD household universe combine to propel spending. The VOD market in the United States will increase to $4.5 billion in 2013 from $2.7 billion in 2008, a 10.7 percent increase compounded annually. In Canada, growth will average 14.9 percent on a compound annual basis to $214 million, twice the level of 2008. The overall North American market will rise from $2.8 billion to $4.7 billion, for a 10.8 percent gain compounded annually.
VOD spending during the past five years has grown at double-digit annual rates, reflecting the rising VOD household universe and rising or stable spending per VOD household. VOD and pay-per-view are even more subject to the economic cycle than premium subscriptions are,
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Cable Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Cable Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Pay-per-view
In addition to its on-demand nature, VOD is more appealing than pay-per-view because it gives viewers control with respect to pause, fast-forward, and rewind features. Cable operators and telephone companies are promoting VOD and putting much less emphasis on pay-per-view. Cable operators in Canada are pushing VOD so they can supply content and insert advertising they can sell. New movies are featured on VOD and are less frequently available on pay-per-view. Pay-per-view on cable is becoming largely an adult movie service. Satellite providers are still featuring mainstream recent releases on pay-per-view. Similarly, analog cable subscribers still have a traditional, if limited, pay-perview menu. In the United States, spending on pay-per-view during the next two years will decrease, reflecting the impact of the economy. We look for the market to stabilize during 201112 as economic conditions improve, and then to decline at an accelerated rate in 2013 as the satellite market takes a downward turn, losing share
to IPTV, and as the analog cable market continues to contract. For the forecast period as a whole, pay-perview spending in the United States will fall at a 1.2 percent compound annual rate to $2.75 billion in 2013 from $2.92 billion in 2008. Canada is a bit behind the US with respect to its payper-view market. Pay-per-view spending has grown at double-digit rates through 2008, while in the US the market has been advancing at single-digit rates for the past three years. We expect the economy to cut into pay-per-view in Canada during the next three years and project modest annual declines of 0.8 percent. The pay-per-view market will then stabilize during 2012 and 2013, and improved economic conditions will provide an upward lift, while the migration away from satellite and analog cable will put downward pressure on spending. Canadas pay-per-view market will remain essentially flat during the next five years, edging down to $123 million in 2013 from $125 million in 2008. Pay-per-view in North America will fall at a 1.2 percent compound annual rate to $2.9 billion from $3 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Cable Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Cable Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Mobile TV
Mobile TV began in the United States in 2006. In Canada, Rogers and Bell offer video clips, but the take-up is currently limited. MobiTV in the United States has a service used by a number of wireless providers, including Sprint Nextel and Alltel. Verizon Wireless introduced a live mobile TV service in 2007 using the MediaFLO technology from Qualcomm. AT&T entered the market in 2008 also using MediaFLO. Mobile TV through MediaFLO was available in more than 50 markets in 2008. The analog shutoff will open up spectrum for mobile television. MediaFLO acquired spectrum on channels 55 and 56 in some markets and will be able to broadcast on those channels without interfering with television channels that will have vacated that spectrum. Power levels can be raised without concern about interference, and the reach of the signal will be enhanced. In Los Angeles, for example, MediaFLO is expected to be able to reach 94 percent of the population when full power can be used, compared with reaching 52 percent of the population in 2008. Meanwhile, television stations are looking to create a new mobile digital television (DTV) standard using the UHF spectrum assigned to them in preparation for the analog shutoff. The Open Mobile Video Coalition (OMVC), a consortium of station groups, is driving the standards effort and conducting field tests. In late 2008, the Advanced Television Systems Committee approved the mobile DTV specification as a Candidate Standard, which means that broadcasters can use that standard to provide live mobile broadcasts on their existing spectrum. Gannett, a member of the OMVC, announced it plans to launch mobile DTV service in Atlanta and Denver. An advantage of DTV is that it operates like a television signal, where the same broadcast can be received by an unlimited number of viewers, rather than as a wireless signal, whereby transmissions to each user consume bandwidth.
Wireless carriers are expected to work with manufacturers to provide handsets for DTVin addition to handsets accommodating MediaFLO or MobiTVbecause DTV will not overload wireless networks. Currently, mobile television consists principally of a limited number of cable channels and a few specialized mobile services from broadcasters. DTV would essentially be a simulcast of a television stations programming, which is not now available. While mobile DTV has the potential to significantly expand the mobile television market, it may cut into subscription spending. Mobile subscribers currently pay around $15 per month for the service. Mobile DTV is likely to be offered for free on an advertisersupported basis. Competition from free services will cut into the paid market. The business model for mobile television is evolving. We expect that it will ultimately resemble the household-based television market in which free and paid services exist side by side, with premium content and a larger array of channels offered on a paid basis. In 2008, spending on mobile television subscriptions in the United States totaled an estimated $540 million. We expect that total to decline during the next two years, in part because of consumer cutbacks in response to the declining economy and in part due to the shift from paid to free services. We look for the market to rebound during 201113 because of an improved economy and the development of a recognizable hybrid market in which people become accustomed to using their wireless devices for television on a free basis and are willing to pay for access to premium content or for services that provide more channels. We expect US mobile subscription spending to fall to $486 million in 2010 and then to rise to $810 million in 2013, 8.4 percent higher on a compound annual basis than in 2008.
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In Canada, the evolution to next-generation networks is accelerating. An auction for advanced wireless spectrum was completed in July 2008, raising around $4 billion. Telus and BCE are jointly spending more than $900 million to upgrade their wireless networks using the new spectrum. The creation of a new wireless infrastructure is expected to pave the way for the introduction of mobile television.
We expect mobile TV in Canada to begin to gain momentum in 2010 with a slow take-up rate. As in the United States, we expect subscription services to be competing with free services. We project subscription spending to increase from $4 million in 2010 to $42 million in 2013. The overall mobile television subscription market in North America will total a projected $852 million in 2013, representing a 9.5 percent compound annual increase from 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: Cable Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Cable Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Overview
The TV subscription and license fee market in EMEA will expand at a 5.4 percent compound annual rate to $96.7 billion in 2013 from $74.3 billion in 2008. Subscriptions will grow at a 6.2 percent compound annual rate to $64.4 billion in 2013. Video-on-demand in Western Europe will more than double from 2010 to 2013 and will average a 22.1 percent compound annual increase to $3.4 billion in 2013 from $1.2 billion in 2008. Pay-per-view in Western Europe will total an estimated $1 billion in 2013, down 0.7 percent on a compound annual basis. Public TV license fees will expand at a 1.9 percent compound annual rate to $26.5 billion in 2013 from $24.1 billion in 2008. Mobile television subscription spending will total an estimated $1.4 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
191
Western Europe will grow at a 5.3 percent rate compounded annually, with spending reaching $86.6 billion in 2013. Central and Eastern Europe will grow at a projected 7 percent rate on a compound annual basis to $6.7 billion in 2013.
Middle East/Africa will average 5.6 percent compounded annually to $3.4 billion in 2013. The United Kingdom is the largest market in the region, at $15.7 billion in 2008, followed by Germany at $12.3 billion and France at $10 billion, in each case buoyed by large public TV license fees. Together, the top three countries account for 51 percent of total spending in EMEA and 60 percent of public TV license fees.
192
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
193
Subscription spending
The proliferation of free digital terrestrial television in EMEA and the availability of free satellite services in several countries have cut into subscription TV household growth during the past three years. After growing by more than 7 percent annually during 200405, growth slowed to an average of 4.9 percent compounded annually during the past three years. The deteriorating economic environment will further cut into subscription household growth during the next two years. A decline in discretionary income and the desire of households to increase their savings will dampen demand to add another monthly expense. We expect that reluctance to have two effects. There will be (1) a slower take-up rate for new subscriptions and (2) cutbacks in premium services, pay-per-view, and video-on-demand. At the same time, people tend to stay home more during economic downturns, and television viewing generally rises. Consequently, we do not anticipate any widespread cancellation of basic subscription services. We project slower subscription household growth during the next two years and slower growth in spending per household. With respect to subscription households, we expect annual increases to drop to less than 2 percent annually. When economic conditions improve, which we expect during 201113, spending on discretionary services tends to rise. We expect that development to lead to faster subscription household growth, with increases climbing to 4.2 percent in 2011 and to more than 5 percent during 201213. We also expect faster growth in spending per household as more households trade up to digital services and spend more on premium services. Helping offset the impact of the economic cycle is the appeal of triple-play services and the desire for increased content. Cable companies have invested billions in recent years in upgrading their plants to enable them to offer telephone service, enhanced broadband, and digital television in a combined package that offers implicit discounts for each component when purchased together.
The overall number of subscription households will increase at a 2.9 percent compound annual rate in Western Europe, by 4 percent compounded annually in Middle East/Africa, and at a 5.3 percent compound annual rate in Central and Eastern Europe. By 2013 there will be an estimated 98.7 million subscription households in Western Europe from 85.4 million in 2008. Subscription TV household penetration will climb to 57.7 percent from 51.7 percent in 2008. Central and Eastern Europe will expand from 33.8 million in 2008 to 43.7 million in 2013. Penetration will increase to 43.6 percent from 34.7 percent. Middle East/Africa has the highest subscription TV penetration of the three areas of EMEA, at 72.6 percent in 2008. Penetration is high in Israel and Saudi Arabia/ Pan Arab, and there are fewer free services available. Subscription households will rise from 30.8 million in 2008 to 37.4 million in 2013. Penetration will increase to 83.3 percent in 2013. For EMEA as a whole, the number of subscription TV households will increase from 150 million in 2008 to 179.7 million in 2013, a 3.7 percent compound annual gain. By 2013, 56.9 percent of TV households will subscribe to a multichannel service, up from 49.2 percent in 2008.
194
Note: Does not include free-to-air DTT and satellite households. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
195
Note: Does not include free-to-air DTT and satellite households. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
196
IPTV households
Telephone companies have responded to the threat of inroads in their telephone market from cable by using their broadband Internet infrastructure to deliver IPTV in their own triple-play bundles. In Europe, most broadband Internet subscribers are with telephone companies. If the telcos can add TV, the package would be more attractive. IPTV offers more VOD options than most cable providers and has an advantage over satellite in that it offers recent movies on VOD. Satellite providers are offering VOD through their DVR services, enabling subscribers to access previously aired movies and TV shows, but not films that have yet to be shown on television. France has the largest IPTV market in EMEA, with 3.1 million subscribers in 2008. All of the major operators and two resellers offer triple play in France, making it the most competitive IPTV market. Fiber to the home (FTTH), however, will be a major competitive factor for Frances main triple-play providersFree, Orange, and Numericableas FTTH rollouts could cut into IPTV growth. In Italy, there is no cable television, which creates opportunities for IPTV because there is less competition. Italy had an average of 1.3 million IPTV subscribers in 2008, the second-largest market. Spain ranked third, with 760,000 subscribers, led by Telefnicas Imagenio triple-play service. We expect the UK to become a major IPTV market in the coming years as new services were recently launched in that country. BT Vision launched a subscription video-on-demand service in 2008, the first company in Europe to do so. It has a content deal with Universal Pictures, which should make its service more attractive. We look for the UK to reach 1.7 million IPTV subscribers in 2013, becoming the third-largest market. In Germany, Deutsche Telekom is planning to spend billions of dollars to enhance its IPTV service. We expect Germany to be one of the faster-growing IPTV markets, with a projected 1.6 million subscribers in 2013 from only 200,000 in 2008.
In Switzerland, Swisscom attracted around 100,000 IPTV subscribers with its IPTV offering Bluewin TV in 2008. Swisscom adopted a triple-screen strategy (mobile, PC, and TV), and it plans to invest 8 billion Swiss francs ($7 billion) to roll out fiber networks in the form of FTTH. We expect the IPTV market in Switzerland to triple during the next five years to 300,000 customers in 2013. IPTV is not yet significant in Central and Eastern Europe, although there is activity in each country. Although expansion plans in Russia currently are on hold because of the economy, we look for Russia to eventually become a major IPTV market in EMEA, with 1.2 million subscribers in 2013. We expect IPTV launches in Middle East/Africa during the next two years, but the IPTV market in that area will remain small. The overall IPTV subscriber base rose by 51 percent in 2008 to 7.4 million. We expect much smaller gains of less than 15 percent annually during the next two years as difficulties in obtaining financing slow the pace of system rollouts. The pace of new construction will accelerate in 2011 as credit becomes more available, and subscriber growth will improve to an annual average of nearly 30 percent. By 2013, there will be an estimated 20.2 million IPTV households in EMEA, a 22.1 percent compound annual increase. IPTV will generate 79 percent of the entire growth in subscription households in Western Europe during the next five years and 43 percent of growth for EMEA as a whole. IPTV will account for 18 percent of all television subscription households in Western Europe in 2013 and 11 percent of all subscription households in EMEA. Overall penetration of IPTV households will increase to 10.2 percent in Western Europe and to 6.4 percent in all of EMEA.
197
Less than 5,000. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
198
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Cable households
The cable market is facing increased competition from IPTV and from free DTT services as well as from a growing subscription satellite market that typically offers more channels than cable does. In the UK and Germany, the cable universe has declined in recent years, and in Israel it fell during the 200407 period before stabilizing in 2008, helped by the introduction of triple play. The Netherlands cable market also fell in 2008, losing subscribers to an expanding IPTV platform. Overall cable household growth averaged 4.5 percent compounded annually from 2004 to 2006, but only 1.4 percent compounded annually during the past two years. With household budgets tightening in 2009, we expect slower growth in most countries; steeper declines in the United Kingdom, Germany, and the Netherlands; and a drop in Spain. In the UK, we project a 5.5 percent decrease as a number of subscribers switch to Freeview, a free DTT service. The overall cable universe in EMEA will edge down by 0.3 percent in 2009 to 74.1 million households. We look for 2010 to be a weak year as well, with a 0.5 percent increase.
With economic conditions expected to improve during the latter part of the forecast period, we expect the underlying strengths of cableits ability to package television in a triple-play bundle and its ability to feature video-on-demandto lead to a rebound in subscribership. Cable households in all of Western Europe will decrease at a 0.1 percent compound annual rate to 51.6 million in 2013 from 51.9 million in 2008. Cable penetration of TV households will drop from 31.4 percent in 2008 to 30.2 percent in 2013. In Central and Eastern Europe, there are few free services available, and IPTV is not nearly as well established as it is in Western Europe. Consequently, cable faces much less competition, and we expect increases in the cable household base, with growth projected at 3.2 percent compounded annually to 25.3 million households in 2013. Cable penetration will increase to 25.2 percent in 2013 from 22.1 percent in 2008. Overall cable household growth in EMEA will average 0.9 percent compounded annually to 77.8 million in 2013. Cable household penetration will edge up to 28.4 percent in 2013 from 28.1 percent in 2008.
200
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Finnpanel, Ofcom, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates, YLE
201
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Ofcom, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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France has the third-largest subscription satellite market. Satellite will remain the last solution for customers to receive digital TV in remote areas before the end of free-to-air TV by the end of 2011. This should lead to continued growth in satellite subscriptions, which we project will increase at a 1.6 percent compound annual rate to 4.6 million in 2013. Spain has the fourth-largest subscription satellite market in Western Europe, at 2.1 million in 2008. That market has been flat in recent years because the expanding IPTV market is attracting all the new subscribers. We expect an additional flat year followed by modest gains as the economy improves. We project 1.4 percent compound annual growth to 2.2 million in 2013. In Western Europe as a whole, we anticipate a 2.3 percent compound annual increase to 29.9 million subscribers in 2013. Satellite penetration in Western Europe will increase to 17.5 percent in 2013 from 16.2 percent in 2008. As with cable, we expect faster increases in satellite in Central and Eastern Europe, which we project at 6.2 percent compounded annually. Satellite reaches areas not covered by cable, and its extensive channel capacity will drive demand. Penetration will increase from 12 percent in 2008 to 15.8 percent in 2013. The number of subscription satellite households in EMEA will increase from 39.1 million in 2008 to 46.5 million in 2013. Penetration will average 17 percent in 2013 from 14.8 percent in 2008.
203
Note: Does not include free-to-air satellite households. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Ofcom, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
204
Note: Does not include free-to-air satellite households. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Ofcom, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Subscription spending
We expect the recession to cut into spending on the discretionary components of the marketparticularly, premium services and digital tiers, as well as videoon-demand and pay-per-view. There will be less of an impact on basic services, although providers will likely restrain rate increases. We expect subscription spending, which has grown at double-digit and high-single-digit rates during the past five years, to slow markedly, with gains dropping to less than 3 percent annually during the next two years. Thereafter, as economic conditions improve, there will be less restraint on discretionary services, and we look for a jump in spending per household. In addition to a stronger economy, subscribers will be attracted to more channels in total and more HD channels. Spending per subscription household on TV subscriptions (not including video-on-demand, payper-view, or broadband or telephone service) rose at rates in excess of 4 percent annually during 200608. We expect that growth to drop to less than 1 percent annually during the next two years. We then look for a rebound, with increases of around 4 percent annually during 2012 and 2013.
Subscription spending in EMEA will grow at rates in excess of 9 percent annually during 2012 and 2013 and will average 6.2 percent compounded annually for the forecast period as a whole. Subscription spending will rise from $47.7 billion in 2008 to $64.4 billion in 2013. Subscription spending in Western Europe will grow at a 6.1 percent compound annual rate to $55.3 billion in 2013. We expect subscription spending in Central and Eastern Europe to increase from $4.2 billion to $6 billion, a 7.3 percent compound annual advance. Middle East/Africa will be the slowest-growing area in EMEA, at 5.8 percent compounded annually, with spending reaching $3.1 billion in 2013.
206
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Ofcom, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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With the economy rapidly weakening, we look for a significant turnaround in per-household spending during the next two years and project a cumulative 27 percent decline. Annual spending per VOD household will drop by more than $20. The anticipated rebound in the economy will then lead to a more-than-proportional increase in discretionary items such as VOD. By 2013, we look for VOD spending per household to surpass its level in 2008 and climb to more than $82.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
In Norway, RiksTV, which provides digital signals over the air, will introduce VOD in 2009 as a competitor to cable companies. Growth in the underlying VOD household base will provide a strong boost to VOD spending during the next five years. VOD is also affected by per-household usage, which in turn is affected by the economy as well as by available content. We believe VOD is a highly discretionary component of the market: there is not a long history of usage; VOD programming is not yet part of the routine for the average viewer; and there is not commitment to VOD as there is for a premium service. From 2004 to 2008, there was a sharp increase in buy rates per household, reflecting a generally expanding economy and the rollout of new services. France, which has the largest VOD market in Western Europe, has seven providers offering VOD.
Overall VOD spending, which has grown explosively in recent years from a small base, will decline by 7.1 percent in 2009 and grow by only 3.5 percent in 2010. The market will then surge at rates in excess of 30 percent annually during 201113. We look for France to remain the largest VOD market in Western Europe, rising to an estimated $746 million in 2013. We expect each country except the UK to average double-digit compound annual increases during the next five years. The UK, by contrast, will grow by only 5.4 percent on a compound annual basis. The UK market is largely satellite based, and the cable component is declining, which will largely offset gains in IPTV and keep the VOD potential relatively limited. Overall VOD spending will increase from $1.2 billion in 2008 to a projected $3.4 billion in 2013, a 22.1 percent compound annual increase.
208
At average 2008 exchange rates. Negligible. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Cable operators and IPTV providers are emphasizing VOD at the expense of pay-per-view. Satellite providers, on the other hand, continue to promote their pay-perview services. In Italy, for example, where satellite is the dominant platform, pay-per-view soared in 2008. The satellite universe also is large in Spain, France, and the UK. In France, the pay-per-view market declined during the past two years as subscribers shifted to VOD, while Spain and the UK have seen their pay-perview markets expand. Pay-per-view, like VOD, is a discretionary purchase that is subject to cutbacks when economic conditions
tighten. We expect sharp declines in Spain and France and project an overall 11.9 percent decrease, with a further 5 percent decline in 2010. We do not expect as dramatic a rebound in pay-perview as we do in video-on-demand, because pay-perview will not be promoted as vigorously. We do look for a return to mid-single-digit growth by 2012. We project the pay-per-view market in Western Europe to drop to $1 billion in 2013 from $1.04 billion in 2008, a 0.7 percent compound annual decline.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Mobile TV
Mobile television in a number of countries is at a crossroads. In some countries, services have failed; in others, new rollouts are taking place; and the business model is shifting from subscriber based to advertiser supported. In Germany, Vodafone, T-Mobile, and O2 teamed up to apply for a DVB-H (Digital Video Broadcasting Handheld) license but were turned down in favor of Mobile 3.0. By late 2008, it appeared that Mobile 3.0 would be returning its license because it failed to meet its license requirements. Meanwhile, a DVB-T (Digital Video BroadcastingTerrestrial) service was launched in Germany on a free basis. In the UK, BT Movio closed its mobile TV service in early 2008 as mobile TV has yet to gain traction in that country. Italy has the largest mobile TV market in Europe, at $107 million in 2008, a figure that would have been much higher had 3 Italia, one of the leading providers, not launched a free service that is cutting into the subscription market. In Norway, Norges Mobil-TV, a newly formed company owned by large media stakeholders, will start test transmissions in March 2009, using the DMB (Digital Multimedia Broadcasting) standard. The test transmissions will be available to 1.4 million people. At the same time, a number of subscription services are entering the market. In Austria, mobile TV was launched on a free basis in conjunction with the UEFA Championships in mid-2008. In 2009, it will switch to a subscription service at 6 ($8.65) per month. In France, 13 mobile TV licenses were awarded in 2008 in addition to 3 licenses that had been previously granted. In late 2008, Orange introduced five channels that will be accessible to mobile phones for 6 ($8.65) per month.
KPN in the Netherlands and Swisscom in Switzerland launched mobile services in 2008 on a subscription basis. Swisscom in 2008 launched Bluewin TV Mobile, a mobile TV subscription service available per day or on a monthly basis. The offering consists of 30 channels of which 20 can be received in HD quality. Subscribers can pay a premium for special news and sports packages. There also is activity in Central and Eastern Europe and Middle East/Africa. Mobile TV licenses are expected to be awarded in Poland and South Africa in 2009, and a rollout is expected in Russia in 2009 as well. During the next two years, take-up rates for mobile television are likely to be very low because of the economic environment. Providers will likewise not be aggressive in rolling out services because of difficulties in obtaining financing and an expected low initial return on investment. Over the longer run, rollout and take-up rates will improve as the economy expands. It remains to be seen how the business model will evolve and whether mobile TV gets offered on a subscription basis or an advertiser-supported basis or a combination of the two. We expect that the bulk of the growth will be on an advertiser-supported basis but that a subscription component will expand as well. Premium content and sports will likely be offered on a subscription basis, while conventional programming may migrate to a free basis. We project that the mobile TV subscription market will increase from $178 million in 2008 to $1.4 billion in 2013.
211
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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contribution to public television. The government subsequently reversed course and increased its contribution during the past two years, with larger gains expected going forward. We project a 4.2 percent compound annual expansion through 2013 to $783 million. Portugal introduced public TV license fees in 2004 and is ramping up the contribution. We expect fees to rise at a 13.6 percent compound annual rate, the largest percent increase in EMEA. Poland, by contrast, is reducing its public TV fees. Fees have fallen since 2004 and are projected to continue to decline through 2012 and to stabilize in 2013. We project license fees in Western Europe to increase at a 1.9 percent compound annual rate to $25.7 billion in 2013. In Central and Eastern Europe, the decrease in Poland will offset modest growth in the Czech Republic, leading to an overall compound annual decrease of 1 percent to $500 million from $527 million in 2008. Russia, Turkey, and Hungary have no public license fees. In Middle East/Africa, South Africa and Israel have public TV license fees; Saudi Arabia/Pan Arab does not. TV household growth and modest license fee increase will generate 1.9 percent growth compounded annually to $233 million in 2013 from $212 million in 2008. For EMEA as a whole, public TV license fees will increase to $26.5 billion in 2013, up 1.9 percent on a compound annual basis.
213
At average 2008 exchange rates. Fees were discontinued after 1999. Figures reflect government contributions from general tax revenues. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Ofcom, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Asia Pacific
digits during the next two years and then improve to double-digit annual gains during 201113. Subscription spending will increase at an 11.7 percent compound annual rate to $36.5 billion in 2013 from $21 billion in 2008. Video-on-demand will grow from $530 million in 2008 to $1 billion in 2013, a 14.1 percent increase compounded annually. A small pay-per-view market will increase at a 1.3 percent compound annual rate to $129 million in 2013. Public TV license fees will rise at a 1.4 percent annual rate to $6 billion. Mobile television subscription spending will total $1.7 billion by 2013.
Overview
We project overall spending to rise to $45.4 billion in 2013 from $27.5 billion in 2008, a 10.5 percent compound annual increase. Growth will drop to single
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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The economic decline will lead to somewhat slower growth in subscription households during the next two years and slower growth in spending per household. When incomes are being squeezed, households cut back on discretionary purchases. We expect spending per household on premium services, video-ondemand, and pay-per-view to experience declines. We also anticipate that providers will impose smaller rate increases on basic services. Most countries are expected to grow more slowly during the next two years compared with 2008. Japan is the largest market in Asia Pacific, at $11.1 billion, 40 percent of the total. The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) and India are next, at $4.4 billion and
$3.4 billion, respectively. South Korea is fourth, at $2.3 billion, followed by Australia and Taiwan, the only other countries in excess of $1 billion. Large increases in the satellite market will propel the PRC and India during the next five years, while an expanding mobile TV market will boost spending in South Korea. Each of these countries will average double-digit compound annual growth. We look for Australia to increase by 9.5 percent compounded annually, boosted by emerging video-ondemand and mobile TV markets. We anticipate midsingle-digit gains in the other major countries.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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subscription TV households in the PRC to rise to 220 million by 2013 from 162.6 million in 2008, while India will total 115.2 million subscriptions households from 80.01 million in 2008. In 2013, the PRC and India will constitute 83 percent of subscription TV households in Asia Pacific. The problem of piracy continues to impact the growth of subscription TV in a number of markets in the region. Piracy losses were estimated by the Cable and Satellite Broadcasting Association of Asia in October 2008 to be $1.8 billion annually, a total that excludes the PRC. The nature of piracy varies by market. Illegal distributors in Thailand (1.3 million households), Indonesia (1.4 million households), and Pakistan (7.2 million households) serve more households than the legal distributors do. In India, the estimated cost of piracy increased by 15 percent to $1.1 billion in 2008 due to both an increase in illegal connections and higher average revenue per unit. In markets where the migration to digital cable and the rollout of IPTV are ongoing, piracy levels are decreasing.
Note: Does not include free-to-air DTT and satellite households. Sources: Cable and Satellite Broadcasting Association of Asia, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
217
Note: Does not include free-to-air DTT and satellite households. Sources: Cable and Satellite Broadcasting Association of Asia, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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IPTV
Augmenting growth in TV households will be a rapidly expanding IPTV market. IPTV is now available in each country except Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Growth in the Internet broadband market has expanded the platform for IPTV. Telephone companies are introducing IPTV to create attractive service bundles that combine landline telephone service with broadband Internet access and television. Bundled services have proved to be popular, and carriers are hoping they will stem the erosion in landline subscriptions. Infrastructure upgrades in many countries focus on Internet protocolbased next-generation networks that will allow for high-speed broadband, television, and other high-volume applications. In the PRC, the telecommunications market was restructured in 2008. Under the new structure, there are now three national operators that offer both wireless and fixed-line services, replacing the previous structure of six state-owned operators. The restructuring has made the market more efficient and has made it easier for carriers to offer IPTV packages, thereby opening the way to easier availabilitywhich will be the key driver of market growth. China Netcom, for example, added a number of cities to its IPTV network in 2008. The IPTV subscriber base more than doubled in 2008 to 2.6 million, and we expect it will expand to 10 million households by 2013. In early 2009, Microsoft and Guangzhou Digital Media Group teamed up to launch Zhujiang Digital on the Microsoft Mediaroom IPTV platform. The service will enable subscribers to access any previously aired program on an on-demand basis. In South Korea, the Korean Communications Commission awarded three IPTV licenses in 2008 to Hanaro Telecom (now part of SK Broadband), KT, and LG Dacom. KT announced it plans to invest more than $1 billion in its IPTV service during the next four years and is working on creating programming for its IPTV platform. In Hong Kong, IPTV is the dominant platform, accounting for more than half of all subscription households and more than 40 percent of all television households. Now TV, the IPTV service from PCCW, announced it is launching a new Cantonese-language channel. Because of its already high penetration rate, IPTV growth will be more limited in Hong Kong than in the rest of the region. We project for Hong Kong a 7.6
percent compound annual increase during the next five years, the only territory where we expect single-digit compound annual growth. IPTV penetration in Hong Kong will increase to 55.8 percent by 2013, by far the highest in Asia Pacific. Japan, which has the second-largest IPTV market, at 1.35 million subscribers in 2008, is enhancing its offerings. GyaO NEXT began offering FOX on Demand, and NHK began offering NHK On Demand on their respective IPTV services in late 2008. We expect IPTV in Japan to rise to 4 million households by 2013. In Singapore, MioTV from SingTel has become a successful IPTV service, accounting for nearly 10 percent of all subscription households. It now allows programming to be forwarded to SingTels wireless subscribers. In a deal with ABC, FOX, and Warner Bros., MioTV also will be carrying a number of popular US shows within a day after their US broadcasts. These features should make the service more appealing. In India in 2008, the government declared the licensing rules for the rollout of IPTV services in India. Under these guidelines, Telecom service providers can provide triple-play services, and Internet service providers that meet a net-worth requirement will be permitted to provide IPTV service under their existing licenses without needing further registration. Similarly, registered cable TV operators, too, can provide IPTV services without any further permission. These norms, along with other clarifications recently brought out, will support the long-awaited rollout of IPTV services in India. Although double-digit gains are expected in each country except Hong Kong throughout the forecast period, increases will be slower during the next two years as the take-up rate moderates and as rollouts become less aggressive. IPTV penetration, which increased by four-tenths of a point in 2008, will expand by only three-tenths of a point cumulatively during the next two years. We then expect growth rates to increase as economic conditions improve, and we project IPTV penetration to rise by 1.4 percentage points from 2010 to 2013. The IPTV market as a whole will increase to a projected 19.8 million households by 2013, a 27.1 percent compound annual increase. IPTV penetration will increase from 0.9 percent in 2008 to 2.6 percent in 2013.
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220
Cable
Cable is the largest component of the subscription household market in Asia Pacific, with a total of 264.2 million subscribers in 2008, accounting for 89 percent of all subscription households. The PRC and India have the largest markets, at 160 million and 70 million, respectively. In the PRC, cable household growth slowed to 5.3 percent in 2008 following three years of double-digit annual gains. We expect that the legalization of satellite in 2009 will further limit the cable market. We project cable household growth to average 2.9 percent compounded annually during the next five years to 185 million. In India, the conditional access system (CAS) was introduced in 2007 in select areas of Mumbai, Delhi, and Kolkata. CAS allows subscribers to pay only for the channels they choose to receive and puts a cap on prices for basic packages at Rs77 ($1.76) and at Rs5
($0.11) per pay channel. Basic packages must include at least 30 free-to-air channels, and premium channels must be offered on an la carte basis. Though CAS has not yet been extended to the rest of the Indian cities as recommended by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, there is significant activity on deployment of voluntary digital cable systems. In 2008, News Corp. owned entity Star India formed a 50-50 joint venture with DEN Digital Entertainment Networks to distribute television channels on all fixed networks, including cable, DTH (direct to home), IPTV, HITS (Headend in the Sky), and MMDS (multichannel multipoint distribution service). We expect the cable universe in India to increase to 80 million in 2013. South Korea has the third-largest cable market, at 14.4 million subscribers, up 3 percent from 2007. With a surging IPTV market anticipated during the next five years, we expect cable to decline, falling to 14.2 million households in 2013.
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In Japan, the fourth-largest cable market, at 7.2 million, competition from satellite and an expanding IPTV market will cut into cable growth. As in other countries, increases will be modest in the near term and stronger during 201213, when the economy is expected to be healthier. The cable universe is expected to total 7.7 million in 2013, a 1.4 percent compound annual increase. Indonesia only has two cable television operators: First Media (formerly Kabelvision) and TELKOMVision. With high expansion of new satellite TV operators, which
are more flexible for Indonesias geographic condition, cable TV is expected to have difficulty in competing with satellite TV. For Asia Pacific as a whole, cable households will increase by 1.9 percent in 2009 and by 2.3 percent in 2010, with increases projected at more than 3 percent annually during 2012 and 2013. Overall growth will average 2.7 percent compounded annually to 302.2 million in 2013. Cable penetration will rise from 38 percent to 39.3 percent.
Sources: Cable and Satellite Broadcasting Association of Asia, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (Japan), PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Sources: Cable and Satellite Broadcasting Association of Asia, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Satellite
The satellite market rose by 45.5 percent in 2008 to 25.6 million households, boosted by a large increase in India. We expect satellite service to be legalized in the PRC in 2009 and to grow to 25 million households by 2013. We look for the satellite market in India to more than triple to 35 million households from 10 million in 2008. Satellite can reach rural areas much less expensively than cable or IPTV, and we expect that take-up rates in areas not served by other technologies will drive growth in the PRC and India during the next five years.
In India in 2008, two additional DTH services were launched by Indias largest two telecoms operators: Big TV by Reliance and Digital TV by Bharti Airtel. These launches took the total number of private DTH players in India to five. State broadcaster Doordarshan also operates a free-to-air DTH service. Since regulation in Indiaunlike in the rest of the worldprohibits DTH players from broadcasting exclusive content, DTH players face competition from around 20,000 cable operators in India. Hence, 2008 witnessed price wars, subsidizing of set-top boxes, and major marketing campaigns from both new and existing DTH players.
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In other countries, the large capacity of satellite compared with cable will enable providers to offer more channels and an attractive HD service. In Japan, for example, SKY PerfecTV added 15 HD channels in late 2008. In South Korea, on the other hand, we expect that the expanding appeal of IPTV and the availability of ondemand services on cable systems will cannibalize
the satellite market, and we project a 4.1 percent compound annual decline during the next five years. We project the overall satellite household universe to increase to 81.7 million households by 2013 from 25.6 million in 2008, a 26.1 percent compound annual increase. Penetration will rise to 10.6 percent from 3.7 percent in 2008.
Note: Does not include free-to-air satellite households. Sources: Cable and Satellite Broadcasting Association of Asia, Japan Satellite Broadcasting Association, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Note: Does not include free-to-air satellite households. Sources: Cable and Satellite Broadcasting Association of Asia, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Subscription spending
During the next two years, we expect that consumers will be resistant to incurring additional expenses for the more discretionary portions of TV subscription such as premium content and digital tiers. We therefore look for spending growth per household to moderate, which will reduce overall spending growth. We expect a drop to a 9.5 percent rise in 2009 from the 13.7 percent increase in 2008, as well as a somewhat
improved, 10.8 percent increase in 2010. We then look for spending to increase at rates in excess of 12 percent annually during the subsequent three years as the discretionary components of the market expand as the economy improves. Overall subscription spending will expand at an 11.7 percent compound annual rate to $36.5 billion in 2013 from $21 billion in 2008.
225
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Video-on-demand
Growth in IPTV and a small but expanding digital cable market will drive spending on VOD over the long run. Telephone companies are promoting VOD to attract subscribers to IPTV, and cable operators are upgrading their infrastructures to offer VOD. Video-on-demand is being actively promoted in several countries. In South Korea, for example, The Dark Knight was launched on VOD two weeks before its DVD release. In Australia, telephone companies are expanding their IPTV reach and their VOD offers. There were nearly 10 million potential VOD households in Asia Pacific in 2008 compared with around 2 million in 2004. We expect relatively little growth in 2009, reflecting the slowing economy, and look for a modest increase in 2010 as well. Faster gains are anticipated
during 201113 as economic conditions improve and as the IPTV market grows faster. By 2013, there will be 19 million VOD households.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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In addition to slower VOD household growth, we expect VOD spending per household to decrease during the next two years as consumers forgo discretionary expenses. We then look for a rebound in per-household spending during 201113.
The result will be a projected 7.4 percent decline in overall VOD spending in 2009, which would be an abrupt interruption from annual gains that exceeded 30 percent during the past four years. We expect a relatively tepid, 5.5 percent advance in 2010 and then a return to double-digit growth, with increases of more than 20 percent annually during 201113. South Korea and Japan are the region leaders, at $225 million and $199 million, respectively, in 2008, accounting for 80 percent of the total. Except for Hong Kong, whose subscription growth will be satellite based, we look for double-digit compound annual increases in each country for which we have data. Overall VOD spending will increase from $530 million in 2008 to $1 billion in 2013, growing at a 14.1 percent compound annual rate.
50
40
30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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There is a relatively small pay-per-view market in Asia Pacific that is being promoted by satellite providers and analog cable. Most of the pay-per-view activity is in Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and Hong Kong, which together accounted for 89 percent of total spending in 2008. While satellite expansion will continue to drive the market, the increased share of subscribers going to
IPTV and digital cablewhere VOD is the favored alternativewill cut into pay-per-view growth. As in the VOD market, we expect decreased spending per household in the near term followed by a rebound when the economy again expands at healthy rates. Overall pay-per-view spending will increase from $121 million in 2008 to $129 million in 2013, 1.3 percent compounded annually.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Mobile TV
Mobile television has been available in South Korea and Japan for three years and was introduced in Australia, Indonesia, New Zealand, Taiwan, and Vietnam in 2008. Commercial launches are expected in the PRC and Thailand in 2009 and in Hong Kong and the Philippines in 2010. In Hong Kong, three mobile TV licenses are expected to be auctioned in 2009. Licensees will be required to launch services in 2010. SpeedCast in conjunction with Alcatel Lucent announced the launching of a satellite-based hosted service using DVB-H technology. Instead of wireless carriers creating their own infrastructure, they can access the hosted service that will be delivered by satellite to local towers for retransmission, saving infrastructure and operating costs for local carriers. The service will provide more than 20 channels and should make it easier for carriers to provide mobile TV. These developments will propel the subscription mobile TV market. At the same time, there have been setbacks. In Japan, Toshiba announced it is closing Mobile Broadcasting Corporation, its satellite mobile TV service. One Segment, a free digital terrestrial mobile TV service, has become the dominant platform, limiting the scope of the subscription market. While mobile TV is becoming ubiquitous in Japan, only a small portion of the market is on a paid basis. In South Korea, the free T-DMB mobile TV service, with more than 10 million users, dwarfs the paid service from TU Media, which has around 1.4 million subscribers. Nevertheless, with 22 channels compared with 6 for the free service, the paid service is slowly gaining ground. In Australia, significant third-generation (3G) upgrades by Telstra and Optus will expand the reach of mobile TV. Optus plans to extend its 3G network to virtually the entire country by the end of 2009.
The success of free services in Japan and South Korea will likely lead to the introduction of free services in other countries, which will cut into the potential for subscription services. It also appears that there is a niche for subscription services that provide more content than free services do. We expect that mobile television will advance on a parallel track, with both free and paid services expanding. The paid portion of the market will likely be the smaller segment, but we expect it will total $1.7 billion in 2013 from only $230 million in 2008. Despite South Korea and Japans having successful free services, we expect those two countries to have the largest subscription mobile TV services, with spending totaling an estimated $699 million in South Korea in 2013 and $318 million in Japan. We also expect that the PRC, Indonesia, and Australia will have mobile TV subscription markets in excess of $100 million by 2013. In the Philippines, the commercial launch of mobile TV has been delayed as the National Telecommunications Commission has yet to release guidelines for the operation of mobile TV services in the market. This means providers of mobile TV, such as Smart Communications, are currently limited to providing the service for free for their subscribers. To access the service, their subscribers need only have the appropriate type of technology-ready mobile phone.
229
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
80
76.31 77.42
70
60
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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Modest rate increases averaging 0.3 percent compounded annually will also contribute to growth.
We project public TV license fees to increase from $5.6 billion in 2008 to $6 billion in 2013, a 1.4 percent compound annual advance.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Latin America
Overview
We project the market to expand from $9.5 billion in 2008 to $13 billion in 2013, a 6.5 percent compound annual increase. Subscription spending will increase to $12.7 billion in 2013, a 6.2 percent compound annual gain. VOD will double to $40 million in 2013, a 14.9 percent increase compounded annually. Mobile television will accelerate to $175 million by 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Brazil and Mexico were the leading countries in Latin America in 2008, at $3.2 billion and $2.4 billion, respectively, followed by Argentina at $1.7 billion.
Chile will be the fastest-growing country during the next five years, with a projected 8 percent compound annual increase, fueled by an expanding IPTV market. The remaining countries will expand at mid-single-digit rates ranging from 5.1 percent in Venezuela to 6.9 percent in Brazil.
232
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Subscription TV penetration will rise to 26.2 percent in 2013 from 22.6 percent in 2008. Argentina has the largest number of subscribers in 2008, at 6.75 million, and will remain the leader in 2013, at 8.5 million. Mexico will have 7.8 million subscribers in 2013, and Brazil, 7.65 million. Subscription household penetration in Argentina will reach 82.1 percent by 2013. In Chile, the majority of television households will have a TV subscription in 2013, with penetration projected at 52 percent. No other country will reach a penetration rate of 50 percent during the next five years.
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Note: Does not include free-to-air DTT and satellite households. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Note: Does not include free-to-air DTT and satellite households. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Cable
Triple-play offerings are driving the cable market. In Argentina, for example, Multicanal and Cablevision are investing more than $300 million in a fiber infrastructure to offer triple-play packages. In Colombia, Telmex acquired five cable companies and is using that platform to create an infrastructure to launch a triple-play service. In Mexico, cable operators were permitted to provide triple-play services beginning in 2007, which is helping expand cable. During the past two years, cable household growth in Latin America accelerated to increases in excess of 9 percent annually.
We expect cable household growth to slow to less than 3 percent annually during the next two years. We expect a stronger, 4.6 percent increase in 2011 as the economy begins to rebound, and increases of 6 percent or more during the subsequent two years, when the economy resumes a growth profile. The number of cable households in Latin America will increase to 21.8 million in 2013 from 17.7 million in 2008, a 4.3 percent compound annual increase. Cable penetration of TV households will rise from 16.8 percent in 2008 to 19 percent in 2013.
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IPTV
While cable companies have been entering the telephone market, there remain impediments to telephone companies offering television. In Argentina, Telecom Argentina is testing an IPTV service and is petitioning the government to let it offer IPTV on a commercial basis. We expect IPTV to become available in 2010. In Brazil, Brazil Telecom launched a VOD service using IPTV, but IPTV is still not permitted as a platform for television programs. Unless the law changes, we do not expect IPTV to be introduced in Brazil.
In Mexico, Telmex has been looking to modify its license to allow it to offer IPTV, but so far is not permitted to do so. Given the recent ruling allowing cable companies to provide telephone service, we expect that Telmex will ultimately be permitted to provide IPTV, and we expect a launch in 2010. In Venezuela, state-owned telephone company Cantv is upgrading its infrastructure, and we expect an IPTV launch there in 2011. Currently, Chile is the only country with an active IPTV service. We expect Chile will remain the largest IPTV market in Latin America, with 130,000 subscribers in 2013. The overall market will total 290,000 subscribers.
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Satellite
There is an active satellite market in Latin America that reaches areas not accessible by cable. The satellite household base has grown much faster than the cable household base, with double-digit annual gains during each of the past five years. We expect an even sharper slowdown in satellite household growth than in cable household growth during the next two years relative to 2008 because the cost of a satellite dish will be a significant impediment when disposable income is squeezed.
We expect growth to drop to less than 2.5 percent annually in 2009 and 2010. We also look for a larger rebound in satellite than in cable during the latter part of the forecast period as rising incomes make satellite dishes affordable to more people. We project increases of 9.5 percent or more in 2012 and 2013. We project the overall satellite market to increase from 6.1 million in 2008 to 8 million in 2013, growing at a 5.6 percent compound annual rate. Satellite penetration will rise to 6.9 percent in 2013 from 5.8 percent in 2008.
Note: Does not include free-to-air satellite households. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Note: Does not include free-to-air satellite households. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Subscription spending
Just as subscription household growth will slow during the next two years, we also expect slower growth in subscription spending per household, reflecting the tightening economy and a slower take-up rate for premium services. Spending per household should grow faster during the latter part of the forecast period, when economic conditions improve.
In 2008, TV subscription spending in Latin America rose by 12.8 percent. We expect increases averaging 2.9 percent during the next two years followed by accelerating growth to 2013, when we project a 10 percent advance. For the forecast period as a whole, TV subscription spending will increase at a 6.2 percent compound annual rate from $9.4 billion in 2008 to $12.7 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Video-on-demand
Cable upgrades that allow for triple-play packages also create a platform for video-on-demand. The emergence of IPTV will also enhance the VOD base because one of the features of IPTV is its ability to provide VOD. The effective household base for VOD is still small in Latin America, at only 1.8 million in 2008, a figure we project will more than double to 3.7 million by 2013. As with the subscription market, we expect spending per VOD household to decline in 2009, which will dampen overall spending growth. We expect a $2-million increase in VOD spending in 2009, down from the $6-million advance in 2008. A rise in per-household spending will propel the VOD market during subsequent years. We project total VOD spending to increase to $40 million in 2013 from $20 million in 2008, a 14.9 percent compound annual rate.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Mobile TV
Mobile TV is currently available only in Brazil. Brazil adopted the Japanese ISDB-T (Integrated Services Digital BroadcastingTerrestrial) standard for its digital terrestrial television service and is using that platform to deliver mobile television. In Chile, the three mobile operators are seeking ultrahigh frequencies for mobile TV, and we expect a launch in 2009. In Mexico, Iusacell upgraded its wireless network in preparation for mobile TV, which we expect in 2009.
In Argentina, each of the wireless carriers upgraded its networks to 3G, and we look for mobile TV to be launched in 2010. In the near term, we expect little demand for mobile TV as well as slow rollouts as providers face difficulty in obtaining financing. We expect the mobile TV market to remain tiny during the next three years, at a projected $13 million in 2011. We then look for spending to ramp up as rollouts accelerate and incomes rise. By 2013 we expect the mobile TV market to total $175 million.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Television advertising
242 Summary 243 North America 253 Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA) 262 Asia Pacific 269 Latin America
Summary
Television advertising
The television advertising market consists of advertiser spending on both terrestrial television and multichannel television. It is distinct from mobile TV advertising and advertising on TV Web sites, both of which are covered in the Internet Advertising: Wired and Mobile chapter. Net television advertising figuresconsisting of spending minus agency commissions and discountsare tracked in EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa), Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Canada. Advertising in the US and Russia is reported with agency commissions included, as is customary. Multichannel advertising refers to advertising on networks that are accessed by viewers via cable (analog or digital), satellite, digital terrestrial television (DTT), or other means but that are not otherwise available without these services. Terrestrial advertising consists of advertising that is generated by free-to-air broadcast networks and that can be received through an ordinary television receiver, even if viewers can also receive such networks through a cable, satellite, or DTT service.
Principal drivers
Near-term economic declines will be the dominant factor affecting the market in each region, with an improvement in the economic environment contributing to the recovery during 201213. Multichannel advertising will be the fastest-growing sector in each region, buoyed by large increases in digital households and viewing-share gains for cable, satellite channels, and DTT channels. Highdefinition television (HDTV) will also boost advertising on free-to-air channels once the underlying economic environment improves.
Data for the global television advertising market by region and for the global television advertising market by component can be found within the Executive Summary on page 39.
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North America
Overview
Television advertising will fall by a projected 13.6 percent in 2009 and will total an estimated $69.3 billion in 2013, representing a 0.6 percent compound annual decrease from $71.4 billion in 2008. Multichannel advertising will rise by an estimated 2.1 percent compounded annually from $28.2 billion in 2008 to $31.3 billion in 2013. Terrestrial advertising will fall by 15.9 percent in 2009 and in 2013 will be 2.6 percent lower than in 2008 on a compound annual basis, falling to $37.9 billion from $43.1 billion.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
The United States will experience the steeper near-term decline, falling by 13.7 percent in 2009 compared with a projected 11.2 percent decrease in Canada. In addition to the impact of the economy, television in the United States will lose the political and Olympic advertising that contributed to the market in 2008. By contrast, Canada had relatively less political and Olympic advertising than the US did in 2008 and therefore had less to lose. During the 201013 period, we expect both the United States and Canada to rebound with a projected 3.4 percent advance compounded annually in Canada and 2.9 percent in the United States.
For the forecast period as a whole, Canada will increase at a 0.3 percent compound annual rate to $3.2 billion in 2013 from $3.1 billion in 2008. Television advertising in the United States will decrease from $68.3 billion in 2008 to $66.1 billion in 2013, a 0.6 percent decrease compounded annually.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Economic downturn
The difficult economic environment began to cut into the broadcast network advertising market in both the United States and Canada in 2008. US broadcast network advertising posted a modest, 1.0 percent advance, and Canadian broadcast advertising fell by 1.2 percent. The US market was bolstered by more than $1 billion in advertising for the Beijing Olympics. The Beijing Olympics also boosted television advertising in Canada. However, the Olympic advertising of 2008 will leave the North American market in 2009, exacerbating the decline, but will return in 2010. In addition to the slumping economy, broadcast networks were hurt by the writers strike in early 2008 that interrupted the flow of programs, leading to increased airings of reruns and reality shows. Ratings were down significantly. The impact was not limited to the United States. Canadian broadcasters were faced with a shortage of original US shows.
Cable networks and specialty channels were less affected by the strike, because they rely more on live programming, reruns, and reality shows as a matter of course. The strike therefore accelerated the shift in viewing from broadcast networks to cable networks. Cable news channels also benefited from the enormous interest in the presidential campaign that lasted from the fall of 2007 through November 2008. Cable news channels experienced a spike in ratings and doubledigit advertising growth. That viewership gain as well as the ad spending increase came at the expense of the broadcast networks. The growth in cable news channel viewing also led to an increase in political advertising going to cable networks as compared with the past. Furthermore, cable networks are getting more involved in original production. Consequently, cable network advertising held up relatively well in 2008. US cable network advertising rose by 4 percent in 2008 compared with 1 percent growth in broadcast network advertising. In Canada, specialty channels recorded a 4.4 percent increase, while broadcast networks experienced a 1.2 percent decline.
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While the economic downturn will affect all segments of the market, we expect that the broadcast networks and local advertising will be hardest-hit compared with cable networks and specialty channels. We expect a 15.9 percent decrease in the United States in 2009 and a 13.2 percent decline in Canada.
1.0
United States
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
US market
The scheduled shutdown of analog broadcasting in the United States could also have an adverse impact on television station viewing and advertising. Millions of households still receive television through over-theair signals. Moreover, even in households where the primary television set is connected to a multichannel distribution system, secondary sets often are not.
The scheduled analog broadcasting shutdown date of February 17, 2009, became delayed until June 12, 2009, because many households were not prepared for the switchover. The switchover will likely lead to an uptick in multichannel subscriptions, resulting in television stations and broadcast networks facing more competition from cable networks. Consequently, the competitive position of broadcast television will deteriorate in 2009, further eroding their advertising.
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In the United States, local advertising on television stations fell 9 percent in 2008, the steepest decrease of all television advertising segments. We expect an additional 16.1 percent decrease in 2009. The national spot market fell by 3 percent in 2008, cushioned by the surge in political advertising, most of which will leave the market in 2009. We expect a 19.7 percent decline in national spot in 2009. We expect that drop in 2009 to be steeper than in 2007 or 2005 because of the declining economy. Overall US television station advertising fell by 6.5 percent in 2008, and a further 17.6 percent decrease is expected in 2009. Multichannel systems in the United States garnered a larger share of political advertising than in the past, helping them post a 2.5 percent advance in 2008. The absence of that advertising in 2009 combined with cutbacks by traditional advertisers will lead to a 14.5 percent decline in 2009. That decrease will be less than that projected for television stations, because of multichannels increased viewing share as the digital switchover boosts subscribership. Total TV station and multichannel systems advertising in the United States fell 4.8 percent in 2008, and we project a further 17 percent decline in 2009.
providers for the Local Programming Improvement Fund from 5 percent to 6 percent. Increased funding should help certain local stations in Canada improve their news programming and other operations, which should have a positive effect on viewing and advertising over the longer run. The analog switch-off scheduled in Canada in 2011 will likely have a modest adverse impact on the remaining over-the-air market as the take-up rate of paid distribution increases and viewing of specialty channels rises. The Canadian government is changing the policy that prohibits cable and satellite providers from selling advertising on US cable programs carried in Canada. US cable programs typically allocate two minutes per hour for local advertising (called local avails). Currently, cable operators are required to use 30 seconds of that time to promote Canadian programming. The remainder can be used to promote only a cable or satellite systems own products. In the future, cable operators will be permitted to sell that time to Canadian advertisers, which should provide an incremental revenue stream. We expect increases averaging 4.7 percent annually during 2012 and 2013, reflecting the impact of this added revenue. The local market in Canada will also be helped by new over-the-air stations targeting niche audiences. In 2008, for example, Rogers Communications launched OMNI Calgary and OMNI Edmonton, which serve the expanding immigrant population in each of those cities. These positive developments will help the local market in Canada to outperform the United States. We project 1 percent compound annual decline in local television advertising in Canada during 200913 compared with a projected 2.6 percent decline compounded annually in the US. Local television advertising as a whole in North America fell by 4.8 percent in 2008, and we project a 17 percent decrease in 2009. By 2013, local television advertising will total $25.6 billion compared with $29.2 billion in 2008, also a 2.6 percent compound annual decrease.
Canadian market
The local television market in Canada is relatively small, constituting only 12.7 percent of total television advertising in 2008 compared with 42.2 percent in the United States. Local television advertising in Canada fell 1.5 percent in 2008, a smaller decrease compared with that in the United States. We expect a somewhat smaller, 14.2 percent decline in 2009 because Canada is not affected by the large swings in political advertising seen in the United States. In 2008, the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC) raised the fee paid by broadcasters, cable operators, and satellite
246
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Effective DVR penetration in the United States could be even higher depending on how cable operators react to an August 2008 ruling by the US Court of Appeals in New York that allows Cablevision and, by extension, other cable operators to store recorded programs in a central location rather than providing each household with DVR capability. In principle, subscribers without a DVR set-top box could record programs simply by using their remote control devices. Use of DVR functions on an ad hoc basis could expand the effective DVR universe. In Canada, this area is not regulated, so DTT operators will seek to match the cable operators by introducing hybrid models with the download signal from the satellite link, and an Internet connection to the receiver box for uploads. This echoes the approach taken by Sky TV in Europe. We expect that the impact of DVRs on television advertising will be somewhat larger than the trend in DVR household growth.
DVR households
North America United States DVR households (millions) DVR household penetration (%) Canada DVR households (millions) DVR household penetration (%) North America total DVR households (millions) DVR household penetration (%) 5.7 4.7 9.5 7.8 11.7 9.5 23.2 18.7 32.7 26.0 39.2 30.8 47.6 37.0 59.6 45.9 70.7 53.9 78.7 59.4 0.2 1.7 0.5 4.1 0.7 5.7 1.2 9.8 2.2 17.7 2.7 21.6 3.6 28.6 4.6 36.2 5.7 44.5 6.7 51.9 5.5 5.1 9.0 8.2 11.0 9.9 22.0 19.7 30.5 26.9 36.5 31.8 44.0 38.0 55.0 47.0 65.0 54.9 72.0 60.3 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008p 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
The impact of DVRs on television viewing and television advertising is not yet clear. Overall television viewing is up in the United States despite increased competition from the Internet and video games, suggesting that while the DVR is not contributing to an overall decline in viewing, it is likely contributing to an overall decline in advertising exposure.
Networks and advertisers in the United States shifted from measuring the viewing of programs on a live basis to live viewing plus the viewing of commercials on a program within three days of its original airing, known as C3 ratings. Initial comparisons with prior years live ratings were adverse because of much higher DVR penetration and the fact that commercial skipping was
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occurring even without the DVR but was not measured. Viewers leave the room, switch channels by using their remote control devices, or skip commercials by using their VCR or DVD recorders. Advertisers typically assumed a certain level of commercial skipping in the past. One advantage of the new system is that it actually measures commercial viewing as opposed to program viewing. The issue of commercial skipping is not new; it was a major concern in the early days of the VCR. Early adopters recorded a lot of shows and did a lot of commercial skipping during playback. Over time, the incidence of recording decreased as the novelty effect wore off, and viewers recorded only those shows they had the most interest in seeing. As the incidence of recording decreased, so did commercial skipping, and the issue faded. Also, commercial skipping, as measured by C3 ratings, is not growing as fast as the number of DVR households, which suggests that skipping per household is not growing or is decreasing. Nearly two-thirds of DVR households in North America have had their DVRs for less than two years. As with the VCR, early DVR adopters do a lot of recording, giving them a lot of opportunities for commercial skipping. Moreover, the rapid expansion in the DVR household base means that a growing share of the television universe is watching shows during playback. As the DVR market matures, we would expect that among DVR households, the incidence of recording and watching shows during playback would reach a plateau. Most of DVR recording is for high-rated broadcast network shows. These programs benefit from increased exposure compared with live-only viewing but also experience more commercial skipping. In the near term, with the DVR universe expanding rapidly and dominated by early adopters, the net impact is likely negative. Over time, as DVR household growth slows and as the incidence of commercial skipping stabilizes, commercial viewing will also stabilize. DVR playback occurs during late night hours, after the local late evening news, and, increasingly, during the 10 p.m. hour. Ratings for prime-time shows during that period have fallen more than ratings for shows aired during other time periods. That factor likely was considered in NBCs decision to abandon expensive, scripted shows during that time slot in favor of Jay Leno.
The networks are developing new ways to sell advertising. C7 ratingsviewing of commercials within seven days of the original broadcastare generally holding up well compared with live ratings in the past. While advertisers as a group have not agreed to buy on that measure, for some advertisers whose message is not time sensitive there may be opportunities to sell on that basis. Advertising shown on the lower portion of the screen during the program itself is increasingly being used as a way to avoid the impact of the DVR. Product placements and show sponsorships are alternatives to advertising revenues that have been around for a while. The market in general is changing, and initial broadcasts no longer adequately capture viewing. Cable networks are increasingly airing original scripted shows that are repeated often during the initial week (encore runs). These networks are reporting cumulative viewing levels and are attempting to sell advertising on that basis. Broadcast networks also have repeat airings on television both on their own networks and on their owned cable networks. Programs also are available for streaming over the Internet and are becoming available through video-on-demand, which is, in effect, equivalent to a DVR service. We believe that over time, new audience metrics, including those that measure audience engagement, will become appropriate for certain advertisers and will allow networks to more efficiently sell advertising in the changing environment. In parallel, creative agencies and media buyers are creating proprietary databases aimed at estimating the impacts of multiformat campaigns, even though the measurements in each format are not directly comparable. This may affect on the relative importance of television, which was traditionally the starting point for most major campaign plans over the forecast period. The broadcast networks, as well as the cable networks, will benefit from a growing high-definition (HD) universe. HD set sales were up by more than 20 percent during the first half of 2008, although growth fell during the latter part of the year, when the economy declined. Nevertheless, around 25 percent of television households watch programs in HD.
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Viewing levels in HD households are higher than in nonHD households. As HD penetration expands, television will be better able to hold on to its audiences in the face of growing competition from other media, since HD makes TV more appealing to viewers. Television is also developing 3-D capability. Liquid crystal display sets that are 3-D capable are expected to be introduced in 2009. The 2009 Bowl Championship Series championship game was shown in 3-D-equipped movie theaters to promote the technology, and 3-D has become a successful draw in theaters. It should have a similar impact on television. Ultimately, improved audience retention from HD and 3-D will translate into improved advertising growth.
Over time, viewers longer DVR ownership tenure will mean that the incidence of commercial skipping will flatten rather than increase as it is doing now. This will result in a more stable ratings pattern, benefiting the broadcast networks once the economy recovers. Also, the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics will generate higher ratings in North America due to time zone and cultural connections. In the United States, we look for a 9.3 percent increase in 2012the next Summer Olympics yearand a 3.5 percent decline in 2013: in the next postSummer Olympics year. For the forecast period as a whole, broadcast network advertising in the United States will fall at a 1.9 percent compound annual rate to $16.4 billion from $18 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
In Canada, time shifting of viewing goes beyond DVRs. Cable and satellite providers often carry local stations on their systems and retransmit them nationally to subscribers. Distant-signal retransmission makes it possible for subscribers in one television market to watch local stations originating in another market.
The out-of-market audience for stations in the eastern time zone in Canada is not credited to those stations, and they cannot monetize that viewing by charging advertisers higher rates. Meanwhile, stations in the west may lose viewers because people may have already seen the same program earlier, and this decline in viewing affects advertising.
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Broadcasters in Canada applied to the CRTC for cable and satellite companies to pay broadcasters to carry their stations. The CRTC rejected that request for stations carried by local cable operators but did approve carriage fees for out-of-market distant-signal retransmissions. Broadcasters will be permitted to negotiate carriage fees only for out-of-province stations beginning in September 2011. It is the stated intent of television distributors in Canada to migrate households from DVRs to videoon-demand systems where the operator sells the ad rather than the broadcaster, and ads will not be able to be skipped. Once the video-on-demand systems have been established, distributors will stop offering DVR service. They also intend to encrypt signals to prevent third-party DVRs from functioning. Such a development would reduce the value of traditional broadcasters by limiting the reach of the ads they sell. The broadcast networks will receive a boost in 2010 as the Vancouver Olympics provides an overall lift to the advertising market in Canada. After the Canadian market falls by 12.9 percent in 2009, we project a 3 percent rebound in 2010. A portion of those funds will leave the market in 2011. We look for gains of 5 percent in 2012 and 4.2 percent in 2013. Broadcast network advertising in Canada will decline from $1.78 billion in 2008 to $1.74 billion in 2013, a 0.5 percent decrease compounded annually. Broadcast network advertising for North America as a whole will total $18.1 billion in 2013, down 1.7 percent on a compound annual basis from $19.8 billion in 2008.
networks are reducing the number of scripted shows they air. Scripted shows are the ratings leaders on cable, and as more such programs get added, cable viewing shares should continue to rise. Cable networks are not immune to the economy, and we expect that they too will experience an advertising decline in 2009, projected at 9 percent in the United States and 6.5 percent in Canada. The sharper decrease in the United States will result in part from the fact that cable received a portion of the Olympic and political advertising in 2008 that will be leaving the market in 2009. A new feature of the television advertising market is addressable advertising. Early addressable advertising implementations allow advertisers to send several messages at once in a single spot, with different versions going to different households. This type of addressability can be especially attractive to national advertisers because it enables them to tailor messages more narrowly, which should make them more appealing to distinct groups of viewers (e.g., feature four-wheel drive in cold climates and convertibles in warmer climates). With advertising migrating to the Internet, television providers are looking for ways to make their messages more effective. Early tests of addressable advertising found that households that received them had higher viewing levels for those ads than households that received a common national ad. In 2008, Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Cox Cable, Charter Communications, Cablevision Systems, and Bright House formed Canoe Ventures to create a national addressable-advertising platform. The platform will combine geographic advertising zones used by the cable industry with demographic databases that will allow advertisers to stratify markets by demographic characteristics. The platform will allow up to four versions of an ad to be transmitted simultaneously in a single spot. Canoe Ventures is expected to launch its first addressable-ad platform in 2009. Note: As far as we know, this is not available on broadcast television. The Dish Network and Invidi have also teamed up to offer an addressable advertising platform based on geographic and demographic information. Addressable advertising should enhance the appeal of cable networks to advertisers.
Cable networks
Share gains by cable networks helped them grow faster in 2008 than the broadcast networks despite the fact that the bulk of Olympic advertising in the United States went to the broadcast networks. The expected rise in multichannel penetration related to the analog switchoff should provide a further boost to cable network audience shares in 2009 in the United States and in 2011 in Canada. The economics of cable networks have improved to the point that cable networks are increasing their roster of original scripted programs just as the broadcast
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Cable networks in the United States will no longer benefit from significant penetration gains that translated into double-digit advertising growth through 2005. From 2005 to 2008, cable network advertising rose at a 5.4 percent compound annual rate. Once the economy stabilizes, we expect modest improvement in cable network advertising, with a projected 5.9 percent compound annual advance from 2009 to 2013. From 2008, growth will average 2.7 percent compounded annually to $24.5 billion in 2013. In Canada, the CRTC in 2008 ruled that cable and satellite operators will have flexibility in the packages they can offer to subscribers and that genre protection will be removed for certain types of programming, which will result in competing news and sports channels. Rogers Communications announced in late 2008 that it will launch its own news channel, CITY News Toronto, which will compete with CP24. We expect other news channels to be launched to compete with CBC Newsworld and CTV Newsnet, and other
sports channels to compete with TSN and Sportsnet. Equally, some broadcasters are having difficulty getting broad-based carriage for new specialty channels, such as TSN2, where these compete with distributorowned channels. The major Canadian networks such as CTV and Global are beginning the license renewal process for conventional TV in early 2009. The expectation is that, because of the significant capital investment required, when networks make their submissions, many will ask for flexibility in the requirement to transition to digital. New channels should provide a boost to cable advertising in Canada during 201113, once the economy picks up. We project cable network (specialty channel) advertising in Canada to total $1 billion in 2013 from $928 million in 2008, a 2.3 percent compound annual increase. Overall cable network advertising in North America will expand at a 2.7 percent compound annual rate from $22.4 billion in 2008 to $25.5 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Overview
The television advertising market will decline by a cumulative 12.6 percent during the next two years and then expand at mid-single-digit rates during the latter part of the forecast period to $48.9 billion in 2013, returning to its level in 2008. Terrestrial advertising will fall by a combined 14.5 percent during 200910, stabilize in 2011, and then rebound in 201213. Spending of $39.9 billion in 2013 will be 0.9 percent lower on a compound annual basis from $41.6 billion in 2008. Multichannel advertising will grow by 4.4 percent compounded annually, from $7.2 billion to $9 billion.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Middle East/Africa will be the fastest-growing area in EMEA, with a 5.2 percent compound annual increase to $3.6 billion in 2013 from $2.8 billion in 2008. Growth will be driven by double-digit increases in Saudi Arabia/ Pan Arab during 201213. South Africa will experience a jump in 2010 when it hosts the FIFA World Cup. Central and Eastern Europe, which expanded at double-digit rates during the past five years, will experience a reversal during the next two years and a cumulative 14.9 percent decline. The region was affected later than other areas by the global recession, but it will not escape the recessions impact, especially given Russias economic problems, financial problems in other countries, and the regions closer integration into the world economy than it had a decade ago. We look for the market in Central and Eastern Europe to stabilize in 2011 and to return to double-digit and high-single-digit growth during 201213. Growth for the entire forecast period will average 1.2 percent compounded annually from $11.1 billion in 2008 to $11.7 billion in 2013. Television advertising in Western Europe fell by 3.6 percent in 2008, and we expect a steeper, 11.1 percent drop in 2009 followed by an additional 2 percent decline in 2010. As economic conditions improve, we project a return to mid-single-digit growth during 201213. Overall spending will decline by 0.9 percent compounded annually to $33.5 billion in 2013 from $35 billion in 2008.
Italy at $7 billion and the United Kingdom and Germany at $6 billion each are the three largest markets in the region. Each of those countries recorded declines in 2008 that we expect will accelerate in 2009 and continue through 2010. Russia at $5.5 billion, France at $4.2 billion, and Spain at $4 billion are the next-largest markets. Russia has been expanding at double-digit annual rates during the past five years. That pattern is abruptly changing as the country experiences an economic reversal. We expect decreases during the next two years, with a return to double-digit and high single-digit growth during 201213. France declined by 3.8 percent in 2008, and restrictions on public television advertising combined with a weakening economy will lead to a 12.9 percent drop in 2009 and a 0.4 percent decrease in 2010. Thereafter, the market will expand at low- to mid-single-digit rates. Spains television advertising market had been growing at healthy rates through 2007 but plunged in 2008 as the economy fell into a deep recession. We anticipate a 9.2 percent drop in 2009 followed by a 2 percent decrease in 2010 before economic conditions improve and there is a return to mid-single-digit growth.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Association of Communications Agencies of Russia, Initiative Romania, Institutet fr Reklam- och Mediestatistik, Ofcom, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Near-term decline
Housing declines, scarce credit, weak automobile markets, falling manufacturing, and rising unemployment characterized most economies in Western Europe in 2008. Those developments led to the 3.6 percent decrease in television advertising, far larger than the 0.7 percent decline in the United States. Television advertising in Spain fell by 12.6 percent in 2008, the steepest decline of any country in the world. The Spanish television advertising market had been mirroring the housing bubble, with ad rates escalating dramatically before falling sharply. Greece was down 7.9 percent, the UK fell 5.7 percent, and decreases were also registered in Denmark, France, Germany, and Sweden. In Central and Eastern Europe, the 13.6 percent increase in 2008 continued the trend of double-digit growth. Economic growth assisted by surging oil revenues fueled television advertising in Russia during the past five years, including a 22.3 percent rise in 2008. Romania and Poland also continued to grow at double-digit rates, helped by high inflation in Romania and consumer spending growth in Poland. The Czech Republic and Hungary grew faster in 2008 than in 2007, while Turkey experienced the largest turnaround, falling by 6.3 percent in 2008 after growing by 22 percent in 2007, reflecting the rapidly deteriorating economy. Surging oil revenues also stimulated economic growth and television advertising growth in Saudi Arabia/ Pan Arab during the past five years, including the first half of 2008. During the latter part of 2008, the global recession led to a dramatic reversal in oil revenues, and television advertising growth slowed to 2.8 percent. Each area of EMEA will do worse in 2009 than in 2008, with Central and Eastern Europe recording the largest percentage-point swing: from a 13.6 percent increase in 2008 to a 12.9 percent decline in 2009. In Turkey, a declining economy, exacerbated by a sharp depreciation of Turkish currency, will hurt the television market. We expect television advertising in Turkey to fall by 16.1 percent, which will be the largest decline in EMEA.
We expect falling oil revenues in Russia and the onset of a recession to lead to a 12.8 percent decline in 2009, representing a 35.1-percentage-point reversal from 2008, the largest in EMEA. Western Europe will remain weak in 2009, with a projected 11.1 percent decline. The economy is falling rapidly in the United Kingdom, which we expect will lead to a 15.4 percent decrease in television advertising. France will decline at a projected 12.9 percent in 2009. In addition to the impact of the economy, a new reform effective in 2009 will prohibit the sale of advertising after 8 p.m. on France Tlvisions 2, 3, 4, and 5 in 2009, which will cut an additional 220 million ($320 million) from the total, some of which may be reallocated to other channels. Commercial networks will be required to pay a 3 percent tax on advertising revenues to help fund public television, and the European Commission approved a onetime bailout of France Tlvisions. The net effect will be to help public TV maintain its spending on programming. Spain will continue to decline, with a projected 9.2 percent drop, although that would represent a relative improvement compared with the 12.6 percent decrease in 2008. We expect Middle East/Africa to fall by 5.4 percent rate in 2009, with decreases in each territory. We expect the current economic malaise to continue in 2010 and look for further declinesalbeit at more modest ratesin Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe. We expect Central and Eastern Europe to fall by 2.3 percent in 2010 compared with the 2 percent decrease projected for Western Europe, the only time during the entire 200413 period that Western Europe will not be the slowest-growing area in EMEA. We look for a jump in South Africa in 2010 related to its hosting of the FIFA World Cup and look for Middle East/ Africa as a whole to rise by 6.5 percent. For EMEA as a whole, television advertising will fall by 11.2 percent in 2009 and by an additional 1.6 percent in 2010.
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We expect economic conditions to stabilize sometime in 2010 and television advertising to begin to experience a recovery in 2011, with a 1.4 percent increase. By 201213, we look for a return to economic expansion as the current cycle fully runs its course. As economic conditions improve, we expect a return to historical growth rates during expansions. We project doubledigit gains in both Middle East/Africa and Central and Eastern Europe in 2012, and mid-single-digit increases in Western Europe, in line with historical patterns. Overall growth in EMEA will improve to 7.1 percent in 2012 followed by a 5.3 percent increase in 2013.
In Denmark, five DTT multiplexes will begin broadcasting in 2009, including three carrying new pay TV channels from Boxer; France issued DTT licenses in four regions in late 2008; and three national DTT contracts were awarded in Ireland. DTT is already a major presence in the UK, Spain, France, and Germany. There are more than 9 million DTT homes in the UK, more than 7 million in Spain, around 5 million in France, and 4 million in Germany. Viewing on DTT is growing in these countries, fueling multichannel advertising. Analog switch-off has begun in the UK, with a number of regions scheduled to experience digital switch-over in 2009 and the whole country due to be switched over by 2012. In Italy, RAI and Mediaset are launching DTT platforms to help them fend off competition from Sky Italia. The Expresso Group announced plans to introduce 12 themed DTT channels. The government is now phasing in analog switch-off from 2009 to 2012. Italy now has more than 6 million households that get their programming through DTT. In Spain, Antena 3, Telecinco, Cuatro, and Veo TV have been allocated one DTT multiplex each. La Sexta and Net TV use part of the multiplex capacity of the other TV operators. An important issue that has not yet been defined by the current legislation and that will significantly affect the development of the DTT sector, is the possibility of carrying premium services that command a separate fee, which could be an important incentive for TV operators to invest in DTT. The government has allocated 8.7 million ($12.7 million) to assist in the analog switch-off process. In France, the government has allocated 230 million ($337 million) for the digital switchover, of which 183 million ($268 million) will be used to help low-income households, the households of elderly persons, and
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households headed by disabled people make the transition. Two regions are scheduled to go digital in 2009, with 12 more in 2010 and the final 12 in 2011. In Switzerland, Digital Video BroadcastingTerrestrial (DVB-T) replaced analog transmission completely as from December 2007. All of SRG SSR ide suisses programmes are transmitted in DVB-T. In Portugal, Portugal Telecom is expected to launch a DTT multiplex in 2009, and other companies are applying for DTT licenses that are expected to be awarded in 2010. There is substantial DTT activity in Central and Eastern Europe. Russia is planning to license five or more DTT channels within the next few years, Romania is planning to issue DTT licenses in 2009 or 2010, and Antenna Hungria in Hungary launched to DTT multiplexes in late 2008. Poland will be issuing three DTT multiplexes, but there were expected to have been six had the Office of Electronic Communications been able to reach an agreement with the National Broadcasting Council on the makeup of those multiplexes.
In Middle East/Africa, South Africas first DTT trial began in 2008 and is expected to continue through much of 2009. A DTT service is expected to follow. The expansion of DTT will lead to growing audience shares for multichannel programs, which in turn will boost multichannel advertising once the economy recovers. Multichannel advertising growth slowed to 8 percent in 2008 following four years of double-digit gains. We expect a 4.8 percent decrease in 2009 and a 3.2 percent gain in 2010. Then, during 201113, growth will return to high-single-digit increases, averaging 8 percent compounded annually from 2010 to 2013. For the forecast period as a whole, multichannel advertising will increase at a 4.4 percent compound annual rate to $9 billion in 2013. In Western Europe, the multichannel market will expand at a 3.8 percent compound annual rate to $7.5 billion, while in Central and Eastern Europe, spending will rise by 7.3 percent compounded annually to $1.5 billion.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Ofcom, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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High-definition television
A by-product of the expansion in digital platforms is the creation of capacity for high-definition-television channels. HDTV is gaining momentum in some countries while facing setbacks in others. In the UK, ITV, Channel 4, and the BBC will be launching HD services on Freeview, having been granted approval from Ofcom. Viewers will need a special set-top box to view HD programs on Freeview. There have also been 3-D initiatives in the UK: BSkyB tested a 3-D service that uses its existing HD platform and does not require a separate set-top box. BSkyB also is introducing several new premium HD channels. In France, TF 1, France 2, M6, and Arte were among the terrestrial channels that launched HD channels in 2008. Around 1 million HD-ready sets were sold in 2008 despite the declining economy. The digital switchover in France from 2009 to 2011 will allow for 11 new DTT multiplexes dedicated to HD broadcasting. In Italy, RAI introduced the first Super High Definition channel on DTT, and in Portugal, one of the five services offered by Portugal Telecom on its new DTT platform will be HD. In Germany, the recession is taking its toll on HDTV. ProSiebenSat.1 dropped the two channels it was simulcasting in HD, and there are no major free HD channels expected to be launched before 2010. In Switzerland, national broadcaster SRG SSR ide suisse offers HDTV through its HD Suisse offering. HD Suisse, launched in December 2007, is a joint channel between Schweizer Fernsehen, Tlvision Suisse Romande, Televisione svizzera di lingua italiana, and Televisiun Rumantscha. It transmitted the entire UEFA Euro 2008 football (soccer) tournament in HD. As from 2012, all of SRG SSR ide suisses television channels will be broadcast in HDTV quality through satellite and cable, in parallel with the traditional, standarddefinition quality. In Poland, News Corp. discontinued its strategic partnership with TV Puls, and TV Puls, in turn, canceled plans to launch an HD channel. In Turkey, direct-to-home provider Digital Platform (Digiturk) launched HD channels in January 2008, followed by its competitor D-Smart in August 2008. In Saudi Arabia/Pan Arab, there is a move to introduce multiple satellite feeds that focus on local markets.
Currently, most programming is distributed throughout the region over a unified satellite feed, allowing programs to reach a large potential audience. The disadvantage is that there is a wide disparity in local tastes and in local ad rates. Advertisers often pay to reach several major countries and, in effect, get the rest of the region for free. With split beams, programming can target different areas and appeal to different tastes. Advertisers will pay for the audiences they reach and want, and there will be fewer viewers provided on a free basis. The goal is to generate more advertising revenue. Although progress has been relatively slow and not uniform, HD is advancing in EMEA. We expect that HDTV will make television more appealing and will help television retain viewers despite increased competition from other media. HD also provides advertisers with a more attractive platform. While HD will help television as a whole, it will provide more of a boost to terrestrial channels. During the next two years, terrestrial channels will experience the brunt of the impact of the declining economy. Terrestrial advertising fell by 1 percent in 2008, with a 5.2 percent decline in Western Europe. In 2009 we project a 12.5 percent decrease in Western Europe, a 13.7 percent decline in Central and Eastern Europe, and a 12.3 percent decrease for EMEA as a whole. We expect a further, 2.5 percent decrease in 2010 and a relatively flat market in 2011. By 201213, a return to economic growth and the expansion of HD will boost terrestrial advertising. We project growth to average 5.7 percent annually during that period for all of EMEA, with larger increases in Central and Eastern Europe and Middle East/Africa. For the entire five-year forecast period, terrestrial advertising in Western Europe will decrease to $26 billion in 2013 from $28.8 billion in 2008, a 2 percent compound annual decline. Terrestrial advertising in Central and Eastern Europe will rise to $10.3 billion in 2013 from $10.1 billion in 2008, a 0.5 percent compound annual increase. In Middle East/Africa, growth will average 5 percent compounded annually from $2.8 billion to $3.6 billion. For EMEA as a whole, terrestrial advertising will fall at a 0.9 percent compound annual rate from $41.6 billion in 2008 to $39.9 billion in 2013.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Ofcom, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Asia Pacific
Overview
The television advertising market will decline by 9.0 percent in 2009 and grow at a modest, 0.9 percent in 2010 before expanding to $37.2 billion in 2013, a 0.7 percent compound annual increase from $35.9 billion in 2008. Multichannel advertising will rise from $6.8 billion in 2008 to $10.2 billion in 2013, an 8.5 percent compound annual increase. Terrestrial advertising will decline during the next two years and rebound to $27 billion in 2013, down 1.4 percent on a compound annual basis from $29.1 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Japan has the largest television advertising market in the region, at $15.4 billion in 2008, representing 43 percent of total spending. Japans television market has declined during the past four years, and we expect three additional years of decline, as the economy is again weakening. Although we expect a turnaround during 201213, advertising in 2013 will remain lower than in 2008 by 3.7 percent on a compound annual basis.
The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) has the secondlargest television market, at $7.5 billion. The Beijing Olympics contributed to a 17.8 percent rise in 2008. During the latter part of the 2008, economic growth slowed markedly as exports fell and as the stimulative impact of Olympics was no longer present. CCTV was able to secure a 15.3 percent increase in its auction of prime-time advertising for 2009one-third of which
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was from new advertisersbut the loss of around $400 million in Olympic advertising and slower growth or declines in other dayparts and channels will lead to a drop in TV advertising growth in 2009 to 3.5 percent. Thereafter, television advertising will expand at mid- to high-single-digit rates, reflecting a slower but more sustainable rate of economic growth. The market during the next five years will expand at a 6 percent compound annual rate. Australia at $3.1 billion ranked third in 2008. Television advertising in Australia declined in 2008 as the economy began to falter. We look for a decline during the next two years as the economy remains weak, followed by low-single-digit gains during the subsequent three years. Television advertising in Australia will decrease at a projected 0.5 percent compound annual rate. South Korea is the fourth-largest television advertising country in the region, at $2.6 billion. The onset of a recession led to a 2.2 percent decrease in television advertising in 2008, the third decline during the past five years. The Korean Communications Commission is planning to make the selling of advertising more competitive by introducing private companies to
represent broadcasters. Currently, Korean Broadcasting Advertising Corp., a state-run entity, receives orders from advertisers and allocates them to broadcasters. The hope is that increased competition will expand the advertising market. We expect television advertising to fall by 24.1 percent in 2009 and by an additional 2.3 percent in 2010 and then stabilize, with low-singledigit gains. Spending at $2.1 billion in 2013 will be 4.5 percent lower compounded annually from 2008. India at $2 billion was the only other territory above $1 billion in 2008. Due to the global slowdown, the economy is also slowing in India, although it is still expanding in real terms. Television advertising rose by 10.3 percent in 2008, buoyed by the success of three new, high-profile general entertainment channels and the phenomenal success of Cricket IPL 20-20 matches. The global slowdown impacted advertising in the fourth quarter of 2008, the most important quarter due to events such as Indian festivals. Financial services, consumer goods, and telecommunications are major advertisers and are expected to continue to show growth. We expect growth to average 10.2 percent on a compound annual basis during the next five years.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Commercial Economic Advisory Service of Australia, Korea Broadcasting Advertising Corp., New Zealand Television Broadcasters Council, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, State Administration for Industry & Commerce, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Economic growth
Excluding Japan, television advertising in Asia Pacific has grown at double-digit and high-single-digit rates during the past five years, buoyed by rapidly growing economies in India, Indonesia, Pakistan, the PRC, and Vietnam. During the past four years, television advertising in Japan declined. The disparity in growth rates between Japan and the rest of the region during the past five years averaged 9 percentage points. With the global recession affecting virtually the entire region, five countries Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailandrecorded decreases in television advertising in 2008. Moreover, plunging global oil prices are reducing inflation rates, which in turn lowers nominal GDP growth and advertising growth. We project television advertising in Japan to fall by 15.1 percent in 2009 and the region as a whole to decline by 8.3 percent. While Japan will continue to lag the
region in television advertising, we expect the disparity in average growth rates between Japan and the rest of Asia Pacific to narrow substantially.
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We project an 18.6 percent decrease in television advertising in Singapore in 2009 followed by a 6 percent drop in 2010. In addition to poor economic conditions, declining TV viewingreflecting high broadband penetration and heavy use of online and mobile devicesis hurting the television advertising market in Singapore. Taiwan recorded the largest drop in 2008, 5.1 percent, and we expect a steeper, 17.2 percent decline in 2009. We project decreases in excess of 20 percent in Hong Kong and South Korea in 2009. We also expect declines in Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, and Thailand. India and the PRC, each of which rose at double-digit rates in 2008, will average only 4.7 percent growth in 2009. In the PRC, the prospect of slower advertising growth is affecting the funding of television projects. Investors in The Mysterious Buddha pulled $3 million from the project, causing China Film & Television Production to delay shooting. As economic conditions begin to improve, we expect faster growth or smaller declines in television advertising. Nevertheless, with the economies of India, the PRC, and other countries maturing, we do not expect a return to the scorching advances that characterized the past few years. A relatively healthy economy and strong advertising market will boost Indonesia at a 13.2 percent compound annual rate during the next five years, fastest in the region.
A number of countries are expanding their multichannel platforms. In Australia, Freeview, the DTT platform, was launched ahead of schedulein November 2008 although additional network multichannels will not launch until May 2009. The analog switch-off is slated to begin in 2010. In Australia, multichannel advertising revenues are earned by the subscription television industry. To date there have been no advertising revenues from multichannel DTT services, and it is expected that commercial multichannel DTT services over the forecast period will be negligible. The PRC is testing DTT, with a possible launch in the next few years. Hong Kong launched DTT in late 2007. In India, terrestrial broadcaster Doordarshan also has a free-to-air satellite platform that carries 100 or more channels. Star is making a renewed effort to enter the South India market with a multichannel service. Star launched two regional entertainment channels and also announced plans for a home-shopping channel. Zee Group launched several regional channels. And Network18 group announced plans to launch regional business news channels. In Malaysia, Radio Television Malaysia plans to introduce digital television on a regional basis within the next three years. The digital platform would have 20 channels, and each region would have its own network.
Multichannel penetration
Multichannel penetration is growing rapidly in Asia Pacific, which is expanding the reach of channels on those systems, which in turn increases their advertising potential. Multichannel advertising has grown at double-digit annual rates during each of the past five years. While this segment of the market is not immune to the impact of slower economic growth, rising audience shares will cushion that impact. We expect growth to slow to 1.2 percent in 2009 and then to average just over 10 percent annually.
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Japan has a large DTT universe of more than 23 million households, which is attracting the interest of advertisers. Despite an overall weak television advertising market, multichannel advertising in Japan rose at double-digit rates during the past two years. In Singapore, MioTV, the Internet protocol television service launched by SingTel in 2007, has a deal with Fox, Warner Bros., and Disney-ABC International Television to get access to US programs within 24 hours after they air in the United States, instead of
waiting for months for rights to air those shows. Faster access should boost viewership and advertising. We project multichannel advertising to rise to $10.2 billion in 2013 from $6.8 billion in 2008, an 8.5 percent compound annual increase. Multichannels share of total television advertising will increase from 19 percent in 2008 to 27 percent by 2013. In 2008, Japan at $2.2 billion, India at $1.7 billion, and the PRC at $1.1 billion are the only territories with multichannel advertising in excess of $1 billion.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Terrestrial advertising
Terrestrial advertising, which has been growing at low-single-digit rates during the past four years, will experience the brunt of the overall decline in television advertising because terrestrial channels are losing audience and advertising share.
We expect terrestrial advertising to fall by 11.3 percent in 2009, a decrease exacerbated by the loss of advertising associated with the Beijing Olympics in 2008. We look for a more moderate decline of 1.4 percent for 2010.
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Excluding Japan, terrestrial advertising has grown at mid- to high-single-digit rates in recent years, with a 7.5 percent jump in 2008, helped by the Beijing Olympics. In the PRC, terrestrial advertising in 2008 rose by 19.3 percent. The loss of those funds combined with the weakening economic environment will lead to a 6.6 percent decrease in terrestrial advertising in the rest of Asia Pacific in 2009, with a 17.1 percent drop projected for Japan. Although we expect economic conditions to remain weak in 2010, terrestrial advertising will benefit from advertising associated with the FIFA World Cup. The Delhi Commonwealth Games and the Shanghai Expo will also have a positive impact on terrestrial advertising in 2010. Improved economic conditions and the 2012 Olympics in London will provide a further lift to terrestrial advertising following the 2009 downturn.
An improved economic environment and the expansion of high-definition television should move terrestrial advertising back into positive territory in 201113, with the 3.2 percent increase projected for 2013 expected to be the largest increase since 2004. In Australia, Nine is spending A$30 million (US$25 million) to convert to digital and launched an HD service in early 2008. Seven and Ten had previously launched HD channels in 2007. Foxtel and Sky Network also launched HD in both Australia and New Zealand. Freeview HD was launched in New Zealand in April 2008 and reaches three-quarters of TV households, although usage is only moderate, at 162,000 households. In Hong Kong, the new DTT platform will include HD programs. Many will be simulcast, but new services also will be offered in HD. Taiwan also introduced terrestrial HD in 2008. New HD channels on satellite are expected in India as well. In the Philippines, the National Telecommunications Commission (NTC) requires DTT conversion by 2015 but is still reviewing the migration plan. ABS-CBN started testing the DTT platform in 2008. The plan will be implemented upon NTCs issuance of formal guidelines and the completion of the transition, which is expected within three years. Japan dominates the terrestrial advertising market, at $13.2 billion, 45 percent of the total. The PRC is next, at $6.4 billion followed by Australia at $2.8 billion and South Korea at $1.8 billion. Most of Indias television advertising is multichannel. Indias terrestrial market was only $225 million in 2008.
Terrestrial advertising growth in Japan and the rest of Asia Pacific (%)
15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 Japan Rest of the region 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Near-term declines will offset gains in subsequent years, and terrestrial advertising for all of Asia Pacific will decrease from $29.1 billion in 2008 to $27 billion in 2013, a 1.4 percent compound annual decline.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Commercial Economic Advisory Service of Australia, Korea Broadcasting Advertising Corp., PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Latin America
Overview
Television advertising will decrease during the next two years by a cumulative 7.8 percent and then expand to $13.1 billion in 2013, a 1.4 percent compound annual increase from $12.2 billion in 2008. Terrestrial advertising, which accounted for 91 percent of the market in 2008, will fall by 9.7 percent through 2010 and then recover to $11.4 billion in 2013, a 0.4 percent compound annual increase from 2008. Multichannel advertising will rise to $1.8 billion in 2013 from $1.1 billion in 2008, growing at a 9.8 percent rate compounded annually.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Brazil is the largest market in Latin America, at $5.8 billion in 2008, followed by Mexico at $3.9 billion. Together the two countries constituted 80 percent of the market. Venezuela experienced a 23 percent decline in 2008, in large part the result of a ban on alcohol and tobacco advertising. We expect an additional 3.9 percent drop in 2009. High inflation will boost spending during the next five years by 4.1 percent compounded annually.
Decreases are expected in 2009 in each of the other territories, with Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico continuing to fall in 2010. By 2011, each country will again be growing. Argentina, which also has a high inflation rate, will be the fastest-growing market during the next five years, with a 4.2 percent compound annual increase.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Economic slowdown
Latin Americas television advertising market did well in 2008 despite the onset of a global recession. Latin America was the fastest-growing region in 2008, with a 14.1 percent gain, even with the large decrease in Venezuela and a 5 percent decrease in Chile, two small markets. That gain was well in excess of the 2.2 percent gain in Asia Pacific, the second-fastest-growing region. Advertising associated with the Olympics helped bolster growth in 2008. By the end of 2008, the recession in the United States had begun having an adverse impact on the economies in Latin America as declining exports cut into domestic production. Additionally, falling oil revenues are hurting the economies in Venezuela and Mexico. A slowdown in economic growth and the loss of Olympic advertising will lead to declines in television advertising in 2009 in each country. We expect the overall market to fall by 7 percent, a 21.1-percentagepoint turnaround from the 14.1 percent increase in 2008. We expect a further, 0.8 percent decrease in 2010. By 2011, a stabilized global economy will generate a 2.9 percent increase in television advertising. By 201213, global economic expansion and a rebound in the US economy will fuel economic growth in Latin America. Global economic growth will also lead to a rebound in oil revenues, helping Venezuela and Mexico. We look for increases of 5.1 percent in 2012 and 7.4 percent in 2013.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Multichannel advertising
Growing cable and satellite subscribership is extending the reach of nonterrestrial programming, and an emerging digital terrestrial television universe is augmenting the multichannel market in Latin America. Triple-play packages are now available in a number of countries, including Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. Such packages make multichannel television more attractive to viewers because of the implicit discounts and the convenience of working with a single provider.
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Triple play remains limited in some countries. In Argentina, cable operators have not been offering telephone services to households even though they are allowed to do so, and Telecom Argentina is still not permitted to offer a triple-play service. In Mexico, while cable has introduced triple-play packages, Telmex, the incumbent telephone company, has not yet been granted permission to offer television. DTT has the potential to provide an additional outlet for multichannel advertising. Colombia expects to launch a DTT platform in 2009 with the assistance of Impulsa TDT of Spain in conjunction with the Colombian government. Brazil introduced DTT in late 2007 using the Japanese Integrated Services Digital Broadcasting standard. So far, progress has been spotty. The set-top box is relatively expensive, at 199 reals ($108), which is limiting adoptions. Many households also need an
ultrahigh-frequency antenna to receive the service. Through 2008 there were only about 200,000 DTT households. In Chile, there have been delays in selecting a DTT standard, and the platform is not yet available. In Mexico, TV Azteca launched a 24-hour telenovela satellite channel, creating a new venue for advertising. Televisa Networks and BBC Worldwide introduced two channels from BBC: BBC Entertainment and CBeebies, a channel for preschoolers. Multichannel advertising has been growing rapidly from a small base. In 2008, it rose by 26 percent. The slowing economy will lead to a drop to mid-singledigit gains during the next two years. For the forecast period as a whole, we project multichannel advertising to advance at a 9.8 percent compound annual rate. The market will total $1.8 billion in 2013 from $1.1 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Terrestrial advertising
As in other regions, terrestrial advertising will feel most of the impact of the economic cycle. We expect terrestrial advertising to fall by 8.2 percent in 2009 and by a further, 1.6 percent in 2010. Investment in television production and television programming should help the terrestrial market over the longer run, translating into advertising growth once economic conditions stabilize. In Brazil, TV Record, the second-largest network, is investing 200 million reals ($109 million) in its production facility, with the aim of increasing its production of dramas.
In Mexico, Telemundo abandoned its effort to launch a network in Mexico and instead made a deal with Televisa to show programs from Telemundo on Channel 9. In Colombia, a new channel is expected to be launched in 2009, which could provide an additional terrestrial outlet. We expect growth during 201113 to offset the nearterm declines, and we project terrestrial advertising to rise to $11.4 billion in 2013 from $11.1 billion, a 0.4 percent compound annual increase.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Recorded music
274 Summary 276 North America 281 Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA) 291 Asia Pacific 299 Latin America
Summary
Recorded music
The recorded music market consists of consumer spending on physical formatsalbums, single sound recordings, and music videosas well as digital distribution. Digital distribution consists of music distributed to mobile phones and of music downloaded from the Internet through licensed services. Mobile phone music includes ringtones, ring backs, and ring tunes, also known as master ring tones; mastertones and true tones; and music videos and full tracks that can be played on mobile phones. Mobile music also includes a share of fees paid for bundled services that include music as part of the service bundle. The recorded music market does not include fees paid by satellite radio providers. Also not included are music publishing, live performance, and merchandising revenues, which are likely to become more significant in the future. Spending is measured at retail, which can be substantially higher than the wholesale or trade value revenues that are often reported.
North America will decline by 4.4 percent compounded annually during the next five years to $7.2 billion in 2013 from $9 billion in 2008. EMEA is the largest region, at $11.1 billion in 2008, and will remain the largest despite a 3.6 percent decrease compounded annually to $9.2 billion in 2013. Asia Pacific will overtake North America in 2009 to become the second-largest region, rising to $8.7 billion in 2013, a 0.4 percent compound annual increase from $8.6 billion in 2008. Latin America will decline at a 0.4 percent compound annual rate to $938 million in 2013 from $957 million in 2008.
Principal drivers
Physical distribution will decline in each region because of competition from legitimate digital services and piracy. The digital market is dominated by Internet distribution in North America and EMEA and by mobile distribution in Asia Pacific and Latin America. The availability of music without copyright protection software and a growing broadband universe will boost Internet distribution. The adoption of graduated-response systems, which involve Internet service providers (ISPs) issuing warnings to file sharers that escalate in severity, with the ultimate threat of disconnecting a persons Internet access, will cut into digital piracy in North America and EMEA. Bundled
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services and low-cost or free mobile music will cut into the paid mobile music market in North America and EMEA. Lower-cost Internet distribution and side loading will cannibalize mobile music in those regions in the near term. Over time, the mobile music market will evolve into a subscription-based service. In Asia Pacific and Latin America, mobile music faces less competition from Internet distribution, which will continue to be hampered by high piracy rates. Wireless network upgrades and advanced handsets will fuel mobile music spending in those regions. The music industry is evolving into a
service where the bulk of the revenues will be generated by concerts, merchandising, and advertising. The music itself will be used to draw customers to live performances, in some cases by giving away music for free. Advertisersupported music services that give listeners access to a virtually unlimited array of songs will become more prominent. Despite declines in revenue, overall consumption of music is actually increasing. New business models that monetize that increase will sustain the industry over the long run.
Data for the global recorded music market by region and for the global recorded music market by component can be found within the Executive Summary on pages 40-42.
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North America
Physical distribution will drop from $6.2 billion in 2008 to $2.1 billion in 2013, a 19.4 percent compound annual decrease. Digital distribution will increase at a 12.5 percent compound annual rate to $5.1 billion from $2.8 billion in 2008. Digital distribution will overtake physical distribution in 2011. Licensed music downloaded over the Internet will expand from $1.9 billion in 2008 to $4.4 billion in 2013, a 17.5 percent compound annual increase. Digital music distributed to mobile phones will total $720 million in 2013 from $868 million in 2008, a 3.7 percent decline compounded annually.
Overview
The recorded music market will contract at a 4.4 percent compound annual rate to $7.2 billion in 2013 from $9 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Recording Industry Association of America, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Recording Industry Association of America, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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The US market will decline by a cumulative 22.5 percent through 2012 and at a 4.7 percent compound annual rate through 2013. Those declines will shrink the US market to $6.6 billion in 2013 from $8.4 billion in 2008.
Canadas market will turn positive a year earlier than the US market, helped by a rapidly expanding Internet component. Nevertheless, spending at $592 million in 2013 will be 1 percent lower on a compound annual basis from $624 million in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Recording Industry Association of America, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Internet distribution
The recession did not appear to affect the licensed Internet music market in 2008. Spending rose by 25 percent in the United States to $1.8 billion and by 61.3 percent in Canada to $121 million. The Canadian market is about two years behind the US market with respect to its development and is still experiencing explosive growth from a small base. While single tracks remain the dominant category, digital albums and subscription services that offer streaming gained traction in both countries in 2008. Atlantic Records in 2008 became the first major label to generate a majority of its revenues through digital distribution. We expect that digital revenues will account for a majority of all recorded music revenues in Canada in 2010 and in the United States in 2011. Interest in music does not appear to be abating. In the United States, total unit sales, including physical units and digital tracks and albums, increased by 4.4 percent in 2008. Single-track downloads rose by 28 percent, album downloads increased by 34 percent, and music video downloads grew by 47 percent. The ability to monetize that interest, however, is becoming increasingly challenging. Despite the large growth in Internet revenues, overall spending fell by 18.2 percent in 2008. Digital music does not command the prices of physical music, which makes it difficult to maintain revenue as physical sales fall.
Unauthorized file sharing remains a major impediment for both physical and licensed digital sales. The music industry has been taking legal action against infringers and is now exploring a graduated-response approach, which surveys show may be effective. In December 2008, the Recording Industry Association of America announced an arrangement with the attorney general of New York State to require Internet service providers to issue warnings against subscribers who share unauthorized files. The warnings escalate if behavior does not change, and subscribers may ultimately lose Internet access for continued abuse. The industry also has deals with MySpace and YouTube to license music to those sites in return for a share of the advertising. A number of new streaming sites entered the market in 2008, including MySpace Music, Spotify, We7, and Datz Music Lounge. Last.fm and Pandora entered the market in 2007. These sites sell advertising in exchange for providing music for listeners either at low subscription fees or on a free basis. Given the weak advertising market, it remains to be seen whether ad revenues will be meaningful enough to sustain these efforts. In Canada, Lala was relaunched in 2008. Users can stream songs they already own at no charge and can buy a virtual copy for 10 cents that can be streamed over the Internet but cannot be downloaded. Actual files can be purchased and downloaded for 89 cents.
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An impediment to online distribution was digital rights management (DRM) software embedded in digital music files that limits the ability of buyers to play purchased music on mobile devices from different manufacturers and limits the number of copies a buyer can make. In a deal between Apple and the major music companies reached in early 2009, the music companies agreed to eliminate DRM, and Apple agreed to a variable pricing policy for iTunes tracks that the labels wanted. Labels will now set prices at three price points69 cents, 99 cents, and $1.29. Amazon also has variable pricing and sells music on a DRM-free basis. Most songs will be available at the lower price point, which should further stimulate the market, while new releases will be sold at the premium price, which could boost revenue. At the same time, the increased flexibility of DRM-free music should make downloading more appealing. Internet distribution will also be helped by a growing broadband household universe because it is much faster to download music through a broadband connection. During the next five years, there will be more than 30 million additional broadband households in North America, which will significantly expand the potential market for Internet distribution of music.
We project the licensed Internet distribution market in the United States to more than double during the next five years to $4 billion in 2013, a 16.8 percent compound annual increase from 2008. Internet distribution in Canada will more than triple from $121 million in 2008 to $389 million in 2013, growing by 26.3 percent on a compound annual basis. Overall Internet distribution in North America will total $4.4 billion in 2013, growing at a 17.5 percent compound annual rate from $1.9 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Recording Industry Association of America, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
small. In the United States, mobile music unit sales fell by 6.5 percent in 2008, and falling prices led to a 7.4 percent decrease in spending. Full tracks, which had become the dominant component of the mobile music market, are being adversely affected by high price points. Full tracks can be purchased at half the price over the Internet and either played on portable devices or side loaded to mobile phones.
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New services such as Amazon MP3 in the United States offer low-priced music on a DRM-free basis that can be played on any MP3 or mobile phone. It appears that consumers are not resistant to carrying both iPods and mobile phones, which makes purchasing music on mobile phones less appealing. Handset manufacturers are using music as part of a bundled service in order to reduce churn. In 2008, Nokia launched Comes with Music, and Sony Ericsson introduced PlayNow Plus. Comes with Music handsets allow subscribers to download unlimited music from the Universal music catalog to their phones or computers. PlayNow Plus handsets come preloaded with 1,000 songs. The cost of the music is included as part of the contract, and at the end of the contract, a certain number of songs can be kept. Advertiser-supported streaming services such as Last. fm and Pandora also are available on mobile phones. These services make music available to mobile phones either at no direct cost or at a substantial reduction compared with previous costs for downloading music. Spending on mobile music fell by 7.4 percent in the United States to $816 million. In Canada, growth slowed to 10.6 percent in 2008 from 80.8 percent in 2007. The combination of economic pressures and the availability of cheap or free music will lead to a decline in music revenues in Canada in 2009 and a steeper decrease in the US. Business models in the mobile music market are in flux. We do not expect that advertising will be sufficient to support mobile music by itself. At the same time,
competition across platforms and from new services will limit the amount that can be charged for songs and albums. We expect mobile music will be offered principally as a subscription service not unlike mobile Internet access. Such services as Verizon Vcast have been turned over to Rhapsody and include unlimited music for $14.99 per month. As part of a service contract, subscribers will have access to music. When subscriptions grow in importance, spending on mobile music will increase. In the near term, we expect spending on mobile music to decline. In the US, we project a cumulative decrease of 21.2 percent through 2011 and in Canada will look for decreases of 13.5 percent during the next two years. As the market evolves into a reasonably priced subscription-based service, we look for spending to trend upward from a lower base. We project spending in the US to increase by 4.7 percent from 2011 to 2013. In Canada, we expect spending to stabilize in 201112 and grow by 4.4 percent in 2013. For the forecast period as a whole, mobile music in 2013 will total $673 million in the United States, down 3.8 percent on a compound annual basis from $816 million in 2008. In Canada, mobile music will decline at a 2 percent compound annual rate from $52 million in 2008 to $47 million in 2013. Overall spending on mobile music in North America will decline at a 3.7 percent compound annual rate to $720 million in 2013 from $868 million in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Recording Industry Association of America, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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In Canada, digital music will increase from $173 million in 2008 to $436 million in 2013, growing by 20.3 percent compounded annually. For North America as a whole, the digital music market will rise at a 12.5 percent compound annual rate from $2.8 billion in 2008 to $5.1 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Recording Industry Association of America, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Physical distribution
Spending on physical music fell by 27.5 percent in 2008 and at double-digit rates during the past three years. From 2004 to 2008, physical music fell by 52.6 percent in the United States and by 46.7 percent in Canada. The physical music market is being hurt on virtually all fronts. Digital music is substantially less expensive, individual songs are virtually unavailable in physical formats, piracy remains an ongoing problem, and retail outlets for physical music are becoming scarce. Major chains such as Tower Records and Sam Goody have already closed, and Virgin Megastore announced it plans to leave the United States in 2009. Even big-box retailers such as Wal-Mart are allocating less space to recorded music and carrying fewer titles. In short, physical music is becoming more difficult to buy.
One of the remaining advantages of physical musicits ability to play on any deviceis being eroded by the elimination of DRM software for Internet downloads and mobile music. For these reasons we do not expect physical music to rebound, although we expect declines to moderate somewhat. We project that spending on physical music in the United States will fall at a 19.4 percent compound annual rate to $2 billion in 2013 from $5.8 billion in 2008. In Canada, physical distribution will drop from $451 million in 2008 to $156 million in 2013, a 19.1 percent decrease compounded annually. The overall North American market will total only $2.1 billion in 2013 from $6.2 billion in 2008 and $13 billion in 2004. During the next five years, decreases will average 19.4 percent on a compound annual basis.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Recording Industry Association of America, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Physical distribution will decline at a 10.9 percent compound annual rate, falling to $5.3 billion in 2013 from $9.4 billion in 2008. Digital distribution will grow at an 18.9 percent compound annual rate from $1.7 billion in 2008 to $3.9 billion in 2013, constituting 43 percent of total sales in 2013 compared with 15 percent in 2008. Internet distribution will rise to $3.2 billion in 2013 from $887 million in 2008, a 29.5 percent compound annual increase. Distribution to mobile phones will decline by 19.4 percent during the next two years and then expand by 12.9 percent during the subsequent three years to $698 million in 2013, a 1.9 percent compound annual decrease from $767 million in 2008.
Overview
The recorded music market will contract at a 3.6 percent compound annual rate to $9.2 billion in 2013 from $11.1 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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The United Kingdom has the largest market in the region, at $2.4 billion in 2008, followed by Germany at $2.3 billion and France at $1.6 billion. Those three countries constituted 56 percent of total recorded music spending in EMEA. Steep price cuts for physical music in the UK helped limit unit sales declines but led to a 29 percent drop in spending on physical music in 2008. Gains in the licensed Internet distribution market will help offset continued declines in physical spending. The overall market will fall to $2 billion in 2013, a 3.9 percent compound annual decrease. Germanys physical market has declined at slower rates than in most other countries in Western Europe during the past five years. Although we expect continued erosion in physical spending, a growing digital market will lead to a turnaround in 2012, when we expect Germany to pass the UK to become the largest market in EMEA. Nevertheless, spending of $2.1 billion in 2013 will remain 1.9 percent lower on a compound annual basis from 2008. In contrast with Germany, the physical market in France has plunged at precipitous rates, falling by 41 percent from 2004 to 2008. Growth in Internet distribution will limit decreases in total spending to single-digit levels
beginning in 2010. We project a 7.4 percent compound annual decrease during the next five years, the largest decline of any country in EMEA, with spending dropping to $1.1 billion in 2013. We project recorded music spending in all of Western Europe to decrease at a 3.6 percent compound annual rate to $8 billion in 2013 from $9.6 billion in 2008. Hurt by a weak economy in the near term and a limited digital market, Central and Eastern Europe are projected to fall at a 4.7 percent compound annual rate to $853 million in 2013 from $1.1 billion in 2008. In Middle East/Africa, we look for a relatively modest, 0.8 percent compound annual decrease, the result of slower declines in physical spending in South Africa compared with most other countries in EMEA. South Africa is the only country where we expect spending to be higher in 2013 than in 2008. Overall spending in Middle East/Africa will total an estimated $343 million in 2013 from $357 million in 2008. Because of relatively slow growth in digital spending in Central and Eastern Europe and Middle East/Africa, EMEA will be the only region where we project digital spending to remain substantially lower than physical spending during the next five years.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Internet distribution
Licensed Internet distribution had previously been sold with digital rights management (DRM) software that limited the ability of users to transfer songs to mobile devices and restricted the ability of users to burn CDs or otherwise copy music. The result was that buyers of licensed product had less flexibility in using that product than did people who obtained music through file-sharing services. That trend is now changing, and licensed distribution is being sold largely without DRM software. Tesco, Dada, HMV MP3, Play.com, and 7Digital are among the online retailers that sell DRM-free music. Retailers report that sales jumped when DRM was eliminated, particularly for digital albums, which represent an expanding component of the market. Spending on licensed Internet music rose 51.6 percent in 2008. Countries are investigating new strategies to combat piracy. In France, legislation has been introduced to create a graduated-response system. Internet service providers will issue warnings to customers who are heavy abusers of copyright. Those who ignore two warnings will face sanctions of up to a year of lost Internet access. Research suggests that warnings from ISPs are effective. In the UK, a memorandum of understanding was reached in 2008 between major ISPs and the recording industry under which ISPs sent out thousands of warning letters to customers about illegal downloads and promoted legitimate services. In early 2009, a tax on broadband access was proposed, with the proceeds used to generate data on copyright abusers. In Belgium, a court ordered Scarlet (formerly Tiscali) to make it impossible for customers to use file-sharing services for illegal purposes, with the onus on the ISP to use filtering technology to distinguish unauthorized files. In Finland, a court ordered TeliaSonera to suspend Internet access by customers who upload large numbers of illegal files. The industry is optimistic that these new approaches that center on ISPs will be more effective than previous efforts. In 2008, the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry removed 3 million infringing Internet links, up from 500,000 in 2007.
The market will also benefit from an expanding broadband household universe. The number of broadband households in EMEA will increase by 92 million during the next five yearsa 70 percent increase that will significantly expand the potential market for music downloading, as it is much faster and easier to download from a broadband connection.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
The UK has the largest Internet distribution market in EMEA, at $450 million in 2008, with Germany next, at $116 million, followed by France at $88 million, together accounting for 74 percent of spending in EMEA. Competition among a large number of online retailers and surging album sales are boosting spending in the UK, which rose by 50.5 percent in 2008. Digital albums also are fueling growth in Germany, with spending rising by 31.8 percent in 2008. France posted a comparable, 31.3 percent increase, buoyed by subscription streaming services that augmented the market. We expect that DRM-free product, more effective antipiracy efforts, and the expanding broadband universe will propel licensed Internet distribution. We project spending to rise from $887 million in 2008 to $3.2 billion in 2013, a 29.5 percent compound annual increase.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: BV Phono, NVPI, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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phoneis growing as more songs become available on a DRM-free basis. Internet downloads are much less expensive than purchases of songs through a wireless carrier. Now that side loading is no longer facing DRM, we expect the practice to expand, which will shift spending from mobile services to Internet downloads. Over time, we expect mobile music to evolve into a subscription service that is part of an overall mobile data package that includes mobile Internet access and, possibly, mobile television. Bundled services are succeeding in the telephone/broadband/television markets, and we expect they will come to dominate the mobile market as well. In that environment, a portion of the subscription fee for the overall bundle will cover the cost of the music, and users will have extensive access to stream music through their mobile devices. During the next two years, we expect a drop in spending on music purchases through mobile networks. By 2011, we expect that subscription services that include music will become large enough to offset declines in traditional spending. Nevertheless, spending in 2013 will remain lower than in 2008. For the forecast period as a whole, mobile music spending will decrease from $767 million in 2008 to $698 million in 2013, a 1.9 percent compound annual decline. Western Europe will total $462 million in 2013, a 0.9 percent decrease on a compound annual basis from $483 million in 2008. Central and Eastern Europe, where near-term economic conditions are very weak and there are fewer new services entering the market, will decrease from $256 million to $207 million, a 4.2 percent decline on a compound annual basis. Middle East/Africa will edge up at a 0.7 percent compound annual rate to $29 million in 2013 from $28 million in 2008.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Even if efforts to reduce unauthorized file sharing succeed, we do not expect it will help the physical market, because spending will most likely shift to licensed digital services. The physical market has largely abandoned singles because they are not economical. Relatively few songs are now released as singles, and retailers are discontinuing them. In 2008, Woolworths in the UK stopped selling singles. The digital market, by contrast, generates most of its volume by selling single songs that are not available at any price in the physical market. Physical distribution also is much more expensive than digital distribution, and DRM-free music will make digital distribution even more appealing. For these reasons, we do not expect a rebound in physical music. We expect spending to fall at a 10.9 percent compound annual rate to $5.3 billion in 2013 from $9.4 billion in 2008. Compared with 2004, spending in 2013 will be 64 percent lower.
Physical distribution
Physical distribution fell 14.4 percent in 2008, its steepest decline during the past five years. The physical market has been hurt by physical piracy, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, where counterfeit CDs reduced spending for licensed product. In Western Europe, the shift to digitalboth legitimate and unauthorizedhas led to large reductions in physical sales.
288
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Asia Pacific
Physical distribution will decline at a 9.5 percent compound annual rate to $3.4 billion in 2013 from $5.6 billion in 2008. Digital distribution will rise to $5.3 billion in 2013, up 12.5 percent on a compound annual basis from $3 billion in 2008. Digital spending will overtake physical spending in 2011 and by 2013 will account for 61 percent of total recorded music spending. Mobile phone distribution accounted for 83 percent of digital spending at $2.5 billion in 2008. Spending will increase to $4.3 billion in 2013, an 11.5 percent advance on a compound annual basis from 2008. Internet distribution will grow to $1.1 billion by 2013 from $493 million in 2008, a 16.7 percent compound annual increase.
Overview
Recorded music spending will remain essentially flat during the next five years, edging up at a 0.4 percent compound annual rate to $8.7 billion in 2013 from $8.6 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Japan is the dominant territory, at $6.6 billion in 2008, 77 percent of total recorded music spending in Asia Pacific. Spending dipped by 0.8 percent in 2008 as an 8.6 percent decrease in physical spending was nearly offset by an 18.6 percent increase in digital. Japan has the largest mobile music market in the world, at $2.1 billion in 2008, which represents 51 percent of global spending on mobile music. In the near term, a declining physical market will offset an expanding digital market as it did in 2008. By 2011, digital growth will offset physical declines. Spending in 2013 will increase to $6.7 billion, a 0.2 percent compound annual gain. Australia is the second-largest country, at $662 million in 2008. The physical market accounts for 86 percent of recorded music spendingsecond highest in the region behind India. Declines in physical spending will offset growth in digital through 2012. Spending in 2013 will total an estimated $562 million, down 3.2 percent on a compound annual basis from 2008. South Korea, the third-largest market, at $409 million, has a high piracy rate and a small legitimate physical market that accounts for only 13 percent of spending, lowest in the region. South Korea has the largest Internet distribution market in Asia Pacific in both absolute and share terms. Its $218 million in legitimate Internet downloads constituted 53 percent of total spending in 2008. With the legitimate physical market playing virtually no role, we project an expanding digital market to generate an overall 4.4 percent compound annual increase during the next five years.
India is the only country in Asia Pacific where legitimate physical spending has been increasing in recent years. Although the market flattened in 2008 and we do not expect much growth going forward, physical spending will not pull the market down. At the same time, the digital market is relatively undeveloped in India. Although growth in percentage terms will be significant, at 34.8 percent compounded annually, the actual contribution of digital to spending will be modest. We project total spending in India, the fourth-largest market in 2008, to grow at a 7.2 percent compound annual rate to $242 million in 2013. The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) has a legitimate market of only $145 million in 2008, which represents a tiny fraction of all activity. More than 99 percent of the files downloaded in the PRC are illegal. There also is widespread physical piracy, as the PRC is a major source of production of pirated discs. Mobile music accounts for half of legitimate spending, and digital as a whole represents 61 percent of spending. With the physical market relatively small, declines in that sector, which we project at 14.5 percent compounded annually, will not have a major impact on total spending. Digital spending in the PRC during the next five years will expand at a 20.4 percent compound annual rate, and the total market will grow by 11.4 percent compounded annually, the largest percentage gain in the region. Nevertheless, legitimate spending will remain a small component of total activity.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
South Korea is a distant second in mobile phone music spending, at $136 million in 2008. A national HighSpeed Downlink Packet Access networkintroduced in 2007facilitates music downloads and contributed to a 27.1 percent increase in 2008. We look for a slowdown during the next two yearsas the recession cuts into growthfollowed by a subsequent pickup when the economy improves. We project the mobile music market to grow to $186 million in 2013, a 6.5 percent compound annual increase. The PRC has the third-largest mobile phone distribution market in Asia Pacific, at $72 million in 2008. Restructuring of the telecommunications market will make the wireless market more competitive, and the introduction of third-generation (3G) services in 2009 should boost the mobile market. We project a 21 percent compound annual increase to $187 million in 2013, propelling the PRC just ahead of South Korea.
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The remainder of the region is small and in its early phases of development. Virtually all countries are upgrading their networks to offer faster speeds and more services. As the new networks are rolled out, wireless carriers will offer advanced applications, including the option to download music, which will stimulate spending throughout the region. Wireless network upgrades are being accompanied by the launch of new handsets, some of which are specifically designed to be used for listening to music. They have the capacity to store thousands of songs and can play them in high-quality stereo.
In contrast with North America and EMEA, Internet distribution of music is not a strong competitor of mobile music in Asia Pacific, reflecting the lower proportion of households with Internet access in the region. Consequently, we are not seeing a transition to lower-cost Internet downloads. We project mobile phone music spending in Asia Pacific to increase at an 11.5 percent compound annual rate to $4.3 billion in 2013 from $2.5 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
294
Internet distribution
The licensed Internet distribution market is not nearly as well developed as the mobile market. Spending totaled only $493 million in 2008, less than 20 percent the size of the mobile music market. Illegal downloading is dramatically cutting into spending on licensed Internet music. Unauthorized files are estimated to represent 95 percent of all downloads and more than 99 percent in the PRC. New Zealand in April 2008 introduced a graduatedresponse system to combat online piracy. Under the proposed system, Internet service providers will be required to identify subscribers who are persistent downloaders of unauthorized files and to issue warning letters. If warnings are not heeded, responses escalate and can include termination of Internet privileges. Despite enactment in April 2008, the process stalled. It did not come into force as expected in March 2009 because of objection from telecommunications companies and ISPs about its workability. The New Zealand government is still reexamining the legislation, and its outcome is uncertain. In Japan, a consortium of trade associations in the music and film industry and ISPs are considering adopting a graduated-response system as well. The market also is being hampered by some users discomfort in using credit cards to purchase products over the Internet. Despite those impediments, the market is posting large percentage gains. Spending in 2008 rose by 34 percent. The entrance of Apples iTunes Music Store in several territories is stimulating the market. Spending in Japan more than doubled in 2007 and rose by 43 percent in 2008. In Australia, the market rose by 82 percent in 2008. In the PRC, by contrast, spending has been flat during the past two years. Several major Web sites were forced to curtail their music markets because of copyright infringement, and others are exploring advertiser-supported models because they are finding it difficult to induce customers to pay for music.
In the Philippines, music downloading kiosks are being set up by record companies. Sony BMG runs Music to Go, while Star Records is considering developing its own dedicated kiosks. Over the longer run, broadband growth will expand the potential for music downloading in Asia Pacific because it is faster and easier to download music through a broadband connection. There were 145 million broadband subscribers in Asia Pacific in 2008. During the next five years, an additional 119 million will substantially expand the market, enlarging the potential universe for Internet music distribution by 82 percent. We project spending on music distributed over the Internet to grow to $1.1 billion by 2013, a 16.7 percent compound annual increase. Although the percentage growth will be significant, Internet distribution will remain a relatively small component of the market, accounting for 12 percent of total spending in 2013.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
295
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Japan, which has the largest digital market, at $2.2 billion in 2008, will increase to $4 billion in 2013, a 12.2 percent compound annual gain. South Korea will rise from $354 million to $485 million, a 6.5 percent gain compounded annually.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
297
Physical distribution
The physical distribution market fell by 9.3 percent in 2008, its largest decline during the past five years. Each country except India recorded decreases, and India was flat. Japan and Australia have the largest physical distribution markets, at $4.3 billion and $568 million, respectively. In contrast with the PRC and South Korea, physical piracy is less of a major problem in Japan and Australia, which accounts for their large physical markets. Nevertheless, both territories are declining. In Australia, following a rebound in 2006, spending fell by 24 percent during the past two years. In Japan, physical sales have been declining for years, and the decrease in 2008 was 8.6 percent.
In the remaining territories, piracy and licensed digital music contributed to declines in physical distribution during the past five years. Piracy is particularly acute in Indonesia, Malaysia, the PRC, South Korea, and Thailand, reducing spending in those territories well below actual levels of consumption. Continued piracy and growth in legitimate licensed digital services will further cut into physical distribution during the next five years. We project physical spending to fall at a 9.5 percent compound annual rate comparable to the decline in 2008. Spending will drop from $5.6 billion in 2008 to $3.4 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
298
Latin America
Physical distribution will decline from $762 million in 2008 to $476 million in 2013, a 9 percent decrease compounded annually. Digital distribution will reach $462 million in 2013, growing at an 18.8 percent compound annual rate from $195 million in 2008. Mobile phone music spending will total $314 million in 2013 from $153 million in 2008, a 15.5 percent compound annual increase. Licensed Internet distribution will generate $148 million by 2013, rising at a 28.6 percent compound annual rate from $42 million in 2008.
Overview
The recorded music market will decline during the next three years by 9.8 percent and then expand by 8.7 percent to $938 million, down 0.4 percent on a compound annual basis from $957 million in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
299
Brazil and Mexico were the largest markets, at $373 million and $335 million, respectively, in 2008. Brazil rose 1.9 percent fueled by a surging digital market that more than doubled in 2008, offsetting a 14.5 percent decline in physical distribution. In Mexico, the digital gain was a more muted, 34.6 percent, not enough to offset a 12.5 percent decrease in physical spendingand leading to an overall 5.6 percent decline.
Argentina has the third-largest market, at $105 million in 2008, down 9.5 percent from 2007. Argentina does not have a significant digital market; digital spending constituted less than 4 percent of the total. Physical spending had been increasing through 2007 before falling by 10.6 percent in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Music handsets, too, are driving the market. Manufacturers have introduced phones specifically designed to play music. Music phones now represent around 20 percent of all handset sales. Brazil and Mexico have the largest markets, at $68 million and $63 million, respectively, in 2008. Colombia was a distant third, at $11 million, and the remaining countries are each at $5 million or less. Upgrades to 3G and increased availability of music through new stores will continue to drive spending. In the near term, the recession will keep increases at less than 10 percent. When the economy recovers, we expect growth to return to double digits, with gains in excess of 20 percent annually projected for 201213. We project spending on mobile phone music to increase to $314 million in 2013, a 15.5 percent compound annual gain.
300
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
As broadband continues to grow, we expect that the potential market will become large enough to attract more licensed music services, which in turn will drive legitimate spending. We project the licensed Internet music market will increase to $148 million in 2013, a 28.6 percent compound annual increase. Brazil will account for 82 percent of that gain and will remain the dominant market, at $120 million, 81 percent of the total in 2013. Mexico, at $22 million, will be the only other country with a significant market. Spending in each of the remaining countries will be $3 million or less. High piracy rates will continue to impede licensed spending.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
301
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
increase from $70 million to $130 million, a 13.2 percent increase compounded annually. We do not expect any other country to reach $25 million in digital music spending during the next five years. Digital spending will nearly reach physical spending by 2013, accounting for 49 percent of the market.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Physical distribution
Physical distribution spending plunged by 30.5 percent during the past two years, principally because of steep declines in Brazil and Mexico. In Brazil, physical spending has been falling since 2004, and decreases accelerated during the past two years, with a cumulative 41.1 percent decrease. In Mexico, the physical market had been increasing through 2006 before turning around and falling by 34.4 percent from 2006 to 2008. Chile, like Brazil, has been falling steadily since 2004. In Argentina, Colombia, and Venezuela, by contrast, spending was higher in 2008 than in 2004. Venezuela continued to advance in 2008, Colombia was flat, and Argentina began to decline.
High piracy rates have depressed the physical distribution market for years, and beginning in 2007, a digital market in Brazil and Mexico is creating legitimate competition for physical distribution. We expect Brazil and Mexico to experience the steepest declines in physical spending because they will be the only countries with a significant digital alternative. We project a 9.7 percent compound annual decrease in Brazil and a 13.3 percent compound annual decline in Mexico. High inflation will limit decreases in nominal terms in Argentina and Venezuela. For Latin America as a whole, we project spending on physical music to fall at a 9 percent compound annual rate to $476 million in 2013 from $762 million in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
303
304
Filmed entertainment
306 Summary 307 North America 316 Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA) 331 Asia Pacific 342 Latin America
Summary
Filmed entertainment
The filmed entertainment market consists of consumer spending at the box office for theatrical motion pictures, plus spending on rentals of videos at video stores and other retail outlets (the in-store rental market) and the purchase of home video products in retail outlets and through online stores (the sell-through market). It also includes online film rental subscription services, such as those in which physical DVDs are delivered via overnight mail, and streaming services whereby films are downloaded via a broadband Internet connection. The figures do not include either music videos (which are counted in the Recorded Music chapter) or video-ondemand, pay-per-view, or movie distribution by cable, satellite, or telephone companies (which are covered in the Television Subscriptions and License Fees chapter).
spending will total $38.8 billion in 2013 from $34.7 billion in 2008, a 2.2 percent increase compounded annually. Instore rental spending will be relatively flat at $17.6 billion in 2013 compared with $17.7 billion in 2008, edging down at only a 0.1 percent compound annual rate. Online rental subscriptions will expand at an 18.2 percent compound annual rate to $6.7 billion from $2.9 billion in 2008. Digital downloads will rise to $1.4 billion in 2013 from only $286 million in 2008, a 37.7 percent compound annual increase from a small base.
Principal drivers
Box office spending will be enhanced by a growing share of 3-D releases that generate higher prices and higher ticket sales than standard, 2-D films do. Modern theaters and more screens in a number of countries in EMEA, Asia Pacific, and Latin America will also boost spending. The adverse economy will cut into physical sell-through in the near term. Over the longer run, growth in Blu-ray highdefinition (HD) videos will offset a declining DVD market and propel overall sell-through. Rentals will benefit from a weak economy in the near term as their lower prices will be more attractive. Over the longer run, competition from video-on-demand and online distribution will cut into in-store rentals. The convenience of online rental services will boost spending. Faster broadband speeds and devices that allow TV viewing will propel a small digital download market. Piracy will continue to hold down spending, particularly in Asia Pacific and Latin America. Piracy is getting worse in the Philippines and Thailand and continues to significantly cut into legitimate spending in the Peoples Republic of China, South Korea, and Indonesia. Piracy also is a problem in Western Europe, with Spain and France experiencing declines as a result of growing piracy. A key factor affecting the market in any given year is the quality of releases and their appeal to consumers, a development we cannot predict. Filmed entertainment will be the rare segment where we expect somewhat faster growth in 2009 than in 2008. That is due to improved box office spending from a larger array of 3-D releases and a modest gain in rental spending as the recession leads consumers to low-cost rentals for entertainment.
Data for the global filmed entertainment market by region and for the global filmed entertainment market by component can be found within the Executive Summary on page 43.
306 PricewaterhouseCoopers | Global entertainment and media outlook: 20092013
North America
Physical sell-through will decline during the next two years and then rebound to $18 billion in 2013 from $16.7 billion in 2008, a 1.6 percent compound annual increase. In-store rental spending will edge down at a 0.4 percent compound annual rate from $8.5 billion in 2008 to $8.3 billion in 2013. Online rental subscription services will nearly double to $4.5 billion in 2013 from $2.3 billion in 2008, a 14.5 percent gain compounded annually. Digital downloads will nearly triple from $253 million in 2008 to $753 million in 2013, expanding at a 24.4 percent compound annual rate. The overall home video market will advance at a 2.6 percent compound annual rate, reaching $31.5 billion in 2013 from $27.7 billion in 2008.
Overview
The overall filmed entertainment market will expand at a compound annual rate of 3.4 percent from $38.2 billion in 2008 to $45.1 billion in 2013. Box office growth will average 5.2 percent compounded annually from $10.6 billion in 2008 to $13.6 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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The United States will expand at a 3.3 percent compound annual rate to $40.9 billion in 2013 from $34.8 billion in 2008, while Canada will rise from
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Box office
The box office market held up reasonably well in 2008 despite the economic downturn, rising by 1.7 percent in the United States and falling by only 1.1 percent in Canada. This relatively strong performance demonstrates that the roster of titles and ticket prices have more influence than the economy does on box office growth. That said, it is difficult to assess the impact of the economy on box office spending, because the box office market is one of the few areas in entertainment and media where virtually all content is new each year.
Historically, the economic cycle has had little or no systematic impact on box office, which suggests that a rising economy does not necessarily help the market and a falling economy does not necessarily hurt it. Rather, the appeal of the roster of films plays a large role in determining the overall level of spendingmore so than in any other segment. While the economy may not play a significant role, several other trends have emerged. The transition to digital projection and the conversion of digital cinemas into 3-D-capable venues are providing a measurable boost to spending.
308
As the share of 3-D screens increases, average prices will rise as more screens will command premium rates. In fact, higher prices accounted for the steady box office performance in 2008. In the US, the 4.4 percent price increase from 2007 to 2008 offset a 2.6 percent drop in admissions. In Canada, the 4.2 percent price increase nearly offset the 5.1 percent decrease in admissions. Virtually all films with a 3-D version generate proportionally more revenue from 3-D screens than from 2-D screens. Journey to the Center of the Earth, for example, generated 57 percent of its opening weekend box office gross on 3-D screens, even though only 30 percent of the screens were 3-D. Similar ratios have characterized most 3-D releases to date. In addition to selling more tickets, exhibitors are charging premium prices for 3-D, which accounts for their disproportionate revenue. The roster of 3-D releases is scheduled to increase substantially during the next two years. In 2009, 17 films will be released with 3-D versions compared with 7 in 2008, and in 2010, 30 films in 3-D are scheduled. To take advantage of 3-D, studios are converting prior films to 3-Dat a cost of around $12 million per film. Toy Story, Toy Story 2, and all six of the Star Wars films will be reissued in 3-D. Shrek 4, the next installment in that successful franchise, will also be released in 3-D in 2010. The potential for 3-D is currently limited by a shortage of screens. There are around 5,000 digital screens in the United States and about 100 in Canada, but not all have been upgraded to 3-D. Monsters vs Aliens was released in 2009 on 1,550 3-D screens in the US and Canada out of its total theater count of 4,104.
To address the shortfall, in October 2008 five studios Disney, Fox, Lionsgate, Paramount, and Universal entered into a $1-billion deal with Digital Cinema Implementation Partnersa joint venture of AMC, Cinemark, and Regalto convert 15,000 screens in the US to digital. That deal, however, was subsequently derailed because financing could not be obtained. Consequently, the expected conversion to digital will be delayed, and the hoped-for boost from the increase in 3-D releases will be delayed as well. Once converted, digital screens still need to be upgraded to 3-D. As films are increasingly distributed digitally, box office revenues may rise, since physical prints are no longer needed and the same title can be shown on more screens. In Canada, Cineplex Entertainment and National CineMedia are converting most of their theaters to digital. It is expected that virtually the entire exhibition industry will be converted to digital within the next few years. Over time, the increasing share of 3-D screens will boost average prices, a pattern we expect will materialize during 201213. In the near term, we look for more-moderate price growth because of the recession. In the United States, where most of the 3-D conversion will occur, we project average ticket prices to increase at a 4.6 percent compound annual rate to $9.00 in 2013 from $7.18 in 2008. In Canada, prices were high in the early part of the decade, actually fell from 2004 to 2005, and remained lower in 2008 than in 2004. We project a 3.1 percent compound annual increase from $6.94 to $8.07.
309
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Motion Picture Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Statistics Canada, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Although the release roster will ultimately be the principal driver of admissions in any year, we expect that the increase in the number of 3-D films will have a positive impact on admissions. At the same time, the economic environment is having an impact on film financing and causing studios to cut back on their production schedule, but the impact on admissions is unclear. Cutbacks could have a modest adverse effect on admissions, although there is no direct correlation. That said, fewer films being released can also be a benefit, as there is less fragmentation of the market. In Canada, Telefilm Canada introduced a new development program that funds previously successful producers to develop films. The focus is on producing
local films that will be commercially viable. In general, the better the local films, the better the overall box office performance even though local films constitute a small minority of the content. On balance we expect modest admissions growth during the next two years and somewhat faster increases during 201113 as the pace of digital conversions picks up. For the entire five-year forecast period, we project admissions to rise by 0.6 percent compounded annually in the United States and at a 1 percent compound annual rate in Canada. As a result, total admissions in North America will increase to 1.52 billion in 2013 from 1.48 billion in 2008.
Admissions (millions)
North America United States Canada Total 2004 1,484.0 119.6 1,603.6 2005 1,376.0 120.3 1,496.3 2006 1,395.0 118.5 1,513.5 2007 1,400.0 118.0 1,518.0 2008p 1,364.0 112.0 1,476.0 2009 1,365.0 112.5 1,477.5 2010 1,370.0 113.0 1,483.0 2011 1,380.0 114.0 1,494.0 2012 1,390.0 116.0 1,506.0 2013 1,405.0 118.0 1,523.0 200913 CAGR 0.6 1.0 0.6
Sources: Motion Picture Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Statistics Canada Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Box office spending will expand at a projected 5.2 percent compound annual rate in the United States to $12.6 billion in 2013 from $9.8 billion in 2008. In Canada, growth will be a more modest, 4.1 percent compounded annually, as 3-D will play somewhat less
of a role. Spending will rise from $777 million in 2008 to $952 million in 2013. The overall North American market will increase from $10.6 billion in 2008 to $13.6 billion in 2013, a 5.2 percent increase compounded annually.
310
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Motion Picture Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Statistics Canada, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
software sales totaled $750 million, four times the 2007 level. Adjusting for the different economic climates and for the sluggishness of the overall sell-through market that currently affects both hardware and software, we believe the expansion path of the DVD can act as a guide to project the impact of Blu-ray. The experience of 3-D films in theaters demonstrates that people are willing to pay extra for enhanced product. A few dollars extra in the theater, of course, is different from an outlay of several hundred dollars for HD hardware. During the next two years, the weak economy will depress hardware purchases, and the high price points for Blu-ray discs will limit growth. We expect declining DVD sales to continue to outpace rising Blu-ray sales, and overall sell-through spending will decline over 200910. Beginning in 2011, as economic conditions improve, the Blu-ray universe will grow faster, which will boost Blu-ray disc sales. Hardware prices have already begun to come downplayers are now available for less than $300which will help expand penetration. We expect overall sell-through spending to turn around in 2011 and post a low-single-digit gain, with accelerating increases projected for 2012 and 2013. The tightening of release windows also will benefit sell-through. Films are now entering the video market within a few months of their box office release, thereby enabling them to capitalize on the initial box office marketing effort. Once the economy improves, we expect that shorter release windows will have a positive impact on sell-through spending. Films are also reaching the video-on-demand market faster than in the pastin some cases, concurrent with, or even prior to, their home video release. Video-ondemand will become a more competitive factor during the next five years.
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We project the US market to decline by a cumulative 7.4 percent during the next two years and then rebound with a 16 percent increase during the subsequent three years. By 2013, sell-through spending will total an estimated $16 billion, up 1.4 percent on a compound annual basis from $14.9 billion in 2008. Despite that increase, projected spending in 2013 will still be lower than during 200407.
We anticipate a similar pattern in Canada. Sell-through spending will fall by 3.9 percent through 2010 and then expand by 17.8 percent during 201113, for an overall compound annual increase of 2.5 percent to $2 billion from $1.8 billion in 2008. Sell-through spending in North America as a whole will average 1.6 percent compound annual growth from $16.7 billion in 2008 to $18 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
In-store rental The in-store rental market may be benefiting from the weak economy. When disposable income is tight, rentals represent an economical alternative. Consumers have cut back on their video purchases while maintaining lower-cost rental spending. Rental spending from 2007 to 2008 edged up 0.3 percent in the United States and 0.6 percent in Canada. The rental market also is being fueled by the rollout of low-cost rental kiosks in supermarkets and other locations. Blockbuster in the United States is installing 10,000 kiosks. Blu-ray will also weave its way into the rental market, which will make rentals more appealing. The in-store rental market faces substantial competition, which is inhibiting growth. Video-on-
demand is growing rapidly and cutting into the rental potential. There is also an emerging online rental subscription market that is proving to be convenient and popular. As that market expands, it will squeeze in-store rentals. On balance, we expect the rental market to be relatively steady, benefiting from its lower price point and the greater convenience resulting from the increased number of kiosks. We project US rentals to rise by 0.4 percent in 2009 and then to decline at modest rates, falling to $7.5 billion in 2013 from $7.7 billion in 2008, a 0.4 percent decrease compounded annually. In Canada, rental spending will increase during the next two years and then trend down, falling at a 0.6 percent compound annual rate from $821 million in 2008 to $797 million in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
312
Online distribution
Videos can also be obtained directly over the Internet through digital downloads and through online rental subscriptions. Digital download market The digital download market has been hampered by long download timesit can take two hours or more to download a movie on a standard broadband connectionand the fact that people prefer watching movies on a television rather than a computer screen. Both hurdles are being addressed. The Internet access market is transitioning to faster speeds that can accommodate movie downloads. Services are being introduced with speeds of up to 50 megabits per second, which allows movie downloads in just a few minutes. While such speeds are currently not widely available, as systems get upgraded with fiber, more people will have high-speed broadband as an option. As penetration increases, movie downloads will become more feasible. United States The Apple TV was introduced in 2007, and in 2008 several new providers introduced devices that allow movies downloaded to a computer to be viewed on a TV set. Netflix in conjunction with Roku offer a $100 set-top box that streams movies to a TV. Blockbuster followed with a direct-to-TV player. HD films are also becoming available. Apple TV offers both conventional and HD selections, and Netflix offers
HD films that can be viewed using Xbox 360 or Bluray. Blockbuster launched Blockbuster on Demand that uses a similarly priced device from 2Wire that is capable of downloading HD films. While advances will propel the market, we expect the potential will remain limited during the next five years. In the near term, the economy will be an impediment to fast broadband and incremental hardware expenses. Over the longer run, while penetration will increase with an improved economy, a minority of Internet subscribers will be able to download at speeds of 50 Mbps. These handicaps will keep spending relatively low through 2013, although we anticipate significant growth from a small base. In the United States, consumers spent an estimated $252 million downloading movies in 2008. We expect that total to rise to $713 million in 2013, a 23.1 percent increase compounded annually. Canada In Canada, the digital download market is just getting started. Through the Apple TV platform and Bell Canada, iTunes launched a movie download service in 2008, and Canada has a high broadband penetration, which will provide a large potential market for streaming. We expect that digital downloads will generate $40 million in 2013. North America The overall digital download market in North America will total $753 million in 2013, up 24.4 percent on a compound annual basis from $253 million in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
313
Online subscription rentals Online subscription rental services deliver DVDs directly to the home via overnight mail. They allow users to keep DVDs as long as they want, and they provide free return mail. Subscribers order videos online, and when one is returned, the next is sent. In addition to saving on the time and cost of going to the video store, these services eliminate late fees and provide guarantees of title availability. The rental option still has appeal for people who do not necessarily want to view movies multiple times. In the United States, Netflix, the developer of this market, is the leader. Blockbuster is the other principal provider. In Canada, Zip.ca is the market leader. The online subscription rentals market is benefiting from the increased interest in rentals during a period of economic decline. Both providers also offer streaming at no additional charge, which is helping attract subscribers.
Blockbuster added video game rentals to its service, which is helping expand its subscriber base. Additionally, Blockbuster lets users return videos to the store and pick up new videos without having to go through the mail. Online rental subscriptions in the United States rose by 22.9 percent in 2008 to $2.2 billion. That total will rise to an estimated $4.1 billion in 2013, a 12.8 percent increase compounded annually. In Canada, the market more than doubled to $56 million in 2008. We project it will rise to $422 million in 2013, a 49.8 percent compound annual increase from a small base. Overall spending will rise to $4.5 billion from $2.3 billion in 2008, a 14.5 percent compound annual increase.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
The US home video market will grow at a 2.5 percent compound annual rate from $25 billion in 2008 to $28.3 billion in 2013. In Canada, home video spending will reach $3.3 billion in 2013 from $2.7 billion in 2008, a 4.2 percent increase compounded annually.
314
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
From 2004 to 2008, the share of filmed entertainment revenues in North America generated by physical home video fell from nearly 70 percent to 61.3 percent, with video-on-demand and online subscription rental increasing their combined share to 12.4 percent from only 4.3 percent in 2004. We expect a larger drop in the physical home video share during the next five years to 52.8 percent. The combined share for video-on-demand, online subscription rentals, and digital downloads will double to 20 percent, and the box office share will increase to 27.3 percent in 2013 from 25.7 percent in 2008 as a result of 3-Ds growing penetration.
315
Home video physical sell-through will decline in 2009 and then advance to $14.9 billion in 2013, up 2.9 percent on a compound annual basis from $12.9 billion in 2008. Home video in-store rentals will fall by 4.3 percent compounded annually to $2.1 billion in 2013 from $2.6 billion in 2008. Online subscription rentals will grow at an 11.8 percent compound annual rate to $791 million from $453 million in 2008. Digital downloading will generate $484 million in 2013 from $30 million in 2008. Overall home video spending will total $18.2 billion in 2013 from $15.9 billion in 2008, a 2.7 percent increase compounded annually.
Overview
Filmed entertainment spending in EMEA will total $30.7 billion in 2013, averaging 3.7 percent growth compounded annually. Box office spending will rise by 5.4 percent compounded annually to $12.5 billion in 2013 from $9.6 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
316
Western Europe, at $22.9 billion, accounted for 90 percent of filmed entertainment spending in EMEA in 2008. Growth in Western Europe during the next five years will average 3.4 percent compounded annually to $27.1 billion in 2013. Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will be the fastestgrowing area, averaging 6.9 percent growth compounded annually. Spending will rise from $2.2 billion in 2008 to $3 billion in 2013. Middle East/Africa will expand at a 3.8 percent compound annual rate to $514 million. The United Kingdom is the largest market in the region, at $6.5 billion in 2008. France is next, at $3.8 billion, followed by Germany at $3.5 billion, Italy at $1.9 billion, Spain at $1.6 billion, and Russia at $1.4 billion. These six territories constitute 74 percent of filmed entertainment spending in EMEA. A second consecutive rainy summer in the UK brought people to the movies. Mamma Mia! became the highest-grossing film in UK history, surpassing Titanic. A Christmas surge in Blu-ray discs led to an overall growth in sell-through in the UK, the only territory in Western Europe to record an increase. In France, a strong roster of local films boosted box office by 7 percent, which was not sufficient to offset a steep decline in home video.
Local films also contributed to box office growth in Germany, while home video recorded only a modest decline. In Italy, by contrast, local films did poorly in 2008 following a strong 2007, and overall box office plunged 10.3 percent. In Spain, piracy continues to hurt all components of the market, leading to sharp declines in box office and home video. Overall spending fell 13.1 percent, the largest decrease in EMEA in 2008. The Netherlands will be the only other country in Western Europe to reach $1 billion during the next five years, helped by a boost in box office and sell-through during 201213. Russia continued to surge in 2008, with a 27.5 percent gain, the largest increase in EMEA. Box office jumped by 46 percent buoyed by the opening of modern screens, by higher prices, and by double-digit growth in admissions. A strong performance by local films propelled box office in Turkey and the overall market by 22.1 percent in 2008. No other territory recorded a double-digit gain.
317
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Box office
Although Hollywood films account for a majority of ticket sales in most countries, the performance of local films often determines whether box office spending rises or falls. Hollywood films did well internationally in 2008. Nevertheless, in countries where local films did not do well, such as Italy and Spain, overall box office spending fell. On the other hand, strong local films helped buoy box office in France, Germany, and Turkey. The economy did not appear to have much of an impact on box office spending. In most territories, box office in 2008 either rebounded from a down year in 2007 or grew faster. With respect to film production, the economy may be having an effect. In Russia, a number of projects in production at Mosfilm, the countrys largest studio facility, got postponed or canceled because of the international financial crisis and difficulties in obtaining financing. Governments view the film industry as an important contributor to the economy and take steps to support that industry. While support of local films does not guarantee they will appeal to consumers, incremental funding can improve the chances they will succeed. One of the most successful efforts is Germanys new Film Fund, established in 2007. The fund is attracting international players, and more resources are being put into German-language films. Fox is expanding its German operations, Universal began a Germanlanguage operation, and Fremantle Media announced it plans to relaunch UFA Cinema and make eight German films annually beginning in 2010. In the UK, the Film Council Development Fund is investing more than 2 million ($3.7 million) in local production companies to develop feature films. Ireland recently announced increased tax incentives for film production, which will enhance Irelands attractiveness as a location for film production. The Swiss government is increasing its subsidy for script development, the Swedish Film Institute provides support for local projects, Russia has announced more than $150 million in annual support for local films, and Poland provides grants to support domestic productions and
coproductions with a foreign partnerall of them efforts that are believed to be boosting the industry. Momentum is also building for conversion of screens to digital and the implementation of 3-D in anticipation of an increase in 3-D releases. In the UK, Cineworld is converting more than 70 screens to digital, and Odeon and UCI converted 30 screens to 3-D. Arts Alliance Media raised funds from private investors and from Econocom Financial Services to finance digital conversions throughout Europe. Arts Alliance Media also teamed up with Arqiva Satellite & Media to distribute digital films via satellite. Digital cinemas have a number of advantages. Because digital prints are substantially less expensive than standard duplication, more prints can be made for less money, which will allow new releases to be available in more theaters than is currently economically feasible. This means that films will be accessible to more people closer to the films initial release, which should have a positive impact on their box office performance. The Netherlands in early 2009 had the first virtual print distribution through Arts Alliance Media. Digital prints also provide a better-quality picture and do not deteriorate after repeated screenings. These characteristics should improve the theatrical experience and boost admissions. The key driver, however, is the revenue potential of 3-D. Films in 3-D command higher prices, sell more tickets, and generate substantially more money per screen than standard films do. The issue has not been pressing in the past because only a few films were available in 3-D. That is about to change as Hollywood ramps up its 3-D production. During the next two years, 47 films are scheduled to be released in 3-D from Hollywood, and there is beginning to be interest among local producers as well. There is now concern that the limited number of 3-D screens will cause films to not realize their revenue potential. Consequently, interest in digital and 3-D conversions is increasing, although the ability to finance such conversions has become more difficult as credit is less available.
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In Central and Eastern Europe, modernization of theaters is proving to be a significant driver. Russia has built a number of modern theaters that allow for higher prices. During the past two years, admissions in Russia rose by 38 percent, and box office spending increased by 84 percent. Although we do not expect that pace to continue, we still look for admissions to rise by nearly 30 percent during the next five years. In Norway, municipal film promotion agency FILM&KINO is scheduled to start its national digital rollout in 2009 at an estimated total cost of KR400 million ($58 million), which will be shared with distributors and producers. We expect that digital and 3-D cinemas in Western Europe, modern theaters in CEE, and increased funding for local films will enhance admissions. We project admissions to increase at a 2.7 percent compound annual rate to 1.3 billion in 2013. Led by Russia and Turkey, CEE will be the fastestgrowing area in EMEA, with a projected 4.4 percent compound annual increase in admissions to 269 million from 217 million in 2008. Admissions in Western Europe will increase from 862 million to 958 million, a 2.1 percent rise compounded annually. Admissions in Middle East/Africa will rise at a 2.6 percent compound annual rate to 88 million from 78 million in 2008. These forecasts reflect our analysis of underlying trends. They do not take into account the performance of the slate of prospective releases, which can significantly enhance or offset admissions in any given year.
Admission prices
Admission prices in 2008 averaged $9.25 in Western Europe in 2008 compared with $6.38 in Central and Eastern Europe and $3.10 in Middle East/Africa. The average price in Russia soared by 26 percent in 2008, reflecting the impact of modern theaters and a much larger percent of admissions in those high-priced venues. From 2004 to 2008, the average price in Russia rose by a cumulative 65 percent. We do not expect increases on that order and project a more modest, 4 percent compound annual increase during the next five years. In general, we expect smaller price increases during the next two years as exhibitors moderate hikes in a difficult economic environment. During the latter part of the forecast period, when the share of 3-D screens becomes meaningful and those screens attract a larger share of admissions, we expect faster price growth. The average price in EMEA rose 3.6 percent in 2008, the largest increase during the past five years. Most of that rise was fueled by Russia. Excluding Russia, the average price increased by only 2.5 percent. We project increases averaging 2.4 percent compounded annually during 200911 and gains averaging 3.1 percent during 201213. For the entire five-year forecast period, prices will advance at a 2.7 percent compound annual rate, rising from $8.30 in 2008 to $9.48 in 2013.
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Admissions (millions)
EMEA Western Europe Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom Western Europe total Central and Eastern Europe Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Russia Turkey Central and Eastern Europe total Middle East/Africa Israel Saudi Arabia/Pan Arab South Africa Middle East/Africa total EMEA total 9.5 36.9 28.3 74.7 1,210.3 8.8 37.1 29.2 75.1 1,099.9 8.8 39.2 29.8 77.8 1,149.5 8.9 40.0 26.5 75.4 1,145.7 9.0 40.5 28.0 77.5 1,156.0 9.1 41.0 29.0 79.1 1,178.3 9.2 42.0 30.0 81.2 1,202.9 9.4 43.0 31.0 83.4 1,237.4 9.6 44.0 32.0 85.6 1,274.7 9.9 45.0 33.0 87.9 1,314.8 1.9 2.1 3.3 2.6 2.6 12.0 13.7 33.3 4.0 76.5 29.7 169.2 9.5 12.1 23.5 2.8 83.1 27.3 158.3 11.5 11.7 32.0 2.8 89.5 34.8 182.3 12.8 10.1 32.6 2.9 106.6 31.1 196.1 11.6 10.0 33.7 2.8 123.9 34.5 216.5 11.8 10.0 34.0 2.8 126.0 36.0 220.6 12.0 10.1 34.5 2.8 130.0 38.0 227.4 12.3 10.2 35.5 2.8 140.0 40.0 240.8 12.7 10.3 36.5 2.9 150.0 42.0 254.4 13.2 10.4 38.0 3.0 160.0 44.0 268.6 2.6 0.8 2.4 1.4 5.2 5.0 4.4 19.4 24.1 12.7 6.9 195.3 156.7 14.0 17.3 116.3 23.0 11.9 19.8 143.9 16.6 17.2 171.3 966.4 15.7 22.1 11.8 6.1 175.7 127.3 13.2 16.4 105.6 20.6 11.3 18.6 127.7 14.6 15.1 164.7 866.5 17.3 23.8 12.8 6.7 189.0 136.7 13.4 17.9 107.0 23.4 11.9 19.4 121.7 15.3 16.5 156.6 889.4 15.7 22.3 12.1 6.5 178.0 125.4 14.0 18.4 120.2 23.1 10.7 19.0 116.9 15.2 14.3 162.4 874.2 16.2 22.5 12.3 6.7 188.8 129.4 14.5 18.8 107.0 24.2 11.7 19.2 96.1 15.4 15.0 164.2 862.0 16.3 22.6 12.5 6.8 195.0 133.0 14.8 19.3 110.0 24.4 11.7 19.4 96.0 15.5 15.3 166.0 878.6 16.6 22.7 12.7 6.9 200.0 136.0 15.1 19.7 113.0 24.6 11.8 19.7 96.1 15.8 15.6 168.0 894.3 17.0 23.0 13.0 7.1 205.0 140.0 15.5 20.3 116.0 24.9 11.9 20.1 96.3 16.1 16.0 171.0 913.2 17.3 23.5 13.3 7.3 210.0 144.0 16.0 20.9 120.0 25.2 12.2 20.5 96.6 16.4 16.5 175.0 934.7 17.6 24.0 13.6 7.5 215.0 148.0 16.5 21.5 125.0 25.5 12.5 21.0 96.9 16.7 17.0 180.0 958.3 1.7 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.2 1.1 1.3 1.8 0.2 1.6 2.5 1.9 2.1 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008p 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 200913 CAGR
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Centre National de la Cinmatographie, Danish Film Institute, FILM&KINO, Finnish Chamber of Films, German Federal Film Board, Ministry of Culture of the Czech Republic, National Film Office of Hungary, Nederlandse Federatie voor de Cinematografie, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Spanish Ministry of Culture, Swiss Federal Statistical Office, UK Film Council, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Centre National de la Cinmatographie, Danish Film Institute, FILM&KINO, Finnish Chamber of Films, German Federal Film Board, Ministry of Culture of the Czech Republic, National Film Office of Hungary, Nederlandse Federatie voor de Cinematografie, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Spanish Ministry of Culture, UK Film Council, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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The success of Blu-ray in the UK suggests that HD has the potential to revitalize the industry in the same way that DVDs boosted sell-through when it was introduced. Currently, the installed base for Blu-ray is too small to offset the declining DVD market. The economic downturn discouraged Blu-ray hardware purchases in 2008, although having a single HD standard will help the market over the long run. In addition to Blu-ray players, the market also needs an installed base of HDTV sets. Analog switch-offs in a number of countries are leading households to buy digital TV sets, which generally are HD ready. The installed base of HD households is growing. In the UK, for example, more than 12 million HD-ready TVs have been sold. Although Blu-ray is penetrating the market through video game consoles, it is not yet clear that gamers are using their consoles to play movies. Sales of stand-alone players are still small, and the weak economy will likely limit growth during the next two years. Accordingly, we expect the sell-through market to remain weak, falling by 2.4 percent in 2009 and remaining relatively flat in 2010. We expect economic conditions to improve by 2011 and anticipate a relatively strong economy during 201213. With disposable incomes rising, and with Bluray hardware prices falling, we expect hardware sales to pick up and the installed base to expand. As it does, software sales will increase. Beginning in 2011, gains in Blu-ray will begin to offset declines in DVD, and by 201213, we look for mid- to high-single-digit growth. We expect the UK to lead growth in Western Europe, with a projected 5 percent compound annual increase, as it appears to be adopting Blu-ray faster than other countries. Piracy will continue to restrain growth in France and will lead to reduced spending in Spain. Germany will decline in 2009 and will record accelerating increases thereafter as Blu-ray gains penetration. We project physical sell-through in Western Europe to increase at a 2.8 percent compound annual rate to $13.8 billion in 2013 from $12 billion in 2008. CEE will expand by 4.2 percent compounded annually to $921 million from $751 million in 2008. Middle East/Africa will grow by 3.7 percent compounded annually to $109 million in 2013. Physical sell-through for all of EMEA will increase from $12.9 billion in 2008 to $14.9 billion in 2013, a 2.9 percent compound annual increase.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: British Video Association, Danish Film Institute, GfK Group, NVPI, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Statistics Finland, Videobransjens Felleskontor, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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In-store rentals The in-store rental market in EMEA has been declining since 2002 and continued to fall in 2008. The 4.4 percent drop in 2008 was the smallest since 2004. During 200607, rental spending fell at double-digit annual rates. We believe there is a countercyclical element to the rental market. Although rental spending fell faster than sell-through in 2008, the rental trend showed a relative improvement, suggesting that some consumers opted for lower-priced rentals for entertainment. During the next two years, we look for declines of 3 percent or less as the economy remains weak. We then expect accelerated declines during 201113, when economic conditions improve and spending shifts in favor of sell-through.
The in-store rental market will also face growing competition from online subscription and digital download services as well as from a growing videoon-demand market. In-store rental spending in Western Europe will decline at a 4.5 percent compound annual rate to $1.9 billion in 2013 from $2.4 billion in 2008. Central and Eastern Europe will decrease from $37 million in 2008 to $30 million in 2013, a 4.1 percent compound annual decline. Middle East/Africa will drop from $96 million to $90 million, a 1.3 percent compound annual rate. For EMEA as a whole, in-store rental spending will decrease at a 4.3 percent compound annual rate to $2.1 billion in 2013 from $2.6 billion in 2008.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: British Video Association, Danish Film Institute, GfK Group, NVPI, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Videobransjens Felleskontor, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Online distribution
Movies can also be accessed through digital download services that allow users to download films to their computers. Devices that can transfer films to the TV are also helping the market. Apple added movie downloads to its iTunes service, which contributed to online download growth throughout Europe in 2008. Jaman opened a site in 2008 in the UK with a catalog of 1,000 titles and plans to launch sites in other countries as well. BSkyB in the UK and Canal Plus in France are other leading providers. The digital download market will benefit from growing broadband penetration, which will expand the potential market for streaming. At the same time, piracy will cut into legitimate sales.
The market was dominated in 2008 by the UK, Germany, and France, which together generated $23 million in legitimate spendingmore than threequarters of the overall total for Europe. We do not expect digital downloads to become a major revenue stream, because piracy remains a problem. Nevertheless, we look for the market to generate momentum during the latter part of the forecast period when more households have fast broadband services. We expect the UK to continue to dominate, with a projected $204 million in 2013 followed by France at $95 million. Germanys markethaving initially been driven by rentalremains predominantly rental instead of purchase-to-own, and average prices are much lower than in other countries, accounting for a relatively low spending total despite significant activity. Overall spending will rise from only $30 million in 2008 to $484 million in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Online rentals Along with streaming movies, online subscription rentalswhereby subscribers order films online for delivery via mailare also becoming an important component of the rental market. Services typically offer a range of prices for different levels of monthly rental activity. Online subscription services provide a convenient alternative to going to the video rental outlet. They also will be able to offer high-definition DVDs, which may be difficult for the streaming market for households that do not have ultrafast broadband. Several companies entered the market during the past two years. In Germany, for example, Amango, Glorimedia, LOVEFiLM International, and Videobuster now offer online rental services.
The UK, Italy, and Spain were the largest online rental markets in 2008, together constituting $214 million, or nearly half of the Western European total. We expect online rental spending to rise from $453 million in 2008 to $791 million in 2013, an 11.8 percent compound annual increase. Total home video The overall home video market will expand at a 2.7 percent compound annual rate, rising to $18.2 billion in 2013 from $15.9 billion in 2008. Western Europe will total $17.1 billion in 2013, up 2.6 percent on a compound annual basis from $15 billion in 2008. CEE will grow at a 3.8 percent rate compounded annually to $951 million, and Middle East/Africa will rise to $199 million, a 1.3 percent compound annual gain.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: British Video Association, Danish Film Institute, FILM&KINO, GfK Group, NVPI, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Asia Pacific
Box office will rise from $6.8 billion to $9.9 billion, a 7.8 percent increase compounded annually. Home video physical sell-through will grow at a 2.5 percent compound annual rate to $5 billion from $4.4 billion in 2008. Home video in-store rentals will rise at a 1.5 percent compound annual rate to $6.7 billion from $6.2 billion. Online rental subscriptions will grow at a 51.9 percent compound annual rate to $1.4 billion in 2013. Digital downloads will generate $179 million in 2013. The overall home video market will increase from $10.8 billion to $13.3 billion, a 4.2 percent gain compounded annually.
Overview
Filmed entertainment spending will expand at a 5.7 percent compound annual rate to $23.3 billion in 2013 from $17.7 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Japan is the dominant market in the region, at $8.7 billion in 2008, nearly half of total spending in Asia Pacific. Australia is next largest, at $2.4 billion, followed by India at $1.8 billion and South Korea at $1.3 billion. Japan generated its third consecutive increase in 2008 with a 1.1 percent advance. Its large physical rental market continued to expand in 2008, offsetting a drop in sell-through and a modest decline in box office. Australia recorded its second consecutive double-digit advance, rising by 12.9 percent in 2008. Home video continued to grow rapidly, buoyed by the popularity of TV DVDs, which are boosting both sell-through and rental. The market also was enhanced by rapidly growing online subscription rentals. India rose by 10 percent in 2008, its third double-digit advance during the past four years. Rising admission prices boosted box office spending, offsetting a disappointing roster of local films that led to flat admissions and a 21 percent decrease in home video.
South Korea experienced its second consecutive weak performance at the box office as local films continued to lose share. Local films accounted for 43 percent of admissions in 2008 compared with 65 percent in 2006. Piracy continues to cannibalize what is left of the home video market, and it is hampering a legitimate digital download business. The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) was the fastestgrowing territory in 2008, with a 24 percent increase. New cinemas and the growing appeal of local films contributed to the second consecutive 27 percent increase in box office spending. The home video market in the PRC is plagued by piracy, and legitimate spending is only a small fraction of the overall level of consumption. As a result of piracy over the years, of recent political turmoil in Thailand, and of the global economic recession, the number of Thai films produced decreased from 55 titles in 2007 to 35 titles in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Box office
Admissions New multiplexes are driving admissions in a number of countries, and the installation of digital projection equipment will provide a boost during the next five years. Digital cinemas have a number of advantages, including better picture and sound than standard prints have. Digital prints are much less expensive than standard prints, making it economical for films to be distributed to a larger number of theaters. Digital also provides a platform for 3-D, which is emerging as the principal driver of box office spending. Prices and admissions are higher for 3-D films, giving them a significant revenue advantage over standard films. To capture the revenue potential of 3-D, exhibitors are now devoting more resources to digital and 3-D conversions. GDC Technology, a Hong Kongbased company, announced it plans to install 6,000 digital projection systems throughout Asia, financed in part by Hollywood studios. In the PRC, the pace of new cinema construction continued in 2008, with the screen count rising by 16 percent. Local productions and coproductions also proved to be popular, generating 61 percent of total admissions. Eight films reached the 100-million-renminbi ($14.4-million) threshold in 2008 compared with only three films in 2007. The pace of the construction of new screens is expected to continue, with the Wanda Group announcing plans to build 100 cinemas in 2009. In addition, the PRC is a leader in digital screens, with around 700, second highest in the world behind the United States. That figure includes around 150 3-D screens. The government is actively promoting 3-D, which enabled Disney to bypass the 20-film Hollywood quota and release Bolt in 3-D in September. The government also is pushing for digital cinemas in smaller towns and in rural areas. Admissions in the PRC rose 23 percent in 2008, the fifth consecutive increase in excess of 20 percent. We expect admissions to expand at an 11.3 percent compound annual rate to 725 million in 2013 from 424 million in 2008.
New multiplexes also contributed to admissions growth in Hong Kong and Taiwan. In Hong Kong, admissions rose by 7.3 percent in 2008. Four major multiplexes opened in 2007, and several others entered the market in 2008. Interest in 3-D conversions also is growing, spurred by the expected increase in the number of 3-D releases from Hollywood. Taiwan posted a 2.2 percent increase in admissions, helped by the addition of digital screens and a revitalized interest in local films. Taiwan had around 20 digital screens in operation in 2008, doubling the total from the previous year. As with many other markets, recent installations are being driven by individual 3-D titles. With the onset of the economic downturn, however, Taiwanese exhibitors are slowing their digital investment while hoping for signs of a studio-supported financing plan. In India, new multiplex construction and digital conversions are continuing. BIG Cinemas announced plans to convert 500 screens to digital during the next two years, with 300 expected by year-end 2009. By 2013, more than half of all screens in India will have digital projection. The impact of digital screens will be felt in rapidly rising admission prices. Admissions will increase to a projected 3.4 billion in 2013, a 0.6 percent compound annual increase. In Australia, conversion to digital and 3-D is picking up. Three-dimensional blockbuster films such as Journey to the Center of the Earth generated a great deal of consumer excitement and higher-than-average revenues in 2008. Within the next 5 to 10 years, virtually all screens will have been converted to digital. A new government incentive plan, known as the producer offset, offers a 40 percent rebate for approved productions. It is expected to attract more international and local film investment. In Japan, although admissions slipped by 2.2 percent in 2008, local films did well, contributing 7 of the top 10 releases. High-end cinemas are also attracting interest. Shinjuku Piccadilly opened a luxury cinema in Tokyo in 2008 with luxury rooms, large seats, concert-style speakers, and high prices. Tokyu Recreation has a deal with Imax to build four big-screen theaters. There were around 100 digital screens in 2008, a figure that will increase as conversions pick up. We expect admissions
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to return to a positive path in Japan, with a projected 2.3 percent compound annual increase during the next five years. Singapore also benefited from new screens in 2008 and generated a 2.8 percent increase in admissions. Singapore is pushing digital and 3-D. The Singapore Film Commission established a S$10-million (US$7million) 3-D development fund to boost 3-D filmmaking activities in Singapore and build an industry of 3-D practitioners. The government has also announced plans to develop a 19-hectare plot of land into a new
studio facility called Mediapolis that could be used by local independent producers and foreign companies. Digital conversion also is occurring in South Korea. By 2013, more than half of all screens are expected to be digital. We project admissions in Asia Pacific to rise at a 2.1 percent compound annual rate to 4.8 billion in 2013 from 4.4 billion in 2008. India and the PRC will account for 84 percent of that growth.
Admissions (millions)
Asia Pacific Australia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Malaysia New Zealand Pakistan Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Total 2004 91.0 175.0 18.0 3,100.0 42.0 170.1 23.0 17.0 34.0 62.5 16.0 130.0 22.0 31.0 NA 3,932 2005 82.0 220.0 16.8 3,200.0 43.3 160.5 26.0 15.0 32.0 61.0 14.8 140.3 22.1 32.5 NA 4,066 2006 82.0 280.0 16.6 3,200.0 46.2 164.3 28.0 16.0 30.0 62.9 15.6 163.9 22.6 32.7 1.0 4,162 2007 83.0 345.0 17.7 3,250.0 47.4 160.0 30.4 16.0 29.0 65.0 18.0 157.6 23.0 36.0 2.0 4,280 2008p 88.0 424.0 19.0 3,250.0 48.0 156.5 32.0 16.2 28.5 65.5 18.5 149.2 23.5 33.0 3.0 4,355 2009 89.0 490.0 20.0 3,250.0 49.0 158.0 33.0 16.5 28.0 67.5 19.0 150.0 24.0 33.3 4.0 4,431 2010 90.0 560.0 21.0 3,275.0 50.0 160.0 34.0 16.8 28.2 68.0 19.5 152.0 25.0 33.4 5.0 4,538 2011 91.0 620.0 22.0 3,300.0 51.0 165.0 36.0 17.2 28.6 68.5 20.0 155.0 26.0 33.6 6.0 4,640 2012 92.0 675.0 23.0 3,300.0 52.0 170.0 38.0 17.6 29.0 69.0 20.5 160.0 27.0 33.8 7.0 4,714 2013 93.0 725.0 24.0 3,350.0 53.0 175.0 40.0 18.0 29.4 69.5 21.0 165.0 28.0 34.0 8.0 4,833 200913 CAGR 1.1 11.3 4.8 0.6 2.0 2.3 4.6 2.1 0.6 1.2 2.6 2.0 3.6 0.6 21.7 2.1
Sources: Korean Film Commission, Motion Picture Distributors Association of Australia, Motion Picture Distributors Association of New Zealand, Motion Picture Producers Association of Japan, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Admission prices Low prices in high-admission countries such as India and the PRC hold down the overall average for Asia Pacific to only $1.57. In Japan, by contrast, the average was $12.03, and it was above $8 in Australia and Taiwan and above $6 in Hong Kong, New Zealand, Singapore, and South Korea. For most countries, we look for prices to grow faster during 201113 than during 200910, reflecting growing penetration of high-priced digital and 3-D screens in the
admissions mix. We expect double-digit price growth in India as the industry converts to digital. In the Philippines, Congress has approved House Bill 5624, reducing the amusement tax on cinema tickets from 30 percent to 10 percent to reduce admission prices. This tax break is aimed at reviving the local film industry, which has been hampered by high taxes. The overall average price will rise by 5.6 percent compounded annually to $2.06 in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Box office spending Japan has the largest box office market in Asia Pacific, at $1.9 billion in 2008, with India next at $1.6 billion. We expect the PRC and India to be the fastest growing of the major countries, with compound annual increases of 14.8 percent and 13.2 percent, respectively, during the next five years. We expect India to overtake Japan in 2011 to become the leading
market. Together, India and the PRC will generate 64 percent of total box office spending growth in Asia Pacific during the next five years. Excluding India and the PRC, box office spending in Asia Pacific will grow at a projected 4.4 percent compound annual rate. For Asia Pacific as a whole, box office spending will increase from $6.8 billion in 2008 to $9.9 billion in 2013, a 7.8 percent compound annual growth rate.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Korean Film Commission; Motion Picture Distributors Association of Australia; Motion Picture Distributors Association of New Zealand; Motion Picture Producers Association of Japan; State Administration of Radio, Film, and Television; PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP; Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
leaving as well but then returned at year-end 2008 in a licensing arrangement with United Entertainment Korea. Japan and Australia dominate the legitimate sellthrough market, together accounting for 75 percent of total spending in 2008. Japans market fell by 4.9 percent in 2008, hurt by the falling economy, which in the fourth quarter posted its largest decline in years. We expect further decreases during the next two years. We then look for a rebound during the latter part of the forecast period as Blu-ray sales pick up. Japan has a large installed base of Blu-ray game consoles, which households are beginning to use to play Blu-ray movies. The market also needs an installed base of HDTVs, whose sales will be hurt in the near term by the slumping economy. Although growth in this segment of the market will not be sufficient to offset declining DVD sales during the next few years, we expect they will begin to do so in 2013.
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The Australian sell-through market, by contrast, is booming, growing by 14.9 percent in 2008 following a 22.2 percent increase in 2007. TV DVDs have been fueling growth, although that component of the market appears to be flattening. In 2009, films are expected to be released simultaneously on DVD and video-on-demand, which could cut marginally into DVD sales. The falling economy will also dampen spending. We expect growth to drop to low single digits during the next two years and then improve to midsingle-digit increases as Blu-ray disc sales become more meaningful and provide a boost to the market. Significant Blu-ray manufacturing capacity will launch in Australia in 2009. We expect sell-through spending in Australia to advance at a 4.6 percent compound annual rate from $1.3 billion in 2008 to $1.6 billion in 2013. In India, the home video market is converting to sellthrough from rental, which constituted 100 percent of sales in 2004. By 2013, sell-through will represent 92
percent of the market. Sell-through spending will jump from $43 million in 2008 to $377 million in 2013. The Philippines has launched a new antipiracy campaign entitled Dont Wait Until Its Too Late! which is intended to reduce losses suffered by the Philippine film industry. This program penalizes firsttime offenders of the antipiracy law with imprisonment of one to three years and a fine of P50,000 to P100,000 ($1,122 to $2,244). We project overall sell-through spending in Asia Pacific to decline by 2 percent in 2009 and stabilize in 2010 with an 0.8 percent advance. During the subsequent three years, spending will increase by an estimated 14.4 percent, benefiting from improved economic conditions and the emergence of Blu-ray. Spending will rise from $4.4 billion in 2008 to $5 billion in 2013, a 2.5 percent increase compounded annually.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: GfK Australia, Japan Video Software Association, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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In-store rentals Asia Pacific is the only region where rental spending exceeds sell-through. The reason is that Japans instore rental market is more than twice that of its sellthrough market, and Japan dominates total home video spending in Asia Pacific. At $4.6 billion in 2008, Japan constituted 75 percent of total rental spending in Asia Pacific in 2008. In contrast with Japans sell-through market, the countrys rental market has been expanding during the past three years, including a 3.2 percent advance in 2008. In a weak economy, lower-cost rentals hold up better than higher-priced sell-through. We expect continued growth during the next five years, averaging 2 percent compounded annually to $5.1 billion. Although much smaller, the rental market in South Korea also is much larger than its sell-through market. Piracy has hurt sell-through more than rental because low-cost rentals are less subject to competition from pirated versions that often sell at or above the rental
price. Nevertheless, rental spending in South Korea has been declining because of piracy, and we expect it will continue to decline. In India, the migration to sell-through is leading to sharp declines in rental spending. Rental spending plunged by 41 percent in 2008, and we project an 18.4 percent compound annual decrease through 2013. Australia was the only other country to register a double-digit increase in 2008, with a 12.6 percent advance. TV DVDs have become popular rental items and are driving rental spending. We expect growth in Australia to drop to mid single digits during the next three yearsas this component of the market cools and then to slow to low-single-digit gains in 201213 as online subscriptions and video-on-demand cut into in-store rentals. The rental market for all of Asia Pacific will expand at a 1.5 percent compound annual rate to $6.7 billion in 2013 from $6.2 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Japan Video Software Association, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Online distribution
Online rental subscriptions Video rentals can also be acquired online. Online subscription rental services have been launched in Australia, New Zealand, Japan, India, and Singapore. Subscribers order films online, and the films are then distributed by mail. These services expand the market by reaching people who may not have access to video rental outlets. In Australia, BigPond Movies (Telstra) and Quickflix are the leading services. Although currently small, they are growing rapidly.
In Singapore, several services entered the market in 2008. VideoEzy Singapore dropped its mail delivery service in some areas because it was too slow and began delivering by motorcycle. We expect that the convenience of these services and their reach will propel the market. We project spending to increase from $178 million in 2008 to $1.4 billion in 2013, a 51.9 percent compound annual increase. Japan and Australia dominated the market in 2008 with 97 percent of total spending and will continue to do so through 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Digital downloads Digital download services also are being introduced where films can be downloaded to own or to rent. Digital downloads are available in Australia, Japan, the PRC, and South Korea and are expected in India in 2009. In Australia, Blockbuster and VideoEzy are expected to introduce download services in 2009. Films will be downloadable to mobile phones and then transferred to TV sets for viewing. Apple began offering movie downloads through its iTunes store. Films are available for rental or purchase and can be viewed on iPods, iPhones, PCs, or TV sets. They cannot be burned to DVDs. The market in Australia is currently negligible, but we expect it will expand to $78 million by 2013. In the PRC, Warner is offering films online on a rental basis for less than $1. Films will be available soon after their theatrical release, in part to stem DVD piracy. In India, digital downloads will be available in 2009, but the low broadband penetration will limit spending. We
do not expect a meaningful market in India during the next five years. In Japan, Blu-ray video game consoles allow movies to be downloaded and viewed on TV sets. Downloads to Blu-ray are driving the digital download market, which we expect will expand to $89 million by 2013. South Korea has a high broadband penetration and fast download speedstwo key ingredients for a download market. However, that market is not developing because high piracy rates are crowding out legitimate services. We project the digital download market to grow from only $3 million in 2008 to $179 million in 2013. Total home video The total home video marketincluding physical sellthrough, in-store rentals, online rental subscriptions, and digital downloadswill expand at a projected 4.2 percent compound annual rate. Spending will rise from $10.8 billion in 2008 to $13.3 billion in 2013.
2006 0 NA NA NA 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1
2007 1 NA NA NA 2 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 3
2008p 1 NA NA NA 2 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 3
2009 3 NA NA 4 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 7
2010 7 NA NA 9 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 16
2011 14 1 NA NA 18 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 33
2012 44 3 NA NA 53 NA NA NA NA NA 1 NA NA NA 101
2013 78 10 NA NA 89 NA NA NA NA NA 2 NA NA NA 179
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Latin America
Box office spending will increase from $1.3 billion in 2008 to $1.7 billion in 2013, a 5 percent compound annual growth. Home video sell-through will advance at a 4.4 percent compound annual rate to $862 million in 2013 from $694 million in 2008. Home video rental spending will total $533 million in 2013, a 3.2 percent increase compounded annually. Overall home video will average 4 percent compounded annually from $1.1 billion in 2008 to $1.4 billion in 2013.
Overview
Filmed entertainment spending will rise at a 4.5 percent compound annual rate to $3.1 billion in 2013 from $2.5 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Mexico overtook Brazil in 2008 to become the largest market, at $1.1 billion, up 5 percent from 2007. Strong local films buoyed box office spending and home video rentals, offsetting a sluggish sell-through market.
Brazil declined by 16.7 percent in 2008 to $912 million, the result of a steep decline in rentals. The decrease in Brazil offset gains in each of the other territories, and overall spending in Latin America fell by 4 percent
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in 2008. Although rental spending fell by more than half and a further drop is anticipated for 2009, Brazil remains the largest rental market in Latin America. The rental market will stabilize in 2010, and Brazil will return to an expansion path, growing at a 4.1 percent compound annual rate through 2013. Argentina and Venezuela were the fastest-growing countries in 2008, at 10 percent and 8.2 percent,
respectively, principally because of inflationary box office price growth. Continued price inflation will be the principal driver of spending growth during the next five years. High piracy rates have prevented legitimate digital download and online rental subscription services from getting established.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Box office
Admissions With the exception of Mexico, which posted a 5.1 percent increase in 2008, admissions were relatively flat in each of the other territories. Increases were 0.5 percent or less, and decreases were 1.1 percent or less. Local films again did well in Mexico, leading to the second consecutive increase of more than 5 percent. US films were also popular, and new multiplexes contributed to admissions growth as well in 2008. Mexico has the largest box office market in Latin America, at 183 million, accounting for more than half of all admissions. In Brazil, the Sector Fund, a government program, will support investment in local production, which will shield the market from the impact of the financial meltdown as most local films are financed in large part from government support. The Sector Fund expects to invest $32 million in 2009 in local films.
In Argentina, film subsidies were raised by 40 percent in late 2008 to help producers deal with explosive inflation. Argentine film agency INCAA (Instituto Nacional de Cine y Artes Audiovisuales) will now pay up to 3.5 million pesos ($2.9 million) per film compared with 2.5 million pesos ($2.1 million) in 2008. INCAA also placed more restrictions on exhibitors to support local films. Local films must now be screened for a minimum of two weeks. In addition to shortfalls in production budgets, local films are at a disadvantage with respect to prints. Hollywood films generally provide more than 100 prints in Argentina, giving them wide exposure. Local films, by contrast, generally have only 35 prints, limiting their reach. Industry regulations helped local films increase their share from 9 percent in 2007 to 11.5 percent in 2008. Those gains came at the expense of the market as a whole, as total admissions fell by 1.1 percent. We expect these local initiatives will help sustain admissions. We project admissions to expand at a 1.6 percent compound annual rate to 389 million in 2013 from 359 million in 2008.
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Admissions (millions)
Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela Total 2004 42.0 114.0 11.5 16.0 164.0 19.0 366.5 2005 37.5 93.5 9.9 16.4 162.7 18.9 338.9 2006 37.0 90.3 11.2 20.2 165.5 19.7 343.9 2007 36.0 89.3 10.5 21.0 174.2 19.2 350.2 2008p 35.6 89.6 10.4 21.2 183.0 19.3 359.1 2009 36.0 90.0 10.5 21.4 185.0 19.4 362.3 2010 36.5 91.0 10.7 21.6 187.0 19.5 366.3 2011 37.0 92.0 11.0 22.0 190.0 19.7 371.7 2012 37.5 94.0 11.3 22.5 195.0 20.0 380.3 2013 38.0 96.0 11.6 23.0 200.0 20.3 388.9 200913 CAGR 1.3 1.4 2.2 1.6 1.8 1.0 1.6
Sources: Motion Picture Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Average prices Average admission prices are soaring in Argentina and rising by high single digits in Venezuela, in both cases reflecting high inflation rates. In Colombia, mid-single-digit increases also reflect inflationary gains. Excluding these territories, prices are growing at low-single-digit rates. In Argentina, average prices rose by more than 15 percent in 2007 and by nearly 20 percent in 2008. We look for the economic downturn to moderate inflation, and we project increases averaging 9.2 percent compounded annually through 2013.
Beyond inflation, the introduction of new theaters will continue to support rising prices, but the incremental impact will lessen as the installed base of modern theaters expands. On balance, we project a 3.3 percent compound annual increase in average prices, matching the increase in 2008. By 2013, the average admission ticket will cost $4.38 compared with $3.72 in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Box office spending Argentina paced box office growth in 2008 with an 18.8 percent increase as the 19.8 percent price hike offset the 1.1 percent drop in admissions. Otherwise, the disparity between admissions and box office was less dramatic. We project box office spending to increase from $1.3 billion in 2008 to $1.7 billion in 2013, a 5 percent compound annual increase.
Mexico and Brazil will continue to dominate the market. Together they constituted 77 percent of box office spending in 2008, a share that will dip to 73 percent in 2013. Argentina will continue to be the fastest-growing market, with a projected 10.7 percent compound annual increase, due almost entirely to price growth.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Home video
Sell-through The home video market in Latin America has been hampered by high piracy rates that significantly cut into legitimate spending and historically by low DVD household penetration. During the past two years, DVD penetration doubled. There are now around 30 million DVD households in Brazil and more than 15 million in Mexico. Brazil ranks in the top five in DVD households but is not in the top 10 in spending because of piracy. Home video spending in Brazil was only 19 percent larger than in Mexico in 2008 even though Brazil had twice as many DVD households. The sell-through market in Brazil surged by 20 percent in 2008, the result of a shift in spending from rental to sell-through. Home video spending was buoyed in
2006 by new TVs and DVD players that were purchased for the FIFA World Cup. Those purchases significantly expanded the household base, which in turn drove sell-through spending. During the past three years, sell-through in Brazil rose by a cumulative 60 percent. We expect slower growth during the next two years, reflecting the weak economy, and faster growth during 201113, when economic conditions improve. In Mexico, the economic slowdown cut into sell-through spending in 2008. Growth slowed to 0.7 percent following two years of increases in excess of 8 percent. We expect declines during the next two years, modest growth in 2011, and a return to mid- to high-single-digit growth in 201213. For the region as a whole, we project sell-through spending to expand at a 4.4 percent compound annual rate to $862 million in 2013 from $694 million in 2008.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Rentals The rental market in Brazil plunged by 56 percent in 2008, leading to an overall decline of 34 percent. Excluding Brazil, rentals were up 4.3 percent. In Brazil, the jump in the DVD household base initially led to a surge in rental spending. From 2005 to 2007, rental spending rose by 28 percent. In 2008, the market abruptly shifted from rental to sell-through, and rentals tumbled. We expect a further 14 percent decline in 2009 before an equilibrium between rental and sell-through is reached. Then the rental market will expand at accelerating rates, benefiting from an expanding economy. In Mexico, the rental market has expanded at midsingle-digit rates during the past two years, helped by
the reinstatement of an exclusive rental window for midperforming titles. Exclusive rental windows, when the film is available only for rental during a specified period between theatrical release and sell-through, had been discontinued a number of years ago to stimulate sellthrough. We expect that pattern to generally continue, with a 4.5 percent compound annual increase. Penetration growth in DVD players will benefit the rental market as well as sell-through. We project rental spending to expand by 3.2 percent compounded annually to $533 million in 2013 from $455 million in 2008. The total home video market will increase from $1.1 billion in 2008 to $1.4 billion in 2013, a 4 percent compound annual increase.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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348
Video games
350 Summary 353 North America 364 Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA) 378 Asia Pacific 388 Latin America
Summary
Video games
The video game market consists of consumer spending on console games (including handheld games), personal computer games, online games, and wireless games as well as video game advertising. The category excludes spending on the hardware and accessories used for playing the games. Retail purchases of a game are included in either the PC or console game categories. If those games are then played online for a subscription fee, the subscription fee is counted in the online game category.
Principal drivers
The current generation of consoleswhich includes the Wii, the Xbox 360, and PlayStation 3will drive the market for the next few years. The continued success of the latest handheld devicesthe Nintendo DS (dual screen) and PlayStation Portable (PSP)is also supporting the market. The online market is being driven by the rising penetration of broadband households as well as the current generation of consoles that include online capabilities as a primary focus. Users of the current consoles can compete against each other through the Internet and can also purchase additional games or additional game content such as costumes or game objects from the consoles marketplaces. While the ability to purchase additional games is not new, what is new is the increasingly rich forms of content, graphics, and interaction they provide. We expect that by 2012, the next generation of consoles will have begun to be introduced, which will spur renewed growth in console games. The increasing popularity of massive multiplayer online games (MMOGs)with their subscription fees, in-game advertising, and microtransactionsis also aiding the growth of the market. Casual games are a further important component of the online market, helping expand the demographic base and stimulate spending. Newer mobile phone handsets that are capable of downloading games and that provide larger screens and better graphics will drive demand for wireless games. At the same time, the growth of third-generation (3G) networks, with their faster speeds, will provide an environment that will enable wireless games to approach the quality of console games. Although the market for PC games will continue to deteriorate as consumers turn their attention to newer technologies, the purchase of a PC game is often the requirement for entry into the world of MMOGs. Video game advertising is emerging as an additional revenue stream. The growth of the online game market will fuel growth in dynamic in-game advertising.
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Console/handheld hardware
The introduction of a new generation of consoles drives the console game market in all regions. The Xbox 360 from Microsoft, the Wii from Nintendo, and the PlayStation 3 from Sony all began to be introduced in 2005 and were available in all regions by 2007. Those new consolescombined with the popular handheld devicesdrove the console/handheld game market to a 28.4 percent increase in 2007, followed by an additional 19.4 percent increase in 2008 to $30.4 billion. Growth will slow in 200911 as the cycle of the current generation of consoles matures. We expect the next generation of consoles to begin to be introduced in 2012, which will provide another boost to the market. Japan is the leading market in video game development, with Nintendo and Sony developing many games for their consoles. The United Statesled by Microsoft, Electronic Arts, TakeTwo, and Activision Blizzardalso has a strong game development market, as do the UK, France, and Canada.
PlayStation 3
The PlayStation 3 (PS3) was launched in November 2006 in the United States, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Mexico, and Canada, and in March 2007 in EMEA, Australia, and Singapore, with subsequent launches in the remaining territories later in 2007. As with the Xbox 360, Sony has introduced a number of different PS3 models since the PS3s introduction. The newest, 80-gigabyte and 160 GB models make the PS3 more competitive with the Xbox 360 with respect to price, but they usually contain larger hard drives and Blu-ray disc players. Additionally, Sony provides an online environment where game developers control their own activities. The PS3 has sold about 20 million units worldwide as of the end of 2008.
Nintendo Wii
The Wii, which was launched in November 2006, is being marketed as a game machine, as opposed to the Sony and Microsoft machines, which are being promoted as media centers for home entertainment. Nintendo is trying to expand the universe of game players to include younger children, older adults, and women. The Wii has outsold the Xbox 360 worldwide despite coming to market a year later than its competitor and is the only one of the three consoles that has not lowered its price yet. It is expected that the current cycle of consoles will last longer than previous cycles because demand remains high and none of the manufacturers have even hinted at plans for the next round of consoles. The current games are vastly superior to games produced for the previous generations of consoles and would be hard to improve upon. We would expect Nintendo to be the first to introduce a new version of its console because the Wii is the only one of the three consoles that does not have highdefinition playback.
Handheld devices
Despite the interest in the new generation of consoles, the market for portable game consoles continued to show strength. The Nintendo DS is the leading portable device on a worldwide basis because of its simplicity, which has broadened its appeal beyond hard-core gamers. The DS has two screens, providing players with two views of the action.
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The DS has broadened the market, attracting women and older players with its Touch Generation brand of games, which includes a number of games in the Nintendogs and Brain Training franchises, both of which are exclusive to the Nintendo DS. The other major game in the sophisticated portable market is the Sony PSP (PlayStation Portable), a handheld game device equipped with a 4.3-inch LCD screen that plays music and movies on a new proprietary minidisc called the universal media disc (UMD) that holds 1.8 GB of data. In October 2008, Sony introduced the PSP-3000, the newest version of the handheld device. It looks like the Slim & Lite version released in 2007 but has new features, including an internal microphone and an enhanced display.
The microphone can make calls using Skype without the need for a handset, can communicate with other PSP players, and can be used in such games as the language translation game TalkMan. The PSP with Remote Play lets users watch programs on the PSP by accessing the information wirelessly from the PS3, in which the programs are recorded by PlayTV. It started selling in late 2008 in Europe. Sonys next-generation handheld console, the Nintendo DSi, was introduced in Japan in late 2008 and is expected to be released in EMEA and North America in 2009. The DSi has two cameras, a music player, and applications that enable users to download games. The DSi is also backward compatible, allowing users to play DS games.
Data for the global video game market by region and for the global video game market by component can be found within the Executive Summary on pages 44 and 45.
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North America
Consumer spending on games will expand at a 5.4 percent compound annual rate to $20.1 billion from $15.5 billion in 2008, while advertising will rise from $765 million in 2008 to $1.4 billion, a 13 percent increase compounded annually. Console/handheld games will continue to dominate the market, increasing at a compound annual rate of 5.5 percent to $15.5 billion in 2013 from $11.9 billion in 2008. Online games are expected to increase from $2.0 billion in 2008 to $2.7 billion in 2013, growing by 6.4 percent on a compound annual basis. Wireless games will be the fastest-growing end-user segment, increasing by 8.0 percent on a compound annual basis from $858 million to $1.3 billion in 2013. The PC game market will decrease to $697 million in 2013 from $789 million in 2008, a 2.4 percent compound annual decline.
Overview
The overall video game market is projected to grow by 5.8 percent compounded annually to $21.6 billion in 2013 from $16.2 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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The video game market in the United States is expected to grow from $14.7 billion in 2008 to $19.5 billion in 2013, exhibiting a 5.8 percent compound annual growth rate.
The Canadian video game market will increase by 6.2 percent on a compound annual growth rate, reaching $2 billion in 2013 from $1.5 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Console/handheld market
Following a 33.9 percent rise in 2007, the console game market continued to surge in 2008 with a 27.9 percent increase despite the deteriorating national economy. That pattern reflects the introduction of a new generation of video game consoles. The current cycle began with the introduction of the Microsoft Xbox 360 in November 2005. The other two manufacturers, Sony and Nintendo, introduced their new machines, the Sony PlayStation 3 and the Nintendo Wii, a year later, in November 2006. Games that were developed for the new platforms began to fuel the market in 2006 and provided continued strength in 2007 and 2008.
We expect more-moderate growth until the end of the forecast period, when the next cycle of consoles is expected to debut. Hardware platforms Consoles In September, Microsoft lowered the price of its consoles in the United States, with the Arcade model (without a hard drive) reduced to $199, the 60 GB Pro model reduced to $299, and the 120 GB Elite model reduced to $399. The 20 GB model was discontinued. The Arcade version of the Xbox 360 is the first of the current generation of consoles to break the $200 price barrier. It is now priced $50 below the Wii. Sales of the
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Xbox 360 increased dramatically after the reduction in price. There was a similar price reduction in Canada, with a similar spike in sales of the Xbox 360. More than 5 million Xbox 360 units were sold in North America in 2008, with a cumulative total in North America of over 15 million since introduction. On November 19, 2008, Microsoft introduced the New Xbox Experience for the Xbox Live environment with a new user interface, the ability to install games directly to the console, and a partnership with Netflix in the United States that facilitates the streaming of movies to Xbox Live Gold members. The Xbox Live Marketplace has become the second-largest online video distribution system, surpassed only by Apples iTunes. Sony launched its PlayStation 3 in November 2006, with sales in North America totaling around 4 million in 2008 and a cumulative total of more than 7 million since introduction. The PS3 was originally priced at $499 in the United States for a console with a 20 GB hard drive and $599 for one with a 60 GB hard drive. Since then there have been a number of new models and price reductions, with the current, most popular model, the 80 GB version, selling for $399. In July, Sony introduced its video download store through its PlayStation Network service. The service includes television programs that can be purchased as well as movies that can be either purchased or rented. Additionally, downloaded content can be transferred to the PSP. The Wii was launched on November 19, 2006, a year later than the Xbox 360. By 2008, cumulative sales of the Wii had surpassed those of the Xbox 360. North American sales of the Wii were around 11 million in 2008, taking its total sales since its introduction to around 19 million. The price of the Wii has remained at $249 in the United States, unchanged from its original price. It is the only console that has not lowered its price, because demand remains robust. Console sales showed a dramatic increase in 2008. Sales are still expected to remain strong in 2009 though not at the 2008 level. Sales are expected to decline through 2011 as this cycle of consoles approaches
maturity. We anticipate sales to pick up in 2012 and 2013 because the manufacturers are expected to introduce the next generation of consoles. The number of consoles sold (excluding handheld devices) is expected to decline from 20.9 million units in 2009 to a low of 15 million in 2011 before recovering to 18.3 million in 2013. The United States and Canada are expected to exhibit similar patterns, decreasing from their historical highs in 2008 through 2011 and then recovering at the end of the forecast period. Handheld devices The Nintendo DS was introduced in North America in November 2004, and the redesigned DS Lite was introduced in 2006. Sales totaled around 11 million units in North America in 2008, with cumulative totals of around 30 million. The next-generation Nintendo DSi, already available in Japan, is expected to be introduced in North America in 2009. The other major device in the sophisticated portable market is the Sony PlayStation Portable. PSP owners are able to transfer content from their PS3s that has been downloaded from the PlayStation Store. Sony introduced its newest version, the PSP-3000, in 2008 at a price of $169 in the United States. Sales of the PSP continue to trail those of the DS, with North American sales of more than 4 million in 2008 and a cumulative total of around 15 million since introduction, half of that of the DS. Console/handheld game market The console/handheld game market rose by 28 percent in 2008 following a 34 percent increase in 2007. Rather than following the national economic cycles, the video game industry follows its own cyclethat of the video game consoles. New games introduced for the current generation of consoles fueled growth. Games are developed by the console manufacturers for exclusive use on their consoles. Additionally, thirdparty developers design either (1) games for exclusive use on a particular console or (2) different versions for the different platforms. Console manufacturers prefer exclusive titles in order to spur sales of their consoles. Conversely, popular consoles will drive game developers to produce titles for that console.
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The top four games in terms of sales were all Wii exclusives, the most popular of the current generation of consoles. The top-selling game Wii Play was actually released in February 2007 and sold more than 5 million copies in 2008. The other top-selling Wii games were Mario Kart Wii, Wii Fit, and the fighting game Super Smash Bros. Brawl. The only non-Wii game in the top five games was Grand Theft Auto IV for the Xbox 360, which debuted in April 2008. This was the first in the Grand Theft Auto (GTA) series to be released simultaneously on the Microsoft and Sony platforms. Previous GTA games were released on the Microsoft platform after they were released on the Sony platform. GTA IV: The Lost and Damned was released in February 2009 as a download to the Xbox 360. Together with the PS3 version, the newest game in the popular Grand Theft Auto franchise sold more than 5 million copies in 2008. Casual games constitute a significant portion of the market. Within that segment are a number of music-related titles that have done very well, such as Activision Blizzards Guitar Hero series. Sales for the franchise, which began with the original Guitar Hero game developed for the PlayStation 2 (PS2) in November 2005, have sold more than 23 million units across all platforms worldwide. First-person shooter games are quite popular in North America. Some of the major titles in this genre are Halo 3, Call of Duty 4: World at War, and Gears of War 2. Video games also are being used for training. In the most well-known example, the US military has developed a number of video games to train its troops for combat. The games can put commanders and enlisted personnel in simulated positions that would be very difficult and expensive to re-create in real life. Airplane pilots have been using flight simulators to practice their takeoffs and landings at different airports around the world while sitting at their desks. First responders have been fine-tuning their responses to emergency situations through a number of different video game simulations. Games are being developed for training purposes in the manufacturing, mining, utilities, and health-care industries, where accidents can result in losses of thousands of dollars or death. It is much easier to practice techniques by using a computer simulation in cases where real-life mistakes could be deadly.
With the uncertainty in the global economy, game developers are more likely to rely on proven product. We expect sequels to be used as a safety measure in 2009. The 2009 sequels include Assassins Creed 2, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, Resident Evil 5, BioShock 2: Sea of Dreams, and Killzone 2. Some of the other major titles that are expected to do well in 2009 are Halo 3: ODST and Halo Wars for the Xbox 360, MadWorld and Wii Sports Resort for the Wii, and Heavy Rain for the PS3. Canada is the home of a number of top video game developers. The two top game development studios in Canada are Ubisoft in Montreal, which developed Tom Clancys Splinter Cell: Double Agent and Electronics Arts in Burnaby, British Columbia, which developed FIFA Soccerone of the most popular games in the worldas well as Need for Speed Undercover. Around 20 percent of the top-selling games in North America are developed in Canada. Many provinces in Canada provide tax incentives to encourage development of the video game industry. Many game developers have moved to Canada from the United Kingdom and France to take advantage of Canadian tax benefits. The game industries in Canada and the United States are very similar, with most of the top games popular in each country. One exception is that hockey games are much more popular in Canada than in the United States. With the current generation of consoles now maturing, we expect console game sales growth to slow sharply beginning in 2009 to 5.5 percent, with slower gains of 2 percent in 2010 and 1.3 percent in 2011 as the platforms age. We expect the next generation of consoles to begin to be introduced in 2012, which will create a new cycle and lead to accelerating growth during 201213. For the forecast period as a whole, the console/handheld game market in North America will increase by 5.5 percent on a compound annual rate from $11.9 billion in 2008 to $15.5 billion in 2013. The console/handheld game market in the United States is expected to grow by 5.5 percent on a compound annual basis from $11 billion in 2008 to $14.4 billion in 2013. A similar pattern is expected for the Canadian console/ handheld game market, with revenues increasing 5.1 percent on a compound annual basis from $881 million in 2008 to $1.1 billion in 2013.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Online games
The PC platform was traditionally the only means to play games online and is still the dominant platform. In 2002, both Sony and Microsoft introduced online gaming capabilities using their consoles. Each of the consoles has features to entice online users, including online marketplaces Xbox Live, PlayStation Store, and Nintendo Wii Shop to purchase games and allow competition against other players anywhere via the Internet. The most popular games played online using the Xbox Live system in 2008 were Halo 3, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare, and Grand Theft Auto IV. Castle Crashers was the most downloaded Xbox Live Arcade game in 2008. Wii gamers can play against other players for free, but there are only about 40 games available for online play compared with more than 100 on the PS3 and more than 350 on the Xbox 360. The Wii Shop Channel has many classic games such as Donkey Kong that can be purchased. The Wii, which provides users with a news channel, is the only one of the three platforms that does not have a movie download service. Idol Minds Pain was the most-often-downloaded game on the PlayStation Network, helped by the fact that it was bundled for free with Metal Gear: Solid 4. A number of different business models are used for generating revenues from online gaming. Most of the casual games are played for free, with revenues being generated from advertising on the Web site and included in video game advertising. Most of the massive multiplayer online games require the retail purchase of a game and then a monthly subscription to play it online. A new business model that is
emerging is that of microtransactions, whereby gamers buy in-game accessories to enhance their gaming experience. Microtransactions have been very popular in Asia, where the piracy of PC games has made the retail market almost nonexistent. Instead, games are downloaded for free, with revenues being generated through microtransactions for the purchase of weapons and equipment that improve ones competitive abilities in games or for personalization of avatars. In January 2008, Electronic Arts announced that it would be introducing a new distribution and pricing model for Battlefield Heroes. Instead of selling the game, Electronic Arts is providing it as a free download to PCs. The game will generate revenue through advertising and microtransactions such as colorful clothing and boosts that will increase the speed and agility of the characters. Electronic Arts tried this business model successfully in South Korea with the FIFA game. Advertising will appear on the Web site and at the front end of the game rather than within the game, which takes place in a fictional world, making it an inappropriate destination for advertising. Electronic Arts is hoping to reach users who do not normally buy games. It is likely that more game publishers will move to the microtransaction revenue model to entice more players to the genre without requiring upfront costs. Additionally, players can determine how much they want to spend on their gaming experience. There are a number of online sites such as Yahoo! Games, MSNs Zone, and Electronic Arts Pogo. com that provide some free games, with most of their revenues coming from advertising. These sites reach tens of millions of game players.
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Most MMOGs are about conflicts between warriors, wizards, or aliens. Unlike most video games that have plots and endings, MMOGs are virtual worlds that continue to evolve. Most MMOGs are played on PCs, with additional content being delivered over broadband connections. World of Warcraft (WoW), which was launched in November 2004, is by far the most popular MMOG, attracting more than 11.5 million players worldwide, who pay up to $15 a month to play. The game is now available in eight languages. In November 2008, Blizzard Entertainment, a division of Activision Blizzard, the developer of the game, released an expansion pack called World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King, which adds new locations, character classes, and abilities to the game. This is the second expansion pack for the game following the successful launch of World of Warcraft: The Burning Crusade in 2007. Since top MMOGs are quite lucrative, with a continuing revenue stream, a number of new games are being developed for the format. Some of them are Star Trek Online and DC Universe Online, based on Superman, Batman, and other superheroes. Valve Corporation, creator of the popular HalfLife games, pioneered in 2004 the concept of the downloading of PC games via its online service called Steam, which provides games from different publishers. In December, Electronic Arts joined the Steam network. Unlike other publishers such as Activision, Take-Two, and Atari that have long sold games through Steam, a major online distributor of games, Electronic Arts had been noticeably absent, selling its games on its own Web site and through other Web sites like Direct2Drive. Steam has more than 15 million users worldwide. Although the MMOGs get the most publicity, casual games such as puzzles, cards, and arcade games that do not require extended periods of time to learn and to play have more players. Casual gaming attracts a wider demographic audience, including women and older adults. In fact, the majority of online gamers in the United States are women. By contrast with the MMOGs that generate most of their revenues from subscriptions,
many of the casual games purchased at retail have a free online component. Big Fish Games and PopCap are two of the major companies concentrating on downloading casual games for the PC. The online game market in North America has grown at double-digit annual rates since 2004, including a 14.2 percent gain in 2008. Growth has been driven by the increase in broadband subscribers and the transition to the current generation of consoles. There are more subscription services entering the market, as well as more companies providing digital distribution. With the broadband market now mature, broadband household growth will moderate during the next five years, growing at a 6.9 percent compound annual rate. From 2004 to 2008, by contrast, the number of broadband households in North America increased at a 23.2 percent compound annual rate. The slowdown in broadband household growth will lead to a slowdown in online gaming growth. Additionally, with the current generation of consoles maturing as well, we expect the online game market to slow sharply during the next two years, dropping to a 7.2 percent advance in 2009 and increases averaging 5.1 percent annually during 201011. A new generation of consoles expected in 2012 will lead to the introduction of new online games, which will boost the market. We expect the growth to pick up during 2012 13 to 7.3 percent annually, although we do not expect a return to double-digit gains, because broadband household growth is slowing. For the five-year forecast period, the online game market will grow from $2.0 billion in 2008 to $2.7 billion, increasing at a 6.4 percent compound annual rate. The online game market in the United States is expected to increase from $1.6 billion in 2008 to $2.2 billion in 2013, while the Canadian online game market will increase at a slightly faster rate, growing at a 7.3 percent annual rate to $491 million in 2013 from $345 million in 2008.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Wireless games
The wireless game market began in 2002 when wireless carriers started selling phones capable of downloading additional games. Until then, consumers played such games as Snake and Tetris that were embedded in the phones but could not download additional games. Those games did not generate a separate spending stream. Almost all of the new wireless phones are now Internet enabled, thereby enhancing the potential for downloading games. The increasing sophistication of the new handsets will make for a more enjoyable gaming experience. As individuals upgrade their existing handsets for newer models, the number of game-capable handsets will increase dramatically. Most of the mobile games are simple and similar to games developed for consoles 10 to 15 years ago, because the graphics capabilities of the handsets are limited. As a result, the most popular mobile games are single-player board games, word games, and puzzles. Additionally, the average amount of time spent playing is less than 30 minutes, requiring games to be much simpler than console games that can take hours to complete. A significant portion of wireless players are simply looking for something to do while waiting and thus prefer the simpler games, as opposed to the more advanced types of games that are more immersive. The casual games also help widen the demographics of the wireless game players. In fact, more than half of wireless gamers are women who enjoy playing casual games such as Tetris and Bejeweled, the two mostoften-downloaded wireless games in 2008. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a small but growing segment of the market that is interested in advanced 3-D and multiplayer games. Such games will
become more prevalent as the number of technically advanced handsets proliferates. The new handsets have bigger screens, faster processors, 3-D graphics, advanced sound capabilities, and more storage for memory-intensive games. A number of different business models are currently being used to generate revenues in the wireless game market. The most common method is the downloading of a game wirelessly from the operators Web site and paying a onetime fee of around $5 to $12. Alternatively, games can be downloaded to a PC and then side loaded to the wireless device. A growing number of players subscribe to a particular game and pay around $2 to $6 a month to continue playing the game. As new platforms with more-user-friendly interfaces emerge, we would expect more people to download games. A number of these provide appealing alternatives to the operator decks as well as access to game developers to sell their games directly to consumers without having to go through operator decks. There are other new platforms, including Androids Marketplace and Nokias N-Gage. Gameloft and Glu Mobile, two of the major mobile game publishers, are launching games for all three of the new platforms. EA Mobile, another major mobile game developer, is waiting to deliver games for the Android platform until a billing system is established. Until then, the Android is supplying free content. Apples iPhone and the iPod Touch are major new additions to the wireless gaming market. Video games are available on Apples App Store and can be downloaded directly to the iPhone and iPod Touch. Many games are being developed to take advantage of the touch screen. EAs release of Spore Origins, an
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iPhone version of the very popular PC game, became an instant hit for the iPhone. A relatively new approach is the free advertiser-supported game. Greystripe, the pioneer in the free, ad-supported wireless game market, is still the leading distributor. Greystripe now enables advertisers to sponsor an entire game, thereby providing maximum exposure and keeping other advertisers away. Greystripe also introduced a means for players to click to advertisers mobile Web sites. A new company called Swoopin.org entered the market in October 2008 with more than 800 games. Glu Mobile entered the ad-supported market by making its Space Monkey game available to iPhone users for free. Glu shows its ads when a level is completed. A number of new distribution models are emerging. Digital Chocolate, a Silicon Valley start-up, is using Facebook and other online communities to distribute community-based games. Greystripe signed a deal with NBC Universal to distribute more than 850 free games through NBCs Web sites. A small but growing number of wireless games provide additional game content that can be downloaded to mobile phones to facilitate competitive play. Sims 2 and World Poker Tour: Texas Hold Em are among the most popular games that use wireless network elements. Many games have leader boards to match scores with other players. A new development is the concept of motion-sensing games that turn wireless handsets into game controllers similar to the Wii controller. The games use phone cameras to detect movement, giving games a more real feel.
North America is behind EMEA and Asia Pacific in the wireless market because of slower adoption of 3G technology, which provides wireless high-speed Internet access. The growth of 3G networks combined with the increasing number of game-friendly handsets that offer bigger screens and 3-D graphics will help drive the market. Although the number of people playing games on their phones is growing, the percentage who are paying to download games is still quite smallin the mid-singledigit range. Most people are still playing embedded games or ad-supported games. Carriers are beginning to reduce the number of embedded games and are advertising the availability of games on their decks to increase the number of people downloading games. The newer, more advanced phones are providing a more pleasant gaming experience. The wireless game market in North America rose by 18.7 percent in 2008. We expect growth to drop to single digits beginning in 2009, reflecting approaching saturation in the wireless telephone market, and slower handset sales, reflecting the economic recession. During the next five years, the market will expand at an 8 percent compound annual rate from $858 million in 2008 to $1.3 billion in 2013. The wireless game market in the United States is expected to grow by 8.0 percent on a compound annual basis, reaching $1.1 billion in 2013, up from $775 million in 2008, while the Canadian market will increase from $83 million in 2008 to $121 million in 2013, a 7.8 percent compound annual growth rate.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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PC games
With the exception of 2006, the retail market for PC games has been in decline for a number of years as the rise of the consoles has shifted the market away from the PC. It must be noted that this section deals only with the retail sales of PC games and does not include digital distribution of PC games, subscriptions to online games, or microtransactions that take place in online games. Those revenue streams are growing in importance and are included in the online game category. One of the factors aiding the PC market is the growth of MMOGs, wherein consumers buy the packaged game and then play it online. Players typically pay to buy the initial copy of the game and then pay a monthly subscription fee to play online. World of Warcraft as well as its expansion packs World of Warcraft: Burning Crusade and World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King were among the best-selling PC games in 2008. In fact, World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King, which sold 2.8 million copies in its first 24 hours and 4 million in its first month, surpassing the previous records held by the previous expansion pack, went on to become the top-selling PC game of the year. Two new MMOGs introduced in 2008Age of Conan and Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoningwere both among the top-five-selling PC games in 2008. In addition to the World of Warcraft, the other major franchise that continues to aid PC game sales are the various Sims games, including The Sims 2 FreeTime, The Sims 2 Apartment Life, and numerous other Sims games. Electronic Arts is developing Sims 3 for release in 2009. MMOGs are more suitable for the PC platform because they have complex commands that are easier to accomplish with a keyboard and mouse than with a game console controller. Additionally, MMOGs store many megabytes of data on a computers hard drive. Depending on the size of a consoles hard drive, it may not be feasible to download the required data with game consoles. Some new PC games to look forward to in 2009 are The Sims 3, StarCraft II, BioShock 2: Sea of Dreams, Batman: Arkham Asylum, and Resident Evil 5, some of which will be available on multiple platforms.
Microsoft has been one of the major supporters of PC gaming by establishing Windows System Performance Ratings, which measures a computers power. Microsoft is also trying to improve the gaming environment by branding popular PC games as Games for Windows, thereby guaranteeing their quality, adherence to ratings standards, and ease of installation, as well as identifying which computers they will work on based on their ratings. Microsofts Windows Vista operating system provides several enhancements for gaming, including Windows Vista Game Explorer, parental controls, DirectX 10 graphics technology, and compatibility with Xbox 360 controllers. The explorer puts all game icons in a single area. Parental controls can be established for each child based on the games rating or genre. The new graphics technology enables game developers to provide increased realism in their games. Gamers can now use their Xbox 360 controllers on PCs. The long-term retail market for PC games will continue to deteriorate as console games attract more attention from gamers and developers. The increased digital distribution of PC games, which are included in online games, will also have a negative effect on the retail sales of PC games. While they have a smaller base, there will continue to be a market for PC games because they are cheaper to produce, resulting in a lower average price compared with console games. Additionally, they will be popular with players who buy sophisticated gaming computers that can outperform even the newest consoles. Last, they will continue to be the portals to the world of MMOGs. Some people will continue to purchase PC games at retail rather than downloading them, because of their portability, enabling them to take a game to a friends house to play. We expect the number of games sold to show modest decreases throughout the forecast period. North American spending on PC games will decline from $789 million in 2008 to $697 million in 2013, decreasing at a compound annual rate of 2.4 percent. The US PC game market will decline by 2.5 percent annually from $708 million in 2008 to $625 million in 2013, while the Canadian market will decline from $81 million to $72 million, a 2.3 percent compound annual rate.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Advertising
As the number of video game players continues to increase, advertisers are turning to games as a means of reaching specific demographic groups that are becoming more elusive. The prime target are males aged 18 to 34 years who are spending less time watching television and more time playing games. Game publishers have been inserting ads into games almost from the time that games were first developed. The initial ads were in static form such as billboards that appeared in the background of sporting events. In-game advertising also includes product placements such as a character drinking a brand of soda or driving an identifiable automobile. These static ads had to be inserted when the games were developed, and they could not be changed, requiring months of planning. Sports games and games set in contemporary times benefit from ads because they give them a more realistic feeling. It would be hard to imagine a baseball outfield without advertising on the walls. Ads would not be appropriate in games set in historical times or fantasy worlds. For example, Halo 3 contains no advertising, while Guitar Hero III is packed with advertising. For games that are not appropriate for in-game advertising, players are rewarded for watching ads before the games begin, with extra levels and aftermarket add-ons. Advergaming is the practice of using a video game to promote a product. Such games are often played for free on corporate Web sites. Nissan took a novel approach in promoting its 2009 model 370Z by unveiling the new sports car in a video game before public introduction of the car. A virtual version of the 370Z appeared in Electronic Arts Need for Speed Undercover racing game
before it was officially unveiled at the Los Angeles auto show. The most famous example of advergaming was produced by Burger King in 2006, when it featured the companys mascot, the King, in several games, including Burger Kings Sneak King. The games were sold at Burger King restaurants for $3.99 with the purchase of a value meal and sold about 4 million copies. With the advent of online gaming, a more advanced type of advertising became possible. Advertisers can now place ads that can be changed dynamically through the Internet. For example, a billboard promoting a movie can be updated as new films get released. In this way, the advertising will always be fresh. Additionally, advertising can be geographically targeted, with specific messages hitting different areas. Ads can also be programmed to be delivered at specific times of the day. Since online games are attached to the Internet, its also possible to track the number of times a gamer is exposed to the ads and the amount of time that the ads appear on the screen. Massive Inc., owned by Microsoft, has deals with Electronic Arts, THQ, and Activision to insert ads in a number of their games. Any advertiser that wants to place ads in Xbox 360 games must work through Massive Inc. Microsoft has been placing ads in its Xbox 360 games for several years, while Sony began permitting in-game advertising in the middle of 2008. Nintendo still does not permit in-game advertising in any of its games. Sony is taking a different approach to its in-game advertising by opening up its platform to allow independent ad companies to broker deals with third-party game publishers. IGA Worldwide and Double Fusion, two companies that also developed
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the technology to insert dynamic ads in games, have partnered with Sony to place dynamic ads in PS3 games. IGA signed exclusive deals with Activision and Electronic Arts to deliver in-game ads for the PS3. In 2007, Google, the leader in Internet advertising, acquired Adscape Media, another company that developed a method to insert advertising in games. In October 2008, Google announce the launch of Google AdSense for Games to insert advertising in games. Googles initial advertisers include eSurance, Sprint, and Sony Pictures Entertainment. Currently, the ads are being placed in casual Web games, while Google will later expand to PC and console games. Dynamic in-game advertising is the fastest-growing segment of the market, as it provides timeliness and flexibility for the advertiser. Measurement of ads in video games is undertaken both by Massive and by Nielsen Metrics. In September 2007, Double Fusion introduced a new technology called fusion runtime that allows advertisers to insert ads in games even after the game is finished. Even with dynamic advertising, which allows ads to be changed dynamically through the Internet, the location of the ads could not be changed after the development of the game. With the new technology, ads can be inserted after game development is complete, thereby enabling advertising to be inserted in older, back-catalog games and adding a potential source of income. French game publisher Ubisoft Entertainment and Korean online game publisher NCsoft are among the first to incorporate the new technology in their games.
A new trend is the emergence of advertising for casual games. Unlike the in-game advertising used in action games, this type of advertising usually takes the form of a preroll, where an ad appears for several seconds before game action begins. In this way, casual games on PCs and wireless devices can be offered for free. Game publishers are actively pursuing advertising as an additional stream of revenues. Dynamic in-game advertising also provides a continuing source of revenue compared with the onetime purchase of the game. Currently, display ads, advergames, and advertising on Web-based game portals are the major advertising segments. Dynamic in-game advertising is only a small part of the advertising mix, though it is expected to constitute a more important segment of the market by replacing static ads as the more-important method of in-game advertising. Video game advertising is still only a small segment of the video game market, with North American revenues estimated at around $765 million in 2008. We expect that market to expand, fueled by growth in dynamic advertising as online gaming expands. By 2013, video game advertising will total $1.4 billion, growing by 13 percent at a compound annual rate. The United States is the major market in the world for video game advertising, with revenues of $650 million in 2008, growing to $1.2 billion in 2013. The Canadian market, being closely associated with that of the United States, is a relatively strong market for advertising, with revenues of $115 million in 2008, growing to $220 million in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Consumer spending on video games will grow by 6.6 percent on a compound annual basis from $17.7 billion in 2008 to $24.5 billion in 2013. Video game advertising is expected to grow by 14.9 percent on a compound annual basis from $400 million in 2008 to $800 million in 2013. Console/handheld games will continue to be the largest segment of the market, increasing by 6.2 percent compounded annually from $10.7 billion in 2008 to $14.5 billion in 2013. Online gamesdriven by both casual games and MMOGswill increase by 11.8 percent compounded annually to $4.1 billion in 2013 from $2.4 billion in 2008. Wireless games will increase to $3.4 billion by 2013, up from $2.1 billion in 2008, a 10.5 percent compound annual increase. PC game sales will dip from $2.6 billion to $2.4 billion, a 1.1 percent compound annual decrease.
Overview
The overall video game market is anticipated to increase from $18.1 billion in 2008 to $25.3 billion in 2013, growing at a compound annual rate of 6.9 percent.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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At $4.7 billion in 2008, the United Kingdom has the largest video game market in EMEA and the third largest in the world, behind the United States and Japan. The United Kingdom is an important game developing center, with such major games as Grand Theft Auto IV. The industry is concerned that other countries, especially France and Canada, will lure game developers away by providing tax incentives and has asked the government for similar incentives. The UK game market grew by 20.8 percent in 2008 and is expected to maintain its dominance in EMEA, growing by 7.5 percent on a compound annual basis, reaching $6.8 billion in 2013. France is the second-largest video game market in EMEA, at $3.8 billion in 2008, and is home to Vivendi Universal Games (recently merged with Activision Blizzard), Ubisoft Entertainment, and Infogrames Entertainment (owner of Atari)3 of the top 10 video game developers in the world. Overall, France has more than 100 video game companies. France and the United Kingdom together have produced more video games than the rest of Europe combined. In February 2007, the French Parliament passed a bill for a 20 percent tax credit for video game production costs for games that have cultural value. The video game market in France is expected to grow by 6.8 percent on a compound annual basis to $5.3 billion in 2013.
Germany has the third-largest video game market in EMEA, at $2.8 billion in 2008. In contrast with other countries, Germanys PC game market is relatively strong compared with the countrys console market. Console game spending is limited by the relatively low penetration of console hardware. Germany has strict laws regarding violence in video games. In fact, Germany has its own board called the USK that reviews and rates games; most of the other European countries follow the Pan-European PEGI ratings system. The German market will expand to $3.7 billion in 2013, a 5.8 percent compound annual increase. Spain has the fourth-largest video game market in EMEA, at $1.7 billion in 2008. Vodafone Spain is launching a new system to insert ads in video games so that users who accept downloads with inserted ads will pay a lower price. By 2013, the Spanish video game market will total $2.3 billion, a 6.9 percent compound annual increase. Italy is also a significant video game market, ranking fifth among the countries in the region, with 2008 revenues of $1.4 billion in 2008. Italy has a number of small companies developing games; many of the companies are subsidiaries of larger, foreign companies. The games developed locally are often football (soccer) related. Italian spending on video games is expected to increase to $1.9 billion in 2013, growing at a 7 percent compound annual rate.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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of Blu-ray as the single high-definition home video standard could help the PS3, whose sales rose sharply at the end of 2008. Handheld devices As the console manufacturers were developing their next-generation machines, they introduced new handheld devices to buoy the market. Nintendos DS was the most popular hardware format across Europe in 2008, outselling its competition by two to one since its debut in March 2005. The DS has two screens, which provide different views of the games. The DS features a touch-sensitive screen and enables players to draw pictures and send them to friends. The DS is the leading platform of this generation of game machines across the region. Dr. Kawashimas Brain Training series of games helps drive sales of the DS. More generally, the DS found new gamers: women and older people who appreciated its diversity and new game experience. Sony introduced its PlayStation Portable device in Europe on September 1, 2005. The PSP is a game player combined with a portable music and movie player. It uses a proprietary optical rewritable universal media disc. Sony is hoping to attract an older audience and to appeal to those who have not been game players.
Console/handheld games
The EMEA console/handheld game market rose by 29.9 percent in 2007 and by an additional 22.6 percent in 2008 to $10.7 billion, reflecting the impact of the new generation of consoles on game sales. Revenue growth will drop to mid- to low-single-digit gains during the next three years as the console cycle matures. We expect the growth rate to increase in 2012 and 2013 as we anticipate next-generation devices to be introduced. Revenues will grow to $14.5 billion in 2013, a 6.2 percent increase on a compound annual basis from 2008. As would be expected, football (soccer) games are the most popular of the sports genre throughout the region, with Pro Evolution Soccer 2009 and FIFA 2009 the most popular titles. Other popular games throughout the region are Dr. Kawashimas Brain Training, Wii Play, and Super Mario Brothers.
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Grand Theft Auto IV, which previously was released on the Microsoft platform after its PlayStation platform release, was released simultaneously on the Xbox 360 in 2008 with exclusive content that can be downloaded from the Xbox Live. GTA IV broke the record for sales in its first week in the UK, selling 926,000 units across all platforms and thereby surpassing the previous record holder GTA San Andreas, which sold 677,000 units in two days in 2004 for the PS2. The UK is the biggest market in the region, with revenues totaling $2.9 billion in 2008. Games for the Wii and the DS dominated the market, accounting for almost half of all games sold, with Mario Kart Wii and Wii Fit the two top-selling games in the UK in 2008 and Dr. Kawashimas Brain Training the top-selling game for the DS. FIFA 2009 was the top-selling game across all platforms, with sales totaling more than 2 million units. Console/handheld game revenues are expected to show modest growth through 2011, with the price of the games declining as is common in the latter stage of the console cycle, with a pickup during 201213 as the next cycle begins. Revenues are expected to reach $3.9 billion in 2013, a 6.3 percent compound annual growth rate from 2008.
France is the second major market in the region, with revenues of $2.4 billion in 2008, and is expected to increase to $3.3 billion in 2013, or by 6.1 percent compounded annually. Mario Kart Wii, Wii Fit, and Wii Play were the top three sellers in 2008. Germany is the third-largest market, with revenues of $1.7 billion. Germany has a strict ratings system that limits sales of violent games and that holds down the console market. In June 2008, the Federal Assembly passed a law that requires age certificates to be prominently featured on video games and movies. Retailers will not be permitted to sell video games to those younger than the age restriction. The legislation also effectively bans games that depict realistic scenes of violence and death. The market is expected to grow to $2.3 billion in 2013, a 6.2 percent compound annual increase from 2008.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Online games
The online game market is composed of several segments. Massive multiplayer online games are usually role-playing games that take place in fantasy or medieval worlds and can be played over long periods of time. After purchasing copies of the game at retail stores, players pay a monthly fee to participate and often make additional purchases to buy online equipment and accessories. Currently, these games are primarily played on PCs. World of Warcraft is the leading MMOG in EMEA. Another segment of the online market consists of the casual gamers who go to a Web site and play strategy or puzzle games, often at no charge, with advertising supplying the requisite revenues. There are a number of popular sites such as Yahoo! Games that attract millions of casual players daily. An online console game market is emerging with the new generation of consoles, each of which places the online experience at the forefront. The three manufacturers have each established an online environment where consumers can buy additional content and interact with other players through online chat sessions and direct competition. Many games have online leader boards that enable players to compare scores around the world. Microsofts Xbox Live enables players to take advantage of a centralized environment. Sony has taken a different approach with its online environment, establishing an open market where game developers control their own activities. Nintendo, which enables the downloading of its classic games in its online environment, is still working on further functionality of the system. Nintendo provides a number of online channels that can be accessed via the Wii. The menu ranges from contests, news, and informal polls to weather, shopping, message boards, and other applications.
A growing segment of the market is the digital distribution of games, which enables players to get new games without leaving their homes. Steam is the major online distributor of games. Through microtransactions, digital distribution also enables players to purchase additional equipment that enhances the gaming experience. Such microtransactions are proving to be a significant revenue stream for some games. In fact, some game developers are providing online distribution of their games for free to encourage participation and then recouping the revenues through microtransactions. In December 2008, Electronic Arts made available for digital distribution through the Steam system in EMEA several of its PC titles, including Spore, EA Sports, and FIFA Manager 2009. The increased penetration of broadband households is a major driver of online games because the faster speeds make for a more enjoyable experience. The number of broadband subscribers in EMEA surpassed the 100-million figure in 2007 and is expected to exceed 220 million by 2013, providing a strong impetus for the online market. Online game revenues rose by 30.6 percent in 2008 to $2.4 billion. We expect online games during the next five years to increase by 11.8 percent compounded annually to $4.1 billion in 2013. The UK is the leading online game market in the region, with revenues of $665 million in 2008, increasing by a compound annual rate of 11.6 percent to $1.2 billion in 2013. France is second, with revenues of $419 million, growing by 11.8 percent annually to reach $733 million in 2013. The Netherlands had the third-largest online market, owing to its high broadband penetration, with revenues of $288 million in 2008, surpassing its larger neighbor Germany, which had online game revenues of $219 million. The Netherlands is expected to maintain its lead over Germany through the forecast period, with revenues reaching $500 million in 2013 compared with $375 million for Germany.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Wireless games
EMEA has a large wireless telephone subscriber base, and high-speed wireless data technology is also advanced in much of the region. Western Europe is at the forefront in the deployment of 3G technology, which provides wireless high-speed Internet access comparable to the high-speed access provided by wired digital subscriber lines. Wireless carriers in a number of countries are upgrading their wireless networks to High-Speed Downlink Packet Access, which provides substantially faster download speeds than conventional 3G networks do. MMOGs are being developed for the wireless market to take advantage of the speed of the advanced wireless networks. Although more-advanced games are being developed for wireless, casual games still dominate the market. Tetris continues to be the most popular game in many of the countries. Games are being developed to take advantage of the unique benefits of cell phones, such as location awareness and social interaction. Initially, the only games people could play were those embedded in their phones. More recently, with the introduction of Internet-connected phones, it became possible to download additional games for a fee. New platforms such as the iPod Touch, which enables users to download games from Apples App Store, could also propel the market. Other revenue streams have emerged, including subscription fees to continue playing the games, microtransactions to enhance the gaming experience, and advertising-funded games. Games provided for free in return for watching ads have the potential to expand the market by introducing more people to the concept of downloading games. Those people could then be converted to purchasers of games in the future. Wireless games in Europe are distributed by carriers like Orange and Vodafone and by off-deck (game lists from multiple developers) third-party stores such as Jamba, Jamster, and Gameloft. Bango, a company based in both the UK and the US, has developed an infrastructure that enables content providers to market their products directly to mobile phone users by using the mobile Internet. Capcom and Codemasters are two UK game developers that have used the Bango infrastructure to sell their mobile games directly to consumers.
There is a lot of potential growth for the wireless game segment as relatively few people pay to download games. Instead, the vast majority of people play the games that are embedded in the phones. We project wireless game revenues to expand at a 10.5 percent compound annual rate to $3.4 billion by 2013 from $2.1 billion in 2008. In the UK, a higher percentage of people download games to their phones than do people in many other countries, including the United States and France. But the vast majority of players in the UK still use games that are embedded in their phones. In December 2008, T-Mobile announced it has become the first UK carrier to provide free games for mobile phones, supported by advertising. The company started with Poker Million II and is adding new games each week. In order to play the games, customers must watch two ads before the game and two after. Consumers must be subscribers to T- Mobiles webnwalk unlimited Internet service in order for there to be no charge to download the games. Previously, the data charges associated with the downloading of the games have been deterrents against the downloading of games in many markets. Wireless game revenues in the UK were $680 million in 2008 and are expected to grow by 10.4 percent compounded annually to $1.1 billion. France, with two of the top mobile game publishers, Gameloft and Zenops, was the second-largest market in the region, with revenues totaling $431 millionmore than the next two largest markets combined. Revenues are expected to increase by 10.4 percent annually to $706 million. Wireless game revenues in Spain were $208 million in 2008 and are expected to grow 10.3 percent annually to reach $339 million by 2013. The major platform for mobile games in Germany is Vodafone, with a third of the market followed by T-Mobile with 10 percent and O2 with 10 percent. Wireless revenues in Germany were $173 million in 2008 and will grow to $299 million in 2013, increasing at an 11.6 percent compound annual rate.
372
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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PC games
PC game revenues reflect the retail sales of packaged PC games and do not reflect online distribution of games or subscription fees to play PC games online, both of which are covered in online games. Revenues for PC games declined in 2008 by 3.3 percent to $2.6 billion, reflecting the strong growth of console games. As the growth of console games begins to wane because of the stage in the cycle, we expect the declines in PC games to moderate. PC game sales are expected to stagnate throughout the forecast period, declining to $2.4 billion in 2013. Partially offsetting the movement to the console games is the growth in the popularity of MMOGs, many of which are PC game titles. The most popular PC games in 2008 were World of Warcraft (WoW) and WoW: Wrath of the Lich King, the second expansion pack of the original WoW, which became the fastest-selling PC game of all time. Spore, a new simulation game developed by Will Wright, creator of the Sims franchise, was very popular in 2008. With Spore, players grow creatures in a Petri dish and let them evolve to become giant monsters that take over the universe. Players can also share their creations with others online. Microsoft is trying to improve the gaming environment by branding popular PC games as Games for Windows, guaranteeing their quality and adherence to ratings standards.
PC games serve as the portal to many MMOGs. In order to play games like WoW, gamers must first buy a retail copy of the game. Additionally, many casual players who do not want to spend the money to buy a console can still play games on a PC. At the other end of the spectrum, to hard-core gamers, the PC represents a better platform to play complicated games, because the mouse and keyboard provide a better interface for complex commands than do console controllers. Germany has the largest PC market in EMEA, at $632 million in 2008. The strength of the German PC game market is attributable to the relative weakness of the console game market. Nevertheless, the console market is expanding in Germany, and the PC market has declined during the past two years. We expect that trend to continue and project spending to fall to $599 million by 2013, down 1.1 percent compounded annually from 2008. France is expected to maintain its position as the second-leading market, with revenues decreasing to $437 million in 2013, a modest 0.7 percent decrease on an annual basis. The UK saw the number of PC games sold decrease significantly in 2008. The PC game market, which declined by 4.8 percent in 2008 to $376 million, is expected to decline further to $344 million by 2013, a 1.8 percent annual decline.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Advertising
Initially, video game advertising took the form of static ads that were hard coded into the games. For example, an advertiser could put an ad for its product as a banner in a race track to give the game a more realistic feel. The ads had a few shortcomings: they had to be planned well in advance during the development of the game. Once inserted, they could not be changed, and the advertiser had no measure of how often the ads were seen. With the advent of the Internet and online gaming, it became possible to insert ads in games and have them updated dynamically as the situation warrants. For example, a billboard advertising a movie could be updated every few weeks when new titles hit the box office. Similarly, different ads can be displayed for different regions such as an English version for the UK and a French version for France. A number of companiesincluding Massive, which was acquired by Microsoft; IGA International; and Double Fusionhave all developed the technology to dynamically place ads in video games. The placement of the ads takes place while the games are being developed, but the actual ads can be changed via the Internet. Double Fusion has taken the process one step further by enabling an ad to be placed in a game after it has been completed. This opens up a new revenue stream for old games that are still popular. Advertisers who can get their products to be an integral part of a game reap additional benefits. For example, a character in the game may drive a certain type of car, drink a certain brand of soda, or talk on a certain type of phone.
In-game advertising is appropriate only in sports games or other games that are set in the real world; ads would not be appropriate in games set in medieval or fantasy worlds. In those cases, advertisers can reward players with extra levels of play or with additional content by viewing ads before a game begins. In addition to in-game or pregame advertising, marketers are developing advergames, or games used to promote a specific brand. They can also put advertising on Web sites that gamers frequent. And they can sponsor gaming tournaments. Currently, display ads and advergames are the most prevalent. We expect in-game advertising and, more specifically, dynamic in-game advertising to gain in importance over time as more games are played online. Growth in online gaming will expand the potential market for dynamic in-game advertising and will drive overall spending. We project video game advertising revenues to double during the next five years to $800 million in 2013, a 14.9 percent compound annual increase from $400 million in 2008. The UK accounts for more than a quarter of the EMEA market, with revenues of $109 million in 2008, followed by France with $77 million and Germany with $62 million.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Asia Pacific
End-user spending on video games will total $24.4 billion in 2013, growing by 9.4 percent on a compound annual basis from $15.6 billion in 2008. Advertising revenues will increase from $185 million to $365 million in 2013, growing by 14.6 percent compounded annually. Console/handheld games will grow to $8.7 billion in 2013, increasing by 4.3 percent on a compound annual basis from $7.0 billion in 2008. Online games, which became the second-largest category in 2004, passing PC games, will increase by 11.6 percent compounded annually, reaching $6.7 billion in 2013 as compared with $3.9 billion in 2008. Wireless games will surpass online games in 2009 to become the second-largest category. Spending will grow at a 16.7 percent compound annual rate to $8.2 billion in 2013 from $3.8 billion in 2008. Together online and wireless games will constitute 60 percent of the market in 2013 compared with 49 percent in 2008. PC games will fall by 1.4 percent compounded annually to $810 million in 2013 from $870 million in 2008.
Overview
The video game market will expand from $15.7 billion in 2008 to $24.7 billion in 2013, increasing at a 9.4 percent compound annual rate.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Japan, at $6.4 billion, is the second-largest video game market in the world, after the United States. It is home to two of the three major console manufacturersSony and Nintendomaking the console/handheld game segment more important than it is in other countries in the region. After achieving record growth of 19.3 percent in 2007, the Japanese video game market slowed to 3.1 percent growth in 2008 due to a lack of the new console launches that had stimulated the market in the previous year. Console games fell by 8 percent in 2008, and a further 7 percent decrease is expected in 2009. Growth in other segments will offset that decline, and the next generation of consoles will revitalize the market during 201213. The Japanese video game market is expected to grow to $9.2 billion in 2013, a 7.4 percent compound annual increase. South Koreas high broadband penetration supports its online game market. In particular, massive multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs), which represent a role-playing subset of massive multiplayer online games, are very popular at Internet cafs (PC bangs). The new consoles are carving a niche in South Korea, and there is a growing wireless game market. The market for PC games is relatively small because of piracy as well as the fact that most online games can be downloaded for free. The South Korean game industry is expected to grow from $4.3 billion in 2008 to $7.1 billion in 2013, a 10.6 percent gain compounded annually. Retail packaged games represent a very small portion of the market in the PRC because of piracy. Since the government is very strict about the importation of
foreign games, pirates often sell copies of new games before the legitimate copies reach the market. As a result, online gaming is the dominant segment of the legitimate market, surpassing console, PC, and wireless gaming combined. Online games in the PRC are stored on servers and often require subscription fees in order to be played, thereby eliminating the threat of piracy. Gamers pay to play on an hourly or monthly basis, frequently using prepaid cards for payment. Most PRC gamers play in Internet cafs. MMORPGs represent the dominant form of online games in the PRCgenerating around three-quarters of the revenuesthough casual games are expected to become more important as the number of game players increases. Many online games may be downloaded for free, with revenues generated through microtransactions for additional game elements. The PRC government is promoting local games that it views as healthy for the population while enforcing regulations that prevent the importation of games it regards as inappropriate for its citizens. The government is allowing fewer foreign games into the country. As a result, domestic developers now control about two-thirds of the domestic market, whereas as recently as 2004, foreign titles accounted for 70 percent of the market. South Korea has been the major foreign supplier of games. NetEase.com and Shanda Interactive Entertainment are two of the major domestic companies, with Fantasy Westward Journey and Zhengtu Online being the most popular games. The culture of social gaming at Internet cafs and the
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paucity of alternative sources of low-cost entertainment will continue to grow the market. The PRC market is expected to increase by 12.6 percent on a compound annual basis from $1.8 billion in 2008 to $3.3 billion in 2013. Around 88 percent of Australian households have a device for playing interactive games, and almost 70 percent of Australians play video or computer games regularly. The Australian game industry is expected to increase from $1.1 billion in 2008 to $1.6 billion in 2013, an 8.1 percent gain compounded annually. Taiwan is an emerging video game market, with $510 million in revenues in 2008. Market revenues are expected to increase to $802 million in 2013, growing at 9.5 percent annually. The market has grown steadily in recent years, thanks in large part to the Taiwanese governments investment promotion efforts and financial aid, as the digital game industry has been officially designated as one of the emerging strategic
industries in Taiwan. The goal is to transform Taiwan into one of the major centers in the Asia Pacific market for digital game design, development, and operation. MMORPGs continue to represent the largest segment of the online market, but casual games are growing at a faster pace due to the popularity of the content and its appeal to a wider audience. The introduction of free-to-play games in 2004 has helped revitalize Taiwans online game industry, as gamers typically end up spending more under a free-to-play modelby purchasing virtual items or value-added services to enhance game playcompared with the traditional subscription model. Wireless games will be an important segment of the gaming market in the remaining countries in the Asia Pacific region because mobile phones may be the only gaming device available to many residents. Low broadband penetration in many of the countries will stifle the online market, as will the fact that console penetration is generally low.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Console/handheld market
Consoles Microsofts Xbox 360 was the first to enter the Japanese market when it launched on December 10, 2005. Although the Xbox 360 has sold more than the previous Xbox, its sales lag behind those of the other two major consoles despite its having been in the market a year longer. One reason given for the poor performance of the Xbox platform is the lack of games that appeal to Japanese tastes. The Xbox 360 games are generally violent shooting games, while the Japanese prefer nonviolent games. Another suggested reason is that the Japanese would rather support native products than American products. To counter those issues, Microsoft is trying to spur game development for Xbox 360 in Japan, which would then drive demand for the consoles. None of the Xbox 360 games are among the top sellers in Japan. Microsoft lowered the price of Xbox 360 consoles in Japan in September 2008 with the Arcade model, without a hard drive, priced at 19,800 ($191), down from 27,800 ($269). It is the first current-generation console to be priced at less than 20,000 ($193), considered the sweet price to increase sales. Microsoft also lowered the price of its high-end modelthe Elite with a 120 GB hard driveby 17 percent to 39,800 ($385) and introduced a midlevel, 60 GB model at 29,800 ($287). Microsoft timed its price reductions to the launch of Infinite Undiscovery, an action game developed exclusively for the Xbox 360 by Square Enix, which publishes the popular Final Fantasy franchise. Sony introduced the PlayStation 3 in November 2006 with two versions: a 20 GB model and a 60 GB model, each of which offered backward compatibility with the PlayStation 2. Both models were discontinued in Japan in January 2008. Taking the place of the two original models is the 40 GB model, introduced in November 2007 at a price of 39,980 ($386). The PS3 was also introduced in Hong Kong and Taiwan in November 2006 and finally in Australia and Singapore in March 2007, nearly a year after Xbox 360. Sony introduced the PS3 to the Malaysian market in October 2008.
As is the case in the other regions of the world, Nintendos Wii is the most popular console in the region. The Wii, which is priced at 25,000 ($242), is the only one of the current consoles that has not had a price reduction. It was the lowest-priced console on the market until the recent price reduction of the basic Xbox 360. The Wii sold almost 3 million units in Japan in 2008 compared with about 1 million PS3s and 300,000 Xbox 360s. Handheld devices As they were developing their new consoles, Sony and Nintendo introduced handheld devices to keep the market going. Sony introduced the PlayStation Portable in Japan on December 12, 2004. The PSP is a portable game device as well as a music and video player. Sony introduced the PSP-3000 in Japan in October 2008. The new version has an internal microphone and a brighter display. The device sells for 19,800 ($191), the same price as the previous model, compared with 16,800 ($162) for the DS. Recently, it has been outselling the DS in Japan, helped by Capcoms popular hunting game Monster Hunter Freedom 2G and Square Enixs Final Fantasy. The PSP-3000 can be plugged into any television to play games on a large screen. Nintendo introduced the DS handheld game device in Japan on December 2, 2004. With more-sophisticated functionality, the DS is intended for a market that is older than that for the Game Boy. The DS has builtin wireless networking and text messaging using PictoChat. When the DS was launched, there was major support from third-party developers, including Electronics Arts. Handheld devices are a major factor in the market because playing games on portable devices is a part of Japanese culture. Nintendo introduced the DSi in November 2008 and sold more than 500,000 units in a month despite limited supplies. The DSi added two built-in cameras, a secure digital card slot, and the ability to download games. In the future, the cameras will be incorporated into games. Since its introduction through the beginning of 2009, the DSi has outsold every other console or handheld device each week. The DS and DSi sold 4 million units in Japan in 2008 compared with 3.5 million PSPs.
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We expect low-single-digit growth during 201011 as the current generation of consoles ages. As in Japan, we expect faster growth in other countries during 201213 as the next generation enters the market. South Korea is the second-largest market in the region, with revenues of $1.9 billion in 2008, up 16 percent from 2007. We look for growth to average 5.9 percent compounded annually to $2.5 billion in 2013. Australia represents a significant console/handheld game market, with revenues of $660 million in 2008, a 20 percent advance from 2007. As in most other countries, growth will drop to mid single digits in 2009 and will slow further during 201011 before improving during 201213. We expect the market to grow to $872 million by 2013, increasing at a 5.7 percent compound annual rate.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Online games
The PRC and South Korea are the two dominant markets in the region, at $1.3 billion and $1.2 billion, respectively, in 2008. By contrast, Japan has lagged behind these countries, at $830 million. Most Japanese prefer single-player console and handheld games, as opposed to the MMOGs popular in China and South Korea. In the PRC, consumers pay about five cents per hour to play at one of the many Internet cafs. Originally, the PRC imported most of its online games from South Korea. However, the PRC government stepped in to encourage development of the local online game development industry by establishing quotas on foreign games and preferential tax policies for local developers. Currently, there are more than 100 companies operating over 200 online games in the PRC, with the top online game operators Shanda, NetEase, and The9 generating 70 percent of the industrys revenues. NetEases Fantasy Westward Journey, based on a well-known Chinese novel, is the most successful online game in the country. The9 is the local operator of World of Warcraft (WoW), which has more than 4 million players in the PRC. MMOGs are often role-playing games wherein groups often combine their efforts to achieve a goal. MMOGs get the bulk of their revenues from subscriptions, payto-play models, and microtransactions, while casual games get revenue from people paying to download games, from advertising, and to a lesser extent from subscriptions. The9 released the latest expansion for WoW: Wrath of the Lich King, in the PRC market in early 2009. WoW is the first Western game to do very well in Asia Pacific and in the PRC in particular. WoW gets around the piracy problem by being given away for free, with revenues being generated by players who pay to play on either an hourly or a monthly basis. Microsoft plans to launch the Xbox Live Marketplace in Japan in 2009, almost three years after its initial introduction in the US. The Marketplace will enable Xbox 360 owners to download movies and animated cartoons (anime) to their consoles. The content will be specially designed for the Japanese market and will be limited to that market.
Since piracy is so prevalent in Asia Pacific, most developers are providing their games for free and using microtransactions as a means of generating revenues. Advertising is another method for developers to recoup their costs. The PRC has a thriving online business because it has a negligible console video game business. South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, and Japan have strong console and online markets. Outside these countries almost all online gaming takes place on PCs. South Korea has a fervent online gaming culture with one of the highest rates of microtransaction purchases in the world. Real-time strategy (RTS) gamesin particular, Starcraft (released in 1998)are incredibly popular with South Korean gamers. Professional RTS players are revered as celebrities, and games are often broadcast on television. Rainbow, a major animation company in Europe, is making a major investment to develop an online MMOG in Singapore. The game, which is based on the popular Winx Club franchise, will feature fairies and witches similar in nature to WoW. It will use a free-to-play business model, with charges for additional content. Despite the popularity of the MMOGs, there is a substantial audience for simpler games played by the more casual player. Web sites like Yahoo! Games and MSN Zone attract millions of gamers worldwide. Casual games are fueling online growth by attracting a broader demographic basis than MMOGs do and by expanding the overall market. In the Philippines, IPVG and GMA Network formed a joint venture, I-Play, that will focus on providing services for the casual online gaming market. The online market will be driven from growth in the broadband market and, in some countries, rising penetration of new consoles that connect to the Internet. The online game market rose by 18.7 percent in 2008. We project spending will rise from $3.9 billion in 2008, largest in the world, to $6.7 billion in 2013, an 11.6 percent increase compounded annually.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Wireless games
Asia Pacific also has the largest wireless game market in the world, primarily due to strength in Japan and South Korea. Japan and South Korea have gamingcentric societies in which people play games on their phones for extended periods of time. By contrast, wireless games are less popular in Hong Kong, where phones are used primarily only for talking. The wireless game market in Asia Pacific has higherquality games than in other regions, in part because there are a large number of advanced 3G handsets that support 3-D games and multiplayer games. Most countries in Asia Pacific have only one or two major wireless providers, making it easier for game developers because they do not have to customize their games for a large variety of formats.
Most new phones are Internet enabled, providing a strong market for game developers who are introducing games that can be played online against other competitors, which will spur demand. In a number of emerging markets such as India, the wireless phone is the dominant game playing device, as it is often the only available device outside of Internet cafs. There are two distinct segments of the market: (1) simple casual games geared to the mass market and (2) high-end games that incorporate 3-D graphics and network connectivity. Game developers like I-Play are developing games specifically for mobile devices instead of simply porting console games. The games are being designed to be played with one hand or traditional mobile controls.
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The PRC is becoming more of a force in the wireless game market due to the sales of higher-end handsets, which fostered innovations in game development leading to a better gaming experience. In 2005, Pan Asia Games launched the PRCs first massive multiplayer online roleplaying game, Age of Fantasy. In 2006, local publisher Gameislive.com introduced Zhan Guo, a multiplayer game that has more than 200,000 users. In October 2008, KTF, South Koreas second-largest mobile carrier, announced that it was initiating a mobile phone gaming service that will provide games produced by more than 30 developers, including Nexon Mobile Corp. and Gamevil Inc. KTF is collaborating with NTT DoCoMo, Japans largest mobile provider, on this project.
Advertiser-supported games are an emerging segment of the market. Instead of paying for the games, some players watch a short ad before the game begins and then are granted free playing time. Greystripe, a major company in the field of advertiser-supported wireless video games, reports that the PRC and India are among its major markets. There are more wireless telephone subscribers in Asia Pacific than in the rest of the world combined. As a result, the region provides a huge potential for wireless gaming. That market will be helped by wireless network upgrades. Wireless game revenues rose by 33.5 percent in 2008 to $3.8 billion. We expect growth during the next five years to average 16.7 percent compounded annually to $8.2 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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PC games
The retail PC game market is not significant in many countries in the region because of piracy. Companies are developing digital distribution services to establish an alternative distribution method. As a result, the PC market is relatively weak. Unlike the situation in other regions, where online games often require the retail purchase of a PC version of the game, in Asia Pacific, because of high piracy
rates, the games are often downloaded for free, with revenues coming from microtransactions. Japan and Australia are the two major PC game markets in the region, as piracy is not as much of a problem in those countries. PC game sales have been declining during the past two years. We expect continued decreases during the next five years, with spending falling to $810 million in 2013 from $870 million in 2008, a 1.4 percent decrease compounded annually.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Advertising
Advertising is a small but growing segment of the market in Asia Pacific. Video game advertising takes many forms, including banner ads on game Web sites, in-game advertising, and advergames. Game developers are looking at advertising as an additional source of revenues. Greystripe, a leader in wrapping mobile games with advertising, is quite active in the Asia Pacific region. In-game advertising originally consisted of static ads that were placed in games when they were developed and that could not be altered. With the advent of online games played over the Internet, dynamic advertising entered the market. Dynamic ads can be changed via the Internet. For example, a movie studio can advertise a new movie every few weeks. Additionally, ads could
be customized for each country in the regionin different languages. Online gaming also enables advertisers to know how often their ads are seen. Focus Media and Bihu Technology dominate the ingame advertising market in the PRC. Massive Incorporated, one of the pioneers in the dynamic game advertising industry, which was acquired by Microsoft in 2006, and WEBZEN Inc., a South Korean global online entertainment company, agreed to put advertising into two of Microsofts MMOGs: Huxley, which debuted in 2007, and All Points Bulletin. This was Massives first entry into the Asian market. Growth in online gaming will fuel video game advertising, which we expect will increase from $185 million in 2008 to $365 million in 2013, a 14.6 percent compound annual advance.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Latin America
Console/handheld games will grow by 6.6 percent compounded annually from $745 million in 2008 to $1 billion in 2013. The PC game market is expected to reach $164 million, up from $126 million in 2008, a 5.4 percent compound annual increase. The wireless game market is expected to increase from $327 million in 2008 to $569 million in 2013, growing at 11.7 percent on a compound annual basis. A small online game market, at $46 million in 2008, will reach $163 million in 2013, growing by 28.8 percent on a compound annual basis. Advertising is expected to grow at a 15.4 percent compound annual rate from $23 million to $47 million in 2013.
Overview
The overall video game market in Latin America is projected to grow by 9.2 percent compounded annually from $1.3 billion in 2008 to $2 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Mexico is by far the largest video game market of the region, with revenues of $638 million in 2008, 50 percent of the regions total. Brazil is the second-largest
market in the region, with $326 million in revenues in 2008, around 25 percent of the market.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Console/handheld market
Consoles There are no production or distribution facilities for consoles in Latin America. As a result, game consoles must be imported from the United States, and console prices are relatively high compared with other regions. That fact, combined with the generally low disposable incomes in the region, explains the relatively weak video game market. In August 2008, Nintendo announced that it would begin an aggressive marketing campaign in Latin America to reach potential gamers. Microsoft introduced the Xbox 360 in Mexico in February 2006 and has sold over 700,000 units since then. Mexico is a major market for Microsoft, while not being as important for Nintendo and Sony. By contrast, Nintendo introduced the Wii in Mexico in November 2006, and unlike the situation in most other markets, it still trails the Xbox 360. Sony introduced the PS3 in August 2007 and is a distant third in the console race. On the other hand, Sony introduced the PS2 in Mexico in 2004 and has been quite successful, selling a million units in Mexico. The PS2 continues to be the best-selling console in the region due to its low selling price and availability.
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Console/handheld game revenues rose by 24.2 percent in 2008 to $745 million. As in other regions, we expect growth to moderate to mid- to low-single-digit rates during the next three years as the current generation of consoles ages. We then look for a pickup in growth as the next generation begins to enter the market. We expect spending to total $1 billion in 2013, increasing at a 6.6 percent compound annual rate from 2008.
Mexico constituted about 50 percent of the markets revenues, with $377 million, and is expected to grow to $539 million in 2013, a 7.4 percent increase on a compound annual basis. Brazil had revenues of $185 million in 2008 and is expected to increase to $246 million in 2013, an annual increase of 5.9 percent.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
PC game market
The PC game market is extremely limited in Latin America because of the relatively low penetration of PCs and the high rate of piracy, which is estimated at over 90 percent. Although small, the PC market constitutes a higher share of total video game spending than other regions because there is less competition from online gaming due to low broadband penetration. Additionally, competition from consoles is not as strong in Latin America as it is in other regions because the consoles are priced relatively high.
Many gamers rely on PCs for their gaming enjoyment. Rising PC penetration should continue to spur sales. We expect the PC game market to grow by 5.4 percent at a compound annual rate from $126 million in 2008 to $164 million in 2013. Mexicos PC game market is expected to grow from $66 million in 2008 to $87 million in 2013, growing at a 5.7 percent compound annual rate.
390
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Wireless games
Wireless games are starting to play a more important role in Latin America, as the generally low penetration of PCs and consoles means wireless phones are often the only gaming device available to players. Wireless game spending is projected to increase by 11.7 percent on a compound annual basis from $327 million in 2008 to $569 million in 2013. Mexico had the highest wireless game market in 2008, with $164 million, and will maintain its dominance,
growing 11.5 percent on a compound annual rate to $283 million. Brazils wireless market is relatively strong, at $89 million, growing to $158 million in 2013, as it has a higher penetration of wireless subscribers. Argentina continues to be the third-strongest market, with revenues increasing from $26 million in 2008 to $45 million in 2013, growing by 11.6 percent on a compound annual basis.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Online games
Low broadband penetration has hindered the development of an online game market in Latin America. During the past few years, the broadband household universe doubled, and an online game market began to emerge. With broadband now taking off in Latin America, we look for the online gaming market to expand. We project the online game market to more than triple from $46 million in 2008 to $163 million in 2013, growing at a 28.8 percent annual rate. Broadband penetration is rising in the more developed countries like Argentina and Brazil, which will help the online game market.
Gamers who do not have PCs or game consoles at home frequent Locutoriosthe Latin American equivalent of Internet cafsto compete against other players. Digital downloads of games is a relatively small segment of the market, as most gamers play at Locutorio cafs and will therefore not pay to download games. Microtransactions represent a growing revenue stream. Regnum Online is a 3-D MMOG game developed and operated by NGD studios in Argentina. Most of its players are in Argentina, Brazil, Spain, and Germany. While less than 40 percent of the games players are in Europe, they account for over 80 percent of spending, indicating that Latin American players spend relatively little on the game. The average Latin American MMOG player tends to spend less than counterparts do in other regions of the world.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Advertising
Video game advertising is not very well established in Latin America, with the overall market totaling just $23 million in 2008 and growing to $47 million in 2013. As the online market is very small in Latin America, the potential for dynamic in-game advertising, which requires an Internet connection, is limited.
Advertising helps pay for many of the flash games that people play at Locutorios. Mexico constituted more than half of the market, with $12 million in advertising in 2008 and is expected to maintain its share throughout the forecast period, ending with $23 million in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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396 Summary 398 North America 406 Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA) 419 Asia Pacific 428 Latin America
Summary
weakest, declining from $21.9 billion in 2008 to $20.1 billion in 2013, a 1.7 percent decrease on an annual basis. In EMEA, a weak advertising market will more than offset a small increase in public license fees, resulting in an overall 0.1 percent annual decline in the radio market from $18.4 billion to $18.3 billion. We expect the Asia Pacific radio market to increase 0.9 percent on an annual basis from $7.2 billion in 2008 to $7.6 billion in 2013 as an increase in public license fees augments a modest increase in advertising. The radio market in Latin America is projected to be relatively flat, at $1.2 billion, as decreases in 2009 and 2010 are offset by increases in later years. EMEA had the largest out-of-home market in 2008, at $10.7 billion, a total projected to decrease by 2.5 percent compounded annually to $9.4 billion in 2013. Asia Pacific will grow at a 3.5 percent compound annual rate during the next five years, surpassing EMEA as the largest market. North America will grow by 2.4 percent on an annual basis from $7.7 billion in 2008 to $8.7 billion in 2013. Latin America is expected to show the largest gain, growing by 3.5 percent on a compound annual basis from $723 million in 2008 to $859 million in 2013.
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Principal drivers
Weak economic conditions worldwide will lower spending significantly in 2009 and less so in 2010. With improved economic conditions in 2011, we expect a return to growth. Out-of-home will be fueled by digital billboards that expand the effective out-of-home inventory because multiple ads can be shown on the same display, thereby generating many times the revenue of a traditional
billboard. Improved out-of-home audience measurement will attract advertisers, and the expansion of captive video networks will also fuel growth. As a result, out-of-home will be less severely affected than radio by the economic downturn. Radio advertising will face growing competition from the Internet, but satellite radio will boost spending in North America. Modest increases in public radio license fees will help stabilize the radio markets in EMEA and Asia Pacific.
Data for the radio and out-of-home market by region and for the radio and out-of-home market by component can be found within the Executive Summary on pages 49 and 50.
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North America
Satellite radio advertising will increase from $100 million in 2008 to $230 million in 2013, an 18.1 percent compound annual increase. Radio advertising as a whole will total $15.0 billion in 2013, down 4.3 percent on a compound annual basis from 2008. Satellite radio subscription spending will expand from $3.3 billion in 2008 to $5.1 billion in 2013, a 9.4 percent increase compounded annually. The overall satellite radio market including advertising will grow by 9.7 percent compounded annually to $5.3 billion in 2013. The overall radio market will total $20.1 billion in 2013, declining by a 1.7 percent compound annual rate from 2008. Out-of-home advertising will rise at a 2.4 percent compound annual rate from $7.7 billion in 2008 to $8.7 billion in 2013.
Overview
The radio and out-of-home market will decrease to $28.8 billion in 2013, declining by a 0.6 percent compound annual rate. Terrestrial radio advertising will fall by 22.8 percent during the next three years and at a 4.5 percent compound annual rate through 2013 to $14.8 billion in 2013 from $18.6 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Outdoor Advertising Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Statistics Canada, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Sources: Outdoor Advertising Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Statistics Canada, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
The radio/out-of-home market in the US will decline by 0.9 percent on a compound annual basis from $27.5 billion in 2008 to $26.3 billion in 2013.
The Canadian market will increase by 3.3 percent on a compound annual basis, reaching $2.5 billion in 2013 from $2.1 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Outdoor Advertising Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Statistics Canada
Although the economy will adversely affect radio advertising in Canada in the near term, over the longer run new stations and radio station collectives will contribute to a recovery. A number of new licenses were issued in 2006, and new stations began to enter the market during the past two years, expanding the potential radio advertising inventory. Radio station collectives, which sell advertising across a number of stations simultaneously, make it easier for national advertisers to buy radio. Collectives have contributed to national radio advertising growth in the past, and we expect that once the economy rebounds, they will provide a lift in the future.
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PPM Arbitron introduced Personal People Meters (PPMs) in Houston and Philadelphia in 2007 and added a number of major markets, including Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, and San Francisco in 2008. Arbitron expects to expand the service to the top 50 markets in the US by the end of 2010. PPMs are small sensors worn by panelists that are expected to provide more accurate measurement than traditional paper diaries in the same way they did in the television market. PPMs were also launched in a number of test markets in Canada in 2009. A number of broadcasters tried to delay the introduction of PPMs in the US because they felt that the sample was inaccurate and would lead to lower ratings for their stations, resulting in lower advertising revenues. Survey sampling is generally restricted to landline numbers. Some broadcasters thought this meant that urban and Hispanic audiences were underrepresented, as they were more likely to be cellphone-only households. The lawsuits were settled in January 2009, when Arbitron agreed to double the size of its cell-phone-only sample. In a similar fashion, samples had to be adjusted when television migrated from diaries. As with television, PPM data is leading to dramatic shifts in ratings, with some program categories benefiting and others being negatively impacted. As more markets are covered and as advertisers become accustomed to the new way of evaluating radio, PPMs should have a positive effect on the market because they will allow for faster reporting and more exact figures. Early results show that people listen to more radio stations than was previously reported. In New York, cumulative ratings for the top five stations doubled with the switch to PPM. HD Radio HD Radio is a trademarked technology that lets AM and FM stations broadcast digital signals alongside their analog signals. It was developed and licensed several years ago by iBiquity Digital Corp. HD Radio can deliver better sound quality without station fading and hisses. Through digital compression, radio stations can also broadcast multiple signals simultaneously with their standard analog signal using the HD2 sideband. Listeners need an HD receiver to access HD2 stations,
but there is no subscription fee. Thus, niche channels, an important driver of satellite radio growth, will be available on free terrestrial radio. HD receiver prices have come down and are now less than $200. The uptake for HD Radio has been limited, with less than a million special radios sold. Several auto manufacturers are including HD Radio as a standard feature in their cars in 2009. Factory installation of satellite radio receivers in automobiles is the principal driver of that market and should stimulate the HD market as well once auto sales increase. In 2008, HD Radio technology was available to 80 percent of the population through 1,500 stations. With the limited number of radios sold, features like the ability to identify a song and then buy it from iTunes are going unused. Advertising is now being sold on HD Radio, but it will take several years until significant ad revenues are achieved. Currently, HD Radio does not offer much content beyond standard radio. During the next few years, more stations will launch HD2 channels that will provide content not generally available. While we do not expect HD Radio to match the offerings of satellite radio within the next five years, it will be a new competitor. Radio operators are involved in a new initiative called Buy from FM whereby FM tuners are being made available on MP3 players and cell phones so consumers can identify from their devices and buy the songs they hear on their radios. The first partner in FM tagging is Microsoft Zune, which has been introduced in 450 stations. Currently, Zune has only 5 percent of the MP3 market. This technology has to be more widespread to make the music discovery market more significant. Internet radio The streaming of radio programs on the Internet by both traditional radio broadcasters and Internetonly broadcasters is on the rise, with more than 50 million listeners on a weekly basis. By streaming their programs online, station operators can widen their reach beyond their signal area and increase their potential to sell to national advertisers. Currently, Internet ad sales are modest and are not included in the figures.
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In 2007, the Library of Congresss Copyright Royalty Board more than doubled the fees that Internet radio stations pay artists and record labels to air their music. Before March 2007, large broadcasters paid 76.2 cents per song for every thousand listeners, and smaller stations with less than $1.25 million in sales paid 10 to 12 percent of their revenues. The new policy mandates that all stations pay a per-song rate that increases each year until 2010, when it reaches $1.90. In February 2009, SoundExchange, the organization that collects the royalties on behalf of artists and record companies, agreed to an 18 percent reduction in royalties for 2009 and 2010 for commercial radio stations that also stream online. The new deal will cost radio stations $1.50 for every song heard by 1,000 listeners in 2009, rising to $2.50 per thousand listeners in 2015. The agreement covers several thousand National Association of Broadcasters stations. Stations that are not members of the National Association of Broadcasters can also follow the agreement. New technology is releasing Internet radio from the computer, allowing it to become more portable and reaching more people. Wi-Fi radios will enable those consumers who are unwilling to pay for satellite radio but who want more than the limited selection
on terrestrial radio to access Internet stations. Smart phones, with their access to the Internet, will also drive interest in Internet radio. As Wi-Fi radios popularity increases, advertisers will start to take notice of the new means to reach radio listeners. Currently, Wi-Fi radios cost about $200, but we expect their price to fall in the near future. Frontier Silicon is planning to introduce Internet radios to the market in 2009 at a price of less than $150. Blaupunkt plans to release car radios in 2009 that will enable listeners to switch between AM/ FM stations and Internet radio at the touch of a button. Outlook for terrestrial radio advertising Terrestrial radio advertising as a whole will total $14.8 billion in 2013, 4.5 percent lower on a compound annual basis from $18.6 billion in 2008. Terrestrial radio advertising in the United States will decline by a 4.7 percent compound annual rate, while Canadian radio advertising will decrease by a 2.1 percent compound annual rate. Canadian radio is less competitive than in the United States, with fewer stations per thousand listeners. Additionally, many of the stations are publicly owned and have little or no advertising, thereby helping make the Canadian market less vulnerable to the economy than the American market is.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Statistics Canada, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Satellite radio
Satellite radio entered the marketplace to resolve some of the limitations of traditional radio, including limited range and poor transmission. Travelers cannot listen to their favorite programming outside their local region. With satellite radio, travelers can listen to their favorite programming with clear transmissions wherever they are. They can also listen to specific programming in a commercial-free environment.
In February 2007, the two competitors, XM Satellite Radio and Sirius Satellite Radio, announced their intention to merge in the United States. In March 2008, the Department of Justice approved the merger because it agreed with the companies that they compete with other forms of audio entertainment, including Internet radio and portable devices like the iPod. The Federal Communications Commission approved the merger in July 2008 over the objection of the National Association of Broadcasters that consumers would be better off
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with competition between the two companies. The new company, called Sirius XM Radio Inc., agreed to a number of conditions, including a three-year price cap and providing an la carte offering whereby listeners could pay only for channels they wanted to listen to. In October 2008, Sirius XM outlined a new programming package called Best of Both, which offers subscribers of either of the former companies in the US the option of adding a select group of channels from the other service for a monthly cost of $16.99, as opposed to the normal monthly service of $12.95. For example, former XM subscribers can now add Siriuss Howard Stern, Martha Stewart Living Radio, and NASCAR, among other channels, while former Sirius subscribers can add XMs Oprah Winfrey channel, XM Public Radio, and select National Basketball Association games, among other channels. In February 2009, Sirius XM was wrestling with significant liquidity issues, as the company had a debt of $175 million that was due at the end of the month. Liberty Media, owner of DIRECTV, came to the rescue with a $530-million loan that will pay off the February debt as well as other debt that comes due later in the year. In return, Liberty will receive 40 percent of Sirius XMs stock and seats on the board. Liberty Medias action also prevented a possible takeover of Sirius XM by DIRECTVs competitor EchoStar, which has been buying Sirius XMs debt. Satellite radio offers hundreds of stations and formats, most of which are not available on terrestrial radio. Sirius XM ended 2008 with about 19 million subscribers. The growth in the number of subscribers is expected to slow in 2009. Many new subscribers were introduced to satellite radio through factory-installed receivers in certain new cars, which gave them the service for free. Auto companies are now installing satellite receivers on a wider array of models, including economy cars. During the next five years, satellite radio will become a common option in automobiles. Most of Sirius XMs subscribers are car owners who get the service with their cars because around 50 percent of all new cars come equipped with
satellite radio. As the automobile industry suffers in the economic downturn and as the free subscriptions given away with new cars reach expiry, subscriber growth will be challenged. XM Canada launched the XMp3, a portable satellite radio and MP3 player that provides access to satellite radio. In November 2008, AT&T announced the introduction of Cruisecraft, a satellite-based in-car radio and television service scheduled to debut in 2009. The service, which utilizes a technology that can overcome line-of-sight issues like tunnels or buildings, will feature 22 television channels and 20 satellite radio channels. The service, which will cost around $28 a month, will compete against Sirius XM. Growth in satellite radios audience is attracting advertisers. Advertising spending in 2008 was $100 million. Satellite radio listeners are generally upscale and are committed to the medium, as evidenced by their willingness to pay a subscription fee. These characteristics are attractive to advertisers. Although listening will remain fragmented on satellite radio and although many channels will remain commercial free, we expect that rising subscribershipsupported by the availability of programming not available on terrestrial radio, as well as the bundling of subscriptions with new carswill see advertisers increase their investment in the platform. Moreover, as the audience grows, advertising will grow more than proportionally, because a larger reach commands a premium. The lack of good measurement among the numerous channels will hamper growth somewhat. We expect advertising to more than double from $100 million in 2008 to $230 million in 2013, an 18.1 percent annual rate of growth. The overall satellite radio market will expand at a 9.7 percent compound annual rate to $5.3 billion in 2013. The US market will grow at an annual rate of 8.3 percent to $4.6 billion in 2013, while Canadian growth is expected to be much higherincreasing at a 21.5 percent compound annual rate to $759 million because the industry started later and is still in the early stages of significant growth.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Out-of-home advertising
The out-of-home (OOH) market is being transformed by the deployment of digital billboards, the expansion of captive video networks, and new ways to reach people. Except for the Internet, out-of-home has been the fastest-growing advertising category during the past few years. Improved measurement of OOH is also spurring advertiser spending. Although digital technologies still account for a relatively small proportion of the out-ofhome market, they are generating a large proportion of growth. Digital billboards significantly increase a sites advertising potential compared with static posters because they can accommodate multiple advertisers. A digital billboard that shows sequential ads that change every 8 to 10 seconds can generate 10 times the revenue of a poster that displays a single ad. Digital ads can be updated frequently and quickly, eliminating the long advance time that was required with traditional OOH billboards. The ability to change ads as necessary provides advertisers with increased flexibility. Ads on digital signs can be sold by daypart, similar to television, with certain ads appearing in the evening and others in the morning. Additionally, OOH operators can charge premium rates for prime-time commuting hours, when more people will see the ads. Digital OOH operators have also developed strategies to increase their revenues, such as offering advertisers exclusive category sponsorship or unlimited copy changes.
Companies are establishing networks of digital displays in similar environments such as health clubs, grocery stores, and gas stations. In this way, similar programming and advertisements can be controlled from a central server and can be screened to many locations at the same time. There are now hundreds of digital networks nationwide, with new ones being introduced every week. Fast-food chain Dennys signed a deal with IndoorDirect to program its network of 300 video displays. In 2007, CBS created CBS Outernet when it acquired SignStory, a video network that covers thousands of grocery stores. In 2008, NBC introduced its NBC Everywhere with a portfolio of digital networks. The street furniture, transit, and alternative component of the out-of-home market has also been expanding. Municipalities are contracting out-of-home companies to provide bus stop shelters, public restrooms, and other street furniture to improve urban amenities in return for the right to sell advertising. Transit ads are an increasing portion of the market. These ads include static ads that appear on the sides of buses, ads that wrap entire buses, and digital displays both inside and outside buses and taxis. Airports are a growing market for out-of-home advertising because people spend more time prior to flights, have few distractions, and are in effect a captive audience. Airports also have space to provide large displays. At JFK airport in New York, for example, tunnels are now equipped with 70-inch, high-definition video screens and hundreds of speakers.
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There are a number of new technologies being introduced in the OOH market that are helping expand the market. Titan Worldwide is testing LED signs on buses in New York and Chicago. The signs are equipped with GPS tracking devices, enabling the advertising to change based on the location of the bus. Lamar is testing solar-powered billboards that it hopes will be alternatives to the digital billboards that are now becoming more prevalent in the industry. The technology developed by Magink uses solar power and light-reflecting ink rather than light-emitting diodes (LEDs). The signs use less power than LED signs do, and since they reflect light rather than emit light, they provide a good alternative for locations where local residents oppose bright lights. These new billboards offer higher resolution than LEDs do and make flesh tones look more realistic. A number of companies are experimenting with projection lighting whereby an advertisers logo is seen on the side of a building. This alternative to traditional OOH is usually used for a short period of time and is commonly associated with specific events like trade shows. The projection systems can also be used to display ads on a ship or a river or any large structure. Vancouver, Canadabased Vision Media conducted street stenciling campaigns for Scotts Lawn Care and the LG shine. The stencils, which last up to 14 days, were very well received in ecologically conscious Vancouver. Interactive billboards are another new format. Using Bluetooth technology, mobile phone users can download information from billboards. Pepsi has ads in airports that allow people to download clips of concerts; and bus shelters in New York give commuters the opportunity to download clips from the Discovery network. Improved measurement of the OOH audience is providing advertisers with the information to evaluate the impact of their purchases. Improved measurement is generally associated with increased spending. The Out-of-Home Video Advertising Bureau has established guidelines for standardization within the industry. In this way, aggregators can put together groups of individual video networks that appeal to regional or national advertisers. Since advertisers often prefer large-scale audiences, the consolidation of many
different digital networks will help spur the growth of advertising by national advertisers. Additionally, Nielsen has its On Location media measurement tool, which provides viewership data for digital networks in various venues like gas stations and health clubs. Nielsen also measures billboard advertising with electronic meters as part of its Nielsen Outdoor system. The Traffic Audit Bureau for Media Measurement (TAB) is introducing its new measurement system called Eyes On Ratings measuring system in 200 markets. The system combines the TABs out-of-home traffic audits with visibility-adjusted indexes to estimate the number of people who notice the billboards and for how long they are exposed to the billboards. The TAB is a not-forprofit organization supported by advertisers and OOH operators that has provided standardized measurement of the OOH industry since 1933. Four of Canadas largest OOH companies have launched TRANSIT, a reach-and-frequency measurement tool for Canadas transit systems, which gives advertisers a unified planning tool. TRANSIT is being sponsored by CBS Outdoor, Lamar Outdoor, Metromedia Plus, and Pattison Outdoor. Some companies are equipping billboards with small cameras that gather information about people who pass by the billboards. The information includes demographic data as well as how long the people are in front of the billboards. No actual pictures of the passersby are maintained because pictures would pose privacy issues. Instead, the pictures are translated into demographic characteristics that are maintained on a server for later analysis. In the near term, lack of capital will be an impediment to digital growth, because conversion to digital is expensive. Over the longer run, the biggest impediment to the growth of digital advertising is the local government approval process. In December 2008, Los Angeles passed a 90-day moratorium on the installing of new billboards to give the city more time to modify its 2002 ruling. In February 2009, the Los Angeles city council told building owners to remove super-graphic signs that are draped across multistory buildings, because they pose a fire hazard. A number of states including Alaska, Hawaii, Maine, and Vermonthave banned billboards.
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There are a number of local government initiatives in Canada to reduce the number of billboards. A billboard ban is moving forward in Quebec, while Ontarios top court overturned an attempt by the city of Oakville to restrict billboard use. Vancouver has banned large signs on rooftops, and some council members in Ottawa are looking for the power to ban billboards in their districts. While out-of-home has been affected by the weakened economy in 2008 and 2009, with cutbacks in capital spending resulting in a slower transition to digital
billboards and reducing the growth in street furniture, spending will hold up over the longer term. We project the OOH market to grow by 2.4 percent on a compound annual rate through 2013, reaching $8.7 billion, up from $7.7 billion in 2008. The OOH market in the US will grow by 2.5 percent annually to reach $8.2 billion, while the Canadian market will grow slightly slower, reaching $528 million in 2013. In both countries, we expect digital screens and digital networks to constitute an increasing share of the market.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Outdoor Advertising Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Public radio license fees will be the only segment of the market expected to show an increase, growing 1.6 percent annually to reach $11.4 billion in 2013, up from $10.5 billion in 2008. Public radio license fees will overtake out-of-home advertising as the leading segment of the market in 2009 and will maintain its position throughout the forecast period. Radio advertising will exhibit the largest decrease among the segments, declining by 17.8 percent during the next three years and at a 2.6 percent compound annual rate to $6.9 billion in 2013 from $7.9 billion in 2008. The total radio market will decline slightly from $18.4 billion in 2008 to $18.3 billion in 2013, a 0.1 percent decrease on a compound annual basis.
Overview
We project the radio and out-of-home market in EMEA will decline from $29.1 billion in 2008 to $27.7 billion in 2013, decreasing at a 1 percent compound annual rate. Out-of-home advertising will decrease by 2.5 percent compounded annually from $10.7 billion in 2008 to $9.4 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Western Europe, which accounts for 84 percent of the regions combined spending, will decrease by 0.6 percent compounded annually to $23.7 billion in 2013 from $24.3 billion in 2008. Central and Eastern Europe will decrease at a 4.3 percent compound annual rate to $3.1 billion from $3.9 billion in 2008, while Middle East/Africa will be the only segment of the region to exhibit modest growth, increasing 1.4 percent compounded annually to $918 million from $858 million in 2008. Germany is the largest market in the region, at $5.9 billion in 2008, with public radio license fees accounting for 65 percent of that total. Germany ranks third in radio advertising and fourth in out-of-home advertising in EMEA. The effects of the poor economic conditions will cause the advertising segments to decline. Spending will dip to $5.8 billion by 2013. The United Kingdom is the second-largest market overall, at $3.9 billion, but ranks first in advertising. The continuing economic crisis will offset increased radio listening associated with digital and Internet radio
as well as expected increases in outdoor advertising, reflecting the move to digitization. We project the UK to decline by 14.5 percent during the next three years and by 2.5 percent on a compound annual basis through 2013 to $3.5 billion. France ranks third in total spending, at $3.5 billion, with virtually no growth during the past five years. Although public radio fees are expected to increase modestly, it will not be enough to offset declines in OOH and radio advertising, resulting in an overall decline of 0.6 percent compounded annually to $3.4 billion in 2013. Italy and Russia are next, at $2.4 billion each. Increases in public license fees in Italy will offset advertising declines in radio and OOH, resulting in an overall increase of 0.5 percent on an annual basis through 2013 reaching $2.5 billion, up slightly from the $2.4 billion registered in 2008. We expect the economic turmoil to impact Russia in 2009, resulting in a 37 percent decline in revenues through 2011 and then rebounding somewhat to $1.7 billion in 2013, a 6.6 percent annual decline from 2008.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Out-of-home advertising
The out-of-home market is benefiting from digital technologies that expand the effective inventory and by their video displays that improve the ability to communicate. People are spending more time away from home, which is boosting the reach of out-of-home ads. The fact that out-of-home is also less subject to ad avoidance is becoming an increasingly attractive feature. The out-of-home market is also benefiting from the introduction of new technologies and improved measurement techniques that reinforce advertisers spending in the medium. In general, the OOH market is consolidated with the top three global companies controlling more than 50 percent of the market in Western Europe. This is beneficial to the industry because it will result in greater investment, stronger marketing, and better research. By contrast, developing markets like Central Europe are much less consolidated. Consolidation of the industry is continuing. Clear Channel Outdoor acquired Swiss billboard company Plakatron in 2005 and UK billboard company Van Wagner in 2006 while taking a controlling interest in 2007 in Klass Advertising, the market leader in banner advertising in Romania. In 2007, Clear Channel also bought Italian billboard company AVIP, and in 2008 it bought Avenue media in Ireland. JCDecaux entered into a joint venture with the Big Board Group, bringing the company into Russia for the first time, and with Qatar Media Services to facilitate entry into the Middle East market. In 2008, JCDecaux purchased Berlin-based VR-Berek. CBS Outdoor acquired Haveco and Maiden Outdoor in Ireland as well as Adbus in Portugal. In October 2008, JCDecaux, the largest outdoor advertising company in Europe, abandoned its plans to acquire News Outdoor Group, the Russian outdoor unit of News Corp. Both companies agreed that the current economic and capital market conditions would make it difficult to complete the transaction at this time. The acquisition would have created the worlds largest OOH company, surpassing Clear Channel.
Digital billboards and digital networks will be the key drivers. In London, CBS Outdoor is investing heavily in displays in the Underground that include LCD panels and projection systems that can be seen across train platforms. The displays are networked to enable them to be changed quickly. In addition to their ability to provide more-effective displays, digital billboards can generate many times the revenue of static billboards because they can accommodate multiple advertisers through continuous scrolling. Digital billboards make ads more like a television buy. Instead of buying the display for a two- to four-week period, advertisers buy time slots. They can adjust the ads on a daily or even hourly basis, providing different information for morning commuters than for evening commuters. Revenues for digital billboards are higher than for traditional billboards because digital billboards can be sold to multiple advertisers. Digital billboard advertising will grow as digital billboards replace traditional billboards as well as get introduced in new locations. Digital signs can be introduced in new locations where it was not economically feasible to maintain traditional billboards because it is possible to change the ads on digital billboard without having to make an on-site visit. Digital billboards are also opening up the OOH market to new advertisers. Since they lower the initial costs to advertisers because advertisers can purchase specific times on the board, they appeal to smaller advertisers that could not afford the major expenditures before. Additionally, with their flexibility and ability to change content at will, they appeal to advertisers that were put off by the long lead times required by traditional billboards. Digital networks are connected to a central server that distributes the content and advertisements to all of the displays. There are many digital networks being installed in doctors offices, elevators, gyms, grocery stores, and other captive locations. They provide information as well as advertisements and can run location-specific copy across a network. Digital billboards and digital networks are in their infancy and constitute less than 5 percent of the OOH
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market. As the price of the hardware continues to decline, we expect digital OOH to grow as a percentage of the market. The growth of digital advertising will help OOH grow relative to other media. Street furniture is a growing segment of the market and is attractive to advertisers because street furniture can reach people in the center of urban markets. The cities benefit, because companies maintain bus shelters and public restrooms in return for the right to sell advertising. JCDecaux signed a new contract for street furniture in Hamburg calling for a 30 percent increase in the number of displays from the previous contract. Transportation centers are popular venues for street furniture as well as for billboards because they are seen by many people. A number of new technologies are expanding the OOH market. In the UK, a media company called Curb has developed a technique to power wash advertising on streets. It is an environmentally friendly OOH technique, with the stencils lasting up to two weeks. Curb did 750 street washings for Kia to promote Kias new car line. It is possible to place the ads in front of specific locations targeting specific demographic groups. Out-of-home ads are difficult to avoid, whereas with traditional media, one can avoid advertising messages. For example, when watching television, people can switch channels or leave the room, thereby avoiding commercials. Similarly, when reading newspapers, people can skip the pages with advertising. By contrast, with outdoor advertising it is almost impossible to miss an ad if you are in front of it. Despite all of the innovations, the short-term growth of the OOH market will be stymied by the worldwide economic crisis. OOH advertising in EMEA is expected to decline in 2009 and 2010 before recovering in 2011 and will then grow through 2013 to reach $9.4 billion, a 2.5 percent annual decrease from 2008. Russia is the largest out-of-home market in EMEA, at $1.8 billion, more than twice its level in 2004. Growth was fueled by the entrance of international companies
and the installation of sites in key locations. A number of sites were dismantled in Moscow and Saint Petersburg at the end of 2007 and in 2008, causing slower growth. Additionally, the effects of the economy are being felt there also, with revenues projected to plunge in 2009 by 30.1 percent and to continue to fall through 2011. Even with a projected rebound during the subsequent two years, spending in 2013 will be nearly 28 percent lower than in 2008. The United Kingdom has the largest out-of home market in Western Europe and the second largest in EMEA, at $1.6 billion. The leading operators in the UK are CBS Outdoor, with its displays on the London Underground, and JCDecaux, with its signage at Heathrow airport terminal 5. Titan Worldwide and Clear Channel are increasing their market share in the UK. We expect the continued expansion of digital signs to aid growth. In the near term, poor economic conditions are causing advertisers to pull back. We expect a 23.3 percent decline during the next three years. By 2013, spending will total $1.3 billion, down 4.3 percent compounded annually from 2008. France is the third-largest market, at $1.4 billion, virtually unchanged during the past five years. France is home to JCDecaux, the largest OOH operator in Europe. Digital billboards are not as developed in France as in the UK, but they are expected to increase in number over the next few years. We expect a 1.3 percent compound annual decrease to $1.3 billion in 2013. Germany, with revenues of $1.1 billion in 2008, is the only other country in the region with revenues above the $1-billion mark. Unlike many of the other countries where major international operators are the market leaders, in Germany two local companies, Stroer and Wall, dominate the market, along with JCDecaux. In Germany, as elsewhere, rising audiences and new technologies are the driving factors for the industry. People are spending more time out of doors, both driving and walking, thereby providing a bigger audience for street furniture and roadside billboards.
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Stroer has installed more than 2,000 digital Infoscreens, which provide information and advertisements in transportation centers in Hamburg and Hannover. Out-of-home advertising in Germany is expected to decrease at a 2.9 percent annual rate through 2013, falling to $973 million. Out-of-home advertising in Western Europe will decrease at a 2.1 percent compound annual rate to $7.0 billion in 2013 from $7.7 billion in 2008. Poland is the second-largest market in Central and Eastern Europe, at $270 million in 2008. Large billboards are replacing smaller signs in much of the country. Giant Infoscreens, which combine news and sports information with advertising, are beginning to emerge in Warsaw. Clear Channel introduced a new concept called Coffee Point, which provides three advertising screens surrounding coffee-vending machines. We expect a 1.4 percent compound annual increase to $290 million in 2013. For all of Central and Eastern Europe, out-of-home advertising will decrease by 4.6 percent compounded annually to $2.0 billion in 2013 from $2.6 billion in 2008.
Middle East/Africa will be the only segment of the market to exhibit growth through the forecast period, increasing by 1.7 percent annually from $432 million in 2008 to $471 million in 2013. Saudi Arabia/Pan Arab is projected to increase by 1.9 percent compounded annually as a result of the regions relatively strong economies. In South Africa, digital billboards are expanding the effective capacity, and displays in new malls will contribute to a 2.0 percent compound annual increase.
411
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Association of Communications Agencies of Russia, Fondation Statistique Suisse en Publicit, InfoAdex, Outdoor Advertising Association, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates, ZAW
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Radio advertising
Radio advertising in EMEA decreased by 3.8 percent in 2008 and is expected to decline by 11.8 percent in 2009, reflecting the worldwide economic crisis. We expect further declines in 2010 and 2011 before stabilization in 2012 and an increase in 2013. For the forecast period as a whole, radio advertising is expected to decline by 2.6 percent on a compound annual basis through 2013, falling to $6.9 billion from $7.9 billion in 2008. The introduction of digital radio in a number of markets might help the advertising market in the future. Digital radio has a number of benefits over traditional radio, including better sound quality and the ability to broadcast a number of channels on the same amount of spectrum. The UK has the largest radio advertising market in EMEA, at $964 million in 2008. Advertising on commercial radio stations is relatively small because the BBC, which has the largest audience in the UK, does not accept advertising. The UK has the highest penetration of digital audio broadcasting (DAB) in EMEA, with 29 percent of households receiving the signals in 2008 compared with 22 percent in 2007. More than 8 million DAB radios have been sold in the UK, and DAB now accounts for more than 11 percent of listening. Despite this growth, there have not been significant advertising revenues. Channel 4 abandoned its plan to launch three digital stations because of declining advertising revenues. Channel 4 also withdrew from the 4 Digital consortium, which had been awarded a block of spectrum by Ofcom in 2007. It remains to be seen what the other members of the consortium will do. As a result, it is uncertain that any new national commercial digital stations will launch in the near future. Despite that, the government is solidly behind the migration to the digital platform and is hoping to have the migration completed by the end of the next decade. There continues to be consolidation in the radio industry in the UK, with Global Radio acquiring Gcap in April 2008 and German media company Bauer buying Emaps radio business. The new owners are pouring
money into their new stations, and the audiences of the commercial stations have been increasing. We project radio advertising in the UK to decrease by 5.0 percent on a compound annual basis to $744 million in 2013. Spain is the next-largest market, with advertising revenues of $940 million in 2008. After a decline in Spain in 2008, we expect revenues to decline furtherthrough 2011 before turning around in 2012 and 2013. We project the Spanish radio market to surpass that of the UK in 2009 and to widen the advantage through 2013, when revenues are expected to be at $899 million. Germany and Italy are the next-largest markets, at $922 million and $907 million, respectively. A DAB infrastructure that reaches 85 percent of the country is in place in Germany, with a target date of 2015 for radio to become all digital. Penetration so far is low, and it will take a number of years before digital radio will make a meaningful contribution to advertising. DAB is expected to be relaunched in 2009, with a number of new multiplexes expected to be in place. The radio market in Germany is dominated by public stations, which have about 80 percent of the listening audience. The public stations receive license fees but also sell advertising. We expect the German radio market to decline by 13.4 percent in 2009, with smaller declines in 2010 and 2011 before turning around in 2012 and 2013. Revenues in 2013 are expected to be $754 million, a 3.9 percent annual decrease from the 2008 level. Italian revenues are expected to surpass those of Germanywhose advertising market is falling even more rapidlyin 2009 and are expected to turn around in 2011, one year earlier than Germany, where the decline will be more pronounced. Italy will continue to increase through 2013, reaching $841 million to become the second-largest market, behind Spain. Radio advertising in France has been sluggish in recent years and declined in 2007 and 2008. President Nicolas Sarkozy has announced plans to eliminate advertising on public radio, with a start date sometime in 2009 and continuing through the end of 2011. We project radio advertising will decrease by 3.2 percent at a compound annual rate, falling to $739 million in 2013.
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A number of new FM licenses have been recently awarded in the Netherlands. However, these new stations are only fragmenting the market and are not expected to add significant advertising revenues. DAB is slowly entering the market, but it is uncertain what impact if any DAB stations will have on revenues because we are uncertain of the demand for DAB given the rise in number of FM stations. Until now, the only DAB stations were run by public broadcasters with little listener support. Internet radio is starting to enter the marketplace with the launching of RNW24 by Radio Netherlands Worldwide in 2008. If that station proves successful, it is likely that other Internet radio stations will emerge. Dutch radio advertising revenues are expected to decrease from $424 million in 2008 to $388 million in 2013, declining by 1.8 percent on a compound annual rate. In Central and Eastern Europe, by contrast, radio advertising grew at double-digit annual rates through 2007, led by explosive growth in Russia. In 2008, Russia fell by 6 percent, and overall spending decreased by 1.0 percent. We expect a steeper, 28.6 percent decline in 2009, as the economy and the advertising market are plunging, and cumulative decreases of 38.5 percent through 2011 before a turnaround. Revenues are projected to be $386 million in 2013, down 7.3 percent compounded annually from $563 million in 2008. There has been a consolidation in the Polish radio market, with very few independent stations remaining. The radio networks have been expanding to more markets, and new frequencies were allocated to a number of networks, including Roxy FM, RMF Classic,
and Eska. Euronet is introducing a new network with jazz called Chilli Zet that will appeal to the 25- to 44-year-old demographic group. Radio PiN has bought Radio Traffic and will expand from three markets to six markets in 2009. Digital radio is gaining ground at the expense of terrestrial radio, while online listening is growing, with the rise in broadband penetration. Advertising revenues are projected to fall from $209 million to $203 million in 2013. In Saudi Arabia/Pan Arab, new private stations have propelled radio advertising. Private stations were introduced in Egypt in 2003, and new private stations have been launched in Jordan and other countries. We project radio advertising in Saudi Arabia/Pan Arab to increase at a 2.4 percent compound annual rate during the next five years. The introduction and expansion of digital radio and the exposure of radio to more listeners through the Internet will help offset ongoing migration of advertising to other platforms on the Internet. In the near term, the worldwide economic crisis will result in significant declines in radio advertising in 2009 and 2010. The decline will moderate in 2011 before turning positive in 2012 and 2013. We project radio advertising in Western Europe to decrease at a 2.5 percent compound annual rate to $5.7 billion in 2013 from $6.4 billion in 2008. In Central and Eastern Europe, we expect the decline to average 4.4 percent compounded annually from $1.1 billion in 2008 to $873 million in 2013. Radio advertising in Middle East/Africa will rise from $335 million in 2008 to $347 million in 2013, a 0.7 percent gain compounded annually.
414
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Association of Communication Agencies of Russia, Fondation Statistique Suisse en Publicit, InfoAdex, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Radio Advertising Bureau, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates, ZAW
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through 2006. The government has since announced it will begin restoring funds to public radio. Funding increased in 2007, and we project a 0.9 percent compound annual expansion through 2013. In Poland, license fee revenue has been declining, and legislation has been introduced that could abolish the fee in 2009 and replace it with a new system of financing from public tax revenues and from other private broadcasters. As of this writing, no definitive action has been taken, and we assume a public license fee will remain. Revenues fell sharply in 2008 and are projected to fall again in 2009 to $52 million. We are projecting that they will be flat for the remainder of the forecast period, at $51 million. Spain, Russia, Hungary, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia/Pan Arab do not have public radio license fees. We project total public radio license fees to rise to $11.4 billion in 2013, up 1.6 percent on a compound annual basis from $10.5 billion in 2008.
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Note: Figures in the Netherlands reflect government contributions from general tax revenues. At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Ofcom, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
417
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Asia Pacific
Radio advertising will increase by 0.6 percent compounded annually to $5 billion in 2013 from $4.8 billion in 2008. Public radio license fees will rise at a 1.4 percent compound annual rate to $2.6 billion in 2013 from $2.4 billion in 2008. The overall radio market will increase from $7.2 billion in 2008 to $7.6 billion in 2013, a 0.9 percent compound annual rate. Out-of-home advertising will be the fastest-growing component, rising to $11.5 billion by 2013 from $9.7 billion in 2008, a 3.5 percent compound annual increase.
Overview
We project the radio and out-of home market will increase from $16.9 billion in 2008 to $19.1 billion in 2013, growing at a 2.4 percent compound annual rate.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Japan is the dominant territory in the region, at $9.0 billion in 2008, 53 percent of the total. The PRC is next, at $3.6 billion, followed by Australia at $1.2 billion. These three countries constituted 82 percent of the entire market. Japans radio advertising market is in a long-term decline. Poor economic conditions are expected to cause steeper decreases in radio and out-of-home advertising in 2009 and 2010. Starting in 2011, both segments of the market are expected to show gains. Out-of-home advertising will show greater growth due to new technologies that are boosting that segment of the market, and we expect the overall market to decline 0.5 percent compounded annually to $8.7 billion in 2013. We expect revenues to decline at a 0.9 percent compound annual rate in South Korea to $794 million as a result of a share decrease in 2009. Excluding Japan and South Korea, growth in the rest of the region will average 6.0 percent compounded annually. Japan and South Korea together constituted 58 percent of total spending in Asia Pacific in 2008. By 2013, their combined share will drop to 50 percent.
We expect India to be the fastest-growing territory during the next five years, fueled by large increases in radio from new FM stations and an advancing outof-home market. Growth will average 14.1 percent compounded annually. Continued economic growth will boost spending by 8.5 percent compounded annually in the PRC. The decline in radio advertising will more than offset the increase in out-of-home advertising in Australia over the next five years, resulting in a slight, overall 0.3 percent annual decrease, with revenues remaining at $1.2 billion throughout the period.
420
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Out-of-home advertising
The expansion in out-of-home advertising in the major cities in the PRC is being driven by improvements in the airport, subway, and other infrastructure that afford attractive locations and prime sites for advertisers. Out-of-home advertising is the third-largest medium, after television and print, and is expected to increase its market share over the forecast period. Out-ofhome advertising growth is concentrated in the areas that have high levels of consumer spending, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou constituting the three major markets. The industry is highly scattered, with thousands of local operators. Through a set of acquisitions, four operators have become national in scope: Clear Media, Media Nation, Media Partners International, and Tom.com. Clear Media has a monopoly in bus shelters in Shanghai and Guangzhou. Although overall advertising increased dramatically in
2008 because of the Olympics, out-of-home advertising decreased because of government regulatory policies eliminating numerous billboards. While the overall growth prospects in the PRC remain very solid, it should be noted that local municipal authorities are constantly reviewing the impact of the growth in the out-of-home market from an environmental aspect and periodically announce local regulations to control the sector in terms of new sites that will be permitted. We expect the out-ofhome market to increase by 9.9 percent compounded annually, reaching $4.1 billion in 2013, up from $2.5 billion in 2008. New technologies are stimulating the out-of-home market in Japan, with digital and interactive signs gaining market share. Digital signs provide an opportunity for operators to sell a single sign to
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a rotating number of advertisers, thus achieving significant revenue increases. Interactive signs permit passersby with Bluetooth-enabled handsets to receive product information or coupons directly from the signs. Although out-of-home advertising is expected to show a modest, 0.4 percent decrease on an annual basis from $5.2 billion in 2008 to $5.1 billion in 2013, its market share is expected to grow relative to that of radio advertising, which is expected to decline by 4.4 percent on a compound annual basis through 2013. We expect out-of-home advertising in India to grow by 12.5 percent on a compound annual basis, reaching $616 million in 2013, up from $342 million in 2008. Outof-home advertising is very fragmented in India, with many small operators rather than the major international companies controlling the market. JCDecaux, the number one OOH operator in Europe and number two worldwide, announced its entry into the Indian market by signing an exclusive 15-year contract with the New Delhi Municipal Council. JCDecaux plans to build and operate 200 bus shelters in the capital and to seek partnerships with local companies so as to expand its presence. Digital signs are becoming popular, providing much of the growth in the industry. Further outdoor opportunities are also arising from the building of new airports and the building of metropolitan light railways in many Indian cities. New malls and cinema multiplexes will also spur the market. Out-of-home advertising in Australia rose by 39 percent during the past four years. Growth is being fueled by transit ads, which take advantage of a captive
audience, and by large billboards, street furniture, and video networks in shopping centers. In 2009, the industry will introduce its new audience measurement system called MOVE (Measurement of Outdoor Visibility and Exposure). MOVE will cover all outdoor audience environments, including shopping centers and airport interiors, in addition to traditional billboards. Better measuring methods usually translate into higher revenues, as they validate advertisers expenditures in the media. Out-of-home advertising is expected to be one of the stronger media over the next few years. Due to the poor worldwide economy, spending will decline in 2009 and 2010 before returning to positive growth, with the five-year increase averaging 1.3 percent on an annual basis and reaching $405 million in 2013. In South Korea, a ban on roadside billboards led to a 20 percent drop in spending in 2007. The Government Regulation Reform Committee changed course in 2008 and eliminated some of the regulations that have affected out-of-home advertising in the past, resulting in a slight increase in 2008. Revenues are expected to decline in 2009 and to show a modest decrease through 2013, dropping to $490 million from $503 million in 2008. In the Philippines, an expected relaxation of the ban on political advertising will lead to a jump in spending in 2010 related to the presidential election. We project out-of-home advertising for Asia Pacific as a whole to expand at a 3.5 percent compound annual rate to $11.5 billion in 2013 from $9.7 billion in 2008.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Dentsu, Outdoor Advertising Association of New Zealand, Outdoor Media Association Inc. of Australia, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, State Administration of Industry and Commerce, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Radio advertising
With the exception of the PRC, Indonesia, and Thailand, radio reaches more than 90 percent of the population in Asia Pacific. Following drops in 2006 and 2007, the time spent listening in an average week stabilized in 2008. Japan was the largest radio advertising market in Asia Pacific, at $1.5 billion in 2008. Advertising has fallen steadily during the past five years, and we expect that pattern to continue as the economy remains weak and the Internet attracts advertisers from radio. We project spending to fall at a 4.4 percent compound annual rate to $1.2 billion in 2013. The PRC was the second-largest radio advertising market in 2008, with revenues of $1.1 billion. Radio penetration is growing as the number of cars on the road increases significantly, although the average time spent listening is on a downtrend as other media capture audience attention. Radios reach in four major cities increased from 53 to 66 percent during the past year, while average listening per week declined from 7.3 to 5.4 hours. The government plans to introduce digital audio broadcasting in 2010. Radio advertising will increase to $1.4 billion in 2013, a 4.6 percent compound annual increase from 2008. The PRC will supplant Japan as the largest market in the region. Australia is the third-largest radio advertising market in Asia Pacific, with $853 million in revenues in 2008. All of the major commercial broadcasters will join national public broadcasters ABC and SBS in the August launch of digital services in the six state capital citiesSydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, and Hobartfollowed by further rollouts to regional and rural areas. Austereo Group, which operates the Today and Triple M national networks, launched a new online station, Radar, in December 2008. Radar, playing only unsigned musical acts, is also being broadcast in Sydneys digital test market and can be picked up by the few digital sets already in use. The improved sound quality of digital radio is expected to make the medium more attractive. Digital radio gives broadcasters the ability to provide more niche programming because more channels can be broadcast over the same spectrum. Australia will be using the more advanced DAB+ system, which promises higher sound quality
and wider use of visual features and greater station capacity. It will remain to be seen whether advertisers flock to the new format as they wait for a critical mass of listeners, which may take several years due to the cost of replacing analog sets. Listening to radio on the Internet is popular in Australia, and the added reach from Internet distribution is helping attract cross-platform advertising. Advertising revenues in Australia are expected to decline through 2010 before turning around for the remainder of the forecast period. Revenues are expected to decline by 1.1 percent on a compound annual basis, declining from $853 million in 2008 to $807 million in 2013. Radio advertising is surging in India, having more than tripled during the past four years. The FM market was deregulated in 2005, and more than 205 stations have been added since then, providing additional inventory that will continue to fuel radio advertising. The latest phase of deregulation will permit stations to air current affairs and new programs that drive growth. Total listening has increased in some cities to as high as 22 hours per week. Private FM radio stations account for around 70 percent of advertising dollars, with public broadcaster All India Radio accounting for the rest. Radios share of the advertising market has grown in recent years and is expected to increase during the next five years. We project increases to average 16.7 percent compounded annually through 2013, reaching $411 million, up from $190 million in 2008. In Malaysia, radio advertising grew by 13.3 percent in 2008 because there were a number of special events last year, including the general election in March, Euro 2008 in June, and the Beijing Olympics in August, which helped propel average listening to 22 hours a week. Although radio will remain an important medium, with vernacular stations increasingly popular, the weakened economy combined with a lack of major events in 2009 will lead to a slowing in the growth of advertising revenues. We expect revenues to grow 5.3 percent on a compound annual rate through 2013. We project radio advertising for Asia Pacific as a whole to increase by 0.6 percent on an annual basis to $5 billion from $4.8 billion in 2008 as declines in 2009 and 2010 will be offset by increases in the later years.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Commercial Economic Advisory Service of Australia, Dentsu, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, State Administration of Industry and Commerce, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
At $2.2 billion, Japan accounted for 92 percent of the regions radio license fees in 2008. South Korea at $139 million was the only other territory with fees in excess of $100 million. We project spending to rise from $2.4 billion in 2008 to $2.6 billion in 2013, a 1.4 percent compound annual increase.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. There is a license fees system in place, but there is no law requiring households to pay. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
The radio market as a whole, including public license fees and advertising, will expand from $7.2 billion in 2008 to a projected $7.6 billion in 2013, a 0.9 percent compound annual increase.
426
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Latin America
Overview
We expect radio and out-of-home to grow at a 1.6 percent compound annual rate, rising from $1.9 billion in 2008 to $2.0 billion in 2013. Radio advertising will be flat, increasing by a modest, 0.3 percent compounded annually to $1.2 billion in 2013 from a comparable level in 2008. Out-of-home spending will increase at a 3.5 percent compound annual rate to $859 million in 2013 from $723 million in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Colombia is the largest market in Latin America, at $541 million, with Mexico and Brazil at $494 million and $493 million, respectively. The Mexican figures represent only radio advertising, as we have no information on the out-
of-home industry. Together, these territories constituted 81 percent of total spending in 2008. Inflation will lead to compound annual double-digit increases during the next five years in Argentina.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Does not include out-of-home in 2004. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Radio advertising
Unlike the situation in other regions, radio advertising in Latin America grew moderately, by 7.4 percent in 2008, and has grown by almost 60 percent since 2004. Strong economic growth stimulated the overall advertising market, and radio benefited along with other media. The Internet, which competes with radio in other markets, has been less of a threat in Latin America because of low penetration rates. With broadband penetration now surging, the Internet is becoming more attractive to advertisers. As broadband expands, advertisers will be allocating a growing portion of their ad budgets to the Internet, with a portion of that increase diverted from radio. The effects of the worldwide economic turmoil are catching up with Latin America, and radio advertising is expected to show its first decline in recent years. Revenues are expected to decline in 2009 and 2010 before returning to slower growth in 2011 and then to more significant increases in 2012 and 2013.
In Mexico, a new law was passed by the government allowing AM radio stations to broadcast on the FM band. In Venezuela, new government regulation prohibits advertising alcohol or cigarettes on radio, thereby eliminating revenue sources. Radio will remain an attractive medium because of its large reach. The introduction of HD radio should make the medium more appealing. HD provides better sound quality than standard radio does, and it allows stations to transmit additional signals, which have the potential for generating an additional advertising stream. HD radio is available in Brazil and is expected to be introduced in Mexico. For the region as whole, radio advertising will be flat, at $1.2 billion, in 2013 after recovering from declines in 2009 and 2010.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Out-of-home advertising
Out-of-home advertising grew significantly across the region in 2005 and 2006. Growth slowed in 2007 and 2008 as a result of a cutback in Brazil. In So Paulo, as part of a Clean City law, the city eliminated billboards, neon signs, and digital panels. The demolition of the signs caused an overall decline in Brazils out-of home revenues because So Paulo accounted for more than a third of Brazils total outof-home market. It is possible that Rio de Janeiro will institute a similar law, causing a further cutback in the industry. As a result, we expect declines in 2009 and 2010 until the industry stabilizes in 2011 and advertisers switch their resources to other permissible forms of out-of-home advertising such as street furniture. Once this impact has been felt, the long-term positive drivers of out-of-home will reassert themselves, and street furniture will continue to grow once the slowdown ends. As a result, we expect that by 2013, out-of-home spending in Brazil will surpass its 2008 level, growing by 2.4 percent compounded annually to $169 million.
In Argentina, out-of-home more than tripled during the past four years as the economic recovery fueled spending. Out-of-home advertising has been gaining market share. We expect growth to slow in 2009 and 2010 as a result of the economic turmoil and then to return to double-digit growth during 201213, with increases averaging 12.4 percent on a compound annual basis during the next five years, reaching $284 million in 2013. In Venezuela, a small market with a rapidly growing economy and relatively high inflation, out-of-home advertising rose by 11.1 percent in 2008. Transit ads on buses and trucks are gaining market share. Additionally, there is a growing market for indoor advertising in malls. We expect modest declines in 2009 and 2010 before a return to double-digit growth in 2012 and 2013, reaching $23 million in 2013, a 2.8 percent annual growth rate from 2008 levels. There is growing use of buses and trucks for outdoor advertising as well as use of shopping malls. We project out-of-home spending in Latin America to increase at a 3.5 percent compound annual rate, rising to $859 million in 2013 from $723 million in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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432 Summary 433 North America 440 Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA) 450 Asia Pacific 458 Latin America
Summary
Principal drivers
The economy will be the principal driver, leading to steep decreases in the near term and a subsequent rebound when economic conditions improve. Migration of advertising and readers from print to digital will dampen print advertising over the long run while benefiting an emerging digital market. Broadband household growth and an expanding mobile access market will also fuel digital advertising. Newsstand sales will be particularly vulnerable to the economic cycle in many countries during the next two years, and subscription sales will be at risk as well when they are due for renewal. Rising discretionary income during the latter part of the forecast period will lead to a rebound in circulation spending.
Data for the global consumer magazine publishing market by region and for the global consumer magazine publishing market by component can be found within the Executive Summary on page 46.
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North America
Print advertising will be the most severely affected by the economy, falling by 22.7 percent through 2010. Print advertising will begin to pick up as the economy recovers, rising by a projected 14.2 percent from 2010 to 2013. Spending in 2013 will total an estimated $11.8 billion, a 2.5 percent compound annual decline from $13.4 billion in 2008. Advertising on magazine Web sites and mobile sites will reach $1.9 billion in 2013, a 15.5 percent compound annual increase from $909 million in 2008. Circulation spending will decrease at a 2.8 percent compound annual rate, falling from $10.2 billion in 2008 to $8.9 billion in 2013.
Overview
Spending on consumer magazines will decline by 16.7 percent during the next two years, reflecting the impact of the recession. The market will then post a modest recovery, expanding by 10.5 percent during the subsequent three years to $22.6 billion in 2013, a figure that will be 1.7 percent lower on a compound annual basis from $24.5 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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We expect comparable patterns in both the United States and Canada during the next five years: doubledigit declines in 2009; a further, low-single-digit decrease in 2010; and modest but accelerating growth during 201113.
During the entire 20092013 period, the United States will decline at a 1.7 percent compound annual rate from $23.3 billion in 2008 to $21.4 billion in 2013. Canada will decrease to $1.1 billion in 2013 from $1.2 billion in 2008, a 1.1 percent decline compounded annually.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Print advertising
Consumer magazines have been one of the more cyclically sensitive of the advertising segments. When the economy is expanding, advertisers often supplement their national campaignstypically centered on televisionwith magazine buys, used for extending their reach. When the economy is sluggish or contracting, advertisers often cut back on their magazine buys while trying to maintain their presence on television. Consequently, magazines tend to be more affected by the economic cycle than television does. In 2008, the declining economy had a major adverse impact on consumer magazine print advertising. Print advertising in the United States fell by 7.9 percent; in Canada, the decrease was 5.1 percent. In addition to the economy, the market in the United States was
further hurt by the loss of tobacco advertising by R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co., which discontinued its print advertising in 2008. The real estate collapse hurt magazines serving the home market, leading to several high-profile closings in the United Statesamong them, Country Home, Domino, and O at Home. In other developments, Mens Vogue was folded into Vogue; CosmoGirl was folded into Seventeen; and Time discontinued its Canadian edition. All told, more than 500 magazines closed in North America in 2008. The weak auto market led to double-digit declines in automotive advertising, a key advertising category for most titles. In Canada, automotive advertising in consumer magazines plunged by 27 percent in 2008.
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Declining newsstand circulation was yet another problem for consumer magazines, particularly celebrity titles that rely on newsstand circulation. Lower circulation reduced the rate base for many publications and cut advertising revenues. A major exception to that trend was Canadas Hello! whose newsstand sales rose by 50 percent in the second half of the year even as total newsstand sales in Canada fell by 24 percent during that period. In the United States, second-half newsstand sales declined by 11 percent. Ongoing migration from print to digital formats is yet another impediment to the print market. A number of publishers recorded substantial increases in their Web site advertising. The gains were not nearly enough to offset declines in print advertising. Those adverse trends gained momentum in the second half of 2008, and we expect that a full-year impact in 2009 will lead to much steeper declines in consumer magazine print advertising. Consumers are cutting back on their spending, which is reducing the return on the advertising investment. Advertisers are pulling back on their outlays because advertising is now much less productive in generating sales than it was during 200407, when consumer spending was growing. Falling disposable income and reductions in discretionary purchases will continue to cut into newsstand sales and will begin to reduce subscription sales when renewals are due. The decrease in circulation will make it even harder to sell advertising. We expect print advertising in the United States to plunge by nearly 19 percent in 2009, and we look for a 15 percent decrease in Canada. We expect the declines to continue in 2010, mitigated by more favorable comparisons with a very weak 2009 and by
the expectation that the economies in both countries will bottom out. We project a 4.9 percent drop in 2010 in the United States and a 6.7 percent drop in Canada. The projected declines could lead to more magazine closings during the next few years. We expect advertisers to return to consumer magazines once economic conditions improve. The glossy paper and high color quality make magazines a good platform for fashion, autos, and other advertising categories. Special-interest titles allow advertisers to target likely customers more effectively than most media do. We look for the economy to stabilize in 2011 and to expand during 201213. Consumer magazines should benefit from the upside of the cycle as advertisers again look to enhance their national campaigns with magazine buys in a market where consumers are again spending. We project low-single-digit growth in 2011, improvements to mid-single-digit gains in 2012, and a return to high-single-digit growth in 2013. Although we look for growth in 2013 to be comparable to the increases in 2004, we do not expect the recovery to be large enough to offset the declines during the next two years. We project print advertising in the United States to decline at a 2.5 percent compound annual rate to $11.2 billion in 2013 from $12.7 billion in 2008. In Canada, we look for declines averaging 2.3 percent compounded annually from $653 million in 2008 to $581 million in 2013. We project consumer magazine print advertising for North America as a whole to fall to $11.8 billion in 2013 from $13.4 billion in 2008, a 2.5 percent decrease on a compound annual basis.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Leading National Advertisers, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
435
Sources: Leading National Advertisers, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Digital advertising
The one bright spot in the consumer magazine market is digital advertising. Although still relatively modest, at less than $1 billion, digital advertising more than doubled in 2007 and more than doubled again in 2008. Magazine Web sites attract more than 75 million people in the average month in North America and are attracting advertisers. Time Inc. generated more than $200 million in advertising across its various magazine Web sites in 2008 and was the industry leader. Magazine Web sites routinely feature video content, podcasts, and other audio content that is not available in print formats. The sites make use of the features of the Internet that set it apart from print, and those efforts are generating increased revenue. Elle, for example, launched a virtual magazine on its Stardoll Web site and introduced an avatar boutique that sells clothing in the United States. In Canada, Cosmopolitan launched Cosmo TV, which offers video clips of fashion shoots. Magazines also are expanding into mobile sites. New York magazine in the United States has a new mobile site that features blogs and sells banner ads. Other titles such as Car and Driver, Marie Claire, and Seventeen have mobile sites as well. The growing number of mobile access subscribers will expand this component of the market. There were around 10 million mobile Internet access subscribers in North America in 2008, a figure we expect will rise by a factor of 10 to nearly 100 million by 2013. Growth in mobile access will drive mobile advertising, including advertising on mobile magazine Web sites.
2010
2011
2012
2013
In the near term, decreased advertising spending in general will affect digital advertising, although digital share gains will sustain growth in 2009. We project digital advertising growth in the United States to drop to 4.3 percent in 2009. We expect an 11 percent increase in 2010 and gains in excess of 20 percent annually during 201213. Digital advertising in the United States will total an estimated $1.8 billion in 2013, a 15.1 percent compound annual increase from $889 million in 2008. The digital advertising market is less developed in Canada, generating an estimated $20 million in 2008, a $6-million increase from 2007. We expect growth to drop to only $2 million in 2009. We look for faster increases thereafter as this market develops and as the economy improves. We expect growth to rise to 27 percent in 2010 and to exceed 35 percent annually during 201113. Digital advertising will total an estimated $73 million in 2013, a 29.6 percent compound annual increase from a small base. We project overall digital advertising in magazine online and mobile sites in North America to increase to $1.9 billion in 2013 from $909 million in 2008, a 15.5 percent compound annual increase.
436
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
In Canada, the digital share will rise to 11 percent in 2013 from 3 percent in 2008. Total consumer magazine advertising will decline at a 0.6 percent compound annual rate to $654 million in 2013 from $673 million in 2008. Total consumer magazine advertising in North America as a whole will decline from $14.3 billion in 2008 to $13.6 billion in 2013, a 0.9 percent decrease compounded annually.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
437
Circulation
The economy is also having a significant adverse impact on consumer magazine circulation. Single-copy purchases at newsstands are discretionary purchases that tend to fall when discretionary income is tight. Unit sales in both the United States and Canada fell at double-digit rates during the last half of 2008. Subscription circulation was relatively steady in 2008 in part because subscribers had subscriptions of a year or more, and relatively few cancel before the subscription ends. A significant portion of the subscriber base represents committed readers who will stay with a magazine for years. The marketing costs in attracting subscribers can be very expensive, and subscribers who are gained through special offers often do not last. Consequently, the return on that investment can be poor and publishers sometimes look to trim such so-called expensive subscribers and instead focus on maintaining their core readers. This was particularly the case in Canada in 2008, and a drop in subscription circulation contributed to the overall decline in circulation spending. Circulation spending fell by 5.6 percent in Canada in 2008 and by 2.2 percent in the United States. We look for steeper declines in 2009 in both countries. We expect the double-digit decline in newsstand circulation during the last half of 2008 to persist for a full year in 2009. We also look for a portion of the subscriber base to not renew their subscriptions in order to save money. Meanwhile, postal rate increases will put pressure on publishers to raise prices. In the United States, postal rates for magazines will rise by nearly 4 percent in 2009.
In Canada, Canada Post stopped contributing to the Publications Assistance Program (PAP) in early 2009. Its contribution represented 25 percent of the C$15 million (US$14 million) PAP total. That cutback will be restored in the new federal budget that will maintain PAP at its current level until a new magazine fund is in place. There is also a new Canada Periodical Fund, which will provide C$75.5 million (US$70.8 million) to support publishers. Over the long run, that support will help keep prices in check and will eventually lead to morestabilized circulation. In the near term, single-copy sales are falling faster in Canada than in the United States, and we expect Canada to experience a sharper, 9.1 percent decrease in circulation spending in 2009 compared with a projected 8.3 percent decline in the United States. Thereafter, we expect Canada to fare somewhat better: falling by 2 percent in 2010, flattening in 2011, and posting modest increases during 201213. Circulation spending in Canada in 2013 will total an estimated $457 million, down 1.9 percent on a compound annual basis from $504 million in 2008. We expect circulation spending declines in the United States to persist through 2012. The spate of magazine closings will contribute to the longer-term decline as lost readers may be difficult to recapture. Ultimately, an improved economic environment will limit newsstand circulation declines and will support subscriptions. We expect circulation spending decreases to moderate during 201012 and project an increase in 2013 of 1 percent. Circulation spending in the United States will drop from $9.7 billion in 2008 to $8.4 billion in 2013, a 2.8 percent decrease compounded annually.
438
Despite growing use of the Internet to read magazineseither as a source of information or for entertainmentsubscription circulation has been relatively steady. We expect that once the economy improves, consumers will resume their use of
magazines, particularly magazines that serve special interests not routinely addressed in other media. For North America as a whole, circulation spending will decrease to $8.9 billion in 2013 from $10.2 billion in 2008, a 2.8 percent compound annual decline.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Magazine Publishers of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
439
The near-term decline will center on print advertising, which we project will fall by 18.9 percent during 200910. As the economy recovers, print advertising will turn around from 2010 to 2013 and expand by 9.5 percent to $12.1 billion, representing a 2.3 percent compound annual decrease from $13.6 billion in 2008. Digital advertising also will be affected by the recession and will decline by 5.9 percent in 2009. We expect a rebound in 2010, with spending rising to $853 million by 2013, a 24.1 percent compound annual increase from a small base. The gain in digital will not fully offset the decline in print, and total consumer magazine advertising will fall at a 1.4 percent compound annual rate from $13.9 billion in 2008 to $13 billion in 2013. Circulation spending will decline at low-single-digit rates during the next three years and then increase by 3.5 percent cumulatively during 201213. Spending in 2013 will total $22 billion from $22.3 billion in 2008, a 0.3 percent decrease compounded annually.
Overview
The consumer magazine publishing market in EMEA will decline by 9.8 percent during the next two years, reflecting the impact of the economic downturn. The market will then expand by 7 percent from 2010 to 2013, not quite making up for lost ground. Spending will total an estimated $35 billion in 2013, down 0.7 percent on a compound annual basis from $36.2 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
440
Western Europe fell by 2.1 percent in 2008, and we expect an additional 9.2 percent decrease during the next two years, followed by a 6.1 percent rebound during the subsequent three years. During the entire forecast period, spending will fall at a 0.7 percent compound annual rate to $30.1 billion in 2013 from $31.3 billion in 2008. Growth in Central and Eastern Europe slowed to 3.4 percent in 2008 from high single digits from 2004 to 2007. We expect decreases during the next two years totaling 14.9 percent followed by a 12.4 percent recovery during the subsequent three years. Spending will total $3.8 billion in 2013 from $4 billion in 2008, a 0.9 percent decline compounded annually. Middle East/Africa experienced a slowdown in 2008 to 2.4 percent following three years of double-digit growth. During the next two years, the market will decline by 6.5 percent and then increase by 14.1 percent to $1.1 billion in 2013, up 1.3 percent on a compound annual basis from $1 billion in 2008. France had the largest market in 2008, at $7.2 billion, followed by Germany at $6.4 billion, the UK at $5.1 billion, and Italy at $3.8 billion. Together, these four countries constituted 62 percent of EMEAs consumer magazine market. The French market fell for the second consecutive year in 2008, hurt in 2007 by a shift in retail advertising from print to television following the lifting of the ban on the advertising of retail brands on television and in 2008 by the declining economy. We expect three additional years of decline, the result of a weak economy and loss of share to online media. Spending in 2013 of $6.8 billion will be 1.1 percent lower on a compound annual basis from 2008.
Germany also declined for the second consecutive year in 2008 and fell during three of the past four years. Circulation has been declining as readers are going online, and the economy is hurting the advertising market. We expect two additional years of decline, which will not be offset by a modest recovery during 201113. Spending will fall at a 1.3 percent compound annual rate to $6 billion in 2013. The UK market has been declining during the past three years, and we look for three additional years of decline. Mens magazines, which stimulated growth during 2004 and 2005, suffered circulation and advertising declines during the past two years. The customer magazine market, consisting of titles commissioned by companies to promote their brands, remains strong. Most of the leading titles in the UK are customer magazines. The UK will record a 1.2 percent compound annual decrease during the next five years to $4.8 billion in 2013. Italy recorded a 2.8 percent decline in 2008, and we look for two additional years of decline totaling 10.8 percent. Most of that decrease will be recovered during the subsequent three years, and spending in 2013 of $3.7 billion will be 0.5 percent lower on a compound annual basis from 2008. Economies in Central and Eastern Europe are also collapsing, which is affecting the consumer magazine market. We look for double-digit declines in Romania, Russia, and Turkey in 2009. A number of new launches in Romania and Turkey and an expanding digital market in Russia will contribute to turnarounds during 201113. Saudi Arabia/Pan Arab is being hurt by declining oil revenues, which we expect will contribute to an 11.2 percent decrease during the next two years.
441
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
442
Circulation
The recession also is cutting into the circulation market, particularly for titles relying on newsstand sales. Newsstand circulation is heavily dependent on impulse buys and is affected by discretionary income that is now declining in most countries. Magazines themselves are luxury purchases that are hurt in a recession. In the UK, mens magazines have experienced sharp circulation declines for several years that worsened in 2008, while womens titles, which are more dependent on subscription sales, have held up relatively well. BBC Magazines in a late 2008 promotion reduced its newsstand prices by half in order to maintain unit circulation and the advertising rate base. Covermounts, where publishers give away CDs and other products, are becoming more prevalent in magazines to help maintain circulation. Meanwhile, cover price increases for other titles are helping sustain newsstand revenue. Those efforts helped reduce the decrease in circulation revenue in the UK to 1 percent in 2008 from declines averaging 3.7 percent during 200607. We expect circulation spending to fall at a 0.1 percent compound annual rate through 2013. In general, newsstand sales are falling throughout EMEA. Subscription sales are holding up in the near term, although renewals are likely to fall during the next two years because of the economy. Promotions and new launches will help limit the erosion. In addition to the examples cited in Central and Eastern Europe, there also have been launches in Western Europe. Examples include OK! magazine in Germany and in the German-speaking sections of Austria and Switzerland; Flow, a womens title, in the Netherlands; a Spanish-language version of Vanity Fair in Spain; and Knitter in the UK.
New titles and stepped-up promotions will not be strong enough to offset the impact of the economy. Overall circulation spending fell by 1 percent in Western Europe in 2008 and by 0.9 percent in EMEA as a whole. We expect circulation spending declines in Western Europe during the next three years and in Central and Eastern Europe and in Middle East/Africa during the next two years. Improved economic conditions should provide a boost to newsstand sales during 201213, and we look for overall circulation spending to increase in each area during that period. Gains in Western Europe during 201213 will not offset near-term declines, and spending will fall at a 0.3 percent compound annual rate. In Central and Eastern Europe, circulation spending in 2013 will remain 0.1 percent lower compounded annually from its 2008 level, and in Middle East/Africa, circulation spending in 2013 will be higher than in 2008by a mere 0.1 percent on a compound annual basis. Circulation spending in EMEA overall will decrease at a 0.3 percent compound annual rate from $22.3 billion in 2008 to $22 billion in 2013.
443
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: German Association of Magazine Publishers, Periodical Publishers Association, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
444
Print advertising
Print advertising fell by 4.7 percent in Western Europe in 2008 and by 2.8 percent in all of EMEA. The market is being hurt by several concurrent developments. The migration of readers from print to digital media has adversely affected print advertising in Western Europe during the past five years. Even when the economy was expanding, print advertising in consumer magazines averaged low-single-digit increases. The economic decline that gained momentum in the second half of 2008 had an adverse effect on advertising in all media and a particular impact on consumer magazines. Consumer magazines serve special interests and contain advertising targeting those special interests. Those areas tend to be discretionary purchases that are among the first to be reduced when the economy declines. The home market, for example, has been particularly hurt by the real estate decline, and advertising in magazines serving that market has fallen sharply. In the UK, House & Garden, InStyle Home, and Media Home each closed. Consumer magazines themselves are discretionary purchases that are subject to the economic cycle. Declining newsstand unit sales reduced the reach of print ads and further hurt the print advertising market. The combination of each of these adverse trends will lead to a projected 14.9 percent decrease in print advertising in Western Europe in 2009 and a further, 4.7 percent drop in 2010, resulting in a three-year cumulative decrease of nearly 23 percent from 2007. While the long-term trend away from print will continue, we expect the economy to begin to expand in 2011 and to improve during 201213. Print advertising in Western Europe will hold steady in 2011 and rebound during the subsequent two years, helped by a pickup in discretionary income, newsstand sales, and growing purchases of products advertised in consumer magazines. We look for a 2.6 percent rise in 2012 and a 4.9 percent increase in 2013. The 2013 gain will represent a rebound in spending and not a sustainable rate of growth, which we expect will revert to lowsingle-digit increases thereafter. Despite the rebound during the latter part of the forecast period, print
advertising in Western Europe in 2013 at $9.6 billion will be 2.7 percent lower on a compound annual basis from $11 billion in 2008. In Central and Eastern Europe and Middle East/Africa, by contrast, digital migration played less of a role during the past five years, and more-robust economic growth in those areas led to double-digit annual increases in consumer magazine print advertising through 2007. Growth in 2008 in these areas of EMEA slowed to single-digit gains. Central and Eastern Europe is now experiencing precipitous economic declines, which we expect will translate into a 19.4 percent decline in 2009. In Central and Eastern Europe, we anticipate a more modest, 3.6 percent decrease in 2010 as the economy bottoms out, and accelerating gains thereafter, including a 9 percent rise in 2013. Nevertheless, spending in 2013 of $1.8 billion will be 2.1 percent lower compounded annually from $2 billion in 2008. Despite the current adverse environment, a number of new launches in Central and Eastern Europe are anticipating a long-term recovery. In Romania, Villa Design and InStyle Romania are new titles serving the currently declining home market, and Car and Auto Bild are new automotive titles serving that depressed sector. In Turkey, Inc. magazine, a Turkish-language version of Newsweek, and launches of Parents, Womens Health, and Food and Travel are among the new titles that the publishers hope will ultimately benefit from an economic recovery. Time Out Budapest and Piknik are new titles in Hungary; Moje Zeme is a new launch in the Czech Republic; and Tatler entered the Russian market. In Middle East/Africa, the economic decline is not as severe, and we project a more modest, 4.4 percent decrease in 2009 followed by a 3.8 percent drop in 2010. The expectation of improved economic conditions and a recovery in oil prices will lead to midto high-single-digit increases during 201213. This area will be the only one in EMEA where we expect print advertising to be higher in 2013 than in 2008. Print advertising in 2013 will total an estimated $700 million, a 1.8 percent compound annual increase from $641 million in 2008. For EMEA as a whole, print advertising in consumer magazines will total an estimated $12.1 billion in 2013, down 2.3 percent compounded annually from $13.6 billion in 2008.
445
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Advertising Association, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates, ZAW
446
Digital advertising
Digital advertising on magazine Web sites and on mobile sites is an emerging revenue stream in EMEA. With readers migrating to the Internet, advertisers are following them, and magazine Web sites are among the sites they target. The long-term shift from print to digital that is hurting the print market is benefiting the digital market. Magazine publishers are recouping on their digital sites some of the losses in print advertising. In the UK, the leading magazines experienced a 30 percent increase in traffic on their Web sites. Magazine sites offer features not available in print. For example, IPC and Clinique introduced Marie Claire Makeovers that enable users to view new looks on their computers. The Internet also provides e-commerce opportunities. Elle launched a branded shopping site. In Italy, RCS launched Leiweb, targeting women by using content for RCS magazines. In Russia, Sanoma Magazines launched a mobile phone version of Cosmopolitan that users can access by sending a text message. With a majority of households in a number of countries on broadband, downloading graphics is no longer a problem, and enhanced features are now feasible. A growing mobile access subscriber base is fueling growth in mobile sites and mobile advertising. The number of mobile Internet access subscribers in EMEA increased by 44 percent in 2008, and we expect the mobile subscriber base to more than triple during the next five years to 285 million in 2013 from 86 million in 2008. Growth in the mobile market will boost mobile traffic on magazine sites and fuel digital advertising.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Digital advertising rose by 58 percent in 2008. The adverse economy will dampen digital advertising in 2009, and we project a 6 percent decline. Thereafter, we expect that the rise in traffic and a less severe economic environment will lead to a return to doubledigit annual growth. We project that digital advertising will increase to $853 million in 2013, a 24.1 percent compound annual increase from $290 million in 2008.
447
200913 CAGR 26.4 30.3 32.0 32.0 24.2 25.0 47.6 32.0 24.3 27.7 20.1 32.0 28.0 24.6 27.9 15.7 24.1 29.7 14.9 20.1 10.8 23.2 24.1
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
448
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
449
Asia Pacific
Print consumer magazine advertising will be hardesthit by the economy, falling by a cumulative 18.6 percent during the next three years. Increases during 201213 will not offset that decline. Print advertising will decrease from $5.5 billion in 2008 to $4.9 billion in 2013, a 2.4 percent compound annual decrease. Digital advertising on magazine Web sites and mobile magazine sites distributed to mobile phones will total an estimated $314 million in 2013 from $120 million in 2008, a 21.2 percent increase compounded annually. Even with the increase in digital, total advertising will remain lower in 2013 than in 2008, falling from $5.6 billion to $5.2 billion, a 1.6 percent compound annual decline. Circulation spending will fall by 7.6 percent during the next two years and then grow by 7.4 percent cumulatively during the subsequent three years, climbing back to $10.5 billion in 2013 but still 0.2 percent lower on a compound annual basis from $10.6 billion in 2008.
Overview
We project the consumer magazine industry in Asia Pacific to decline by a cumulative 11 percent during 200910 and then rebound by 8.8 percent during the subsequent three years. Spending in 2013 of $15.7 billion will be 0.6 percent lower on a compound annual basis from $16.2 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
450
Japan is by far the largest market in the region, at $8.4 billion in 2008, 52 percent of the total in Asia Pacific. Japans market fell by 7.4 percent during the past two years, and we project further cumulative declines totaling 18.7 percent through 2011. The economy in Japan, which has been sluggish for years, weakened considerably in 2008, and a prolonged recession will hurt the consumer magazine market. Additionally, print advertising in Japan has been hurt by migration of advertisers to the Internet and mobile phones. Although magazine publishers will attract a portion of that spending, it will not be enough to offset print advertising and circulation declines. Spending will fall at a 3.5 percent compound annual rate to $7 billion in 2013. The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) is the secondlargest market, at $2.8 billion in 2008. Consumer magazines in the PRC expanded at double-digit rates through 2007 and continued to grow in 2008 with a 6.4 percent advance. Although noticeably cooling from the explosive gains in the recent past, we still look for the economy in the PRC to continue to grow. The market is attracting international titles, and we project growth to average 5.5 percent compounded annually to $3.6 billion in 2013.
Australia is the third-largest market, at $1.4 billion. Spending fell during the past two years by 2.7 percent, and we look for a further, 7.5 percent cumulative decline during the next two years. During the past two years, declines in circulation spending caused the downturn. During the next two years, a continuation of that trend combined with a drop in print advertising will result in a steeper overall decrease. Improved economic conditions and an expanding digital market will lead to a rebound during 201113 that will offset the near-term decline. Spending in 2013 will be 0.6 percent higher compounded annually from 2008. South Korea and Hong Kong are next, at $827 million and $807 million, respectively, in 2008. The declining economy in South Korea will lead to a projected decline during the next three years and an overall 0.8 percent decrease compounded annually through 2013. Likewise in Hong Kong, we look for declines during the next two years and a 0.7 percent average annual decrease through 2013. In India, by contrast, the economy continues to expand, albeit at a much slower rate, and new titles are stimulating the market. We expect India to be the fastest-growing territory during the next five years with a 7 percent compound annual increase.
451
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Print advertising
Consumer magazines in a number of countries had benefited from an expanding market of affluent readers, particularly in the PRC and India. Consumer magazines are generally more upscale than other media and provide advertisers with a vehicle to reach affluent consumers. That pattern is now working against consumer magazines, as there are fewer affluent consumers, and people are cutting back on their discretionary purchases. Advertising targeting special interests is faltering in a number of countries. Print advertising has declined during the past five years in Japan and fell in 2008 in Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. Print advertising in all of Asia Pacific fell by 1.9 percent in 2008. India was a major exception in 2008, with a 10.6 percent increase, and the PRC, Hong Kong, and South Korea posted mid- to high-single-digit gains.
In India, a number of international magazines were launched during 200708, including Vogue, OK!, Hello!, Maxim, Rolling Stone, People, Marie Claire, and FHM that targeted the growing affluent market. In early 2009, GQ, Stuff (targeting gadget buyers), and CasaViva (an interior design title) entered the market. A new regulation enacted in 2008 will allow Indian editions of newsmagazines, with 26 percent foreign direct investment, to be sold in India. Previously, only facsimile editions of foreign magazines, which were expensive, were permitted. Under the new regulation, local editions will be available, and Indian publishers can sell local advertising. In addition, foreign publishers can now own up to 100 percent of nonnews publications. The slowing economy will lead to a drop to mid-single-digit growth during the next two years. We expect high-single-digit increases during 201113 and an overall increase of 7.2 percent compounded annually through 2013.
452
The PRC also is attracting international titles, including Top Gear and Mens Folio. Continued economic growth, albeit at a slower rate, will lead to low- to mid-singledigit growth in print advertising during the next three years and a return to double-digit growth during 201213. Print advertising will expand at a projected 7.2 percent compound annual rate during the next five years, matching India. South Korea has seen relatively healthy print advertising growth during the past four years, a trend we expect will change abruptly in 2009 because of the rapidly falling economy. We project a 10.6 percent decline in 2009 and a cumulative 15.9 percent decrease through 2011. A rebound during 201213 will reduce the overall decrease to 1.7 percent compounded annually. In addition to South Korea, we expect the recession to lead to double-digit declines in print advertising in 2009 in Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand, with Australia, Indonesia, and the Philippines falling at single-digit
rates. In Australia, the declining advertising market led to the cancellation of the planned launch of Glamour in early 2009. In Singapore, the collapsing advertising market led to the closing of Maxim. Declines will continue in each of those countries through 2010. In Japan, we expect decreases to last through 2012, and we look for the downturn to continue through 2011 in New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. In the Philippines, TV dominates the countrys overall media spending, with around three-quarters of the total, while print holds only less than 10 percent. A number of magazines were launched in 2008including YOU, AHA!, High School Musical, Town & Country, and Wedding Belle. That trend is expected to help support print advertising. For Asia Pacific as a whole, decreases during the next three years will offset gains during 201213. Print advertising in 2013 will fall to $4.9 billion from $5.5 billion in 2008, a 2.4 percent decrease compounded annually.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Commercial Economic Advisory Service of Australia, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
453
Digital advertising
Digital advertising in Asia Pacific is beginning to be developed in Asia Pacific. Japan is the dominant market, at $93 million, with Australia next, at $10 million. Together, those two countries constituted 86 percent of total digital advertising in Asia Pacific in 2008. Japan has a large online and mobile advertising market, and magazine Web sites are beginning to participate in that market. After an increase of 63 percent in 2008, we look for a slowdown to only 3 percent in 2009 as the weak economy cuts into digital advertising. Thereafter, growth will return to double-digit annual gains, fueled by an expanding mobile market. Spending will rise to $188 million by 2013, a 15.1 percent compound annual increase. In Australia, ACP Magazines launched 17 sites during the past two years, and Telstras BigPond mobile phone service now has licensing deals with magazines, including Marie Claire. The growing mobile market in that country will boost digital advertising to a projected $50 million by 2013, five times the 2008 total. Publishers in the PRC also are developing digital advertising sites. Axel Springer China in 2008 launched autobild.cn.com, and publishers are beginning to generate digital advertising. Although its currently small, at only $3 million, we expect digital advertising to grow to $22 million in by 2013. Growing broadband penetration in the PRC and other countries will enable more readers to easily download graphical and video content. At the same time, advertisers are increasingly allocating more resources to the Internet, and we expect that magazine Web sites will attract some of those funds.
Summit Media, one of the leading magazine publishers in the Philippines, has launched three new magazine Web sitesT3, Top Gear, and Real Living Space thereby opening up space for online advertising. Mobile sites also will become meaningful as the mobile access market expands. We expect the number of mobile access subscribers to more than double to 556 million in 2013 from 202 million in 2008. That growth will generate growth in mobile advertising, a portion of which will accrue to mobile magazine sites. As the online and mobile advertising market as a whole expands, online and mobile magazine advertising will expand as well. We project that market to rise to $314 million in 2013, a 21.2 percent compound annual increase from $120 million in 2008.
152.7 119.1 100 41.7 80.9 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
454
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
advertising will drop to $5.2 billion in 2013 from $5.6 billion in 2008, a 1.6 percent decrease compounded annually. Digitals share of total advertising will increase from 2 percent in 2008 to 6 percent in 2013.
455
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Circulation
Circulation spending declined by 0.6 percent in 2008 following a 0.1 percent decrease in 2007. The declining economy is squeezing discretionary income, which in turn is leading to a decline in discretionary purchases, including consumer magazines. In Australia, lad, or mens, magazine circulation has been declining since 2006, in part because the youth audience has moved online. The companion Web sites of lad magazines represent 4 of the top 10 most popular mens Web sites. In 2008, celebrity magazines, womens titles, and weekly magazines experienced sharp declines. Rising gasoline and food prices impacted purchases in two large distribution channels: supermarkets and gas stations. Titles relying on newsstand sales were hurt also, because newsstand purchases are easy to forgo when money is tight.
Consumers generally do not cancel subscriptions, although renewal rates are likely to fall in 2009. Homeoriented titles such as Better Homes and Gardens did relatively well in 2008. We expect circulation spending to continue to decline through 2010 and despite a subsequent rebound to remain 0.5 percent lower on a compound annual basis in 2013 compared with 2008. Circulation spending in Japan fell by 2.8 percent in 2008, its second consecutive decrease. We expect a much sharper, 8.8 percent drop in 2009, reflecting the accelerating economic decline, and look for decreases to persist through 2011. The economy in Singapore is falling even faster than in Japan, and we expect that will translate into a 13.6 percent decrease in 2009 and continued declines through 2011.
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In the PRC and India, by contrast, circulation spending is holding up. We look for slower growth during the next two years and a pickup thereafter. Circulation spending will increase at a 5.7 percent compound annual rate through 2013 in India and by 5 percent compounded annually in the PRC.
For Asia Pacific as a whole, we project circulation spending to fall from $10.6 billion in 2008 to $9.8 billion in 2010 and then rebound to $10.5 billion in 2013, which will be 0.2 percent lower on a compound annual basis from 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Latin America
Print advertising will fall by 8.7 percent during the next two years, with a projected 15.1 percent rebound to $1.4 billion in 2013, a 1 percent compound annual increase from $1.3 billion in 2008. Digital advertising will rise from $13 million in 2008 to $58 million in 2013, a 34.9 percent compound annual increase from a small base. Total consumer magazine advertising will increase from $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion, a 1.6 percent compound annual gain. Circulation spending will follow the print advertising pattern: falling during the next two years and then rebounding during the subsequent three years. Spending will total $2.1 billion in 2013 from $2 billion in 2008, a 1 percent compound annual increase.
Overview
We project consumer magazine publishing in Latin America to decrease during the next two years by 6.8 percent and then rebound by 14.3 percent during the subsequent three years to $3.6 billion in 2013, up 1.3 percent compounded annually from $3.4 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Brazil is the dominant market in the region, at $1.9 billion in 2008, 57 percent of the total in Latin America. Argentina and Mexico are next, at $670 million and $484 million, respectively. With the exception of Chile and Mexico, a relatively strong first half of 2008 offset a declining second half, leading to overall growth in 2008 of 3.1 percent. That increase was well below the 9.1 percent gain in 2007. In Chile, a plunging print advertising market led to an 11.3 percent overall decline in 2008, while in Mexico, the decrease was a more modest, 0.8 percent.
We expect declines in each country in 2009 and except for Argentina and Venezuela, further decreases in 2010. High inflation in Argentina will mitigate the decrease in nominal terms and augment the rebound in later years. Argentina will record the best performance in nominal terms during the next five years, with a 3.2 percent compound annual increase. In addition to Argentina, we expect gains in Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela in later years to offset nearterm declines. In Chile and Colombia, steep decreases during the next two years will offset the subsequent rebound, and spending in 2013 will be lower in those countries than in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Print advertising
Consumer magazine print advertising growth slowed to 6.2 percent in 2008 from double-digit or highsingle-digit gains during each of the prior three years. Argentina and Brazil continued to grow by double digits in 2008. Colombia slowed to 3.4 percent from 8 percent in 2007, and Venezuela was flat. The market in Chile plunged by 16 percent, and Mexico fell by 2.1 percent. The advertising market as a whole began falling earlier and faster in Chile than in other countries in Latin America, and consumer magazines were particularly affected. Mexico, which is more closely tied to the US market than are other countries in Latin America, fell sharply late in the year as the US market plunged.
Consumer magazines had benefited from an expanding middle class because high-end products and products targeting special interests use magazines to reach their desired audiences. With income growth now stalled, advertisers are cutting back. We expect double-digit declines in Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela in 2009; a 4.4 percent drop in Brazil, which is holding up better than other countries; and a 1 percent gain in Argentina. Growth in Argentina is due to inflation rates that are running about 20 percent. In real terms, print advertising is also down by double digits. We project an overall decline in 2009 of 6.6 percent followed by a further, 2.2 percent drop in 2010 as the weak economy lingers. Most countries will begin to turn around in 2011, and we expect each country expand during 201213.
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We expect that once the current economic downturn runs its course, there will be a return to the previous trend of a growing middle class and rising discretionary incomedevelopments that will boost the consumer magazine market and lead to a robust rebound in print advertising. The shift from traditional media to digital media is much less pronounced in Latin America than in other regions. Consequently, print media face less competition and
will experience less erosion. We therefore expect that growth in print advertising during 201113 will offset declines during the next two years, the only region where that will be the case. For the five-year period as a whole, consumer magazine print advertising will expand at a 1 percent compound annual rate from $1.3 billion in 2008 to $1.4 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Digital advertising
Latin America does not have much of a digital advertising market. Broadband penetration is low throughout the regionaveraging less than 20 percent and only a third of households are online at all. Mobile access penetration also is low, at only 5.2 million users, 85 percent of whom are in Brazil. Consequently, there is not yet a critical mass to support digital advertising, and publishers have not been proactive in developing Web sites for their titles and marketing them to advertisers. While the recession will slow growth in broadband, both the broadband and mobile access markets are expanding, and growth will pick up when the economy improves. We expect the broadband universe to more than double from 20 million in 2008 to 44 million by 2013. The mobile access market will jump by a factor of eight to 41 million by 2013.
That increase will create revenue opportunities for consumer magazine publishers, and we expect they will put more resources into their Web sites, which in turn will attract advertising.
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While we are not projecting digital advertising to become a major advertising segment, we are estimating that it will expand to $58 million by 2013 from only $13 million in 2008, a 34.9 percent compound annual increase.
Brazil will have the largest digital market, at $38 million in 2013, with Mexico well behind at $11 million. The remaining countries will each have less than $10 million in digital consumer magazine advertising.
2007 3 1 1 5
2008p 1 8 2 2 13
2009 1 11 2 3 17
2010 2 13 1 2 4 22
2011 2 17 1 2 5 27
2012 3 27 1 3 8 42
2013 4 38 1 4 11 58
Digital advertising will account for 4 percent of total magazine advertising in 2013 from 1 percent in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Circulation
Circulation spending growth slowed to 0.8 percent in 2008 from 7.6 percent in 2007, again reflecting the impact of the economy. We expect declining incomes to lead to a drop in circulation spending during the next two years as consumers cut back on discretionary purchases such as consumer magazines. We then project a rebound in circulation spending as incomes increase during 201113. As with print advertising, we expect that gains during the latter years will offset near-term declinesagain, the only region
where we expect circulation spending to be higher in 2013 than in 2008. Although consumer magazines do not represent a large medium in Latin America, they face less competition from digital media than they do in other regions. Consequently, circulation will hold up better when the economy recovers. We project circulation spending to fall by 6.1 percent during the next two years and increase by 12 percent from 2010 to 2013. Circulation spending in 2013 will total an estimated $2.1 billion, up 1 percent on a compound annual basis from $2 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Newspaper publishing
464 Summary 465 North America 477 Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA) 488 Asia Pacific 498 Latin America
Summary
Newspaper publishing
The newspaper publishing market consists of (1) spending on daily print newspapers by advertisers and readers and (2) advertising on newspaper Web sites and mobile phone sites. Spending by readers includes both newsstand purchases and subscriptions. Sunday editions issued by publishers of daily papers are included in the daily paper totals, as is advertising in free daily newspapers. However, free weeklies and other weekly papers are not included because they constitute a separate and distinct market in terms of content, advertising base, andwhen paid forsubscriber interests.
Principal drivers
The economic downturn will lead to sharp declines in print advertising in all regions in 2009, with further decreases expected in 2010. Improved economic conditions during the latter part of the forecast period will lead to a modest recovery during 201213 in all regions. The rebound will be muted by continuing migration of advertising, particularly classified advertising, to the Internet. Declines in paid circulation in North America and EMEA will adversely affect circulation spending, while rising circulation in Latin America, India, the Peoples Republic of China, and several other territories in Asia Pacific will boost paid circulation spending. Declining circulation of free papers in response to the drop in advertising will further depress print advertising in the near term in North America and EMEA. Rising Web site traffic will boost digital advertising. Latin America will outperform other regions because newspapers face less competition from the Internet.
Data for the global newspaper publishing market by region and for the global newspaper publishing market by component can be found within the Executive Summary on pages 47 and 48.
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North America
Total newspaper advertising will fall by a cumulative 32.7 percent during the next three years before posting a modest rebound during 201213. Spending will drop from $39.9 billion in 2008 to 27.9 billion in 2013, a 6.9 percent decrease compounded annually. Print advertising will decline by more than 35 percent during the next four years and will average a 7.9 percent compound annual decrease to $24.3 billion in 2013 from $36.7 billion in 2008. Digital advertising on newspaper Web sites also will decline during the next two years, although subsequent gains will boost spending to $3.7 billion in 2013 from $3.2 billion in 2008, a 2.5 percent increase compounded annually. Circulation spending will decline at a compound annual rate of 2.1 percent, falling to $9.8 billion in 2013 from $10.9 billion in 2008.
Overview
We project the newspaper publishing industry to decline by 17.7 percent in 2009 and at a 5.8 percent compound annual rate through 2013, falling to $37.7 billion in 2013 from $50.8 billion in 2008.
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The US newspaper market has been much weaker than the Canadian market in recent years, and we expect that trend to continue through 2013. During the past three years, US newspaper revenues fell by nearly 21 percent, including a 14.6 percent decrease in 2008. We expect a steeper, 18 percent drop in 2009 and continued declines through 2012. By 2013, US newspaper publishing will have lost $25 billion from its peak in 2005. During the five-year forecast period, spending will fall at a 5.9 percent compound annual rate to $35.1 billion from $47.7 billion in 2008. The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, and, possibly, the New York Times and the Washington Post are the only national newspapers in the US. We expect they will be relatively well positioned to ride out the recession, whereas smaller papers are more at risk. Some newspapers in the US are responding to the challenges facing them by moving to online-only publication, or adopting the concept of so-called power days to increase circulation and advertising on selected days of the week while limiting or stopping circulation on the other days. Examples are the Detroit Free
Press and the Detroit News, which plan to limit home deliveries to Thursday through Sunday so as to save on production costs, although they will continue to sell at newsstands seven days a week. The Canadian newspaper market has held up relatively well, although it too has declined, falling by 4.7 percent in 2008. The Canadian newspaper market is much more competitive than the US market, with many cities served by a number of papers. Paid newspaper circulation has declined at a slower rate in Canada than in the United States, and free dailies have expanded the reach for advertisers. Free dailies constitute a third of total newspaper circulation in Canada compared with only 6 percent in the United States. When free dailies are included, overall newspaper circulation increased through 2007 and was relatively flat in 2008. Consequently, advertising erosion has been more modest in Canada. Nevertheless, the recession will lead to a 13 percent drop in 2009 and a cumulative 21 percent decline through 2011. During the forecast period as a whole, spending will fall at a 3.7 percent compound annual rate from $3.1 billion in 2008 to $2.6 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Canadian Newspaper Association, Newspaper Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Statistics Canada, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Canadian Newspaper Association, Newspaper Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Statistics Canada, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Print advertising
The print advertising newspaper market has been adversely affected by two ongoing trendslongterm unit circulation declines and the reallocation of advertising from the print media to the Internetand by a cyclical trend: the current economic downturn. While all advertising is affected by the economy, newspapers are particularly vulnerable because a significant portion of their revenues is generated by classified advertising. In 2005, before its recent decline, classifieds accounted for 36.5 percent of print advertising in the United States and 32.9 percent in Canada. Print classified advertising Classified advertising is the most cyclically sensitive advertising category because it is the most directly affected by macroeconomic trends. Recruitment advertising closely follows employment trends, and real estate advertising is affected by the housing cycle, and both recruitment advertising and real estate advertising have turned sharply negative. Automotive classifieds are affected by trends in auto sales, which have been falling sharply. Moreover, classified advertising is well suited to an online environment and was moving to the Internet even when the economy was strong. During the past three years, print classified advertising in North America has fallen by a third, and in the United States, by a staggering 42 percent. The main reasons classified advertising is migrating to the Internet are lower costthe Internet is much cheaperand greater flexibility: online classifieds can be inserted anytime, can be changed easily, and are not as limited with respect to word count. The shift in the audience also plays an important role: with print readership falling while the online audience is growing, advertisers are following the audience. However, in the near term Internet classified advertising, too, will be hurt by the general drop in classified advertising.
Recruitment advertising in the United States fell by 42 percent in 2008, reflecting accelerating job losses; real estate classifieds were down by 39 percent because housing prices have tumbled and mortgages have become difficult to obtain; and automotive classifieds fell by 28 percent, the result of declining auto sales and a shortage of credit. We expect even sharper decreases in 200950 percent for recruitment and 45 percent for real estateand a further 28 percent drop in automotive, with further double-digit declines expected in 2010. We expect real estate classifieds in the United States to turn around in 2011 and recruitment in 2012 as the economy begins to recover. Housing responds concurrently with the economy, while employment generally lags. As both of these markets pick up, classified spending will increase, and newspapers will get a share of that growth. Automotive classified is moving online, and we project continued declines through 2013, averaging 12.7 percent compounded annually. We do not expect the print classified rebound during 201213 to match prior rebounds, because more of the classified advertising market is moving online. Consequently, both the 6.5 percent increase projected for recruitment and the 7 percent for real estate in 2013 are well below the double-digit gains realized as recently as 2006 for real estate and 2005 for recruitment. Those projected increases also are from a substantially smaller base and represent significantly smaller volumes. Recruitment classifieds in 2013 will be 62.5 percent lower than in 2008, and real estate, 53.1 percent lower. Automotive classifieds will decline by a cumulative 49.2 percent. Overall print classified advertising in the United States will fall from $10 billion in 2008 to $6.2 billion in 2013, a 38.3 percent cumulative decline and a 9.2 percent compound annual decrease.
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The Canadian print classified market fell by 9.7 percent in 2008, a much more modest decrease compared with the 29.6 percent drop in the United States. Canada was less affected than the United States by the downturn in housing during the first half of 2008, although it had become a major problem by the fourth quarter. While we do not have category breakouts for classified advertising in Canada, Canadian classified advertising too is dominated by recruitment, real estate, and automotive, each of which began to fall sharply in
late 2008. We project a 24.4 percent decrease in print classifieds in Canada in 2009, a further 13 percent decline in 2010, and an additional 5.1 percent decrease in 2011. By 2013, print classifieds in Canada will total $469 million, down 8 percent on a compound annual basis from $713 million in 2008. For North America as a whole, print classified advertising will decrease at a 9.1 percent compound annual rate from $10.7 billion in 2008 to $6.6 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Canadian Newspaper Association, Newspaper Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Statistics Canada, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Sources: Canadian Newspaper Association, Newspaper Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Statistics Canada, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Retail advertising Although more volatile than other advertising categories, classifieds are not the only category experiencing sharp declines in newspapers. In 2008, retail advertising consisting primarily of advertising by local retailers, plus some other local advertisingfell by 11.5 percent in the United States and 4.3 percent in Canada. The retail market in both countries has been weak for several years, hurt by consolidation among local advertisers, the shift of display advertising to the Internet, and in late 2008, plunging retail sales. We project accelerating declines in both countries in 2009: 19.4 percent in the United States and 16.2 percent in Canada. In the US, we expect a further 10 percent drop in retail advertising in 2010, with declines continuing through 2012. We estimate retail print advertising in 2013 at $13 billion in the United States, down 6.9 percent on a compound annual basis from $18.6 billion in 2008.
In Canada, we project decreases in print retail advertising to continue through 2011. Although growing modestly during 201213, retail advertising of $778 million in 2013 will be 5.2 percent lower on a compound annual basis from $1 billion in 2008. Steady unit circulation, when free papers are included, will help limit the drop in retail advertising in Canada compared with the United States. The shift in retail sales from department stores to discount stores such as Wal-Mart has significantly hurt newspapers. Department stores use newspapers extensively, while Wal-Mart does not spend much on newspapers and uses television instead. The same is true for pharmacy chains and big-box hardware stores such as Home Depot, which also are spending more on the Internet. The local advertising market in general has been further reduced by the movement in consumer spending from retail outlets to online purchases and by the general shift from local retailers to national retailers. The overall print retail advertising market in North America will fall by 6.8 percent on a compound annual basis from $19.6 billion in 2008 to $13.8 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Canadian Newspaper Association, Newspaper Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Statistics Canada, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Sources: Canadian Newspaper Association, Newspaper Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Statistics Canada, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
National advertising National advertising in newspapersdefined as ads placed by national advertisers, generally in a number of newspapers across marketsfell by 16.8 percent in the United States and by 6.6 percent in Canada in 2008. The weak auto industry, a key national category, contributed to that decline, which in both countries was steeper than the drop in retail advertising. In the United States, Google discontinued its PrintAds program in early 2009, after only two years, because the program had failed to generate meaningful revenue. Google had been selling print ads for newspapers through an online auction. Falling auto sales and an overall drop in consumer spending will continue to hurt national print advertising. We project a 24.5 percent
decline in 2009 followed by a 14.8 percent drop in 2010, with further decreases anticipated through 2012. Print national advertising in the United States will drop to $3.5 billion in 2013 from $5.8 billion in 2008, a 9.9 percent compound annual decrease. We also expect a sharper, 10.9 percent decline in Canada in 2009 followed by decreases of 9.1 percent in 2010 and 5.5 percent in 2011. Spending for the entire forecast period will fall at a 4.5 percent compound annual rate from $521 million in 2008 to $413 million in 2013. The overall national print advertising market in North America will decline from $6.3 billion in 2008 to $3.9 billion in 2013, a 9.5 percent decrease compounded annually.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Canadian Newspaper Association, Newspaper Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Statistics Canada, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Canadian Newspaper Association, Newspaper Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Statistics Canada, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Total print advertising Total print advertising in newspapers will decrease from $36.7 billion in 2008 to $24.3 billion in 2013, a 7.9 percent compound annual decline.
The US market will decline at an 8.1 percent compound annual rate to $22.6 billion from $34.4 billion, while Canada will fall by 5.9 percent compounded annually from $2.3 billion to $1.7 billion.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Canadian Newspaper Association, Newspaper Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Statistics Canada, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Canadian Newspaper Association, Newspaper Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Statistics Canada, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
A number of newspapers in the United States have benefited from the Yahoo! Newspaper Consortium Partnership formed in late 2006 to sell classified advertising across newspaper Web sites and on its own HotJobs site. By year-end 2008, there were around 800 daily papers participatingtwice the number in 2007. Participants can implement Yahoo!s search technology on their Web sites, and a number have reported generating $1 million or more in revenue from the relationship. Newspaper Web sites also are among the most visited on the Internet. Interest in the political campaign in the United States boosted traffic in 2008. It appears that news content provided by publishers is appealing to the public, as evidenced by a double-digit increase in traffic. The difficulty lies in monetizing that interest. Thus far, ad revenue is still much too small to compensate for losses in print, and consumers have not yet shown a willingness
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to pay for online content. Moreover, the recession is causing that revenue stream to decline, albeit at a much slower rate than that of print. We expect the economy to continue to curb overall advertising, including online advertising, during the next two years. Classified and display advertisingthe main newspaper Web site categorieswill be particularly hurt. We project a 5.8 percent decrease in 2009 and a 3.4 percent drop in 2010. We then expect that an expanding economy will translate into growing online spending and project a return to double-digit growth in 2013. Digital advertising in 2013 will total an estimated $3.5 billion in 2013, up 2.3 percent on a compound annual basis from $3.1 billion in 2008. Canada The digital market in Canada is several years behind that of the United States and is still relatively small, at only $113 million in 2008. As in the United States, growing newspaper Web site traffic is attracting advertisers. Spending rose by 16.5 percent in 2008 from a small base.
This market is still in its early development stage, and we expect it will continue to grow despite the recession, although at a substantially slower pace. We project a drop to only 2.7 percent growth in 2009 following three years of double-digit growth. We look for a 6 percent increase in 2010 and a return to double-digit growth during 201113. Digital advertising in Canada will increase to $174 million by 2013, a 9 percent compound annual increase. Total digital newspaper advertising By 2013, newspaper Web site advertising will total an estimated $3.7 billion, a 2.5 percent compound annual increase from $3.2 billion in 2008. Web sites will account for 13 percent of total daily newspaper advertising in the United States in 2013, up from 8 percent in 2008. In Canada, the Web site share will rise from 5 percent in 2008 to 9 percent in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Newspaper Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Total newspaper advertising The falling number of newspapers plays an important role in the declines in advertising revenues. In markets with multiple newspapers, the surviving newspapers get only a portion of the advertising (and only a portion of the readership) of a paper that disappeared. There are fewer multiple-newspaper markets now than in the past, meaning that the loss of a paper has an even greater impact. Gains in digital advertising will not be sufficient to offset declines in print advertising. Overall newspaper
advertising, including advertising on newspaper Web sites, will fall by 7 percent compounded annually in the United States to $26.1 billion in 2013 from $37.5 billion in 2008. In Canada, newspaper advertising will fall at a 5 percent compound annual rate from $2.4 billion in 2008 to $1.8 billion in 2013. For North America as a whole, advertising will decline from $39.9 billion in 2008 to $27.9 billion in 2013, a 6.9 percent decrease compounded annually.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Newspaper Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Circulation
Paid circulation in both the United States and Canada has been declining for years and continued to fall in 2008, dropping by 4.6 percent in the US and by 1.6 percent in Canada. Increased newspaper Web site traffic has in part come at the expense of reduced print circulation. Newspapers also are affected by demographic trends. The incidence of newspaper readership among younger people is much lower than among older people, a
long-term pattern. As younger people grow older, their incidence of newspaper readership increases. At the same time, the overall incidence of readership has decreased across all age groups. That decrease has contributed to low-single-digit annual declines in circulation. In recent years, the population in North America has grown older, and during the next five years, the older segment of the population will be growing the fastest. In principle, these demographic trends should be favorable to newspapers. So far, other factors have offset that potential benefit.
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Consolidation has hurt overall newspaper circulation particularly in the United States, which has experienced the largest decline in the number of papers. With fewer daily papers available, there are fewer options for readers. Typically, when a paper closes or merges, the surviving entity does not capture all of the readers from the closed paper, and total readership in the market declines. In the US, restrictions on telephone solicitations and sweepstakes offers have limited the ability of publishers to attract new subscribers. The added cost of gaining subscribers often does not pay off given the weak advertising market, and publishers are cutting back on these expenses. Also, advertisers in the retail industry have little interest in reaching readers who live so far from their stores that they are unlikely to come and buy goods in them. Nevertheless, more than 48 million people paid for a newspaper every day in the United States, down 4.6 percent from 2007. Free papers have not played a significant role in the US, reflecting the fact that a lot of cities do not have free papers and that people who drive to work generally do not get them, because they are distributed primarily at transit locations. At 2.9 million, free papers represented less than 6 percent of total daily unit circulation in 2008. Circulation of free dailies has not offset declines among paid dailies, and overall unit circulation in the United States has fallen during the past five years, including a 4.1 percent decrease in 2008. In Canada, paid circulation has fallen more slowly than in the United States, helped by spirited competition between papers in many markets. Free dailies are an important component of the market in Canada, accounting for a third of total circulation. Circulation of free dailies has grown rapidly and through 2007 offset the drop in paid circulation. Overall circulation rose at mid-single-digit rates in 200407, which has helped support the print advertising market. The recession will squeeze disposable income, which in turn will lead to cutbacks in discretionary purchases such as newspapers. We look for steeper declines in paid circulation in 2009 in both countries compared with 2008, with large decreases continuing through 2010.
Although we expect the long-term decline in paid circulation to continue throughout the forecast period, we expect the rate of decline to moderate when the economy improves, disposable income rises, and the underlying favorable demographic trends play a larger role. In the US, we look for decreases averaging 4.6 percent annually during the next two years, a 3.4 percent drop in 2011, and further declines averaging 3 percent annuallystill above the long-term average during 201213. Paid circulation will fall to 40 million in 2013, a 3.7 percent compound annual decline. In Canada, paid circulation fell by 1.6 percent in 2008. We look for declines averaging 2.2 percent annually during the next two years, a 1.1 percent decrease in 2011, and 0.6 percent average declines during 2012 13, when rising disposable income limits erosion. Paid circulation will fall from 4.6 million in 2008 to 4.3 million in 2013, a 1.3 percent decrease compounded annually. We look for free circulation to decline in both countries during the next two years as the advertising decline leads free dailies to reduce costs by cutting print runs. Free circulation will increase again during 201113, when the economy improves and an expanded print run provides enough incremental ad revenue to make it worthwhile. In Canada, the increase in free circulation will offset the decrease in paid circulation during 201213, although overall circulation will remain lower in 2013 than in 2008 by 0.5 percent on a compound annual basis. In the United States, overall unit circulation will decline throughout the forecast period, falling at a 3.5 percent compound annual rate. Overall paid circulation in North America will fall at a 3.5 percent compound annual rate to 44.3 million in 2013 from 53 million in 2008. Free circulation will expand by 0.9 percent compounded annually from 5.2 million to 5.4 million. Total circulation of 49.7 million in 2013 will be 3.1 percent lower on a compound annual basis from 58.2 million in 2008.
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Sources: Canadian Newspaper Association, Newspaper Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Canadian Newspaper Association, Newspaper Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Rising prices will offset unit declines in Canada during 201113, although later gains will not make up for near-term declines. Circulation spending in Canada will decrease to $742 million in 2013 from $751 million in 2008, a 0.2 percent compound annual decline. In the United States, rising prices will not offset unit declines, and circulation spending will continue to fall
throughout the forecast period, dropping to $9 billion in 2013 from $10.1 billion in 2008, a 2.3 percent decrease compounded annually. The overall circulation spending market in North America will fall at a 2.1 percent compound annual rate from $10.9 billion in 2008 to $9.8 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Canadian Newspaper Association, Newspaper Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Statistics Canada, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Sources: Canadian Newspaper Association, Newspaper Association of America, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Statistics Canada, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Print advertising will decrease by 16.2 percent in 2009 and by a cumulative 22.1 percent through 2011. Spending will fall to $31.7 billion in 2013 from $39.1 billion in 2008, a 4.1 percent compound annual decline. Digital advertising on newspaper Web sites will total an estimated $2.8 billion in 2013, a 10.4 percent compound annual increase from $1.7 billion in 2008. Gains in digital advertising will not be large enough to counter the decline in print advertising. Total newspaper advertising will fall at a 3.3 percent compound annual rate to $34.5 billion in 2013 from $40.8 billion in 2008. Circulation spending will decline during the next two years and then expand during the subsequent three years to $33 billion in 2013, a 0.4 percent compound annual increase from $32.3 billion in 2008.
Overview
We project the newspaper market in EMEA will decline by 8.8 percent in 2009 and by an additional 2.8 percent in 2010. Modest gains during the subsequent three years will not offset the near-term decline, and spending will fall from $73.1 billion in 2008 to $67.5 billion in 2013, a 1.6 percent decrease compounded annually.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Newspaper publishing in Western Europe fell by 3.4 percent in 2008, and we expect a sharper, 9.3 percent drop in 2009 followed by a further 2.9 percent decrease in 2010. We expect the market to stabilize in 2011 and then to advance at low-single-digit rates to $57.1 billion in 2013, which will be 1.9 percent lower on a compound annual basis from $62.9 billion in 2008. Central and Eastern Europe will decline by 7.8 percent in 2009, with an additional 1.1 percent drop projected in 2010. We expect a modest rebound thereafter to $5.3 billion in 2013, 0.3 percent lower on a compound annual basis from $5.4 billion in 2008. Middle East/Africa will be the only area where spending will be higher in 2013 than in 2008: by 1.1 percent compounded annually to $5.1 billion from $4.8 billion in 2008. Germany and the United Kingdom were the largest newspaper markets in 2008, at $13.1 billion and $12.6 billion, respectively. Germany decreased by 3.5 percent in 2008, the result of a 7.5 percent drop in print advertising as the economy declined. We expect print advertising to fall by 15 percent in 2009 and by 21 percent through 2011. Price increases will offset unit circulation declines and lead to modest growth in circulation spending. Overall spending will fall to $12.3 billion in 2013, 1.2 percent lower compounded annually from 2008. The UK market has declined during the past three years, the result of advertisings shifting to the Internet, decreases in paid unit circulation, and, in 2008, a falling economy. With the UK economy in a steep decline, we project print advertising to fall by 26 percent in 2009 the steepest in EMEAand by a cumulative 38 percent through 2011. Overall spending will fall from $12.6 billion in 2008 to $9.9 billion in 2013, a 4.8 percent compound annual decrease.
Print advertising
Print newspaper advertising fell by 5.1 percent in 2008 following three years of low-single-digit growth. Through 2007, the market was bolstered by growing circulation of free dailies that offset declines in paid circulation and that expanded the overall reach of newspapers. Expanding economies, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe and Middle East/Africa, also fueled overall newspaper advertising, and growth in classifieds contributed to print advertising even as newspapers were losing share to the Internet. The market changed abruptly in 2008. Circulation of free papers began to decline, resulting in an overall decrease in newspaper circulation; and economies began to decline, leading to a decrease in overall advertising and a sharp drop in classified advertising. That combination led to the fall in print advertising, which in turn fed back into further print-run reductions by free papers.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
478
At average 2008 exchange rates. Includes weekly papers. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Bundesverband Deutscher Zeitungsverleger (Federal Association of German Newspaper Publishers, BDZV), PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
479
The drop in ad revenue caused some free dailies to cut back on print runs, and others to close. In Denmark, free dailies accounted for a majority of total circulation in 2007, but this changed in 2008. Fueled by a flurry of launches in 2006, the top five papers in Denmark in 2007 were free dailies. With the ad market falling, not all survived. One of the top free dailies in 2007, 24timer, closed in 2008. Aalborg also closed, and overall daily circulation in Denmark declined. In Spain, free daily circulation fell by more than 15 percent in 2008 as publishers scrambled for advertising in a rapidly declining market. ADN reduced its circulation by 30 percent to lower costs, Que! cut its circulation by 6 percent, and Metro closed. Print advertising plunged by 20.3 percent in 2008. However, free newspapers are holding up better in some other countries in EMEA. In Switzerland, free papers still have good reputations, and their circulation levels and advertising revenues remained relatively stable in 2008. The expectation is that circulation of free dailies in Switzerland will either hold steady or decline marginally over the next few years. In the UK, real estate classified advertising is falling as the real estate market declines, while advertising in general is moving online. Print advertising fell by 7.9 percent in 2008, the second-steepest decline, behind Spain. With the UK economy in a steep decline, we look for large decreases in recruitment advertising, and we expect all categories to fall at accelerating rates. We project print advertising to decline by an additional 38 percent during the next three years. These declines are leading to the closing of around 30 local papers. In France, print advertising declined by 6.1 percent in 2008 and by 8.8 percent during the past two years. To bolster the ailing newspaper market, the government enacted a three-year 600-million ($878-million) program that includes a free one-year subscription for all teenagers in France, a tax break for home
delivery, and a doubling of government advertising in newspapers. Separately, daily papers are looking to attract advertisers that have been forced off public television stations in prime time. Those measures will limit the decrease in print advertising in 2009 to 8.9 percent, the only single-digit decrease we are projecting for Europe. In general, the print advertising market is being hurt by three adverse trends. The declining economy is leading to significant declines in classified advertising, the most cyclically sensitive advertising category. Overall circulation is declining because free dailies are no longer propping up the market, and the migration of readers and advertisers from print to the Internet continues. We project print advertising to fall by 16.9 percent in Western Europe in 2009; by 19.4 percent in Central and Eastern Europe, whose economies are now falling sharply; and by a relatively more modest, 5.6 percent in Middle East/Africa. For EMEA as a whole, we expect a 16.2 percent decrease in 2009. Continued economic weakness will lead to further decreases in print advertising of 5.9 percent in 2010 and 1.2 percent in 2011. Print advertising during the five-year period from 2007 to 2011 will fall by 26.1 percent. Improved economic conditions should revive the print advertising market during 201213. Overall classified spending in all media will increase, and newspapers will get a portion of that growth even as they continue to lose share to the Internet. Gains during the latter part of the forecast period will be more modest than increases registered during 200507, because print newspapers will have lost much of their classified and display markets to the Internet. For the forecast period as a whole, print advertising will decline at a 4.1 percent compound annual rate, falling from $39.1 billion in 2008 to $31.7 billion in 2013.
480
At average 2008 exchange rates. Includes weekly papers. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Advertising Association, Asociacin de Editores de Diarios Espaoles (Spanish Newspaper Publishers Association, AEDE), Association of Communications Agencies of Russia, Bundesverband Deutscher Zeitungsverleger (Federal Association of German Newspaper Publishers, BDZV)
481
Digital advertising
A portion of the migration of advertising from the print media to the Internet is being recaptured by newspaper Web sites. Digital advertising on newspaper Web sites rose by 17.2 percent in 2008. Publishers have been investing in their Web sites to help them attract online advertising and are becoming more proactive in selling online ads. In Italy, for example, RCS MediaGroup and Gruppo Editoriale lEspresso formed the Premium Publisher Network, a consortium to sell online advertising. The network enables advertisers to reach 40 percent of the countrys total online advertising audience in a single buy. In the UK, online recruitment advertising on national newspaper Web sites rose by 35 percent in 2008 despite the weak recruitment market. Newspaper Web site traffic rose by more than 20 percent. Advertisers are following readers and are shifting funds from print to the Internet. Overall newspaper Web site advertising in the UK increased by 15 percent. Although prospering in recent years, Internet advertising is still affected by macroeconomic trends. Specifically, a declining economy leads to decreases in overall classified advertising, which has been one of the fastest-growing online categories in general and on newspaper Web sites. Display advertising also will be adversely affected by the declining economy.
While continued share gains and rising traffic will cushion the impact, we expect newspaper Web site advertising growth to drop to only 3.1 percent in 2009. In the UK, we look for a 7.7 percent decline. The economy in the UK is very weak, which is hurting advertising in all media, including the Internet. Online display advertising and classified advertising are falling, which is affecting newspaper Web sites. We look for growth to return to double-digit levels in 2010 and expect increases to average 13 percent compounded annually from 2010 to 2013. We project total EMEA digital advertising in newspapers to increase from $1.7 billion in 2008 to $2.8 billion in 2013, a 10.4 percent compound annual increase.
482
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
483
2004 505 1,310 629 764 1,945 6,939 820 560 5,163 1,049 1,313 142 2,318 1,165 1,512 7,972 34,106 291 196 266 58 290 486 1,587 480 770 550 1,800 37,493
2005 568 1,492 702 793 2,008 7,059 938 613 5,419 1,050 1,393 146 2,487 1,254 1,521 7,810 35,253 305 213 302 51 333 611 1,815 514 1,000 693 2,207 39,275
2006 608 1,620 851 818 2,050 7,225 1,064 679 5,577 1,067 1,462 144 2,698 1,349 1,605 7,551 36,368 353 212 316 51 384 696 2,012 497 1,142 824 2,463 40,843
2007 677 1,665 867 859 2,010 7,360 1,226 710 5,768 1,099 1,547 146 2,884 1,404 1,744 7,594 37,560 330 217 326 55 484 785 2,197 505 1,423 958 2,886 42,643
2008p 700 1,636 865 849 1,906 6,877 1,169 720 5,455 1,092 1,574 146 2,321 1,383 1,719 7,058 35,470 341 222 329 69 565 765 2,291 497 1,538 1,008 3,043 40,804
2009 606 1,476 754 730 1,758 5,909 957 603 4,431 988 1,354 124 2,021 1,244 1,552 5,269 29,776 290 186 287 56 466 577 1,862 455 1,446 986 2,887 34,525
2010 590 1,384 714 711 1,682 5,620 855 568 4,212 967 1,315 119 1,933 1,254 1,527 4,735 28,186 273 174 271 50 448 568 1,784 451 1,358 982 2,791 32,761
2011 603 1,399 688 723 1,669 5,623 783 578 4,274 969 1,291 119 1,970 1,269 1,554 4,536 28,048 268 169 242 48 452 583 1,762 456 1,381 997 2,834 32,644
2012 627 1,415 697 734 1,692 5,687 768 604 4,363 986 1,308 121 2,021 1,298 1,614 4,589 28,524 273 173 247 50 473 622 1,838 464 1,441 1,049 2,954 33,316
2013 656 1,473 711 768 1,730 5,789 777 638 4,487 1,012 1,343 125 2,102 1,341 1,696 4,668 29,316 284 180 258 55 501 703 1,981 475 1,583 1,140 3,198 34,495
200913 CAGR 1.3 2.1 3.8 2.0 1.9 3.4 7.8 2.4 3.8 1.5 3.1 3.1 2.0 0.6 0.3 7.9 3.7 3.6 4.1 4.7 4.4 2.4 1.7 2.9 0.9 0.6 2.5 1.0 3.3
At average 2008 exchange rates. Includes weekly papers. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Advertising Association, Asociacin de Editores de Diarios Espaoles (Spanish Newspaper Publishers Association, AEDE), Association of Communications Agencies of Russia, Bundesverband Deutscher Zeitungsverleger (Federal Association of German Newspaper Publishers, BDZV), InfoAdex, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
484
Circulation spending
Paid newspaper unit circulation (volume) declined during the past five years, in part because of the shift in readers to online sources and in part because of competition from free dailies. Many people read free dailies in addition to paid dailies, although in some cases free dailies are cutting into paid circulation. From 2004 to 2007, circulation of free dailies jumped by 16.3 million. During the same period, paid circulation fell by 3.6 million. Beginning in 2008 and extending through the next five years, we expect competition from free dailies to have less of an impact on paid circulation. Circulation of free dailies fell by 1.1 percent in 2008, and the weak print advertising market will continue to limit print runs for free dailies. We project free daily circulation to fall from 27 million in 2008 to 25.8 million in 2013. Despite the decline in free circulation in 2008, the rate of decline in paid circulation accelerated to 1.7 percent from a compound annual average of 1 percent from 2004 to 2007. Falling disposable income is leading to consumer cutbacks in many categories, one of which is newspapers. Newspapers also are affected by demographics. On one hand, younger people have a much lower incidence of newspaper readership than older people do. On the other hand, the population in EMEA is aging and the number of people in the principal newspaper demographic is growing. On balance, demographic trends should have a favorable impact on newspaper circulation, although in the near term, that impact will be offset by the declining economy.
The recession will lead to a sharper, 2.2 percent decline in paid circulation in 2009 followed by a 1.9 percent decrease in 2010. Thereafter, improved economic conditions, rising disposable income, and favorable demographic trends will dampen further decreases, although they will not interrupt the trend away from print and toward the Internet. We project paid circulation volume to fall by 2.2 percent in 2009 and at a 1.3 percent compound annual rate to 114.5 million in 2013 from 122.5 million in 2008. Overall unit circulation, including free dailies, also will fall at a 1.3 percent compound annual rate: from 149.5 million in 2008 to 140.3 million in 2013. During 200407, price increases offset decreases in paid unit circulation, and overall circulation spending rose. In 2008, unit circulation declined at a faster rate, and circulation spending fell by 0.2 percent. In the UK, price cuts by publishers in an attempt to retain circulation led to a 3.5 percent decrease in circulation spending. We expect that above-average decreases in paid circulation during the next two years will lead to further declines in circulation spending. Thereafter, as paid unit circulation falls at a slower rate, circulation spending will begin to increase. We look for a 0.7 percent gain in 2011 and increases averaging 1.1 percent during 201213. Circulation spending in EMEA will total an estimated $33 billion in 2013, up 0.4 percent on a compound annual basis from $32.3 billion in 2008.
485
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008p
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
200913 CAGR
2,420 1,505 1,320 2,210 7,900 28,193 618 750 6,123 4,028 2,855 700 4,117 3,649 2,490 17,020 85,898 1,795 1,465 2,115 1,150 23,265 4,255 34,045 380 6,670 1,250 8,300 128,243 11,000 139,243
2,430 1,485 1,285 2,195 7,775 27,403 593 767 6,130 3,886 2,782 673 4,033 3,600 2,409 17,105 84,551 1,883 1,455 2,322 1,140 22,750 4,760 34,310 375 6,700 1,275 8,350 127,211 18,000 145,211
2,360 1,445 1,260 2,180 7,650 26,960 565 775 6,130 3,777 2,700 660 3,977 3,525 2,351 16,650 82,965 1,850 1,445 2,370 1,132 22,600 4,900 34,297 370 6,725 1,300 8,395 125,657 26,000 151,657
2,410 1,438 1,233 2,160 7,613 26,452 576 772 6,112 3,701 2,643 670 4,030 3,402 2,303 16,074 81,589 1,853 1,325 2,096 1,165 22,500 5,010 33,949 370 7,400 1,335 9,105 124,643 27,300 151,943
2,400 1,430 1,205 2,140 7,575 25,820 565 765 6,090 3,620 2,585 660 4,016 3,300 2,250 15,500 79,921 1,840 1,275 1,950 1,156 22,400 5,023 33,644 365 7,300 1,310 8,975 122,540 27,000 149,540
2,350 1,400 1,185 2,120 7,525 25,200 550 755 6,040 3,540 2,525 645 3,940 3,200 2,200 14,925 78,100 1,820 1,200 1,800 1,105 22,300 4,835 33,060 355 7,000 1,280 8,635 119,795 26,000 145,795
2,320 1,390 1,170 2,100 7,470 24,700 535 745 6,000 3,460 2,470 635 3,890 3,125 2,150 14,375 76,535 1,800 1,130 1,700 1,065 22,200 4,685 32,580 350 6,750 1,250 8,350 117,465 25,000 142,465
2,310 1,380 1,160 2,080 7,420 24,300 525 740 5,970 3,380 2,415 630 3,900 3,075 2,100 14,000 75,385 1,790 1,100 1,650 1,040 22,100 4,725 32,405 350 6,775 1,245 8,370 116,160 25,000 141,160
2,300 1,370 1,150 2,060 7,370 24,000 515 737 5,950 3,300 2,370 627 3,920 3,025 2,050 13,700 74,444 1,780 1,080 1,625 1,030 22,000 4,835 32,350 350 6,850 1,255 8,455 115,249 25,250 140,499
2,290 1,360 1,140 2,040 7,320 23,700 505 735 5,940 3,220 2,330 625 3,940 2,975 2,000 13,450 73,570 1,770 1,070 1,600 1,025 21,900 4,950 32,315 350 7,000 1,275 8,625 114,510 25,750 140,260
0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 1.7 2.2 0.8 0.5 2.3 2.1 1.1 0.4 2.1 2.3 2.8 1.6 0.8 3.4 3.9 2.4 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.3 0.9 1.3
Includes weekly papers. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Asociacin de Editores de Diarios Espaoles (Spanish Newspaper Publishers Association, AEDE), Bundesverband Deutscher Zeitungsverleger (Federal Association of German Newspaper Publishers, BDZV), German Audit Bureau of Circulations, Mediebedriftenes Landsforening (Norwegian Media Businesses Association), PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates, World Newspaper Association, ZDKP
486
At average 2007 exchange rates. Includes weekly papers. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Asociacin de Editores de Diarios Espaoles (Spanish Newspaper Publishers Association, AEDE), Bundesverband Deutscher Zeitungsverleger (Federal Association of German Newspaper Publishers, BDZV), PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
487
Asia Pacific
billion in 2013 from $51.7 billion in 2008, a 0.1 percent compound annual increase. Growth will be generated by circulation spending, which will increase from $25.4 billion in 2008 to $26.6 billion in 2013, a 0.9 percent rate compounded annually. Advertising will fall at an 0.8 percent compound annual rate to $25.3 billion in 2013 from $26.3 billion in 2008. Print advertising will decline by 12.2 percent in 2009 and at a 1.4 percent compound annual rate through 2013, falling to $23.6 billion in 2013 from $25.3 billion in 2008. Digital advertising will rise from $1 billion in 2008 to $1.7 billion in 2013, an 11 percent compound annual increase.
Overview
We project the newspaper publishing industry in Asia Pacific to decline during the next two years by a cumulative 7.2 percent and then recoup lost revenues during the subsequent three years, expanding to $51.9
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
488
Japan is the largest market in the region, at $20.7 billion in 2008, and has the highest incidence of newspaper sales in the world, at 624 purchases per 1,000 people. Newspapers in Japan are prohibited from discounting prices, and they operate under a resale price maintenance system, which allows them to determine the subscription fees that delivery agents are permitted to charge. Delivery services reach the entire country, which contributes to the high level of readership. The market fell by 5.4 percent in 2008, the result of a declining economy that led to a 13.9 percent decline in print advertising. With economic conditions deteriorating, we expect a much steeper, 25 percent decrease in print advertising in 2009, with decreases extending through 2012. Spending will fall to an estimated $17.5 billion in 2013, a 3.4 percent compound annual decline. The PRC is the next-largest market, at $11.3 billion, up 11.9 percent from 2007. Advertising associated with the Beijing Olympics and rising circulation fueled growth. A slowing economy and the loss of Olympicsrelated advertising will lead to a 0.6 percent decline in 2009. We look for steadily improving growth thereafter, helped by growing unit sales, an emerging digital advertising market, and a rebound in print advertising. Spending will rise to $13.9 billion in 2013, a 4.2 percent compound annual increase.
Australia is the third-largest market, at $4.7 billion in 2008, followed by South Korea at $3.7 billion and India at $3.2 billion. In Australia, display advertising is holding up reasonably well despite the weak economy, helped by strong retail campaigns in late 2008, while classified advertising is falling rapidly. Overall spending rose by 1 percent in 2008. We expect a reversal during the next three years as print advertising falls and as unit circulation declines because of readers shifting to online editions. Spending will recover during 201213 and return to the 2008 level by 2013. The economic downturn led to a 1.2 percent decline in South Korea in 2008. Print advertising fell by 3.7 percent, and circulation spending continued to dip because free dailies are cutting into paid circulation. We look for continued declines during the next three years and a 0.9 percent compound annual decrease through 2013 to $3.5 billion. Newspaper market growth in India slowed to 8.4 percent following years of double-digit gains. We look for growth to drop to 4.1 percent in 2009 and to remain at mid-single-digit increases through 2013. We expect India to be the fastest-growing market in Asia Pacific during the next five years, with a projected 5.7 percent compound annual increase to $4.2 billion in 2013.
489
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Print advertising
Print advertising fell by 0.8 percent in 2008, the result of double-digit declines in Taiwan and Japan, as well as decreases in Australia, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand that offset increases elsewhere, including a 17.9 percent rise in the PRC, a 10.7 percent increase in India, and double-digit gains in Indonesia, Pakistan, and Vietnam. Newspapers are particularly sensitive to the economy because a significant component consists of classified advertising, which reacts more quickly and more strongly to economic fluctuations than traditional brand advertising does. With economic conditions deteriorating throughout the region, we look for the market to worsen in each country, with steep declines projected for a number of countries. In Japan, whose economy is experiencing
its sharpest decline in decades, we expect print advertising to fall by 25 percent in 2009. We project a 30 percent decrease in Taiwan and double-digit declines in Hong Kong, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand. We also expect slowdowns in India and the PRC, whose economies have been growing rapidly in recent years. We project a 5.3 percent decrease in the PRC in 2009, in part because of slower economic growth and in part because of the loss of Olympics-related advertising that boosted spending in 2008. In India, we expect an 8 percent increase in 2009, largest in the region. In early 2009, the government announced that 100 percent foreign direct investment in facsimile editions of foreign newspapers would be permitted. Previously, foreign newspapers could be sold in India only if the foreign direct investment was no
490
higher than 26 percent. The new rule should open up the market to more papers and should provide a boost to advertising once economic conditions improve. We expect India to have the fastest-growing print advertising market in Asia Pacific during the next five years, with an 8.1 percent compound annual increase. We expect Australia to hold up relatively well compared with other countries, in part because the volatile classified advertising category constitutes a lower share of total print advertising than it does in many other countries and in part because publishers have invested in color printing and magazine inserts that appeal to advertisers. Nevertheless, the economy will reduce demand, and we project a 6.6 percent decrease in 2009. Taiwans newspaper market is suffering badly from sagging sales and competition from broadcast and electronic media. This has been reflected in the demise of the financially troubled China Times Groupthe islands largest newspaper group, with two newspaper dailies and three TV channelswhich in November 2008 was bought as a personal investment by the chairman of snack maker Want Want Group. With print businesses suffering from declining advertising revenues, both the China Times Group and Hong Kongs Next Media Group, which publishes local editions of the Apple Daily newspaper and Next magazine, are looking to diversify into TV in Taiwan. However, Taiwans media regulator, the National Communications Commission, has expressed concern about the integration of print and television, and it plans to review the media ownership rules. In Indonesia, spending on newspaper advertising rose by 12 percent in 2008, boosted by political campaign advertising around regional and local elections. With the economic decline expected to continue beyond 2009, we project a further 3.6 percent decrease in 2010, with more modest declines or stronger growth projected in each country.
Thereafter, improved economic conditions will lead to a rebound in print advertising. The print advertising market also will be helped by rising circulation. In addition to rising paid circulation in a number of countries most notably, India and the PRCgrowing circulation of free dailies, particularly in Hong Kong, Malaysia, and South Korea, is contributing to circulation growth. Although slowing in the near term, we expect modest growth in both free and paid circulation to provide a boost over the longer run. Total unit circulation will expand at a 1.6 percent compound annual rate to 348.6 million in 2013 from 321.8 million in 2008.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
The combination of improved economic conditions and rising unit circulation will lead to a rebound in print advertising during 201113 that will average 3.3 percent compounded annually. That improvement will not offset the near-term decline, and print advertising will remain lower in 2013 than in 2008, falling by 1.4 percent compounded annually from $25.3 billion in 2008 to $23.6 billion in 2013.
491
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Advertising Standards Authority, Commercial Economic Advisory Service of Australia, Dentsu, Korean Federation of Advertising Agencies, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Paid circulation
Unit circulation Asia Pacific has the highest paid newspaper unit circulation in the world, at 309 million in 2008. The PRC at 107 million and India at 85 million together account for 62 percent of that total and are the two largest markets in the world in newspaper circulation. Moreover, in contrast with EMEA and North America, paid circulation in Asia Pacific has been rising. Paid circulation rose at a 2.5 percent compound annual rate from 2004 to 2008. In the PRC, paid unit circulation rose by nearly 19 million from 2004 to 2008, helped by an expanding economy that supported more titles. We expect paid
unit circulation to increase by an additional 14.5 million during the next five years, a 2.6 percent compound annual gain. Paid circulation in India rose by 11 million from 2004 to 2008, bolstered by hundreds of new titles entering the market. The relaxation of foreign ownership restrictions also contributed to growth in India. Indian publications can now include up to 20 percent of their content from foreign publications. In addition, foreign companies can own up to 26 percent of Indian publications, which will attract foreign investment. We project paid circulation in India to reach 100 million by 2013, a 3.3 percent compound annual increase.
492
The PRC and India will provide most of the growth in paid circulation, together adding 29.5 million during the next five years. Paid unit circulation in the rest of the region decreased by 479,000 from 2004 to 2008, and we expect a 4.2 million decline during the next five years, 3.5 million of which will occur in Japan. In Japan, falling population and the shift of print readers to the Internet is hurting the newspaper market over the longer run, and in the near term, the declining economy will further reduce paid circulation. From 2004 to 2008, paid circulation in Japan fell by 2.6 million. We expect a 2-million decline during the next two years alone, in large part because of the economy. During the following three years, we project a more modest, 1.5 million decrease. Although declining in total, Japans population is aging, which will help dampen newspaper circulation erosion, because older people have a higher incidence of newspaper readership. In the Philippines, the three major Philippine broadsheets maintained their circulation levels in the fourth quarter of 2008 despite the financial crisis that broke in September 2008. Excluding India, Japan, and the PRC, paid circulation for the remaining countries in Asia Pacific rose by 2.1
million from 2004 to 2008. We expect that pattern to reverse in the near term as the economy declines, followed by a pickup in subsequent years as economic conditions improve. Nevertheless, paid circulation in other countries will be lower in 2013 than in 2008, because migration of readers to the Internet limits the recovery. For the region as a whole, paid unit circulation will increase at a 1.6 percent compound annual rate to 334.1 million in 2013.
493
Circulation spending Circulation spending rose by 1.7 percent in 2008. We expect increases averaging only 0.1 percent annually during the next two years as growth in unit circulation slows because of the economy. We then look for circulation spending to average 1.5 percent compounded annually from 2011 to 2013 as economic conditions improve.
For the forecast period as a whole, circulation spending will rise at a 0.9 percent compound annual rate to $26.6 billion in 2013 from $25.4 billion in 2008.
494
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Digital advertising
Digital advertising in Asia Pacific is concentrated in Australia, Japan, the PRC, and South Korea, which together constituted 94 percent of the total market in 2008. Japan is the leader, at $551 million in 2008, 55 percent of the Asia Pacific total. A number of publishers in Japan have joined forces to operate joint Web sites. Japan also has the largest online advertising market in Asia Pacific, and publishers are tapping into that market. Nevertheless, the adverse economy in Japan will reduce overall newspaper advertising, including Web site advertising. We project a 3.8 percent decline in 2009 and a modest, 1.5 percent rise in 2010. We expect faster growth thereafter as economic conditions ease. By 2013, digital advertising will total an estimated $717 million, up 5.4 percent compounded annually from 2008.
In the PRC, the 200510 Five-Year Plan calls for publishers to develop online newspapers. Print publishers have been selling ads on their Web sites as well, and a rapidly growing online advertising market will boost newspaper Web site advertising. We project a 21.7 percent compound annual increase to $363 million in 2013 from $136 million in 2008. In general, Web site traffic is increasing, and the Internet is attracting advertising. We expect publishers to participate in that growth and project digital advertising in newspapers to increase to $1.7 billion in 2013 from $1 billion in 2008, an 11 percent compound annual increase.
495
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
496
Total newspaper advertising Digital advertising will constitute 6.7 percent of newspaper advertising in 2013 from 3.8 percent in 2008. Nevertheless, growth in digital advertising will not be large enough to offset declines in print advertising.
We project overall advertising to decline by 14.2 percent during the next two years and at an 0.8 percent compound annual rate through 2013, falling to $25.3 billion from $26.3 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
497
Latin America
Print advertising will fall by 9 percent from 2008 to 2010 and then increase by 14.5 percent during the subsequent three years, averaging an 0.8 percent compound annual growth rate for the entire forecast period from $3.7 billion in 2008 to $3.9 billion in 2013. Digital advertising will total an estimated $183 million in 2013, growing at a 29.1 percent compound annual rate from a small base. Total newspaper advertising will increase by 1.5 percent compounded annually from $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion. Circulation spending will expand at a 2.5 percent compound annual rate to $3.4 billion in 2013 from $3 billion in 2008.
Overview
We project newspaper publishing in Latin America will decrease by a relatively modest, 3.1 percent during the next two years and then rise to $7.5 billion in 2013, a compound annual gain of 1.9 percent from $6.8 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
498
The newspaper market has held up better in Latin America than in other regions, growing by 11.3 percent in 2008, the second consecutive double-digit increase. Newspapers face less competition from the Internet in Latin America, and growing circulation of free dailies has been fueling print advertising. Brazil is the dominant market, at $3.8 billion in 2008. Argentina, Colombia, and Mexico were well behind, at
less than $800 million each, followed by Chile at $607 million and Venezuela at $126 million. The newspaper market in Brazil is booming, posting a 19.5 percent increase in 2008. High inflation accounted for Argentinas 9.3 percent increase and Venezuelas 4.1 percent increase. Mexico slowed to a 2.8 percent increase, and Chile and Colombia declined as well.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Print advertising
Print newspaper advertising in Latin America rose by 7 percent in 2008, much stronger than in other regions although down from double-digit gains during 200507. Double-digit growth in Brazil and Argentina offset decreases in Chile and Colombia. In other regions, migration of readers and advertisers from the print media to the Internet has adversely affected the print media, particularly newspapers that have lost classified advertising to the Internet. In Latin America, the Internet has not had as much of a competitive impact. Until recently, broadband penetration has been low, and advertisers have not shifted spending to online to the degree that they have in other regions. Print advertising has also benefited from large gains in unit circulation. Paid circulation rose by 10 percent in 2008, and overall circulation increased by 11.8 percent
when free papers are included. Free papers boosted circulation growth by mid- to high-single-digit rates during 200507. The overall gain in unit circulation has made newspapers a more appealing medium for advertisers.
499
Despite those underlying strengths, the economy still plays an important role. We expect the recession to lead to decreases in print advertising in each country except Argentina during the next two years. In Argentina, inflation-adjusted advertising will be down sharply, but high inflation rates will lead to nominal increases of less than 1 percent. Overall, we expect a 6.7 percent decline in print advertising in 2009 and a 2.5 percent decrease in 2010. Also, high inflation is masking underlying weakness in Argentina and, to a lesser degree, in other countries, making nominal growth appear stronger.
We then expect a rebound in the economy to lead to a rebound in print advertising. We are projecting a 1.7 percent rise in 2011, with increases accelerating to 4.1 percent in 2012 and 8.1 percent in 2013. Those gains will be less than the growth achieved during the recent past, because we expect that growing broadband penetration will make the Internet a more potent competitive factor during 201213 than it is at present. For the forecast period as a whole, we project print advertising to expand at an 0.8 percent compound annual rate to $3.9 billion in 2013 from $3.7 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Newspaper circulation
Paid circulation in Brazil rose by 34 percent during the past two years and by 49 percent since 2004. Newspaper circulation in Brazil appears to be highly sensitive to changes in disposable income. Unit circulation fell by 21 percent from 2000 to 2003, when the economy was declining. Since then, strong growth in disposable income led to the increase in circulation. It was not until 2008 that unit circulation exceeded its previous peak in 2000. With circulation having recovered lost ground, we do not anticipate growth to approach the levels of the past four years. We expect relatively flat unit circulation during the next two
years, with somewhat faster increases thereafter. Paid circulation growth will average a more sustainable, 1.8 percent compound annual increase during the next five years to 10.2 million in 2013 from 9.3 million in 2008. The remaining countries in Latin America have exhibited a much less volatile pattern. Paid circulation grew at a 1.5 percent compound annual rate from 2004 to 2008, reflecting expanding economies. We look for decreases during the next two years and modest growth during the subsequent three years. By 2013, paid circulation for the rest of the region will total an estimated 8.1 million, up 0.2 percent compounded annually from 2008.
500
For the region as a whole, unit circulation of paid dailies will grow at a 1.1 percent compound annual rate to 18.3 million in 2013 from 17.4 million in 2008. We expect circulation spending to advance at a 2.5 percent compound annual rate, rising to $3.4 billion in 2013 from $3 billion in 2008. That projected gain will represent a marked slowdown from the 9.2 percent compound annual increase achieved from 2004 to 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
501
Digital advertising
Digital advertising on newspaper Web sites is not yet a material component of the market. In 2008, digital advertising constituted only 1.4 percent of total newspaper advertising. We expect digital advertising to become more important during the next five years as broadband penetration expands, which in turn will create opportunities for publishers to generate advertising revenues from Web sites. There were more than five times as many broadband households in Latin America in 2008 as in 2004. We expect that during the next five years, the broadband universe will more than double to nearly 44 million from 20 million in 2008. As the broadband universe passes 30 million in 2011, its impact will become significant. For newspapers, the Internet will begin to be a competitive factor, attracting advertisers and readers and dampening growth in print advertising in unit circulation.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
As the overall Internet advertising market expands, newspapers will have more to gain from establishing a strong online presence and actively selling advertising. We expect digital advertising on newspaper Web sites to increase from $51 million in 2008 to $183 million in 2013.
2007 3 13 3 6 25
2008p 4 29 1 4 12 1 51
2009 6 41 1 5 17 1 71
2010 8 53 1 6 22 2 92
2011 10 67 2 6 27 2 114
2012 13 83 2 8 34 3 143
502
Digital advertising will raise overall compound annual advertising growth from 0.8 percent for print alone to 1.5 percent. Total newspaper advertising will rise from $3.8 billion in 2008 to $4.1 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
503
504
506 Summary 507 North America 515 Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA) 528 Asia Pacific 538 Latin America
Summary
books will expand at a 0.4 percent compound annual rate from $41.7 billion to $42.5 billion. The overall print market will increase to $114.4 billion in 2013 from $114.2 billion in 2008. Electronic books totaled $1.1 billion in 2008, accounting for 0.9 percent of total consumer and educational books. Spending on electronic books will rise to $4.1 billion in 2013, and the electronic share will increase to 3.4 percent. Electronic consumer books will total $2.3 billion in 2013, 3.1 percent of total consumer book spending, and electronic educational books will generate $1.7 billion in 2013, 3.9 percent of the overall educational book market. Consumer book sales as a whole, including print and electronic, will increase from $73.2 billion in 2008 to $74.2 billion in 2013, a 0.3 percent compound annual increase. The educational book market will grow at a 1 percent compound annual rate to $44.3 billion from $42.1 billion in 2008.
Principal drivers
The economic cycle will influence spending during the next five years, leading to near-term decreases and a subsequent rebound. Elementary and high school textbooks are the most cyclically sensitive component, while college textbooks have a countercyclical element and will benefit from people returning to college to improve their job prospects while employment opportunities are limited. Historically, consumer books have shown relatively little sensitivity to the economy, but we expect that pattern to change during the current downturn because of its relatively severe impact on consumer spending. Publishers and booksellers will look to mitigate the decline by holding prices steady or offering lower prices, so spending will fall faster than unit sales. Independent of the impact of the economy, the market will benefit from digitization projects. Electronic browsing technologies will raise awareness of titles and stimulate consumer book sales, while new portable eReaders will boost electronic book sales in selected countries.
Data for the consumer and educational book publishing market by region and for the consumer and educational book publishing market by component can be found within the Executive Summary on page 52.
506
North America
Total print sales will fall from $32.1 billion in 2008 to $31.7 billion in 2013, declining by 0.2 percent compounded annually. The electronic book market will expand from $522 million in 2008 to $2.1 billion in 2013, a 31.6 percent compound annual increase. Consumer electronic books will increase at a 44 percent compound annual rate to $1.3 billion in 2013 from $203 million in 2008. Educational electronic books will total $803 million in 2013 from $319 million in 2008, a 20.3 percent compound annual gain. Consumer books as a whole (print plus electronic) will decrease by 4.5 percent during the next two years and then rise to $21.5 billion in 2013, returning to its level in 2008. The overall educational book market will grow at a 2.1 percent compound annual rate to $12.2 billion in 2013 from $11 billion in 2008.
Overview
We project spending on consumer and educational books will decline by 2.5 percent during the next two years and then expand to $33.8 billion in 2013, a 0.7 percent compound annual increase from $32.6 billion in 2008. Consumer print books will decrease by a cumulative 6.3 percent during the next three years and will decline at a 1 percent compound annual rate through 2013 to $20.3 billion from $21.3 billion in 2008. Print educational textbook spending will rise from $10.7 billion in 2008 to $11.4 billion in 2013, a 1.3 percent compound annual increase.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
507
We expect both the United States and Canada to decline by 2.5 percent during the next two years. We expect Canada to be somewhat faster growing from 2010 to 2013, with a projected 6.8 percent increase compared with 6.2 percent for the US because of a stronger rebound in print sales and a pickup in electronic educational books.
For the five-year forecast period as a whole, we expect the United States to grow at a 0.7 percent compound annual rate to $32 billion from $30.9 billion in 2008. Canada will expand from $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion, an 0.8 percent increase compounded annually.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
508
Consumer books
Print Consumer book print sales fell 5.7 percent in 2008, the result of a 6 percent drop in the United States and flat sales in Canada. The absence of a Harry Potter title that had contributed to the 7.6 percent increase in 2007 led to the sharp drop in the US in 2008. In Canada, the flat sales were comparable to the 2006 experience, the previous postHarry Potter year. Although not as cyclical as other segments of the entertainment and media industry, consumer books are being hurt by the adverse economy. Steep discounts are limiting unit volume declines but are cutting into revenue. We expect print sales to fall during the next two years in Canada and the next three years in the United States. Over the longer run, we expect that digital browsing will provide a lift to the print market. In late 2008, the dispute between Google and the Authors Guild and the American Association of Publishers was settled. Google has been developing a digital library (Google Book Search) that would include books in search results, thereby assisting consumers in finding books that meet their interests, which in turn can generate incremental print sales. Under the settlement, Google agreed to pay authors $60 for each title that had already been scanned. Google also is establishing a Books Rights Registry that will develop a database of rightsholders and set up a system for paying royalties in the future. In other provisions, Google users will now be able to access up to 20 percent of the content of out-of-print books. For books in print, only snippets will be available unless rightsholders choose to allow more content to be viewed. Google Book Search also will allow users to purchase books online. In addition to Google, major publishers such as Random House, Simon & Schuster, HarperCollins, and Penguin have digital versions of their titles on their Web sites that visitors can browseand in some cases download. These services are intended to replicate the bookstore browsing experience in an online environment and to generate print sales. These
initiatives are intended to attract interest to new books and to drive print sales. In Canada, the market in 2008 was affected by the Canadian Copyright Act, which requires that list prices of imported books be no more than 10 percent above the Canadian dollar equivalent of the list price charged in the country of origin. Otherwise, bookstores would be permitted to acquire their books from abroad. Historically, the Canadian dollar has been valued lower than the US dollar, and US publishers typically had a higher list price in Canada to reflect that difference. The appreciation of the Canadian dollar in late 2007 and early 2008 created problems for the two-price policy because the Canadian price was high enough to trigger the provision that allowed bookstores to acquire books directly from the US. During the latter part of 2008, the Canadian dollar fell in value against the US dollar, and the issue subsided. Prices of US books are now higher than in early 2008, putting less pressure on Canadian publishers. We expect that an expanding economy during 201113 will raise disposable income, which will help consumer books. The various digital browsing options should generate incremental sales of print books, particularly for special-interest titles that consumers previously may not have been aware of. At the same time, the expansion of an electronic book market that offers titles at a lower cost compared with print will provide incremental competition and will limit the expansion during the latter part of the forecast period. We project the US market to decline by 6.4 percent through 2011 and then increase by 1.2 percent during 201213 to $19.3 billion, leaving spending 1.1 percent lower on a compound annual basis from $20.4 billion in 2008. In Canada, we expect a 4.1 percent decrease during the next two years and a subsequent 4.9 percent increase. Spending will total an estimated $994 million in 2013 from $989 million in 2008, a 0.1 percent compound annual increase. For North America as a whole, print consumer books will decrease from $21.3 billion in 2008 to $20.3 billion in 2013, a 1 percent compound annual decline.
509
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Electronic The electronic book market in the United States was bolstered by the introduction of new eReaders. The Kindle from Amazon sold an estimated 500,000 units in its first year, putting it ahead of the iPod, which sold fewer than 400,000 units in its first year. The Sony Reader sold around 300,000 in its first year. Given the high price points, $300 to $500, and the weak economy, these sales levels suggest an interest in the technology. The new devices use electronic ink, which reads like paper and is much easier on the eyes than backlit images used on previous portable devices. They can also be read in full sunlight. The Kindle allows readers to download books wirelessly directly to the device, which promotes impulse buying, while the Sony Reader requires books to be downloaded online and then transferred to the Reader. The Kindle also allows readers to sample the first dozen pages or so before buying. Books are around $10, with lower prices for older titles. Kindle users appear to be avid buyers. Kindle downloads accounted for 20 percent of total sales for the Oprah Book Clubhelped by Oprah Winfreys promotion of the Kindleand 6 percent of all Amazon sales of books available in both print and via the Kindle. In early 2009, Amazon introduced an application that will allow books to be downloaded to iPhones and iPods and read on those devices. Sony in late 2008 launched a next-generation Reader, the PRS-7000, which has a touch screen and more memory than the previous versions.
In Canada, Indigo introduced an electronic book service, Shortcovers, which allows users to download books to smart phones and computers. We expect that the electronic book market will evolve along the lines of the digital download music market. Initially, competing services had limited content. Over time, virtually all music became available on all services. Currently, Amazon provides more than 240,000 titles through its Kindle service, and Shortcovers has 50,000 titles. Some of the leading titles, such as the Harry Potter series or the John Grisham books, are not yet available. We expect over time, most books by most authors will be available in electronic form on all services. We also expect hardware prices to fall, the typical pattern for new technologies. As these trends develop, we expect the electronic book market to expand. We do not expect electronic books to reach the share of the market achieved by digital music, because songs on an album have a stand-alone appeal that is not comparable to chapters in a book that do not have a significant stand-alone demand. We project consumer electronic book sales in the United States to increase from $200 million in 2008 to $1.3 billion in 2013. In Canada, which has Shortcovers but neither the Kindle nor the Sony Reader, the consumer electronic book market is just developing. We expect spending to increase from $3 million in 2008 to $9 million in 2013. Overall consumer electronic sales will expand from $203 million in 2008 to $1.3 billion in 2013, a 44 percent compound annual increase.
510
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Total consumer books Gains in electronic book sales will not be large enough to offset near-term declines in print. In the United States, we project overall consumer book sales to fall by 4.5 percent during the next two years and then grow by 4.6 percent from 2010 to 2013. For the five-year forecast period, spending will be essentially flat at around $20.5 billion. Electronic books will account for 6.1 percent of total sales in 2013 from 1 percent in 2008.
In Canada, overall consumer book spending will fall by 3.9 percent from 2008 to 2010 and then rise by 5.2 percent from 2010 to 2013. The overall consumer book market will rise at a 0.2 percent compound annual rate to $1 billion from $992 million in 2008. Electronic books will account for 0.9 percent of consumer book spending in 2013 from 0.3 percent in 2008. The total consumer book market for North America will total $21.5 billion in both 2008 and 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Educational books
Print The economic downturn will lead to falling tax revenue and cutbacks in local government spending. Because schools are a major component of local governments, we expect there will be cutbacks in education. Elementary and high school (elhi) textbooks likely will be affected. Book purchases can be postponed, and we expect they will be. In the United States, the stimulus package enacted in early 2009 will provide states with federal funding, some of which will support education. Federal funding will mitigate the impact of the declining economy on
state and local governments but will not offset it. We expect that state and local outlays will be reduced. With respect to the elhi market, spending on print books fell by 4.1 percent in 2008, and we expect a steeper, 5.7 percent decrease in 2009 followed by a further 2.4 percent drop in 2010. The expected economic recovery should lead to improved tax revenues during 201113. With purchases having been delayed in many areas, books will be older and there should be pent-up demand for new books. We expect that print sales will expand during that period, rising by 4.9 percent. Elhi spending in 2013 at $4.3 billion will be 0.7 percent lower on a compound annual basis from $4.4 billion in 2008.
511
are reporting significant increases in applications for the fall 2009 academic school year. We expect rising enrollment in the near term to boost the college textbook market. Spending on college textbooks in the United States rose by 2.7 percent in 2008. We expect increases of 3 percent or higher during the next two years, followed by annual gains in the 2.4- to 2.5-percent range during 201113. Print college textbook spending in the United States will rise from $5.7 billion in 2008 to $6.5 billion in 2013, a 2.7 percent compound annual increase. The overall print educational book market in the United States will expand at a 1.3 percent compound annual rate from $10.1 billion in 2008 to $10.8 billion in 2013. We do not have a breakout in Canada between elhi and college textbooks. Nevertheless, Canada is experiencing a similar pattern. The economic downturn is boosting college textbook sales while hurting elhi sales. On balance, we expect Canada to experience a 0.9 percent decrease in 2009, a flat market in 2010, and increases totaling 6.1 percent during 201113. For the forecast period as a whole, print educational book spending in Canada will increase from $646 million to $679 million, a 1 percent compound annual gain. Print educational books for North America as a whole will grow at a 1.3 percent compound annual rate from $10.7 billion in 2008 to $11.4 billion in 2013.
Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, US Census Bureau International Database, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Demographic trends will have a positive impact on the elhi market in the United States and a negative impact in Canada. In the US, the size of the 6- to 17-yearold population will grow by 2 percent during the next five years, which means that when new books are purchased, more copies will be needed, which will raise spending. In Canada, by contrast, the size of the 6- to 17-year-old population will fall by 4.3 percent, which will cut into spending on elhi books as fewer copies will be needed. In contrast with elhi sales, the college textbook market in the United States is doing relatively well. The college market has a countercyclical element to it. People who have become unemployed often go to college to improve their skills and credentials and/or prepare for a new career. People who have yet to enter the labor force often pursue advanced degrees when current employment opportunities are poor. Colleges in the US
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
512
Electronic Electronic books are thriving in the college market in the United States. Electronic educational books are not simply digital versions of print books. Instead, they include interactive learning tools that provide enhanced value. A number of colleges have institutional subscriptions through Google that provide online access to library collections throughout the world. Colleges such as Princeton and Yale have deals with Ingram Digital for access to Ingrams Search and Discover software that allows students to access books online. Duke University introduced its e-Duke Books Scholarly Collection in early 2009. Subscribers will be able to access the scholarly titles published by Duke. There also is a growing direct-to-student electronic book market. Colleges are assigning electronic textbooks instead of print versions as a way to save costs. In 2007, a number of major college textbook publishers formed CourseSmart to promote electronic textbooks. CourseSmart provides more than 2,000 titles and the software permits students to highlight
passages and make notes. Prices are around half those of print versions. The educational electronic book market in the United States totaled $310 million in 2008, virtually all of which was at the college level. That total includes spending by students and subscriptions by colleges. We expect this market to expand to $769 million in 2013, a 19.9 percent compound annual increase. Canadas educational electronic book market is just in its development stage. College students are accustomed to accessing material digitally, and publishers have an incentive to offer electronic books because they are less expensive to manufacture and distribute. We expect the electronic textbook market in Canada to grow to $34 million in 2013 from $9 million in 2008, a 30.5 percent compound annual increase from a small base. The overall educational electronic book market in North America will total $803 million in 2013 from $319 million in 2008, a 20.3 percent compound annual increase.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Total educational books When electronic books are included, the overall educational book market in North America will grow at a 2.1 percent compound annual rate to $12.2 billion in 2013 from $11 billion in 2008. The US will expand from $10.4 billion to $11.5 billion, also a 2.1 percent increase compounded annually. Electronic books will constitute 10.3 percent of the college textbook market in 2013 from 5 percent in 2008.
When we include elhi books, the overall share for electronic books is 6.7 percent in 2013 from 3 percent in 2008. The educational book market in Canada will increase from $655 million in 2008 to $713 million in 2013, a 1.7 percent compound annual increase. Electronic books will constitute 4.8 percent of spending in 2013 compared with 1.4 percent in 2008.
513
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
514
on a compound annual basis during the forecast period as a whole, falling from $16.6 billion in 2008 to $15.8 billion in 2013. The total print book market will decrease by 0.7 percent compounded annually to $48.4 billion in 2013 from $50.2 billion in 2008. The electronic book market will increase from $29 million in 2008 to $491 million in 2013. Consumer electronic books will total $148 million in 2013, and educational electronic books will reach $343 million. The overall consumer book market, including both print and electronic, will fall at a 0.5 percent compound annual rate to $32.8 billion. The overall educational book market will total $16.1 billion in 2013, a 0.6 percent compound annual decline from 2008.
Overview
We project that the consumer and educational book publishing market in EMEA will decrease by 6.6 percent during the next two years and at a 0.6 percent compound annual rate through 2013, falling from $50.3 billion in 2008 to $48.9 billion in 2013. Print consumer books will mirror that trend with a 6.5 percent decrease through 2010 and a 0.6 percent compound annual decline to $32.6 billion in 2013 from $33.6 billion in 2008. Spending on print educational books will fall by 7.5 percent during the next three years and by 1 percent
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
515
The consumer and educational book market in Western Europe will decline to $43.5 billion in 2013 from $44.1 billion in 2008, a 0.2 percent compound annual decrease. Central and Eastern Europe will decrease at a 4 percent compound annual rate. Spending will total $3.8 billion in 2013 from $4.7 billion in 2008. Middle East/Africa will edge up from $1.52 billion in 2008 to $1.53 billion in 2013 at a rate of 0.2 percent compounded annually. Germany had the largest consumer and educational book market in EMEA in 2008, at $9.4 billion. France was second, at $8.5 billion, followed by the United Kingdom and Italy at $6.3 billon each, and Spain at $4.5 billion.
We expect comparable patterns in most countries during the next five years, with near-term low-singledigit decreases followed by low-single-digit increases. For each country except Russia, which will experience a precipitous decline in 2009, and Hungary, spending in 2013 will be within one percentage point on a compound annual basis from its level in 2008.
516
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
517
Consumer books
Print books The print/audio consumer book market fell by 1.9 percent in 2008, in large part because of the absence of sales from the final Harry Potter installment that boosted spending by 4.3 percent in 2007. The Harry Potter cycle will no longer play a role in the consumer book market. Historically, consumer books have shown relatively little sensitivity to the economy. On a cost-per-hour basis, books fare well against most other entertainment and media products and have been generally stable during economic downturns. We expect that pattern to change during the current downturn because it is more severe than recent recessions and is leading to steeper cutbacks in consumer spending, which we expect also will affect books. Publishers are looking to mitigate the decline by holding prices steady and in some cases offering lower prices. In countries that permit price competition, booksellers are offering steep discounts. The result is that unit sales are showing only modest declines, with somewhat larger declines in spending. We expect spending to fall by 4.6 percent in 2009 and by an additional 2 percent in 2010. With respect to the long-term pattern for consumer books, these declines will be a significant break in the trend. With respect to many other entertainment and media segments, these projected decreases will be small. While consumer books do not suffer much from economic downturns, they also do not benefit much from economic expansions. We therefore do not expect a dramatic rebound in spending once the economy recovers. Independent of the impact of the economy, the market will benefit from digitization projects that allow readers to browse through books electronically from the
Internet as they might do in a bookstore. Digitization also allows books to be included in online searches through the use of keywords, which will make potential consumers aware of information contained in books that could lead to increased sales. Googles Library Project, introduced in 2006 in Europe, allows browsing of thousands of books. Googles settlement of class-action lawsuits in the United States is having repercussions internationally. Google is setting up a system to pay royalties to authors whose books have been scanned and is devoting resources to contact those authors. On one hand, with a royalty system in place, opposition from authors and publishers is waning. Booksellers, on the other hand, generally view Google as a threat because it could lead to the migration of print books to digital. There are a number of other digital browsing services being introduced in EMEA. In late 2008, a number of national libraries launched Europeana, which consists of a database of more than 2 million books that can be accessed over the Internet. In Germany, the Libreka! project, launched in late 2007, provides a scanning service for participating publishers that assists consumers in finding books. Gallica 2 in France provides digital access to titles from the National Library of France as well as from other copyrighted books. Individual publishers also are introducing digital versions on their Web sites that allow users to sample a book online. We expect that electronic browsing will ultimately enhance the print consumer book market once economic conditions improve. We expect print/audio sales of consumer books to expand by 3.8 percent from 2010 to 2013. For the entire five-year forecast period, near-term declines will offset the subsequent rebound, and spending will fall to $32.6 billion in 2013 from $33.6 billion in 2008, a 0.6 percent compound annual decrease.
518
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Association of Book Publishing and Periodic Publications, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Publishers Association, Spanish Ministry of Culture, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
519
Electronic books The electronic book market in EMEA is not well developed. In countries with strict retail price maintenance (RPM) programs, discounting is either not permitted or very limited. We do not believe people will buy electronic books unless they are less expensive than their print versions. In Germany, for example, a number of new eReaders have been introduced, including Bebook, eSlick, and the PRS-505 from Sony. In 2009, the Txtr is expected to be launched, which would allow users to access a virtual library through a mobile device. Nevertheless, we are currently not projecting a measurable market to emerge because e-books are priced at hardcover rates, which we believe are much too high to generate much activity. We will monitor developments in Germany and in other RPM countries to see whether an electronic book market can emerge. In non-RPM countriesand in countries where RPM provides some price latitude, as in the Netherlandswe expect an electronic book market to become established. The United Kingdom is currently the most active market. In the fall of 2008, the Sony Reader was launched and was being sold through Waterstone. The Kindle from Amazon is expected in 2009. W.H. Smith also sells electronic books.
In the Netherlands, the iLiad e-book reader was launched in December 2007. The iLiad and other new eReaders use electronic ink that reads like paper and is much easier on the eyes than was the previous generation of readers that used liquid crystal display devices. The iLiad has Wi-Fi capability that allows books to be downloaded wirelessly at Wi-Fi hotspots. Titles from Selexyz and Mobipocket can be downloaded to the iLiad. Currently, only English-language books have been digitized, which will limit the market potential. In contrast with the music industry, where piracy put pressure on recording companies to make their product available in a digital format for legitimate spending, the book publishing industry does not face that pressure. Piracy is not a significant issue, and publishers are not losing sales to pirated copies. Consequently, there is less of an incentive to digitize books. We do not expect electronic books to become a major component of the consumer book market during the next five years. The UK will be the leading market, at an estimated $64 million in 2013, 43 percent of total spending. Overall consumer e-book spending will increase to $148 million in 2013 from only $13 million in 2008. Total consumer books Including electronic books, the overall consumer book market will total $32.8 billion in 2013, a 0.5 percent compound annual decrease from $33.7 billion in 2008.
520
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
521
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
522
Educational books
Print books The print educational book market is affected by tax receipts, which makes it more cyclical than the consumer book market. Declining economies throughout the region will lead to falling tax receipts throughout the region, which will put pressure on governments to cut back on spending. While governments will try to shield education from the steepest cuts, we expect school funding to be affected. Spending on new textbooks can be postponed or delayed with less disruption than laying off teachers causes. Accordingly, we look for spending on textbooks to decline during the next three years. The market also will be hurt by adverse demographic trends. In most countries, the 6- to 17-year-old population will decline during the next five years. This means that when new books are purchased, fewer copies will be needed, which will cut into spending growth once economic conditions improve.
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, US Census Bureau International Database, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
523
Decreases will be mitigated somewhat by the college textbook market. In a weak employment environment, people often go back to schoolor attend for the first timeto improve their job prospects when hiring resumes. Higher enrollment will support spending on college textbooks. On balance, we expect print educational books to fall by a cumulative 7.5 percent during the next three years. We then look for a recovery when economic conditions improve and project a 2.6 percent increase from 2011 to 2013. For the five-year forecast period as a whole, print educational books will decline at a 1 percent compound annual rate to $15.8 billion in 2013 from $16.6 billion in 2008. Germany is the largest market in EMEA, at $3.1 billion in 2008. The market is substantially smaller than in 2006 because of a recategorization of certain components from educational to professional, which resulted in a 23.5 percent drop in reported sales in 2007. The underlying market has been declining since 2005 and fell by 1.2 percent in 2008. We expect steeper decreases during the next two years, reflecting the weakening economy. For Western Europe as a whole, the print educational book market will decline from $14.2 billion in 2008 to $13.7 billion in 2013. Economies in Central and Eastern Europe are falling at a fast rate, and college textbooks constitute a smaller component of the total, resulting in a smaller offset to the falling elementary and secondary school textbook market. The market in Russia is plunging, and we expect a 30.2 percent decrease in 2009 and a 25 percent decrease during the next three years for Central and Eastern Europe as a whole. Through 2013,
spending will fall at a 4.8 percent compound annual rate to $1.4 billion from $1.8 billion in 2008. Middle East/Africa will decline at a 0.6 percent compound annual rate during the next five years to $575 million in 2013 from $593 million in 2008. Electronic books We expect a larger educational electronic book market, which is centered on the college market, than a consumer electronic market. Electronic educational books are more than digital versions of print books and include interactive learning tools that provide enhanced value. College students are accustomed to accessing information electronically, and electronic books enable them to avoid the need to carry around heavy textbooks. The introduction of portable devices will stimulate this market because college students will not be limited to accessing books online. For publishers, electronic books are much less expensive to manufacture and distribute than print books and they do not have to deal with returns or competition from used books. We expect spending on educational electronic books to total $343 million in 2013, with the UK and the Netherlands being the largest markets, at $143 million and $42 million, respectively, together accounting for 54 percent of total spending. Total educational books Growth in electronic books will not offset the decline in print. Total spending on educational books will decrease to $16.1 billion in 2013 from $16.6 billion in 2008, a 0.6 percent compound annual decline.
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At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Association of Book Publishing and Periodic Publications, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Spanish Ministry of Culture, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
525
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
526
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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Asia Pacific
Total print sales will expand at a 1.6 percent compound annual rate to $29.4 billion in 2013 from $27.1 billion in 2008. Sales of electronic consumer books will total $908 million in 2013 from $490 million in 2008, a compound annual growth rate of 13.1 percent. Electronic educational books will rise to $598 million in 2013 from only $28 million in 2008. Total electronic book sales will increase at a 23.8 percent compound annual rate to $1.5 billion in 2013 from $518 million in 2008. The consumer book market as a whole, including both print and electronic books, will increase to $17.7 billion in 2013, a 2.3 percent compound annual gain. The overall educational book market also will expand at a 2.3 percent rate compounded annually to $13.2 billion.
Overview
We project spending on consumer and educational books will grow at a compound annual rate of 2.3 percent, increasing from $27.6 billion in 2008 to $30.9 billion in 2013. Consumer print books will increase from $15.3 billion in 2008 to $16.8 billion in 2013, averaging 1.8 percent growth compounded annually. Educational print books will rise at a 1.4 percent compound annual rate, increasing from $11.8 billion in 2008 to $12.6 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
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The PRC and Japan are the dominant countries in the region at $10.2 billion and $9.1 billion, respectively. Together they constituted 70 percent of total spending in Asia Pacific in 2008. The PRC rose by 5.2 percent in 2008, down from the 16.2 percent jump in 2007 but more in line with increases during prior years. Continued, albeit slower, economic expansion and a growing educational electronic book market will sustain continued increases in spending in the PRC. We project a 4.1 percent compound annual increase to $12.5 billion in 2013. Japan rose by 4.4 percent in 2008, helped by the final Harry Potter installment, which boosted consumer spending. A falling economy will reduce print consumer book spending in the near term. The print educational book market will hold up better because rising college enrollment and continued investment in education will
sustain spending. A growing electronic book market will contribute to a 0.4 percent compound annual increase in overall spending through 2013. India and South Korea were next-largest markets, at $1.9 billion and $1.7 billion, respectively, in 2008. India has a dynamic publishing industry and is the third-largest producer of English-language books in the world, behind the United States and the United Kingdom. India will be the fastest-growing territory during the next five years, with a 5.9 percent compound annual growth. South Korea also has a thriving electronic book market and a strong childrens market that will contribute to a 2.3 percent compound increase during the next five years, third highest, behind India and the PRC.
529
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Consumer books
Print books Two divergent patterns will characterize the market during the next two years: continued expansion in India and the PRC and flat or declining spending in the rest of the region. Although slowing noticeably, the economies of India and the PRC continue to grow and are boosting the consumer book markets in those countries. During the next two years, print consumer books will increase by a combined 11.5 percent in India and the PRC while falling by 4.9 percent in the rest of the region. In addition to economic growth, digitization projects are expanding the markets in India and the PRC. In India, Google is digitizing Hindi-language books, enabling them to be included in keyword search results. In the PRC, the government is supporting the digitization of books as part of the Universal Library project. Chapter
One China allows users to access the first chapters of books, which helps stimulate interest and ultimately sales of print books. During the next five years, growth will average 5.9 percent compounded annually in India and 5 percent in the PRC.
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In the rest of the region, the adverse economy will be the dominant factor. Gains during 201113 will not be sufficient to offset decreases during the next two years, and spending during the entire five-year forecast period will fall at a 0.4 percent compound annual rate. In Japan, a postHarry Potter falloff and a weak economy will lead to a 3.2 percent decline in 2009 and a cumulative 4.9 percent decrease through 2010. Sales of childrens books are holding up despite a decrease in that segment of the population. Childrens stories distributed for free to mobile phones and the Internet are helping stimulate interest in print books. In Australia, the government asked the Productivity Commission in late 2008 to consider revisiting parallel import restrictions. Under current rules, Australian publishers that have exclusive rights to foreign titles are now required to publish those books in Australia within 30 days of their foreign publication. If they do not do so,
the publishers lose their exclusivity, and bookstores and other distributors can obtain the book from any other source. Publishers and authors are interested in retaining the rules because the exclusivity period keeps prices high. A determination is expected in 2009. If the rules are rescinded, booksellers would benefit because they could offer lower prices, which would have a positive effect on sales. Our forecasts do not assume a change in policy. Print spending in South Korea has been bolstered by a strong childrens market that has offset a relatively weak adult market. The economy will lead to near-term decreases and a 0.1 percent compound annual decline through 2013. For Asia Pacific as a whole, gains in India and the PRC will offset declines elsewhere, and overall print consumer book sales will rise to $16.8 billion in 2013 from $15.3 billion in 2008, a 1.8 percent compound annual increase.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
531
Electronic books The electronic consumer book market is concentrated in Japan and South Korea, which together constituted 98 percent of spending in 2008. In Japan, mobile distribution accounts for the majority of electronic book sales. Digital versions of the popular manga comic books are driving the market, as are novels written specifically for mobile phones. The weak economy will lead to a slowdown during the next two years, but we expect stronger growth thereafter. We expect electronic consumer book sales in Japan to increase to $406 million in 2013 from $251 million in 2008, a 10.1 percent compound annual gain. Electronic books accounted for 4.1 percent of total consumer book spending in 2008 and will increase to 6.5 percent by 2013. The electronic book market grew explosively in South Korea through 2008. We expect growth to moderate during the next two years because of the recession and then accelerate. South Korea will overtake Japan in
2012 and rise to $454 million by 2013, up 14.9 percent compounded annually from $227 million in 2008. Growth is being fueled by the availability of electronic books through online bookstores and by mobile phone distribution. Electronic books will account for 32 percent of total consumer book spending in 2013, up from 19 percent in 2008. In Australia, Dymocks launched an electronic book service in 2008 and introduced the iLiad eReader from the Netherlands. Users need to either buy the electronic book at a bookstore or download it over the Internet and then transfer it to the device. Sales of the iLiad have been growing rapidly since its introduction. Cybook and Gen3 are other eReaders that have been introduced in Australia. These new devices use electronic ink that looks like print on paper and is easy to read. We expect overall electronic consumer books to increase from $490 million in 2008 to $908 million in 2013, a 13.1 percent compound annual increase.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
532
Total consumer books The addition of electronic books will increase total consumer book spending growth to 2.3 percent
compounded annually during the next five years from 1.8 percent from print alone. Spending will rise from $15.8 billion in 2008 to $17.7 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Educational books
Print books The print educational book market is generally more cyclical than the consumer book market because much of the spending is generated by the government, whose resources in turn are affected by tax revenues. Falling tax revenues in most countries will squeeze government spending. We expect education to be affected and project a decline in spending on textbooks in most countries. At the college level, by contrast, enrollment tends to rise when economic conditions are weak because people look to invest in improving their employment
prospects in the future by attending college. In Japan, for example, the educational book market is holding up relatively well because of a steady college market. We project only a 0.7 percent dip in 2009, a steady market in 2010, and modest growth thereafter, for a 0.2 percent compound annual increase through 2013. As in the consumer market, we expect India and the PRC to override the recession in the near term. Continued economic growth, although at a slower rate, will propel the education market in those countries. During the next five years, we project India and the PRC to expand at a 2.7 percent compound annual rate. The government of the PRC is actively supporting educational publishers by providing tax rebates and
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encouraging state-owned publishers to access private capital. In 2008, 11 educational publishers went public; spending rose by 5 percent in 2008; and we project gains of 3 percent or more during the next two years. Leading sellers include books that assist in test taking, which taps into the test-oriented nature of the educational system. A 10.3 percent decline in the school-age population during the next five years will cut into spending growth on educational books. We project a 2.5 percent compound annual increase through 2013. In India, an expanding economy and a growing schoolage population will boost spending on educational books. The school-age population will increase by 9.7 million during the next five years, the largest increase in absolute terms in Asia Pacific. We expect India to have the fastest-growing print educational book market during the next five years, with a 5.6 percent compound annual increase. For the rest of the region, a weak near-term economy will lead to declines during the next two years and a declining school-age population; and in some cases, migration to electronic books will cut into spending over the long run. The school-age population in most countries in Asia Pacific will decrease during the next five years. The total number of people in the 6- to 17-year-old agegroup will fall to 693.8 million in 2013 from 709.1 million in 2008, a 2.2 percent decline. In addition to the PRC, we expect double-digit declines in Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan. With fewer students, fewer copies of textbooks will need to be purchased, which will dampen growth even when the economy recovers. We project the overall print market for educational books to expand at a 1.4 percent compound annual rate to $12.6 billion in 2013 from $11.8 billion in 2008.
Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, US Census Bureau International Database, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
534
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Electronic books The electronic educational book market is much less developed than the electronic consumer book market. Spending totaled only $28 million in 2008, with Japan and the PRC together accounting for $20 million. In contrast with electronic consumer books, South Korea does not yet have a significant electronic educational book market. The electronic educational book market will receive a major lift during the next few years in the PRC. The government is undertaking a program to provide digital readers for students so that students will have access to all reading material required for their courses without having to carry around heavy books. Schools will be adopting electronic books. We expect the electronic educational book market in the PRC to increase to $341 million in 2013.
In Japan, we expect the proliferation of portable readers to generate a market for electronic textbooks. Students are comfortable with accessing information online, and most of them connect to the Internet via broadband. College students also are among the buyers of electronic consumer books, and we expect they will be open to accessing textbooks electronically. There is a large potential market in Japan, and we expect that publishers will introduce electronic textbooks to serve that potential market. We project electronic educational books in Japan to increase to $145 million in 2013. The overall electronic educational book market in Asia Pacific will rise to $598 billion by 2013.
535
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
536
Total educational books Total spending on educational books, including electronic books, will reach $13.2 billion in 2013 from $11.8 billion in 2008, a 2.3 percent compound annual
gain. Electronic books will account for 4.5 percent of total educational book spending in 2013 from only 0.2 percent in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
537
Latin America
years and then advance by 6.6 percent to $4.9 billion in 2013, up 0.7 percent compounded annually from $4.8 billion in 2008. Consumer books will grow from $2.18 billion in 2008 to $2.23 billion in 2013, a 0.5 percent compound annual increase. Educational books will expand at an 0.8 percent rate compounded annually, reaching $2.7 billion in 2013 from $2.6 billion in 2008. There is no material electronic book market in Latin America.
Overview
We project that spending on consumer and educational books will decrease by 3 percent during the next two
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Brazil is the dominant market in the region, at $3.3 billion in 2008, 69 percent of the total. Mexico is second largest, at $872 million, with Argentina and Colombia next at $207 million and $206 million, respectively.
Fueled largely by high inflation rates, Argentina will be the fastest-growing country during the next five years, with a 1.9 percent compound annual increase.
538
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Educational books
Educational books are more sensitive to economic conditions than are consumer books because they are funded largely by government, and government spending is affected by tax receipts. With tax receipts expected to fall as the economy declines, we expect cutbacks in government spending in general, with educational spending likely to be affected as well. Because education is viewed as critical to the regions economic growth, we do not expect dramatic declines in either educational spending in general or in textbook spending. We project decreases totaling 3.8 percent during the next two years, which will be steeper than the projected 2 percent decline for consumer books. When the economy rebounds, we look for a larger gain in educational books because rising tax revenues and postponed purchases will fuel demand. We expect an 8.3 percent increase in educational book spending from 2010 to 2013 compared with a projected 4.5 percent increase in consumer books.
The educational book market will also be boosted by an expanding school-age population in most countries, which will require more books. Increases in the number of people in the 6- to 17-yearold age-group are expected in each country except Chile and Mexico during the next five years. Brazil and Argentina will have the largest gains, at 2.6 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively. In Chile, by contrast, the school-age population will fall by 6 percent, and there will be an expected 1.9 percent decrease for Mexico. For Latin America as a whole, the school-age population will increase from 95.8 million in 2008 to 96.5 million in 2013, a 0.7 percent gain.
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Accordingly, we expect the fastest growth in educational book spending in Argentina and Brazil and a decline in Chile. For the five-year forecast period as a whole, the educational book market in Latin America will increase at an 0.8 percent compound annual rate to $2.7 billion in 2013 from $2.6 billion in 2008.
Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, US Census Bureau International Database, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
540
Consumer books
Spending on consumer books rose at a 2.2 percent compound annual rate from 2004 to 2008, buoyed by rising disposable income that freed up resources to spend on leisure products. While pleasure reading is not a major activity in Latin America, consumer books benefited from the improved economic environment.
That economy is now turning around; we look for consumers to reduce their spending during the next two years; and consumer books will be affected. The economic recovery expected by 2011 will then lead to a modest improvement in consumer book spending. For the forecast period as a whole, we project spending to rise at a 0.5 percent compound annual rate, which will translate to a modest, $53,000 increase.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
541
542
Business-to-business publishing
544 Summary 546 North America 557 Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA) 580 Asia Pacific 597 Latin America
Summary
Business-to-business publishing
The business-to-business publishing market consists of spending on business information, print and online directory advertising, print advertising in trade magazines, advertising on trade magazine Web sites, and trade magazine circulation spending. It also includes spending on print and electronic professional books. Business information is an industry increasingly characterized by multinational suppliers selling to multinational buyers. Figures reflect spending by buyers of information in the various countries. We classify business information into financial, marketing, and industry information categories. Financial information involves securities, economic, and credit data. Marketing information is used to sell products or services and to monitor sales and includes survey research, mailing lists, and demographic databases. Industry information consists of data and content, such as market share information and competitive intelligence, focused on specific industry categories such as accounting, energy, health care, law, manufacturing, real estate, technology, and telecommunications.
will decrease to $74.7 billion in 2013 from $88.1 billion in 2008, declining by 3.2 percent compounded annually. EMEA will fall at a 1.8 percent compound annual rate to $53.6 billion in 2013. The Asia Pacific market will decline at a 0.3 percent average rate, decreasing from $21 billion in 2008 to $20.7 billion in 2013. Business-to-business publishing in Latin America will total $3.9 billion in 2013, rising by 0.8 percent compounded annually from $3.8 billion in 2008, the only region where spending will be higher in 2013 than in 2008.
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billion to $8.3 billion, a 0.4 percent annual decline. Total trade magazine spending will decrease at a 1.8 percent compound annual rate, dropping to $25.7 billion in 2013 from $28.1 billion in 2008. The print professional book market will decline at a 0.9 percent annual rate to $20.2 billion in 2013. Electronic books will total $2.1 billion in 2013, growing at a 15.5 percent compound annual rate. The overall professional book market will grow from $22.1 billion to $22.3 billion, a 0.2 percent increase compounded annually. Total business-to-business advertising will decline at a 3.3 percent annual rate to $46 billion from $54.3 billion. Enduser spending on business information, trade magazine circulation, and professional books will fall at a 1.8 percent compound annual rate to $106.9 billion in 2013 from $117.2 billion in 2008.
Principal drivers
Each segment of the market is sensitive to the economy. The recent financial collapse will lead to steep near-term declines in financial information; decreases in consumer spending will lead to cutbacks in advertising, marketing, and marketing information; and falling investment will lower spending on industry information. While those factors will play roles in each region, the impact on business information spending will vary from region to region. Directory advertising will be hurt in the near term by the recession, and over the longer run by migration of advertising from print to the Internet. Even though online rates are much lower than print rates, gains in online advertising will generally not be large enough to offset losses in print. Trade magazines will be adversely affected by the declining economy and falling employment. Falling employment will also cut into spending on professional books in the near term. A rebounding economy during the latter part of the forecast period will lead to rebounds in each category during 201213.
Data for the global business-to-business publishing market by region and for the global business-to-business publishing market by component can be found within the Executive Summary on pages 53 and 54.
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North America
Print advertising in trade magazines will decline by nearly 20 percent in 2009 and by nearly 27 percent during the next three years. During the entire forecast period, spending will fall at a 4.5 percent compound annual rate from $10.2 billion in 2008 to $8.1 billion in 2013. Advertising on trade magazine Web sites will reach $1.8 billion in 2013, an 8 percent compound annual increase from $1.2 billion in 2008. Total trade magazine advertising will fall from $11.4 billion to $9.8 billion, a 2.9 percent decline on a compound annual basis. Circulation spending will decrease at a 1.5 percent compound annual rate to $1.5 billion. The total trade magazine market will decline at a 2.7 percent compound annual rate from $13 billion to $11.4 billion. Spending on professional print books will total $6.3 billion in 2013 from $6.4 billion in 2008, a 0.4 percent decrease compounded annually. Electronic professional books will expand at a 9 percent compound annual rate to $1.2 billion in 2013 from $779 million in 2008. The overall professional book market will grow to $7.5 billion from $7.2 billion, an 0.8 percent compound annual increase. Total business-to-business advertising will decrease from $27.9 billion to $22.3 billion, a 4.3 percent compound annual decline. Total end-user spending will fall at a 2.8 percent compound annual rate to $52.3 billion in 2013 from $60.2 billion in 2008.
Overview
The business-to-business publishing market will decline by 14.4 percent in 2009 and by a cumulative 22 percent through 2011. A modest rebound during 201213 will leave spending at $74.7 billion in 2013, down 3.2 percent on a compound annual basis from $88.1 billion in 2008. Business information will decline from $51.3 billion in 2008 to $43.3 billion in 2013, falling at a 3.3 percent compound annual rate. Print directory advertising will plunge by 36.5 percent during the next four years and will average an 8.4 percent compound annual decrease through 2013 to $9.7 billion from $15 billion in 2008. Online directory advertising will dip by 3.8 percent in 2009 before rebounding in 2010 and growing to $2.8 billion by 2013, a 14.3 percent increase compounded annually from $1.5 billion in 2008. Online directories will be the fastest-growing business-to-business publishing category during the next five years. Despite growth in online directory advertising, the overall directory advertising market will still decline, falling at a 5.4 percent compound annual rate to $12.5 billion from $16.5 billion in 2008.
546
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
547
The United States and Canada will exhibit comparable patterns during the next five yearsdouble-digit declines in 2009, high-single-digit decreases in 2010 and low-single-digit declines in 2011 followed by lowto mid-single-digit growth during 201213.
The US market will fall from $81 billion in 2008 to $68.5 billion in 2013, a 3.3 percent compound annual decrease. Canada will decline at a 2.6 percent compound annual rate to $6.1 billion in 2013 from $7 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
548
Business information
The collapse of the housing market and the financial markets brought lending activity to a virtual standstill during the latter part of 2008. There also was a sharp falloff in merger and acquisition activity, and securities values plummeted. As a consequence of these developments, the need for financial information dropped off, and spending in 2008 fell by 6.1 percent, most of which was centered in the fourth quarter. We expect a much steeper decline during the next two years. In addition to depressed lending activity, employment in the financial sector is declining, and there will be fewer potential purchasers of financial information. We project spending to fall by 18 percent in 2009 and by an additional 12.1 percent in 2010. By 2011, spending on financial information will have fallen by 31 percent from 2008. When economic conditions improve and financial companies fix their balance sheet problems, lending activity should increase, which will generate increased demand for financial information. We expect spending to rise by 2.3 percent in 2012, and by 6.7 percent in 2013. Those gains will not offset the near-term declines, and spending of $14.3 billion in 2013 will be 5.5 percent lower compounded annually from $19 billion in 2008. Since 2005, consumers had been financing spending through home equity loans and other credit instruments even as savings from disposable income fell. In early 2008, the plunge in housing values dried up the home equity market and reduced consumer wealth. Consumers reacted by cutting back on their spending and increasing their savings. In the US, savings in the fourth quarter reached their highest level since 1992.
The cutback in consumer spending reverberated throughout the economy, making the downturn particularly severe. With consumers spending less, vendors are slashing their advertising and marketing expenditures, in the process reducing their need for marketing information. Spending on marketing information fell 3.9 percent in 2008, and we look for a 15.4 percent decrease in 2009 and a cumulative decline of 23.2 percent through 2011. Once consumers build up their savings to a comfortable level, we expect they will begin spending again, which will help expand the economy. It will also revitalize the advertising and marketing industries and boost spending on marketing information. We expect marketing information to expand by 10.2 percent from 2011 to 2013. During the entire forecast period, marketing information will fall at a 3.3 percent compound annual rate to $14.5 billion in 2013 from $17.1 billion in 2008. With credit difficult to obtain and with consumers cutting back on their spending, there are both little demand for new investment and limited capital available for those companies that do wish to invest. Consequently, overall investment activity will decline, and the need for investors to seek information to evaluate new opportunities will likewise decline. We project spending on industry information to fall during the next two years, stabilize in 2011, and then expand at modest rates during 201213. Spending will drop from $15.2 billion in 2008 to $14.6 billion in 2013, a 0.9 percent compound annual decline.
549
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Overall spending on business information will decrease at a 3.3 percent compound annual rate to $43.3 billion in 2013 from $51.3 billion in 2008.
The US market will decline at a 3.4 percent compound annual rate, falling to $38.9 billion in 2013 from $46.3 billion in 2008. In Canada, spending will decrease from $5.1 billion in 2008 to $4.4 billion in 2013, a 2.7 percent decline compounded annually.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Directory advertising
Print The directory advertising market is being affected over the long run by a spending shift from print to the Internet and in the short run by the falling economy. The falling economy is leading to cutbacks in all forms of advertising, including directory advertising. Directory advertising is particularly vulnerable because small businesses make up a relatively large component of
the market compared with television or newspapers. Although the current economic decline is hurting virtually all businesses, small businesses typically fare worse than larger companies, and many often go out of business. We expect the combination of an overall cutback in advertising and major reductions on the part of small businesses to lead to a 20.2 percent drop in print directory advertising in 2009. We expect a 12.7 percent decline in 2010, with decreases continuing through 2012.
550
A stronger economy will lead to a modest increase of 1.3 percent in 2013, helped by new business formation that also is typical on the upside of the economic cycle. Nevertheless, that gain will be muted by the ongoing shift of spending to online directories. For the forecast period as a whole, we project print directory advertising to fall from $15 billion in 2008 to $9.7 billion in 2013, an 8.4 percent compound annual
decrease. We expect print directory advertising to be the weakest component of the business-to-business publishing market during the next five years. The US market will fall at an 8.7 percent compound annual rate to $8.8 billion from $13.8 billion in 2008. Canada will decline from $1.2 billion to $877 million, falling by 6.1 percent on a compound annual basis.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Online directories Online directories can be updated continuously, and the content of ads can be changed. The flexibility of Internet directories gives them an advantage over print. For those reasons, we expect online directories to continue to gain share during the next five years. The Internet is not immune to the economy, and we expect online directory advertising to be adversely affected in 2009. We project a 4.6 percent decline in 2009 in the United States. In Canada, which is a year or two behind the US, digital directory advertising growth will slow to 12.5 percent from a 46.9 percent increase in 2008. We expect that online share gains will override the weak economy in the United States by 2010 and look
for online directory advertising to rebound with a 9.1 percent increase, followed by accelerating growth through 2013. Online directory advertising in the US will rise to $2.6 billion in 2013 from $1.4 billion in 2008, a 13.8 percent compound annual increase. In Canada, we expect a pickup in growth in 2010 to 19.8 percent followed by gains in excess of 30 percent during 201112 and a 15.2 percent increase in 2013. Online directory advertising will increase from $72 million in 2008 to $197 million in 2013, a 22.3 percent compound annual gain. Overall online directory advertising in North America will grow at a 14.3 percent compound annual rate to $2.8 billion in 2013 from $1.5 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
551
In Canada, total directory advertising will fall from $1.3 billion in 2008 to $1.1 billion in 2013, a 3.3 percent decrease compounded annually. Overall directory advertising will total $12.5 billion in 2013, down 5.4 percent on a compound annual basis from $16.5 billion in 2008. Online directories will constitute 22.7 percent of total directory advertising in 2013 compared with 8.8 percent in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Trade magazines
Print advertising Trade magazine print advertising historically has been one of the more cyclical media and has generally been driven by trends in corporate profits. Trade magazines also are experiencing migration of advertising to the Internet, which has cut into print growth during the past few years. Print advertising in trade magazines fell by 7.3 percent in 2008, the second consecutive annual decline. Corporate profits are now falling sharply, and companies are cutting back on their ad spending. Employment is falling, which is reducing the potential audience for trade magazine advertising, and magazines are closing, which will reduce the number of outlets for advertisers. Ziff-Davis, for example, is ending its print publication of PC Magazine and making the title available only online. In Canada, Masthead, the trade publication covering the magazine industry, is closing as well.
With the economic climate worsening, we expect print advertising in trade magazines to fall by 19.7 percent in 2009 and by a cumulative 26.8 percent through 2011. From 2006 to 2011, print advertising in trade magazines will have dropped by a third. We expect the market to stabilize in 2012 as economic conditions begin to trend upward and then grow by 7.4 percent in 2013 as corporate profits again rise and as companies look to expand. Trade magazines are one of the vehicles companies use to boost sales in an expanding economy. Print advertising in trade magazines will total an estimated $8.1 billion in 2013, still a 4.5 percent compound annual decline from the $10.2 billion in 2008. The US market will fall at a 4.5 percent compound annual rate to $7.9 billion in 2013 from $10 billion in 2008. Canada will decline from $211 million in 2008 to $159 million in 2013, a 5.5 percent compound annual decrease.
552
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: American Business Media, Leading National Advertisers, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Digital advertising Trade magazines, particularly publications serving the computer and technical industries, generally attract proportionally more digital advertising than consumer magazines do. In 2008, digital advertising in North America accounted for 10.6 percent of total trade magazine advertising compared with 6.4 percent for consumer magazines. The economic downturn and the associated cutback in advertising will also affect the digital market in 2009. Despite continued share gains, we expect digital advertising on trade magazine Web sites to fall in 2009 by 6.2 percent in the United States and to remain flat in Canada.
Thereafter, we expect digital advertising to expand in the US in 2010 and to return to double-digit growth during 201113. In Canada, which has a very small digital advertising market, double-digit annual gains are expected during 201013. Digital advertising will total an estimated $1.8 billion in 2013, up 8 percent compounded annually from $1.2 billion in 2008. The US market will grow at a 7.8 percent compound annual rate, and Canada will advance by 22.6 percent compounded annually to $36 million from only $13 million in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
553
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Total trade magazine advertising Growth in digital will not offset the decline in print. Total trade magazine advertising will fall at a 2.9 percent compound annual rate to $9.8 billion from $11.4 billion. By 2013, digital advertising will account for 18 percent of total trade magazine advertising. Circulation Most trade magazines are distributed on a controlled basis to targeted readers who do not pay for the magazine. Consequently, circulation spending accounts for a much smaller component of revenues for trade magazines than it does for consumer titles. At $1.7 billion in 2008, circulation spending represented 13 percent of trade magazine revenues in North America. By contrast, circulation spending generated 42 percent of the total for consumer magazines.
Circulation spending fell by 4.7 percent in 2008. We expect decreases in employment to further reduce circulation spending during the next two years by a cumulative 9.3 percent. As economic conditions improve and as employment rebounds, paid circulation will post modest increases during 201113. Paid circulation in 2013 will total an estimated $1.5 billion, a 1.5 percent compound annual decrease from 2008. Overall trade magazine market The overall trade magazine market will decline at a 2.7 percent compound annual rate from $13 billion in 2008 to $11.4 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
554
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Professional books
Print The professional book market serves the scientific, technical, and medical industries, as well as the legal and business (financial services) industries. The print professional book market declined by 0.5 percent in 2008 following gains averaging 2.6 percent compounded annually during the prior two years. Print sales have been helped by the emergence of online browsing services. Professionals looking for information online were able to search professional books for the first time. Many were made aware of information in those books, and purchases were generated through links to Web sites and online retailers.
The professional book market also is affected by the economy. The recession affects professionals, particularly those in the business and financial markets. Falling employment will lead to cutbacks in professional book purchases. We project spending to fall by 4.4 percent in 2009 and an additional 1.8 percent in 2010. An improved economy will have a positive impact on the professional book market during the latter part of the forecast period. We project spending on print professional books to rebound during the 201113 period with a 1.4 percent compound annual increase. Nevertheless, spending will be lower in 2013 than in 2008, falling from $6.4 billion to $6.3 billion.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
555
Electronic books Professional books are generally used for reference purposes, which makes them suitable for electronic formats. Publishers have invested in electronic products and created tools to enable users to customize material. During the past few years, professionals have migrated from print versions to electronic formats. Spending on electronic professional books totaled $779 million in 2008, representing 11 percent of total professional book spending. In the near term, the drop in employment will cut into electronic growth even as electronic books continue to gain share. We expect low- to mid-single-digit increases during the next two years.
Once economic conditions improve, the entrance of young professionals accustomed to accessing material electronically should contribute to growth in electronic books. We project a return to double-digit growth during 201213. For the forecast period as a whole, spending on electronic professional books will increase to $1.2 billion in 2013, a 9 percent compound annual increase from 2008. The US market will expand at an 8.8 percent compound annual rate, and the Canadian market will grow by an estimated 11.8 percent compounded annually from a much smaller base.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Total professional books Gains in the electronic book market will offset decreases in print, and total spending will be higher in 2013 than in 2008, the only business-to-business publishing category projected to expand during the next five years.
The total professional book market, including print and electronic books, will grow at an 0.8 percent compound annual rate to $7.5 billion in 2013 from $7.2 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Universal McCann, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
556
Print advertising in trade magazines will decline at a 3.6 percent compound annual rate to $4.9 billion from $5.9 billion. Advertising on trade magazine Web sites will reach $928 million in 2013, up 17.1 percent compounded annually from $421 million in 2008. Gains in digital advertising will not offset declines in print, and total trade magazine advertising will fall from $6.3 billion to $5.9 billion, a 1.6 percent compound annual decrease. Circulation spending will be flat, at $5.2 billion, falling during the next two years and recovering during 201113. The total trade magazine market will fall at a 0.9 percent compound annual rate from $11.6 billion to $11.1 billion. Spending on professional print books will total $9.1 billion in 2013 from $9.7 billion in 2008, a 1.2 percent decrease compounded annually. Electronic professional books will expand from $88 million to $346 million, a 31.5 percent compound annual rate from a small base. The overall professional book market at $9.5 billion in 2013 will be 0.7 percent lower on a compound annual basis from $9.8 billion in 2008. Total business-to-business advertising will decrease from $18 billion to $15.6 billion, a 2.7 percent compound annual decline. Total end-user spending on business information, trade magazine circulation, and professional books will fall at a 1.4 percent compound annual rate to $38 billion in 2013 from $40.7 billion in 2008.
Overview
The business-to-business publishing market in EMEA will decrease by a cumulative 15 percent during the next three years followed by low- to mid-single-digit growth during 201213. The rebound will not be large enough to offset the near-term decline, and spending in 2013 will be 1.8 percent lower on a compound annual basis from 2008, falling from $58.7 billion to $53.6 billion. Business information will total $23.3 billion in 2013, a 2 percent compound annual decline from $25.7 billion in 2008. Print directory advertising will fall at a 6.7 percent compound annual rate from $10.4 billion in 2008 to $7.4 billion in 2013. Online directory advertising will increase at a 14.8 percent compound annual rate to $2.4 billion in 2013 from $1.2 billion in 2008. Total directory advertising will still decline during the next five years, but at a more moderate, 3.4 percent compound annual rate to $9.8 billion in 2013 from $11.6 billion in 2008.
557
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
558
The business-to-business publishing market in Western Europe will decline by 15.3 percent during the next three years and then grow by 7.1 percent cumulatively during 201213 to $47.5 billion, which will be 1.9 percent lower on a compound annual basis from $52.4 billion in 2008. Central and Eastern Europe will follow a similar pattern, falling from $4.8 billion in 2008 to $4 billion in 2011 and then rising to $4.4 billion in 2013, down 1.4 percent compounded annually from 2008. Middle East/Africa will decline by 6.8 percent during the next two years and then grow by 12.9 percent during the subsequent three years, rising to $1.6 billion in 2013 from $1.5 billion in 2008, a 1 percent compound annual increase.
Germany and the United Kingdom had the largest markets in 2008, at $16.6 billion and $12.9 billion, respectively, together accounting for 50.3 percent of total spending in EMEA. Germany will decline at a 1.4 percent compound annual rate to $15.5 billion in 2013. The UK economy is particularly weak, and we project a 20.9 percent cumulative decline during the next three years and a 3.4 percent compound annual decrease through 2013 to $10.8 billion. France is the third-largest country, at $7.9 billion. We project a 1.7 percent compound annual decrease to $7.3 billion in 2013. Italy was fourth largest, at $3.4 billion, and the Netherlands, Spain, and Russia had markets above $2 billion. Poland was the only other country to reach $1 billion in business-to-business publishing in 2008.
559
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
560
Business information
The business information market in EMEA declined by 2.3 percent in 2008. Financial information, the largest component of the market, fell by 4.4 percent, and marketing information decreased by 2.3 percent, offsetting a modest 0.7 percent rise in industry information. The collapse of the mortgage market and the decline in real estate values and sales volumes decreased the ability of financial institutions to provide credit, which in turn decreased demand for credit information. The securities market fell sharply during the latter part of 2008, further dampening demand for financial information. Staff cutbacks at banks and brokerage institutions are reducing the number of people in the market for financial information. Companies faced with declining sales are not looking to expand, and their demand for investment funds is falling as well. Likewise, consumers are looking to shore up their savings and not take on new debt. The combination of reduced demand for credit, reduced supply of credit, and falling securities markets is reducing spending on financial information. The decline in the market is leading information providers to consolidate. Most notably, Reuters in the fall of 2008 was acquired by Canadian-based Thomson Company to form Thomson Reuters. Worsening market conditions will lead to more precipitous declines during the next two years. We project spending on financial information to fall by 16.2 percent in 2009 and by a further 9.8 percent in 2010 followed by a 4.6 percent drop in 2011, for a cumulative decrease of nearly 28 percent during the next three years. We expect an economic recovery to lead to a rebound in demand for financial information as investment activity resumes and companies again look to expand. We project the financial information market to stabilize in 2012 with a 1.7 percent advance and to grow by 7.3
percent in 2013 as economic activity picks up. During the entire five-year forecast period, spending on financial information will fall at a 4.7 percent compound annual rate to $9.3 billion in 2013 from $11.8 billion in 2008. As consumers cut back on their spending, companies are cutting back on their marketing and advertising and are spending less on marketing information. We project a 7 percent decrease in 2009 and a cumulative 15 percent decline through 2011. We anticipate a rebound in advertising during the latter part of the forecast period, which will be accompanied by a rebound in spending on marketing information. We project a 9.4 percent cumulative increase from 2011 to 2013. Marketing information will total an estimated $4.8 billion in 2013, down 1.5 percent compounded annually from $5.1 billion in 2008. Although virtually all segments of the economy have been adversely affected by the economic downturn, the nonfinancial and nonmarketing sectors have been less volatile. Consequently, demand for industry information has held up relatively well. Nevertheless, international trade volumes are decreasing, and interest in foreign investment is waning, although India and the Peoples Republic of China are still compelling markets. The relaxation of foreign ownership restrictions in those countries is making them more inviting. Companies are purchasing industry information to help them evaluate the status and prospects of industries in those areas. On balance, we project relatively modest decreases in spending on industry information during the next two years. Industry information will be the only business information category that will be larger in 2013 than in 2008, growing by 1 percent compounded annually from $8.8 billion to $9.2 billion. The business information market as a whole will decline from $25.7 billion in 2008 to $23.3 billion in 2013, falling at a 2 percent compound annual rate.
561
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Western Europe fell by 2.8 percent in 2008 compared with increases of 0.6 percent in Central and Eastern Europe and 3.2 percent in Middle East/Africa. We expect Western Europe to continue to experience the steepest declines during the next three years, with a projected 16.6 percent cumulative decrease followed by a relatively modest, 7.2 percent recovery from 2011 to 2013. Spending on business information in Western Europe will average a 2.2 percent compound annual decline, falling to $20 billion in 2013 from $22.4 billion in 2008. Economies in Central and Eastern Europe also are declining, and the trends in Western Europe are being reflected there as well. We project a 14.1 percent
decline during the next three years, a 10.7 percent increase during the subsequent two years, and an overall 1 percent compound annual decrease from $2.6 billion to $2.4 billion. Economies in Middle East/Africa are not suffering as much as in the rest of EMEA, although decreases are expected there as well. Slower economic activity will lead to declines in spending on business information. We project a cumulative 7.5 percent drop during the next two years and a 15.1 percent increase during the subsequent three years, for an overall advance of 1.3 percent on a compound annual basis. Spending will rise from $765 million in 2008 to $815 million in 2013.
562
At 2007 average exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
563
Directory advertising
Print Print directory advertising is being hurt in the long run by a shift to the Internet and in the near term by the declining economy. Small companies that do not have the funds to advertise in the main media often have a presence in directories. A number of small companies have gone out of business, and others are facing revenue declines. Many small companies are eliminating their print directory advertising in the current environment. Even large companies are going out of business or consolidating in order to survive. Surviving companies are cutting back on their advertising expenditures and are reducing their spending in print directories. Print directory advertising fell by 3.3 percent in Western Europe in 2008, primarily because of a shift from print directories to online directories, and only in part because of the economy. The impact of the economy will begin to be felt in 2009. We project a 17.2 percent decrease followed by a 12.4 percent decline in 2010. We look for a further 6.7 percent drop during the subsequent two years. The impact of the economic expansion will begin to be felt in 2013, although the continued shift from print to the Internet will hold down growth to a projected 1.9 percent. From 2008 to 2012, print directory advertising in Western Europe will fall by 32 percent. Directory advertising will total $6.2 billion in 2013, a 7.2 percent compound annual decline from $8.9 billion in 2008. There is less migration from print to the Internet in Central and Eastern Europe and in Middle East/Africa because Internet and broadband penetration in those areas is lower than in Western Europe. Nevertheless, the weak economy in Central and Eastern Europe will lead to double-digit decreases in print directory advertising during the next two years and a cumulative 25.2 percent decline through 2012. For the entire five-year forecast period, print directory advertising in Central and Eastern Europe will fall at a 5.2 percent compound annual rate to $848 million in 2013 from $1.1 billion in 2008. We also expect declines in Middle East/Africa, although decreases will be less severe because the economic climate is relatively healthier. We project a cumulative
12.2 percent decrease during the next three years and an 0.8 percent compound annual decrease through 2013 to $347 million from $361 million in 2008. For EMEA as a whole, print directory advertising will decline by 30.8 percent cumulatively through 2012 and at a 6.7 percent compound annual rate through 2013. Spending will fall from $10.4 billion in 2008 to $7.4 billion in 2013. Online directories Online directory advertising jumped by 48.1 percent in 2008 to $1.2 billion, which offset the decline in print. Nevertheless, we expect the adverse economy to affect online spending as well as print in 2009 and project a 3 percent decline in online directory advertising. We look for migration from print to online to continue throughout the forecast period. Online directories are attractive because of their lower costs and convenience. Online directories can easily be updated, which provides flexibility not available in print. With a less severe economy in 2010, we expect a 9.1 percent increase in online directory advertising. By 201113, with economic conditions improving, we look for gains in online directory advertising in excess of 20 percent annually. Online directory advertising will total $2.4 billion in 2013, a 14.8 percent compound annual increase from $1.2 billion in 2008. Total directory advertising Including digital, total directory advertising rose by 1 percent in 2008 to $11.6 billion. Although digital advertising gains will not offset print declines, we expect the overall decrease will be substantially more modest. We expect total directory advertising to fall at a 3.4 percent compound annual rate, around half the decline projected for print alone. Spending in 2013 will total an estimated $9.8 billion, of which digital will account for 24.9 percent. In 2008, digital advertising accounted for 10.5 percent of total directory advertising.
564
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Association of Communication Agencies of Russia, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
565
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
566
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Association of Communication Agencies of Russia, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
567
Trade magazines
Print advertising Trade magazines are among the more cyclical advertising media, as they react relatively quickly to changes in corporate profits. Profits were falling sharply during the latter half of 2008, particularly in Western Europe, and those declines were reflected by a 6 percent drop in print advertising in trade magazines in 2008. By contrast, Central and Eastern Europe rose by 3.9 percent in 2008, and there was a 0.9 percent increase in Middle East/Africa. The UK and Germany are the dominant markets in EMEA, at $1.6 billion and $1.4 billion, respectively, in 2008, together accounting for half of the regions total spending. The UK has been weak for a number of years, with print advertising falling by 18 percent since 2004, including an 8 percent decline in 2008. With the UK economy now falling at an accelerating rate, we look for steeper declines during the next two years. We project spending to fall by 20 percent in 2009, by an additional 10 percent in 2010, and by a cumulative 31 percent through 2011. Compared with 2004, print advertising in trade magazines will be 44 percent lower in 2011. Improved economic conditions during the latter part of the forecast period should lead to a rebound in corporate profits and an increase in trade magazine advertising. We project a 5 percent increase from 2011 to 2013. Trade magazine print advertising in 2013 will be an estimated $1.2 billion, down 6.4 percent compounded annually from 2008, the steepest projected five-year decline in EMEA. In Germany, by contrast, trade magazine advertising benefited from acceleration in economic growth from 2004 to 2007, leading to increases in excess of 6 percent annually during 200607. In 2008, the declining economy led to an 8.9 percent decline. We expect a 16.2 percent drop in 2009 and a cumulative 23.3 percent decline through 2011. We then look for a relatively healthy rebound, including a 5.5 percent gain
in 2013, nearly matching the gains during the recent past. By 2013, trade magazine advertising in Germany will total an estimated $1.1 billion, a 3.9 percent decrease from 2008. Although the near-term trend in print trade magazine advertising and print directory advertising will be comparable for EMEA as a wholea 16.6 percent decrease for trade magazines and a 16.4 percent decline for print directorieswe believe trade magazines have a stronger upside potential once economic conditions improve, because for reaching professionals, they remain important vehicles that are difficult to duplicate in other media. Directories, by contrast, are used primarily as reference resources, and the search capabilities of the Internet make them particularly suitable to that environment. Consequently, we expect more-modest decreases in trade magazine advertising than in directories during 201011 and a stronger performance during 201213. For the five-year forecast period, trade magazine print advertising will average a 3.6 percent compound annual decline, which will be much less than the projected 6.7 percent annual decrease in print directories. Trade magazine advertising will total $4.9 billion in 2013 from $5.9 billion in 2008. We expect Western Europe to experience the steepest decline in EMEA3.9 percent compounded annually because there will be a larger shift from print to the Internet because the Internet is more commonly used as an advertising medium compared with Central and Eastern Europe and Middle East/Africa. In Central and Eastern Europe, we project a cumulative 17.1 percent decline during the next two years and a 0.6 percent compound annual decrease through 2013 to $233 million from $240 million in 2008. We project trade magazine print advertising in Middle East/Africa to fall by 7 percent during the next two years and to increase by 20 percent during the subsequent three years, rising to $121 million from $109 million in 2008, a 2.1 percent compound annual increase.
568
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: Advertising Association, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates, ZAW
569
Digital advertising Trade magazine Web sites are beginning to attract advertising, generating $421 million in 2008, a 40.8 percent increase from 2007. Web site advertising also will be affected by the economy. We expect a 4.5 percent decline in 2009, which will be much less than the 16.6 percent decrease we are projecting for print, as digital continues to gain share. We expect a return to double-digit growth in 2010, with gains in excess of 20 percent annually during 201113. Web site advertising will rise to $928 million in 2013, a 17.1 percent compound annual increase. Virtually all of the spending will be in Western Europe, which accounted for 99 percent of the total in 2008 and will constitute 98.3 percent in 2013.
Total advertising Gains in digital advertising will not be large enough to offset declines in print advertising. Total advertising in trade magazines will decline by 20 percent during the next two years and at a 1.6 percent compound annual rate through 2013. Spending will fall to $5.9 billion from $6.3 billion in 2008. Digital advertising will account for 15.9 percent of total trade magazine advertising in 2013, up from 6.6 percent in 2008.
570
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
571
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
572
Circulation Trade magazines are often distributed for free on a controlled basis to targeted readers that advertisers want to reach. Job losses during the latter part of 2008 led to a slowdown in circulation spending growth to 0.2 percent from gains averaging 1.5 percent during the prior three years. With employment expected to fall at faster rates during the next two years, the potential audience for trade magazines will decline. We project a 2.2 percent decrease in circulation spending in 2009 and an 0.8 percent drop in 2010. Improved economic conditions should lead to rising employment and increased circulation spending. We expect increases during 201113 to offset decreases
during 200910. Circulation spending will fall from $5.2 billion in 2008 to $5.1 billion in 2010 and then return to $5.2 billion by 2013. We expect Western Europe to be flat, while Central and Eastern Europe will fall at a 0.2 percent compound annual rate and Middle East/Africa will decrease by 1.1 percent compounded annually. Circulation spending in Central and Eastern Europe and Middle East/Africa is very small, and the projected decreases reflect declines of only $1 million in Central and Eastern Europe and only $2 million in Middle East/Africa. In Western Europe, spending will rise by $5 million from 2008 to 2013. Total trade magazine spending Overall spending on trade magazines will decrease from $11.6 billion in 2008 to $11.1 billion in 2013, a 0.9 percent compound annual decline.
573
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: FachPresse-Statistik, German Association of Magazine Publishers, Periodical Publishers Association, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
574
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
575
Professional books
Print The print professional book market also is cyclically sensitive, and the onset of the recession led to a 1.4 percent decrease in spending in 2008, a turnaround from the 13.9 percent increase in 2007. The 2007 growth was due largely to a 34 percent increase in Germany, the largest market in EMEA. That gain was the result of a recategorization of some types of books from the educational category to the professional categorya change that inflated the professional books total while deflating the educational total. Excluding Germany, professional book spending rose 1.3 percent in 2007. With employment among professionals falling, we expect spending on print professional books to decline by 4.1 percent in 2009 and by an additional 2.8 percent during 201011. We then expect a modest increase during 201213 as economic conditions improve and employment rises. For the entire forecast period, we project spending on print professional books to fall at a 1.2 percent compound annual rate to $9.1 billion in 2013 from $9.7 billion in 2008. In most countries in Western Europe, print books do not face competition from electronic versions. However, in countries in Western Europe and in other areas of EMEA where an electronic book market has emerged, electronic books will cut into the print market. We project spending in Western Europe to fall at a 1.3 percent annual rate from $8.8 billion in 2008 to $8.2 billion in 2013. We expect smaller decreases of 0.7 percent compounded annually in Central and Eastern Europe and 0.6 percent compounded annually in Middle East/Africa because there will be less migration from print to electronic books in those areas.
Electronic books Print professional books are subject to competition from electronic books because they are used principally for reference purposes, which makes them suitable for electronic formats. Users can search electronic books for the specific information they need. In markets where there are strict retail price maintenance programs that severely limit the latitude for price discounting, an electronic book market has not developed. Electronic books generally depend on discounting in order to make inroads on print sales. The search characteristics of professional books could make electronic books viable even without discounting. Unless or until a viable electronic book market develops in countries with strong retail price maintenance programs, we are not assuming electronic books will have a presence. In other territories, we expect electronic books to make inroads in the print market. We expect electronic books to grow to $346 million in 2013 from only $88 million in 2008, a 31.5 percent compound annual increase. Total professional books Gains in electronic books will not offset decreases in print. Total spending on professional books, both print and electronic, will decrease from $9.8 billion in 2008 to $9.5 billion in 2013, a 0.7 percent compound annual decline. Electronic books will constitute 3.7 percent of total spending in 2013 compared with only 0.9 percent in 2008.
576
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
577
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
578
At average 2008 exchange rates. Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
579
Asia Pacific
Print advertising in trade magazines will fall by 23.8 percent during the next three years and at a 3.6 percent compound annual rate through 2013 to $1.3 billion from $1.6 billion in 2008. Advertising on trade magazine Web sites will reach $136 million in 2013, a 17 percent compound annual increase from $62 million in 2008. Growth in digital advertising will not be large enough to offset the decline in print, and total trade magazine advertising will fall from $1.6 billion in 2008 to $1.4 billion in 2013, a 2.5 percent compound annual decrease. Circulation spending will decline at a 1 percent annual rate to $1.3 billion in 2013 from $1.36 billion in 2008. The total trade magazine market will contract at a 1.8 percent compound annual rate from $3 billion to $2.7 billion. Spending on professional print books will edge down at a 1 percent annual rate to $4 billion in 2013 from $4.3 billion in 2008. Electronic professional books will expand from $161 million to $569 million, a 28.7 percent compound annual rate from a small base. The overall professional book market will grow to $4.6 billion from $4.4 billion, a 0.9 percent compound annual increase. Total business-to-business advertising will decrease from $7.3 billion to $6.8 billion, a 1.3 percent compound annual decline. Total end-user spending on business information, trade magazine circulation, and professional books will rise at a 0.2 percent compound annual rate to $13.9 billion in 2013 from $13.7 billion in 2008.
Overview
The business-to-business publishing market in Asia Pacific will decrease by 10.5 percent during the next two years and then grow by 10 percent during the subsequent three years. The $20.7-billion total projected for 2013 will be 0.3 percent lower on a compound annual basis from $21 billion in 2008. Business information will fall from $7.95 billion in 2008 to $7.22 billion in 2010 and then rise to $7.98 billion by 2013, a 0.1 percent compound annual increase from 2008. Print directory advertising will decline during the next three years and will remain 2.2 percent lower on a compound annual basis in 2013 than in 2008, falling from $5.5 billion to $4.9 billion. Online directories will drive a portion of that decline, rising at an 18 percent compound annual rate to $507 million in 2013 from $222 million in 2008. Total directory advertising will fall at a 1 percent compound annual rate from $5.7 billion in 2008 to $5.4 billion in 2013.
580
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
581
Japan is the largest market in the region, at $9.1 billion in 2008, 43 percent of total business-to-business publishing spending in Asia Pacific. The plunging economy in Japan will lead to a 13.6 percent decrease in 2009 and a cumulative 24 percent decline through 2012. The market in 2013 will total an estimated $7.2 billion, down 4.8 percent compounded annually from 2008. The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) is the secondlargest market, at $5.3 billion in 2008. The economy is slowing in the PRC from its torrid pace from 2004 to 2007. We expect the business-to-business publishing market to grow more slowly as well during the next two years and then improve to high-single-digit gains during 201213. For the entire forecast period, we project business-to-business publishing to average 5.6 percent growth compounded annually.
South Korea has the third-largest market, at $2.7 billion. We expect decreases during the next three years and a modest expansion during 201213 that will not offset the near-term declines. Spending will fall at a 1.4 percent compound annual rate to $2.5 billion in 2013. Australia is the fourth-largest market, at $2 billion. We expect declines totaling 8.1 percent during the next two years, with spending returning to its 2008 level by 2013. No other country reached $1 billion in 2008. The next largest was India, at $533 million. As in the PRC, the economy in India is slowing following strong growth during the prior four years. Business-to-business publishing rose at double-digit annual rates since 2004. We expect a drop to low-single-digit increases during the next two years followed by accelerating gains during the subsequent three years and a return to double-digit growth in 2013, averaging 6.6 percent compounded annually during the entire forecast period.
582
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Business information
The business information market slowed to a 2.4 percent increase in 2008 from gains averaging 6.6 percent compounded annually from 2004 to 2007. With credit markets tightening and investment slowing during the latter part of 2008, demand for financial information dropped. Growth averaged only 0.3 percent for the year as a whole. With economies slowing in the PRC and India and falling in South Korea, Australia, and particularly in Japan, financial institutions are facing capital shortages and do not have the resources to provide funding. The demand for credit is also falling because companies are not looking to expand in the face of declining consumer spending. Securities markets also are down significantly, further impeding investment activity. Consequently, the need for credit and financial information is declining. We project this component of the business information market to fall by 8 percent in 2009 and by a cumulative 14.2 percent through 2011.
We expect economic conditions to improve during the latter part of the forecast period, which in turn will lead to a shift in focus toward expansion and an increased demand for funding. Financial institutions should be better positioned to lend funds, helped in some cases by government assistance. An increase in economic activity will lead to an increase in demand for financial information. We expect a 3.2 percent recovery in 2012 and a 7.1 percent increase in 2013, matching the 7.1 percent gain achieved in 2006. We project the financial information market to total $3.7 billion in 2013, a 1.1 percent compound annual decline from $3.9 billion in 2008. The financial squeeze is leading financial information providers to consolidate or to team up. In Australia, for example, D&B Australia acquired Decision Intellect. There also is pressure to permit more foreign investment. In India, the Reserve Bank of India is considering allowing foreign credit bureaus to own up to 49 percent of local credit bureaus. The current limit is 10 percent.
583
In the PRC, rules established in 2006 authorized the Xinhua News Agency as both the exclusive agent and the regulator of foreign data providers. Xinhua News Agency subsequently launched its own data service in competition with foreign providers, leading to protests on the part of foreign providers. In 2008, the rules making the Xinhua News Agency the regulator of foreign data providers were discontinued, which could induce more foreign participation in the PRC financial data market. In November 2008, United Business Media announced its acquisition of Xinhua PR Newswire, the PRCs largest corporate announcement distribution service. The financial crisis also is leading providers to develop new products. In Hong Kong in early 2009, for example, TransUnion launched TrendInsight, a product that is intended to help lenders predict changes in consumer spending and consumer payment patterns. The economic slowdown also is leading to cutbacks or slower growth in consumer spending, which in turn is leading to cutbacks in advertising and marketing. As businesses reduce their advertising and marketing outlays, they are also reducing their spending on marketing information. Marketing information growth slowed to 1.8 percent in 2008 following increases of 6 percent or more during the prior three years. We expect a 5.9 percent decline in marketing information in 2009 and a cumulative 9.7 percent decrease through 2010. Economic conditions should begin to improve in 2011, and consumer spending
should pick up as well. As consumer spending rises, businesses will devote more resources to marketing and advertising and will spend more on marketing information. We expect spending to increase at lowsingle-digit rates during 201112 and to rise by 7.4 percent in 2013 as the economy returns to healthy growth. Marketing information will total an estimated $1.43 billion in 2013 from $1.42 billion in 2008, a 0.1 percent compound annual increase. Industry information held up relatively well in 2008, with a 5.9 percent advance. A number of industries are still expanding, and there remains interest in investing in the growing markets in the PRC and India. Nevertheless, the weak economic environment will affect this component of the business information market as well. We project a relatively modest, 2.8 percent decrease in 2009 and a recovery beginning in 2010. While industry information will be less hurt by the economic downturn than other sectors will be in the near term, it will benefit less from the expected rebound. While growing faster than either financial or marketing information through 2011, industry information will grow at a slower rate during 201213. Spending in 2013 will total an estimated $2.9 billion from $2.6 billion in 2008, a 1.7 percent compound annual increase.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
584
We project overall spending on business information in Asia Pacific to average 0.1 percent compound annual growth to $7.98 billion in 2013 from $7.95 billion in 2008. Japan, the PRC, and South Korea are the leading territories, at $3.4 billion, $2.2 billion, and $1.7 billion, respectively, in 2008, together constituting 92 percent of total spending in Asia Pacific.
Of the three, the PRC will be the only one to be larger in 2013 than in 2008, by 6.3 percent on a compound annual basis to $3 billion. The PRC will overtake Japan in 2012 to become the largest market in Asia Pacific. Japan will decline at a 5.1 percent compound annual rate to $2.6 billion in 2013, and South Korea will drop to $1.6 billion in 2013, a 1.4 percent decrease compounded annually.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Directory advertising
Print The print directory advertising market in Asia Pacific is dominated by Japan, Australia, and the PRC, which together accounted for 83 percent of spending in 2008. Japan, the largest market, at $2.1 billion, has experienced a shift from print to online ads that contributed to declines in print directory advertising since 2004. With
the economy in Japan now falling at a rapid pace, we expect a sharp deceleration in spending. We project a 20.5 percent decrease in 2009 followed by a 14.3 percent drop in 2010 and continued declines through 2012 totaling 38.7 percent. We expect an improved economic environment to offset the continued shift to the Internet and look for a modest, 0.8 percent uptick in 2013. For the entire forecast period, directory advertising will fall at a 9.2 percent compound annual rate to $1.3 billion in 2013.
585
Although also weakening, the economy in Australia is healthier than that of Japan. Consequently, we do not anticipate declines nearly as precipitous. We project a 6.7 percent drop in 2009 and a cumulative 11.6 percent decrease through 2011. While the Internet will continue to attract resources, we expect Australias stronger economy to mean print directories will remain a staple in the market. We look for a pickup in advertising during 201213. We project spending in 2013 to total $1.2 billion, a 1.6 percent compound annual decrease from 2008. In the PRC, by contrast, rapid economic growth led to double-digit annual gains in directory advertising from 2004 to 2007 as new businesses added listings and existing businesses spent more to generate attention. Growth slowed to 8.1 percent in 2008, and we expect a further drop to low-single-digit gains during the next two years as the economy slows. Improved economic conditions expected during the latter part of the
forecast period will lead to mid-single-digit growth in 2011 and a return to double-digit annual increases during 201213. There is less migration from print to the Internet than in Japan or Australia, and print directories remain an important channel for businesses and are increasingly used by buyers. During the next five years, print directory advertising in the PRC will expand at a 6.6 percent compound annual rate to $1.6 billion in 2013. The PRC will overtake Australia in 2010 and will pass Japan in 2012 to become the largest market in Asia Pacific. South Korea has the only other significant market, at $290 million. We expect directory advertising to plunge by 20.7 percent in 2009 and at a 4.4 percent compound annual rate to $231 million in 2013. Print directory advertising in all of Asia Pacific will total an estimated $4.9 billion in 2013, down 2.2 percent compounded annually from $5.5 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Commercial Economic Advisory Service of Australia, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
586
Online directories Online directory advertising is concentrated in Japan, Australia, the PRC, and South Korea, which together totaled $213 million in 2008, 96 percent of total spending. Spending rose by 24.7 percent in 2008, and we expect a 2.7 percent rise in 2009. Although the adverse economy will cut into overall spending, online share gains will lead to a modest gain. The Internet is an excellent platform for directory advertising because it facilitates search, which is how directories are used. Online directories also can be
updated at any time, while print directories are generally set for a year. The flexibility of online directories will continue to attract advertisers. We expect growth to improve to 10.1 percent in 2010, with annual gains in excess of 20 percent during 201113 as economic conditions improve. For the forecast period as a whole, online directory advertising will grow at an 18 percent compound annual rate, rising to $507 million in 2013 from $222 million in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
587
Total directory advertising Total directory advertising will still decline during the next five years, but the projected decrease of 1 percent compounded annually will be less than half the projected decrease for print alone.
Spending will total $5.4 billion in 2013 from $5.7 billion in 2008. Digital advertising will account for 9.4 percent of total directory advertising in 2013 compared with 3.9 percent in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Trade magazines
Print advertising Trade magazine advertising is particularly sensitive to the economy because it is driven by corporate profits, which can grow rapidly when the economy is expanding, but trade magazine advertising tends to fall sharply when the economy is contracting. The current economic environment is hurting the trade magazine market. The PRC and India are the only countries where we expect trade magazine print advertising to increase in 2009, and gains in those countries will be modest, at only $1 million in each case.
Japan is the dominant trade magazine print advertising market, at $976 million in 2008, 62 percent of the total. Advertising fell by 6.8 percent in 2008, and we expect a 21 percent dive in 2009, with continued decreases through 2012 totaling 33.1 percent. In addition to the very weak economy, print magazines are losing share to the Internet. Although we expect a rebound in 2013, when economic conditions and corporate profits are anticipated to be on the upswing, print advertising will have fallen to $681 million, a 6.9 percent compound annual decrease from 2008. Australia is the second-largest market, at $209 million in 2008, down 0.9 percent from 2007. We look for a
588
near-term decline of 12 percent during the next two years, with spending returning to its 2008 level by 2013 as economic conditions pick up. Hong Kong, South Korea, and the PRC have the only other material markets, at $95 million, $90 million, and $82 million, respectively. In each of those areas, trade magazine advertising continued to grow in 2008, buoyed by a relatively healthy first half. With economic conditions deteriorating rapidly in South Korea and Hong Kong, we project double-digit declines in both countries in 2009 and a low-single-digit drop in 2010. We expect both countries to begin to expand in 2011. In 2013, trade magazine print advertising will total $89
million in Hong Kong, a 1.3 percent compound annual decrease from 2008, and $80 million in South Korea, down 2.3 percent compounded annually. In the PRC, we expect slower economic growth, but not a decline. We therefore look for continued gains during the next two years, albeit at low-single-digit rates, a stronger 7 percent rise in 2011, and double-digit increases from 2011 to 2013 as the economy returns to a strong growth path. Spending will rise to $115 million by 2013, a 7 percent compound annual increase. Total print advertising in trade magazines will decrease to $1.3 billion in 2013 from $1.6 billion in 2008, a 3.6 percent compound annual decline.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: Commercial Economic Advisory Service of Australia, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
589
Digital advertising Trade magazine Web sites are beginning to attract advertising in some countries. Japan is by far the leader, with 79 percent of total digital advertising in 2008. The weak economy in Japan that is cutting into the print market will also affect digital advertising in 2009. We project a 6.1 percent decrease. Share gains in subsequent years will lead to a rebound in digital advertising in 2010, three years before we expect an increase in print advertising. By 2013, digital advertising
in Japan will total a projected $89 million from $49 million in 2008, a 12.7 percent compound annual increase. Australia is the only other material market, at $7 million in 2008. Advertisers are moving funds to the Internet from traditional media, and we expect digital advertising in trade magazines to more than triple during the next five years to $23 million in 2013. Total digital advertising in Asia Pacific will increase from $62 million in 2008 to $136 million in 2013, a 17 percent compound annual gain.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
590
Total trade magazine advertising Digital advertising will account for 9.5 percent of total trade magazine advertising in 2013, up from 3.8 percent in 2008.
That growth will not offset declines in print advertising. Total trade magazine advertising will still be lower in 2013 than in 2008, falling at a 2.5 percent compound annual rate to $1.4 billion from $1.6 billion in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Commercial Economic Advisory Service of Australia, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
591
Circulation spending Although trade magazines are often distributed for free to targeted readers, there is a significant paid circulation market that totaled $1.4 billion in 2008. Circulation spending fell by 2.1 percent in 2008, and we expect falling employment to lead to further declines during the next two years. We expect a cumulative 10.6 percent drop through 2010. Improved economic conditions will lead to employment growth and an expanding audience for trade magazines during 201113 in most countries. We expect a 6.5 percent increase during that period. Spending of $1.3 billion in 2013 will be 1 percent lower on a compound annual basis from 2008.
Paid circulation in Japan, the leading market, at $867 million in 2008, will fall at a 2.7 percent compound annual rate to $758 million in 2013. In the PRC, by contrast, circulation spending will increase by 4.9 percent compounded annually to $276 million from $217 million in 2008. Australia, the only other territory above $100 million, will fall by 9.1 percent during the next two years, remain flat through 2012, and then edge up to $103 million in 2013, 1.3 percent lower on a compound annual basis from $110 million in 2008. Total trade magazine spending Overall spending on trade magazines will decrease from $3 billion in 2008 to $2.7 billion in 2013, a 1.8 percent compound annual decline.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
592
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Professional books
Print The professional print book market is dominated by the PRC, at $1.6 billion, and Japan, at $1.5 billion, together constituting 73 percent of total spending in 2008. The PRC passed Japan in 2008 with a 4.8 percent gain to become the largest territory. Spending in Japan fell by 2.1 percent in 2008. Economic growth and the expansion of its professional workforce boosted the professional book market in the PRC by 36 percent from 2004 to 2008. A slower economy and a shift to electronic books will limit spending on print books during the next five years. We project growth to average 1.1 percent compounded annually to $1.7 billion in 2013.
Japan also is experiencing migration to electronic books. The declining economy will lead to steeper decreases during the next three years. Improved economic conditions will limit declines thereafter, but the continued shift to electronic books will result in continued low-single-digit decreases in print books. The print market will drop to $1.3 billion by 2013, a 3.2 percent compound annual decrease from 2008. South Korea has the next-largest market, at $472 million in 2008, down 0.4 percent from 2007. As in Japan, migration to electronic books and a declining economy are hurting the print professional market. We expect decreases averaging 3.1 percent compounded annually during the next five years to $404 million in 2013. For Asia Pacific as a whole, we expect the print professional book market to decline at a 1 percent compound annual rate, falling from $4.3 billion in 2008 to $4 billion in 2013.
593
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
594
Electronic The electronic professional book market totaled $161 million in 2008, with virtually all of those sales in Japan, the PRC, and South Korea. Large broadband markets in those countries make electronic books feasible. Because professional books are often used for reference, they lend themselves to electronic formats that facilitate search.
During the next five years, Australia, Taiwan, and New Zealand will also develop material electronic professional book markets. We expect the overall electronic professional book market in Asia Pacific to increase to $569 million in 2013, a 28.7 percent gain compounded annually.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
595
Total professional books Electronic books will provide a boost to the market, converting a 1 percent compound annual decrease in print to a 0.9 percent gain compounded annually in total spending.
Electronic books will account for 12.4 percent of spending in 2013, up from 3.6 percent in 2008. Total spending on professional books will increase from $4.4 billion in 2008 to $4.6 billion in 2013.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
596
Latin America
Total directory advertising will increase at a 0.2 percent compound annual rate, from $891 million in 2008 to $898 million in 2013. After falling by 11.4 percent during the next two years, print advertising in trade magazines will rebound with a projected 15.3 percent advance during the subsequent three years, reaching $287 million in 2013 from $281 million in 2008, a 0.4 percent compound annual increase. Advertising on trade magazine Web sites will total $24 million in 2013 from only $4 million in 2008, a 43.1 percent compound annual increase from a tiny base. Total trade magazine advertising will rise to $311 million in 2013, a 1.8 percent compound annual increase. Circulation spending will grow at a 0.4 percent annual rate to $195 million in 2013 from $191 million in 2008. The total trade magazine market will expand at a 1.2 percent compound annual rate from $476 million in 2008 to $506 million in 2013. Spending on professional print books will advance at a 0.5 percent annual rate to $758 million in 2013 from $738 million in 2008. Total business-to-business advertising will rise from $1.18 billion in 2008 to $1.21 billion in 2013, a 0.6 percent compound annual increase. Total end-user spending will rise at an 0.8 percent compound annual rate to $2.7 billion in 2013 from $2.6 billion in 2008.
Overview
Business-to-business publishing in Latin America will decrease by 6.6 percent during the next two years and then expand by 11.1 percent during 201113, rising to $3.9 billion from $3.8 billion in 2008, an 0.8 percent compound annual increase. Business information will total $1.8 billion in 2013 from $1.7 billion in 2008, growing at a 1 percent compound annual rate. Print directory advertising will fall from $875 million in 2008 to $833 million in 2013, a 1 percent decrease on a compound annual basis. Online directory advertising will increase from $16 million in 2008 to $65 million in 2013, a 32.4 percent compound annual increase from a small base.
597
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
598
Latin America does not have a well-developed business-to-business publishing market. Economic instability during the 1990s and the early part of the current decade limited demand, and a market only began to develop in recent years as the economy has become able to achieve a sustained expansion. From 2004 to 2007, business-to-business publishing expanded at an 8.3 percent compound annual rate. Growth slowed to 1.7 percent in 2008 as economic conditions again began to decline. In contrast with the early part of the decade, the economic problems facing Latin America are largely the result of falling demand from the United States and Europe and of the international credit decline rather than structural imbalances in the region. Nevertheless, the Latin American economy will be adversely affected during the next two years, which in turn will lead to declines in business-to-business publishing.
Brazil and Mexico are the largest markets in the region, at $1.7 billion and $1.2 billion, respectively, in 2008, together constituting 78 percent of total spending in Latin America. Argentina is next, at $314 million. Argentina has been the fastest-growing market in Latin America during the past three years, the result of a surging advertising market and high inflation. High inflation will continue to boost nominal spending, although the underlying market has weakened. We project a 3.4 percent compound annual increase during the next five years. High inflation in Venezuela will lead to a 1.3 percent compound annual increase. The remaining countries will record declines during the next two to three years that will roughly be offset by subsequent increases so that spending in 2013 will be within one percentage point on a compound annual basis from spending in 2008.
599
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Business information
The financial crisis began to affect Latin America in the latter part of 2008. Financial institutions are facing capital shortages and have cut back on their lending. In the process, the need for credit information has declined. Spending on financial information fell 0.4 percent in 2008 following a 7.4 percent gain in 2007. As economic conditions worsen, investment and lending activity will decline, as will spending on financial information. We project decreases of 8 percent in 2009 and a further, 5.5 percent drop in 2010. We then look for a pickup in the economy that will lead to increased borrowing and growing demand for financial information. We project spending from 2010 to 2013 to rise by 13.2 percent, bringing the total in 2013 to $739 million, 0.3 percent lower on a compound annual basis from $751 million in 2008. Cutbacks in consumer spending are leading to cutbacks in advertising and marketing, which in turn will lead to cutbacks in spending on marketing information. We expect a 5.2 percent decline in 2009 followed by a 2.9 percent decrease in 2010. We
then look for a recovery in consumer spending that will generate a pickup in advertising and marketing and increased spending on marketing information. Spending will expand by 10.1 percent during 201113. During the entire forecast period, spending will rise at a 0.3 percent compound annual rate from $364 million in 2008 to $369 million in 2013. Industry information was the fastest-growing component of business information in 2008, with a 5.7 percent advance. Industry information is less affected by the declining economy as long-term interest in Latin America remains. We expect industry information to continue to expand during the next two years, although at slower rates compared with the past few years. We also expect a slower rebound during 201113, as this segment is less cyclical. Spending in 2013 will total an estimated $648 million, a 3.2 percent compound annual increase from $554 million in 2008. Spending on business information will advance at a 1 percent compound annual rate to $1.8 billion in 2013 from $1.7 billion in 2008.
600
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Directory advertising
Print Print directory advertising surged at double-digit annual rates from 2004 to 2007. Economic expansion during that period fueled overall advertising, and directories were adopted as an easy and relatively inexpensive way for companies to enhance their presence in the market, particularly for small businesses. At the same time, the trend of advertisers to shift funds to the Internet has been much less pronounced in Latin America. Consequently, print directories face less competition from the Internet than they do in other regions.
The directory market has now experienced the downside of that cycle. Small businessesand businesses in generalare reducing their marketing outlays, and directories have been affected by that trend. Directory advertising fell 0.5 percent in 2008, and we expect additional declines totaling 11.7 percent through 2011. When economic conditions improve, we look for directories to again expand, although not at doubledigit levels, because the Internet is beginning to attract advertising in Latin America, some of which will likely come from print directories. We expect print directory advertising to remain lower in 2013 than in 2008, with spending falling from $875 million to $833 million, a 1 percent compound annual decrease.
601
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Online directories The online directory advertising market in Latin America is small, at only $16 million in 2008. Only in the past few years has a market developed. Previously, low broadband penetration and limited Internet access discouraged publishers from going online.
The broadband market is now expanding, and we expect that rising penetration will lead to increased use of online directories. We project online directory advertising in Latin America to grow at a 32.4 percent compound annual rate to $65 million by 2013.
2007 1 3 3 7
2008p 2 7 1 6 16
2009 2 7 1 1 7 18
2010 3 9 1 1 8 22
2011 3 13 1 2 11 1 31
2012 5 20 1 2 16 1 45
2013 8 27 2 3 23 2 65
602
Total directory advertising Total directory advertising in Latin America will edge up at a 0.2 percent compound annual rate to $898 million in 2013 from $891 million in 2008.
Digital advertising will constitute 7.2 percent of total directory advertising in 2013 from only 1.8 percent in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Trade magazines
Print advertising Trade magazine print advertising benefited during the 200407 period (1) by an expanding economy that created opportunities for smaller companies to compete and (2) from international suppliers entering the market and advertising in trade magazines in Latin America. Growth was fueled by an expanding telecommunications marketa key component of trade magazine advertisingand by rising oil revenues in Mexico and Venezuela, which led to increased investment in other industries. From 2004 to 2007, print advertising in trade magazines rose at a 9.7 percent compound annual rate.
The economy reversed course during the latter part of 2008. Oil revenues began to fall, the building and financial services markets tumbled, and advertising in trade magazines weakened. Growth fell to 1.8 percent. With a full-year downturn in the economy, we expect an 8.9 percent decline in trade magazine advertising, a figure that would be lower if it were not for high inflation in Argentina and other countries. We look for the downturn to continue through 2010, with the market stabilizing in 2011 and then returning to a growth path, with a projected 9.1 percent rise in 2013. For the forecast period as a whole, print advertising in trade magazines will increase to $287 million from $281 million in 2008, a 0.4 percent compound annual increase.
603
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Digital advertising Latin America does not have a significant digital advertising market. Broadband penetration is still low, and advertisers are not yet using the Internet to the degree they are in other regions. Trade magazines generated only $4 million in Web site advertising in 2008. We expect the Internet to become a much more important advertising channel during the next five
years. Broadband will become common, and online advertising will be more routinely used in conjunction with more-traditional media. As the Internet market develops, trade magazines will put resources into their Web sites, which in turn will attract advertising. We project trade magazine digital advertising to increase to $24 million by 2013.
2007 1 1 2
2008p 2 2 4
2009 1 2 2 5
2010 1 3 3 7
2011 1 4 1 4 10
2012 2 7 1 1 6 17
2013 3 10 1 1 9 24
604
Total advertising Total trade magazine advertising, including digital advertising, will increase at a 1.8 percent compound
annual rate to $311 million in 2013. Digital advertising will constitute 7.7 percent of total advertising in 2013 compared with only 1.4 percent in 2008.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Circulation Circulation spending fell by 0.5 percent in 2008 following a 7.9 percent gain in 2007. With employment beginning to fall, the potential audience for trade magazines is shrinking. We project circulation spending to decline by an additional 8.4 percent during the next two years. We then look for employment to rise as the economy improves and expect circulation spending to increase during 201113.
By 2013, circulation spending will total an estimated $195 million, up 0.4 percent compounded annually from $191 million in 2008. Total trade magazine spending Total trade magazine spending will grow from $476 million in 2008 to $506 million in 2013, a 1.2 percent compound annual increase.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Less than US$500,000. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
605
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
Professional books
The professional book market is small in Latin America and concentrated in Brazil and Mexico, which together account for 93 percent of total spending. As with other components of business-to-business publishing, professional books are affected by the economy. Spending growth slowed in 2008 to 2.4 percent following compound annual increases of 4.2 percent from 2004 to 2007. In contrast with other regions, electronic books do not have a significant presence in Latin America. Consequently, there has not been the material migration
from print to electronic formats that has characterized professional book markets in other regions. We are not expecting electronic books to play a role in the market during the next five years. We expect spending to decline during the next two years as employment falls, with a rebound expected during 201113 as economic conditions improve and as employment rebounds. Spending on professional books will total an estimated $758 million in 2013 from $738 million in 2008, a 0.5 percent increase compounded annually.
At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
606
The E&M landscape in 2013: no hiding place from the migration to digital
Digital versus nondigital spend, 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Digital versus nondigital spend, 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Spending growth by segment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Market share by segment, 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Nominal GDP growth by region (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Market share by segment, 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Global E&M and nominal GDP growth (%). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Spending/GDP growth comparison . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Growth of consumer spend on digital/mobile platforms. . . . . . . . . 18 Advertising targeted to new consumer behaviors . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
608
Entertainment and media spending, France . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Entertainment and media spending, Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 Internet access market: wired and mobile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Internet access market: wired and mobile by country . . . . . . . . . . 72 Advertising by segment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Advertising by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 Consumer/end-user spending by segment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Consumer/end-user spending (excluding Internet access) by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
Latin America
Entertainment and media market by segment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 Entertainment and media market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 Entertainment and media spending, Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Internet access market: wired and mobile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 Internet access market: wired and mobile by country . . . . . . . . . . 90 Advertising by segment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Advertising by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 Consumer/end-user spending by segment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 Consumer/end-user spending (excluding Internet access) by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
Asia Pacific
Entertainment and media market by segment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Entertainment and media market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 Entertainment and media spending, Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 Entertainment and media spending, China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 Entertainment and media spending, India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 Internet access market: wired and mobile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 Internet access market: wired and mobile by country . . . . . . . . . . 82 Advertising by segment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 Advertising by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
Methodology
Exchange rates per US$ (2008 average) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 Nominal GDP growth by country (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
609
Internet access market growth: wired and mobile by component (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 Internet access market: wired and mobile by country . . . . . . . . . 130 Broadband households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 Broadband household penetration (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 Wired broadband access spending . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 Wired dial-up households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 Wired dial-up household penetration (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 Wired dial-up access spending . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 Wired Internet households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 Wired Internet household penetration (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 Mobile access subscribers as a percent of wireless telephone subscribers in Asia Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 Mobile access market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
Latin America
Internet access market: wired and mobile by component . . . . . . . 142 Internet access market growth: wired and mobile by component (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 Internet access market: wired and mobile by country . . . . . . . . . 143 Broadband households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 Broadband household penetration (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 Internet households in Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 Dial-up households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 Dial-up household penetration (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 Internet households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 Internet household penetration (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 Broadband access spending . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 Dial-up access spending. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 Mobile access subscribers as a percent of wireless telephone subscribers in Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 Mobile access market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
Asia Pacific
Internet access market: wired and mobile by component . . . . . . . 129
610
Wired Internet search advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 Wired Internet search advertising market growth (%) . . . . . . . . . 155 Wired Internet rich media/video advertising market . . . . . . . . . . 156 Wired Internet rich media/video advertising market growth (%). . . . 156 Wired Internet advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 Wired Internet advertising market growth (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 Mobile Internet subscribers in North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 Mobile Internet advertising market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 Mobile Internet advertising market growth (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
Asia Pacific
Internet advertising market: wired and mobile by component. . . . . 166 Internet advertising market growth: wired and mobile by component (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166 Internet advertising market: wired and mobile by country. . . . . . . 167 Wired Internet advertising and broadband household growth in Asia Pacific (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168 Wired Internet advertising market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169 Mobile Internet subscribers in Asia Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170 Mobile TV subscribers in Asia Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170 Mobile Internet advertising market by country. . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
Latin America
Internet advertising market: wired and mobile by component. . . . . 172 Internet advertising market growth: wired and mobile by component (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172 Internet advertising market: wired and mobile by country. . . . . . . 173 Annual Internet advertising per broadband household, 2008 . . . . . 173 Broadband households in Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174 Wired Internet advertising market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174 Mobile access subscribers in Latin America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175 Mobile TV subscribers in Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175 Mobile Internet advertising market by country. . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
611
Subscription spending growth per household in EMEA (%) . . . . . . 206 TV subscription market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207 VOD households in Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208 Annual VOD spending per household in Western Europe . . . . . . . 208 Video-on-demand and subscription VOD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209 Pay-per-view spending. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210 Mobile TV market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212 Public TV license fees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214
Television advertising
North America
Television advertising market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243 Television advertising market growth by component (%) . . . . . . . 243 Television advertising market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244 Television advertising market growth by country (%) . . . . . . . . . 244 2008 networks advertising growth in North America (%) . . . . . . . 245 Broadcast network and local television advertising market . . . . . . 245 Broadcast network and local television advertising market growth (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 Television station and multichannel systems advertising market . . . 247 Television station and multichannel systems advertising market growth (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247 DVR households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248 Broadcast network advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250 Broadcast network advertising market growth (%) . . . . . . . . . . 250 Cable network advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252 Cable network advertising market growth (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252
Asia Pacific
TV subscription and license fee market by component . . . . . . . . 215 TV subscription and license fee market growth by component (%) . . 215 TV subscription and license fee market by country . . . . . . . . . . 216 Subscription TV households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217 Subscription TV penetration of TV households (%) . . . . . . . . . . 218 IPTV households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 IPTV penetration of TV households (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221 Cable households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222 Cable penetration of TV households (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223 Satellite households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224 Satellite penetration of TV households (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225 TV subscription market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226 VOD households in Asia Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226 Annual spending per VOD household in Asia Pacific . . . . . . . . . 227 Video-on-demand and subscription VOD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227 Pay-per-view spending. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228 Mobile TV market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230 TV households in countries with public TV license fees . . . . . . . . 230 Public TV license fees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
Asia Pacific
Television advertising market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262 Television advertising market growth by component (%) . . . . . . . 262 Television advertising market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 264 Television advertising growth in Asia Pacific (%) . . . . . . . . . . . 264 Multichannel advertising growth in Asia Pacific (%) . . . . . . . . . . 265 Multichannel advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266 Terrestrial advertising growth in Asia Pacific (%) . . . . . . . . . . . 267 Terrestrial advertising growth in Japan and the rest of Asia Pacific (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267 Terrestrial advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 268
Latin America
TV subscription and license fee market by component . . . . . . . . 232 TV subscription and license fee market growth by component (%) . . 232 TV subscription and license fee market by country . . . . . . . . . . 233 Subscription TV households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234 Subscription TV penetration of TV households (%) . . . . . . . . . . 234 Cable households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235 Cable penetration of TV households (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235 IPTV households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236 Subscription satellite households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236 Subscription satellite penetration of TV households (%) . . . . . . . 237 TV subscription market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237 VOD households in Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238 Video-on-demand and subscription VOD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238 Mobile TV market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
Latin America
Television advertising market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269 Television advertising market growth by component (%) . . . . . . . 269 Television advertising market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270 Television advertising in Latin America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
612
Filmed entertainment
North America
Filmed entertainment market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307 Filmed entertainment market growth by component (%) . . . . . . . 308 Filmed entertainment market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308 Average admission price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310 Admissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310 Box office market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311 Physical sell-through market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312 In-store rental market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312 Digital download market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313 Online rental subscriptions market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 314 Home video market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315 Shares of filmed entertainment revenue in North America (%) . . . . 315
Recorded music
North America
Recorded music market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 276 Recorded music market growth by component (%) . . . . . . . . . . 276 Recorded music market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277 Broadband households in North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278 Licensed Internet recorded music market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278 Mobile phone recorded music market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279 Digital recorded music market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280 Physical recorded music market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280
Asia Pacific
Recorded music market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291 Recorded music market growth by component (%) . . . . . . . . . . 291 Recorded music market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293 Mobile phone recorded music market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294 Broadband subscribers in Asia Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295 Licensed Internet recorded music market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 296 Digital recorded music market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297 Physical recorded music market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298
Asia Pacific
Filmed entertainment market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 Filmed entertainment market growth by component (%) . . . . . . . 331 Filmed entertainment market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332 Admissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334 Average admission price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335 Box office market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 336 Physical sell-through market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337 In-store rental market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 338 Online subscription rental market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 339 Digital download market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 340 Home video market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341
Latin America
Recorded music market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299 Recorded music market growth by component (%) . . . . . . . . . . 299 Recorded music market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 Mobile phone recorded music market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301 Broadband households in Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301 Licensed Internet recorded music market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302 Digital recorded music market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302 Physical recorded music market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303
Latin America
Filmed entertainment market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342 Filmed entertainment market growth by component (%) . . . . . . . 342
613
Filmed entertainment market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 343 Admissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 344 Average admission price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 344 Box office market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345 Physical sell-through market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 346 In-store rental market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 346 Home video market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347
Console/handheld game market) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 390 PC game market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 391 Wireless game market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 391 Online game market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 392 Video game advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393
Video games
North America
Video game market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 353 Video game market growth by component (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . 354 Video game market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 354 Console/handheld game market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 357 Online game market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 359 Wireless game market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 360 PC game market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 362 Video game advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363
Asia Pacific
Radio/out-of-home market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 419 Radio/out-of-home market growth by component (%) . . . . . . . . 419 Radio/out-of-home advertising in Asia Pacific. . . . . . . . . . . . . 420 Radio/out-of-home market by country. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 421 Out-of-home advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 423 Radio advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 425 Public radio license fees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 426 Total radio market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 427
Asia Pacific
Video game market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 378 Video game market growth by component (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . 379 Video game market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 380 Console/handheld game market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 382 Online game market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 384 Wireless game market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385 PC game market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 386 Video game advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 387
Latin America
Radio/out-of-home market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 428 Radio/out-of-home market by country. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 428 Radio advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 429 Out-of-home advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 430
Latin America
Video game market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 388 Video game market growth by component (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . 388 Video game market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 389
614
Consumer magazine digital advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . 461 Consumer magazine total advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . 461 Consumer magazine circulation spending market . . . . . . . . . . . 462
Newspaper publishing
North America
Newspaper publishing market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . 465 Newspaper publishing market growth by component (%). . . . . . . 465 Newspaper publishing market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 466 Newspaper publishing market growth by country (%). . . . . . . . . 466 US print classified advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 468 US print classified advertising market growth (%) . . . . . . . . . . . 468 Print newspaper classified advertising market. . . . . . . . . . . . . 468 Print newspaper classified advertising market growth (%) . . . . . . 469 Print newspaper retail advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 469 Print newspaper retail advertising market growth (%) . . . . . . . . . 470 Print newspaper national advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . 470 Print newspaper national advertising market growth (%) . . . . . . . 470 Print newspaper advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471 Print newspaper advertising market growth (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . 471 Digital newspaper advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 472 Digital newspaper advertising market growth (%) . . . . . . . . . . . 472 Total newspaper advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 473 Total newspaper advertising market growth (%). . . . . . . . . . . . 473 Daily newspaper unit circulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 475 Daily newspaper paid unit circulation growth (%) . . . . . . . . . . . 475 Newspaper circulation spending market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 476 Newspaper circulation spending market growth (%) . . . . . . . . . 476
Asia Pacific
Consumer magazine publishing market by component . . . . . . . . 450 Consumer magazine publishing market growth by component (%) . . 451 Consumer magazine publishing market by country . . . . . . . . . . 452 Consumer magazine print advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . 453 Mobile Internet access subscribers in Asia Pacific . . . . . . . . . . 454 Consumer magazine digital advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . 455 Consumer magazine total advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . 456 Consumer magazine circulation spending market . . . . . . . . . . . 457
Latin America
Consumer magazine publishing market by component . . . . . . . . 458 Consumer magazine publishing market growth by component (%) . . 458 Consumer magazine publishing market by country . . . . . . . . . . 459 Consumer magazine print advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . 460 Broadband and mobile Internet access subscribers in Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 460
Asia Pacific
Newspaper publishing market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . 488 Newspaper publishing market growth by component (%). . . . . . . 488
615
Newspaper market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 490 Daily newspaper unit circulation in Asia Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . 491 Print newspaper advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 492 Paid daily newspaper unit circulation in Asia Pacific . . . . . . . . . 493 Daily newspaper unit circulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 494 Newspaper circulation spending market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 495 Digital newspaper advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 496 Total newspaper advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 497
Electronic consumer book market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521 Total consumer book market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 522 Size of the 6- to 17-year-old population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 523 Print educational book market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 525 Electronic educational book market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 526 Total educational book market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 527
Asia Pacific
Consumer and educational book publishing market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 528 Consumer and educational book publishing market growth by component (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 529 Consumer and educational book publishing market by country . . . 530 Print/audio consumer book growth in Asia Pacific (%) . . . . . . . . 530 Print/audio consumer book market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 531 Electronic consumer book market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 532 Total consumer book market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 533 Size of the 6- to 17-year-old population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 534 Print educational book market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 535 Electronic educational book market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 536 Total educational book market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 537
Latin America
Newspaper publishing market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . 498 Newspaper publishing market growth by component (%). . . . . . . 498 Newspaper market by country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 499 Daily newspaper circulation in Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . 499 Print newspaper advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 500 Paid circulation in Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 501 Daily newspaper paid unit circulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 501 Newspaper circulation spending market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 501 Broadband households in Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 502 Digital newspaper advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 502 Total newspaper advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 503
Latin America
Consumer and educational book publishing market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 538 Consumer and educational book publishing market growth by component (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 538 Consumer and educational book publishing market by country . . . 539 Books spending growth in Latin America (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 539 Size of the 6- to 17-year-old population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 540 Print educational book market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 540 Print consumer book market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 541
Business-to-business publishing
North America
Business-to-business publishing market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 547 Business-to-business publishing market growth (%) . . . . . . . . . 548 Business-to-business publishing market by country . . . . . . . . . 548 Business information market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . 550 Business information market by country. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 550 Print directory advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 551 Digital directory advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 551 Total directory advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 552 Trade magazine print advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 553
616
Trade magazine digital advertising market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 553 Trade magazine total advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 554 Trade magazine circulation spending market . . . . . . . . . . . . . 554 Total trade magazine publishing market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 555 Professional book print market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 555 Professional book electronic market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 556 Total professional book market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 556
Business-to-business publishing market by country . . . . . . . . . 583 Business information market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . 584 Business information market by country. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 585 Print directory advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 586 Digital directory advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 587 Total directory advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 588 Trade magazine print advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 589 Trade magazine digital advertising market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 590 Total trade magazine advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 591 Trade magazine circulation spending market . . . . . . . . . . . . . 592 Trade magazine publishing market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 593 Professional book print market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 594 Professional book electronic market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 595 Total professional book market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 596
Latin America
Business-to-business publishing market by component . . . . . . . 598 Business-to-business publishing market growth by component (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 599 Business-to-business publishing market by country . . . . . . . . . 600 Business information market by component . . . . . . . . . . . . . 601 Business information market by country. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 601 Print directory advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 602 Digital directory advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 602 Total directory advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 603 Trade magazine print advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 604 Trade magazine digital advertising market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 604 Trade magazine total advertising market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 605 Trade magazine circulation spending market . . . . . . . . . . . . . 605 Total trade magazine publishing market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 606 Professional book print market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 606
Asia Pacific
Business-to-business publishing market by component . . . . . . . 581 Business-to-business publishing market growth by component (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 582
617
pwc.com/outlook
By using postconsumer recycled bre in lieu of virgin bre: 129 trees were preserved for the future 372 lbs of waterborne waste were not created 54,740 gallons of wastewater ow were saved 4,057 lbs of solid waste were not generated 11,925 lbs net of greenhouse gases were prevented 91,277,760 of BTUs energy were not consumed