NPR

Scientists Are Not So Hot At Predicting Which Cancer Studies Will Succeed

A scientist tested his peers' ability to pick which cancer experiments would pan out. They failed more often than not, which doesn't say much for intuition or efficiency in the scientific process.
Science relies on the careful collection and analysis of facts. Science also benefits from human judgment, but that intuition isn't necessarily reliable. A study finds that scientists did a poor job forecasting whether a successful experiment would work on a second try. / Roy Scott / Getty Images

Science relies on the careful collection and analysis of facts. Science also benefits from human judgment, but that intuition isn't necessarily reliable. A study finds that scientists did a poor job forecasting whether a successful experiment would work on a second try.

That matters, because scientists can waste a lot of time if they read the results from another lab and eagerly chase after bum leads.

"There are lots of different candidates for drugs you

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