Mood swings

Barely a fortnight ago, the political trends emerging from the three heartland states- Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh- scheduled for assembly elections in December reflected fierce anti-incumbency. Two pre-poll surveys, conducted in May and August by CSDS (the Centre for Study of Developing Societies) and C-Voter respectively, had predicted a clean sweep for the Congress party in all three states.

But as elections get closer and the campaign hots up, the tide seems to be turning. The simple one-way anti-incumbency against the BJP noticed in early surveys has begun to appear messier. With the exception of Rajasthan, which seems bent on bringing down the Vasundhara Raje-led BJP government, the India Today-Axis Political Stock Exchange (PSE) pre-poll survey in September recorded a slight advantage for the Raman Singh-led