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    Judgnomics: Applying Measurements to Certainty
    Judgnomics: Applying Measurements to Certainty
    Judgnomics: Applying Measurements to Certainty
    Ebook194 pages1 hour

    Judgnomics: Applying Measurements to Certainty

    By Robert Burbank

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    About this ebook

    In all areas of life, we receive and provide information. Making a decision based on bad information can lead to disaster. How can we determine the validity of a piece of data? We try to evaluate the people who provide us with information. Are they usually accurate, seldom accurate, or rarely accurate. Although this can assist us in understanding the validity of provided information, it is still a weak understanding.
    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherBookBaby
    Release dateDec 17, 2012
    ISBN9781595947918
    Judgnomics: Applying Measurements to Certainty

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      Book preview

      Judgnomics - Robert Burbank

      Judgnomics

      Applying Measurements to Certainty

      Robert Burbank

      WingSpan Press

      Copyright © 2012 by Robert Burbank

      All rights reserved.

      No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner

      without written permission of the author,

      except for brief quotations used in reviews and critiques.

      Printed in the United States of America

      Published by WingSpan Press, Livermore, CA

      www.wingspanpress.com

      The WingSpan name, logo and colophon

      are the trademarks of WingSpan Publishing.

      First Edition 2012

      ISBN 978-1-59594-478-8 (pbk.)

      ISBN 978-1-59594-689-8 (hardcover)

      ISBN 978-1-59594-791-8 (ebk.)

      Library of Congress Control Number: 2012946772

      Acknowledgements

      Thanks to Sue Schiappa for all the editing you did. Editing text written by an engineer ain’t easy. You not only made a multitude of grammatical corrections, you made the words flow much better. Thanks again Sue.

      Thanks to David Collins of Wingspan Press. This is the second time that you have moved a script of mine from raw input to a well-structured book. Thank you.

      Dedication

      To my parents for making me believe I could do anything I set my mind to.

      To my wife, Kathryn, for the wonderful job she did in raising our children, for her love, and for her patience with me.

      To my children: Carrie, Amy, and Tom, I am so proud of you all.

      To my grandchildren: Sarah, Lauren, Myles, Molly and Kate, you have more love than you know.

      Table Of Contents

      Chapter 1—Introduction 1

      Chapter 2—Judgnomics—Measuring Certainty 11

      Chapter 3—Judgment Weighted Scoring 21

      Chapter 4—Participant Measurements 39

      Chapter 5—Judgment Weighted Scoring System Cycle— Using Measurements 49

      Chapter 6—Test for the Reader 59

      Chapter 7—Worth—Value of Answer to Question 79

      Chapter 8—Using Measurements in Making Decisions 85

      Chapter 9—Education / Testing 101

      Chapter 10—Implementation and Implementation Impediments 107

      Chapter 11—Future Testing 121

      Chapter 12—Summary / Conclusion­—Further Thoughts 131

      Appendices

      I— Glossary of Terms 137

      II— Answers to Test Questions in Chapter 6 143

      III— Development of Judgment Level Point System 149

      Preface

      Sir William Thompson, Lord Kelvin (1824-1907) said it best:

      When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge of it is of a meager and unsatisfactory kind....

      In all phases of life, we both, receive information and provide information. Obtaining a correct answer can be extremely valuable. Making a decision on bad information can lead to disaster. How can we determine the validity of a piece of data? The people at home, work, and play provide us with information. We can evaluate these people and try to determine if the confidence they express is usually accurate, seldom accurate, or rarely accurate. However, although this can assist us in understanding the validity of provided information, it is a weak understanding. This book applies measurements and mathematics to a participant’s certainty that a piece of data is correct. This can lead to a much clearer understanding of the validity of the data. The book goes on to explore these measurements, and in particular, how they can be used to make better decisions.

      Chapter 1

      Introduction

      I wish I could be half as sure of anything as some people are of everything. Gerald Barzan

      When you ask a person to respond with an answer to a question, you look for two things:

      1.  The answer to the question based on the knowledge, experience, etc. of the responder.

      2.  A statement that describes the responder’s certainty that the answer is correct. Ultimately, you would like to know the probability that this information is accurate.

      This chapter describes a number of problem areas associated with understanding the certainty attached to an answer. The chapter also introduces a proposal for working towards both a better understanding of certainty and better decision making.

      Understanding Certainty—The Problems

      1) An Expression of Certainty Can Greatly Vary in Meaning from One Person to Another

      Definition: Expression of Certainty will refer to any term or phrase used to indicate the probability of a piece of data being correct.

      When receiving information from a person, there is always a question of reliability. People express their certainty in many ways. An expression of certainty used by one person will mean something completely different to another person. People make statements such as I am positive that I am correct. or "This is the answer. However, the meaning of these statements can vary greatly from one person to another. Some of these people are almost always correct in their assertions. Others are frequently wrong. If we accept an overzealous statement of certainty or a bad judgment, it can lead to costly decisions. In a similar manner, two people using an expression that describes a less than positive certainty (e.g., I am fairly sure that I am correct.") may have two very different meanings. Our understanding of the statements of certainty that people use can be improved through observation but that understanding is limited.

      2) Assessing a Person’s Certainty—Wide Variety of Expressions

      Frequently, people try to provide a clearer description of their certainty by using such phrases as: I am positive, almost positive, unsure, fairly certain, etc. They try to insert some gradation in their expressed certainty by saying things like "I am not absolutely positive, but, I am somewhat sure. This creates a wide variety of ways to describe your expressions of certainty—a very wide variety of phrases and terms. However, each person has their own idea of what these terms and phrases mean. To understand what people mean when they use these expressions is a difficult task. Our understanding of expressions of certainty is hampered by the wide variety of expressions used.

      3) Group Decisions—Comparing/Merging Positions Taken to Make Decisions

      When two or more people are making an important decision, how can the knowledge of these people be weighed and compared for use in obtaining the best answer. As outlined above, one of the greatest impediments to solving this issue is the difficulty in attaching an accurate, well understood statement of certainty to each key piece of information that flows within the group.

      Group decisions can also be adversely affected as a result of the various personality traits that exist. Some people are cautious or timid. These people tend to be reluctant to exhibit a justified certainty in their position while others are overconfident. Some people may express a smooth, slick, but unjustified certainty, and others a loud overconfident position. Bureaucrats try to avoid taking a position. This book attempts to find a way to obtain information from all participants in a manner where they are motivated to take a position on the issues at hand, and, attach a specific expression of certainty to each of these positions. They are then tracked/measured (and held accountable) to both the positions taken and to the expression of certainty taken. The intent is to get, each participant’s best information and a reasonable estimate as to the accuracy of this information.

      Merging different expressions of certainty makes things even more difficult. For example, three people meet to solve a problem. They discuss the problem arguing back and forth. One person is absolutely positive that he has the correct answer to the problem. The other two arrive at a different answer and are fairly certain (but not positive) that their answer is correct. How do you weigh the positions taken by these three people?

      4) Testing and Education

      Currently many attempts to measure knowledge do not measure the person’s certainty of each answer. This is particularly true in areas such as true/false tests and multiple choice tests. Tests that do provide clearer expressions of certainty are: essay questions, calculation problems, oral exams, etc. If we consider a multiple choice test and look at the results of two people, they might have the same number of correct answers but have different knowledge levels. One person may have 5 wrong answers but a perfect understanding of 45 questions and their answers. Another person may also have 45 correct and 5 wrong answers, but have only a vague understanding of the answers. It could be argued that it doesn’t matter if one person is more certain, they both got the same number of correct answers. However, assume that one of these questions relates to brain surgery. I know I want the surgeon who has a clear understanding of the question and answer, not someone with a superficial understanding. I want a person who is so sure that they are right, that they will bet their life on the outcome. Would it be beneficial to improve our understanding of a person’s certainty when you are trying to hire someone?

      Can we learn more about a person’s retention of knowledge by applying measurements to certainty?

      Where Do We Go?

      It is interesting that Billie Beane, the Oakland Athletic’s General Manager, expanded the use of measurements to baseball. He used these measurements to improve his team’s chances of winning. His use of measurements changed professional baseball. Before his use of measurements, a

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