The Modi Doctrine: New Paradigms in India's Foreign Policy

Editors

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vigorous foreign policy is inspired by the central theme of his vision for governance, the prosperity of India, with first fruits going to those who need it most. His economic diplomacy, therefore, concentrates on jobs, the best solution to poverty. Every horizon is a defined objective rather than merely a nebulous destination. Separate initiatives are linked by logic. Conflict threatens the promise of prosperity; hence his sustained efforts at conflict resolution where tensions are the highest, in a fraught neighbourhood. Our improving relations with Bangladesh are concrete evidence. But the rise of terrorism, which seeks to wreck stability, destabilise the polity and turn frontiers into killing fields, has become an existential threat. Prime Minister Modi has articulated the nature of this challenge with force and clarity, describing terrorism as the gravest threat since the Second World War. Dismissing the false comfort of illusion, he has rejected any hint of compromise, stressing that there is no good terrorist or bad terrorist: it is undiluted evil. Nations, or governments, who believe that there is some dividend in hypocrisy are part of the problem instead of partners in the solution. In Prime Minister Modi’s world view there is no space for compromise with evil. This thoughtful and thought-provoking compendium offers excellent insights into the dynamic foreign policy of a leader who has taken a commanding place in the vanguard of this search for peace and prosperity.

—MJ Akbar (Minister of State for External Affairs, GOI)

The world perceives India very differently than it did two years ago. It is very definitely a country on the move. Changes underway, reflected in the Modi Government’s flagship programmes, are assessed positively. So too are its ideas and initiatives, be they on solar energy, humanitarian assistance, diaspora linkages or yoga. Our diplomacy is increasingly constructive and outcome-oriented, seeking to position India in a higher international orbit. Many orthodoxies are being challenged in the pursuit of new opportunities. All of this mandates an energetic debate that extends beyond the traditional framework. This volume is a step in that direction and should be welcomed accordingly.

—S Jaishankar (Foreign Secretary, GOI)

The Modi Doctrine is well-timed as an evaluation of India’s foreign policy under the Modi government as it comes on the eve of completing its halfway mark in its first term of office. The volume has been well-conceptualised and provides a comprehensive overview of India’s foreign policy under the Modi government as seen by Indian and foreign analysts both in country-specific and thematic terms. It is a must-read as it graphically captures the new energy, confidence and direction infused by Prime Minister Modi into Indian foreign policy.

—Satish Chandra (Former Deputy National Security Advisor, India)

In seeking peace, confronting the sources of cross-border terrorism in Pakistan or liberating the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation from Islamabad’s veto, Narendra Modi has been bolder than his recent predecessors. His short-notice landing in Lahore at the end of 2015, the raids across the Line of Control targeting the terror launch pads in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir at the end of September 2016, and the promotion of subregional cooperation in South Asia since the end of 2014 are testimony to this. They are also part of Modi’s broader strategy to restore India’s natural primacy in the subcontinent by resolving conflicts and expanding areas of cooperation where possible and confronting the negative forces where necessary.

—C Raja Mohan (Director, Carnegie India, Delhi)

The book, in an inimitable way, presents a broad foreign policy canvas of the Modi government. A powerful but extremely balanced description of Prime Minister Modi’s bold multidimensional foreign policy moves, it is a satisfying collection for both general readers and specialists.

—Rajiv Nayan (Senior Research Analyst, IDSA)

THE

MODI

DOCTRINE

CONTENTS

Foreword—Arun Jaitley

Modi’s Foreign Policy as Problem Solving

MODI: A GLOBAL LEADER BUT INDIA FIRST

Chapter 1

The Modi Phenomenon: Rebooting Indian Foreign Policy

Cleo Paskal

Chapter 2

Harnessing Multilateral Orders to India’s Interests and Principles

Ramesh Thakur

Chapter 3

Diaspora Factor in Modi’s Diplomacy

Sreeram Chaulia

RAJMANDALA OF BILATERAL AND REGIONAL CONNECT

Chapter 4

Reinventing Strategic Restraint: Modi’s Pakistan Shift

Ashok Malik

Chapter 5

Steady Progress on India–US Security Ties under Modi Government

Lisa Curtis

Chapter 6

India’s Land Boundary Agreement with Bangladesh: Its Importance and Implications

Tariq A Karim

Chapter 7

Narendra Modi: The Leader with Clear Vision

Karan Bilimoria

Chapter 8

India and Sri Lanka: Right Leadership at the Right Time

Asanga Abeyagoonasekera

Chapter 9

Modi’s Modernising Effect: A Perspective from Nepal

Hari Bansh Jha

Chapter 10

India–Afghanistan Relations: A Review

Shakti Sinha

Chapter 11

Framework for Sustainable Relationship between Bangladesh and India

Shahab Khan

Chapter 12

India–Japan Relations on a New High

Takenori Horimoto

Chapter 13

India–Germany Relationship: Strengthening the Strategic Partnership

Christian Wagner and Gaurav Sharma

Chapter 14

Modi in Central Asia: Widening Strategic Perimeter

P Stobdan

Chapter 15

India–Mongolia: Spiritual Neighbours and Strategic Partners Gonchig Ganbold

Thematically Tied to the World

Chapter 16

Enhancing Economic and Strategic Space: Key Goals of Prime Minister Modi’s Diplomacy

Mukul Asher

Chapter 17

Cleaning Rivers in India: Experiences from Bavaria/Germany

Martin Grambow, Uttam Kumar Sinha and Hans-Dietrich Uhl

Chapter 18

Energy Security: A Priority Concern for the Modi Government 163

Virendra Gupta

Chapter 19

Modi’s Economic Diplomacy: Turning Conventions on their Head

Manoj Ladwa

Chapter 20

Defence Diplomacy: Good, and Needs to Get Better

Nitin A Gokhale

Chapter 21

India’s NSG Membership Quest: Completely Justified

Satish Chandra

Chapter 22

Modi and India’s Civilisational Quest

Anirban Ganguly

Index

Contributors

FOREWORD

For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, foreign policy has been high priority. In a fast-changing multipolar world to which India is intricately connected, no Indian leader has shown such remarkable understanding to simplify an otherwise complex situation. By surveying, responding and where possible, moulding the international environment, Prime Minister Modi is finding answers to the questions of India’s national interests.

The emphasis is clearly to be seen. In the past two years, India’s proactive and pragmatic diplomatic initiatives have led to high-level engagement with unprecedented number of countries. India’s global footprint is scripting the narrative about India from one of a flailing power to that of a resurgent global force; from being a balancer to becoming a leader, from following rules to making rules and setting agendas. This is nothing but transformational with tangible outcomes.

Diplomacy has got a go-getting edge. The best way to show this is through facts. Foreign investment is up 40 per cent. India jumped sixteen spots on the World Economic Forum’s global competitive index and was ninth in UNCTAD investment attractiveness ranking. Indeed, India is now viewed as the most attractive investment destination. Investment and infrastructure are drivers of India’s diplomacy for development. Some noted outcomes have been the India–USA Infrastructure Investment Fund with a target of US$75 billion; the French Agency for Development (AFD) providing two billion Euros credit line; India–UK Partnership Fund under National Infrastructure Investment Fund (NIIF) and India–UAE Infrastructure Fund for rapid expansion of next generation infrastructure.

Connectivity has been another defining aspect of Prime Minister Modi’s foreign policy. As a natural leader reaching out and connecting to his domestic constituency, likewise, and astutely, he readily connects to other foreign leaders whether from small or big nations. There is a return value in his outreach as can be seen in fast-tracking the transport sector with collaboration and joint ventures. Japan is to build India’s first bullet train and high-speed rail links; the government-backed rupee bond is to be launched in London for railway infrastructure; France and Germany are to fund Metro projects and build electric locomotive plant; partnership with the USA is underway to make transportation secure and efficient and with China plans are afoot for a railway university.

The ‘Neighbourhood First’ approach has revitalised South Asia as never before. Prime Minister Modi’s leadership has tried to transcend the gloomy atmosphere of mistrust and hostility through bold re-engagement. By signing the Land Boundary Agreement with Bangladesh, welcoming the democratic transformation in Myanmar, nurturing an all-weather friendship with Bhutan and launching India’s largest disaster relief operation abroad in Nepal, the image of India as a positive regional power has taken a new frame, reaffirming the leitmotif Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, or ‘Together with all, Progress for all’.

Even small-island nations like Maldives and Mauritius become inclusive to this philosophy. The comprehensive nature of cooperation with the South Asian states is a dominant theme not a domineering one. Continued commitment towards reconstruction and development in Afghanistan, pushing the frontiers of ties with Sri Lanka by granting US$318 million LOC for railway and currency swap agreement of US$1.5 billion to help stabilise the Sri Lankan rupee define regional policies that are enduring and that bind India to the region.

At the global level, Prime Minister Modi has been successful in raising India’s economic profile and calling on the diasporic community to actively participate in the reform drive for a stronger India, which the IMF MD Christine Lagarde described as a ‘bright spot’ on an otherwise ‘cloudy global horizon’. India’s development agenda is closely aligned to the Sustainable Development Goals; advocacy of climate justice, elimination of poverty and harmony with nature. The grand narrative of Prime Minister Modi is actually simply a potent reminder that democracy remains the pathway to prosperity.

The two years of the NDA government’s foreign policy have been one of problem-solving and solution-driven in which engagement with the world is paramount to the development path that India has taken. India’s transformation is aspirational, people-centric, non-elitist and even subaltern.

The chapters in this volume bring out the different facets of Prime Minister Modi’s foreign policy since May 2014. The striking feature of the volume is the acclaimed profile of its contributors many of whom are foreign nationals or Indians settled abroad. They are not only experienced experts but express their views with candidness and without fear and favour. Some, among these, have actually been involved in strategising the Prime Minister’s global outreach while some are practitioners of diplomacy. The Editors have emphasised on objective assessments and the challenges that the future presents. And rightly so, for it is important to get the pulse of the world on many of the initiatives undertaken by the government. Yet the authors remain much in unison and emphatically underline that with Modi at the helm of affairs, India is set to leverage its role and make itself a ‘diplomatic superpower’.

I commend Dr Syama Prasad Mookerjee Research Foundation (SPMRF), its director Dr Anirban Ganguly and his able co-editors, Dr Vijay Chauthaiwale and Dr Uttam Kumar Sinha, for having conceived and executed this project in such a short time frame. This volume shall, I am sure, become essential reading for all those who wish to make an assessment or undertake a study of the foreign policy vision of the BJP-led NDA government under Prime Minister Modi.

—Arun Jaitley

Minister of Finance and Corporate Affairs Government of India

MODI’S FOREIGN POLICY AS

PROBLEM SOLVING

It is commonly assumed that leaders find foreign affairs easy picking, proclaiming to set the world right, if not on fire and grandiosely advancing the country’s image. For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, however, global understanding is not about ridiculous assertions or claims, but a firm belief that in an age of a glocalised, polycentric world, which is uniquely tied with prosperity and vulnerability, foreign policy is closer home than ever before. In fact in many ways it begins at home. As the world’s fastest growing free market and the most populous democracy, India’s footprint on international affairs is a reality, as much as the truth that poverty is India’s biggest challenge.

What foremost underlines the Modi government’s foreign policy orientation, specifically in terms of its distinction with the past, is the ability to make it less argumentative and more problem-solving by scanning a range of alternatives and taking optimising decisions. And therefore, what makes Modi’s methodology so influential is his reading of the cultural, political and economic structures at play within a global society. There is much more to the Prime Minister’s foreign policy approach than just the ‘charm offensive’ that many seem to have been spellbound about and thus failing to go beyond the theatrics of the visits. The Modi magic or his ice-breaking style or even the freeze selfie moments are structurally conditioned wherein the strategic, economic and demographic forces frame the context of his decisions—a natural internationalist, advocating greater political and economic cooperation.

During his visit to Malaysia in November 2015, Prime Minister Modi unveiled a twelve-feet bronze statue of Swami Vivekananda, saying, ‘Swami was given by God to India, I will give his statue to Malaysia’. But there is something beyond this symbolic act. Like Swami Vivekananda, a vishwatma—the spirit of the universe—Modi is viewing the world in terms of possibilities rather than risks. There is courage and conviction to determine the international order and positively shape relationships whether it is in the immediate neighbourhood or with the wider world. Seeking resources, technology and good practices from international partners is a spirit that drives the Prime Minister. The context cannot be missed. In his foreign policy orientation, Modi first seeks to understand and then be understood.

Modi’s approach to global affairs is based on linking India’s foreign policy to domestic transformation. While on the one hand, his policies seek to attract foreign capital, technology and open foreign markets for Indian products, on the other, the policies are geared towards regional stability, peace and prosperity. He has earnestly pursued the NDA government’s flagship programmes like Make in India, Digital India, Smart Cities, Clean Ganga, Swachh Bharat, Skill India and Startup India. There is a development story in Modi’s foreign policy.

One of Modi’s remarkable accomplishments has been to energise and enthuse the Indian diaspora. The diaspora has emerged as a significant factor in domestic politics of several countries including the USA and the UK. The other notable achievement has been an emphasis towards the ‘Neighbourhood First’ and ‘Act East’ policies.

The ‘Neighbourhood First’ has been Modi’s most significant initiative. Relations with Bangladesh have witnessed a decisive upswing with ratification by India of the Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) which had been pending since 1974. Ties with Sri Lanka have moved positively with the change in domestic leadership there. Relations with Nepal and Maldives have not been easy but Modi’s policies continue to be engaging and forward looking.

Prime Minister Modi’s vision and approach to foreign policy never cease to amaze. Even the most studied critics will agree that he has demonstrated a consistent, deft and sophisticated functioning. The personal rapport established with Barack Obama and with other world leaders like Shinzo Abe and Angela Merkel have significantly enhanced India’s profile and given it a confidence never seen before.

The interest that Modi has generated in China acquires even greater significance. For one, China and India are rivals, who simultaneously cooperate, contest and compete. Despite China being economically stronger, it is to Modi’s credit that he has positioned India at a comparable level with China. Interestingly, if there is any country that Modi has a good account and understanding of, it is China. As the chief minister of Gujarat he visited China four times. This prior experience and knowledge has enabled Modi to economically and culturally connect with China in the wider framework of peace and development. At another level, addressing China’s strategic rise is an equally important dimension of Modi’s foreign policy so that India retains its influence and equally cushions itself from not becoming marginalised in the larger US–China contest.

And finally, Modi’s visit to Iran, coinciding with the two years of the NDA government, embodies careful assessment and complexity management of the changing context in which Iran is now a stable and resourceful country. A non-ideological, pro-development vision to link India to Iran and then to Central Asia and Europe through ‘connectivity trade, investment and energy partnership’ are purposive engagements that values Iran as it integrates with the world market.

India’s participation in the development of the Chabahar Port and a trilateral pact to build a land transit-and-trade corridor through Afghanistan are stepping stones for bigger future involvement. As the Prime Minister of India, Modi has the right head on his shoulder, and can plan and take decisions.

Two years at the helm of affairs is a decent length of time for some earnest stock-taking especially as foreign policy has been a high priority area for the Indian government. Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his time in office has set a scorching pace of global engagement. His first visit was in June 2014 to Bhutan and thereafter he undertook visits to forty countries in five continents till April 2016.

To date in 2016, in the two years of his time thus far, Modi’s policies have enhanced India’s engagement globally with new thought and ideas and a believable wisdom for a stable and peaceful world.

Modi’s world vision has been complimented by the External Affairs Ministry and Sushma Swaraj, as the first Indian woman foreign minister, has ably consolidated the Prime Minister’s overseas engagement. Her political experience and dynamism has kept steady continuity in India’s foreign policy and her natural ability to engage with the public has helped India to negotiate testing and emotional times, for example, the evacuation of nearly 4000 stranded Indians from war-torn Yemen in April 2015. But quite remarkable has been her humility in acknowledging the hard work of the previous UPA government when the amendment bill regarding the Land Boundary Agreement with Bangladesh was passed unanimously in the Lok Sabha in May 2015. The dynamism of both the Prime Minister and the External Affairs Minister brings in a new approach to foreign policy, one that is coordinated and consultative and equally empathetic.

The volume is divided into three sections and has contribution from twenty-three authors of which fifteen are international. The first section titled ‘Modi a Global Leader but India First’ captures the Prime Minister’s nuanced approach, his leadership and understanding of world affairs. The second section ‘Rajmandala of Bilateral and Regional Connect’ has country-specific essays that build on the bilateral momentum and examine the future prospects. The third section ‘Thematically Tied to the World’ contextualises and examines India’s pattern of engagement through the lens of development imperatives. The themes become the categories for analysis of Modi’s foreign policy.

MODI: A GLOBAL LEADER BUT INDIA FIRST

The role of a global leader is extremely challenging and complex. A typical global leader has more work to do, more people to meet, has less direct authority and has to grapple with continuous flow of information. A striking aspect is that global leaders do not require prior international experience to be one. Foresight defines a leader—a clear vision for the country and its people and the ability to build a consensus to achieve the vision. The authors in this section delve into some of Modi’s characteristics, conscience and charisma in the global context and evaluate its impact.

Cleo Paskal observes in her write-up, the foreign policy implementation as the ‘layered, reasoned vision of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’ but also feels that there is much work still to be done. In a rational assessment, Paskal informs that while Modi indeed focused on the regional countries and the major powers, he also identified and consolidated overlooked opportunities. Citing some of the Prime Minister’s visits, for example to United Arab Emirates (UAE), Seychelles, Mongolia and Fiji, she writes that apart from the value of the visits themselves, at a very pragmatic level these trips have given fillip to India experts in the receiving countries, easing the way for future Indian engagement.

Ramesh Thakur views Modi as both the most internationalist Prime Minister since Jawaharlal Nehru and also the most clear-headed in articulating India’s interests. He then highlights why multilateralism matters and how India will have to demonstrate ideational as well as political leadership in multilateral forums. Thakur further argues that India will need to exercise creative diplomacy in order to combine the protection of national interests with the representation of a developing country and Asian interests and feels that Modi is suitably placed to execute it.

Sreeram Chaulia in his essay examines the ‘three Ds’—democracy, demography-demand and diaspora—as the fulcrum of Modi’s foreign policy. Prime Minister Modi, to the author, represents a radically different India in which the diaspora or the ‘extended family abroad’ is a critical driver that requires to be harnessed. Modi is a true messenger, according to the author, spreading, what he describes, ‘India’s ethos of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam (the world is one family), Vivekananda’s gospel of spiritual oneness of humankind, Mahatma Gandhi’s non-violence and ecological conservation and the Indian model of live and let live multicultural coexistence.’ Chaulia very succinctly explains that there is a ‘re-imagination of who is Indian’ and this is becoming a force to reckon before the world.

RAJMANDALA OF BILATERAL AND REGIONAL CONNECT

The major thrust of Modi’s bilateral engagements has been to draw investment and technology by resuscitating stalled ties and removing hesitation and strategic confusion in dealing with strategically important countries and regions. Modi’s robust engagements have led to promising investments but more will still be required. In the neighbourhood, which is India’s existential space, Modi’s mission has been to remove the perception of India being domineering, which creates fear and notions of interference and resentment. For that, he has approached bilateral relations in the region with a framework of connectivity and regional infrastructure development for a better quality of life to the people and a chance to prosper. Sensitivity, mutual trust and confidence and seeking solutions to outstanding issues define his bilateral engagement. In this section, foreign experts, along with some Indian analysts, express their views on aspects of the outcomes of Modi’s foreign policy.

Pakistan continues to throw challenges at Modi’s leadership despite his reach-out to Islamabad on more than one occasion. Balancing restraint with assertiveness is being seen as a remarkable feature of Prime Minister’s foreign policy in view of the bold yet controlled action—post-Uri terrorist attacks— taken with decisiveness and an unprecedented political, diplomatic and military coordination. Yet and impressively so, the Prime Minister continues to reshape the public discourse on India-Pakistan relations and redefine the terms of victory. At the BJP national council meeting in Kozhikode in Kerala on 24 September 2016, while addressing a public rally, Modi challenged Pakistan to compete with it in a ‘war on illiteracy, poverty and unemployment’.

By choosing to work diplomatically towards ensuring Pakistan’s isolation and giving the army the tactical and operational autonomy to bust the terror camps across the LoC, speaks of a leadership that is measured and in control and has the courage to respond. Importantly and very clearly, past precedents are not binding on Modi’s government while responding to terror attacks from Pakistan.

The