FUNDAMENTALS OF DEMOGRAPHY

Kayugira

DEDICATIONS

To my parents Isaack Omambia and Annah Omambia for eternally believing in me.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

With uttermost veneration I give thanks to Yahweh God. Filled with typical modesty and much gratitude. Any attempt at any level was not satisfactorily completed without the support of my parents, wife, children and friends. I would like to express my in depth thanks to Hannington B.M. Kiwinga for helping me amass different demographic ideas and evolve them from just mere simple ideas to now a didactic book. Finally I would also like to thank the publishers and editorial team for assisting me to finalize the book within the limited time frame.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

DEDICATIONS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

LIST OF TABLES

LIST OF FIGURES

LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

CHAPTER ONE

1.1 Introduction and Concepts of Demography

1.1.1 History

1.1.2 Science of Population

1.2 Describe Formal Demography

1.2.1 Features of Formal Demography

1.3 Describe Measures in Demography

1.4 Importance and Uses of Demographic Data

1.5 Sources of Demographic Data

1.6 Assignment

1.7 Further Readings

CHAPTER TWO

2.1 Population

2.1.1 Population Growth

2.1.2 Population Growth 1950–2050

2.1.3 Theories of Population Growth

2.1.4 Population Growth

2.1.5 The Number of People who have ever Lived on Earth

2.1.6 Doubling

2.1.7 One Billion Increase

2.1.8 Population Growth by World Region

2.1.9 Population Growth by Country

2.1.10 Most Populous Countries in the World

2.1.11 Population Growth Rate by Country and Region

2.1.12. The Future of Global Population Growth

2.2 Current World Population (Worldometer, 2020)

2.2.1 World Population Milestones

2.2.2 World Population Density (People/km²)

2.2.3 World Population by Religion

2.2.4 Religious Groups Percentage of the Global Population

2.2.5 Kenya’s Population

2.2.6 Enumeration

2.2.7 Census Indicators at a Glance, 2019

2.2.8 Basic equation

2.3 Exponential Growth

2.3.1 Exponential Growth and Decay

2.3.2 Calculating Growth Rates

2.4 Doubling Time

2.4.1 Key Properties of Doubling Time

2.5 Assignments

2.6 Further Readings

CHAPTER THREE

3.1 Population Control Policies

3.1.1 Sex Composition

3.1.2 Determinants of Sex Composition

3.1.3 Calculation of Sex Ratio

3.1.4 Age Composition

3.1.5 Determinants of Age Composition

3.1.6 Calculation of Age Dependency Ratio

3.2 Type of Population used in Evaluating the Coverage and Content Errors

3.2.1 Methods of Evaluation

3.2.2 Age Shifting

3.2.3 Age Heaping

3.2.4 Whipple's Index

3.2.5 Steps in Conducting a Whipple’s Index

3.3 Interpretation of Whipple’s Index

3.4 Demographic Change

3.4.1 Policy Responses to Demographic Change

3.5 Population Size and Distribution

3.5.1 Population Ratios

3.5.2 Ranges for Sex Ratios

3.6 Population Pyramid

3.7 The Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

3.8 Effects on Age Structure

3.8.1 Limitations of the Demographic Transition Model

3.9 Summary

3.9.1 Stage 1: High Fluctuating

3.9.2 Stage 2: Early Expanding

3.9.3 Stage 3: Late Expanding

3.9.4 Stage 4: Low Fluctuating

3.9.5 Demographic Transition Model

3.9.6 Model Universally

3.10 Population Momentum

3.11 Replacement Level Fertility

3.12 Net Reproduction Rate

3.13 Assignments

3.14 Further Readings

CHAPTER FOUR

4.1 Fertility

4.2 Measures of Fertility

4.3 Specific Fertility Rates

4.4 Incidence Rate

4.5 Prevalence Rate

4.6 Assignments

4.7 Further Readings

CHAPTER FIVE

5.1 Mortality

5.1.1 Infant Mortality Rate

5.1.2 Maternal Mortality Rate

5.2 Various Measures of Mortality

5.3 Sample Calculation

5.4 Specific Mortality Rates

5.5 Perinatal Mortality Rate (PMR)

5.6 Child Mortality Rate

5.7 Case Fatality Rate

5.8 Maternal Mortality Rate

5.8.1 Factors that affect MMR include

5.9 Historical Background/ Development of Mortality Measures

5.10 Assignments

5.11 Further Readings

CHAPTER SIX

6.1 Standardization of rates in Demography

6.2 Methods of Standardization

6.2.1 Direct Method of Standardization

6.2.2 Indirect Method of Standardization

6.3 Life Tables

6.3.1 Life Table Functions and their Relationships

6.4 Assignments

6.5 Further Readings

CHAPTER SEVEN

7.1 Longevity Blue zones

7.2 Other Traits and Habits Associated With Longevity

7.3 Assignments

7.4 Further Readings

CHAPTER EIGHT

8.1 Life Expectancy

8.2 Assignments

8.3 Further Readings

References 8

LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1 Current world population (Worldometer, 2020)

Table 2.2 World population by year

Table 2.3 Countries by population

Table 2.4 Current yearly growth rate in percentage

Table 2.5 Latest world population forecast (2010-2019)

Table 2.6 World population forecast (2020-2050)

Table 2.7 World population by region

Table 2.8: Religious groups’ percentage of the global population

Table 2.9 Average Annual (Compound) Growth Rates

Table 3.1 Interpretation of whipple’s index

Table 3.2 Ranges for age distribution

Table 3.3 Demographic transition model

Table 4.1 List of people with the most children

Table 4.2 Bangladesh 1974 Births-By-Age of women

Table 4.3 Bangladesh Age specific fertility rate

Table 4.4 Marital age specific Fertility Rate (M.A.S.F.R.)

Table 6.1 Crude mortality data for two hypothetical populations (countries A and B).

Table 6.2 Crude mortality rate between countries

Table 6.3 Methods of Standardization

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1 World population density

Figure 2.2  $100 invested at 7% per year

Figure 2.3  Population grows at 7% per year

Figure 3.1 De facto and the de jure population

Figure 3.2 Population pyramid

Figure 3.3 Basic shapes of population pyramid

Figure 3.4 Expansive population pyramids

Figure 3.5 Constrictive population pyramids

Figure 3.6 Demographic Transition Model

Figure 3.7 Stages of transition

Figure 3.8 Population momentum

Figure 7.1 Blue zones

LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

AAGR      Average Annual Growth Rate

CBR          Crude Birth Rate

CWR    Child Woman Ratio

DTM        Demographic Transition Model

HDI          Human Development Index

HYDE      History Database of the Global Environment

MMR        Maternal Mortality Ratio

TFR    Total Fertility Rate

UNDESA United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs

CHAPTER ONE

1.1 Introduction and Concepts of Demography

Demography is the statistical study of human population. It can be a very general science that can be applied to any kind of dynamic human population, that is, one that changes over time or space. It encompasses the study of the size, structure and distribution of these populations, and spatial and/or temporal changes in them in response to birth, migration, aging and death. Demographic analysis can be applied to whole societies or to groups defined by criteria such as education, nationality, religion and ethnicity. Institutionally, demography is usually considered a field of sociology, though there are a number of independent demography departments.

Formal demography limits its object of study to the measurement of population’s processes, while the broader field of social demography population studies also analyzes the relationships between economic, social, cultural and biological processes influencing a population.

1.1.1 History

Demographic thoughts can be traced back to antiquity, and are present in many civilizations and cultures, like Ancient Greece, Rome, India and China. In ancient Greece, this can be found in the writings of Herodotus, Thucidides, Hippocrates, Epicurus, Protagoras, Polus, Plato and Aristotle. In Rome, writers and philosophers like Cicero, Seneca Pliny the elder, Marcus Aurelius, Epictetus, Cato and Collumella also expressed important ideas on this ground.

In the middle ages, Christian thinkers devoted much time in refuting the Classical ideas on demography. Important contributors to the field were William of Conches Bartholomew of Lucca, William of Auvergne,  William of Pagula, and Ibn Khaldun.

The Natural and Political Observations ... upon the Bills of Mortality (1662) of John Graunt contains a primitive form of life table. Mathematicians, such as Edmond Halley, developed the life table as the basis for life insurance mathematics. Richard Price was credited with the first textbook on life contingencies published in 1771, followed later by Augustus de Morgan, ‘On the Application of Probabilities to Life Contingencies’ (1838).

At the end of the 18th century, Thomas Malthus concluded that, if unchecked, populations would be subject to exponential growth. He feared that population growth would tend to outstrip growth in food production, leading to ever-increasing famine and poverty. He is seen as the intellectual father of ideas of overpopulation and the limits to growth. Later, more sophisticated and realistic models were presented by Benjamin Gompertz and Verhulst.

The period 1860-1910 can be characterized as a period of transition wherein demography emerged from statistics as a separate field of interest. This period included a panoply of international ‘great demographers’ like Adolphe Quételet (1796–1874), William Farr (1807–1883), Louis-Adolphe Bertillon (1821–1883) and his son Jacques (1851–1922), Joseph Körösi (1844–1906), Anders Nicolas Kaier (1838–1919), Richard Böckh (1824–1907), Wilhelm Lexis (1837–1914) and Luigi Bodio (1840–1920) contributed to the development of demography and to the toolkit of methods and techniques of demographic analysis.

Historical analysis has played a central role in the study of population, from Thomas Malthus in the eighteenth century to major twentieth-century demographers such as Ansley Coale and Samuel Preston. The French historian Louis Henry (1911-1991) is widely credited with the development of historical demography as a distinct subfield of demography. In recent years, new research in historical demography has proliferated owing to the development of massive new population data collections, including the Demographic Data Base in Umeå, Sweden, the Historical Sample of the Netherlands, and the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS).

During the period from 500 to 900 CE world population grew slowly but the growth rate accelerated between 900 and 1300 CE when the population doubled. During the 14th century, there was a fall in population associated with the Black Death that spread from Asia to Europe. This was followed by a period of restrained growth until the 18th century when world population entered a period of accelerated growth again. As previously the acceleration was more marked in the European population, due to scientific revolution and resulting inventions lowering the childbirth mortality rate. European population reached a peak growth rate of 10 per thousand per year in the second half of the 19th century.

During the 20th century, the growth rate among the European populations fell and was overtaken by a rapid acceleration in the growth rate in other continents, which reached 21 per thousand per year in the last 50 years of the millennium.