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strt
t sr rt rss t t tts r s r tr
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s

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P t t strt t t t t t P rt s s t
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t ts rs t t r rss t ss rs s
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str

t rt t rst r
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s r t sr rr trs r t str t
r t t t r t t t t rs t ts
t trs s r t strtr ts rts tt
t s t t strtr tt tr rr tt s t
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t strtr tr rt t rr ssrs r t str r tt
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t r

s t ss

t t r rs t r ts rr
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t strtrs st s rt t r s t rst r
t tt s rs t
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t t t rt ts s s srs t s r
t t rrt t t r t s rst
t t s t s tr t r r tt
r ss t t t t t s r t t
s rst t t st st tr r t rst s str t
r t qtts trr r t t srs t ts rt
r s st r str rt r
t r t s sss r t t trrrs
rs t s t rst rss rs tr t r rs t
t r rt
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Ps t r t r t rs r r t
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ts srs r s t sr r s t t s P
t P r rt r t t tr P s r trs
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r r t rtt r r t rt ss
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s s t t r st ts t s tt t s s s
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s t ss

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t
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ts rst ts t t r t st s tr
rt sst t r t r s rst r s s
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t rs t rt P r t P P s rt s
r ts t s rs rs r ts t P s str
t t r rt str s tt r t
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r tt t r t P t P s t t P ss
strt rt s t t s t t t s s t ts
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ts s P tt tr ss s
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t s
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r

tr

Prt strt

ts tr t t rss t ts t t
s r sr r stt rr t ts t strt t rts
rs rst t tr s t t str t
sss rtr ts tr rrss r t st rs t ssss t t
t rss sr r tt rt rs rtr t str
t t ts ss s t tr rst ts rt s t
str t rrt sst t t t rt ssss t
rt rs rtr

sst t

r t s t rts r t t t rss st t
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rst s s t t

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t rts t t r t st rs s s
rtt tr t t t srt s t rs t t r ttrs t t
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strt

t sss trs t srt srtst ss ts

tt s t t s t trt rst
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rs
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s
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s t r t r P s t r s s ts t
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s t t r rr

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t srt t ss s s tt str t r
s rt t srst t sr r rs tr

r t t r
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rrt t r s t st t s st srs t s
t ts s r st ss rst strs t r srs t
t t r srs t rss t tr stt sts t
s s t r sr s r rst t s t r st s
strs sr r s t sr r s t rr t sr t
tt st t s t t t srs
tt r st t s t tt t t s
tt t sr r tt tstrs s rrt t t sr
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t s sr r t r t srs tr s ss t sr
sr t t t rr r t t t strt r tst

tstr Pr Pr r

t t srs r P
rtr stt r ts t s tt sr r st st s
str t ts strs t rr t t t t st
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t t sr r t t rt t
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r Prt r

t r

s t ss

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t s t s s r sst s

r rr rt

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r Prt r r Prt r Prt t r P s
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r s t r t

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rss s s s rtr t t t rt
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s ss

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s rr rtr rs

rt t s

t t ss s ssrtt stt t sst s

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t ts r st

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r Prt r

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t rt rs r rts rs s r t
rtr
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t rsr t r s rsr rt t tr ssts
tt rr st r rs rsr ssts s rt
rs r t t t tt t rt t rst rt t
t r t s t rt t trst ts sr rsr sst rrs
t rt rtr rs rs ssts r ts tt t r tr
rr rt rt rtr r ssts tt s t ts st r
rs ssts trr t t rr tt ts r rt rs ssts
r strt t rt s t r t rrst trt ts st t s
rtt t rst t s rs rtr r t
p
t Prt tr R
p = y1 R
1 + y2 R
2 + y3 R
3 + y4 R
4,
R

t t
4
X

yi = 1,

i=1

i = sst tr.
R

t rtr R p rrsts t rt rtr rt s t t r

t r t qt yi rrsts t t t st t ith
sst s rt t tt stt t ts t strt s t
t sr s st t s st rts tt Ri
rrsts t t rtr r sst s t t srt rtrs srt
rtrs t r t s sr rs t ss t tt rt r
t rt s t

srt trs =
=

rrt Pr Prs Pr
,
Prs Pr

Rik Ri(k1)
,
Ri(k1)

r i s t rtr sst k s t r t sts ts s s tr k t

s (k 1) s t r
t t srt rtrs r sst t rt
sst rtrs s t ts t

t r
rst

s t ss

t rtrs Ri r sst

r t strt rt st q t sst tt t
t t rtr r sst Ri rt r t rtr
rtr r ts rt
p = (0.25)(0.00006199) + (0.25)(0.00166232) + (0.25)(0.00000786) + (0.25)(0.00013466),
R
= 0.00046671,

ss tt tr r tr s r s r s t
strt s s t t t r rtr r r
s rt
= 0.046671%.

r Rp

= (0.00046671) (252),
= 0.1176,

t t t rtr ts rt t st t t rs sst
t ts rt rtr
= 11.76%.

Prt r p2 s p
p2 =

4
4 X
X

yi yj ij ,

i=1 j=1

t t
4
X

yi = 1,

i=1

ii = i2 .

t qt s

p 2 = y12 12 + y22 22 + y32 32 + y42 42 + 2y1 y2 1 2 + 2y1 y3 1 3 + 2y1 y4 1 4

qt yi rrsts t t t st t ith sst s

rt t tt stt i2 s t r t ith sst r t t t
sts N s rt s
+2y2 y3 2 3 + 2y2 y4 2 4 + 2y3 y4 3 4 .

i2 =

N
1 X
i )2 .
(Rik R
N
k=1

t r

s t ss

s i j tt rrsts t r t t ssts t s

i j

N
1 X
i )(Rjk R
j ).
(Rik R
N

k=1

t t r r rt r t t q t rt
s t r t rrs s s t t rs rs t ssts

12
22
32
42

1 2
1 3
1 4
2 3
2 4
3 4

srt

r
r P
r
r
r P
r
r
r P
r P
r

rr r ssts t rt
rr
p 2 = (0.25)2 (0.000344) + (0.25)2 (0.000611) + (0.25)2 (0.000500) + (0.25)2 (0.000527)
+2(0.25)(0.25)(0.000213) + 2(0.25)(0.25)(0.000227) + 2(0.25)(0.25)(0.000270)
+2(0.25)(0.25)(0.000253) + 2(0.25)(0.25)(0.000279) + 2(0.25)(0.25)(0.000299),

= 0.000317.

t t r t t s t s t tr t rs t rt s t
sqrrt t rt r s qt t t rt rs p
q
p2 ,

0.000317,
=

p =

= 0.017791,
= 1.7791%.

r ts ts tt rt strt t q ts
ts r ssts rrs t rt rtr t sst rs

t t r t t s rst t sr t t ts
ts tr r s s r ts t rts r
rtr rtr rs

t r

s t ss

tr r Prt tr s

ts sst t t qts r t rt rtr rt

r t s t rt tr r
p tr r
Prt t tr R

p = R Y,
R

i
R
R

i+1

R = ... ,

RN 1
N
R

yi

i+1

Y = ... .

yN 1
yN

Y rrsts t st rts r N sst rt R s t tr rs t

rtr R r rrs sst ts qt s qt t t

t rtr qt tr rr trr r t s ts r
rr
r t ts t rt r qt s rss tr r
Prt r p2 tr r

p2 = Y QY,

12
21
...

12
22

...
...

1(N 1)
2(N 1)

1N
2N
...

Q=
,

2
(N 1)1 (N 1)2 ...
N 1
(N 1)N
2
N 1
N 2
... N (N 1)
N

yi

y
i+1

Y = ... .

yN 1
yN

tr Q s s t rr tr r t rt r tr
s s str tr tt t r sst i t j s qt t t
r sst j t sst i

ij = ji .

t t tr tt rtr rs t ts t
rt ts tst t ts s t r tr t
t r t t rst

t r

s t ss

r tr t

r Prt r stts tt rt ts rr t s rtr

r rs r trt s rs r trt t rt rtr
r ts st t s rs r r rts rs
sst rtr t r rt trs s rs rtr ts t
rt s t r r tr t rss t ts
s r srts ts st s t st rts
t t s t st rts rt t t st s srt
str srt s str rr st r r rrt
t t rtr t tr r t r ts r t str
s t rr st t rt t t tt t rss t st s
rs t str t st t r r rtr t st t
t r rt s rss rrs rs s str tr s t
r t t st t s t rts t sss r t st r t
t
tst rs s t rr rt ts r
tr str r str rs t t rt ts tt t
s t t s st ts rts strt r r r
trr st t str tst r
t ts s t t s rs s t s r
trs tr s s r r tt t t tr
t r tr s s t r t st t
strts ts s t stt t t rt rtr s strt
s t r t trt rtr st t rt
rrs t st rt r st r t t s t
s s t qrt qt rt r r YT QY s t strt s
ts rt r s qt t s t st rt st q
tt ts r qt str qrt P tst r
r r qt str tst r s
s

F (y),

t t

g(y) = C.

r t r tr t strt t r t
t r

= F (y) [g(y) C].

qt ss t strt rrr t q r t t r
t t r t t t rr t t sttr t ts

t r

s t ss

t t t rt rtts st t q t r ts
t t srs r qts rs st r s rr t
s ts r r s t t r r t ts t t rt s
t tr tt r rs t t rt s
s YT QY,
t t

eT Y = 1.
r

y1
1
12 12 13 14
1
y2
21 22 23 24

Q=
31 32 2 34 , Y = y3 , e = 1 .
3
1
y4
41 42 43 42

s qt rs t r t
= y12 12 + y22 22 + y32 32 + y42 42 + 2y1 y2 1 2 + 2y1 y3 1 3 + 2y1 y4 1 4
+2y2 y3 2 3 + 2y2 y4 2 4 + 2y3 y4 3 4 (y1 + y2 + y3 + y4 1) = 0.

qt t rt rtt t rst t y1 y2 y3 y4 t
r srs r qts

y1

y2

y3

y4

= 2y1 12 + 2y2 1 2 + 2y3 1 3 + 2y4 1 4 = 0,

= 2y1 1 2 + 2y2 22 + 2y3 2 3 + 2y4 2 4 = 0,
= 2y1 1 3 + 2y2 2 3 + 2y3 32 + 2y4 3 4 = 0,

= 2y1 1 4 + 2y2 2 4 + 2y3 3 4 + 2y4 42 = 0,

= y1 y2 y3 y4 + 1 = 0.

s rt rtts r sst r qts qts

s s sst rrtt tr r

212 212 213 214

2
2
21 22 223 224

231 232 232 234

241 242 243 242

1
1
1
1

1 y1
0

1 y2 0

1 y3 = 0 .

1 y4 0

0
1

st s tt tr r t qt s sr t

t r

s t ss

1
0

0
1

2Q
1 Y = 0 ,

1 0
1 1 1 1 0

r Q s t rr tr rr t tr Y s t tr
sst ts t ts srtt sr t rt rtt
s Q Y ssttt t t rss t t s rst
rr t tr t sst ts r ts rs rt t qt s
t s t tr y1 y2 y3 y4 t t qt t r

Ay = B,

r A s N N sqr tr t t y B N t trs t
N t r ssts
r tqs s t s sst ts r ts s ss
t s r rts rs t tr t tr tr tr
r t trs r t r t t tr tr
ts s tr y1 r y4 tr t tr r r r
tr tr r ssttt t tr qts trr tr t
t tr rs t ts s rt t t sts r t
rss t s t qr s tt tr t
rr t r t y t tr sst ts r tr t
st s

y = BA1 ,

r t rs tr A st t rs r trs t t
ts t s t ss r tr s tt
tr str rr t r ts rtr st s
rst t t t tr tts t s t rt rs
tr
sttt t rs t s r r r t ssts s

0.000688
0.000426

A = 0.000454

0.000540
1

0.000426
0.001222
0.000506
0.000558
1

0.000454
0.000506
0.001000
0.000598
1

0.000540
0.000558
0.000598
0.001054
1

1
1

1 ,

1
0

ts tr t tr t srst s t t t
t rs tr A s

t r

s t ss

r srst t t t rst
t t ts tt rt t r r tt s s t
s

2183.767 467.8886
y1
467.8886 1131.419
y

y3 = 721.4066 330.9728

994.4720 332.5580
y4
0.561422 0.169766

0.561422
0.169766

= 0.209427 .

0.059385
0.000586

721.4066
330.9728
1632.440
580.0605
0.209427

994.4720
332.5580
580.0605
1907.091
0.059385

0
0.561422
0
0.169766


0.209427 0 ,

0.059385 0
1
0.000586

tr tt t strt t r rt t
st rst t r t tt stt
t t ts sst ts tr t t rt rtr
t rt rs tt t rrs
p = (0.56)(0.00006199) + (0.17)(0.00166232) + (0.21)(0.00000786) + (0.06)(0.00013466),
R
= 0.000327,

r Rp

= 0.0327%.
= (0.000327) (252),

= 0.0824,

= 8.24%.

t r

s t ss

p 2 = (0.56)2 (0.000344) + (0.17)2 (0.000611) + (0.21)2 (0.000500) + (0.06)2 (0.000527)

+2(0.56)(0.17)(0.000213) + 2(0.56)(0.21)(0.000227) + 2(0.56)(0.06)(0.000270)
+2(0.17)(0.21)(0.000253) + 2(0.17)(0.06)(0.000279) + 2(0.21)(0.06)(0.000299),
p

= 0.000293,

0.000293,
=
= 0.017113,
= 1.7113%.

t r

s t ss

r t

st t rt r t s r ssts t rr s
tst tqs st rs t r ssts t r
t ts r tst s rt strs r
r r rt tr str t t t tt rs
ts tr r s t rs st rqr t s
rst t t t rs tr t ts t
s rss tt t s s t t tr rt
t t ts t tst rss rr s tt str
s s t t s r ts st rst s t
ts t t s r
r s r tst t tt ss t tt rt t r
rt t t t r t st t
strts tst tqs t s t rt t r t t t
t t s s r sr rs t r sst r
r t rtr t r sst rs tt tr t r
t s t s ts

rt t

YT QY,

y1 + y2 + y3 + y4 = 1.

t t

t t qt strt t r

A 1 = 0,
T

1
y1
1
y2

A=
1 = y3 ,
1

y4

rrt ts t rtt r

+ AY
1 = 0,
AY
T

1
y1
= y2 ,
A = 1 Y
y3
1

A = 1 Y = y4 .

s sr tr rrr ts t Y t st s
s A
= A1 (1 AY).

t r

s t ss

t t t tst r rs qt strt
tr t st r trs t rst rt

Y = v + M Y,

1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
,

v=
0 M = 0
0
1
1 1 1
1

y1

y2
.
Y=

y3
1 y1 y2 y3

s rss s r t r r r t r r t y4
rrst trs y1 y2 y3 Y ssttt t t
t t t
YT QY

T
y1

y2

y3
1 y 1 y2 y3

0.000344
0.000213

0.000227
0.000270

0.000213
0.000611
0.000253
0.000279

0.000227
0.000253
0.000500
0.000299

0.000270

0.000279

0.000299
0.000527

y1

y2
,

y3
1 y 1 y2 y 3

= 0.000344y12 + 0.000611y22 + 0.000500y32 + 0.000527(1 y1 y2 y3 )2

+0.000426y1 y2 + 0.000454y1 y3 + 0.000540y1 (1 y1 y2 y3 )

+0.000506y2 y3 + 0.000558y2 (1 y1 y2 y3 ) + 0.000598y3 (1 y1 y2 y3 ).

t tr t rt rtts ts t t rst t t
tr rs t q t r
(YT QY)
y1
(YT QY)
y2
(YT QY)
y3

= 0.000662y1 + 0.000382y2 + 0.000370y3 0.000514 = 0,

= 0.000382y1 + 0.001160y2 + 0.000404y3 0.000496 = 0,

= 0.000370y1 + 0.000404y2 + 0.000858y3 0.000456 = 0,

ts t rsts s t sst r qts sst s tr qts

tr s

0.000662 0.000382 0.000370

y1
0.000514
0.000382 0.001160 0.000404 y2 = 0.000496 .
y3
0.000370 0.000404 0.000858
0.000456

t t rs t 3 3 tr rrr s s t s
ts sst r qts sr t t t s t r tr

t r

s t ss

0.000662 0.000382 0.000370

2183.133 467.8886 721.4066
0.000382 0.001160 0.000404 = 467.886
1091.694 330.9728 ,
0.000370 0.000404 0.000858
721.4066 330.9728 1632.440

2183.133 467.8886 721.4066 0.000514
y1
y2 = 467.886
1091.694 330.9728 0.000496 ,
721.4066 330.9728 1632.440
0.000456
y3

0.561422

=
0.169766 ,
0.209427
y4 = 1 y 1 y 2 y 3 ,

= 1 0.561422 0.169766 0.209427,

= 0.059385.

r tt

rs tst rss ssts tr rts t trt t s t

strts s r tr s ts r t t t t tst
r tr rts r t r tr r rs
t s r t tst r r t s
s YT QY,
t t

eT Y = 1.

t ts t tr Y Q e t rrs t t r
r tr Q rs strt s t r r rs ts
strt t s s ts r t r r
Ptrs
PtrstrsP

st ss t rs t strt t rr tr
rst t t srt rtrs t r t s st rs
rst t rr trs ssts srt t s s
ts P P r t t r
r rs r rr ts tr
t Q t r t sst ts Y Y s
tr rs ts t tr ssts ts s st s t
st t s t t strt eT Y = 0 r e s tr rs
ts t 1 s t q t s r t ss r t
rt ts s s t Y e t
t Q Y e t t t r t q
t rt s s t s tr tt

t r

s t ss

trss P ts t sss t

YT QY

st s t t t strt t rt r r s

Pssstts
Pssttsrrsstts

r r t tst r
t t r s r rr t
rt sts rqr t ts t r s r t r st r t
r rst t t s r

r r rtrs
s s r sts t tr rts t t t ts st
t trt t s t strts trt s t t t

t r

s t ss

t t t t tt s t ts ts t t t
YT QY s trr tr t rt tt t t
t t t t tr trs tr r sr r
r rtr ts s r t s r s ts
st r
t rt t tst rss s t t r s ts tt
r t trt rss t r rs t sst ts Y s
ts st s t s tt r t rss s
t t sst ts t tt tr t trt rss s t
rt t rss s t stt t strts rt t t tst r
ts s strt eT Y = 1 s t strt
= 1 tr t t strts st t sr tt t tt sst ts s
t tt

r r t tr rtrs
r s s t t t t s stt tr str
rs s t s r ts r r srts
t t t str t ts t st t ts t sr
tt ts s t t t rs t s
Prss t tt r t trt s rsts s t t
t t t t rt r s t ts
st r s tt t sst ts t ts r
s r t s tr t r t r t r tr t s s r
s st r t t sst ts t t r st ts tt r
t s t rt t s s st r t
r ss stt t tr Q ts t r st rs
rs r ts r stt Q t s st t

t r

s t ss

t rts tr s r t t t ts

r r st
r t ts s ts ss t t ts
rts r rtr t rs r t st rs s tr s t
stt s rs rtr t t t s r t rss t
ts

t r

s t ss

str Prr ss

rt ts t st st s t rtr rs s
rtr t r t tr rs rs t ts stt s t t
t rss t t str t strt rt t t r
r tr ts r s t r t t t t rss ts
s t ts t r s t stt t rs
rtr t s t rt r ts trt r stt ts rtr
t strt t rts sst rt rs rtrs t r t
rs rs st t r t rss
t t t t r t r t s r tt rs
st ts t t t r sts t t rst t str t t
st t rr t s t rr ts st t t r
sr t t r strt t t rss t r s ts
t s t rr t st ts st st t sr t rs sr tt
s rs rtr r t rss r t
rr t st s rs srt rtr t r r t
r t t r t t t r st ts r
t st t ssts sst ts srt rtrs s s t
rt tt r rts t ts t r s t s t
rs rtr r ts r t r r tr t tr t
rss s s s tr t t t str s t t
rss t rr r t r tr t

r strt t rtr rt t t t
t t t sts tr str rr t s t st t
rr st t ssts ts t s ts s sts
t strt t rts t sst t rtr
rs s s r tr r r t t rt
strt rt sst srt rtr t r t t tr
t t t t t s r rt strt ts
rtr t t rst rt s s rt s t t t
t str t st trr t strt rt tt ssts
t r t s rt s rs srt rtr
t ts tt t rt strt t t r t
s t rs rs r t rts t t st rt
t t r str sr t t rt tt ts rr t tr

t r

s t ss

s t t r tr r ts t ts t rts
s t rsts s
t

str
Prr
Prr
Prr
Prr
Prr
Prr
Prr
Prr
Prr
Prr

r

r

r

r

r

r

p
r t tr 252R

s p

r t rtr rs sst t t rt
Ptt t t rtr rs ts rts r t ss r
t tts tt r t r t t t rss

r r s t rs rtr t t rt r t
r ss tt t t rt s t st r st rt
ts t rt rtr t t ts r r s
s t t strt t t rss stt t t r
sr s r r t t r r r t r
s tt t t rt s r rs t rt rtr r
rt ts s s t s tt t t s r
rr st t ts r t rt rtr r st stt
r t st t rs t stt

t r

s t ss

t t t r t rtr r ts r r ss tt tr s
st rs rt rs s s s t rs tt s t rt
r ts r ss tt ts stts t t t s
r r rsts s tt ts t s tr sr r
t t tr str s t ssr t
tr srts t rt ts t t tt t r st s
str t r rsts r t rrt sst s t
ts rt

t r
rst

s t ss

rst r sr t rs s ss t r str t t
rst t r s rs t rs tt s q s t rt t t
rt s s s rt rs tt t rtr str
tt t s rs tt t s str r rst t rt s
tt rs t t rr t ts s rs rst s t strt rt
srts tt r t st rrt t sr tt ssts r t
t s st ts
t rt t r t sst s r rst t
t rt s trt ts tr s rssstr rst
s t ssts t t rs t s str r r rs rt ss
stt rs rtr r r rt t rs r r tr
t rss t ts s tt t t s s st t
tr sr r r t t t tr t trt
s s s t rss tt t t str s s t
ts r tt ts t t str rt t rr s t
t rtr s ts s tt t r t s s t
t rs ss s tr srs rs sr s r t st rs
rr t ts t t t rrt t t ss r

rrt

t t rrt t ssts s t s Prss rtt

rrt t sts rrr t s P r s t t ts
t s
i,j

q

i2

ij

q

j2

,

r i2 j2 r t srt rtrs r r ssts i j ij s t r t

ssts i j t t r r r t t s s stt rr
t st P s s s t t sr t r t t
rs t t t ts tt t t
rs ssss str t rrt tt t t st
s trst t s str st rrt t tt
t t rs r t t tr t s
rrt t tt tr s r t ts t rs
s ts t tr stt rtr t t sr rrt
t t ssts rr st tr s t rrt sst i j s t
s s t rrt j i rst t rrt s t r t
ssts r trr r t s tt t rrt
st ts s r t r tr tr

t r

s t ss
1
..
..
0.464342
1
..

0.633761 0.607348
1
0.546488 0.457363 0.582891

..
..
.
..
1

r t tr r s tt t t rs rr
st rrt t t s rsts r tt ts t
rr rt str rrt trr ss tr srt rtrs ttr
sr rr t rs ts rtr rt rt t st
rrt ssts s t sst tt t rrt t t t t
t str sst t s rst s rs rss s

t t Prt

s rs t tt s s s trt t rr r r rt
r str t s s sst s tr ss t
s strt t r tr r rtr rt tt t
s t s s tt t s r rr s t r
s t s t stt rts t r t t t
s rst st t st rt strs t ts ts rss strs
t t t sts st t srt rs ts r t r t rs
r s t r r s t t
rs t rt sst r s st rs
r P tr t ts st ssts r r s t sr
rs rs t ss t t t tr s r t st
rs r ts rs t t srt rtrs t t sst t
t rs rts strt t t t ts sst t ssss t
rs rtr r t s tr rst t
str st trt ts r
t tr sr r r r str

r t t rt s rst rsr t sr tt t s
t t rrt t t t ssts ts s tr tt s
rs r tts rs rtr st rss r
t t rrt tr s

1
..
..
..
0.464342
1
..
..

0.607348
1
..
0.633761

0.546488
0.457363
0.582891
1
0.066898 0.047519 0.038951 0.018398

..
..

.. .

..
1

tr r ss t rrt t t t ssts
r r t s tt st rst rsr

t r

s t ss

t strt r rs t r str t
rss r strt t r rs rt t t
t ssts s t s s r t s r r t ts
Q 5 5 tr Y t tr rrst
t st rts s strt st s sr tt t s t st
rts tt t strt t rs rt t t s ts t str
rr st s r s st rsts r r t rt rtr
rs r ts r
t

str
Prr
Prr
Prr
Prr
Prr
Prr
Prr
Prr
Prr
Prr

r

r

r

r

r

r

p
r t tr 252R

s p

r t rtr rs sst t t rs rt
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