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Election Night Guide

2012 RPR Senate Ratings
23 Democrats; 10 Republicans
Pure Toss-Up
WI Open (Kohl, D) VA Open (Webb, D) Tester (D-MT)

2012 RPR House Ratings
Pure Toss-Up (18)
IL 17 (Schilling, R) KY 6 (Chandler, D)* MI 1 (Benishek, R)* MN 8 (Cravaack, R) NC 7 (McIntyre, D) NH 1 (Guinta, R) NH 2 (Bass, R) NV 4 (Open; new) PA 12 (Critz, D)

Toss-Up/Tilt Republican
AZ Open (Kyl, R) Heller (R-NV) ND Open (Conrad, D)*

2012 RPR Gubernatorial Ratings Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat
Brown (R-MA) 8 Democrats; 3 Republicans IN Open (Lugar, R)#

Lean Republican

CT Open (Lieberman, I/D)# NH Open (Lynch, D) NM Open (Bingaman, D)* Toss-Up/Tilt GOP (13) WA Open (Gregoire, D) Brown (D-OH) CA 10 (Denham, R) CA 36 (Bono Mack, R) Republican Favored Democrat Favored CO 6 (Coffman, R)* NE Open (Nelson, D) Republican Casey (D-PA) Toss-Up/Tilt Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat FL 18 (West, R) HI Open (Akaka, D) IA 3 (Boswell, D/Latham, R) McCaskill (D-MO) IA 4 Lean Republican ME Open (Snowe, R)^# Lean Democrat(King, R) NY 18 (Hayworth, R) IN Open (Daniels, R) Nelson (D-FL)# Nixon (D-MO) 19 (Gibson, R) NY Safe Republican (Perdue, D) Safe Democrat NY NC Open Tomblin (D-WV) 27 (Hochul, D) Barrasso (R-WY) Cantwell (D-WA) OH 16 (Renacci, R/Sutton, D)* Corker (R-TN) Cardin (D-MD) TN 4 (DesJarlais, R)# TX 23 Republican FavoredCarper (D-DE) Democrat Favored(Canseco, R) Hatch (R-UT) UT 4 (Matheson, D)* Wicker (R-MS) Feinstein (D-CA) TX Open (Hutchison, R) Gillibrand (D-NY) Lean Safe Republican Klobuchar (D-MN) Safe Democrat Republican (9) FL 10 (Webster, R) Takeovers in Italics Manchin (D-WV) Dalrymple (R-ND) Markell (D-DE) MA 6 (Tierney, D) # moved benefiting Democrats Menendez (D-NJ) Herbert (R-UT) Shumlin (D-VT) 11 (Vacant; McCotter, R) MI * moved benefiting Republicans Sanders (I/D-VT) MN 6 (Bachmann, R) ^Takeovers in italics # to caucus Independent expected moved benefiting Democrats(D-MI) Stabenow * moved benefiting Republicans NY 11 (Grimm, R) with Democrats. Whitehouse (D-RI) NV 3 (Heck, R)* OH 6 (Johnson, R) TX 14 (Open; Paul, R)# WI 7 (Duffy, R) MT Open (Schweitzer, D)

Lean Democrat Pure Toss-Up

AZ 1 (Open; new)* CA 7 (Lungren, R) CA 26 (Open; new) CA 52 (Bilbray, R) CT 5 (Open; Murphy, D) IL 10 (Dold, R)* IL 11 (Biggert, R) IL 12 (Open; Costello, D) IL 13 (Open; Johnson, R)

Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat (9)
AZ 2 (Barber, D)* AZ 9 (Open; new) CA 9 (McNerney, D) CA 24 (Capps, D)* GA 12 (Barrow, D) NY 1 (Bishop, D)* NY 21 (Owens, D) NY 24 (Buerkle, R) RI 1 (Cicilline, D)

CA 41 (Open; new)# CO 7 (Perlmutter, D)* FL 26 (Rivera, R) WA 1 (Open; new)

Lean Democrat (4)

2012 RPR Gubernatorial Ratings
8 Democrats; 3 Republicans
Pure Toss-Up
NH Open (Lynch, D)

Republican Favored (9)
CO 3 (Tipton, R)* FL 2 (Southerland, R) FL 16 (Buchanan, R) IN 8 (Bucshon, R) NJ 3 (Runyan, R) NC 8 (Kissell, D) NC 11 (Open; Shuler, D) PA 8 (Fitzpatrick, R) VA 2 (Rigell, R)

Toss-Up/Tilt Republican Lean Republican

MT Open (Schweitzer, D)

Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat
WA Open (Gregoire, D)

CA 47 (Open; new) FL 22 (Open; new) IA 2 (Loebsack, D) IL 8 (Walsh, R) MD 6 (Bartlett, R) NY 25 (Slaughter, D)

Democrat Favored (6)

Lean Democrat Democrat Favored
Nixon (D-MO)# Tomblin (D-WV)

Republican Favored february 10, 2012
IN Open (Daniels, R) NC Open (Perdue, D)*

A Currently Competitive: electioNs Dropped NoNpArtisAN ANAlysis of AmericAN politics ANd68 from Ratings


Safe Republican
Dalrymple (R-ND) Herbert (R-UT)

Safe Democrat
Markell (D-DE) Shumlin (D-VT)

Total Safe GOP: 205 Total Safe Dem:162

Needed for Majority: 218

Takeovers in italics # moved benefiting Democrats * moved benefiting Republicans

# moved benefiting Democrats

* moved benefiting Republicans


November 2, 2012


march 9, 2012 A NoNpArtisAN ANAlysis of AmericAN politics ANd electioNs