MAT 301 ASSIGNMENT, Submitted to Mr.

Ahzar Iqbal

PRACTICAL STATISTICS

APPLICATION OF STATISTICS IN ENTERTAINMENT INDUSTRY

Quantative Methods & Forecasting | Bilal Hamid / BBE-537

TABLE OF CONTENTS

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TOPICS

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Letter of Acknowledgement The Importance of Statistics in Management of Business Introduction of Report Use of Statistics in Entertainment Industry The Internet Movie Database (IMDb) Rating System How are these ratings calculated?
MEAN & MEDIAN: in User Rating System: STARmeter & MOVIEmeter References

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Letter of Acknowledgement
08-Nov-2012

Dear Readers: We would like to take this opportunity to thank Mr. Azhar Iqbal, our respected teacher, who made this report possible by providing his unconditional guidance and cooperation throughout the semester by sharing his expertise, knowledge and experiences, without which this report would never have been possible.

Sincerely,

Bilal Hamid

THE IMPORTANCE OF STATISTICS IN MANAGEMENT OF BUSINESS: In today's world we are faced with situations everyday where statistics can be applied. Statistics can be used to determine the potential outcome of thousands of things where the human mind alone wouldn't be able to. Statistics benefits all of us because we are able to predict the future based on data we have previously gathered. Being able to predict the future not only changes our lifestyle but also helps us be more efficient and effective. Statistics are used all over the world. They can be applied in almost any situation and can always help. They are used in explaining group behavior of organisms, marketing research, and the list goes on and on. Statistics affects our daily life every day. Researchers use statistics to advertise their products which in turn we the consumer purchase. The price of the products we buy are determined upon statistics which show the demand for the product at that point in time and because of these statistics, we the consumers pay a certain amount of money to buy the product. In conclusion, statistics are a major staple of our world today. They are used in practically any situation and help improve our overall lifestyle. Statistics change the way we think about tomorrow and the way we live today and without them. A few examples follow of how Statistical methods can be applied in any business management area where data exists or is generated. Finance Stock market analysts use statistical methods to predict share price movements; financial analysts use statistical findings to guide their investment decisions in bonds, cash, equities, property, etc. At a company level, statistics is used to assess the viability of different investment projects, to project cash flows, and to analyze patterns of payment by debtors. Marketing Market research uses statistical methods to sample and analyze a wide range of consumer behavior and purchasing patterns. Market segmentation studies use statistical techniques to identify viable market segments, while advertising research makes use of statistics to determine media effectiveness.

Human Resources Statistics is used to analyze human resources issues, such as training effectiveness, patterns of absenteeism and employee turnover, compensation planning and manpower planning. Surveys of employee attitudes to employment issues use similar statistical methods to those in market research. Operations/Logistics Production managers rely heavily on statistical quality control methods to monitor both product and production processes for quality. In the area of production planning, managers use statistical forecasts of future demand to determine machine and labor utilization over the planning period. Economics The performance of the economy is studied and analyzed; using statistical methods by economists and government organizations such as the Reserve Bank conducts a wide range of statistical studies mostly through sampling - to measure the performance of the economy in terms of, inter alia, unemployment, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI, Inflation indicator). Economic data is also used as the basis for economic forecasting of such measures as interest rates and foreign reserves. Economists use economic data to build statistical models - called econometrics - of the economy, mainly to prepare forecasts of future economic activity and to inform government policy making.

INTRODUCTION OF REPORT: Probably the most practical use of statistics is in Summarizing large amounts of Information with the basic measures. One is the measure of central tendency, or average, which is the mean, median, and mode. The importance of theses measure presents in this report by defining how these statistical tools helps out to extract the meaningful information from the large database. This Report has set the scene for the use of statistical analysis as a support tool in management decision making. It introduced the importance of statistical analysis in the field of business with illustrative applications particularly in Entertainment Industry, where it defines how statistics is playing an important role in the industry where it is helping to feed the future endeavors, as well as shaping up the outlook of the industry. This report explore the example of statistical analysis of the worlds largest online movie database www.imdb.com, and explains how this website has successfully implemented the world largest users rating system of movies with the help of statistics, which is enormously helping out the decision making of future movie productions as well as providing in-depth analysis to the industry and the users itself.

USE OF STATISTICS IN ENTERTAINMENT INDUSTRY With astonishing speed, entertainment and media have evolved into a highly dynamic industry, interconnected by the global digital platform in a manner that few people could even have conceived of 20 years ago. From media printed on paper, music on CDs, movies rented on DVD at the local Blockbuster, and TV networks that forced the viewer to be in front of the screen at a given hour in order to watch a given show, the industry has changed dramatically into an always on, easy to time-shift, always with you on mobile platforms, customizable stream of news, entertainment, movies and music. The implications of these changes are staggering. The businesses models upon which most entertainment companies have traditionally run are becoming obsolete. Entertainment companies are forced to evolve in order to deal with new technologies and new demands from consumers. The Implication of Rating System and linking it with Statistical Tools: A rating is the evaluation or assessment of something, in terms of quality (as with a critic rating a novel), quantity (as with an athlete being rated by his or her statistics), or some combination of both. To gather the assessment and opinion of users and viewers, Rating System is playing an important role. Some rating techniques in use are as follows: Ratings/Rating Points/Ratings Share: The rating of a medium is its audience size expressed as a percentage of the measured market, where one rating point is equivalent 10% of the base. Ratings are often referred to as "percent coverage." A television show with a 22% share has 22 points or 22% of the total TV audience within its market. Gross Rating Points (GKFs): Measures (he audience share of a television program's audience delivery. GRPs are the sum of individual ratings for all programs in a particular time slot Sec "Ratings/Ratings Points/Ratings Share." Parental Guidelines: A rating system established by the television industry in 1997, which gives parents information about the content and age-appropriateness of television programming.

Nielsen ratings technique Nielsen ratings are the audience measurement systems developed by the Nielsen Company, in an effort to determine the audience size and composition Statistical techniques play a vita! role in helping advertises determine how many viewers watch the shows they sponsor. Although several companies sample television viewers to determine what shows they watch, the best known is the A. C. Kiclsen firm. The Nielsen ratings are based on a random sample of approximately 5,000 of 115 million households in the United States with at least one television (in 2010). A meter attached to the televisions in the selected households keeps track of when the televisions are turned on and what channels they are tuned to. The data art sent to the Nielsen's computer every night, from which Nielsen computes the rating and sponsors can determine the number of viewers and the potential value of any commercials. Demographics Nielsen Media Research also provides statistics on specific demographics as advertising rates are influenced by such factors as age, gender, race, economic class, and area. Younger viewers are considered more attractive for many products, whereas in some cases older and wealthier audiences are desired, or female audiences are desired over males.

Top-rated programs This table lists all the TV shows with the highest average household Nielsen rating for each television season, based on the 18-49 demographics. The program with the all-time highest average rating is in bold text Sports programs have italicized rating numbers Two or more programs tie for highest average Nielsen rating in the same season Season Program Network Rating 15.1 13.7 14.4 12.9

20082009 American Idol Wednesday 20092010 American Idol Tuesday 20102011 American Idol Wednesday 20112012 NBC Sunday Night Football

NBC

The Internet Movie Database (IMDb) is an online database of information related to films, television programs, actors, production crew personnel, video games and fictional characters featured in visual entertainment media. It is one of the most popular online entertainment destinations, with over 100 million unique users each month and a solid and rapidly growing mobile presence. IMDb was launched on October 17, 1990, and in 1998 was acquired by Amazon.com. As of October 12, 2012, IMDb had 2,425,902 titles and 5,315,404 personalities in its database. On the web The database had been expanded to include additional categories of filmmakers and other demographic material, as well as trivia, biographies, and plot summaries; the movie ratings had been properly integrated with the list data; and a centralized email interface for querying the database had been created by Alan Jay. Later in the year it moved onto the World Wide Web (a network in its infancy at that time) under the name of Cardiff Internet Movie Database. User ratings of films As one adjunct to data, the IMDb offers a rating scale that allows users to rate films on a scale of one to ten. Filters and weights IMDb indicates that submitted ratings are filtered and weighted in various ways in order to produce a weighted mean that is displayed for each film, series, and so on. It states that filters are used to avoid ballot stuffing; the method is not described in detail to avoid attempts to circumvent it. In fact, it sometimes produces an extreme difference between the weighted average and the arithmetic mean. For example, Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience is considered to be the worst film with a weighted average of 1.3 as of March 2009, but has a rather ordinary arithmetic mean of 4.1. Ranking (IMDb Top 250) The IMDb Top 250 is intended to be a listing of the top 'rated' 250 films, based on ratings by the registered users of the website using the methods described. Only non-documentary theatrical releases running at least forty-five minutes with over 25,000 ratings are considered; all other products are ineligible. Also, the 'top 250' rating is based on only the ratings of "regular voters". The exact number of votes a registered user would have to make to be considered to be a user

who votes regularly has been kept secret. IMDb has stated that to maintain the effectiveness of the top 250 list they "deliberately do not disclose the criteria used for a person to be counted as a regular voter". In addition to other weightings, the top 250 films are also based on a weighted rating formula referred to in actuarial science as a credibility formula. This label arises because a statistic is taken to be more credible the greater the number of individual pieces of information; in this case from eligible users who submit ratings. IMDb uses the following formula to calculate the weighted rating:

Where: -

W = Weighted Rating R= average for the movie as a number from 0 to 10 (mean) = (Rating) v= number of votes for the movie = (votes) m= minimum votes required to be listed in the Top 250 (currently 25,000) c= the mean vote across the whole report (currently 7.1)
The W in this formula is equivalent to a Bayesian posterior mean The IMDb top 250 list comprises a wide range of films, including major releases, cult films, independent films, critically acclaimed films, silent films and non-English language films. The User Ranking represents what people are interested in, based not on small statistical samplings, but on the actual behavior of millions of IMDb users.

(Bayesian statistics: - Bayesian statistics is a

subset of the field of statistics in which the evidence about the true state of the world is expressed in terms of degrees of belief or, more specifically, Bayesian probabilities. Such an interpretation is only one of a number of interpretations of probability and there are many other statistical techniques that are not based on "degrees of belief".

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How are these ratings calculated? IMDb Pro uses proprietary algorithms that take into account several measures of popularity for people and titles. The primary measure is who and what people are looking at on the public IMDb.com website. Other factors include Box office receipts and user quality votes on a scale of 1-10.

Top 20 of the 250 Rank 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. The Godfather The Godfather: Part Two Pulp Fiction The Good, the Bad and the Ugly 12 Angry Men (1957 film) Schindler's List The Dark Knight The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King Fight Club Star Wars Episode V: The Empire Strikes Back One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest Inception Goodfellas Star Wars Episode IV: A New Hope Seven Samurai The Matrix Forrest Gump City of God Film The Shawshank Redemption Year 1994 1972 1974 1994 1966 1957 1993 2008 2003 1999 1980 1975 2010 1990 1977 1954 1999 1994 2002

The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring 2001

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MEAN & MEDIAN:

IN USER RATING SYSTEM: How User Rating System of IMDB Engaging Statistical Tools:

USER RATINGS FOR SKYFALL The Following specific collected statistical research data is highly marketable to the industry, it helps setting the future trends of movies according to their viewership.

Budget: $150,000,000 (estimated) Opening Weekend: 2,963,464 (Netherlands) (5 November 2012) (211 Screens) Admissions: 270,765 (Norway) (1 November 2012) 167,919 (Norway) (28 October 2012) Production Dates: January 2011 - October 2012 Filming Dates: November 2011 - May 2012

Weighted Average Ratings: IMDb publishes weighted vote averages rather than raw data averages. Various filters are applied to the raw data in order to eliminate and reduce attempts at 'vote stuffing' by individuals more interested in changing the current rating of a movie than giving their true opinion of it. The exact methods we use will not be disclosed. This should ensure that the policy remains effective. The result is a more accurate vote average. 59,502 IMDb users have given a weighted average vote of 8.1 / 10

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Votes Percentage Rating 14711 24.7%10 14966 25.2%9 14946 25.1%8 8452 14.2%7 3156 5.3%6 1316 2.2%5 544 0.9%4 368 0.6%3 238 0.4%2 805 1.4%1 Arithmetic mean = 8.2. Median = 8

Demographic breakdowns Votes Males 34857 Females 4732 Aged under 18 1740 Males under 18 1388 Females under 18 352 Aged 18-29 26232 Males Aged 18-29 23090 Females Aged 18-29 3142 Aged 30-44 10014 Males Aged 30-44 9040 Females Aged 30-44 974 Aged 45+ 1395 Males Aged 45+ 1207 Females Aged 45+ 188 IMDb staff 8 Top 1000 voters 101 US users 1611 Non-US users 37978 IMDb users 59502

Average 8.0 8.2 8.7 8.8 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.2 7.8 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.8 7.5 8.9 7.4 8.1 8.1 8.1

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(Aged under 18) 1740 Aged under 18 have given a weighted average vote of 8.7 / 10 Demographic breakdowns are shown below. Votes Percentage Rating 634 36.4%10 535 30.7% 9 374 21.5% 8 122 7.0% 7 36 2.1% 6 14 0.8% 5 2 0.1% 4 7 0.4% 3 1 0.1% 2 15 0.9% 1 Arithmetic mean = 8.8. Median = 9

(Males under 18) 1388 Males under 18 have given a weighted average vote of 8.8 / 10 Demographic breakdowns are shown below. Votes Percentage Rating 506 36.5%10 422 30.4% 9 298 21.5% 8 104 7.5% 7 28 2.0% 6 13 0.9% 5 1 0.1% 4 4 0.3% 3 1 0.1% 2 11 0.8% 1 Arithmetic mean = 8.8. Median = 9

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(Females under 18) 352 Females under 18 have given a weighted average vote of 8.2 / 10 Demographic breakdowns are shown below. Votes Percentage Rating 128 36.4%10 113 32.1% 9 76 21.6% 8 18 5.1% 7 8 2.3% 6 1 0.3% 5 1 0.3% 4 3 0.9% 3 0 2 4 1.1% 1 Arithmetic mean = 8.8. Median = 9

(US Viewers) 1611 US users have given a weighted average vote of 8.1 / 10 Demographic breakdowns are shown below. Votes Percentage Rating 628 39.0%10 296 18.4% 9 312 19.4% 8 181 11.2% 7 65 4.0% 6 31 1.9% 5 18 1.1% 4 14 0.9% 3 5 0.3% 2 61 3.8% 1 Arithmetic mean = 8.3. Median = 9

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(Non-US Viewers) 37978 Non-US users have given a weighted average vote of 8.1 / 10 Demographic breakdowns are shown below. Votes Percentage Rating 7257 19.1% 10 9561 25.2% 9 10657 28.1%8 6219 16.4% 7 2306 6.1% 6 856 2.3% 5 351 0.9% 4 227 0.6% 3 137 0.4% 2 407 1.1% 1 Arithmetic mean = 8.1. Median = 8

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STARmeter & MOVIEmeter The Ratings further used in sellable market features such as STARmeter & MOVIEmeter, which are powerful market research tools developed by IMDb to give industry professionals insight into the popularity of film and television productions and the people who make them. IMDb Database Statistics IMDb Database Statistics Titles: 2,345,968 (Year Range: 1880 - 2019) People: 4,919,189 (Credits: 47,551,056) 1,416,619 TV episode 279,523 249,913 75,270 68,732 65,998 49,964 44,862 21,714 19,229 11,889 9,400 8,931 8,660 5,795 feature short video TV series TV movie documentary short documentary TV documentary video short video game TV series documentary video documentary video documentary short TV mini-series # People # Credits Category 1,288,266 9,254,392 Actor 764,661 5,699,709 Actress 676,889 3,948,191 Miscellaneous Crew 479,368 3,639,486 Producer 652,040 3,297,639 Self 372,714 2,560,097 Writer 329,449 2,397,900 Camera and Electrical Department

187,885 2,107,573 Sound Department 278,874 1,583,992 Director 208,837 1,392,095 Art Department 182,949 1,000,796 Editor 87,830 98,967 159,168 87,206 92,329 837,102 Make-Up Department 832,802 Music Department 832,665 Cinematographer 828,895 Animation Department 806,016 Editorial Department

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Further statistics about titles 2,107,885 with genre information 591,010 532,833 335,648 249,533 198,924 190,204 131,895 130,909 118,674 108,842 105,984 105,148 98,133 91,949 90,669 75,568 68,018 63,683 61,956 56,719 44,574 41,588 31,883 27,121 25,186 22,740 17,675 Drama Comedy Short Documentary Family Talk-Show Animation Romance News Crime Action Music Reality-TV Adventure Game-Show Thriller Mystery Fantasy Sci-Fi Adult Sport Horror History Biography Western Musical War Further statistics about people: 464,367 with AKA names 194,705 with trivia 148,683 with headshots 134,365 with height measurements 131,065 with real names 130,761 with agent details 75,809 with biographies 37,862 with article details 21,098 with quotes 20,632 with interview details 9,739 2,215 with trademarks with salary information

Further statistics about people: 464,367 with AKA names 194,705 with trivia 148,683 with headshots 134,365 with height measurements 131,065 with real names 130,761 with agent details 75,809 with biographies 37,862 with article details 21,098 with quotes 20,632 with interview details 9,739 2,215 with trademarks with salary information

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Media Statistics > Films produced (most recent) by country Rank #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 # 10 # 11 # 12 # 13 # 14 # 15 # 16 # 17 # 18 # 19 # 20 # 21 # 22 # 23 # 24 # 24 Countries India: United States: Japan: China: France: Italy: Spain: United Kingdom: Germany: Russia: Bangladesh: Korea, South: Brazil: Argentina: Canada: Hong Kong: Mexico: Philippines: Thailand: Switzerland: Sweden: Turkey: Denmark: Pakistan: Egypt: Amount 946 611 310 212 203 134 133 132 121 120 90 82 81 78 69 64 54 53 46 44 40 27 26 25 25

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References:

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