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11-EE-57

Pak Stu.

Assign # 01

Significance of Water Conflict Between India And Pakistan In Global Perspective Of Climate Changes
Conflict over water has been a tendency of human behavior throughout history though it does not tend to fit the traditional mold of full-scale wars fought purely over water. Particularly since the 20th century, water has been a significant feature of the various conflicts rather than their sole purpose. Water conflicts extend back to thousands of years but this issue has been given more importance in recent years because of two major factors. Firstly, it is often mentioned in the media that the war of the next century will be fought over water for national sovereignty and security. Secondly the current water scarcity especially in the arid and semi-arid regions, due to the global climate change and fast growing population. History:The water dispute between India and Pakistan is a long running dispute and is worsening with each passing day. Its origin lies in the creation of Pakistan and India in 1947 after the partition of the Indian subcontinent. This division led India to hold a part of the Kashmir valley, a source of six main rivers irrigating the crops of the largest province. Origin of Dispute:Water conflicts over the distribution of Indus basin dates back to the 19th century but at that time these were intra-national conflicts between the provinces of Indian sub-continent, which were supposed to be resolved by the British India. The British India was able to resolve the first major dispute in 1935 through arbitration .When the demand for irrigation water increased over the next few years, new water related dispute emerged which was resolved again in 1942.With the partition of united India, the Indus basin was also divided between India and Pakistan in 1947, what left the control of Pakistans irrigation water in the hands of India, geographically. Therefore, water conflicts between the two nations started soon after independence in 1948, when India claimed sovereign rights over the waters passing through its territory and diverted these waters away from Pakistan. This illegitimate control of rivers threatened war when India refused Pakistans proposal of neutral arbitration to settle down the conflict. Later on, the World Bank offered its neutral services to resolve the conflict and both India and Pakistan agreed. The proposal of joint use and development of the Indus basin as a single water resource was refused in 1952 over the concern of national sovereignty by both, what lead to the division of the Indus and its tributaries. According to this proposal, India was offered three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej), while Pakistan was offered three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab). India was also supposed to provide monetary funds to construct canals and storage dams to replace Pakistans irrigation supplies from the eastern rivers to western rivers. However, India refused to pay for the construction of storage dams, which was then settled through external finance with the help of the World Bank. Since Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) signed In Sep 1960, many controversies have arisen over the design and construction of different projects on both sides of the basin, some of which have been resolved and others are yet to be resolved (Barrett, 1994). Dispute in Recent Past:From December 2001 to June 2002, India was vocally considering pulling out of the treaty as one of the steps of hitting back at Pakistan for its alleged support of terrorist outfits targeting India, and in turn Pakistan has stated that it would be prepared to use nuclear weapons over a water crisis. A senior Pakistani diplomat, among other regional experts, confirms, Water has become the core issue between India and Pakistan.

11-EE-57

Pak Stu.

Assign # 01

Present Scenario:In February 2010 both countries started the dialogue process again and the foreign secretaries of the two countries met in New Delhi but the dialogue ended on a bitter note. Pakistan was adamant to discuss the water issue while India was stuck on discussing terrorism. At the SAARC Summit in Thimphu, the prime ministers of both countries promised to continue dialogue and as a result the foreign ministers of both countries are scheduled to meet in Pakistan. As the two countries are going to engage in dialogue on umpteen issues then they should also include the issue of water because it is going to be another future source of tension between these two countries. If needed, a few amendments to the treaty can be made but to revive or scrap the whole treaty will be a blunder. As mature nation-states both of them have to understand that the need is to resolve the contending issues and establish peace between them rather than add more problems in the already existing long list of disputes. Type Of Environmental Problem Caused By This Conflict:Climate Change: Increased Temperatures, Decreased Precipitation, Glacial Melt.As the effects of climate change become more pronounced, there will be two distinct effects on the region. 1. The first of these will be an increase in the frequency and power of monsoon storms, brought on by rising sea temperatures. 2. The second effect will be an increase in the melting of the Himalayan glacier. Both of these effects will increase as climate changes effects increase in scope and severity, therefore they are depicted in the diagram as positive feedback. An increase in the strength of monsoons in the region will likely lead to an increase in flooding, while, conversely, an increase in Himalyan glacial melt will lead to a decline in the flow of the Indus River, the headwaters of which originate from the Himalays. Thus these stages in the diagram are depicted as positive and negative feedbacks, respectively.

11-EE-57

Pak Stu.

Assign # 01

References: http://www.feem-web.it/ess/ess12/files/papers/hayat.pdf http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010%5C05%5C31%5Cstory_31-52010_pg3_4 http://www1.american.edu/ted/ICE/indus.html http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/key-issues/thematic/climate-changeand-conflict.aspx