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Special Report on Castor Seeds

October 16, 2012

Castor
Vinod Maloo Vinod.maloo@emkayglobal.com +91 22 66242404 Prerna Sharma Prerna.sharma@emkayglobal.com +91 22 66121377

NCDEXCastor Seed Daily Chart- (December)

(Rs/Qunital)

NCDEX Castor Seed prices gave breakout from Reverse Head and Shoulder pattern, which confirms truncation of immediate downturn or possibly a reverse of trend. Right shoulder is also small which is also indicating strength in the up move. Prices are also showing negative diversion. Castor seed prices made a new low at 3351 (Close 3404) from its previous low of 3359(close 3498), while at the same time RSI made higher bottom. This also indicate immediate price rise. MACD is also widening up, showing upside momentum. Castor seed prices consolidated between 3350 to3840 since 21st of September. This time prices gave breakout above 3840 and closed, which confirms breakout from Reverse Head and Shoulder pattern. Prices are now expected to target 161.8% Fibonacci retracement of the consolidation at 4125 and 261.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 4600. Prices should not close below 3400 on daily basis to maintain the view.

Strategy --- Buy NCDEX Castor Seed December between 3800-3850 for target of 4125, 4250 and 4600 with stop loss of 3400(daily close).

Emkay Commotrade Limited

16 October 2012

Fundamental Outlook: We expect Castor seed to move up in near 1-2 months with a dip.

Supporting facts: India is the largest producer of Castor seed accounting for more than 80% of the worlds production followed by China & Brazil. Gujarat is the top producing state sharing 75% of Indias share.

Acreage: The total area sown under Castor seed is 11.8 Lakh Ha, lower by 11.8% than last years same period. (Source: Solvent Extractor Association, India). Production: For 2012-13, it is expected that production will be lesser by 15-20% than 2011-12 years production of 16.2 MMT. Export: India is the largest producer and exporter of castor seed and its oil, meal. According to the latest data from SEA, Indias total castormeal exports during April-September were reported at 2.14 lakh Tonnes, up 39 per cent from the last year in the same period. The export of castor oil for the period between April to Sept12 is 2.45 Lakh Tonnes, higher by 4,000 MT for the same period of last year.

Emkay Commotrade Limited

16 October 2012

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