Multiple Regression Analysis

----------------------------------------------------------------------------Dependent variable: GDP

----------------------------------------------------------------------------Standard
Parameter

Estimate

Error

Statistic

P-Value

----------------------------------------------------------------------------CONSTANT

-4.74463

2.2528

-2.1061

0.0524

9.30805

0.0000

-0.926028

0.3691

exports

0.204919

0.0220153

inflation

-0.272275

0.294025

interest rate

0.23284

0.235635

0.988137

0.3388

investment

-1.08887

1.22601

-0.888146

0.3885

tariff

1.73643

1.00269

1.73178

0.1038

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of Variance
----------------------------------------------------------------------------Source

Sum of Squares

Df Mean Square F-Ratio

P-Value

----------------------------------------------------------------------------Model

77.6765

15.5353

Residual

10.7433

15

0.716222

21.69

0.0000

----------------------------------------------------------------------------Total (Corr.)

88.4198

R-squared = 87.8496 percent

20

R-squared (adjusted for d.f.) = 83.7995 percent

Standard Error of Est. = 0.846299
Mean absolute error = 0.534081
Durbin-Watson statistic = 2.17578

The StatAdvisor
--------------The output shows the results of fitting a multiple linear
regression model to describe the relationship between GDP and 5
independent variables. The equation of the fitted model is

GDP = -4.74463 + 0.204919*exports - 0.272275*inflation +

0.23284*interest rate - 1.08887*investment + 1.73643*tariff

Since the P-value in the ANOVA table is less than 0.01, there is a
statistically significant relationship between the variables at the
99% confidence level.

The R-Squared statistic indicates that the model as fitted

explains 87.8496% of the variability in GDP. The adjusted R-squared
statistic, which is more suitable for comparing models with different
numbers of independent variables, is 83.7995%. The standard error of
the estimate shows the standard deviation of the residuals to be

0.846299. This value can be used to construct prediction limits for

new observations by selecting the Reports option from the text menu.
The mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.534081 is the average value of the
residuals. The Durbin-Watson (DW) statistic tests the residuals to
determine if there is any significant correlation based on the order
in which they occur in your data file. Since the DW value is greater
than 1.4, there is probably not any serious autocorrelation in the
residuals.

In determining whether the model can be simplified, notice that the

highest P-value on the independent variables is 0.3885, belonging to
investment. Since the P-value is greater or equal to 0.10, that term
is not statistically significant at the 90% or higher confidence
level. Consequently, you should consider removing investment from the
model.