Meghan Walton MATHEMATICS UNIT PLANNER Topic: Probability Focus: Experimental and Theoretical Probabilities Connections: Content strands:

Number & Algebra, Statistics & Probability Sub-strands: Fractions & Decimals, Chance, Data Representation & Interpretation Proficiency strands: Understanding, Fluency, Problem Solving, Reasoning Integration with other Domains: ICT, English and Interpersonal Learning. Prior Knowledge: Students have a comprehensive understanding of Number, particularly; Fractions, Decimals and Percentages. Students have completed experiments and recorded data using frequency tables to find probabilities, while developing a rich Chance language as described by Smith and Taylor (1998, p. 403). Students have participated in predicting, identifying, assessing and describing probability during earlier conceptual understandings as suggested by AusVELS (VCAA, n.d.). Plan learning sequences and units which are consistent with curriculum statements Vocabulary Predicting and describing outcomes Identifying and ordering chance events Assessing variation in experimental results Year: 6 Key Mathematical Understandings being developed: This Learning Sequence aims to develop student abilities when describing probabilities in terms of using fractions, decimals and percentages (Victorian Curriculum and Assessment Authority [VCAA], n.d.). Lessons allow opportunities to conduct chance experiments with both small and large numbers of trials enabling students to compare observed frequencies [...] with expected frequencies (VCAA, n.d.). Overall, lessons will focus on experimental probability and theoretical probability discussed by Aspinwall and Tarr (2002) and Barnes (1998). Early Conceptual Understandings Learnt (VCAA, n.d.):

Meghan Walton Exploring the effect of one outcome on another Using fractions to describe Resources: Interactive Whiteboard, bags of m&ms, coins, Math Journals, dice, Checklists, Trouble, Computers (Internet and Excel), Paper, Pens, Pencils, Self Assessment Sheets and an Anecdotal Notebook.

Learning Experiences: These lessons were created in order to give students fun learning experiences in the mathematics classroom. Utilising Van de Walle, Karp and BayWilliams (2010), the New Zealand Ministry of Education (2010), Utah State University (2010), Gallego, Saldamando, Tapia-Beltrn, Williams and Hoopingarner (2009), Placement Experience and my own ideas these lessons aim to develop mathematical understanding in terms of probability through experimenting and exploration. The first lesson begins with an activity using m&ms in order to excite the students and allow recall when struggling with probability concepts including; experimenting, theoretical probability and exploring vocabulary. The lessons that flow from this aim to develop student understandings in terms of theoretical and experimental probabilities, ways to record data and finding outcomes. Class discussion is used in order to provide time for clarification and reflection. Teaching and Learning strategies:
Analysing Checking Co-operating Considering options Designing Direct Teaching Discussion Elaborating Explaining Hypothesising Inferring Interactive Teaching Interpreting Justifying Listening Locating information Making choices Note taking Observing Organising Peer Partner Learning Performing Planning Predicting Presenting Providing feedback Questioning Reading Reflecting Reporting Responding Restating Revising Seeing patterns Self-assessing Sharing ideas Summarising Synthesising Testing Think Aloud Visually representing Working independently Working to a timetable

Teaching Strategies have been developed from The State of Queensland (Department of Education, Training and Employment) (2011).

Design lesson and unit plans which integrate a range of activities...

MATHEMATICAL OBJECTIVE TUNING IN INDEPENDENT LEARNING

Use their professional knowledge to establish clear, challenging and achievable learning goals for students as individuals and groups Meghan Walton REFLECTION AND MAKING CONNECTIONS ADAPTATIONS DURING LESSON ASSESSMENT STRATEGIES

Millions of m&ms Students will revisit how to use a frequency chart in order to find experimental probabilities.

Hold up a bag of m&ms. This contains ten red, three orange, two brown, five yellow, six green and four blue m&ms. Lets put them into a frequency chart on the board. How many m&ms are there in my bag?

Supply a bag of m&ms per pair or group of three. Have students tally each colour in their

In groups discuss what was discovered about their bag.

Enabling: If I set up my frequency chart with all the colours in my bag and tally them,

Anecdotal Notes focusing on student comprehension of finding probability through a frequency chart.

Students come together

how might I find the probability? How do we make percentages and decimals when we know the fraction?

bag, using a frequency and, co-operating, put chart. together class results in a frequency chart.

Collect work samples in order to assess student

(Adapted from Van de Walle et al. (2010, p. 459 - 460), while drawing on my own ideas).

What is the probability of picking a green m&m in your bag? What is the probability of choosing a primary coloured m&m?

Extending: Make your own bag of m&ms using counters. Note how many m&ms there are in total and find a range of probabilities.

understandings of probability when using frequency charts.

What percentage of your bag is yellow?

This lesson we have experimented and found the probability from our

What is the probability of

What fraction is blue? Write as a decimal

recorded data. This is called experimental

Meghan Walton choosing your favourite? Answer as a fraction, decimal and percentage. Students use their frequency chart to describe probabilities using fractions, decimals and percentages. Heads and Tails Students will demonstrate an understanding of theoretical probability using Tree Diagrams. What are the chances of getting a tail then a head when tossing a (Adapted from Placement Experience and Van de Walle et al. (2010, p. 466)). Lets use a Tree Diagram to find Do the experimental coin? What if you had two coins? Allow students to use coins and experiment, recording their results. Draw a tree diagram to explore. Reflecting on what we did today, and the activity from yesterday is there something you noticed about how we recorded the data? Play a game of What are the chances When we look at the probability of something occurring without experiments, it is called theoretical probability. Enabling: If I have one coin and I toss it twice, how many different combinations of heads and tails could I have? Have students note, in any form they are comfortable with, what combinations are available. What is the probability of Math Journals may also provide evidence of understandings of Tree Diagrams and Work Samples of Tree Diagrams should be collected in order to assess understanding. Student directed discussion. and percentage. probability.

heads and tails with that you will get a row students. of heads throwing more than one coin?

throwing one head and one how they are used. tail?

Meghan Walton out. Explore the Tree Diagram and ask appropriate questions to check comprehension. Where might this information go? They might like to think and explore why their results match? Why do you think they do/dont? Students record a reflection on the lesson and others thoughts in their Math Journal. Extending: Students are given a dice and a coin. What might a tree diagram look like if As a group, construct a Tree Diagram. Checklist of student understanding through student discussion in Math Journals (Appendix A).

experimental results were you throw the dice and the the same/different from their theoretical probability. coin?

Rolling the Dice Students will explore Theoretical Probability and Experimental Probability through Greedy Pig.

Introduce the game Greedy Pig

If you were given a six-sided dice, what is

From the game of Greedy Pig you played and testing your probability theories; reflect on your results

Enabling: For those students who struggle during the tuning in. Create a Focus Group in which the rules are explicitly stated again. Play the game slowly and ensure all students

Anecdotal Notes of student results and discussion during Independent Learning.

explaining the rules the probability that and the objective of you will throw a 1? the game. Play several games. Have students Encourage students explore rolling the dice and record their results.

and discuss in small groups.

Work Samples should reveal understandings of how to record and

(Adapted from Placement

record results of dice rolls.

What do you notice about your results?

understand. Would the game be the same if the

Meghan Walton Experience, New Zealand Ministry of Education (2010) and Van de Walle et al., (2010, p. 461)). Would the game be easier if the number 1 was changed? Why/why not? Have them each student throw a sixsided dice ten times testing their answer. Was your theory correct? Explain. Lets collect the data from everyones results and explore. Put the class results into an Excel Spreadsheet and graph the data. Extending: Change one rule in the game. Why did you choose to change this rule? Play your version and tally the results. Compare your What do you notice about the graph? What does this tell you about the number of trials? Fair or Unfair? Students will demonstrate an understanding of fairness by exploring theoretical Discuss the game of Trouble. Do you think it is harder to What board games do you play? In groups of three, toss two coins. Player A will score when both coins are heads. Player B will score when both coins Is the game fair? Justify. Consider which player won the most games. Why might that player have won? Enabling: Who do you think will win? Why? Do you think tossing the coins ten times will give the same result each Anecdotal Notes of Self Assessment of student learning and understanding (Appendix D). results with the original Greedy Pig game. Is the dice fair? Would more or less rolls give better results? Why? number was five not one? Justify. Send off the students once they understand the game. Checklist of student generated discussion in terms of probability vocabulary (Appendix B). interpret data.

Meghan Walton probability through a range of games. get a six, than a four? Why / Why not? Explain the (Adapted from Van de Walle et al. (2010, p. 461) and Gallego et al. (2009, p. 417)). rules and then play a game of Trouble on the Interactive Whiteboard (Appendix C). Toss the coins ten times. Predict who will win the next game. Is this game fair? Explain. Play with ten tosses, and again with twenty tosses. Throwing and Tossing Students will show an understanding of large scale trials and developing theoretical probabilities. This week we have explored theoretical probability and experimental probability. What have you noticed about the number Explore the number of trials it takes to begin Create your own record sheet. Find the theoretical probability of tossing a coin or throwing a dice. What does the data tell you? If we graph the data, what might you see? Collate the data from the trials in an Excel Spreadsheet. Enabling: For students struggling to design their own recording sheet, draw up a table for students to use if required. The dice throwing table will have the numbers one to six and a line for Anecdotal Notes of the connection between the Work Samples exploring the variety of ways students recorded their data. are tails. Player C will score when one coin is How could you represent a head and one is a tail. your data when playing this game? Discuss in small groups. Extending: Who would win if three or more coins were involved? Students complete a Self- Explain. Can you make the Assessment on their understandings and how they feel about the topics being discussed. Design your own fair game. How could you make it unfair? game fair? game? What about twenty tosses? student vocabulary and discussions had during the Unfair game.

Meghan Walton of times we toss a (Adapted from exploration of the National Library of Virtual Manipulatives (Utah State University, 2010) and Van de Walle et al. (2010, p. 462 463). Do you think that the number of trials is important when looking at experimental and/or theoretical probability? Throw a dice ten times and then one hundred times. Today we are going to explore coins flips and dice rolls. Change the number of tosses and repeat. Reflect on what you learnt this lesson. Explore the National Library of Virtual Manipulatives Coin Toss. What is similar or different about this data? coin or dice? to shape your theoretical probability. Now compare that with the one hundred trial graph. Extending: Allow students to explore the Maths Online Coin Toss Simulator at http://www.mathsonline.co .uk/nonmembers/resource/ prob/coins.html (Actis Ltd, 2000). Students try 1000 trials exploring the graph. Graph the data. tallying, and the coin will have heads and tails with an area for tallying. theoretical probability and the number of trials as suggested by students.

Design lesson and unit plans which integrate a range of activities, resources, and materials to support learning, including the use of ICT and other learning technologies

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Meghan Walton References Actis Ltd. (2000). Heads or Tails Coin Toss. Retrieved September 12, 2012 from http://www.mathsonline.co.uk/nonmembers/resource/prob/coins.html Aspinwall, L., & Tarr, J.E. (2002). The number of trials does matter. Mathematics Teaching in the Middle School, 8(2), 106 108. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org.ezproxy2.acu.edu.au/stable/pdfplus/41181246.pdf?acceptTC=tru e Barnes, M. (1998). Dealing with misconceptions about Probability. Australian Mathematics Teacher, 54(1), 17- 20. Retrieved from http://search.informit.com.au.ezproxy2.acu.edu.au/fullText;dn=436396540861333;res =IELHSS Gallego, C., Saldamando, D., Tapia-Beltrn, G., Williams, K. & Hoopingarner, T.C. (2009).
Probability. Teaching Children Mathematics, 15(7), 416 417.

New Zealand Ministry of Education. (2010). Greedy Pig | NZmaths. Retrieved September 11, 2012, from http://nzmaths.co.nz/resource/greedy-pig-0?parent_node= Smith, R., & Taylor, S. (1998). Dealing with Chance: Prep to Year 4. In J.Gough, & J.Mousley. (Eds.), Mathematics: exploring all angles (Proceedings of the 35th Annual Conference of the Mathematical Association of Victoria, p. 401 408). Brunswick, Victoria: Mathematical Association of Victoria. The State of Queensland (Department of Education, Training and Employment). (2011). Using a variety of strategies Dimensions of teaching and learning. Retrieved September 11, 2012, from http://www.learningplace.com.au/deliver/content.asp?pid=49921 Utah State University. (2010). NLVM 6 8 Data Analysis and Probability Manipulatives. Retrieved from http://nlvm.usu.edu/en/nav/category_g_3_t_5.html

Meghan Walton Van de Walle, J., Karp, S., & Bay-Williams, J. M. (2010). Elementary and middle school mathematics: Teaching developmentally (7th ed.). Boston, MA: Allyn & Bacon. Victorian Curriculum and Assessment Authority [VCAA]. (n.d.). AusVELS Mathematics Curriculum. Retrieved August 12, 2012, from

http://ausvels.vcaa.vic.edu.au/Mathematics/Curriculum/F-10

Unit Planner adapted from the Template provided on LEO by Ann Downton, Australian Catholic University ann.downton@acu.edu.au.

Meghan Walton Appendix A Math Journal Checklist Session 2 Focus: Experimental and Year Level: 6 Topic: Probability Theoretical Probabilities Experimental Probability Fractions, Decimals and Percentages Theoretical Probability Frequency Tables Tree Diagrams

Term: 3 Week: 7 Two or more variables

Name:

Any other comments or notes for lesson prompts: ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________ ...make appropriate assessments of learning and plans for future teaching and learning activities

Vocabulary

Recording Data

Exploring Data

Meghan Walton Appendix B Math Vocabulary Being Utilised by Students Session 3 Focus: Experimental and Year Level: 6 Topic: Probability Theoretical Probabilities Experimental Probability Fractions, Decimals and Percentages Theoretical Probability Frequency Tables

Term: 3 Week: 7

Trials and experiments

Name:

Any other comments or notes for lesson prompting and vocabulary usage: ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________

...make appropriate assessments of learning and plans for future teaching and learning activities

Other Vocabulary

Variables

Chance

Predict

Tally

Data

Meghan Walton Appendix C Class Game of Trouble Session 4

Instructions: Have students in four teams. Each team rolls the dice (in the classroom); the team with the highest number goes first. You can only leave the Home Base if you roll a six and if you land on a spot already occupied, the team you land on gets sent back to home base. First team with all four counters at the finish line wins.

Meghan Walton

Appendix D Student Self-Assessment Session 4 I feel [] confident [] good [] unsure []confused about todays lesson because ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ _________ I understand the following: Always Often Sometimes Slightly Never Theoretical Probability Experimental Probability Fairness A variety of data representations Describing probability with fractions Describing probability with decimals Describing probability with percentages I want to know more about: ____________________________________ ____________________________________ ____________________________________ ____________________________________ Other comments I want to make about my Learning: ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________