PROBLEMS Market Demand Analysis: Q1. Construct a demand schedule for a product X for alternative prices Re.

1, 2, 3, 4,and 5 given its demand function : Dx = 90 2Px. Draw the demand curve for the same? What is its mathematical attribute? P = 1 .. Dx = 90 2 Px = 90 2 x 1 = 90 2 = 88 P = 2 .. Dx = 90 2 x 2 = 90-4 = 86 P = 3 .. Dx = 90 2 x 3 = 90-6 = 84 P = 4 Dx = 90 8 = 82 P = 5 Dx = 90 10 = 80 Mathematical attribute = Dx = f (Px), Dx < 0 Px Q2. The demand curve for a commodity X is represented by Qx = 160000 1000Px. Construct the demand schedule assuming initial price to be Rs.100 and consequent increase by Rs.10 upto Rs.150. Plot the demand curve. P = 100 Dx = 160000 1000 Px = 160000 - 1000 x 100 = 160000 100000 = 60000 P = 110 Dx = 160000 1000 x 110 = 160000 110000 = 50000 P = 120 Dx = 40000 P = 130 Dx = 30000 P = 140 Dx = 20000 P = 150 Dx = 10000 Q3. Suppose the demand function for Komal butter in a town is estimated to be Qd = 600 5P when Qd is the quantity demanded of butter (in 000 kgs per week) and P stands for price, a) estimate at what price demand would be zero. If Qd = 0 , then 0 = 600 5P, 5P = 600 P = 600/5 = 120. When demand is zero, price is Rs.120.
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b) Draw a demand curve at alternative prices Rs.25, 35, 50, 60 and 80. P = 25, Qd = 600 5P = 600 5 x 25 = 600 125 = 475 P = 35, Qd = 600 - 5P = 600 5 x 35 = 600 175 = 425 P = 50 Qd = 600 5 x 50 = 600 250 = 350 P = 60 Qd = 600 5 x 60 = 600 300 = 300 P = 80 Qd = 600 - 5 x 80 = 600 400 = 200 c) What is the statistical characteristics of this demand curve. Downward sloping showing demand steadily falls as price increases. Q4. Central Plaza conducted a study of the demand for mens ties. It found that the average monthly demand (D) in terms of price (P) is given by the equation D = 800 5P. How many ties per day can its store expect to sell at a price of Rs.100 per tie? Demand Equation for ties is Dx = 800 5P. If P = 100 Dx = 800 5 x 100 = 300 Demand is 300 per month, or 10 per day. If the store wants to sell 500 ties per month, what price it should charge? If Dx = 500, 500 = 800 5P, 5P = 800 500 = 300, P = 300/5 = 60. Q5. Demand equation of Sonam tiles is estimated as P = 8000 24Q, Find i) the marginal revenue when Q = 100 and Q = 200 When Q = 100 MR = 8000 24 x 100 = 8000 2400 = 5600 When Q = 200 MR = 8000 24 x 200 = 8000 4800 = 3200 TR is Max. when MR = 0 When MR = 0 8000 24Q = 0 24Q = 8000, Q = 8000/24 = 333 Q6. The demand function for beer in a city is given as Qd = 400 4P, Where Qd = quantity demanded of beer (in 000 bottles per week), P = price of beer per bottle.

a) Construct a demand curve assuming price Rs.10, 12, 15, 20, 25 per bottle. b) At what price would the demand be zero. c) If the producer wants to sell 380,000 bottles per week, what price should he charge? Ans. P = 10 : Qd = 400 4 x 10 = 360 P = 12 : Qd = 400 4 x 12 = 352 P = 15 : Qd = 400 4 x 15 = 340 P = 20 : Qd = 400 4 x 20 = 320 P = 25 : Qd = 400 4 x 25 = 300

a)The data has been plotted on a graph as under :

P 25 20 15 10 0 300 310 320 330 340 350 360 Qd

Scale : Y-axis 2 cm 10, For convenience, there is the scale from origin on x-axis. DD is the linear demand curve derived on the basis of the given function and given the alternative prices. b)In the equation : Qd = 400 4P, let us put Qd = 0 400 P = 0 , 4P = 400, P = 100.

That is to say, at the price of Rs.100 per bottle, the demand for beer will be zero. c) 380,000 bottles is 380 (000 omitted) In the given equation Qd = 400 4P, let Qd = 380, 380 = 400 4P, 4P = 400 380 4P = 20, P =5 The producer should fix the price at Rs.5 per bottle, in order to sell 380,000 bottles per week. Q7. Truett and Ruett (1980) described the following demand function for a brand X of microwave ovens : Qx = f (Px, Pz, Nw, Y, A) Where Qx = quantity demanded per year for brand X of microwave ovens in a city, Px = price of X brand Pz = price of Z brand Nw= number of working women Y = mean annual household income A = annual advertising expenditure Assuming hypothetical data, we may state the demand estimation as under : Qx = 11,93,200 100Px + 20 Pz + 0.002 Nw + 1.8Y + 0.3A On this basis, given that Px = 8000, Pz = 9000, Nw = 800,000 in a city, Y = 100,000 A = 60,000 We can estimate the demand for X brand microwave oven as follows: Quantity demanded Qx = 11,93,200 (100 x 8000) + (20 x 9000) + (0.002 x 800,000) + (1.8 x 100,000) + (0.3 x 60,000) = 11,93,200 (800,000 + 180,000 + 1600 + 180,000 + 1800) = 11,93,200 11,63,400 = 29,800

29,800 microwave ovens of X brand are purchased annually in this city. Case Study Problems: On combined effects of elesticities of demand: Price effect and income effect together on the demand for a particular product can be captured through combined effects of price and income elasticities of demand by using the following equation : Q2 = Q1 [1 + ep (%P) + em (%M) Where income. P = price M = income ep = price elasticity of demand em = income elasticity of demand. Illustration: Q8(1) Panavision a TV manufacturing company, is planning to increase the price of its television sets by 10 % next year. The economic report of the company has forecast a rise in per capita income by 5% during the period. Panavision economic adviser has estimated price elasticity for the TV set at 1.4 and income elasticity at 2.2. The Panavision currently sells 50,000 TV sets. Give the forecast for the sales. Is it advisable to raise the price of TV sets as has been decided in this case when each TV set is currently priced at Rs,10,000? Solution: Given particulars : Ep = -1.4, em = 2.2 Q1 = 50,000 %P = 10% %M = 5% Q2 = 50,000 [1 + (-1.4(0.10) + (2.2)(0.05)] = 50,000 x 0.97 = 48,500 Thus, positive income effect is more than offset by the negative price effect. As such, sales will decline to 48,500. At initial price of Rs.10,000 annual revenue of the firm is Rs,50 lakhs. When the price is raised to Rs.11,000, 48,500 TV sets are expected to be sold. This would fetch a revenue of 48,500 X 11000 = Rs. 53.35 lakhs.
5

Q1 = initial (current period) quantity demanded Q2 = estimated demanded quantity in relation to changes in price and

Thus, the company is going to gain and should, therefore, proceed by its decision. Q9. A number of empirical studies of automobile demand in a country have observed that the price elasticity is approx. -1.2 and the income elasticity is + 2.8. The current sales amount to 8 million units. If the price rises by 10% and income rises 5% next year, how many cars are expected to be sold? Ans. Given price effect on price elasticity ep = - 1.2% Income effect on income elasticity em = 2.8% %Q = ep x P + em x %M = -1.2 x 10% + 2.8 x 5% 1.02 Demand for automobiles = Qa = 1.02 x 8 million = 8.16 million cars. Q2 = Q1[ 1+ eP ( P) + eM( M)] = 8 [ 1 + -1.2(.10) + 2.8(.05)] = 8 ( 1 - 0.12 + 0.14) = 8 x 1.02 = 8.16 Demand for automobiles : Q2 = 8.16 million cars. Q10.Illustration: Cross elasticity as a measure of the effect of change in the fares on the demand for rail service and vice-versa. The cross elasticity of demand for a train service from station A to station B is the rate of change in the number of train tickets sold on that route in relation to the percentage change in the price of Bus service for the same route. If the bus company reduced its fare from Rs.40 to 35, the following data is observed: __________________________________________________________________ ______ Fare (Rs.) Daily No. of Pasengers Bus Rail Bus Rail Before fare change 500 After fare change 400 45 200 45 300 40 35

Percentage change -20% Cross elasticity ec

= %

0 50%

-12.5%

Q in Rail service = -20% = 1.6 %P in Bus service -12.5%

Such a high cross elasticity reflects that the market demand is greatly responsive to the competitive price variation. Advertising or Promotional Elasticity of Demand: Q11.In case several products, the market demand is influenced through advertisement or promotional efforts. The demand function in this case may be stated as : Where market. Qx = f (A), Qx = demand for the product X measured through the quantity sold in the A = advertisement expenditure of the firm. The degree of responsiveness of demand to changes in advertising or Promotional elasticity of demand (eA ) is measured thus: eA
=

% or proportionate change in sales % or proporationate change in advt. expenditure = Q x A A Q

= 10,000 x 50,000 = 0.63 10,000 80,000 In particular, point elasticity is used when the price-quantity changes are infitesimally small (assuming that a small price change is indicated by a virtual point on the demand curve). When there is a substantial price change, a discrete movement is observed. In such a case, arc elasticity is preferable. For all practical purposes, when price change is over 5 per cent, it is better to use arc elasticity measurement to capture a more realistic idea of demand elasticity.

The arc advertising elasticity is measured as : eA arc = Q x A1 + A2 A Q1 + Q2 In the above example, eA arc = 10,000 x 50,000 + 60,000 = 0.65 10,000 80,000 + 90,000 Case Study: Q12 Adam, the owner of Ever-Joy Ice-cream Centre, near University Campus, was also a part-time student of management studies in a Commerce College. After having studied the theory of price elasticity of demand, he thought that the demand for icecream should be price elastic. For an experiment he announced special-reduced price for the Ever-Joy Ice-Cream cone in the second week of August 2001 under the 54th Independence Anniversary Week. He observed the following sales outcome. Sales data for Ever-Joy Ice-Cream Cone Price Total Sale

August Total Sales Revenue 1st week Rs.5000 nd 2 week Rs.6000

Regular Rs. 5 Special Rs. 4

1000 1500

Adam worked out price elasticity coefficient in this case to be : e = Q x P = 500 x 5 P Q 1 1000 = 2.5

Finding demand elasticity to be much above unity, he inferred that the price reduction led the total sales revenue to increase. This outcome encouraged him to reduce the price in October on a permanent basis to Rs.4.50. To his utter surprise he found that his average sales revenue rather declined to Rs.4770.

What happened? Though the average weekly demand had risen to 1060 with the price reduction, the sales revenue declined. Because this time the degree of price elasticity is e = 60 x 5 = 0.6 which turned out to be less than unity. Adam was puzzled. How 0.5 1000 suddenly demand became price inelastic? Why? What is wrong? Reasons: Adams approach to price policy was purely theoretical, assuming all other things being equal. He did not care to look at other factors influencing the demand for ice-cream, such as possibilities like winter, climatic adverse effects, similar price war by the rival shops in the area. Besides, Adam offered a 20% price reduction temporarily in August only for a week, so most buyers responded to take advantage and probably the rivals did not retaliate knowing it a short-term phenomenon at that time. Further, now when the buyers realized that price-reduction in October is permanent, they did not react much on the buying spree. Earlier, the buyers expected that after the celebration week, the prices will go back to original level and therefore purchased more. Thus future expectation was also not taken into consideration while determining the second price reduction. Therefore, business decision of Adam was misled by overestimation of price elasticity from the very short=term data in a special situation rather than resorting to demand estimation based on the long-term sales data under normal circumstances. Q13. When the price of a commodity X was Rs.10 per unit, people consumed 3000 units. With a fall in price to Rs.9 they consumed 3150 units. State the formula and measure the elasticity of demand of X. Elasticity of demand of X = ex = % change in demand = Dx 0.5 % change in price. Px 10 Case Study: The Serpell Report (1983) on Railway finances in England, for instance, measured price elasticity of demand for rail services on some routes to be fairly inelastic = 5 =

(-0.15); hence suggested fares rise of 40 per cent for London commuters. In this case, work out the revenue effect if fare is raised from 10 to 14 and daily 1000 passengers are traveling on this route. Should the authorities accept this suggestion? Give your comment. Elasticity of demand e = % Q, 6%. % P -0.15 = Q 40% Therefore, Q = 40 x -0.15 = -

Total revenue = Old Price = 10, New Price = 14 , % change P is 40%. Initial Revenue PxQ = 10 x 1000 = 10,000 Demand after fare rise = - 6% = 1000 6% = 1000 60 = 940. Revenue when fare is increased= 14 x 940 = 13160 Comment: Since demand is fairly inelastic, even with increase in fare, its revenue effect is positive and substantially high; Therefore, the railway authorities should accept the suggestion made by the Serpell Report. Q14. Suppose the sales for bicycles in Pune at various prices are as follows: Price of a bicycle 500 700 1000 Calculate the arc elasticity of demand between: (i) The price of 500 and 1000 (ii) The price of 500 and 700 (iii) The price of 1000 and 700 (i) Change in quantity demanded = 25 15 = 10 Change in price is 500 1000 = 500 arc elasticity of demand e arc = Q x P1 + P2 = 10 x 500 + 1000 P Q1 + Q2 500 25 + 15 = 10 x 1500 = 15000 = = 0.75 500 x 40 20000 (ii) When P1 = 500 and P2 = 700, Q1 25 and Q2 = 22 , P = 200, Q = 3
10

Quantity demanded Per month ooo bicycles 25 22 15

Arc elasticity of demand e arc = 3 x 500 + 700 = 3600 = .38 200 25 + 22 9400 (iii) When P1 = 1000 and P2 = 700, Q1 15 and Q2 = 22, P = 300, Q = 7 Arc elasticity of demand e arc = 7 x 1000 + 700 = 11900 = 1.07 300 15 + 22 11100 Q15. A firm increases its advertisement expenditure from Rs.60000 to 75000. Its sales increases by 20% from the initial volume of 90000 units. Measure the promotional elasticity of demand. A1 = 60000 Q1 = 90000 A2 = 75000 A = 15000 Q2 = 90000 + 20% = 108,000, Q = 18000 x A = 18000 x 60000 = 0.8 Q 15000 x 90000

Promotional elasticity eA = Q A

Arc advertising elasticity = eA =Q x A1 + A2 A Q1 + Q2 eA arc = 18000 x 60000 + 75000 15000 90000 + 108000 = 0.82

Q16. Assume that the average price of a new car in Mumbai is Rs.2, 60,000 and 90000 cars are sold at this price in a year. If the price elasticity of demand for new cars is 1.7 what will be the effect on annual sales when the average price of a new car declines to Rs.2,45,000. Given: ep = 1.7 P1 = 260000 P2 = 245000 P = 15000 = 5.77% Q1 = 90000 Price elasticity of demand = ep = Q 1.7 = Q Q = 1.7 x 5.77 = 9.80% P 5.77 Q2 get sold. 100 Sales increased by 9.8% or 8820 cars. Revenue R1 = 260000 x 90000 = Rs.2340,00,00,000 (2340 Cr.) -do- R2 = 245000 x 98820 = Rs.2421,09,00,000 (2421.09Cr)
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= 90000 + 9.80 x 90000 = 90000 + 8820 = 98820 cars

EQUILIBRIUM OF THE FIRM Objective Of the firm: May have more than one objective. Profit Maximisation is one. Others may or may not be related to profit maximization. Neo-classical theory assumes that Profit maximization is the sole objective of the firm. Having been popular for a long time, equilibrium of the firm is synonymous with the profit-maximising condition of the firm in the near future. Assumptions: 1. The firm has control over price-output policy. 2. It has a downward sloping demand curve. 3. It is facing upward moving Average Cost Curve. Point of Maximum Profit or Equilibrium : Marginal Revenue.(MR) = Marginal Cost.(MC) Price and Output(Quantity) at this level are equilibrium output and equilibrium price. Some basic concepts: Revenue: Sales revenue = sale price x number of output sold = Total revenue. Average revenue = Total Revenue/Output. (Demand Curve of the firm) It indicates the price realized at different levels of output. Marginal Revenue = Diff. In Total Revenue/Diff. In output. Revenue earned by selling an additional unit of output (price of last unit). Assuming the demand function (AR = P)for the product as P = 100 4X = AR TR = X.P
12

= X (100 4X) = 100 X 4X2 MR = dTR/dX = 8X Cost - Total Cost = Total Fixed Cost + Total Variable Cost TC = TFC + TVC Average Cost = Total Cost /Output = TC/X Marginal Cost = diff. In Total Cost/diff. In output = dTC = dTFC + dTVC dX dX dX When total cost TC = 50 + 20X, Profit Total Revenue - Total Cost = Total Profit.() Total Profit T = TR - TC = (X.P) (TFC+TVC) = X (AR) X (AC) = X (AR AC) A = T/X = TR/X - TC/X = (AR-AC) MC = 20.

Average Profit

Marginal Profit M = diff.T/diff. In X = d T/dX The condition of maximization (equilibrium) require that d T/dX = 0 and d2 T/dX2 is ve. These are called the first order and second order conditions. Here, total profit is to be maximized. Profit function T = TR TC dT = dTR

Break-even Analysis: BEP in terms of physical units = TFCBreak even point means : Total Cost = Total Revenue
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P-AVC (Contribution margin) BEP in terms of Sales Value : Break-even Point = Total Fixed Cost/ Contribution Ratio TFC/CR Contribution Ratio = Total Revenue Total Variable Cost CR= TR TVC = TFC x TR Total Revenue TR TR TVC Q.17 Given the following total cost and total revenue functions, determine the break-even point: TC = 480 + 10Q (TFC + TVC (AVC x Quantity) TR = 50Q Total Fixed Cost is 480. (TFC) Average Variable Cost = Rs.10 (AVC) Total Revenue = 50Q (Given) = Price x Quantity. TR = TC 50Q = 480 = 10Q 40Q = 480 Q = 12. Break even quantity is 12 units.

TR = 50Q = 50 x 12 = 600, TC = 480 + 10Q = 480 = 120 = 600 Therefore TR = TC = Breakeven point. Breakeven price : 50Q = 600 Price x Quantity = 600, Price = Rs.50 Q.18 A firm incurs fixed cost of Rs.4000 and variable cost of Rs.10000 and its total sales receipts are Rs.15000. Determine the breakeven point. CR = TR TVC =( 15000 10000) / 15000 = BEP = (TFC x TR) / (TR-TFC) BEP = TFC/CR = 4000 divided by = 4000 x 3 = 12000. = 4000 x 15000 / 15000 10000 = 60000000 divided by 5000 = 12000

14

BEP means TC = TR

TC = TFC + TVC

12000 = 4000 + TVC

TVC = 8000

Assumptions of Break-even analysis: 1. Cost function and Revenue Function are linear. 2. Total Cost is divided into Fixed and Variable Costs. 3. Selling price is constant. 4. The volume of sales and volume of production are identical. 5. Average and Marginal Productivity of factors are constant. 6. The product-mix is stable in the case of a multi-product firm. 7. Factor price is constant. In practice, these assumptions are unlikely to be fulfilled. Limitations of BEA: It is static : Everything is assumed to be constant, implying a static condition, which is unrealistic and unsuitable for dynamic situation. It is unrealistic: It is based on many assumptions which do not hold good in practice. Linearity of cost and revenue functions are true only for a limited range of output. It has many shortcomings: BEA regards profit as a function of output only. Impact of technical change, better management, division of labour, improved productivity and other factors influencing profit are ignored. Its scope is limited to shortrun only: BEA is not an effective tool for longrun analysis as it is static. It assumes horizontal demand curve with the given price of the product: This is not so in the case of a monopoly firm. It is difficult to handle selling costs in the BEA: Salling costs do not vary with output. They manipulate sales and effect the volume of output. The traditional BEA is very simple: It makes no provision for Corporate Income tax etc.

15

Usefulness of BEA: Despite these limitations BEA is a useful tool of analysis. BEA provides a rough guideline for the alternative possibilities and arriving at a better decision. Of course, BEA is not a perfect substitute for judgment of commonsense and intuition possessed by the businessman. But it can be a good supplement to the value judgment and logical deductions made with commonsense. BEA is particularly useful for decision making in regard to pricing, cost contro, product-mix, channels of distribution etc. BEA provides microscopic view of the profit structure of the firm. Empirical cost functions required in BEA can be of great help for cost control in business. BEA when it provides a flexible set of projections of costs and revenue under expected future conditions can serve the prupose of profit prediction and becomes a tool for profit making. BEA can be used for determining the safety margin regarding the extent to which the firm can permit a decline in sales without causing losses. Safety Margin = Sales BEP x 100 Sales BEA can be useful in determining the target profit sales volume. TFC Target Profit Target Sales Volume = ------------------------Contribution margin It is useful in arriving at make or buy decision. In short, BEA is highly significant in business decision making pertaining to pricing policy, sales projection, capital budgeting, etc. However, the technique is to be used cautiously. Q.19 A firm incurs fixed expenses amounting to Rs.12000. Its variable cost of product X is Rs.5 per unit. It selling price is Rs.8. Determine its break-even quantity (BEQ) and safety margin for the sales of 5000 units. Interpret the result. (i) BEQ = TFC P-AVC = 12000/ (8-5) = 4000

16

ii) Safety Margin = Sales BEQ x 100 = 5000 4000 x 100 = 20% Sales 5000 Q.20 BEQ or BEP 4000 units of product X in this case implies that the firm would not have any loss or profit of selling this level of output at Rs.8. In other words, this is zero profit-output level because: = TR TC In this case, TR = P.Q = 8 x 4000 = 32000 4000 = 32000 = 32000 32000 = 0. TC = TFC + TVC = 12000 x 5 x

The safety margin 20% in this case suggests that the firm can afford to reduce its price by 20% increasing the volume of sales by 20% to 5000 units before incurring a loss. Q.21.A firm starts its business with fixed expenses of Rs. 60,000 to produce commodity X. Its variable cost is Rs2 per unit. Prevailing market price of the product is Rs.6. How much the firm should produce to earn a profit of Rs.20,000 at this price. In this case, we have to determine target profit sales volume (TPS) by using the formula TPS = TFC Target Profit Contribution margin Contribution Margin = Price AVC = 6 2 = Rs.4

TPS = 60,000 20,000 = 40000/4 = 10,000 4 The firm should produce 10000 units of X to earn targeted profit of Rs.20,000 per unit of time. Q.22 A manufacturer buys certain components for producing X at Rs.20 per unit. If he has to make these components, it would require a fixed cost of Rs.15000/- and average variable cost of Rs.5 per unit. His present requirement is 1000 units of these components. Advise him whether he should make or buy them, if he intends to double the output. In this case we need to measure the BEP of the components.
17

BEP = BEP =

TFC P AVC

Here for P we have to take the purchase price.

15000 = 15000 = 1000 20 5 15

At 1000 units requirement, it makes no difference whether the firm buys or makes the components. But when the requirement increases, it is profitable to make the components. Q.23 Calculate the break even point from the following data. Sales = 550 units Sales Receipts = Rs.28,875 Total Fixed Costs = Rs.10,000 Total Variable Costs = Rs.11,000 BEP = Total Fixed Cost 28,875 11000 = 17875/28875 Contribution Ratio CR = TR TVC = TR 28875

Contribution Ratio Sales Receipts = 28875 Sales = 550 units Sale Price : 28875/550 = Rs. 52.50 Total Veriable Cost = 11000 AVC = 11000/550 = 20 10,000 BEP = TFC Rs.32.50) P AVC 307.69 units. Q. 24 Given the following functions, find break-even point. Total cost = 100 + 5X Total Revenue = 10Y, where X is the quantity sold. Sale Price = 10Y / X TFC = 100 Cost price per unit = Rs.5 Quantity sold = X. = 10000/ 52.50 - 20 Total Fixed Cost =

(Cont. margin = 52.50 20 =

18

BEP = 10Y/X

Total Fixed Cost / Cont.Margin

100 (10Y/X 5) = 105

Q.25 A firm purchases ball bearings at Rs.12. Its monthly requirement is 1000 units. It it decides to make its fixed cost would be Rs.18,000 and variable cost Rs.5 per unit. What is your advice. P = Purchase price = Rs.12 AVC = Rs.5 TFC = Rs.18000 BEP = TFC/P-AVC = 18000/(12-5) 18000/7 = 2571.43 units. It is not advisable to make the ball bearings as the requirement is only 1000 units which is well below the breakeven level. Q.26 For a new product, a manufacturer set up an infrastructure which costs him Rs.1,40,000 and variable cost is estimated as Rs.125 for each unit of the product. The sale price per unit is fixed at Rs.160. Write down the cost function Cx, Revenue function Rx and Profit function Px for X units of the product. How many number of units are to be produced in the first year of production so that there may be no loss or gain during that year. TFC = 1,40,000 AVC = 125 Sale Price = P = 160 Contribnution margin = P AVC = 160 125 = 35 BEP = TFC/Cont.margin = 140000 / 35 = 4000 units. Total Cost = Cost function Cx = 140000 + 125X 160X TR = Revenue function Rx =

At breakeven point Px = Rx Cx ( Profit) = 0 TR or Rx = TC or Cx 160x = 140000 + 125x 160x 125x = 140000 35x = 140000 4000

X=

Therefore minimum number of units that should be produced in the first year is 4000 so that there will be no profit/loss. Q.27 A company produced a commodity with Rs.10000 fixed costs. The variable costs are estimated to be 25% of the total revenue received on selling the product at the rate of Rs.6 per unit. Find the total revenue, total cost and profit functions.and BEP.
19

If X is the number of units produced, then toal revenue Rx (TR) = 6X And Variable cost 25% of 6X = 3/2 X Total Fixed cost TFC = 10,000 TC (Cx) = TFC + TVC = 10000 + 3/2 X At BEP Px = 0 Therefore TR (Rx) = TC (Cx) 6X = 10000 + 3/2 X 6X 3/2 X = 10000 9/2 X = 10000 X = 10000 x 2/9 = 20000/9 = 2222.22 units. Profit function Px = Rx Cx = 6X 10000 3/2X = 9/2X 10000 Q.28. A profit making company wants to launch a new product. It observes that the fixed cost of the new product is Rs.35000 and the variable cost per unit is Rs.500. The revenue received on the sale of X units is given by 5000X 100 X2 . Find (i) profit function (ii) break even point. Px (Profit) Rx (TR) Revenue function, Cx (TC) total cost function, then, Rx (TR) = 5000 X 100 X2 (Given) Cx = TFC + TVC = 35000 + 500X Profit = Px = Rx - Cx = 5000X 100 X2 35000 500 X = 4500X 100 X2 35000 BEP = Px = 0 Rx = Cx 5000X 100X2 = 35000 + 500 X 5000X 500 X 100X2 = 35000 4500X - 100 X2 - 35000 = 0 (Divide by -100) X2 4500X + 350 = 0 (X-10)(X-35) =0 Therefore, X 10 or X = 35. Breakeven values are 10 and 35. Q.29 A company has fixed cost of Rs.10000 and cost of producing one unit of its product is Rs.50. If each unit sells for Rs.75, find the break even value. Also find the values of x for which the company always results in profit. Cx = 10000 + 50X (TFC + TVC) Rx = Sale Price x X = 75X Profit Px = Rx Cx = 75X 50X 10000 At BEP Px = 0 75X 50X -10000 = 0 25X = 10000 X = 400 On producing and selling 400 units, the company is neither making a loss/profit. The company will aways remain on profit if Px > 0 25X 10000 > 0 giving X > 400.
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(Page 863 and 864 ..EX. 18.1 10 sums on this chapter to be practiced )

Chapter 7 Demand Forecasting: Demand forecasting is done (a) Personal judgement and experience. (b) Statistical Methods more scientific visavis crude personal judgement. It is better to combine both. In modern times, different statistical methods are to be used in combination. Demand forecasting essential structural form and parameters of Demand Function are necessary. Statistical Methods : (a) Time Series Data (b) Cross-sectional data. In time series, historical changes in income, price etc. are used to determine the change in a variable in relation to time period.. Cross sectional data tries to determine the effect of price, income etc. on the demand of a commodity at a point of time. Basis for : Time series : Basis for : Cross sectional Historical data and past variation in relation to time Diff. Levels of sales among different income and age groups (Period of time) (at a point of time.- in a particular year) A combination of Time Series and Cross Sectional Dtata is also used. Using the above tools three methods are followed for Demand Forecast. 1. Consumption Level Method. Data used : Coefficient of Income elasticity and Coeff. Of Price elasticity. Equation for using Income elasticity: D* = D (I + M*,em) Demand. D = Per capital Demand D* = Projected Per capita

21

M* = Projected % difference in Per Capita Income. em = Income elasticity of demand Equation using Price elasticity of demand: D* = D (I + P*.e) D Present Demand D* = Projected Demand P* = Expected change in price. e = elasticity of price. Illustration: Demand estimate using Income elasticity of Demand : Suppose the income elasticity of demand for chocolates is 3. In the year 1995, per capital income is 4500 and per capita annual demand for chocolates is 10 million in a city. It is expected that in the year 2000 per capital income will be increased by 20 per cent. Then projected per capital demand for chocolates will be : D* = D (I + em) D* = (10)(1 + 0.5 x 3) = 10 x 2.5 = 25. Illustration for Demand estimate using Price elasticity of Demand. Present market demand for the commodity X is 2000 kg at Rs.10 per kg. Its price elasticity is 2. Suppose the price declines to 5., then expected change in demand will be : D* = D (I + P*e) D* = (2000) (1 + 0.5 x 2) = 4000.

2. Trend Projection Method Graphical or Least Squares Methods. Method of Least Squares is very popular. Method of Least Squares : Illustration : Q.30 Annual Sales of a Company are as follows : Year: Sales: 1991 45 1992 56 1993 58 1994 46 1995 75

Using the method of least squares, fit a straight-line trend and estimate the annual sales of 1997. Solution:
22

Year

Sales 1990 = 0 Estimated Trend: Time Devn. Y = 45 + 5X y x

x2

xy

(Rs.

000) 1991 50 1992 55 1993 60 1994 65 1995 70 n=5 y = 300 y =300 x = 15 x2 = 55 xy = 950 75 5 25 375 46 4 16 184 78 3 9 234 56 2 4 112 45 1 1 45

Take the normal equations: Y = n.a + b x ; xy = a x + b x2 Substituting the values we have, 300 = 5a + 15b (X3) 900 = 15a + 45b 950 = 15a + 55b 950-900 = 55-45b 10b = 50 b = 5 300 = 5a + 15 x 5 5a + 75 = 300 5a = 225 a = 45

Estimated Trend = Y = n.a. + b.x = 5 x 15 + 5X = 45 + 5X Now, the st. line equation is Y1991 = 45 + 5(1) = 50 1992 45 + 5(2) = 55 1993 45 + 5(3) = 60 1994 45 + 5(4) = 65 1995 45 + 5(5) = 70 Forecast for 1997 = 45 + 5(7) = 80 i.e. Rs.80,000/-

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3. Regression Analysis and Econometric Method. Most commonly used. Regression Analysis : Examples: Increase in Personal disposable income products. Increase in Agricultural (farm) income Equipments. Increase in Construction contracts material (cement, steel, bricks) Increase in Automobile bookings petrol, engine oil etc. results in results in results in results in Demand for consumer Demand for Agri. Demand for building Demand for spare parts,

Econometric Model for Demand Forecasting: Haynes, Mote and Paul formula (equation) Y = 2.9 x 0.57X Y = average number of passengers traveling per day in a city. X = mid-year estimate of population in lakhs for the city. Given mid-year population figure, demand for the year can be estimated. Q.31 In order to predict the demand for passenger transport in Hyderabad, the following equation was used:. Y = -2.9 + 0.57 X The population is estimated to be 1,85,000 on January 1, 1977. Find out the demand for passenger transport. Solution: Y = -2.9 + 0.57 (185000) = -2.9 + 105450 = 105447 cars. Q.32 A departmental store conducted a study of the demand for mens shirts. It found that the average daily demand (D) in terms of price (P) is given by the equation: D = 700 5P. (i) How many shirts per day can the store expect to sell at a price of Rs.100 per shirt.
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(ii) If the store wants to sell 100 shirts per day, what price should it charge. (iii)What is the highest price anyone would be willing to pay? Solution: (i) D = 700 5P P= 100 D = 700 5(100) = 200 shirts.

(ii) 100 = 700 5P 5P = 700 100 = 600 P = 120 = Rs.120 (iii) Maximum possible price means minimum possible demand. Since demand cannot be kept as 0, we take it as 1 1 = 700 5P 5P = 700 1 = 699 P = 139.8 Rs.139.80 Q.33 The price per puchase and the market share of Monkey Brand Cigarettes in a region are obtained as under : Price (paise) Market share % 82 5 80 7 78 10 76 15 74 20 72 25 70 30 (Y axis) (X axis)

Establish A linear demand function on the basis of this information. What demand do you expect at a price of 60 paise.?(Draw a graph Market share 55%) Q.34 Given data: Year 1996 Sales 1990 10 30 (in lakhs) Forecast the annual sales for 1988. Q35 By the method of least squares, compute the trend values. Year 1981 Sales (lakhs) 50 1982 62 1983 78 1984 48 1985 74 1991 12 1992 15 1993 18 1994 24 1995 25

Forecast the annual sales for 1988.

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Q.36 Project the trend of sales for the next three years from the following data: Year 1981 Sales (lakhs) 120 1982 140 1983 150 1984 170 1985 190

Q.37 The following series show the sales of fertiulisers in A.P. during 1980-85. Years: 1985 Sales (lakhs) 200 1980 83 1981 92 1982 71 1983 90 1984 169

Using the method of least squares, find the trend values and estimate the sales for the year 1986. Q.38 Using the following demand equation : Y = - 3.2 + 0.62 X, estimate the demand for road transport in 1985, if the population of the city is 2,044,000. Q.39 Project the trend of sales for the next four years: Year 1995 Sales(lakhs) 120 1996 140 1997 130 1998 145 1999 160

Q.40 Using the method of least squares, estimate the demand for the years 2000 and 2001. Year 1995 Sales 91 (water pumps) 1996 99 1997 95 1998 101 1999 120

Production Analysis - Iso-Quants: Q.41 The short run production function of a hosiery mill is: Qx = 112L + 6L2 0.1L3 Where Qx is the daily output of banians, L number of workers employed, (i) How many workers are employed when the average physical product of banian is maximized?

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(ii) How many workers are employed when the marginal physical product of banian is maximized? (iii) If the daily wage rate is Rs.30 and the selling price of the banian is Rs.40 per piece, how many banians should be produced to maximize profits in this business? Solution (i) From the production function Qx = 12L + 6L2 0.1L3 derive Qx/L as follows:Average production per labour = Quantity produced divided by Number of Labour (Qx/L) APL = Qx/L = 12 + 6L 0.1L2 First derivative of the function is obtained as : d (Q/L) = 6L 0.2L2 dL L : 6 0.2L

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