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MATH 608D

Topics in Probability
Mon Wed Fri, 14:00 15:00, Math 204 Pilot for a new course called Stochastic Processes and their Applications

September 2013

Instructor: D. Brydges, MATX 1205, 604-822-3620, db5d@math.ubc.ca Oce hours: TBA Text: Introduction to Stochastic Processes, Second Edition, Greg Lawler http://www.math.uchicago.edu/~lawler/books.html Prerequisites: Linear algebra, equivalent to one of MATH 152, MATH 221, MATH 223 Ordinary dierential equations, Laplace transform and complex exponential equivalent to one of MATH 215, MATH 255 and MATH 256 Multivariable calculus, innite series and power series A rst course in probability equivalent to math 302 Description: Markov chains and their application in Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation are important in increasingly many sciences. This is a pilot for a new course intended for graduate students from applied backgrounds who want to learn about these techniques. The goal is to provide a good grasp of the theorems and examples that drive this subject, without assuming a strong background in undergraduate analysis. Outline: 1. Review of probability spaces events independence random variables and their distributions sampling from a distribution expectation and conditional expectation 2. Discrete time Martingales 3. Discrete versions of stochastic integrals 4. Stopping times and cant beat the system theorems 5. Discrete time Markov chains 6. Markov Chain MonteCarlo Simulations 7. Brownian motion and perhaps Ito integrals Homework/solutions: posted at http://www.math.ubc.ca/~db5d/math608/assignments.html Grading: Course mark will be based on homeworks (50 %) and a take-home nal (50%). Booklist: Useful references are Essentials of Stochastic Processes, Richard Durrett, http://www.math.duke.edu/~rtd/EOSP/EOSP_beta. pdf Monte Carlo Strategies in Scientic Computing, Jun S. Liu, http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/ ~junliu/

Monte Carlo Methods in Statistical Physics, M. E. J. Newman, G. T. Barkema. (An older book that does a beautiful job of explaining the origins and principles of Markov Chain Monte Carlo) Updated July 2 2013.

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