P 3-8

Temp

2 day M.A |Error|

93
94
93
95
96
88
90

Sum

A)
B)
C)
D)
E)

3 day
2 day
MAD
MSE
MAPE

91.33333
89
2.7
13.35
3%

93.5
93.5
94
95.5
92

Square of Error Absolute % Error

0.5
1.5
2
7.5
2

0.25
2.25
4
56.25
4

0.53%
1.60%
2.13%
7.85%
2.17%

13.5

66.75

14.29%

P 3-9
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

Price/Chip
1.8
1.67
1.7
1.85
1.9
1.87
1.8
1.83
1.7
1.65
1.7
1.75

2 Month M.A

|Error|

3 Month M.A

|Error|

1.735
1.685
1.775
1.875
1.885
1.835
1.815
1.765
1.675
1.675

0.035
0.165
0.125
0.005
0.085
0.005
0.115
0.115
0.025
0.075

1.723
1.740
1.817
1.873
1.857
1.833
1.777
1.727
1.683

0.127
0.160
0.053
0.073
0.027
0.133
0.127
0.027
0.067

Sum
Mean

0.793
0.088
1.95
1.9
1.85
1.8
1.75
1.7
1.65
1.6
1.55
1.5
1

10

11

12

Forecast ( = 0 .1)
1.8
1.8
1.787
1.778
1.785
1.797
1.804
1.804
1.806
1.796
1.781
1.773

Forecast ( = .3)
1.8
1.26
0.882
1.138
1.302
1.444
1.573
1.667
1.717
1.747
1.752
1.729

Forecast ( = .5)
1.8
0.9
0.45
0.243
0.204
0.164
0.085
0.085
0.045
0.080
0.097
0.061

21.512
1.793

18.011
1.501

4.214
0.351

Price/Chip
2 Month M.A
3 Month M.A

P 3-10
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

3 Year M.A 3 year WMA

Demand
4
6
4
5
10
8
7
9
12
14
15
Forecasts=

4.67
5.00
6.33
7.67
8.33
8.00
9.33
11.67
13.67

4.5
5
7.25
7.75
8
8.25
10
12.25
14

16
14
12
10
Demand
8

3 Year M.A

3 year WMA

4
2
0
1

10 11 12

P 3-11
Year

Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

4
6
4
5
10
8
7
9
12
14
15

Exp Smoothing = .3 Absolute error

5
1
4.7
1.3
5.09
1.09
4.76
0.24
4.83
5.17
6.38
1.62
6.87
0.13
6.91
2.09
7.54
4.46
8.87
5.13
10.41
4.59
11.79
SUM
26.81
MAD =
2.44

P 3-12
Day
Actual Demand
Monday
88
Tuesday
72
Wednesday
68
Thursday
48
Friday
F5 =

72

Forecast Demand
88
88
84
80
72

P 3-13
Year

Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6

Sum
Average

45
50
52
56
58

Exponential smoothing ( = .6) Absolute Error

41
4
43.4
6.6
47.36
4.64
50.14
5.86
53.66
4.34
56.26
25.44
5.09

Exponential smoothing ( = .9) Absolute Error 3 Year MA Absolute Error

41
4
44.6
5.4
49.46
2.54
51.75
4.25
49
7
55.57
2.43
52.67
5.33
57.76
55.33
18.62
12.33
3.72
6.17

P 3-14
Week

Actual
1
2
3
4

Sum
Mean

0.7
1
1
1

1st Forecast Error

Square of Error 2nd Forecast Error
0.9
0.2
0.04
0.8
0.1
1.05
0.05
0.0025
1.2
0.2
0.95
0.05
0.0025
0.9
0.1
1.2
0.2
0.04
1.11
0.11
0.5
0.085
0.51
0.125
0.02125
0.1275

Square of Error
0.01
0.04
0.01
0.0121
0.0721
0.018025

Year
Sales
Forecast 3 year
Absolute Deviations
2005
450
2006
495
2007
518
2008
563
487.67
75.33
2009
584
525.33
58.67
2010
555
Sum
134
Mean
67
Answer: MAD =

67

P 3-16
Year
Time Period Demand square of TP
2005
1
450
1
2006
2
495
4
2007
3
518
9
2008
4
563
16
2009
5
584
25
Sum
15
2610
55
Mean
3
522
11
b=
a=

450
990
1554
2252
2920
8166
1633.2

33.6
421.2

Year
Time Period Sales
Forecast
Errors
2005
1
450
454.8
4.8
2006
2
495
488.4
6.6
2007
3
518
522
4
2008
4
563
555.6
7.4
2009
5
584
589.2
5.2
2010
6
622.8
Sum
28
MAD
5.6

P 3-17
Year
Sales
Forecast = .3 Error
Forecast = .6 Error
Forecast = .9
2005
450
410
40
410
40
410
2006
495
422
73
434
61
446
2007
518
443.9
74.1
470.6
47.4
490.1
2008
563
466.13
96.87
499.04
63.96
515.21
2009
584
495.191 88.809
537.416 46.584
558.221
2010
521.8337
565.3664
581.4221
Sum
372.78
258.94
MAD
74.56
51.79

Error
40
49
27.9
47.79
25.779
190.47
38.09

P 3-18
Periods
1
2
3
4
5
=
Forecast

Actual Demand Forecast

50
50
42
50
56
48
46
50
0.25
49

P 3-19
=
Month
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Jul
Aug
Sum
Mean

0.1 =

0.2

Income Forecast = 0.1 Smoothed Trend at = 0.2

FIT
70
65
0
65
68.5
65.5
0.1
65.6
64.8
65.89
0.16 66.05
71.7
65.92
0.13 66.06
71.3
66.62
0.25 66.87
72.8
67.31
0.33 67.64
68.16
0.44 68.60

Squered Error
25
8.41
1.56
31.85
19.66
26.58
113.05
18.84

P 3-20
=
Month
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sum
Mean

0.1 =
0.8
Income Forecast Smoothed Trend at = 0.8
FIT
Squered Error
70
65
0
65
25
68.5
65.5
0.4
65.9
6.76
64.8
66.16
0.61
66.77
3.87
71.7
66.57
0.45
67.02
21.89
71.3
67.49
0.82
68.31
8.91
72.8
68.61
1.06
69.68
9.76
69.99
1.31
71.30
76.19
12.70

P 3-21
=

0.2 =

Month

Actual Deman
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

F5 =

5
A4 + (1 - )(F4 + T4)

F5 =
T5 =

(F5 - F4) + (1 - )T4

11
12.8
15.18
17.82
19.91
22.51
24.11
27.14
29.28
32.48

2
1.92
2.10
2.32
2.23
2.38
2.07
2.45
2.32
2.68

F5 + T5

F6 =

T6 =
FIT6 =

22.14297856

FIT
13
14.72
17.28
20.14
22.14
24.89
26.18
29.59
31.60
35.16

For month =

T6 =

2.22870016

FIT5 =

Smoothed Trend at = 0.8

F6 =

19.9142784

T5 =
FIT5 =

Forecst
12
17
20
19
24
21
31
28
36

For month =

0.4

FIT6 =

6
A5 + (1 - )(F5 + T5)
22.5144
(F6 - F5) + (1 - )T5
2.37726
F6 + T6
24.8916

P 3-22
For month =
F7 =

7
A6 + (1 - )(F6 + T6)

F7 =
T7 =

24.89164472
(F7 - F6) + (1 - )T6

T7 =
FIT7 =
FIT7 =

2.377261875
F7 + T7

For month =
F8 =
F8 =
T8 =
T8 =
FIT8 =

27.2689066

FIT8 =

8
A7 + (1 - )(F7 + T7)
26.1792
(F8 - F7) + (1 - )T7
2.06593
F8 + T8
28.2452

A5 + (1 - )(F5 + T5)

(F6 - F5) + (1 - )T5

For month =
A7 + (1 - )(F7 + T7)

F9 =
F9 =

(F8 - F7) + (1 - )T7

T9 =
T9 =
FIT9 =
FIT9 =

9
A8 + (1 - )(F8 + T8)
29.595
(F9 - F8) + (1 - )T8
2.45159
F9 + T9
32.0466