Testimony before the

National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States

July 9,2003

The Rise and Decline of Al Qaeda

By Rohan Gunaratna

Introduction

Five factors contributed to the rise of Al Qaeda:

• First, the inevitability of history - Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in December

1979, US assistance to the anti-Soviet multi-national Afghan campaign, and the resultant
growth of Islamism.

The defeat of the "communist army" by the ideology of Islamism (and material support
from the West and the Middle East) reinforced the belief that the United States, the
remaining superpower too could be defeated through guerrilla warfare and terrorism.1 As
the proclaimed vanguard of the struggle, Al Qaeda attacked America's most outstanding
economic, military and political landmarks on September 11, 2001, to show the way to
the Islamic movements, that the US too could be attacked and destroyed.

• Second, the international neglect of Afghanistan, especially by the US after

Afghanistan, the frontline state had won the free world the greatest victory after the
defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.

After the gravity of terrorism shifted from the Syrian controlled Bekka Valley in Lebanon
to Afghanistan, the war-ravaged country evolved into a "terrorist Disneyland" hosting
training and operational infrastructure for three-dozen Islamist groups. Until US led
coalition intervention in Afghanistan on October 7,2001, Afghanistan trained several
tens of thousands of terrorists and guerrillas.

• Third, the US policy of disengagement and at times isolation from world affairs,
facilitating terrorist groups to grow in strength, size and influence worldwide and their
state sponsors a free reign.

When critical, US government engaged other governments not publics. The US

government is reluctant, unable, and unwilling to engage in public diplomacy especially
in the Muslim World. The American leaders must understand that future threats to the
United States will be primarily from non-state actors spawned, strengthened and
influenced by virulent ideologies preached non-governmental leaders.

1 While guerrilla groups target combatants, terrorist groups target non-combatants.