World LTE Trends

LTE INDONESIA: TECHNOLOGY, REGULATION, ECOSYSTEM & APPLICATION MASTEL Event, July 16th

Guillaume Mascot
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THE EMERGENCE OF MOBILE BROADBAND

30x traffic growth during next 5 years!

2.5 billion smart connections by 2015
Source: Bell Labs analysis

Internet over mobile 70% of mobile data by 2014

Mobile devices are primary means of access for 75% of YouTube users
Source: Nielsen Three Screen Report

Facebook: 600+ million users, 200+ million access via mobile devices YouTube = top online video content property @ 144.8 million unique viewers in December 2010
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DEVICE AND OPPORTUNITY EXPLOSION

WNG analysis of device usage in operator network WW Connected Devices installed base 2011 - 2016

100

80

Percentage of Subs

60

40

All Devices IPhone

20

Blackberry Data card Nexus One

0 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000

Mbytes

10 BBs = 1 iPhone 10 iPhones = 1 Datacard ~2-3 iPhones = 1 iPad

Connected Devices will grow x4 times over 5 years from 1.2B up to 5B Connected TV will grow x11 times over 5 years Tablets will grow x5 times over 5 years M2M (utilities, security, automotive, healthcare) will grow x5 over 5 years

NEW DEVICES DRIVING EXPONENTIAL INCREASE IN CONSUMPTION

Sources: Informa, Datamonitor, Machina Resarch 2011
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APAC: A STRONG REGION

FIXED BROADBAND CONNECTIONS FTTX CONNECTIONS INTERNET TRAFFICE FUELED BY ONLINE VIDEO

477
257
Million

206
79
Million

530,000
67,000
Petabyte

Million

Million

Petabyte

2011
TOTAL MOBILE PHONE SUBSCRIPTIONS

2016

2011
SMARTPHONE SALES (UNITS)

2016

2010
NFC-BASED MOBILE WALLET

2015

2.9
Billion

4.2
Billion

154
Million

584
Million

7.5
Million

207
Million

2011 2016

2011 2016

2012 2016

THE NUMBER OF MOBILE BB CONNECTIONS WILL INCREASED BY 19 IN INDONESIA

Sources: Pyramid Research, ABI, Informa Telecoms &PURSUANT Media TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION ALCATEL-LUCENT INTERNAL PROPRIETARY USE

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DAILY VIDEO VIEWING AROUND THE WORLD

GLOBAL ASIA PACIFIC

28%

11%

8%

6%

41%

15%

9%

9%

Tablet In-home video Mobile Phone Handheld multimedia

device game system

Mobile Phone Handheld multimedia device

Tablet In-home video game system

NORTH AMERICA

EUROPE

20%
Mobile Phone

13 %

8 %

6%

Connected citizens watch video on device daily

15 %

6 %

4 %

3%

Tablet In-home video Handheld game system multimedia device

Tablet In-home video Mobile Phone Handheld multimedia device game system

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MORE USERS, MORE TRAFFIC, MORE SPECTRUM NEEDED Example: South Korea
Traffic [PB]

1.8GB /user/Month

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Average throughput per user expected to double in 2013

110MHz BW

additionally required by 2015

(65MHz auction in Apr. 2013)

Unlimited Data

CDMA LTE WiFi*

WCDMA WiBro

service
Started in LTE

<Source : Korea Communications Commissions and Service Providers>

275Mhz
Additional in 5 years

1200Mhz
Cumulative by 2015

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DISRUPTIVE CHANGES IN PROGRESS

The explosion of mobile data traffic
- Unanticipated phenomenon by industry, but at the eve of mobile internet - Rapid adoption of mobile: 1 terminal for 6 people in the world in 1999 - 7 for 10 in 2010 - 10% of mobile "Internet" in 2010 and 70% in 2015 - The 400 most dense cities in the world: 400 per km2 smart phones in 2010 - 13 000 in 2015 - 90% of video traffic will be in 2015 - In 2015: 1 out of 5 smart phone simultaneously connected to a speed of 800 kbs = increased connectivity 2Gbs / km2 against 16 Mbs / km2 today - An increase in traffic by a factor of 30 in the next 5 years!
Data traffic will drive demand / smart phones will be everywhere, even in rural zones, in less dense populated areas / need for backhauling
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DOMINANT INITIAL LTE SPECTRUMS (FDD AND TD-LTE)

Deployment Strategy Varies Upon Spectrum Availability
North America 700MHz,2.6GHz, AWS(1.7/ 2.1 GHz), 850MHz, 1900 MHz Europe, Middle East & Africa 2.6GHz (FDD, TDD), 800MHz, 1.8 GHz, 2.1 GHz, 900 MHz

South America N. America/Europe Freq bands

Asia Pacific 700 MHz, 2.1 GHz,2.6 GHz (FDD & TDD), 1.8 GHz; 2.3 GHz (TDD), 850 MHz, 900 MHz, 1.7 GHz

Frequency bands are FDD unless noted

Key FDD Bands: 700 MHz, AWS (1.7/2.1 GHz), 2.6 GHz,
800 MHz,1800 MHz
1.4MHz 3MHz 5MHz 10MHz 20MHz

Key TD-LTE Bands: 2.3 GHz, 2.6 GHz

2G spectrum 3G spectrum 1.9/2.1 GHz

New spectrum for LTE

2G spectrum

3G spectrum 2100 MHz

New spectrum for LTE 2.6 GHz 2.3 also for TDD

and/or

2G spectrum refarming 1.9/2.1 GHz

and/or

2G spectrum
refarming

700/800 MHz 900 MHz

850/900/ 1800 MHz

850/900/ 1800 MHz

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TD-LTE AND LTE FDD BASIC DIFFERENCES

Time FDD TDD

FDD: Frequency Division Duplex TDD: Time Division Duplex

Uplink Downlink Up & Downlink

Frequency

FDD - Symmetrical and separated Uplink & Downlink Channels TD-LTE there is a flexibility to allocate more or less resources to Uplink or Downlink

Time

Frame Split Options

Uplink Downlink

Uplink Downlink

Uplink Downlink

Frequency

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CURRENT STATUS OF 700/800MHZ DIGITAL DIVIDENDS

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BENEFITS OF DIGITAL DIVIDEND (700-900MHZ) BANDWIDTH FOR RURAL

BETTER SIGNAL PROPAGATION
RF signal propagation in 700Mhz improve considerably Increased coverage range and throughput Improved coverage into indoor environment

RURAL ACCESS
More efficient coverage of sparsely populated areas Fixed Broadband Access for communities(education, gover nment and Tele-health) Mobile Broadband Access for all (mobile banking, payment, multi-media, etc.)

CONTIGUOUS MOBILE BROADBAND

New applications: M2M, telemetry, metering, t racking & payment systems, etc.

PUBLIC SAFETY BROADBAND

LTE integrates with traditional voice Land Mobile Radio (LMR), to enhance emergency response The US FCC dedicated spectrum for LTE nationwide interoperable Networks-would allow regional interoperability and economies of scale
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RIGHT TECHNOLOGY FOR RIGHT SPECTRUM

BAND 700 MHz 900 MHz 1800 MHz 2100 MHz 2.3/2.6 GHz CURRENT TV Broadcast 2G 2G 3G Various FUTURE LTE 3G+ LTE 3G+, LTE & Small Cells LTE FOR Coverage Coverage Coverage+Capa city Capacity Capacity

throughout the Region (Rural, Urban, Indoor)

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GLOBAL LTE TERMINAL UPDATE - GSA (Status 2013/03/27)

Source: GSA Status of the LTE Ecosystem, 27th of March, 2013

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SPECTRUM & ECO-SYSTEM KEY TAKEAWAYS

RIGHT TECHNOLOGY RIGHT SPECTRUM AFFORDABILITY

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COMPARING 3G AND LTE - OVERALL TRENDS

MORE TECHNOLOGY SAVVY USERS WITH BETTER DEVICES USE MORE OF EVERYTHING!

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4G LTE ENABLING NEW CONSUMER & ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS

Consumer Application Connected Car Live Messaging Next Generation Music Enhanced Mobile Video Multi Party Video Calling Image Enabled Search Location Based Service Mobile Video Monitoring Mobile Gaming Mobile Advertising Mobile Payment & Banking Technology Fit LTE HSPA Enterprise Application Secure/Manage Data on Devices Mobile Collaboration Multi Party Video Calling Mobile Cloud Computing Wireless Broadband Branch Office Location Based Comm. & Services Navigation Helper Interactive Digital Signage M2M Public Safety Surveillance
Source: * Alcatel-Lucent Market & Customer Insight Europe Very Good

Technology Fit LTE HSPA

10 X SPEED VS. 3G // 3-5X LOWER LATENCY

Good Not Good

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SPECTRUM CONSIDERATION
Capacity Typically, higher frequency bands have larger available bandwidth
Band 12 Band 13 Band 5 Band 8 Band 3 Band 1 Band 7 700MHz 700MHz 850MHz 900MHz 1800MHz 2100MHz 2600MHz 2 x 18MHz 2 x 10MHz 2 x 25MHz 2 x 35MHz 2 x 75MHz 2 x 60MHz 2 x 70MHz

KEY CONSIDERATIONS

Co-existence and Ecosystem Interference and spectrum regulation (guard band, FDD, TDD) The right combination of frequency bands and technology is key, especially in the initial phase
WiMAX WCDMA LTE GSM

Coverage The lower the frequency band, the better

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