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The systems approach is the study of systems that emphasises the connections among various parts that constitute a whole. Systems thinking is concerned with connectedness as well as wholeness in problem analysis and solving.
[Source: Senge, 1993]
Appreciates both role of systems thinking and use of system dynamics notation
Thinking in Circles
Abdel-Hamids article Thinking in Cycles states that ...(with) the rapid evolution of software engineering tools, techniques, and technology, managers must be prepared to boldly go where no one has gone before while virtually guaranteeing that their missions will meet with success. Similarly redesigning or re-engineering Business processes or investing in new technology is going to places where organisations have not been before!
[Source: Abdel-Hamid, 1991] Simulation & Modeling Week 3 Causal Loop Diagrams 5
Supports modelling Dynamic Behaviour: Instances, Causes and Problems Feed back loops and delays Influence Diagrams Construction and Use Systems Modelling using: Influence Diagrams: Stock and Flow diagrams
Week 3 Causal Loop Diagrams 6
1. 2. 3. 4.
Material cause: the substance that made it so Efficient cause: the direct efforts that made it so Formal cause: the plan or agent that made it so Final cause: the ultimate purpose for being so
1. 2. 3. 4.
Material cause: wood, bricks, mortar Efficient cause: the construction workers Formal cause: the blue prints Final cause: need for a house
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Simulation & Modeling Week 3 Causal Loop Diagrams
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Challenge
GLOBAL natural resource depletion Global warming and climate change Overpopulation
REGIONAL
Cause
Human consumption Release of carbon from fossil fuels Reproductive rights Automobile
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Casual Loop Diagrams are cause and effect representations of structures and processes that have loops or feedback. Causal loop diagrams show causality There is an arrow going from population to death
population
deaths
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Causal Links
A influences B. If A increases, that will tend to increase B. If A goes down in value, that will tend to reduce B. C influences D. If C increases, that will tend to decrease D. If C goes down in value, that will tend to increase D.
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C
Simulation & Modeling
Polarity
+ or s (same) indicates that an increase in the cause will lead to an increase in the effect - or o (opposite) indicates that positive value of the cause will lead to a decrease in the effect
+ +
population deaths
deaths
population -
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Loops
A loop : occurs when arrows connect a variable to itself through a series of other variables This example shows a loop from population through births and back to population. There exists both negative (balancing) and positive (Reinforcing) feedback loops in SD problems
population
births
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Hunger
O
The O means that the two variables move in opposite directions, all other things being equal
Amount Eaten
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As indicated in the diagram above, thing 1 can add to thing 2, as indicated by a "+" sign, thus increasing thing 2. The alternative is that thing 1 can subtract from thing 2, as indicated by the "-" sign in the above figure, thus decreasing thing 2.
Simulation & Modeling Week 3 Causal Loop Diagrams 18
The figure above indicates that product sales subtracts from finished goods inventory. If product sales increase it will subtract even more from finished goods inventory. On the other hand, if product sales decrease it will still subtract from finished goods inventory, just not quite so much.
Simulation & Modeling Week 3 Causal Loop Diagrams 19
= f(parts + feedback)
Simulation & Modeling Week 3 Causal Loop Diagrams 20
enhancing destablizing
Population (+) size
Potentially Finite
in extent
(+)
Population growth ( + )
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The principal in the savings account interacts with the interest rate and adds to the interest.
Interest rate is considered to be a constant in this example. Interest then adds to the principal. This reinforcing action happens every so many months depending on the period over which the institution computes the interest.
Simulation & Modeling
The SNOWBALL rolling down hill is your signal that the loop is a reinforcing loop. The SMALL GRAPH to the right of principle indicates that the growth of principal is exponential.
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(+)
BeerNut consumption ( + )
S
Interest
Balance
S
Simulation & Modeling Week 3 Causal Loop Diagrams 23
Snowball effect as it rolls down a mountain side, it picks up snow, its mass and circumference increase which causes the snow ball to grow even faster As a political movement grows, its popularity and ability to attract support also grows
The exponential growth curve characterizes most positive feedback systems. World population, food production, industrialization, pollution all exhibit exponential growth
Variable
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(+)
(+) (+)
B C
Production
Investment
+
Industrial Capital
(+)
(+)
+
Plant A provides food that worm B uses Worm B released nutrients that are then used by microbe C Microbe C transfers nutrients to plant D Plant D provides necessary shade for plant A
Simulation & Modeling Week 3 Causal Loop Diagrams 25
(+)
Interest ( + ) added/month
(+)
Natural resources (-) (natural capital)
( + ) Human population
(+)
Quality of (+) public services
Simulation & Modeling
(+)
(+) Size of tax base
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Invest ment
Profits +
+ Advertising
+ Industrial Capital
+ Sales +
Production
Example : Self regulating temperature of the human body which enables it to maintain a relatively constant internal temperature called homeostatis
equilibrating,
adaptive
(-)
Sweat ( + )
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(-)
deaths
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The small clock to the right of the arc between action and current state indicates some time delay that it takes for the action to change the current state. As the current state gets closer to the desired state the gap gets smaller and smaller so it adds less and less to the action,which is adding to the current state.
Once the action has moved the current state to a point where it equals the desired state the gap is zero and there's no more addition to the action, so there is no more action.
The balance in the centre of the loop is your indication that the loop is a balancing loop. Typical examples of balancing loops are driving from location A to location B, developing a skill, building something, fixing a problem, etc.
(-)
Food( + ) Consumption
(-)
Sweat ( + )
( + ) Fox population
(-)
Bad behavior
(-)
Hare ( - ) population
Simulation & Modeling Week 3 Causal Loop Diagrams
(-) ?
Punishment ( + )
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+ Quality of + # of mistakes
work
A good way to start is by brainstorming a list of all variables associated with a phenomenon. Then, begin your causal loop diagram by selecting only those system elements that are causally related to each other. Arrows between variables are used to indicate the direction of causality. For instance, if you have two variables, amount of coal burned and amount of acid rain generated an arrow would be directed from the coal to the acid rain. Points of arrows are labeled with (+) or (-) sign to indicate positive or negative effect. A (+) means that change in the variable at the tail of the arrow leads to change in the same direction in the variable at the point of the arrow (i.e., if the one at the tail increases, then this necessarily causes the one at the point to increase). Important: when labeling, consider each pair of variables connected by an arrow in isolation from all other variables (completely ignore the other variables).
Simulation & Modeling Week 3 Causal Loop Diagrams 34
Determine the overall sign of a feedback loop by counting the total number of (-) signs at the end of the arrows within the complete loop.
The loop is a positive feedback if there is an even number of (-) signs (or no - signs). The loop is a negative feedback if there is an odd number of (-) signs.
Place a large (+) or (-) sign in the center of each loop to indicate the overall direction. Both positive and negative loops are typically embedded within large dynamic systems.
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Water T
What do you think would happen in a more complicated setting, where you have to share the supply of hot water (critical resource) with someone/something else?
Simulation & Modeling Week 3 Causal Loop Diagrams 37
Water Temperature
Desired Temperature
B O
Tap setting
S
T Gap
(A-D)
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EXERCISES : Develop causal loop diagrams from the following verbal descriptions giving clear explanations. Identify the relationships & polarity between each pair of variables as well as the polarity of each loop
Population and Land Use Loop : While tending to reinforce economic growth,
population growth tends to drive housing construction at a greater pace to match population growth. Assuming only a fixed amount of land available for industrial and housing use, increasing the housing stock makes less land available for business expansion. As the unavailability of more land begins to suppress business expansion in the area, the demand for labour decreased. Consequently, local employment opportunities decline. Once potential migrants perceive the lack of opportunities, declining in-migration generates a reduction in the population growth of the area.
Simulation & Modeling Week 3 Causal Loop Diagrams 40
Births Population Adult Women Soil fertility Social controls on children Food/person Intensity of Land use Food production Quality of life
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2.
3.
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Examples
(+ )
Loss of public services ( + ) (+) Decreasing tax base
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If it helps to clarify dynamics, it is fine to include forcing variables that are cause, but are not themselves affected by the dynamics depicted (i.e. they are not actually part of a loop within the model). As with all models, you should strive to use minimum number of variables necessary to capture the dynamics of interest. The first draft of your causal loop diagram can generally be simplified in order to increase clarity. Typically you will want to redraw your model to make it as easy for others to interpret as possible.
Simulation & Modeling Week 3 Causal Loop Diagrams 44