Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
1) . that minimizes We will use three time series in our exploration. I have uploaded two time series into the homework folder in the coursework. In addition, you should generate a third some series based on the following formula: rt N (0, 2 + sin(t/20)), i.e., the return at time t is normally distributed with zero mean and standard deviation of 2 + sin(t/20) and the length of the sequence should be 1000 observations. We will compare the following methods: 1. Moving average with a window length of 20. 2. EMA where you will choose the best .
2 2 = + rt 3. ARCH model of order 4. That is, t 1 .
T 2 t=100 (zt,m
For each of the series your R script should: 1) Plot the original time series. 2) Plot zt,m for all the methods. 3) Comment on each of the methods, what can you observe. 4) For the third time series, you should also include the Oracle method, i.e., the one that knows the volatility accurately (note since you generated the sequence you know it.)