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URL: Publication_Bordonaro_Federico_Rediscovering_Spykman_Rimland_Geography_Peace_Foreign_Policy.html
Introduction
Since the 1980s, both the academic world and the analytical community in the field of international relations and political theory have shown a renewed interest for classical geopolitics. On one hand, leading scholars in strategic studies, such as Colin S. Gray and Geoffrey Sloan in Britain, Mackubin T. Owen and Francis Sempa in the U.S., have promoted a much needed rediscovering of classical authors. The above mentioned analysts have attempted to demonstrate that classical geopolitical thinking is still a valuable tool to read post-Cold War power relations, and that geography remains the most important factor in international relations, because it is "the most permanent" and - ultimately - "inescapable", notwithstanding the crucial changes in the relationship between man and the earth thanks to new military, transportation, and communication technologies. On the other hand, critical geopolitics has produced a number of in-depth studies which, together with accurate biographical works, have helped scholars to better understand the cultural origins, biases, and theoretical limitations of classical geopolitics. However, both "neo-classical" and "critical" thinkers have concentrated their efforts mostly on the works of Sir Halford J. Mackinder (Blouet 1987, 2004; Gray and Sloan 1999; Loughlin 1994; O Tuathail 1996), and to a lesser extent on the previously largely overlooked geopolitical thinking of Alfred T. Mahan (Sumida 1997, 1999). As a result, the theoretical and analytical work of Dutch-born American scholar Nicholas J. Spykman has been less accurately and less deeply reconsidered. Although Spykman has traditionally been recognised as one of the most important and influential geopolitical thinkers, at the same time he has very often been "reduced" to being the author of the "Rimland thesis", as opposed to Mackinder, who put emphasis on the strategic prize and role of the "Heartland". In addition, most of the articles and essays on classical geopolitics have in fact considered Spykman in light of Mackinders seminal work. In this brief paper, this author would like to highlight the richness of Spykmans thought, its originality and prescience. Moreover, I will attempt to show, albeit very succinctly, that Spykmans in-depth analysis of geographys political-strategic significance constitutes an excellent introduction to the methodology of geopolitics.
History
Sharing a characteristic that is proper of all serious geopolitical analysts, Spykman founded his method in history, and most importantly, in long-run history. All of the examples that Spykman introduced in his 1938 and 1939 articles were taken from history, instead than from mere theories. Just like Mahan before him, Spykman devoted a considerable part of his theoretical introduction to geopolitics to the effects of size of territory and location upon a states political and strategic history. The Dutch-American authors recognised that "size is not strength but potential strength", since geopolitics is a multi-factorial method of analysis (a fact widely accepted by modern authors such as Randall Collins or Franois Thual). Size is strength insofar as it is "equivalent to arable land and therefore to man power, and, reasoning from this premise, most land powers have in the past followed a policy of territorial expansion. Since the Industrial
Revolution, however, strength has become more and more identified with industrial strength. Raw material resources and industrial organization have therefore become the prerequisites of power whether by land or by sea. But size is still operative in the sense that the larger the area the greater the chances that it contains varying climatic ranges and varying topography, and therefore varied resources and economic possibilities" (Spykman 1938:32).
Two superpowers
The decades that followed Spykmans writings confirmed his views. In the industrial-technological era of the Cold War, the two superpowers were very large states: U.S. and USSR, while China was rapidly emerging as a new power. On the other hand, comparatively small countries with large industrial bases could still rank among the medium-sized powers, like Germany, Japan, France, the UK, or Israel, but they could certainly not compete with the giants for world domination. Therefore, what geopolitical analysis discovered to be true for the agrarian states turned out to be still theoretically valid for 20th centurys politics - the necessary changes having been made. Moreover, the extent, shape, and topography of Soviet territory proved once again a provider of strategic depth and defensive strength during the Second World War, as it frustrated the Third Reichs offensive under the Barbarossa Plan. He then speculated how territorial size and resources, when coupled with technological strength, would project a state - or an alliance of states - to the status of great power, and he predicted in 1938 that in fifty years, a confederation of European states might have joined the likely "quadrumvirate of world powers" formed by the U.S., the U.S.S.R., China, and India. He was, in this respect, strikingly prescient, and well ahead of his time.
Significance of location
Probably, the most interesting part of Spykmans theoretical geopolitics is the one devoted to the significance of location for a states power potential. "The location of a state may be described from the point of view of world-location, that is, with reference to the land masses and oceans of the world as a whole, or from the point of view of regional location, that is, with reference to the territory of other states and immediate surroundings. The former description will be in terms of latitude, longitude, altitude, and distance from the sea; the latter will be in terms of relations to surroundings areas, distances, lines of communication, and the nature of border territory" (Spykman 1938:40).
Geopolitical change
He then highlighted the crucial importance of geopolitical change, as history had changed the salience of certain areas and resources. Spykman noticed that "A complete description of the geographic location of a state will include [...] an analysis of the meaning" of the facts of location, since while the latter "do not change, the significance of such facts changes with every shift in the means of communication, in routes of communication, in the technique of war, and in the centers of world power, and the full meaning of a given location can be obtained only by considering the specific area in relation to two systems of reference: a geographic system of reference from which we derive the facts of location, and a historical system of reference by which we evaluate those facts".
The importance of such an insightful consideration could be hardly overstated. It demonstrates how much off the mark are the frequent charges of "determinism" and obsolescence against classical geopolitical thinking, while at the same time it helps rediscovering the "other" Spykman, i.e., the analyst of the geographical bases of power, who was writing on geopolitics years before his "Rimland thesis" became known.
Spykmans predictions
As a proof of Spykmans forecasting ability, one can quote the episodes reported by David Wilkinson, one of the few scholars to have devoted attention to Spykmans early works and biography. In 1942, during some of the hardest times in WWII, he almost caused a scandal as he publicly expressed his unconventional views about the desirable post-war American diplomacy. He was convinced that, once Germany and Japan had been defeated, they should had both been included into an anti-Soviet alliance, due to the fact that Moscow would be left in a too favourable position in Eurasia. He thus anticipated the end of the Soviet-Western alliance and the formation of a Western alliance against Moscow axed on the North-Atlantic. Such views were expressed by Spykman when the anti-Japanese and anti-German propaganda was at its heights in America and Washington was allied with the Soviets against the Tripartite Pact (Williamson 1985:83-86). Of course, not all of Spykmans predictions turned out to be true. In 1942, he incorrectly forecast that Britain would be a third force between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. after WWII, and he thought that Germany would survive as a great power instead of France (Williamson 1985:85). However, his track record remains impressive.
Rediscovered geography
Spykman also anticipated most of the themes of the so-called "offensive realism", a branch of neo-realism in IR theory that emphasises the great powers lust for territorial expansion and power maximisation as a means to security maximisation (see Mearsheimer 2001). Spykmans focus on geography as the most conditioning factor of world politics decisively separates his work from the body of IR theory. However, in the last decade, IR theory, and particularly offensive realism and neo-classical realism, seems to have rediscovered geography (Mearsheimer 2001; Mouritzen and Wivel 2005). The implications of the
geographical and ecological settings for human aggressiveness and expansionism have been also analysed by Bradley Thayer in his groundbreaking work on evolutionism and international relations (Thayer 2004). As a result, Spykmans works, and especially Americas Strategy and World Power may be seen as a precursor of todays new theoretical evolutions of realism.
Conclusion
The aim of this short paper has been to stimulate a fresh reading of Spykmans early writings on geopolitics, and especially of his 1938-1939 articles. Since geopolitics has been rediscovered in the West in the 1970s, Spykman has been almost always identified as the author of the "Rimland thesis". However, his contribution to geopolitical analysis has certainly not been limited to that. His intellectual relationship with Mackinder, Mahan, and German Geopolitiker is a fascinating and complex one, as it is his cultural formation as a conflict sociologist who specialised in Georg Simmels work. At a time when the world geopolitical struggle continues to unfold mainly in the Rimland (the Middle East, south Asia, and with less intensity in north-east Asia), Spykmans geopolitical writings deserve a careful reading also beyond the Rimland question.
Literature
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