Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Table of Contents
a complete guide to trading for a living
Chapter 1: Who is Oliver L. Velez Chapter 2: Velez Capital Management, LLC (VCM) Chapter 3: Moving Averages and How to Harness their Power Chapter 4: Reading the Language of the Market through its Bars Chapter 5: Oliver Velezs Market Law #1 Chapter 6: VCMs Three Main Time Frames Chapter 7: VCMs Three Minor Tome Frames Chapter 8: Putting it all Together Chapter 9: VCM Trading Examples Chapter 10: Trade as a Pro with VCM Chapter: 11: Your Next Step
Disclaimer
Copyright 2007 by Oliver L. Velez Published by Oliver L. Velez All rights covered Reproduction or translation of any part of this work beyond that permitted by section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act without the permission of the copyright owner is unlawful. Requests for permission or further information should be addressed to the Permissions Department at O.L. Velez Trading, Inc. Neither Oliver L. Velez nor Velez Capital Management, LLC is advising anyone to trade or use any system illustrated in this course. These are educational examples of science of system testing and development that Mr. Velez and Velez Capital Management, LLC want to share with you. None of the information illustrated in these examples is to be construed as offers to buy or sell commodities, stocks, or any other financial instrument. None of the information presented purports to be a complete statement of all material facts related to trading. Also, simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations; the results do not represent actual trading. Since many of the trades in this series have not been executed, the results may have under or over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that the systems, methods or ideas shown in this course will produce the results that are described or illustrated. This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that neither the author nor the publisher is engaged in rendering legal, accounting, or other professional services. If legal advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought. From a Declaration of Principles jointly adopted by a Committee of the American Bar Association and a Committee of Publishers. Active trading is an activity that possesses a high level of risk and may not be suitable for everyone.
An accessible, reliable course for the trader looking for profits in the competitive, dynamic world of trading. Each section of the book offers clear examples, concise and useful definitions of important terms, over 90 charts used to illustrate the challenges and opportunities of the market; and how you can take advantage of patterns. Written in the parlance of the day traders world, youll enjoy the experience of being taught trading skills by the best of the best.
Tools & Tactics for the Master Day Trader is designed to help active self-directed traders gain the knowledge and acquire the tools necessary to approach the markets with intelligence and a well thought out trading plan. This no-nonsense, easy read is meant to be referenced by traders every trading day and covers everything from battle-tested trading strategies to intuitive insights on psychology and discipline. Proving once again that the best teacher is experience, Tools and Tactics for the Master Day Trader will help any trader with the technical skills, market knowledge, and confidence needed to increase the odds of achieving more winning trades and capturing profits.
VCM
An Introduction to Velez Capital Management, LLC
Trade For Life a complete guide to trading for a living Velez Capital Management, LLC
www.vcmtrading.com
Who is VCM?
VCM is a New York City based private equity trading group which currently employs 120 traders to trade its account. VCM trains (breeds) its own traders via several training programs and recruits existing traders with a proven track record and several years of experience. VCM is looking to become a major force in the equity trading markets by building its trading team to 500 worldwide over the next 3 years. VCM currently has four offices around the globe, with two more coming soon: Moscow and Bogot, Columbia. Our profits and trading volume increased 700% last year, and we were a top 10 NYSE liquidity provider for NASDAQ. Our firm traded half a BILLION shares in February of 2006, a record for a firm our size, and currently averages each month close to 300 million shares.
High
High Close = 42
Open = 40
Open = 40 Low
Close = 38 Low
Bulls Win
Bears Win
Every individual bar represents a battle that was fought by two groups, the bulls and bears, the buyers and sellers. When the close is above the open, the bulls win, producing the color green. When the close is below the open, the bears win, producing the color red. How much each side wins is determined by how much green or red they produce. In other words, the wider the distance between the open and close, the greater the win. Quite naturally, the group winning the most bars is dominating the stock. Trading Tip: Most successful trades are usually in sync with the winning side.
Market Law # 1: During normal market environments, stocks and other tradable items cannot move in the same direction more than 3 to 5 bars in a row. Different ways to communicate the law:
1) After a 3 to 5 bar run (up or down) the market/stock tends to sharply reverse, creating a nice trading opportunity. 2) Neither the bulls nor the bears can win more than 5 battles (bars) in a row. After a 3 to 5 bar rally, the bears usually quickly regain control. After a 3 to 5 bar decline, the bulls usually quickly regain control. 3) Lastly, this law can be said this way: After 3 to 5 green bars in a row, the VCM Trader should look to take advantage of an upcoming series of red bars. After 3 to 5 red bars in a row, the VCM Trader should look to take advantage of an upcoming series of green bars.
1) 3-5 Bar Decline Stocks in strong up trends, as well as clearly defined sideways trends tend to rebound after a 3 to 5 bar decline. This tendency often sets up nice trading opportunities.
3-Bar Dip
4-Bar Dip
Trading Notes In each of the scenarios above, the VCM Trader would be looking for a tradable rebound to the upside, once the high of a prior bar has been taken out. How much of a rebound would depend on the answers to several key questions such as: a) is the 3-5 bar dip occurring in an up trend, down trend or sideways trend; b) are any of the most powerful reversal signs present; c) how far away is the nearest area of resistance; d) was there a volume surge that took place toward the end of the decline; e) where is the dip in relation to the 20ma; and f) is the current decline potentially bottoming at or around one of the key reversal times? The answers to all these questions are covered in the many trading concepts taught in future chapters and throughout our 5-day live trading labs.
2) 3-5 Bar Rally Stocks in strong down trends, as well as clearly defined sideways trends tend to back off after a 3 to 5 bar advance. This tendency often sets up nice trading opportunities. d20ma d20ma d20ma Short Short Short
3-Bar Rally
4-Bar Rally
5-Bar Rally
Trading Notes In each of the scenarios above, the VCM Trader would be looking for a tradable pullback to the downside, once the low of a prior bar has been taken out. How much of a pullback would depend on the answers to several key questions such as: a) is the 3-5 bar rally occurring in an up trend, down trend or sideways trend; b) are any of the most powerful reversal signs present; c) how far away is the nearest area of resistance; d) was there a volume surge that took place toward the end of the rally; e) where is the rally in relation to the 20ma; and f) is the current rally potentially topping at or around one of the key reversal times? The answers to all these questions are covered in the many trading concepts taught in future chapters and throughout our live 5-day trading labs.
VCM
The Three Major Charting Windows
VCM Quote: Wall Street never changes. The pockets change. The stocks change. But Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes. - Jessie Livermore
15-minute Chart This time frame will be used primarily for trend analysis and support and resistance reference points. While VCM Traders do takes trades on it from time, its use as a gauge of the stocks power and its overbought-ness or oversold-ness is unrivaled. With that being said, trades on the 15-minute chart do tend to be the cleanest and the truest. In a sense, for the professional trader earning a living via the markets, this time frame would be considered the core one, for longer term trades.
2)
5-minute Chart This time is the VCM Traders number one staple. If there was only one time frame with which to make a living, it would be this one. It perfectly sits between the 15-minute, which can be a bit to long, and the 2minute, which can be a bit too noisy at times. The patterns we trade at VCM appear frequently enough in the 5-minute window to keep us active, yet infrequently enough to prevent us from over trading. This is the one, the time frame to master. 2-minute Chart This fast moving chart is a god-send when the market is not producing clear signals on the other two time frames. Its also useful if and when the entry and/or exit points dictated by the 5-minute or 15-minute chart are too far away or unclear. Dropping down to the 2-minute chart for a finer entry or exit will usually provide the alternative. We call this taking an x-ray, or looking inside the stock.
3)
15-minute Chart
a complete guide to trading for a living
The 15-minute Chart should always have the s20ma and the and s200ma displayed. Trading Tip: VCM Traders look to go long, when the r20m is above the 200ma. They look to go short when the d20ma is below the 200ma. VCM Traders would look to go long in the are of the circles. Youll understand each one soon enough.
20ma
Gap Reversal
200ma
MPS
GBR on MPS
This time frame can really deliver some very healthy profits. The only caveat is that plays taken on it tend to last for 30-minutes to 1-hour. The more active traders will find it hard to be patient unless multiple plays are being managed simultaneously. This time frame is great for S&R analysis.
The 5-minute Chart should always have the s20ma and the and s200ma displayed. Trading Tip: VCM Traders look to go long, when the r20m is above the 200ma. They look to go short when the d20ma is below the 200ma.
20ma
VCM Traders would look to go long at or near the r20ma. See Circles.
200ma
The 5-minute Chart is by far the most traded time for VCM Traders. It sits nicely between the 15minute, which can be a bit slow, and the 2-minute, which can at times be a bit too noisy. Charts Courtesy of Realtick.
20ma The 2-minute Chart should always have the s20ma and the s200ma displayed. Trading Tip: VCM Traders look to go long, when the r20m is above the 200ma. They look to go short when the d20ma is below the 200ma.
The 2-minute chart is actively used to refine entry and exit points. It offers the deepest insight and smallest risk of the three time frames we actively trade. Stop outs can be frequent in this time frame, but scalper traders will always be well served here.
VCM
A Minor Charting Window
VCM Quote: Wall Street never changes. The pockets change. The stocks change. But Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes. - Jessie Livermore
200ma During flat markets, VCM Traders drop down to the 1-minute chart to play the bidding and offering game. They buy in a range below the 20ma and sell in a range above the 20ma. Offer/Sell Zone
Break
20ma
Trading Tip: Once the 20ma halts the price decline, resistance is often broken.
The Powerful 20 MA
a complete guide to trading for a living
1)
20 Period Simple Moving Average (20ma) The 20ma is so important to VCM Traders that no chart is ever studied or viewed without it. Thats because its power and reliability is unrivaled. No chart is a chart unless it is accompanied by this all-important technical indicator. We use it on every time frame or chart we look at. Here are the most important things to know about the 20ma and its proper use: a) Trade with the 20ma - Most of your trades should be in sync with the 20ma. If the 20ma is rising in a smooth fashion, your focus should almost always be long. Conversely, if the 20ma is declining in a smooth fashion, your focus should almost always be short. If the 20ma is flat (f20ma), your focus should be to scalp with the VCM bid and offer approach. b) Use as support & Resistance If and when the 20ma is rising, it will serve as strong support. If the 20ma is declining, it will serve as strong overhead resistance. Look for buys at or near a r20ma. Look for sells/shorts at or near a d20ma. c) Use as a median line When a stock is consolidating in a sideways pattern, the 20ma will be flat and usually positioned right in the middle of the sideways trend. If and when this is the case, bidding for stock in a range below the f20ma and offering/shorting stock in a range above the f20ma is the game to play. d) Use as a magnet Stocks cannot remain extended too far above or below the 20ma. If and when stocks get too far, a violent snap back is eminent. This is when the VCM Trader can intelligently look to take advantage of a counter trend move .
Trading Tip: Literally, a VCM Trader can use the 20ma to earn his entire livelihood in the market.
The picture of power is made up of the following: 1 Rising Stock, making higher highs and lows; 2 Smooth Rising 20ma 3 Smooth Rising 40ma 4 Even Space between 20ma & 40ma 40ma The 20ma begins to contain the price here.
20ma
The Picture of Power 1-Rising Stock 2-Rising 20ma 3-Rising 40ma 4-Even Space 4 5 20ma 40ma
2 1
VCM Trading Tactics A- Red Bar Ignored (RBI) 1- Green Bar Reversal (GBR) 2- Green Bar Reversal (GBR) 3- Bullish Pause Play (BPP) 4- Red Bar Ignored (RBI) 5- Green Bar Reversal (GBR)
Trading Tip: Make sure all VCM Trading Tactics occur at strong support locations
Trading Tip:
Holding on to all or part of your trade as long as the stock remains above the 20ma is a very effective way of maximizing your gains. What VCM Traders do is sell part on momentum rallies, and add on RBIs, GBRs and BOPs. See circles.
CA puts in top
Low Odds BS
20ma
Note: VCM Traders usually dont carry micro trades over night.
SS at d20ma
Breakdown
20ma
Trading Tip:
Holding on to all or part of your trade as long as the stock remains below the 20ma is a very effective way to maximize your gains. However, once bases start to form toward the end of the day, its time to go home. What VCM Traders do is cover part on momentum drops, and add on GBIs, BDPs and RBRs. See lines. Cover all
Trading Tip:
Holding on to all or part of your trade as long as the stock remains below the 20ma is a very effective way to maximize your gains. However, once larger than normal green bars begin to form, the party is over. What VCM Traders do is cover part on momentum drops, and add on GBIs, BDPs and RBRs. See lines.
SS
5-Min Downtrend
a complete guide to trading for a living
2 3
40ma 20ma
test
Chart Courtesy of Realtick
2-min Downtrend
a complete guide to trading for a living
200ma
20ma
Come back sometime after the course to name these VCM trades
200 Period Simple Moving Average (200ma) The 200ma is so universally watched, in all time frames, that for all practical purposes, it has become a self-fulfilling prophesy. So rarely do stocks fail to obey (get halted by) the 200ma that weve given it the highest nick-name of all, God. Its power, force, and reliability are so great, that it truly is god-like. We use the 200ma on all micro time frames (1-, 2-, 5-, and 15minute charts). Here are a few things that you must keep in mind regarding this mighty moving average: a) Flatness is king: - While the 20ma is most powerful when it is rising and declining (trending), the 200ma is most powerful when it is flat (trend-less). b) Use as support Whenever a stock declines to a flat 200ma, it will almost always experience some form of rebound. If the rare cases in which it does not rebound, the stock is almost certain to at least stop (halt its decent) for a while. c) Use as resistance Whenever a stock rallies to a flat, overhead 200ma, it will
almost always experience some form of retracement back down. If the rare cases in which it does not experience a reversal back down, the stock is almost certain to at least stop (halt its rally) for a while.
d) Use as a magnet If a stock and its 20ma get too far above or below the 200ma, a major reversal is usually at hand. This is when the VCM Trader can look to take advantage of a counter trend move. In other words, its this scenario that allows for intelligently going against the prevailing trend.
Trading Tip: VCM Traders know that 200ma plays call for bigger positions
4 1
200ma
Trading Notes
1- 200ma serves as major support near a prior low and a prior high. 2- Climactic advance begins its decline with a GBI Set-up. 3- GBI at the 50% retracement level, signals another leg to the down side. 4- GBR w/ a BT right at major 200ma and price support 5- VCM Buy Set-up on major price and 200ma support 6- 123 BO really gets going on a RBI Set-up.
Trading Criteria
1 20ma and 200ma are far apart 2 Stock is far below the 20ma 3 Stock is at or near the 200ma 4 Buy set-up occurs near a Reversal Time
Sell Area
3
20ma
2 h 1
Buy
The above chart offers the OLV Trader multiple buy opportunities: 1) Gap Plus (gap on the 200ma and major price support); 2) Buy Set-up at the r20ma; 3) RBI (Red Bar Ignored). Charts Courtesy of Realtick.
200ma
A flat overhead 200-period MA often serves as major resistance. Note how the stock started ignoring its 20-period MA around mid-day. What do you notice now?
Charts Courtesy of Realtick.
200ma
A flat overhead 200-period MA often serves as major resistance. Note how the stock started obeying the 20ma mid morning. What do you suspect is the next move?
Charts Courtesy of VCM Trader Pro.
Intra-day Buy Criteria 1. r20ma 2. r20ma > 200ma Buy all PBSs & PBOs
Stock ignores the 20ma
Trading Tip: Use stops at red lines or use a trailing stop based on the r20ma
Wide Distance*
Buy Buy
20ma
Buy
20ma captures the price
200ma
VCM
VCM
NY Prop Group