600%

Market Cycles
Bull

Recovery
500%

Bear
400%

10000
300%
% change in S&P Composite

1000
S&P 500 ‐ Log Scale
200%
100%

100
140
69

33

14

14

33

15

18

21

20

28

17
6

3
0%

16

31

24

43

16

18

21

41

56

23

11

39

14

29

19

21
10

70

58

20
12

58
0

164

267

109

5
0
S&P

10
1871 1872‐1882 1903‐ 1907‐ 1987‐
1957 to 61 2002‐07
‐100%

1906 1909 1962‐66 1966‐68 1970‐74 1990

1974 ‐1982 1982‐87 1990‐2000  2007 ‐

1885‐1902 1921‐1929 1932‐1956

1
‐200%

Months

Notes Line represents S&P Composite Line drawn to Log Scale from 1902 to present. (Right vertical axis)
Breadth of Bar is in months. (Horizontal axis)
From Professor Shillers Data.
Bear Market is defined as 20% or more decline.
Recovery Period represents time and % change needed to get back to pre-bear market level.