Period

Data
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

Mean
103.81
106.79
101.24
100.56
92.45
99.11
94.23
156.53
153.42
150.34
148.32
141.67
151.49
145.43
151.69
154.74
144.38
149.89
143.67
145.62

103.81
105.3
103.9466667
103.1
100.97
100.66
99.74142857
106.84
112.0155556
115.848
118.8
120.7058333
123.0738462
124.6707143
126.472
128.23875
129.1882353
130.3383333
131.04
131.769

Error

Absolute Error

Absolute Percentage Error

2.98
-4.06
-3.38667
-10.65
-1.86
-6.43
56.78857
46.58
38.32444
32.472
22.87
30.78417
22.35615
27.01929
28.268
16.14125
20.70176
13.33167
14.58

2.98
4.06
3.386666667
10.65
1.86
6.43
56.78857143
46.58
38.32444444
32.472
22.87
30.78416667
22.35615385
27.01928571
28.268
16.14125
20.70176471
13.33166667
14.58

2.790523457
4.01027262
3.367806948
11.5197404
1.876702654
6.823729173
36.27967254
30.36110025
25.49184811
21.89320388
16.14314957
20.32092327
15.37244987
17.81217332
18.26806256
11.1796994
13.81130476
9.279367068
10.01236094

Total

346.8106

399.5839701

276.6140908

Mean Error

18.25319

Mean Absolute Error

21.03073527

Mean Absolute Percentage Error

14.55863636

3 Months Moving Average Errors

Time
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Observed Value
205
145
190
193.5
300
185
160
140
230
275
225

Forecast
Forecast
5 month
3 month Moving Moving
Average
Average

180
176.1666667
227.8333333
226.1666667
215
161.6666667
176.6666667
215
243.3333333

Absolute
Error

Error

206.7
202.7
205.7
195.7
203
198
206

Mean Error

13.5
123.8333333
-42.8333333
-66.1666667
-75
68.33333333
98.33333333
10

13.5
123.833333
42.8333333
66.1666667
75
68.3333333
98.3333333
10

Absolute
Percentage
Error

6.976744186
41.27777778
23.15315315
41.35416667
53.57142857
29.71014493
35.75757576
4.444444444

16.25

0.294053364
Mean Absulute
Error
Mean Absulute
Percentage
Error

62.25

29.53067944

5 Months Moving Average Errors

Absulute
Error

Error

-21.7
-42.7
-65.7
34.3
72
27

21.7
42.7
65.7
34.3
72
27

Linear Regession

Absolute
Percentage
Error

11.72972973
26.6875
46.92857143
14.91304348
26.18181818
12
231.3

0.533333

43.9

23.0734438

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

17
22
18
27
14
18
20
25

4-period weighted moving average for period 9

21

three-month moving average forecasting method.

21

0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4