RENEWABLE ENERGY: SHOULD WE GO FOR IT?

The Arguments over Energy are Never-Ending By: Davis Vaughan

OIL AND PETROLEUM: A TOPIC OF MAJOR DEBATE

For the past half century and even beyond that, the debate on oil has become an increasingly large piece of conflict around the world. Do we stay with oil and petroleum? Or do we move towards something more renewable like solar and wind energy? To many, the practical answer is not clear, and relies on a number of factors like cost, environmental hazards, and time. One thing we do know, however, is that we need energy. For without it, the world today will not function and our economies will collapse.

SO WHATS UP WITH OIL?

According to Amory Lovins, a blogger on The Atlantic, the problem with oil lies in the money. Thats the big story:, Lovin writes, like whale oil in the 1860s, oil has become uncompetitive even at low prices, long before becoming unavailable even at high prices. This is what it all boils down to. Oil is becoming an economically unprofitable business on its own. Now factor in environmental costs that are never included and oil looks like a losing battle. But what would be our alternative...?

AHH THE SWEET SMELL OF GREEN ENERGY

Lets talk renewable energy. Solar power, wind energy, hydroelectricity, and nuclear energy are all potential sources for renewable energy to replace fossil fuels. Now, alone none of these sources are anywhere near enough, but, used in combination with each other, they create an incredible complex. Lovins delivers a powerful point with his lengthy but welldelivered outline of a renewable plan in response to Charles Manns article What If We Never Run Out of Oil?.

Rather, a diverse portfolio of wind and photovoltaics (a) sited in different places so they experience different conditions and (b) of different kinds (sunny calm days are bad for wind but good for solar) is integrated with (c) the many other kinds of renewables, nearly all of which are "dispatchable" (available whenever needed), with (d) unobtrusively flexible demand, and with (e) distributed storage, mainly icestorage air-conditioning and smart bidirectional electric-car charging. If necessary, (f) existing, especially fastresponding, gas-fired generators can fill any gaps, but that's not always necessary.

CHEAP? GREEN ISNT CHEAP!

Lovins makes an argument that the cost of renewables is less than the cost of fossil fuels. In Manns reply to Lovins, No, Really: Were Going to Keep Burning Oiland Lots of It, he fights back with guns blazing, pulling numbers from the most recent EIA (Energy Information Administration) estimate that conclude that in 2018: -Natural-gas cost: $67.10/MWh -Wind cost: $86.60/MWh -Solar photovoltaic cost: $144.30/MWh Mann concedes that this type of estimate is difficult to make, but sticks to his position that renewables are in fact not cheaper than fossil fuels. I would draw attention to the fact that these numbers do not include environmental costs, especially not for the long term. With these costs included, there would be a much greater natural-gas cost.

WHAT ELSE ABOUT COST?

Personally, I would also add that there are many types of solar cell research currently being done. One of these being third generation photovoltaic cells that I doubt Mann took into account. The efficiency of solar energy has the potential to be incredibly increased through the use of this technology, which would allow for it to be more cost efficient.

ENVIRONMENTAL GROWTH
So lets ignore money for just a minute here. What about the environment? Well, Lovins uses Germany as a prime example of how improvements have been made to keep carbon emissions down. Germany alone in 2012 was 23% renewable energy powered (which Lovins points out is double the percentage from six years ago), and even peaked at the 70% renewable mark for a brief period this year. Lovins finishes by claiming, Germanys 35-percent-renewable power goal for 2020 is ahead of schedule, and eight countries and 41 cities 100-percent-renewable-power goals look both practical and profitable.

BUT IS IT REALLY..GROWTH?
Lovinss remarks on Germany were made in response to Manns original article that commented on how having mostly renewable electricity would cause factory shutdowns. Again, in Manns response to Lovin, he combats his point. He concedes that, yes, renewables have increased in Germany over the past decade, but also adds that, since 2011Germany has significantly increased its reliance on coal. Why the increase? Unfortunately, it seems that the reason once again has to do with the cost of solar and wind energy, at least according to Mann.

AUDIENCE IS EVERYTHING
The interesting thing about the audiences of these two sources is that they will be the same people. Anyone who is interested in renewable energy will most likely look at both sources if he/she looks at one of them. Anyone could be the average energy user, a big business owner looking to see how the switch might affect his company, or even an environmentalist looking for options and different opinions on the idea of renewable energy.

TH E SE SOU RCES+M Y PROJ E CT=?

So what did these sources teach me? The fact that they were both directly responding to each other was a great help since they could point out exactly what they thought was the fault of the other. Something that I am going to focus on from here on out will be the cost of changing to renewable energy and what that might mean to the economy, small and big businesses, and the average consumer. I will also search for cost estimates for what the most efficient type of each renewable energy type might produce to determine how effective they might be.