trimestres

Ao 1

IV
I

III

14

IV
I

10

III

16

IV
I

12

III

22

IV

III
IV

9
7

II

II

3
5

II

Ao 5

4
4

II

Ao 4

III

Ao 3

Serie desestacionalizada

II

Ao 2

Y/TC

10
13
18
35

0.82079965

2.43664821

0.6458151

1.54843082

3.25

1.23076923

0.99627475

4.01495671

3.5

3.875

1.29032258

1.5371105

3.25285658

4.25

4.5

0.88888889

0.82079965

4.87329643

4.75

5.875

0.68085106

0.6458151

6.19372326

6.875

0.87272727

0.99627475

6.02243506

6.75

6.875

2.03636364

1.5371105

9.10799842

7.5

0.4

0.82079965

3.65497232

8.25

0.60606061

0.6458151

7.74215408

8.5

9.25

1.08108108

0.99627475

10.0373918

10

10.25

1.56097561

1.5371105

10.4091411

10.5

10.75

0.8372093

0.82079965

10.964917

11

11.75

0.59574468

0.6458151

10.8390157

12.5

12.625

0.95049505

0.99627475

12.0448701

12.75

13.5

1.62962963

1.5371105

14.3125689

14.25

15

0.66666667

0.82079965

12.1832411

15.75

17.375

0.74820144

0.6458151

20.1296006

0.99627475

18.0673052

1.5371105

22.7699961

19

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin
0.93520503
mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin
0.87460845 R^2
R^2 ajustado 0.86764225
Error tpico
2.15786165
Observaciones
20
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Valor crtico de F
Regresin
1 584.608462 584.608462 125.550343 1.5091E-09
Residuos
18 83.8146043
4.6563669
Total
19 668.423066

Intercepcin
X

Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

-0.31461759 1.00239461
-0.313866 0.75723114 -2.42057053
0.93760891 0.08367829 11.2049249 1.5091E-09 0.76180736

Y=-0,314+0,937X
Pronstico ao 6
Trimestre
X
1
2
3
4

Y
21
22
23
24

19.3751695
20.3127784
21.2503873
22.1879963

Iestacional
pronstico
0.82079965 15.9031324
0.6458151
13.118299
0.99627475 21.1712244
1.5371105
34.105402

Y
-2
-1
0
1
2

42
45.3
44
50.6
50.2

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin
0.89789089
mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin
0.80620805 R^2
R^2 ajustado 0.74161074
Error tpico
1.94242117
Observaciones
5

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Valor crtico de F
Regresin
1
47.089
47.089 12.4805195 0.03856244
Residuos
3
11.319
3.773
Total
4
58.408

Intercepcin
X

Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

46.42 0.86867716 53.4375743 1.4434E-05 43.6554816
2.17 0.61424751 3.53277787 0.03856244 0.21519029

X
1
2

Ao

t1

t2

0.88888889

6
7

t3

t4

1.23076923

1.29032258

0.68085106

0.87272727

2.03636364

0.4

0.60606061

1.08108108

1.56097561

0.8372093

0.59574468

0.95049505

1.62962963

0.66666667

0.74820144

0.79758829

0.62755212

0.96810113

1.49364261

Indices estacionales
0.82079965

0.6458151

0.99627475

1.5371105

10
11
12 40
13

35
30

14 25
15 20
15

16
17
18
19
20

10
5
0
1

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Valor crtico de F

Superior 95% Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%

1.79133535 -2.42057053 1.79133535
1.11341046 0.76180736 1.11341046

Valor crtico de F

Superior 95% Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0%

49.1845184 43.6554816 49.1845184
4.12480971 0.21519029 4.12480971

3.88688414
4

data
PM
desestacionalizada

20