Guideline for Security Analysis 1) Fundamental Analysis (DCF or FCCF model) (1) Macroeconomic analysis a) Economic growth with

GDP trends ) !rend or change of economic condition with interest rate" inflation" M1 or M#$ (enough use 1 %aria le) (#) &ndustry Analysis a) !otal num er of com'any in the same industry (1 or # digit industry classification (if # digit industry classification less than 1( use 1 digit industry classification) ased on the &ndonesian Stoc) Mar)et classification) during * years$ ) Change and trend of com'etition of the industry during * years with mar)et ca'itali+ation" total assets" or sales$(enough use one %aria le) (,) Com'any analysis a) Com'etiti%e analysis ased on the fact you get from industry analysis and the -ualitati%e analysis of the com'any (management team" %ision" mar)eting 'lan" etc)$ ) Past * years E.&! (if E.&! is negati%e" use Sales) trend c) .ased on macro economic analysis" industry analysis and a) and ) determine the growth stage of the com'any$ d) and estimate E.&! ne/t year(s) (&f you use sta le growth model 0ust one year" ut if you use # stage or , stage growth model until n11 year)

e) Estimate di%idend 'ayout ratio" retention ratio" and return on e-uity ased on historical data in financial re'ort$ f) Estimate (forecast) future di%idend or free cash flow to the e-uity$

g) Estimate cost of the e-uity using mar)et model (, year monthly data)$ Determine the future cost of e-uity ased on the 'oint c)$ h) Find the %alue of each share2s %alue of the com'any$

#) 3elati%e Analysis (1) Choose the enchmar) of relati%e analysis ( PE" PE3" Mar)et to .oo) ratio" !o in2s 4" etc) (enough use one ratio)

(#) Calculate the relati%e ratio of the com'any and all of the com'any in the same industry$ (,) Ma)e gra'h of the ratio$ (5) Find the mean and standard de%iation" and determine o%er or under %alue of your com'any$

,) Ma)e decision .ased on stoc) 'rice on the mar)et today and your relati%e 6 fundamental analysis" determine whether you suggest to uy or sell or hold that com'any2s stoc)$