Power Sector Overview: Demand, Supply Options and the Role of Renewable Energies

Nay Pyi Taw

1-11-2012

Brief Introduction to The Republic of Union of Myanmar

Area of Country 261, 319 sq-mile Population States (1) Kachin (2) Kayah (3) Kayin (4) Chin (5) Mon (6) Rakhaing (7) Shan around 59.78 million
Sagaing Kachin

The country consists of

Regions (1) Saggaing (2) Tanintharyi (3) Bago (4) Magway (5) Mandalay (6) Yangon (7) Ayeyarwaddy
Ayeyarwaddy Rakhaing Chin Mandalay Magway Bago Yangon

Shan

Kayar

Kayin

Mon

Tanintharyi

Introduction
After change in constitutional structure, Myanmar has been awakening as a country with reforms not only in strategic and tactic approaches, also the environmental and technological issues included. The power sector is playing critical role in the development of the country. Then, insufficient supply of electricity in the last summer highlighted the needs of proper and concrete Power Development Plan and also leads a change in Energy Policy. 3

Policies
1. To employ the available energy resources in power generation for the sufficient supply of electricity. 2. To promote the effective and efficient use of electricity for future energy sufficiency, reserves and sustainability in our nation. 3. To conduct the reliable power quality to be supplied safely. 4. To enhance the electricity distribution system to be developed in accordance with the advance technologies. 5. To adopt the environment-friendly ways in electricity generation, transmission and distribution. 6. To encourage the expansion of power transmission and distribution throughout the country and the Public-Private-Participation in each sector.
4

Objectives
1. In order to transmit the generated power, increased in the period of fifth five-year plan, through Myanmar Power System to Regions and States, the Transmission Lines and Primary Substations are to be implemented and also the Distribution Plans for electricity supply to the Industries and Public are to be worked out. 2. To provide the technical know-how and policy support to the local people with their cooperation and participation in using alternative energy such as bio-mass in rural areas, far from the National Grid. 3. To meet the electricity demand for the areas, where electricity through the National Grid is not accessible, are to be supplied by Mini Hydro and Diesel Generators.
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Objectives(cond.)
4. In order to be reliable the quality of Myanmar Power System which is conducted for generation, transmission, distribution and

consumption of electric power and to supply the electricity with the least of power interruption and loss at the Standard Voltage Level, our skillful staffs shall carry out by getting technical know-how from abroad. 5. To fulfill the power demand of Myanmar, not only Hydro Power Generation and also Gas Turbine Power Plants are to be in operation, and Wind Power and Solar Power Plants are economically and widely constructed to reinforce the power supply.
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Electricity Supply to Consumer

HPGE (MOEP ) MEPE (MOEP ) MEPE (MOEP ) ESE (MOEP ) YESB (MOEP )

JV/IPP

Generation

Transmission

Distribution
End User

Hydro Coal Gas Diesel

500 kV (future) 230 kV 132 kV 66 kV

33 kV 11 kV 0.4 kV

Installed Capacity in 2012

Grid System Isolated (MW) (MW) Installed Capacity 3,494.90 100.08 Hydroelectric 2,660.00 33.34 Gas 714.90 Coal 120.00 Diesel 63.02 Bio Mass 3.72
3.34% 19.89% 74.92% 1.75% 0.10%

Total (MW) (%) 3,594.98 100.00% 2,693.34 74.92% 714.90 19.89% 120.00 3.34% 63.02 1.75% 3.72 0.10%

Hydroelectric

Gas

Coal

Diesel

Bio Mass 8

Generation Capacity in 2010-2011

Grid System Isolated (MWH) (MWH) Generation Capacity 8,548.37 76.40 Hydroelectric 6,144.88 43.65 Gas/Steam 2,012.02 Coal 391.47 Diesel 32.75
4.54% 0.38%

Total (MWH) (%) 8,624.77 100.00% 6,188.53 71.75% 2,012.02 23.33% 391.47 4.54% 32.75 0.38%

23.33% 71.75%

Hydroelectric

Gas/Steam

Coal

Diesel
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Yearly Power Generation from (1988-89) to (2011-12)

Generated Unit (GWh) 2226.45 3006-60 4130.31 5117.64 5608.24 6621.76
2011-12

GWh

Year 1988-89 1992-93 1996-97 2000-01 2004-05 2008-09 2011-12

12000 10338 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 222 6

10338.08
198889 199293 199697 200001 200405 200809

Yr

10

Monthly Peak Generation (MW)

Monthly Peak Generation (MW)
1800 1500 1200 900 600

Monthly Peak Generation growth (2006 ~ 2012)

Peak Generation in May declines because of the low water level of reservoirs.
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April July October January April July October January April July October January April July October January April July October January April July October January April July
Monthly Peak Generation (MW)

Yearly Peak Generation Growth (2006 ~ 2012)

Yearly Peak Generation (MW)
1750 1500 1250 1000 750 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1588 1379 1061 1129

1640

996

1004

Yearly Peak Generation (MW)

As New Large Power Plants have commissioned in 2011 then the peak generation become 50 % higher than 2009
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Location of Existing Power Plants

Thaphanseik 30 MW Yeywa 790MW Kinda 56 MW Mone 75MW KyeeOhnKyeeWa 74MW Man 36.9 MW

Tapein 240MW Shweli-1 600MW Sedawgyi 25MW

Kyunchaung 54.3 MW

Zawgyi-2 12MW Zawgyi-1 18MW Tigyit KengTawng 54MW 120MW

Sr No .

Hydro Power Plant Gas Power Plant Steam Power Plant

Type of Power Plant Numb er

Paunglaung Bluchaung-1 28MW 280MW

Installed Capacity (MW)

1. 2.

Hydro Power Gas & Steam Total

19 11 30

2660.0 834.9 3494.9

Bluchaung-2 168MW Khapau ng Kun 30MW Myanaun 60MW g 34.7MW Yenwe Shwek 25MW yin Zaungt 75MW u Hlawga 20MW Thaket 154.2MW a 92 MW Ywama Thaton 70.3MW 50.95MW Mawlamyain Ahlone g 154.2MW 12MW 13

Shwetaung 55.35MW

National Grid System

In our National Grid System, there are 30 Nos. of Generating Power Stations, ie (19) Hydropower Station, (1) Coal Fire Power Plant, (10) Gas Turbine (including 4 Combined Cycle in Yangon). The major electric power stations feed electricity into the National Grid System with 230 kV, 132 kV and 66 kV transmission lines and substations.
Existing Transmission Lines
Voltage (kV) 230 132 66 Total Nos. of Line 46 42 138 226 Length miles 1,922.68 1,412.33 2,247.75 5,582.76 km 3,095.52 2,273.85 3,618.87 8,988.24

Existing Substations
Voltage (kV) 230 132 66 Total Nos. of Substation 30 25 130 185 Capacity (MVA) 3,760 1,322.5 1,975.5 7,058.0
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Distribution System and Electrification Ratio

The National Grid System connect with the Distribution System via 33 kV, 11 kV and 6.6 kV distribution lines and substations.
Existing Distribution Lines & Substations
Voltage (kV) 33 11 6.6 Total Length miles 4,446.91 7,990.39 869.28 13,306.58 km 7,115.06 12,784.62 1,390.85 21,290.53 Capacity (MVA) 3,865.64 3,805.68 1,465.44 9,136.76

Electrification Ratio
Population Numbers of Household Electrified Household Percentage 59.78 million 8.91 million 2.39 million 27 %
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GDP & Population Growth Rate of States and Divisions (Ref: Statistical Year Book 2010)
National GDP Growth Rate: 11%
Kachin Kayah Kayin Chin Mon Rakhaing Shan 6.9 6.2 8.1 7.3 10.3 12.6 8.8 States GDP Population 1.26 1.44 1.19 1.63 0.99 1.07 1.16 Divisions Sagaing Tanintharyi Bago Magway Mandalay Ayeyarwaddy Yangon GDP 7.3 7.7 11.1 6.2 10.3 6.7 16.2 Population 0.95 1.34 1.07 1.05 1.08 1.12 1.15

National Population Growth Rate: 1.2%

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GDP & Population Growth Rate of States and Divisions (Ref: Statistical Year Book 2010)
In 10 years period, from (2001-02) to (2011-12), the economy of country reflected with the average GDP of 11%. The rate of change of Electricity Demand related to GDP is 1.4 times (Elasticity Factor). Electricity Demand was increased 2 times than that occurred in past 10 years period.

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Short Term Demand Forecasting for (2010-2016)

The maximum demand growth rate is around 15% from 2010 to 2012. The maximum demand forecasting of summer time for the year 2013 to 2016 are as follows:

Sr No 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Demand (MW) 1371 1588 1850 2128 2447 2814 3236

Increased Percentage 15.8% 16.49% 15% 15% 15% 15%

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Under Construction Hydro Power Plants during Short Term Plan

MW

Sr No . 1.

Name of Power Plant Shweli-1 (purchasing No-4 machine) Shibwenge Phyuu Thautyaekhaut-2 Nancho Bluchaung Upper Bluchaung Upper Paunglaung

Executing Agency JV

Commissioning step by step Total Installed 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015Capacity 2013 2014 2015 2016 100 100 -

2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.

CPI MOEP Golden Energy MOEP Future Energy New Energy Oasis MOEP

99 40 120 40 52 29 140

99 40 120 40 52 29 140

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Under Construction Gas and Combined Cycle Power Plants from (2012-13) to (2015-2016)
Sr Locati No on . Company Name Installe d Capaci ty (MW) 530 50 50 240 120 500
Project Commissioning

2013

2014

2015

2016 15 2 16 4
20

1.

Hlawg a

Hydro Lancang(China) Zeya & Associates Myanshwepyi EGATi (Thailand)

50 50 120 100 -

126 120 20 168

252 168

Ywam 2. a

3. Ahlone Toyo Thai (Thailand) Busan Korea Thaket Biotechnology Co., 4. a (Korea)

Short Term Plan for Transmission Lines and Substations

Transmission Lines
Lines Length (mile) 263 2363 105 1343 1146 2951 1952 10,123

Substations
Number of Substati ons 3 26 10 70 148 2752 3,009 Installed Capacity (MVA) 1500 2700 720 1162 979 629 7,690
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Voltage (kV) 500 230 132 66 33 11 0.4 Total

Number of Lines 2 29 3 30 64

Voltage (kV) 500 230 132 66 33 11 Total

Long Term Demand Forecasting

Condition after Project Term Expecte d Populati on (million) Power Demand Expected Consumptio n per one person (kWh) Expected Consumptio n per one household (%)

Project Term

(MW)

(GWh)

Yr 2011-12 Existing Condition From Yr (201213) To Yr (2015-16) From Yr (201617) To Yr (2020-21) From Yr (202122)

60.44

1,806

10,444

173

27%

63.14

3,078

17,797

282

34%

66.69

5,686

32,874

493

45%

70.45

10,400

60,132

854

60%

22

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

Electricity Demand Curve in MW (2012 ~ 2031)

Growth rate of Population 1.1%, of GDP 10.5%, of Electricity 13%
23

2030

20000 19000 18000 17000 16000 15000 14000 13000 12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000

2155

2426

2732

3078

3477

3929

4442

5025

5686

6416

7244

8167

9214

10400

11747

13274

15009

Electricity Demand (MW)

16978

19216

Long Term Demand Forecasting and New Constructed Installed Capacity

MW
25000 24981 22072 20000 19511 17257 15000 Reserve Capacity 16978 15271 13521 11978 10617 9417 8341 5108 5775 6532 7392 5686 6416 7244 8167 9214 11747 10400 15009 13274 19216

Required Capacity
10000

Capacity to Expend

5000

4520

Existing Installed Capacity 2216 2216 2216 2216 2216 2216 2216 2216 2216 2216 2216 2216 2216 2216 2216
0 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31

3477 3929

4442

5025

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Long Term Plan to be Constructed Hydropower Plants

Sr No . Power Plants Name Constructed Total Company Installed Name Capacity MOEP MOEP MOEP MOEP MOEP Total 10 111 51 280 1050 1502 10 162 280 Projects Commissioning Step 2016- 201817 19 10 111 51 280 1050 1050 201920 202021

1. Ann 2. Thahtay 3. Upper Kengteng 4. Upper Yeywa 5. Shweli-3

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Transmission Lines and Substation (Future Plan)

In order to reinforce the present National Grid System and to facilitate power transmission from new generating stations to National Grid System, Ministry of Electric Power has a long term plan of 131 Transmission Lines and 76 Substations for future.
Future Plan of Transmission Lines
Voltage (kV) 500 230 132 66 Total Nos. of Line 6 80 12 33 131 Length mile 1,693.0 5,894.0 410.5 1,222.1 9,219.6 km 2724.04 9483.45 660.49 1966.36 14,834.34

Future Plan of Substations

Voltage (kV) 500 230 132 66 Total Nos. of Substation 10 25 10 31 76 Capacity (MVA) 5,000 2,360 675 340 8,375

Renewable Energy Resources

Renewable Energy Resources

Biofuels Geothermal

Hydro

Solar Wind

Tidal

Solar Energy
Myanmar is situated in the south eastern part of the Asian continent. It enjoys abundant sun shine all year round, especially in the Central Myanmar Dry Zone Area. Similarly as in wind energy, to utilize solar as a substitute in place of conventional energy sources, more research and development work need to be carried out. The cooler, dry season lasts from November to April and the hotter, wet season from May to October. Sunshine is plentiful during the dry season average 7 to 10 hours a day. During the rainy season, the weather is cloudier and daily sunshine amounts is average only 3 to 4 hours a day.

Wind Energy
New

Energy

and

Industrial

Technology

Development

Organization(NEDO) of Japan performed in 1997 a study on renewable energy potential in GMS region and assessed that Myanmar has potentially available in Wind Energy. Promising areas to harness wind energy are in three regions, namely Hilly Regions of China and Shan states. Coastal regions in the south and western part of the country and central part of Myanmar. Use of wind energy is at the very initial stage. Due to the expensive initial cost, the utilization of wind energy needs to be implemented in cooperation with foreign participants under technology transfer and financial assistance program.

Hydro Energy
Feasible Hydropower Project in Myanmar by Region Wise
Sr. No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Kachin Kayar Kayin Chin Sagaing Taninthari Bago Magwe Mandalay Mon Rakhine Shan Total Region/State No. of Project Installed Capacity(MW) 14 5 9 1 5 6 8 5 9 2 6 16 86 15959.50 954.00 6904.00 380.00 2432.00 711.00 558.00 359.00 1475.00 290.00 871.00 12564.8 43,458.30

Hydro Energy
Feasible Hydropower Project in Myanmar by River Basin Wise
Sr. No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Chindwin Sittaung Thanlwin Mekong Others Total Region/State Ayeyarwaddy No. of Project 29 8 11 21 3 14 86 Installed Capacity(MW) 18775.50 2997.00 1148.00 17788.00 867.80 1882.00 43,458.30

Estimated Hydropower Potential : more than 108,000 MW Feasible Project : 43,458.30 MW

Geothermal
Myanmar is one of the countries with abundant geothermal resources. A total of 93 geothermal locations have been identified throughout the country. Out of the 93 geothermal sites, 43 of them were investigations had been made.

Conclusion for Renewable Energy

In the renewable energy sector, Myanmar has abundant renewable energy sources. However, they are at the initial stages due to an underdeveloped energy infrastructure such as institutional and legal framework, financial and human resource capacity constraint. In addition, th ey require substantial studies, research and experimental works need to be performed. The identified key issues in renewable energy development are as follows: To have adequate information on each and every type of renewable energy sources of the country To encourage more inter-ministries and inter-departmental interaction and cooperation To promote private participation in the development program To define and specify energy policy incorporating renewable energy

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