Ordinary

Differential
Equations

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Third Edition
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24 Chapter l. Basic Concepts
variable or if we com pactify the affine x-axis to form the projective line ( cf. Chapt.
5).
Problem l.
4
Which of the differential equations x = xn determine on an affineline
a phase velocity field that can be extended without singular points to the projective
line?
Answer. n = 0,1,2.
8. Example: The Logistic Curve
The ordinary reproduction equation x = kx is applicable only as long as the
number of individuals is not too large. As the number of individuals increases
competition for food leads to a decrease in the rate of reproduction. The sim-
plest hypothesis is that the coefficient k is an inhomogeneous linear function
of x ( when x is not too large any smooth function can be approximated by an
inhomogeneous linear function): k = a - bx.
We thus arrive at the reproduction equation taking account of competition
x = (a - bx )x. The coefficients a and b can be taken as .1 by a change of scale
on the t- and x-axes. We thus obtain the so-called logistic equation
x = (1- x)x.
The phase velocity vector field v and the direction field in the ( t, x )-plane
are depicted in Fig. 12.
Fig. 12. The vector field and the direc-
tion field of the equation x = (1 - x )x
Fig. 13. The integral curves of the
equation x = (1- x)x
We conclude from this that the integral curves look as depicted in Fig. 13.
More precisely, we see that
1) the process has two equilibrium positions x =O and x = 1;
2) between the points O and 1 the field is directed from O to 1, and for
x > 1 to the point l.
Thus the equilibrium position O is unstable (as soon as a population arises
it begins to grow), while the equilibrium position 1 is stable (a smaller popu-
lation increases, and a larger one decreases ).
4
Here and in the sequel problems marked with an asterisk are more difficult than
the others.
l. Phase Spaces 25
For any initial state x > O, as time passes the process moves toward the
stable equilibrium state x = l.
It is not clear from these considerations, however, whether this passage
takes place in a finite or infinite time, i.e., whether integral curves starting in
the region O < x < 1 can have points in common with the line x = l.
It can be shown that there are no such common points and that these
integral curves tend asymptotically to the line x = 1 as t +oo and to the
line x = O as t -oo. These curves are called logistic curves. Thus a logistic
curve has two horizontal asymptotes (x = O and x = 1) and describes the
passage from one state (O) to another (1) in an infinite time.
Problem l. Find the equation of a logistic curve.
Solution. By formula (3) t = J dxj(x(l- x)) = ln(x/1- x), or x = et /(1 + et).
This formula proves the asymptotic property of the logistic curve mentioned above.
Problem 2. Prove that the integral curves of the equation x = (1 - x )x in the
region x > 1 tend asymptotically to the line x = 1 as t ---+ +oo and have the vertical
asymptote t = const.
For small x the logistic curve is practically indistinguishable from the exponential
curve, i.e., competition has little influence on reproduction. However, as x increases
the reproduction becomes nonexponential, and near x = 1/2 the exponential curve
diverges sharply upward from the logistic curve; subsequently logistic growth de-
scribes the saturation of the system, i.e., the establishment of an equilibrium mode
in it (x = 1).
U p to the middle of the twentieth century science grew exponentially ( cf. Fig.
10). If such growth were to continue, the entire population of the earth would consist
of scientists by the end of the twenty-first century and there would not be enough
forests on the earth to print all the scientific journals. Consequently saturation must
set in befare that point: we are nearing the point where the logistic curve begins to
lag behind the exponential curve. For example, the number of mathematical journal
articles increased at a rate of 7% per year from the end of the Second World War
until the 1970's but the growth has been slower for the past several years.
9. Example: Harvest Quotas
U p to now we ha ve considered a free population developing according to its
own inner laws. As sume now that we harvest a part of the population ( for
example, we catch fish in a pond or in the ocean). Let us assume that the
rate of harvesting is constant. We then arrive at the differential equation for
harvesting
x = (1 - x )x -c.
The quantity e characterizes the rate of harvesting and is called the quota.
The form of the vector field and the phase velocity field under different values
of the harvest rate e is shown in Fig. 14.
We see that for a harvesting rate that is not too large (O < e< 1/4) there
exist two equilibrium positions (A and B in Fig. 14). The lower equilibrium
position x = A) is unstable. If for any reason ( overharvesting or disease) the