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Translate the strategy of the business into a detailed plan to create value. Evaluate whether sufficient resources are available to implement the intended strategy. Create a foundation to link economic goals with leading indicators of strategy implementation.
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ROE Wheel
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Sales*
Accounts Receivable
Cash Wheel
Sales*
Asset Utilization
Inventory
Operating Expenses
Profit Wheel
Profits**
Investment in Assets
Profits**
ROE Wheel
Return on Equity
Stockholders Equity
Profit Wheel/3Wheels
The profit plan summarizes the expected revenue inflows and expense outflows for a specified future accounting period. Usually managers go back and forth, projecting sales, operating expenses, profits, and required investment in assets. Then they work on the cash wheel and the ROE wheel to ensure resources will be available to implement the profit wheel.
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Estimate the Level of Sales Forecast Operating Expenses Calculate Expected Profit Price the Investment in New Assets Close the Profit Wheel and Test Key Assumptions.
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1. 2. 3. 4.
External Variables
Macroeconomic factors Government regulations Competitor moves Customer demand
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Internal Decisions
Product mix and pricing Marketing programs New Product Introduction and Change in product quality and feature Manufacturing and distribution capacity Customer service levels
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1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
1.
2. 3.
Non-variable costs
Committed costs Discretionary costs Activity-based indirect costs
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Profit defined
The residual economic value after interest expense and income taxes
Calculating Profit
NOPAT: Net Operating Profit after Taxes EBIAT: Earnings before Interest and after Taxes
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Assets to Consider for Investment: 1) Operating Assets 2) Long-Term Assets Most common investment evaluation technique is net present value.
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Profit Wheel Step 5 Close the Profit Wheel and Test Key Assumptions
Perform a Sensitivity Analysis Objective: Estimate how profit might change when assumptions prove to be under- or overstated.
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Cash Wheel
The cash wheel illustrates the operating cash flow cycle of a business. Important as companies have limited cash reserves and borrowing capacity. Operating cash = Cash Recd Cash Paid Direct (Short Term) & Indirect (Long Term) Methods
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The calculation of EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) is a simple technique to estimate operating cash flow.
Refer to Exhibit 2.
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Cash Wheel Step 2 Estimate Cash Needed to Fund Growth in Operating Assets
EBITDA is a rough measure that ignores any changes in working capital needed to operate the business. Examples include: A/R (accounts receivable), Inventory, and A/P (accounts payable). Refer to Exhibit 2.
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Cash Wheel Step 3 Price the Acquisition and Divestiture of Long-Term Assets
Different strategies and initiatives will require different levels of investment and cash. Examples here are Fixed Asset purchases, such as computer equipment or machinery. Refer to Exhibit 2.
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Lastly, need to account for cash needed or generated by financing and income tax. Examples here are dividends, interest expense, interest received, and repayment of debt principal. Refer to Exhibit 2.
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ROE Wheel
Return on Investment (ROI): a ratio measurement of the profit output of the business as a percentage of financial investment inputs.
Return on Equity (ROE): the appropriate internal measure of ROI for managers.
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ROE = (Net Income/Sales)*(Sales/Assets)* (Assets/Shareholders Equity) Net Income/Sales = Profitability Ratio Sales/Assets = Asset Turnover Ratio Assets/Shareholders Equity = Financial Leverage Ratio
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ROCE = Return on Capital Employed: Measures the effective utilization of capital and assets. = (Net Income/sales)*(Sales/Capital Employed)
Capital Employed = Assets within a managers direct span of control.
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Working Capital Turnover = (Sales) / (Current Assets Current Liabilities) Accounts Receivable Turnover = (Net Sales on Credit) / (Average Net Receivables) Inventory Turnover = (Cost of Goods Sold) / (Average Inventory) Fixed Asset Turnover = (Sales) / (Property, Plant, and Equipment)
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(/)
Total Expenses
(x)
Sales
Sales/Assets
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ROE Wheel Step 3 Compare Projected ROE with Industry Benchmarks and Investor Expectations
ROE The Limited The Gap Nike Boston Retail 10.6% 33.7% 25.2% Asset Profitability Turnover 2.4% 8.2% 8.7% 2.1 1.9 1.7 Financial Leverage 2.1 2.1 1.7
22.5%
6.4%
2.5
1.4
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Profit Wheel - Prepare profit plan Cash Wheel - Ensure cash will be adequate ROE Wheel - Compare each alternative
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Chapter Summary
Profit plan describes business strategy in economic terms Profit plan is used to assess the ability of different strategies to generate value and to estimate whether sufficient resources will be available to implement the chosen strategy
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