The new Tools of the OAR

Walter Schoning

CHIEF FLYING INSTRUCTOR

Conference 31 October 2 November

Content

Two Tools
TAAM (Total Airspace & Airport Modeller) ARM (Airspace Risk Model)

Benefits Summary

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What is TAAM doing?

TAAM Fast Time simulation models airspace and airports to facilitate planning, analysis and it is helpful to identify design problems in the route structures and identify conflict pairs;

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What is the ARM doing?

The ARM addresses probability of a MAC

Cause and Consequence Tool Results are summarised in terms of Societal Risk

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Fast Time Simulation (TAAM)

Identifies conflict pairs in the anticipated flight path Video1 Video 2

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TAAM Conflict

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TAAM Output

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Old - ARM
Port Hedland
VFR - L IFR - L IFR - M IFR - H Total 300 10 3000 Conflict Type V-V L-V L-L in V L-L in I M-V M-L in V M-L in I M-M in V M-M in I H-V H-L in V H-L in I H-M in V H-M in I H-H in V H-H in I Total V-V 39.54 40 4.0E+05 Collision Prob Collision Pairs pa 15.19% 15.66% 16.35% 4.09% 0.51% 0.47% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00% 12.76% 11.84% 2.96% 0.38% 0.10% 10.86% 2.71% 94.01% L-V 40.76 41 L-L in V 42.55 43 39.54 40.76 42.55 10.64 1.32 1.22 0.31 0.04 0.01 33.22 30.83 7.71 1.00 0.25 28.27 7.07 245 L-L in I 10.64 11 M-V 1.32 1 5,957 6,909 223 5,631 18,720 31.82% 36.91% 1.19% 30.08% 100.00% Increase VFR/IFR=RATIO 10.00% 10.00%Total VFR 10.00%Total IFR 10.00%Calculated Colission Pairs 0.47 244.73 31.82% 68.18% Collision Pairs Lives at Risk Per Annum Years to an Accident Lives at Risk Per Accident

Port Hedland Traffic Mix for

260.33

37%

1%
VFR L IFR - L

30% 32%

M-L in V 1.22 1

M-L in I 0.31 0

M-M in V 0.04 0

M-M in I 0.01 0

H-V 33.22 33

H-L in V 30.83 31

H-Lin I 7.71 8

H-M in V 1.00 1

CTAF (R) 3.8E+01

CONSIDERED ACTION - 2nd A/C 1st a/c fails to make accurate call 2nd a/c not listening 2nd a/c doesn't get traffic alert 2nd a/c doesn't "see" Ist a/c 2nd a/c fails to perceive 1st 2nd a/c fails to respond to threat 2nd a/c responds incorrectly 2nd a/c aware but makes error V-V 2.2E-02 1.3E-02 3.5E-02 8.6E-02 1.2E-01 5.4E-02 1.7E-02 7.0E-02 L-V L-L in V 9.2E-03 1.3E-02 2.2E-02 8.7E-02 1.1E-01 5.4E-02 1.7E-02 7.0E-02 L-L in I 9.2E-03 4.0E-03 1.3E-02 2.3E-02 3.6E-02 1.2E-02 4.4E-03 1.6E-02 M-V 9.2E-03 4.0E-03 1.3E-02 2.3E-02 3.6E-02 1.2E-02 4.4E-03 1.6E-02 M-L in V 1.4E-03 1.3E-02 1.4E-02 8.8E-02 1.0E-01 5.4E-02 1.7E-02 7.0E-02 M-L in I M-M in V 1.4E-03 1.4E-03 4.0E-03 4.0E-03 5.4E-03 5.4E-03 2.3E-02 2.3E-02 2.9E-02 2.9E-02 1.2E-02 1.2E-02 4.4E-03 4.4E-03 1.6E-02 1.6E-02 M-M in I H-V H-L in V 1.4E-03 1.4E-03 1.4E-03 1.2E-03 1.2E-03 1.3E-02 2.6E-03 2.6E-03 1.4E-02 5.7E-03 5.7E-03 8.8E-02 8.3E-03 8.3E-03 1.0E-01 2.7E-03 2.7E-03 5.4E-02 1.1E-03 1.1E-03 1.7E-02 3.8E-03 3.8E-03 7.0E-02 H-L in I 1.4E-03 4.0E-03 5.4E-03 2.3E-02 2.9E-02 1.2E-02 4.4E-03 1.6E-02 1.4E-03 4.0E-03 5.4E-03 2.3E-02 2.9E-02 1.2E-02 4.4E-03 1.6E-02

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Fault Tree

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ARM Output

Conflict Type VFR-VFR IFR (L) - VFR IFR(L) - IFR(L) IFR(M) - VFR IFR (M) - IFR (L) IFR(M) _IFR(M) IFR(H) - VFR IFR(H) - IFR(L) IFR(H) - IFR(M) IFR(H) - IFR(H) Total

Collision Pairs pa 3 1 0 7 0 0 1 4 0 3 19

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Summary

We have upgraded our tools Introducing a Fast Time Simulation Tool

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CIVIL AVIATION SAFETY AUTHORITY

Office of Airspace Regulation