Transport Demand Transport Demand Modeling: Obj Ti Objectives

1
TRANSPORT DEMAND TRANSPORT DEMAND

MODELING
ALVINSYAH ALVINSYAH
TRANSPORT RESEARCH GROUP
CIVIL ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT
CIVIL ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT CIVIL ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT
UNIVERSITY OF INDONESIA
CIVIL ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT
UNIVERSITY OF INDONESIA U S O O S U S O O S
Obj ti
2
Objectives
Identify the four steps of transportation Identify the four steps of transportation
demand modeling and describe modeling
b i basics.
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How do models fit in the transport
3
p
planning process?
Define problem
Define goals and criteria
C ll t d t Collect data
Forecasting (modeling) Forecasting (modeling)
Develop alternatives
Evaluate
i li i l i l Finalize an implementation plan
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How is Travel Modeled?
4
1. What will our community look like in the
future?
How many people? (population forecasts) How many people? (population forecasts)
What will they do? (economic forecasts)
Where will they do it? (land use pattern) Where will they do it? (land use pattern)
2. What are the travel patterns in the future?
How many trips? (trip generation)
Where will the trips go? (trip distribution)
What modes will they use? (mode split)
Wh ill h k ? ( ffi i ) What routes will they take? (traffic assignment)
What will be the effects of this travel? (impact
analysis) analysis)
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Four Steps of Conventional Transportation Modeling
5
Divide study area into study zones
4 steps
Trip Generation Trip Generation
-- decision to travel for a specific purpose (eat lunch)
Trip Distribution Trip Distribution
-- choice of destination (a particular restaurant? The
nearest restaurant?))
Mode Choice
-- choice of travel mode (by bike) ( y )
Network Assignment
-- choice of route or path (Elwood to Lincoln to US 69) p ( 9)
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6
Model Step #1 Model Step #1
T i Trip
Generation
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T i G ti
7
Trip Generation
Calculate number of trips generated in
each zone each zone
500 Households each making 2 morning trips
k ( i d /d !) to work (avg. trip ends ~ 10/day!)
Worker leaving job for lunch g j
Calculate number of trips attracted to each
zone zone
Industrial center attracting 500 workers
McDonalds attracting 200 lunch trips
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Trip Generation
8
Trip Generation
b f i h b i f d i Number of trips that begin from or end in
each TAZ each TAZ
Trips for a typical day
Trips are produced or attracted
f t i i f ti f # of trips is a function of:
TAZs land use activities TAZs land use activities
Socioeconomic characteristics of TAZ
l ti population
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Trip Generation
9
Trip Generation
3 variables related to the factors that influence trip 3 variables related to the factors that influence trip
production and attraction (measurable variables)
Density of land use affects production & attraction
Number of dwellings, employees, etc. per unit of land
Higher density usually = more trips Higher density usually = more trips
Social and socioeconomic characters of users influence
production
A f il i Average family income
Education
Car ownership
Location
Traffic congestion
Environmental conditions Environmental conditions
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Trip Generation
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Trip Generation
Trip purpose Trip purpose
Zonal trip making estimated separately by trip
purpose purpose
School trips
Work trips p
Shopping trips
Recreational trips
Travel behavior depends on trip purpose
School & work trips are regular (time of day)
R ti l t i hi hl i l Recreational trips highly irregular
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Trip Generation
11
Trip Generation
Forecast # of trips that produced or attracted by each TAZ p p y
for a typical day
Usually focuses on Monday - Friday
f f f f h bl # of trips is forecast as a function of other variables
Attraction
Number and types of retail facilities Number and types of retail facilities
Number of employees
Land use
Production
Car ownership
I Income
Population (employment characteristics)
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CIVIL ENGINEERING
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Classic Trip Generation
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Classic Trip Generation
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Trip Generation Techniques
13
Trip Generation Techniques
T i t l i d l Trip-rate analysis models
Average trip-production or trip-attraction
rates for specific types of producers and rates for specific types of producers and
attractors
More suited to trip attractions More suited to trip attractions
Cross-classification
Multiple regression analysis Multiple regression analysis
Mathematical equation that describes trips as
a function of another variable a function of another variable
Similar in theory to trip rate
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Trip Generation by Cross Classification
14
p y
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DEPARTMENT
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Trip Generation by Cross Classification
15
Income Level
80 0
90.0
Car By Income Level
100 0
120.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
%

o
f

f
a
m
i
l
i
e
s
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
%

c
a
r
s
0.0
10.0
20.0
0
4
0
0
8
0
0
1
2
0
0
1
6
0
0
2
0
0
0
2
4
0
0
2
8
0
0
3
2
0
0
3
6
0
0
4
0
0
0
4
4
0
0
4
8
0
0
Average income of zones
0.0
20.0
0
.
15
1
0
1
5
2
0
2
5
3
0
3
5
4
0
4
5
5
0
5
5
6
0
Income Level
g
<=4 mw 4-15 mw >14 mw
Income Level
0 car 1 car 2 or more cars
Motorized Trips
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
T
r
i
p
s

b
y

F
a
m
i
l
y
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Income Level
0 car 1 car 2 or more cars
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CIVIL ENGINEERING
DEPARTMENT
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Trip Generation by Regression Model
16
Trip Generation by Regression Model
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Trip Generation by Multiple Regression
17
Trip Generation by Multiple Regression
Home-to-work trips (R = 0.99)
O 43 6 0 097 P l ti 773 E l d R id t 351 O
i
= -43.6 + 0.097 Population + .773 Employed Residents - 351
Number of Households + .504 Num Cars
Trips to shopping (R = 0.95)
O = 17 9 +1 19Area Res Land + 266 Number of Cars O
i
= -17.9 + 1.19 Area Res. Land + .266 Number of Cars
Light Commercial Vehicle Trips: Light Commercial Vehicle Trips:
O
i
= 75.9 + .367Number HHs + .267 Total Empl -.339 Office
Empl - 0188 Industrial Empl Empl - .0188 Industrial Empl
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CIVIL ENGINEERING
DEPARTMENT
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18
Model Step #2 p
Trip Trip
Di t ib ti Distribution
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T i Di t ib ti
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Trip Distribution
Predicts where trips go from each TAZ
Determines trips between pairs of zones Determines trips between pairs of zones
T
ij
: trips from TAZ i going to TAZ j
F ti f tt ti f TAZ j Function of attractiveness of TAZ j
Size of TAZ j
i j Distance to TAZ j
If 2 malls are similar (in the same trip
purpose), travelers will tend to go to closest
Different methods but gravity model is most popular
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CIVIL ENGINEERING
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Trip Distribution
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Trip Distribution
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Trip Distribution
21
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Gravity Model
22
Gravity Model
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23
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Growth Factor Method
24
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Single ConstraintGrowth Factor Method
25
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26
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27
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28
Model Step #3 Model Step #3
Mode Choice Mode Choice
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Mode Choice
29
Mode Choice
In most situations, a traveler has a choice
of modes of modes
Transit, walk, bike, carpool, motorcycle, drive
l alone
Mode choice/mode split determines # of Mode choice/mode split determines # of
trips between zones made by auto or other
mode usually transit mode, usually transit
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Characteristics Influencing Mode
30
g
Choice
Availability of parking
Income
Availability of transit
Auto ownership Auto ownership
Type of trip
Work trip more likely transit p y
Special trip trip to airport or baseball stadium served by
transit
Sh i ti l t i b t Shopping, recreational trips by auto
Stage in life
Old and young are more likely to be transit dependent Old and young are more likely to be transit dependent
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Characteristics Influencing Mode
31
g
Choice
Cost
Parking costs, gas prices, maintenance? Parking costs, gas prices, maintenance?
Transit fare
Safety Safety
Time
Transit usually more time consuming Transit usually more time consuming
Image
In some areas perception is that only poor ride transit In some areas perception is that only poor ride transit
In others everyone rides transit
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M d Ch i M d li
32
Mode Choice Modeling
A numerical method to describe how
people choose among competing people choose among competing
alternatives (dont confuse model and
d l) modal)
Highly dependent on characteristics of Highly dependent on characteristics of
region
M d l b t d b t i Model may be separated by trip purposes
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Mode Choice-Logit Model
33
Mode Choice Logit Model
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l d l
34
Utility and Disutility Functions
Utility function: measures satisfaction derived from
choices choices
Disutility function: represents generalized costs of
each choice
Usually expressed as the linear weighted sum of the
independent variables of their transformation
U = a + a X + a X + + a X U = a
0
+ a
1
X
1
+ a
2
X
2
+ .. + a
r
X
r
U: utility derived from choice
X : attributes X
r
: attributes
a
r
: model parameters
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Mode Choice
35
Mode Choice
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36
M d l St #4 Model Step #4
Traffic Assignment (Route Choice) Traffic Assignment (Route Choice)
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Network Representation
37
Network Representation
Network is formed by links and nodes
Impedance is associated with link Impedance is associated with link.
Network is usually connected
A sequence of links forms a route (or a path)
Concerns of numbering coding data Concerns of numbering, coding, data
structure and memory conservation
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38
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Link Performance Functions
39
A mathematical formula representing the A mathematical formula representing the
travel impedance, level of service of the link.
k l k f As known as link cost function
Travel time is the measure used most often Travel time is the measure used most often
Crucial to traffic assignment
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Typical Link Performance Functions
40
Typical Link Performance Functions
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41
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BPR Function
42
t = t
0
* (1 + (v/c)
)
Where;
t li k t l ti t link travel time
t
0
free flow travel time
0
v link flow
li k it c link capacity
, parameters ( = 0.15, = 4) , p ( 5, 4)
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Trip Assignment
43
Trip Assignment
Trip makers choice of path between origin
d d ti ti and destination
Path: streets selected Path: streets selected
Transit: usually set by route
Results in estimate of traffic volumes on
each oad a i the et o k each roadway in the network
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Person Trips vs Vehicle Trips
44
Person Trips vs. Vehicle Trips
Trip generation step calculated total person trips
T i i t d l ith l t Trip assignment deals with volume not person
trips
Need to adjust person trips to reflect vehicle trips
Understand units during trip generation phase Understand units during trip generation phase
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Person Trips vs. Vehicle Trips
45
p p
Example
Usually adjust by average auto occupancy
Example: Example:
If:
average auto occupancy = 1 2 average auto occupancy = 1.2
number of person trips from zone 1 = 550
So:
V hi l t i t i / hi l Vehicle trips = 550 person trips/1.2 persons per vehicle =
458.33 vehicle trips
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Ti f D P tt
46
Time of Day Patterns
Trip generation usually based on 24-hour
i d period
LOS calculations usually based on hourly LOS calculations usually based on hourly
time period
Hour, particularly peak, is often of more
interest than daily interest than daily
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Ti f D P tt
47
Time of Day Patterns
Common time periods
M i k Morning peak
Afternoon peak
Off-peak
Calculation of trips by time of day Calculation of trips by time of day
Use of factors (e.g., morning peak may be
% f d il ffi ) 11% of daily traffic)
Estimate trip generation by hour p g y
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Mi i P th
48
Minimum Path
Theory: users will select the quickest route
b d d between any origin and destination
Several route choice models (all based on (
some minimum path)
All or nothing All or nothing
Multipath
Capacity restraint Capacity restraint
User Equilibrium
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Mi i P th
49
Minimum Path
Starts at zone and selects minimum path to
h i f d each successive set of nodes
Until it reaches destination node
2
1
5
(3) (2)
(7)
3
4
5
(4)
(4)
3
Path from 1 to 5
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All N thi
50
All or Nothing
Allocates all volume between zones to
i i th b d f fl li k minimum path based on free-flow link
impedances p
Does not update as the network loads
Becomes unreliable as volumes and travel
time increases time increases
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C it R t i t
51
Capacity Restraint
Once vehicles begin selecting the
minimum path between a set of nodes minimum path between a set of nodes,
volume increase and so do travel times
Original minimum paths may no longer
be the minimum path be the minimum path
Capacity restraint assigns traffic
it ti l d ti i d t h iteratively, updating impedance at each
stepp
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Wardrop Equilibrium
52
Wardrop Equilibrium
"Under equilibriumconditions traffic Under equilibrium conditions, traffic
arranges itself in congested networks in
h th t i di id l t i k such a way that no individual trip maker can
reduce his path costs by switching routes". reduce his path costs by switching routes .
All used routes between any Origin /
Destination pair have equal and minimum
costs, while all unused routes have greater costs, while all unused routes have greater
or equal costs."
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Final Outputs from Traffic
53
p
Assignment
Amount of travel congestion speed per link Amount of travel, congestion, speed per link
Total transport cost, time, VMT
By applying other coefficients:
Accidents Accidents
Air pollution
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