I.

S lc v cuc khng hong ti chnh th gii

1. Bt ngun

Bn cnh cuc chy ua vo Nh Trng ang din ra ht sc gay cn, khng hong ti chnh l mi quan tm hng u ca dn chng M v th gii. Trong nn kinh t ton cu ha hm nay, khng hong ti chnh v s tr tr ca nn kinh t M ang v s nh hng n nhiu nc trn th gii. Khng hong ti chnh bng pht ti M v lan rng ton cu, ko theo s sp ng lot ca nhiu nh ch ti chnh khng l, th trng chng khon khuynh o. Nm 2008 cng chng kin n lc cha tng c ca cc nn kinh t chng chi vi "bo".
1. Nguyn nhn

*Nguyn nhn trc tip v r rng nht ca cuc khng hong ti chnh ln ny l s suy sp ca th trng bt ng sn. M, gn nh hu ht ngi dn khi mua nh l phi vay tin ngn hng v tr li li ln vn trong mt thi gian di sau . Do , c mt s lin h rt cht ch gia tnh hnh li sut v tnh trng ca th trng bt ng sn. Khi li sut thp v d vay mn th ngi ta x i mua nh, y gi nh ca ln cao; khi li sut cao th th trng gim chn, ngi bn nhiu hn ngi mua, y gi nh xung thp. *Bong bng bt ng sn C ba yu t chnh khi to nn bong bng trong th trng bt ng sn. Th nht, bt u t nm 2001, gip nn kinh t thot khi tr tr, Cc D tr lin bang M (Fed) lin tc h thp li sut, dn n vic cc ngn hng cng h li sut cho vay tin mua bt ng sn (mc d nhng loi li sut cho vay tin mua nh do cc ngn hng thng mi n nh bao gi cng cao hn nhiu so vi li sut c bn ca Fed, nhng mc cao hay thp ca chng bao gi cng ph thuc vo li sut c bn). Vo gia nm 2000 th li sut c bn ca Fed l trn 6% nhng sau li sut ny lin tc c ct gim, cho n gia nm 2003 th ch cn 1%. Th nh, v phng din s hu nh ca, chnh sch chung ca chnh ph lc by gi l khuyn khch v to iu kin cho dn ngho v cc nhm dn da mu c vay tin d dng hn mua nh. Vic ny

phn ln c thc hin thng qua hai cng ty c bo tr bi chnh ph l Fannie Mae v Freddie Mac. Hai cng ty ny gip vn vo th trng bt ng sn bng cch mua li cc khon cho vay ca cc ngn hng thng mi, bin chng thnh cc loi chng t c bo m bng cc khon vay th chp (mortgage-backed securities - MBS), ri bn li cho cc nh u t Ph Wall, c bit l cc ngn hng u t khng l nh Bear Stearns v Merrill Lynch. Th ba, bi v c s bin i cc khon cho vay thnh cc cng c u t cho nn th
trng tn dng phc v cho th trng bt ng sn khng cn l sn chi duy nht ca cc ngn hng thng mi hoc cc cng ty chuyn cho vay th chp bt ng sn na. N

tr nn mt sn chi mi cho cc nh u t, c kh nng huy ng dng vn t khp ni vo, k c dng vn ngoi quc. im c bit y l bi v vic hnh thnh, mua bn, v bo him MBS l v cng phc tp cho nn n din ra gn nh l ngoi tm kim sot thng thng ca chnh ph. Bi v thiu s kim sot cn thit cho nn lng tham v tnh mo him tr nn ph bin cc nh u t. Bn cnh , bi v c th bn li phn ln cc khon vay cc cng ty khc bin chng thnh MBS, cc ngn hng thng mi tr nn mo him hn trong vic cho vay, bt chp kh nng tr n ca ngi vay. Vi ba l do trn, th trng bt ng sn tr nn rt nhn nhp, c rt nhiu ngi thu nhp thp hoc khng c tn dng tt nhng vn x i mua nh. c th c vay, nhm ngi ny thng phi tr li sut cao hn v thng c cho mn di hnh thc li sut iu chnh theo thi gian (v d, nu tha thun l c vay vi li sut 6% v iu chnh sau 3 nm th ng ba nm sau li sut mi s c n nh theo thi im ). Tm li, nhm ngi ny thuc vo thnh phn c cho vay vi loi li sut di chun (subprime rate). Bt k kh nng tr c n ca nhm vay di chun, khon tin cho vay dnh cho nhm ny tng vn vt. Theo cc c tnh th n tng t 160 t USD nm 2001 ln 540 t vo nm 2004 v trn 1.300 t vo nm 2007. Fannie Mae mnh tay hn trong vic mua li cc khon cho vay

y mo him do phi i u vi cnh tranh nhiu hn t cc cng ty khc, chng hn nh Lehman Brothers. Bn cnh , nhu cu mua li MBS ca cc nh u t vn cao bi v cho ti trc nm 2006 th th trng bt ng sn vn cha c du hiu n bong bng. Hn na, h cng phn no c trn an khi vn c th mua thong th cc hp ng bo him CDS t cc cng ty bo him v u t khc. Vic ny dn n cc cng ty bn bo him cng mnh tay hn trong vic bn CDS ra th trng, bt chp kh nng bo m ca mnh. V d vay cho nn nhu cu mua nh ln rt cao, ko theo vic ln gi bt ng sn lin tc. Gi nh bnh qun tng n 54% ch trong vng bn nm t 2001 (nm bt u ct mnh li sut) n 2005. Vic ny cng dn n vn u c v li l gi nh s tip tc ln. H qu l ngi ta sn sng mua nh vi gi cao, bt k gi tr thc v kh nng tr n sau ny v h ngh nu cn s bn li tr n ngn hng m vn c li. Do , mt bong bng thnh hnh trong th trng bt ng sn. Cn a chn ti chnh thc s n ra vo ngy 7/9 khi hai nh cho vay cm c khng l ca M l Freddie Mac v Fannie Mae buc phi c Chnh ph tip qun trnh khi nguy c ph sn. S kin ny tip tc chm ngi cho v v vi nhng tn tui ln khc. Vo ngy 15/9, Ngn hng u t ln th 4 nc M Lehman Brothers sau 158 nm tn ti tuyn b ph sn.
I.

Gii thiu v Lehman Brothers

1. Qu trnh thnh lp

Lehman Brothers (dch: Anh em nh Lehman) (NYSE: LEH ) (thnh lp nm 1850 bi ba anh em Henry, Emanuel v Mayer Lehman ngi Do Thi t c di c sang) l mt tp on chng khon v tp on ngn hng u t ln th 4 ca Hoa K. Lnh vc chnh ca tp on l ngn hng u t, bun bn c phiu v tri phiu, nghin cu th trng, qun l u t, v ngn hng t nhn. Tp on t tr s chnh Thnh ph New York, v hai tr s khc London v Tokyo, cng nh nhiu vn phng i din khp th gii.

Khi cng ty tip tc pht trin trong sut th k 20, n m rng sang cc lnh vc khc nhau ca cc dch v ti chnh khu vc. Nm 1977, Lehman Brothers sp nhp vi Kuhn, Loeb & Co, mt ngn hng u t, v tip tc tng trng thnh cng ca n trong ngnh cng nghip dch v ti chnh nhiu nm na. Mt cuc tranh ginh quyn lc xy ra sau vo u nhng nm 1980 gia cc thng nhn ca cng ty v ngn hng u t, gy ra nhiu nhn vin ch cht ri khi cng ty. Nm 1984, Cng ty American Express (AXP) mua li cng ty u tranh vi $ 360 triu USD. Sau , vo u nhng nm 1990, American Express quyt nh c c kinh doanh ngn hng u t v tch ra cc cu Lehman Brothers Kuhn Loeb hot ng trong mt ra cng chng ban u.
D liu thu nhp hng nm, hng triu [3] Tng doanh thu Chi ph li vay Doanh thu thun Chi ph hot ng khc Hot ng thu nhp Thu nhp rng NM 2005 NM 2006 NM 2007

$ 32.420 $ 46.709 $ 59.003 $ 17.790 $ 29.126 $ 39.746 $ 14.630 $ 17.583 $ 19.257 $ 9.801 $ 11.678 $ 13.244 $ 4.829 $ 3.260 $ 5.905 $ 4.007 $ 6.013 $ 4.192

Qua bng s liu trn ta thy thu nhp rng lin tc tng qua cc nm t 2005 n 2007 u t v M&A cng rt ln. Ln ti 663,3 t USD. Bng : M & A hon thnh trong 9 thng u nm 2007 Bng bo co ti chnh cc nm 2005, 2006, 2007 ca Lehman Brothers

Doanh thu thun l 19.257 triu USD, 17.583 triu USD v 14.630 triu USD nm 2007, nm 2006 v 2005, tng ng tng 20% v 26% tng ng. Thu nhp rng t 4.192 triu USD, 3.960 triu USD v 3.260 triu USD trong nm 2007, 2006 v 2005. Thu nhp trn mi c

phiu l 7,26 triu USD, 6,81 triu USD v 5.43 triu USD trong nm 2007, 2006 v 2005 Thnh tu: Lehman Brothers tip tc a dng ha Cng ty ca Lehman Brothers bng cch m rng du chn a l ca Lehman Brothers v pht trin mc tiu u t kinh doanh ca Lehman Brothers. Thc hin trong nm nay l mt tip ni ca nhng g Lehman Brothers thc hin trong thp k qua. Trong nm 2007, Lehman Brothers m vn phng ti Doha-Qatar, Dubai, Geneva, Istanbul, Lisbon, Moscow, So Paolo, v Thng Hi. Trong kt ni vi mua li ca Lehman Brothers ca Grange chng khon c v Eagle Energy Partners Texas, Lehman Brothers thm vn phng ti Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Brisbane, v Houston. Trong nm 2007, Lehman Brothers cng u t vo nhiu ca cc doanh nghip ca Lehman Brothers, bao gm c hng ha, dch v chnh, th trng Qun l u t, ngn hng u t, v mi ni, cng nh trong u t vo khu vc ca Lehman Brothers. iu , dn n tng trng doanh thu mnh m trong nhng khu vc mc tiu. Trong nm nm trc, doanh thu Ngn hng u t pht trin 23%, chng khon th trng vn 40%, v qun l u t 36%. Trong khong thi gian ny, chu tng 38% v chu u 36%. Doanh thu ca Lehman Brothers khng c cn bng ng u hn gia cc doanh nghip ca Lehman Brothers, v Lehman Brothers c t c tt nht-bao gi a l ca Lehman Brothers a dng ha, vi mt na doanh thu ca Cng ty to ra bn ngoi kt qu ca tt c cc iu ny. Tuy vy, y l tht vng ln nht trong nm 2007 l ca Lehman Brothers gi c phiu gim ln u tin trong 5 nm. Lehman Brothers ang chng minh cho cc th trng m chng ta c mt kh nng tip tc pht trin ca Lehman Brothers bng cch a dng tp hp cc doanh nghip, qun l ri ro v qun l vn c hiu qu, v cung cp cc kt qu tt.
1. Qu trnh pht trin

Nm 1824, Henry Lehman di c ti Hoa K v m mt hiu tp ha c tn Ca hng H. Lehman ti Montgomery, Alabama). Sau , ng n hai em l Emanuel v Mayer Lehman sang v n nm 1850 th i tn c s kinh doanh ca mnh thnh Cng ty Thng mi Lehman Brothers. Thi , ngnh trng bng Alabama rt pht trin v anh em nh Lehman bn hng cho khch nhng thay v

nhn tin mt li nhn hoa bng. Vic kinh doanh hoa bng pht t gip cho c s kinh doanh ca anh em nh Lehman ln mnh v h quyt nh m thm mt vn phng ti thnh ph New York l trung tm giao dch hoa bng lc . Nm 1855, Henry qua i, v cng vic kinh doanh do hai anh em Emanuel v Mayer chu trch nhim chnh. H dng ngun ti chnh ca mnh tin hnh u t tham gia khi phc li bang Alabama b tn ph bi cuc ni chin Hoa K, v thu li to ln. Khng bao lu sau, anh em nh Lehman quyt nh di tr s cng ty mnh ti thnh ph New York. Nm 1870, s giao dch hoa bng New York c thnh lp; v cng ty ca anh em nh Lehman gp mt tay. Nm 1884, Emanuel nhn cng v gim c s giao dch hoa bng ni trn. T , cng ty Lehman Brother cn tham gia vo th trng tri phiu pht trin ng st, bt u hot ng t vn u t. Nm 1887, cng ty ca anh em nh Lehman tr thnh hi vin ca S Giao dch Chng khon New York. Nm 1899, ln u tin cng ty nhn bo lnh pht hnh tri phiu doanh nghip. Sau khi con trai ca Emanuel l Phillips ln lm ch tch cng ty th Lehman Brothers bt u lin kt vi Goldman Sachs v trong vng 20 nm, lin danh ny nhn bo lnh pht hnh hng trm tri phiu doanh nghip khc nhau. Con trai ca Phillips l Robert ni nghip ng cha lm nn k tch, gip Lehman Brother vt qua nhng ngy thng kh khn do cuc i Khng hong gy ra. Lc y cng ty ny hu thun ti chnh cho cc nh u t c nhn v h tr ti chnh cho cc v sp nhp doanh nghip. S nghip kinh doanh mo him ca Lehman Brothers bt u t . Hot ng ngn hng u t Lehman ch chim 20% doanh thu nm 2007 ca cng ty. Tuy nhin, b phn ny c xem nh l mt yu t ngy cng quan trng trong k hoch pht trin trong tng lai ca Lehman. Ngn hng u t c chia thnh 2 khu vc chnh: Mua bn sp nhp (M & A), hoc cc cng ty t vn v lm th no mua hoc kt hp vi cc cng ty khc, v Ti chnh doanh nghip, trong bao gm t vn cho cc cng ty n, IPO ca v vn ti c

cu, vv Trong qu kh vi nm, Lehman c th m rng doanh thu t bo lnh vn ch s hu (bo m rng Lehman cung cp cho khch hng c m bo cc nh u t s c tm thy mua c phiu mi pht hnh) v M & A t vn doanh nghip (khu vc nhiu li nhun ca ngn hng u t), trong khi tip tc cung cp thu nhp c nh nhiu dch v ngn hng nh pht hnh tri phiu doanh nghip v chnh ph cho cc cng ty (thu nhp c nh bo lnh pht hnh). Hot ng bo lnh pht hnh c thu nhp c nh chim 45% doanh thu ca ngn hng u t Lehman trong vi nm qua. Min l sn phm thu nhp c nh tip tc ng mt vai tr ln trong vic phn chia th trng vn, n c kh nng l bo lnh thu nhp c nh s vn quan trng i vi kinh doanh ca ngn hng u t Lehman. Kt qu hot ng kinh doanh
BNG KT QU HOT NG KINH DOANH 2007 n v: triu USD 2007 Tng doanh thu Chi ph li vay Doanh thu thun Chi ph ngoi li vay: Bi thng v li ch Chi ph c nhn Cu hnh li chi ph bt ng sn Tng chi ph ngoi li vay Thu nhp trc thu v hiu ng tch ly ca s thay i k ton D phng thu thu nhp C tc trn s tin tng chng 9.494 3.750 13.244 6.013 1.821 7.213 5,730 4,318 3.009 2.588 2,309 1,716 19 77 11.678 9.801 8,058 6,111 5.905 4.829 3,518 2,536 1.945 1.569 1,125 765 24 72 8.669 59.003 39.746 19.257 2006 2005 2004 2003 46.709 32.420 $ 21,250 $ 17,287 29.126 17.790 9,674 8,640 17.583 14.630 11,576 8,647

khon yu thch Thu nhp trc khi nh hng tch ly ca s thay i k ton Hiu ng tch ly ca s thay i k ton Thu nhp rng Thu nhp rng p dng cho c phiu ph thng

4.192 4.192 4.125

3.960 47

3.260 2,369 1,699

4.007 $ 2,369 3.941 $ 2,297

3.260 $ 1,699 3.191 $ 1,649

Biu : Tng trng ca doanh thu thun v li nhun rng qua cc nm 2005 ti 2007

Ta thy doanh thu thun tng nhanh trong nm 2005 v 2006 , tng nh vo nm 2007. Cn thu nhp rng tng kh u qua cc nm. V yu t chi ph ngoi li vay tng nhanh t nm 2005 ti nm 2006 v nh hng ca yu t hiu ng tch ly ca s thay i k ton vo nm 2006 khin li nhun gim i. Lehman Brothers t doanh thu rng k lc, thu nhp rng v thu nhp trn mi c phiu trong nm 2006 cho nm th ba lin tip. Doanh thu thun l 19.257 triu USD, 17.583 triu USD v 14.630 triu USD nm 2007, nm 2006 v 2005, tng ng tng 20% v 26% tng ng. Thu nhp rng t 4.192 triu USD, 3.960 triu USD v 3.260 triu USD trong nm 2007, 2006 v 2005. Thu nhp trn mi c phiu l 7,26 triu USD, 6,81 triu USD v 5.43 triu USD trong nm 2007, 2006 v 2005 Gi c phiu
Biu : Gi chng khon qua cc nm Gi chng khon ca Lehman cao hn rt nhiu so vi chng khon ca S&P 500 v S&P Financials, ngn hng ang rt thnh vng t nm 2004 ti 2006, t 247,43 im trong khi S&P 500 l 160,90 cn S&P Financials l 168,04. Sau gim xung cn 212,20 nhng vn cao hn 2 chng khon cn li. Lehman cn a dng ha gia cc khu vc chu M, chu u, Trung ng v chu -Thi Bnh Dng.

So vi i th cnh tranh
Lehman Brothers ln th t ca ngn hng u t trong nc. Trong khi doanh thu ca n ch l mt phn ca nhng i th cnh tranh chnh ca n, n thc s l nhiu li nhun hn c Merrill Lynch (MER) v Morgan Stanley (MS) . Do kch thc ca n, Lehman l nhiu hn na tp trung trong mt s lnh vc quan trng, quan trng nht trong s l doanh s bn hng thu nhp c nh v kinh doanh thng mi. Lehman bt ngun doanh thu thun t bn hng c

thu nhp c nh v kinh doanh hn bt k ca cc ng nghip ngnh cng nghip ca n. Tuy nhin, iu ny ph thuc vo th trng vn lm cho Lehman vo ngn hng u t tt nht trong hiu qu kinh doanh (tc l, Thu Thng mi / VAR), c ngha l cng ty to ra doanh thu trn mt n v ri ro c thc hin hn so vi cc i th cnh tranh ca n. iu ny c mt ng gp mnh m cho li nhun cc cng ty trong nhng nm gn y. Tp on Morgan Merrill Lehman Bear 2007 s liu Goldman Sachs Stanley Lynch Brothers Stearns (GS) Tng thu nhp ($ 19,3 45,6 23,1 -6,1 2,2 B) Thu nhp trc 6013 17604 3441 -12831 193 thu (M) 1 nm tng 9,5 trng doanh thu 23 -9,7 N/A -52 (%) Vn ch s hu 1015 nguyn doanh thu 1382 1570 1629 N/A ($ B) M & A doanh thu 1337 4222 2541 1740 828 t vn ($ B) Doanh thu n bo 1551 lnh pht hnh ($ 1951 1427 1550 N/A B) Lu : Cc cng ty Bear Stearns (BSC) $ 529 triu doanh thu cho tt c cc hot ng bo lnh pht hnh ca n, nhng khng cung cp mt phn tch v n so vi vn ch s hu bo lnh pht hnh trong Form 10-K. Trong khi Lehman bt ngun doanh thu t hot ng kinh doanh chng khon hn so vi cc ng nghip ca mnh, n c nhng bc tin ng k theo hng a dng ha hn hp kinh doanh ca mnh trong vng bn nm qua. iu ny l hin nhin trong nm 2007 cc kt qu qu 2. Thu nhp rng ca Lehman tng 27% mc d th ly cm hng t cho vay di chun, 14% doanh s bn hng thu nhp c nh ca n v b phn kinh doanh. Trong khi thc hnh ngn hng u t Lehman vn cn nh hn nhiu so vi cc ng nghip ca mnh, n ang ng mt vai tr ngy cng quan trng trong vic cung cp Lehman vi kt qu nht qun hn.
1. Din bin dn n ph sn

T nm 2006, Lehman quyt nh thay i chnh sch, ng li pht trin mnh m, v nh vy ly nhiu ri ro hn. Nm 2007, khi khng hong v subprime vay mn a c bng n, Lehman li cho rng y ch l khng hong tm thi, b tin vo hy vng sau cn khng hong s li ln. Thng 7 nm 2007, Lehman ng BNC Mortgage l chi nhnh suprime lender, xa thi 2,300 nhn vin. Qua nm 2008, Lehman b l nng n v vay mn a c, v khng bn li c cc mn tin cho vay v a c. Ngy 29 thng 1 nm 2008, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc bo co k lc doanh thu gn $60 t, v li 4 t cho ti kha n ngy 30 thng 11 nm 2007. Gi c phiu ln cao $ 65,73. Gia thng 3 nm 2008, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) v Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) c ngi ng ti bn doanh, theo di v kim tra tnh hnh ti chnh ca Lehman. Ban gim c Lehman lun thng bo Lehman c phng tin ti chnh i ph vi nhng giao ng kinh t. Cui thng 6 nm 2008, Lehman khai l $2.8 t. Ngy 10 thng 9 nm 2008, Lehman khai l $3.9 t, nhng bo co huy ng c $40 t tin mt. Nhng tht ra mt phn khng c xem l tin mt. Ring trong na u nm 2008, c phiu ca Lehman Brothers mt gi ti 70%. Lng tin ca cc nh u t tip tc gim i khi c phiu ca cng ty mt gi thm 50% vo ngy 9 thng 9 v trc du hiu Chnh ph Hoa K s khng lm g cu cng ty ti chnh ny. Ngy 10 thng 9, cng ty tuyn b thua l 3,9 t dollar M.

Song vi kt qu kinh doanh 2007 kh quan, nhiu ngi k c mnh tin rng Lehman c th vt qua cn bo ny. Nhng s ti t li n vo nm 2008 khi ln u tin ngn hng ny bo co l trong Q2 v phi huy ng thm 6 t vn. C phiu Lehman gim t nh 80$ vo nm 2007 xung 20$ trong mt thi gian ngn.Mi ch u tun trc khi th trng n Lehman s l khong 4 t trong Q3, gi c phiu st khng phanh.

Thc t Lehman c hng tun m phn vi KDB nhm a ra c mt k hoch tng vn trc khi thng bo kt qu Q3. Nhng ri mi n lc m phn i vo b tc. C l lc Ban lnh o Lehman vn cha th nhn thc c mc nghim trng ca vn . Th trng phn ng tiu cc lm cho gi c phiu gim 45% trong ngy th 3 cn 7.79. Ban iu hnh nhanh chng thay i k hoch cng b kt qu Q3 sm hn 1 tun t 17/9 ln 10/9 nhm n nh tm l th trng. Mt kt qu thc t st vi d on th trng Q3 l 3.9 t. Tng s d phng gim gi ly k cho danh mc u t lin quan n bt ng sn ln ti 8 t. Vi mt danh mc bt ng sn ri ro ln ti 60 t, chim 10% tng ti sn v gp 3 s vn ch s hu, cng vi mt k hoch ti c cu trn giy thiu tnh kh thi, gi c phiu gim tip 7.25 vo ngy th 4. iu ti t thc s n vo ngy th 5 khi gi c phiu tip tc rt 43% cn 4.22. Vic Moodys e da h nh mc tn nhim ca Lehman xa i mi n lc cu cha. Vic h mc tn nhim ng ngha vi vic phi thc hin cc "margin call" tng ti sn m bo cho cc giao dch vi khch hng. y l cha ni cc khch hng s h hn mc giao dch vi Lehman v chi ph huy ng vn tng cao. p ng margin call th Lehman s phi t thm ti sn m bo ln n khong 3 t USD. iu ny c l l qua xa x vi Lehman ti thi im hin nay. Mc d kh nng thanh khon ca Lehman c nh gi l kh tt song vi cc khon l ngy cng tng t danh mc u t lin quan ti bt ng sn, vic huy ng vn mi gn nh khng th th sm mun Lehman cng ri vo ri ro thanh khon nu khng c gii php chin lc kp thi. Ngy 12 thng 9 nm 2008, Lehman khai huy ng c $41 t tin mt. Nhng tht ra ch c $2 t tin mt. C phiu Lehman xung di di $4. Ngy 15 thng 9 nm 2008, tp on tuyn b ph sn vi khon n 613 t la M sau khi khng c cng ty no chp nhn mua li. y l v ph sn ngn hng ln nht trong lch s Hoa K.
I.

Nguyn nhn sp ca ngn hng Lehman Brothers

Th hai ngy 15 thng 9 nm 2008, sau khi nhng n lc huy ng vn b tht bi do Chnh ph M t chi bo lnh, Lehman Brothers, ngn hng u t hng u trn th gii vi 158 nm lch s v trn 26000 nhn vin, tuyn b ph sn. Tng s tin n ca Lehman Brothers ln ti 768 t la (bao gm 613 t la n ngn hng v 155 t la n tri phiu). Gi tr ti sn xc nh trn giy t l 639 t la, bao gm nhiu ti sn m gi tr thc t c th thp hn nhiu gi tr s sch. Cho n cui nm 2007, doanh thu ca cng ty cn l 59 t la vi 4,2 t li rng. Cn a chn mang tn Lehman Brothers, ngn hng u t ln th t ca M mi tuyn b ph sn, i vo lch s bi i gia ny l nn nhn ca chnh mnh ch khng phi ai khc. Ngn hng ln th t ca M ph sn Ngn hng u t l mt nh ch ti chnh c mc ri ro rt cao v kim tin thng qua qun tr ri ro. Ri ro cao i vi lnh vc bt ng sn trong bi cnh mt cuc khng hong tn dng ton din v khc lit trong lch s l nguyn nhn chnh dn n s sp ca ch ti chnh gi ci 158 nm tui Lehman Brothers.
1. Ri ro trong lnh vc bt ng sn

Lehman - cng nh cc ngn hng u t khc - s dng nghip v chng khon ha (securitisation) bin cc khon cho vay mua bt ng sn thnh cc gi tri phiu c gc bt ng sn y ri ro cung cp cho th trng. Khi nn kinh t i xung, ngi vay tin mua nh khng tr c cc khon vay mua nh th ri ro tn dng c chuyn sang cc gi tri phiu c cc danh mc tn dng bt ng sn lm ti sn m bo. Khng hong cng gia tng th vic pht mi ti sn cng tng lm gi bt ng sn cng gim. iu ny c ngha gi tr ti sn m bo ca tri phiu cng gim v ri ro tn dng cng tng. Vng xoy khng hong c tip tc nh vy, lm cho gi chng khon st gim mnh. Cc ngn hng u t mc d khng nm gi ton b ri ro nhng cng trc tip gin tip duy tr mt s danh mc chng khon lin quan n bt ng sn. Hu qu l hng lot ngn hng u t ln lt bo co cc khon l kinh doanh. Lehman l mt trong nhng ngn hng u t tham gia su vo hot ng chng khon ha tn dng bt ng sn. c tch ra t American Express nm 1994, Lehman xy dng cho mnh mt

thng hiu mnh v cc sn phm c thu nhp c nh ni chung v tri phiu ni ring. S dnh lu su ca Lehman vo lnh vc ny l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn chnh dn n kt cc ngy hm nay. Lehman lng trc c vn v c gng khng dnh nhiu vo tn dng bt ng sn di chun. Trong s danh mc lin quan n bt ng sn khong 60 t USD th tn dng bt ng sn di chun chim di 2 t USD. Tuy nhin, vi s lan rng ca khng hong tn dng m tn dng di chun ch l mi la ban u th Lehman khng kp thot. Ngoi cc gi tri phiu lin quan n bt ng sn, Lehman cn u t trc tip hoc gin tip vo bt ng sn thng mi. Lehman c th cu trc cc giao dch ny thng qua cung cp vn n hoc vn ch s hu cho cc cng ty con hoc lin doanh u t bt ng sn. Khi th trng bt ng sn i xung th cc gi tr bt ng sn thng mi ny cng gim theo. Ti thi im cui thng 8, Lehman nm danh mc khong 52 t USD lin quan n bt ng sn, trong 24 t USD chng khon bt ng sn nh , 17 t USD chng khon bt ng sn thng mi v 11 t u t trc tip. So vi tng quan tng ti sn khong 600 t USD v vn ch khong 20 t USD th y l mt danh mc ln. Gim c iu hnh ca Lehman, Dick Fuld, l ngi gn b tm huyt vi Lehman trong sut 4 thp k v l ngi cho li Lehman trong 14 nm qua. Vn l ngi thn trng, ng gip Lehman vt qua cuc khng hong nm 1998 vi s sp ca qu u c Long-Term Capital Management - mt khch hng ln ca Lehman.

Chnh cuc khng hong ny gip Lehman pht trin mt chin lc kinh doanh ph hp cng vi mt h thng qun tr ri ro tt nht ph Wall. Tuy nhin, s bng n kinh t ton cu trong 3-4 nm gn y cng vi chin lc m rng lm Dick Fuld thay i chin lc kinh doanh ca Lehman sang cc hot ng ri ro hn, trong c bt ng sn. Cuc khng hong tn dng lm hng lot tn tui u ri vo vng xoy ch khng ch c Lehman. Cc ngn hng UBS, Citi, Merrill Lynch, Bear Steans, Morgan Stanley, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae u gnh chu cc khon l nng n vi tng s ln ti hng trm t USD. S nhn vin sa thi ti cc trung tm ti chnh ln ti hng nghn.

Ngay trc lc Lehman hp hi, hng lot cc tn tui nh Merrill Lynch, AIG, Washington Mutual cng ri vo tnh trng tng t.

Vy ti sao ch c Lehman chu ci cht thm nh vy?

1. S thiu sng sut v quyt on ca ban lnh o

Chnh cch thc gii quyt khng hong thiu sng sut v quyt on ca Ban lnh o Lehman y Lehman vo th chn tng. Vn ca Lehman khng mi v c cnh bo trong mt thi gian di. Trong 6 thng gn y, mt vi ln tnh hnh ca Lehman dy sng. Lehman khng t hn 3 ln b qua c hi t cu mnh. C hi th nht :l c hi tng vn khi c th lm d dng. Sau khi Bear Steans tht th, Lehman tin hnh tng vn vo u thng 4 chun b cho cuc chin. Lehman huy ng thm 4 t USD vn thng qua pht hnh c phiu u i. Mc d t l ng k mua c phiu ca nh u t rt cao, vt xa s vn 4 t USD cn huy ng song Lehman t chi pht hnh thm vn, cho rng nh th . C hi th hai : cng l c hi tng vn sau khi bo co kt qu qu 2 b l 2,8 t USD. y l ln u tin Lehman bo co kt qu kinh doanh l t khi nim yt. Ngay lp tc, Lehman tin hnh huy ng thm 6 t USD vn trong c 4 t USD c phiu ph thng v 2 t USD c phiu u i nhm b p s l qu 2. Ln ny t l ng k mua c phiu cng rt cao song Lehman cng t chi khng pht hnh thm, cho rng th l . C hi th ba :n khi kt qu qu 3 chun b n ngy cng b v th trng n on s l 4 t USD. Ln ny Lehman thc s nhn ra s nghim trng v tin hnh tm nh u t chin lc bn 25% ngn hng. ng thi Lehman cng a ra hng lot k hoch ti c cu bao gm bn mt phn mng qun l ti sn tng tin mt, chia tch ngn hng thnh 2 cng ty (spin off), cng ty tt v cng ty xu. D kin cng ty xu (bad bank) s nm gi ton b ti sn xu lin quan n bt ng sn v khng nim yt nhm trnh p dng k ton gi tr hp l (fair value). Tuy nhin, lc ny tnh th thay i v kh khn hn nhiu. Cuc m phn vi Ngn hng Pht trin Hn Quc (KDB) ng l ra c th kt thc song Lehman khng lm c iu do s bt ng v gi.

V kha cnh ny, Dick Fuld km hn John Thain, CEO ca Merrill Lynch vi thnh tch bn mnh cho BOA trong ch mt ngy Ch nht. Lehman nh mt c hi th ba, v cng l c hi cui cng t cu mnh.
1. Nguyn nhn khc

Ngoi 2 nguyn nhn trn th vn c cc nguyn nhn khc dn n s sp ca Lehman Brothers Chnh ph M Nhn li lch s 6 thng qua, nhiu ngi s hi ti sao FED cu Bear Stearns bng cch cung cp 29 t USD cho JP Morgan mua, cu Freddie Mac v Fannie Mae bng cch tip qun trc tip, cu AIG bng vic tung ra 85 t USD mua 80% c phn. V ti sao FED khng lm nh vy vi Lehman, bank of America hoc Barclays mua li Lehman, m Lehman li cht thm nh vy?

Thi im Lehman cht rt bt li cho ngn hng ny. Lehman v Bear c nhiu im tng ng v u l ngn hng u t, do vic cu Bears m khng cu Lehman c l do vn thi im. Th nht, sau khi Bear cht, Chnh ph M c dch v cho vay chit khu da trn ti sn m bo (discount window) nhm cung cp vn cho ngn hng u t gp kh khn thanh khon. Tuy nhin ci cht ca Lehman li khng phi l ci cht do thanh khon, nn c n ny cha c c hi s dng. Th hai, Lehman nguy kch ng lc nh im ca cuc khng hong cng Merrill Lynch, Wamu v AIG. Vn ri ro o c (moral hazard) tr nn trm trng hn ht, v nu cu tt c, Chnh ph s to ra mt tin l rt xu, khuyn khch cc tp on tham gia thm cc hot ng ri ro. Chnh ph mun khi t nhn hiu rng h phi t gii quyt vn ca chnh h. Cn phi c mt s hy sinh no th trng hiu c iu ny.

Hn na, thi im gn cuc bu c M cng rt nhy cm khi khng hong ti chnh tr thnh ti tranh lun gia 2 ng c vin tng thng ng Dn ch v ng Cng ha. Vic dng tin thu ca dn i gii cu cc tp on ti chnh cn mt l do thuyt phc cao. S hy sinh lc ny c l l iu cn thit cho th trng? Chn ai trong s ny vi chi ph thp nht cho x hi? Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae vi t cch l 2 tp on hot ng c Chnh ph bo lnh nhm cung cp tn dng bt ng sn cho ngi dn, do 2 tp on ny khng th cht. AIG l tp on bo him ln, cung cp hng triu hp ng bo him cho ngi dn. Vi s ti sn khng l trn 1,000 t USD, AIG c l khng phi l s la chn cho phi hy sinh. S la chn tt nht ca Chnh ph M l p khi t nhn phi t cu Lehman. Nu khng c, th Lehman s phi hy sinh. C l Chnh ph tnh ht iu ny th hin qua s cng rn ca FED v B Ti Chnh trong phin hp cui tun qua nhm tm ra phng n gii cu Lehman. Th su, ngy 11/9: Trong sut hai gi hp, Gim c Geithner ca Ngn hng Nh nc bang New York cng vi B trng Ti chnh Paulson t thi nghim khc. H nhn mnh Chnh ph s khng chi ra tin ngn sch. Geithner tuyn b khng thng xt: Cn c gii php ca ngnh, bt k l g. y khng phi ni v mt ngn hng, y l ni v c ngnh. Nu cc v khng to c gii php, k tip s n lt cc v. Hu ht cc ngn hng im tht. Nhng mt s ln ting: ti sao h phi b tin ra can thip khi Lehman t mnh to ra s c? C ba ngn hng t mun ng ra mua, nhng HSBC nhanh chng rt li nh. Cn li Bank of America v Barclays, c hai nu r l h ch mua nu Chnh ph ng chu mt phn l. Chnh ph chi 30 t USD h tr v JPMorgan Chase mua nng Bear Stern, Chnh ph cng b ra 200 t USD cu Fannie v Freddie ngay tun trc . Nhng c hai v i din Chnh ph t ra rt rn: s khng tham gia v ny. Khi mi bn u khng lui bc, mt iu r: Lehman ch cn

l mt xc cht. Geithner bo cho cc cng ty bt u ln k hoch thanh l c trt t. Lehman Brothers thu ba chuyn gia vit k hoch ph sn. S tn nhn ca th trng Ngoi 3 nhm nhn t trn, ci cht ca Lehman cn do mt phn s tn nhn ca th trng. C phiu Lehman b bn khng. Cc nh u c bn khng (short sale) Lehman t cc vi vic c phiu s gim gi mnh. Vic bn khng c thc hin thng qua vay c phiu bn trc v mua quyn bn c phiu (put option). Tuy vic bn khng khng c g sai song n chnh l nguyn nhn to ra cc tin n sai s tht nhm h gi c phiu Lehman. iu ny lm mt lng tin ca th trng vo Lehman v y Lehman dn ri vo th bt li. T khi Lehman cng b kt qu l qu 2 th cc hot ng bn khng din ra mnh m. C phiu Lehman gim thp hn nhiu so vi gi tr ghi s l 30 USD. Vo thng 7, c phiu Lehman ch cn 15 USD tng ng mc vn ho 10 t, c tnh bng gi tr th trng ca cng ty qun l ti sn ca Lehman l Neuberger Berman. Ci cht ca Lehman gy nh hng ln cho th trng ti chnh. Mt ln sng khng hong nim tin lan rng ton cu s to ra ln sng bn tho chng khon. Hng lot i tc cung cp vn cho Lehman k c cc c ng c th chu cc khon tn tht nng n. Vi quy m ti sn trn 600 t USD v hng ngn t USD hp ng phi sinh, vic thanh l ti sn s v cng kh khn v lm gi chng khon v bt ng sn cng thm suy gim. Cc nh u t nm gi tri phiu v cho vay hoc cc hp ng phi sinh vi Lehman s chu cc khon l ln. T mc vn ha 45 t USD vo nh im 2007, gi y gi tr ca Lehman gn nh v s 0. Cc c ng mi u t thm 10 t USD vn vo Lehman trong 6 thng tr thnh tay trng. Vi vic Barclays ch tip qun mt phn hot ng ca Lehman sau khi ph sn, th hng chc ngn nhn vin ti chnh s mt vic lm. Khng hong nim tin s ng bng th trng tn dng v th trng chng khon ha. y l cc mng quan trng ca th trng vn. Chi ph huy ng vn trn th trng s tng cao. Vic huy ng vn cho th trng bt ng sn trong vi nm ti gn nh khng th.

I.

nh hng ca s sp *Ci cht ca Lehman gy nh hng ln cho th trng ti chnh. Mt ln sng khng hong nim tin lan rng ton cu s to ra ln sng bn tho chng khon. Hng lot i tc cung cp vn cho Lehman k c cc c ng c th chu cc khon tn tht nng n. Vi quy m ti sn trn 600 t USD v hng ngn t USD hp ng phi sinh, vic thanh l ti sn s v cng kh khn v lm gi chng khon v bt ng sn cng thm suy gim. Cc nh u t nm gi tri phiu v cho vay hoc cc hp ng phi sinh vi Lehman s chu cc khon l ln. T mc vn ha 45 t USD vo nh im 2007, gi y gi tr ca Lehman gn nh v s 0. Cc c ng mi u t thm 10 t USD vn vo Lehman trong 6 thng tr thnh tay trng. Vi vic Barclays ch tip qun mt phn hot ng ca Lehman sau khi ph sn, th hng chc ngn nhn vin ti chnh s mt vic lm. Khng hong nim tin s ng bng th trng tn dng v th trng chng khon ha. y l cc mng quan trng ca th trng vn. Chi ph huy ng vn trn th trng s tng cao. Vic huy ng vn cho th trng bt ng sn trong vi nm ti gn nh khng th. Mc d ci tn Lehmen Brothers b xa trn bn ti chnh ngn hng th gii t ngy 15/9/2008, song hu qu ca n i vi nn kinh t th gii cho n nay vn cha th khc phc ht, v pha sau khng hong ti chnh l khng hong kinh t. Nhu cu v tn dng cn kit, kh nng cung cp vn ca cc ngn hng gim. Cc nh sn xut gp kh khn khi phi gii ta mt khi lng ln hng tn ng. iu ny dn n s nh tr trong sn xut, khin khu vc vic lm b nh hng t ngt v mnh m. Hi thng 9, CEO Deutsche Bank, ngn hng t nhn ln nht nc c, ng Josef Ackermann cho rng s hn lon ca th trng hin nay lm ng nh li nhng ngy sp ca Ngn hng Lehman Brothers - ngi n ca cuc khng hong ti chnh nm 2008. *Khng hong ti chnh Hoa K 2007-2009 Nguyn nhn 1: Chng khon ha

Thc t, th trng nh bt u t iu chnh t nm 2005 khin cho gi nh t gim v cht lng ti sn m bo cho cc MBS v cc CDO gim theo. Ri ro mang tnh h thng lm cho khng hong tn dng nh th cp n ra vo thng 5 nm 2006 khi m nhiu t chc pht hnh MBS v CDO cng nh mt s t chc ti chnh m trong danh mc ti sn ca mnh c nhiu MBS v CDO sp . Tip theo , khng hong ti chnh n ra vo thng 8 nm 2007 khi n lt c cc SPV v SIV cng sp , ri pht trin thnh khng hong ti chnh ton cu t thng 9/2008 khi c nhng t chc ti chnh khng l nh Lehman Brothers sp .

Nguyn nhn 2: Bong bng th trng nh Thng 8 nm 2008, n lt Lehman Brothers, mt t chc ti chnh vo loi ln nht v lu i nht ca M, b ph sn. Tip sau Lehman l mt s cng ty khc. Thng 9 nm 2008, Thng vin Hoa K thng qua o lut n nh Kinh t Khn cp 2008 cho php b trng Ti chnh Hoa K chi ti 700 t USD cu nn ti chnh ca nc ny bng cch mua li cc khon n xu ca ngn hng, c bit l cc chng khon m bo bng bt ng sn.

*USD gim gi mnh do hiu ng Lehman Brothers Ni lo ngi ngy cng tng v th trng h thng ti chnh M trong bi cnh ngn hng u t Lehman Brothers ca M ph sn khin gi ng USD st gim mnh trong phin giao dch u tun ny ti th trng chu . V sng nay 16/09, USD gim mnh nht trong thp k qua so vi Yn. Cc thng gia cho rng Cc d tr lin bang c th s phi ct gim t l li sut thc y cc th trng ti chnh. Lehman Brothers sm ngy 15/9 cng cng b d nh n xin ph sn "nhm bo v ti sn v ti a ha gi tr ca mnh". Chiu 15/9 ti Xingapo, gi ng USD gim xung 105,54 yn v 1,4421 USD i 1 euro, so vi 107,92 yn v 1,4229 USD cui tun trc ti Niu Yoc. Cc th trng Nht Bn ngy 15/9 ng ca ngh l. Lehman Brothers ch l mt trong hng lot cc cng ty hng u nc M sp khi khng hong bong bng bt ng sn M bng n t ma h

nm 2007. Countrywide Financial, cng ty ti chnh tng nm gi 20% th trng cho vay bt ng sn M, ch trong vi thng b y n st b vc ph sn v buc phi bn li cho Bank of America vo thng 1 nm 2008. Hai thng sau , s st gi khng kim sot ni ca cc khon u t ti chnh bt ng sn gn nh khin Bear Stearns, mt trong nm ngn hng u t ln nht ca M, t lit v buc phi chm dt hot ng sau 85 nm tn ti. Vo thng 7, chnh ph M buc phi tip qun ngn hng bt ng sn IndyMac sau khi ngn hng mt kh nng thanh ton tin gi do khng i c cc khon cho vay nh t. Vi gi tr ti sn 32 t la, IndyMac nh du mt s v ngn hng ln th nh trong lch s nc M. Ngy 7 thng 9, ch vi ngy trc khi Lehman Brothers ph sn, chnh ph M cng b buc phi tip qun Fannie Mae v Freddie Mac, hai cng ty s hu v bo lnh trn 5000 t la bt ng sn, tng ng gn 50% gi tr th trng bt ng sn M, sau nhng bo ng v tnh trng cn kit vn ca hai cng ty ny. Cuc khng hong bt ng sn nhanh chng lm suy yu h thng ti chnh - ngn hng M v lan rng ra ton th gii. S st gi trn th trng bt ng sn v cc khon u t ti chnh bt ng sn nhanh chng lm hao ht ngun vn v h thp ch s tn dng ca cc tp on ti chnh ngn hng. Ch tnh n thng 7 nm 2008, cc tp on ny bo mt trn 435 t la. Hn th na, khng cn mt ai dm chc v gi tr ch thc ca cc khon u t ti chnh bt ng sn c c tnh l hng ngn t la vn nm trn s sch ca cc tp on ti chnh ngn hng. Mt lot nhng n lc ca chnh ph M bao gm vic cho php cc ngn hng u t c trc tip vay tin t Cc D tr Lin bang hay vic ni lng nhng hn ch cho vay gia cng ty m - con cng khng gip sc cho h thng ti chnh hon ton ht hi sau mt nm chng chi vi cuc khng hong nh t. Trong bi cnh , s kin ngn hng u t Lehman Brothers mt hng chc t USD gi tr c phiu ch trong vi ngy khng ch chn ng v lm

o ln th trng ti chnh Wall Street, m nhanh chng to nn cn a chn ton cu, y cuc khng hong ln ti nh im mi. Nhiu cng ty ln, vn tng l i tc hoc nh u t ca Lehman Brothers, l nhng i tng u tin chu nh hng trc tip. Ngay sau khi Lehman Brothers tuyn b ph sn, ba qu u t vo th trng tin t, mt loi hnh qu u t vn c coi l an ton gn nh gi tit kim, tuyn b khng cn vn php nh. Nghim trng hn, ni lo s v kh nng v n hng lot khin cc ngn hng v cng ty ti chnh xit cht hu bao, y li sut ngn hng v li sut lin ngn hng tng vt tng gi. Cc ngun cung v ti chnh bng tr nn cn kit, dn n nguy c sp hon ton ca h thng ti chnh v mt cuc khng hong kinh t ton din. Mi e da v kh nng bng n ca mt cn i suy thoi kinh t buc chnh ph cc nc phi can thip khn cp. Ch trong ba ngy 16, 17 v 18 thng 9, cc ngn hng trung ng M, Ty u, Anh, Nht, Canada, Nga v n phi bm hng trm t l vo th trng tin t nhm cu h thng ti chnh khi nguy c t lit. Ngy 16 thng 9 nm 2008, trong mt ng thi tri ngc vi quyt nh t chi bo lnh Lehman Brothers ch hai ngy trc , Cc D Tr Lin Bang v B Ngn Kh M quyt nh 85 t la vo cu tp on AIG. Quyt nh ca chnh ph M khng ngoi mc ch ngn chn s v dy chuyn m theo nhiu chuyn gia s khng th cu vn c nu AIG ph sn. Ngay sau , mt lot cc i sch c coi l quy m nht k t cuc i Suy Thoi nhng nm 1930 nhanh chng c a ra nhm cu h thng ti chnh khi nguy c sp . Ngy 19 thng 9, B Ngn kh M tuyn b s bo lnh tin u t vo cc qu u t tin t nhm ngn chn kh nng rt tin hng lot ra khi loi hnh qu u t vi trn 3500 t la ny. Ngy 20 thng 9 nm 2008, chnh quyn Bush trnh ln Quc hi M mt k hoch cu tr khng l vi chi ph c tnh 700 t la. K hoch ny bao gm vic chnh ph mua li cc ti sn u t ti chnh bt ng sn t cc t chc ngn hng ti chnh nhm gip cc t chc ny trt b cc ti sn xu, phc hi li tnh thanh khon v ch s tn dng. Trong mt s phi hp hnh ng cha tng c tin l nhm ngn chn

u c gim gi c phiu, y ban Chng khon M, Canada, Anh, Ailen, Php, c, H lan, c, i loan ng lot cm hoc hn ch hot ng bn khng chng khon. Nhng i sch quyt lit ny em n sinh kh mi cho th trng chng khon. Ch trong hai ngy 18 v 19 thng 9, cc ch s chng khon c bn ca M nhy vt gn 9%. Cc bin php cp tc ca chnh ph M dng nh thnh cng trong vic tm thi cn bng li tm l cho gii u t. S ph sn ca Lehman Brothers v nhng s kin din nh du s leo thang ca mt cuc khng hong ti chnh m theo nh gi ca nhiu chuyn gia l ti t nht k t cuc i Suy Thoi kinh t vo nhng nm 1930 ca th k trc. Cuc khng hong ny c nhng du hiu t hn mt nm trc, bt u bng s st gim ca th trng bt ng sn M. Mc d vy, nhng din bin trong tun qua vn gy khng t sng st. Ch vi tun trc y, nhiu chuyn gia M cn trch dn cc ch s v m khng nh kinh t M vn c th trnh c suy thoi. Dng nh nc M v c th gii ang phi ng u vi mt cuc khng hong m nguyn nhn cng nh hu qu kinh t, x hi v chnh tr ca n vn cha lng ht c. Khon cu tr khn cp 700 t la hay quyt nh hn ch hot ng bn khng chng khon c cc chuyn gia kinh t nh gi l cn thit nhm ngn chn cuc khng hong ti chnh lan rng thnh mt cn i suy thoi ca kinh t M v ton cu. Tuy nhin, gii php lu di vn l ci cch h thng php lut v b my qun l nh nc i vi th trng chng khon v ti chnh. Sau cuc bu c tng thng v quc hi M vo thng 11 ti, mt chnh ph mi d lnh o bi ng Cng ha hay Dn ch, cng s khng thot khi sc p phi thng qua nhng o lut nhm gia tng tnh minh bch ca cc qu u t (hedge funds) v ca cc khon u t vo chng khon phi sinh. Tin trnh ti t chc v thng nht h thng cc c quan gim st th trng chng khon v ti chnh v chuyn dn s qun l cc tp on bo him t cp tiu bang v lin bang c xut t thng 4 va

qua s c thc y nhanh chng. Ngoi ra, thng qua kh nng cho vay tin trc tip ti cc ngn hng u t v cng ty ti chnh cng nh quyn iu hnh trc tip qu cu tr 700 t la, quyn lc iu tit v khng ch th trng ca Cc D tr Lin bang v B Ngn kh s ln cao. Quan im v mt chnh ph ti thiu v mt th trng t iu tit vn c nhiu nhm chnh tr ti M ng h s khng cn thch hp mi trng hin ti. Tri li, b my v quyn lc ca chnh quyn lin bang s tng nhanh nh kinh nghim nc M tng chng kin t h qu ca nhng ci cch sau cuc i Suy Thoi ca nhng nm 1930s. Hin ti vn cn qu sm nh gi thit hi ca cuc khng hong bt ng sn ti chnh. Qu Tin t Quc t IMF c lng thit hi i vi cc tp on ti chnh ngn hng c th ln ti 945 t l. Con s ny cha tnh n thit hi trc tip i vi ngi tiu dng M. K t thng 8 nm 2007 n ht thng 8 nm 2008, trn 770000 cn nh M b ngn hng xit n do cc gia nh khng kh nng tr n tin vay mua nh. Cuc khng hong bt ng sn cng khin hng trm ngn ngi mt vic lm. Theo thng k ca chnh ph M, nn kinh t M mt 605000 vic lm trong 8 thng u nm 2008, y t l tht nghip ln 6.1%, cao nht trong nm nm tr li y. S mt gi ca cc ti sn nh t cng s y t l n trn ti sn s hu ca ngi tiu dng M ln cao hn con s 18% hin nay, bt buc h phi tht cht hu bao. S thay i thi quen tiu dng ny s tc ng ln ln nn kinh t M vn ph thuc chnh vo tiu dng ni a, cng nh nn kinh t ca cc quc gia xut khu vo M. Khon tin cu tr 700 t la, cha k hng trm t la chnh ph M chi trong nm qua nhm cu nguy cho cc cng ty bt ng sn, ti chnh v ngn hng, s l gnh nng ln i vi ngn sch ca chnh ph M trong nhim k ti. Hin ti, cha k nhng khon tin cu tr ny, thm ht ngn sch trong

nm 2008 c tnh ln ti con s 482 t , cao nht trong lch s, v s tin n ca chnh ph M ln ti con s k lc trn 9.600 t l, tng ng khong 60% Tng thu nhp Quc dn ca M. Gnh nng ngn sch v i hi phi cp tc ci cch b my chnh quyn, phc hi h thng ti chnh ngn hng, s hn ch chnh ph mi ca M trong vic theo ui cc chng trnh quc ni v cc cam kt quc t, c bit l kh nng duy tr hai cuc chin tranh ti Afghanistan v Iraq.
I.

Bi hc rt ra t s sp ca ngn hng Lehman Brothers y l v ph sn ln nht trong lch s nc M, nhng nhng g xy ra sau mi thc s ng ghi nh. u tin l s hong lon trong khi ngn hng, e da ti trt t ti chnh th gii, tip n l nhng n lc cha tng c v quy m ca chnh ph cc nc trn ton cu nhm trn p khng hong. Cu hi l: Chng ta c th rt ra c nhng g t s sp ny? C ba bi hc chnh: Th nht l h thng ti chnh phc tp li rt mng manh. Th hai, s can thip ca chnh ph c th gi cho khng hong ti chnh khng lan rng thnh mt thm ha kinh t nh thi i Suy thoi. Th ba, chnh ph cc nc gp kh khn khi mun a ra bt c hnh ng no ngn chn h thng ti chnh lp li sai lm trong tng lai bi nh vy s l can thip qu mnh tay vo th trng. Bi hc th nht: S mng manh ca h thng ti chnh. Lehman Brothers ph sn thng c coi l sai lm ln nht ca chnh ph M, iu ny gy ra phn ng dy chuyn. Cc qu th trng tin t hn lon sau khi mt qu ln cng b ang s hu nhiu mn n tr thnh v gi tr ca Lehman Brothers. Cc qu ti chnh ti London ph thuc vo ngun vn u t t ngn hng ny khng th tip tc hot ng bi cc ti khon ti chi nhnh ca Lehman Brothers ti Anh b phong ta. Nhiu vn tng t xy ra trn khp th gii. Hn na, cc th ch ti chnh b t lit v tm l s hi. Cc ngn hng khng cn tin tng ln nhau, v khng mun cho vay ln nhau na. H thng ti chnh t ra qu yu km gii quyt kh khn. iu ny dn ti bi hc th hai. u thp k 30, nhiu ting ni c trng lng ti B Ti chnh v Cc D tr Lin bang M ln ting cho rng nhng hy sinh trong khng hong ti chnh l cn thit ci t kinh t, loi b nhng su mc ra khi h thng nh B trng Ti chnh Andrew Mellon ni vi Tng thng M Herbert Hoover. Cui nm ngoi, vn cn

mt vi ngi ln ting bo v lun im ny. Tuy nhiu sau khi Lehman Brothers sp , khng ai ti B Ti chnh hay Fed cn nhc ti iu ny. Quan im chung ca mi nh lnh o ti M cng nh trn th gii l khng hong phi c ngn chn bng bt c gi no. V ci gi phi tr l cc k hoch cu tr ti chnh mo him vi hng nghn t la cng qu. Cch ny rt tn km, hn n, khng cng bng, nhng c hiu qu. Ti t b nguyn tc th trng t do cu h thng th trng t do, Tng thng M George W. Bush tuyn b vo thng 12 nm ngoi. Nhim v ti thi im ny c thc hin tt. i mt vi khng hong ti chnh cn ti t hn v , s can thip mnh m ca chnh ph trnh c mt cuc i Suy thoi th hai. Mc d y vn l t khng hong ti t nht k t sau Chin tranh Th gii II, c nhiu du hiu cho thy kinh t khp ni trn th gii ang dn hi phc, v iu ny l nh nhng quyt nh ca nhng ngi iu hnh chnh ph. Cng phi ni n rng chnh nhng quyt nh ca Quc hi, ca chnh quyn Bush v Clinton nhiu nm trc khng hong l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn chnh gy ra thm ha: T chnh sch ni lng thiu cn nhc s qun l h thng ngn hng v ti chnh phi sinh n vic khuyn khch mua nh qu mc. Gn nh khng c iu g c tin hnh sa cha nhng sai lm ny, hoc hn ch bt nhng hot ng qu gii hn ca h thng ti chnh. iu ny dn ti bi hc th ba: Chnh ph s gp rt nhiu kh khn to s thay i nu khng c khng hong. T , c th rt ra nhng kinh nghim phng nga ri ro cho cc ngn hng khc: -Th nht: Mt cn i v m lun l mi e da i vi nn kinh t ton cu ni chung cng nh tng quc gia ni ring. Do , qu trnh hoch nh v thc thi cc chnh sch kinh t v m cn kt hp s tng trng v n nh trn c s hiu qu ca nn kinh t. Bo m s pht trin bn vng, tnh h thng, cu trc ca nn kinh t trong mi thi k theo hng kt hp hi ha li ch trc mt v lu di ca mi ngn hng. -Th hai: Pht huy vai tr ca h thng gim st ti chnh quc gia. H thng ny vi cc mc tiu bo m s an ton v lnh mnh ca cc nh ch ti chnh, gim thiu ri ro h thng, bo m s cng bng v hiu qu ca th trng, bo v quyn li ca ngi s dng dch v ti chnh v nh u t nn c vai tr quan trng trong pht trin v n nh kinh t v m. H thng gim st quc gia bao gm cc c quan gim st c xy dng theo cc m hnh: Da trn c s th ch; theo hng

chc nng v theo hng hp nht. Mi m hnh c nhng u, nhc im ring, c xy dng gn vi bi cnh lch s v cu trc h thng ti chnh, cu trc v truyn thng chnh tr, quy m quc gia v quy m lnh vc ti chnh. Khi cc tp on ra i v pht trin, kinh doanh a ngnh, cc sn phm ti chnh ngy cng tr nn phc tp hn th m hnh th ch, m hnh theo chc nng s bc l nhng hn ch cn c thay th bng m hnh theo hng hp nht. -Th ba: h thng ngn hng lun ng vai tr tr ct trong th trng ti chnh, v vy, cn nng cao vai tr, v th ca ngn hng nh nc trong vic thc hin chc nng ngn hng trung ng v chc nng qun l nh nc i vi hot ng tin t, ngn hng trn c s hon thin th ch theo thng l v chun mc quc t, phi hp vi cc c quan trong xy dng v thc hin chnh sch kinh t v m, tng cng hot ng thanh tra, gim st, pht trin cc cng c d bo, phng nga ri ro, bo m an ton h thng ngn hng. -Th t: coi trng qun tr ri ro tn dng v ri ro thanh khon i vi cc ngn hng thng mi. Tn dng l hot ng c bn em li nhiu li nhun cho cc ngn hng thng mi, song cng tim n nhiu ri ro vi nhng hu qu kh lng. Qun tr ri ro tn dng trc ht cn tp trung kim sot cc hot ng cho vay vo cc lnh vc mo him, nh bt ng sn, chng khon, cc sn phm tn dng phi sinh. Mt khc, cn hon thin h thng chm im tn dng v xp hng khch hng trn c s lin kt gia cc ngn hng thng mi xy dng v hon chnh h thng d liu y v chnh xc nht v ti chnh v quan h ca khch hng vi cc ngn hng thng mi. Thanh khon l kh nng ca ngn hng trong vic bo m p ng y , kp thi cc nhu cu v ngn qu. Kh nng thanh khon l mt du hiu quan trng cho bit tnh trng hot ng ca ngn hng. Qun tr ri ro thanh khon cn tp trung vo vic d tnh thay i tng tin gi v tng cho vay trn c s xy dng cc m hnh ton hc v phn tch cc kch bn dn n s thay i c nhng bin php ph hp trong huy ng vn v cho vay. -Th nm: chun ha h thng thng tin. Cng vi qu trnh pht trin kinh t x hi v ton cu ha, h thng thng tin ngy cng tr nn quan trng. Mi chnh sch, quyt nh iu tit nn kinh t cn da trn lung thng tin chun xc, minh bch v kp thi. V vy, cn hnh thnh cc c quan chuyn bit trong vic thu thp, cung cp thng tin v quy nh cc t chc, c nhn cn c trch nhim cung cp, cng b thng tin c lin quan, trnh tnh trng thng tin phn tn v thiu chnh xc gy nh hng n vic ra quyt nh.

-Th su: coi trng cc yu t to nn s pht trin bn vng ca nn kinh t; bo m tng trng kinh t nhanh phi i lin vi nng cao hiu qu kinh t - x hi, gn tng trng vi gii quyt tt cc vn x hi v mi trng. y mnh xut khu phi i lin vi pht trin ng u th trng trong nc. VI.Tnh trng hin nay ca ngn hng Lehman Brothers ng vo ngy 15/9/2009, cc lut s ca Lehman Brothers gi n kin Barclays Capital (Anh) ln To n Lin bang M Manhattan (New York) vi co buc Barclays Capital kim li mt cch khng cng bng ti 8,2 t USD t vic mua li mt s ti sn ca Lehman Brothers ti M v nay kin i li s tin ny. Mi lo ngi v s sp ca cc nh ch ti chnh sau s ra i ca Lehman brothers lm tc nghn knh tn dng lien ngn hang do ngn hang khng cn tin tng nhau na. Cc ngn hang u t khng th tip cn cc ngun vn mi, trong khi chi ph huy ng vn gia tang mnh, l hot ng ngy cng gia tng. Khi khch hang t chc nh cc qu u c rt vn v ngng hoc gim giao dch vi cc ngn hang u t dn n gin on trong hot ng v lu chuyn dng tin, gy st gim doanh thu. Cc hot ng pht hnh chng khon ca doanh nghip b ngng tr trn phm vi ton cu. Ch trong vng 6 thng trong nm 2008, 3 tn tui ln trong 5 ngn hng ln ca nc m(Bear Stearns, Lehman Brother v Merrill Lynch ln lt bin mt thong qua st nhp hoc ph sn 3 nm sau v ph sn kinh hong, mt phn ca Lehman Brothers hi sinh iu kh khn nht vn cha qua. Ngn hng u t ny s phi bn i mt s ti sn cn li, t bt ng sn, chng khon Hn 3 nm sau khi ngn hng Lehman Brothers np n xin bo h ph sn v gy ra cn sng thn ti chnh gy chn ng th trng ton cu, vo ngy th Ba, cng ty bt ng sn trc thuc Lehman Brothers chnh thc thot khi tnh trng ti cu trc sau ph sn v sn sng tr li tin cho cc ch n. Th nhng iu kh khn nht vn cha qua. Ngn hng u t ny s phi bn i mt s ti sn cn li, t bt ng sn, chng khonCng ty bt ng sn trc thuc ngn hng ang vng vo mt lot cc cuc chin php l, ch n kiu nh JP Morgan Chase mun ly li tin.

Lehman Brothers cng b s bt u tr tin cho ch n vo ngy 17/04/2012. Khi Lehman Brothers np h s xin bo h ph sn vo ngy 15/09/2008, v ph sn theo chng 11 Lut Ph sn M ln nht trong lch s, hng lot s kin xy ra tip theo sau gy chn ng h thng ti chnh ton cu. Th trng n ngn hn khi gn nh ng sp ca ngay c i vi mt s cng ty hng u nh General Electric v nhm ngn hng u t mnh nh Goldman Sachs v Morgan Stanley. Chnh ph nhiu nc trn ton th gii buc phi can thip bng nhiu gi gii cu quy m ln vc dy h thng ti chnh ton cu. T khi bc vo qu trnh bo h sau ph sn, Lehman Brothers bn i kh nhiu ti sn. Hot ng ngn hng u t ct li c bn cho Barclays Capital v b phn kinh doanh tin t Neuberger Berman tan r. Vic cng ty bt ng sn thot khi tnh trng ph sn din ra sau khi qu trnh ti cu trc li ngn hng u t Lehman Brothers c cng b vo thng 12/2011. Theo tha thun , cc ch n s nhn c khong 65 t USD. Lehman Brothers - "i gia" ti chnh y quyn lc mt thi - hon tt giai on ph sn v ang trong qu trnh thanh l ti sn vi hot ng chnh trong nhng nm ti s l tr n cho cc ch tn dng v nh u t ca mnh. Trong mt thng bo mi y, Lehman cho bit, cng ty bt u tr n (c tng cng khong 65 t USD) vo ngy 17/4 ti. D kin, s tin c tr trong t u t nht l 10 t USD. ng thi ny l mt mc quan trng v mt php l ca Lehman, nhng khng phi l mt "s khai t tc th" i vi cng ty. Lehman s tip tc hot ng, vn ti tr s Manhattan. Steven Cohn, mt nhn vin thuc cng ty ti c cu Alvarez & Marsal cho bit, hin Lehman c t do hot ng (chng hn nh s khng cn phi xin php ta n khi mun bn ti sn na). giai on "nhn nhp" nht ca qu trnh ph sn, khong 735 ngi lm vic ti Lehman, so vi mc 433 ngi trong thng 1/2012. Trong khi , khi cha ph sn, i ng nhn lc ca Lehman ln n 25.000 ngi.

Lehman thot khi giai on ph sn trong bi cnh kinh t th gii vn chp chi: mc d kinh t M c du hiu phc hi, vi t l tht nghip gim, nhng bn kia b i Ty Dng, Hy Lp ang cht vt ti c cu n v nhiu nn kinh t chu u vn chm trong cnh u m. Tuy nhin, tnh hnh hin nay vn kh quan hn nhiu so vi hi nm 2008, thi im Lehman n xin ph sn. S sp ca Lehman hi thng 9/2008 lm rung chuyn cc th trng ti chnh ton cu v gp phn vo s tri dy ca cuc i suy thoi. Cc ch tn dng ang i Lehman tr hn 300 t USD. Vi khong 35 t USD tin mt hin c, Lehman s phi tin hnh thanh ton t hai cho cc ch tn dng vo thng 9 ti v sau s tr nh k khi bn c cc ti sn cn li (c khong 30 t USD). Trong mt thng tin c lin quan, tnh n thng 1/2012, Lehman chi hn 1,58 t USD ph dch v t vn, trong , c tin thu lut s v c vn./. *V ph sn ln nht trong lch s nc M c li thot Ngn hng u t Lehman Brothers Holdings, thuc din ph sn sut t thng 9/2008, s trnh by k hoch thot ph sn vo hm nay. Hm nay, ngi ng u ngn hng Lehman Brothers Holdings s ngh ta n ph sn cho php ch n b phiu vi k hoch tr n 65 t USD, bc quan trng gip ngn hng ny thot khi v ph sn ln nht trong lch s nc M. Ngn hng u t Lehman Brothers Holdings, thuc din ph sn sut t thng 9/2008, s trnh by k hoch thot ph sn trong phin iu trn ti ta n ph sn Manhattan. Nu k hoch ny c coi nh hp l, cc ch n s b phiu vo k hoch ny vo ngy 04/11/2011. Ty thuc vo vic cc ch n c chp nhn k hoch tr n hay khng, ta n s phn quyt cui cng vo khong u thng 12/2011. V ph sn ko di 3 nm ca ngn hng Lehman Brothers c th c li thot.

Qu trnh ny c th b tr hon nu Lehman phi gii quyt s phn i t pha cc ch n khng hi lng vi k hoch tr n ca Lehman. D Lehman nhn c s ng h ca mt s ch n quan trng nht, kh nhiu ch n vn phn i, trong c mt hip hi ngn hng c v t chc u t Mason Capital Management. H cho rng k hoch ca Lehman vn qu m h i vi ch dnh cho ch n ca nhng chi nhnh thuc thuc din ph sn. Lehman c 2 ch n ln nht ng h. Nhm tri ch khc ca Lehman Brothers, dn u bi Paulson & Co v Goldman Sachs v Morgan Stanley a ra k hoch ca h trc khi xem xt n k hoch ca Lehman. Hin Lamco l tn mi Lehman Brothers, vi s vn di dng ti sn cn li ca Lehman Brothers l 25 t USD v hai phn ba s nhn vin c. Con tnh ca cc v thm phn M khi h hi thi ngt cho ci xc khng hn ny sng li l nu bn n i by gi v nu cho n thc s b ph sn vnh vin th s tin thu v chng cn c bao nhiu, ng nhin khng th thanh ton n nn vi cc khch hng v ci vt ny s tn ti mi mi, nh vy tht chng hay ho g i vi nc M. Cho n sng li thm mt thi gian, h hi vng Lamco s kinh doanh thu c v 16 t USD tr n, li khng ph hoi nhng kinh nghim kinh doanh qu bu ca ngn hng ny. K vng ca cc v thm phn khng c g l kh hiu. Nhng mt ci tn mi cha c c mt ngn hng mi t mt ngn hng c. Ch nh vy thi th u c khc g ru c trong bnh mi

NGUN THAM KHO

http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehman_Brothers http://www.saga.vn/Sukiendoanhnghiep/Nghiencuutinhhuong1/13667.saga http://vneconomy.vn/20080916044025554P0C99/bai-hoc-mang-tenlehman-brothers.htm http://vnexpress.net/gl/kinh-doanh/quoc-te/2008/09/3ba06a0f/ http://www.ors.com.vn/print/1/32787/lehman-brothers-chet-chua-phai-dahet.aspx http://conn.vn/index.php/tin-khac/89-tai-nguyen/kinh-te/483-5-ngay-de-ketthuc-ngan-hang-huyen-thoai-nhat-nuoc-my.html http://www.thanhnien.com.vn/news/pages/200842/20081016011937.aspx http://forum4.aimoo.com/aitubinhdien/categroy/Ph-s-n-c-a-LehmanBrothers-Holding-Inc-1-275255.html)

http://vietstock.vn/ChannelID/773/Tin-tuc/150671-lehman-brothers-hoisinh.aspx http://www.google.com.vn/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3& sqi=2&ved=0CDYQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Ffclass.vaniercollege.qc.ca %2F~laroccag%2FFOV1-00043009%2FFOV100051364%2FLehman%2520Brothers%2520yr%25202007%2520Annual% 2520Report.pdf%3FFCItemID%3DS002288FE%26Plugin%3DLoft&ei=lbx2 T5yzE82uiQeDwaDvBA&usg=AFQjCNGGM_hStFbr346_49otmedl4RVdN w&sig2=3bIQwP7_VJ68mvsQCfoxQA. http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Lehman_Brothers_%28LEHMQ%29