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TIME VALUE OF

MONEY

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-2

1. OBJECTIVE

# Derive a valuation (pricing) equation based on cash flow (amount,

timing, & risk).

! What is $1 worth 10 years from today (Future Value)?

! What is $1 to be received in 10 years worth today (Present

Value)?

# Applications

! Loan amortization

! stated vs. effective interest charged

! rebate vs. low financing

! pricing of bonds (Chapter 7)

! pricing of stocks/firms (Chapter 7)

! What is the value of a particular division within a firm?

! How much value does a new project contribute to a firm?

! cash flow: amount, timing, and risk as reflected in k

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-3

2. TYPES OF VALUATION

L Based on investors' preferences and attitudes towards consumption

and risk.

| | | | time

period 0 1 2 3

s

CF $100 200 -100 ...

Note. Positive CF means receiving $ (inflow), negative CF

means paying $ (outflow)

Thus, given the CFs and how good the promise is, its risk, everyone

would agree on the value (price) of the income stream.

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-4

L Put $100 (CF) in a bank for one year at interest (i) = 10%

' principal % interest payment

' principal % (interest rate) × (principal) (1)

' $100 % (.1)($100)

' $100 × (1 % .1) ' $110

Thus, the CF is compounded at rate "i".

' 100(1% i)2 ' 100(1.1)2 ' 100(1.21) ' $121

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-5

where,

i / re-investment rate, return on investment,

cost of borrowing, opportunity cost,

compounding rate, interest rate

/ compounding factor

! Use calculator

! use table

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-6

FV of $1

i > 10%

i = 10%

$1 i=0%

# of periods

Notes:

(a) If interest rate "i" = 0, then FV of a CF is constant irrespective

of how far in the future you would be receiving it. sThe

horizontal line above represents this.

(b) Given "i", the greater the "n", # of periods in the future, the

greater the FV. Thus, FV and "n" are positively related.

(c) Given "n", the higher the "i" the higher the FV. Thus, FV and

"i" are positively related. i.e., they move in the same

direction.

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-7

L You are promised $100 one year from today

! It better be < 100; time value of money

! from (2)

FV1 = CF0 (1 + i)

FV1 (3)

Y CF0 '

(1 % i)

substitute in (3),

Y PV ' ' ' < 100

1% i 1% .1 1.1

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-8

Y PV ' ' ' < < 100

(1% i)2 (1% i)2 (1.1)2 1.1

CFn 1

PV ' ' CF n ' CF n [ PVIFi,n ]

(1 % i) n (1 % i)n

where,

i / discount rate

/ discount factor

7 Higher risk implies higher risk premium implies higher “i.”

! Given the CFs, the higher the i, the lower the value (PV).

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-9

PV of $1

$1 i = 0%

i = 10%

i > 10%

# of periods

Notes:

(a) If i = 0, then PV of a CF, say CF = $1, is constant at $1,

irrespective of how far in the future it is received.

(b) For a given "n", the higher the "i", the lower is PV.

(c) For a given "i", the larger the "n", the smaller the PV.

ˆ

PV and "i" are inversely related ] They move in opposite direction.

PV and "n" are inversely related ]They move in the opposite direction

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-10

Example 1: Calculation of PV

The IRS screwed up your tax return by $100. They offer you a

choice between $100 today or $102 next year. If 1-year government

guaranteed loans are being offered at 4.0%, which alternative would

you choose?

102

PV ' < 100

(1% .04)

Example 2: Calculating PV

The IRS makes you a new offer: $100 today or $105 next year.

Which would you choose?

$105 $105

PV ' ' > $100

(1 % i) 1 % .04

ˆ choose $105.

Alternatively, an investment with similar risk yields 4% return.

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-11

Example 3: Calculating PV

ATT owes you $100, and makes you an offer of $100 today or $105

next year. Which would you choose? Assume that return on similar

risky investments is 6%.

$105

PVATT ' < $100

(1 % .06)

ˆ choose $100 as

! The latter is higher reflecting default/bankruptcy risk.

Obviously if interest on similar investment as the ATT were

4%, then you would choose $105.

Return: Debt. The point I am trying to make here is that

bankruptcy is "bad", thus you would require a higher risk

premium to accept the ATT deal, which explains the difference

between the two interest rates.

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-12

5 ANNUITY

Definition: Equal CF over a # of equal length periods, paid at end

of period.

periods 0 1 2 3

CFs 0 $100 $100 ...

For FV,

periods 0 1 2 3

CFs 0 CF CF CF

value = ?

For PV,

periods 0 1 2 3

CFs 0 CF CF ...

value = ?

beginning and at the end. I think it is just more

confusing than it should be. My approach is easier.

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-13

Illustration 1: FV3 = ?

At end of each year, for 3 years, you put $100 in a bank (i=10%)

periods 0 1 2 3 FV

CFs 0 $100 $100 $100 = 100

100(1% .1)

= 110

100(1% .1)2

= 121

FV 331

Thus,

' 100[ 1 % (1% i)1 % (1% i)2]

' 100[FVIFA10%,3] ' 100[3.310]' $331

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-14

' CF × [ FVIFAi, n ]

# Thus, if CFs are equal, you do not need to compound each CF

separately as in Illustration 1.

! Each term separate! (As in Illustration 1: “long” method)

! Tables for FVIFA

for CF ' $100, i' 6%, n' 2;

Y FV2 ' 100[ FVIFA6%,2 ] ' 100[ 2.0600 ] ' $206

! calculator or computer

FVIFAi,n '

i

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-15

Given: i=6%, n=2

FVIFA6%, 2 = ?

FVIFA6%,2 ' ' 2.06

.06

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-16

Illustration 2

i=6%

| | |

period 0 1 2

CF 0 100 100

Value ?

100x[1/(1+.06)]= 94.3

100x[1/(1+.06)2]= 89.0

PV $183.3

Thus,

100 100 1 1

PV ' % ' 100 %

(1% i)1 (1% i)2 (1% i)1 (1% i)2

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-17

CF CF CF

PV ' % % ... %

(1 % i) (1 % i)2 (1 % i)n

' Sum of discounted CFs

1 1 1

' CF × % % ...%

(1 % i) (1 % i)2 (1 % i)n

' CF [PVIFAi,n ]

each CF separately as in Illustration 2.

! Each term separate ! (As in Illustration 2)

! Tables for PVIFA (PVIF of an Annuity)

! calculator or computer

1 1

PVIFAi,n ' &

i i(1% i)n

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-18

For i = .5%, n =5,

PVIFA = ?

1 1

PVIFA.5% , 5 ' &

.005 .005(1 % .005)5

' 200 & 195.07 ' 4.93

integer, as tables cannot accommodate for all possible

value ranges.

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-19

Given a loan with:

Amount of loan equal to $35,000; Payment = $4,998.1 per year

; n =30 years

What is the interest rate on the loan?

Solution:

Step 1: This is a PV problem. You know the value of the

loan today.

PV = CF [ PVIFAi,30 ]

35,000 = $4,998.1 [ PVIFAi,30 ]

PVIFAi,30 = $35000/$4,998.1 = 7.0027

ˆ i = 14%.

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-20

iNom = ( periodic rate ) x m = APR

m = # of periods in a year

if quarters, m=4; monthly, m=12

APR / Annual % Rate / Quoted Rate

EAR / Effective Annual Rate

m

iNom APR m

(1 % EAR) ' 1 % ' 1 %

m m

m

i Nom

Y EAR ' 1 % & 1

m

Intuitively:

Step 1: Convert annual rates to period rates. Thus, divide

annual rate by number of periods "m" in a year.

Step 2: Now for each year, you have "m" more periods.

Thus, you have to compound "m" times, i.e. raise to

power m: (. . . )m.

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-21

is the EAR on the loan?

4

0.08

EAR ' 1% & 1 ' (1.02)4 & 1 ' .0824 ' 8.24%

4

difference.

6 APPLICATIONS

Amortization Schedule

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-22

SALE! SALE!

only $10,999

5% APR on 36 month loan

SALE! SALE!

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-23

L Banks are making 10%, 36 month, car loans

Solution:

Step 1: This is a PV problem, as it deals with value of loans at

time of decision making (today) not in the future

.

Step 2: Alternatives

(a) low financing: $10,999 loan at 5%, n = 36

(payment).

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-24

PV = CF [ PVIFA ]

Total loan = payment [ PVIFA ]

total loan

Y payment '

[ PVIFA ]

$10,999 $10,999

payment ' ' ' $329.65

PVIFA 5% ,36 33.36

12

$10,499

payment ' ' $338.77

PVIFA 10% ,36

12

Low Financing

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-25

Fixed Payments

$10,000 loan, 10%, 5 years, annual payments

Principal Paid(c)

Balance Payment(a) Paid(b) Balance(d)

1 $10,000.00 $2,637.97 $1,000.00 $1,637.97 $8,362.02

2 8,362.03 2,637.97 836.20 1,801.77 6,560.25

3 6,560.25 2,637.97 656.03 1,981.95 4,578.30

4 4,578.30 2,637.97 457.83 2,180.14 2,398.16

5 2,398.16 2,637.97 239.82 2,398.16 0.00

Totals

$13,189.87 $3,189.87 $10,000.00

loan 10,000

(a) total payment ' ' ' $2,637.97

PVIFA10% ,5 3.7908

(b) interest paid ' (Balance)(interest rate) ' (10,000)(.1) '

(c) principal ' total payment & interest

(d) ending balance ' Beginning Balance & Principal paid

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-26

1 SUMMARY

T Value depends on

! Amount of CF

! Timing of CF

! Risk of CF

T

FVn ' Sum of Compounded Cash Flows

' CF × [ FVIFAi, n ]

investment, cost of borrowing, cost of financing, opportunity cost.

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-27

CF CF CF

T PV ' % % ... %

(1% i) (1% i)2 (1% i)n

' Sum of discounted CFs

1 1 1

' CF × % % ...%

(1% i) (1% i)2 (1% i)n

' CF [PVIFAi,n ]

m

i Nom APR m

T EAR ' 1 % & 1 ' 1 % & 1

m m

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-28

2 QUESTIONS

A. Agree/Disagree-Explain

1. The more the frequency of compounding, the larger the difference between stated and effective

interest rates.

2. If you win a $4 m. State of California lottery, it would necessarily have the same value as

winning $4 m. NY State lottery, assuming that the payments are identical.

5. "Congratulations! You have already won the California lottery." If inflation increases, then the

lottery's payoff would be worth less.

B. Numerical

1. Your 69-year old aunt has savings of $35,000. She has made arrangements to enter a home for

the aged on reaching the age of 80. Your aunt wants to decrease her savings by a constant

amount each year for ten years, with a zero balance remaining. How much can she withdraw

each year if she earns 6% annually on her savings? Her first withdrawal would be one year from

today.

2. Someone you know is about to retire. His firm has given him the option of retiring with a lump

sum of $20,000 or an annuity of $2,500 for ten years. Which is worth more now, if an interest

rate of 7% is utilized for the annuity? Do not consider taxes.

3. A firm's earnings are $5,000 and are growing at 10% a year. Approximately how many years

will it take for earnings to triple?

4. You are considering the purchase of a $50,000 machine, which is expected to generate

$11,511.19 annually for 8 years. What is the expected return on the investment?

5. A machine costs $50,000 and is expected to yield a 16% annual rate of return on your

investment, for 8 years. What is the annual income from the machine?

6. Your banker tells you that a $85,000 loan, for 30 years, has an annual payment of $8,273.59.

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-29

7. The current balance on your loan is $12,000. It has an interest of 9%, and an annual payment

of $1,500. How long would it lake you to payoff the entire loan?

(a) What is the total realized return on your investment?

(b) What is the annual return on your investment?

10. If the average monthly return on Widget Inc. is 5%, what is its effective annual rate?

11. You put $100 in a bank today and expect to contribute an additional $100 after 1, 2, and 3

years. What is the FV of your investment after 3 years if the interest rate is 3%?

12. A bank had issued a $10,000 loan a year ago at 10% interest for 5 years with annual payments

of $2,636.97. Suppose the current interest rate on a similar loan is 12%. If the bank were to

sell this loan to another financial institution, how much would it be worth?

13. You want to take a $5,000 vacation to Europe. You can only afford to put $1,160.06 annually

in the bank. If the bank pays you 5% interest annually, how long would it be before you can

take the trip?

14. You plan to take a $5,000 trip to Europe in 2 years. If banks pay 5% interest compounded

annually, and you want to make equal monthly contributions, how much should you put in the

bank annually?

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-30

A. Agree/Disagree-Explain

2. Disagree. You need to discount CFs by the appropriate k reflecting the risk of the CFs. There

is no reason to believe that the State of California has the same default risk as the Sate of NY.

Thus, the discount rates might be different.

3. Disagree. It is the discount rate not the discount factor. A factor is a number you multiply the

CFs by to obtain FV of PV.

4. Disagree. The advantage of an annuity formulation is that you do not need to go through the

cumbersome process of discounting each CF separately.

Y you lose.

Solution 2: inflation_ Y your purchasing power is less Y you lose.

B. Numerical

1. Step 1: It is a PV problem. You are given value of a loan today, and asked to find the

amount of payments.

PV ' CF [PVIFAk,n]

PV of loan 35,000

Y CF ' Payment ' ' ' $4,755.37

PVIFA6%,10 7.3601

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-31

2. Step 1: It is a PV problem. You are given the value of a lump-sum today, and asked to

compare it to another CF. If you calculate the PV of the CFs, you end with PVs

that you need to compare. If you thought about it in terms of FV, then you

would have realized that more information was required than provided by the

question. Thus, it must be a PV problem.

ˆ accept LUMP SUM

3. It is a FV problem. You want to know how long it takes to reach 3 times the current value.

In table you get 2.8531 for 11 years and 3.1384 for 12.

ˆ approximately 11.5 years.

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-32

Y 3 ' (1.1)t

Y log 3 ' t log(1.1)

log(3) 1.098

Yt ' ' ' 11.55years

log(1.1) .0953

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-33

Expected to generate annuity CF = $11,511.19 for 8 years.

What is expected rate of return on investment? i = ?

Solution:

Step 3: Calculate i.

PV ' CF[PVIFAi,n]

PV $50,000

Y PVIFA ' ' ' 4.3436

CF $11,511.19

From Table for PVIFA we get i ' 16%

5.

PV $50,000

CF ' ' ' $11,511.19

PVIFA16%,8 4.3436

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-34

What is the interest rate on the loan? i =?

Solution:

PV ' CF[PVIFAi,n]

PV $85,000

Y PVIFAi,30 ' ' ' 10.2737

CF $8,273.59

From Table for PVIFA we get i ' 9%

What is length of loan? n =?

Solution:

PV ' CF[PVIFAi,n]

PV $12,000

Y PVIFA9,n ' ' ' 8.000

CF $1,500

From Table for PVIFA we get n ' 15 years

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-35

(a) What is the total realized return on your investment?

(b) What is the annual return on your investment?

(a)from Chapter 2

p1 & p0 121 & 100

realized return ' ' ' 21%

p0 100

121

Y FVIF?,2 ' ' 1.21

100

From FVIF table, ?' 10%.

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-36

annual rate 12

(1 % effective annual rate) ' (1 % )

12

' (1 % monthly rate)12

Y effective annual rate ' (1 % monthly rate)12 & 1

11. Remember that FVIFA assumes 0 CFs at time 0 (see Section 4.0). Thus, you need to add the

FV of CF0. Thus,

12. Note 1. (a) Distinguish between market value of loan and book value.

(b) A bank might be interested in obtaining cash immediately, and thus

wants to sell the loan (i.e. the promised CFs) for immediate cash.

Note 2.

(a) PV is not calculated based on PV of ending balance but the Sum of DCF.

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

Time Value of Money 6-37

13.

FV ' CF(FVIFA)

5,000 ' 1,160.06(FVIFA5,?) Y

5,000

FVIFA ' ' 4.3101

1,160.06 .

14.

FV ' CF(FVIFA5%,2) Y

FV $5,000

CF ' ' ' $2,439.

FVIFA5%,2 2.05

© morevalue.com, 1997

Alex Tajirian

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