EPA Memo-Cogen

www.energyportfolioassociates.com
The Spark
(914) 381-6300 F (914) 381-6303 October 23, 2009

EPA Memo-Cogen’s Energy Price Commentary & Technical Research

atural Gas & Electricity

Net, net it was another tepid week for energy prices although we experienced some volatility. Natural Gas is caught between two
powerful forces on the bullish and bearish side. For the bullish case the weather is predicted to be colder in the coming weeks, we are
entering the end of the injection season, the dollar continues to fall and money continues to flow into commodities as a result. On the
bearish side we hit yet another all time high for storage, the economy continues to show signs of weakness and we are entering the
end of the fourth quarter rally season.

As "The Spark" has been saying for several weeks now we expect a major buying opportunity to emerge with a first quarter decline
in Natural Gas and Electricity prices. In our opinion buyers should be patient at this time, but not go to sleep. In the past we have
seen the first quarter declines occur as early as mid-December.

Natural Gas Strip Current Price* Price Target

6 Month 5.65 –.02 9.3 Incomplete
12 Month 5.86 –.02 8.7
24 Month 6.33 –.01 8.6 Incomplete

PJM Electric Strip Current Price* Price Target

6 Month .0534 + .0018 9.6 Incomplete
12 Month .0578 + .0013 8.4 Incomplete
24 Month .0609 + .0007 8.3 Incomplete

Natural Gas 12 Month Strip

*prices are a snapshot at time of composition. Price changes are on a publication over publication change.

This Newsletter is authored by Michael E. Mollin. Michael E. Mollin is the principal of M.E. Mollin & Company LLC a Registered Investment Advisor in
New York State. The information contained herein is believed to be reliable, however, Energy Portfolio Associates ("EPA") and M.E. Mollin & Company
LLC ("MEM") do not warrant it's completeness or accuracy. Quotes are estimates and are not guaranteed by either EPA or MEM. Neither EPA or MEM is
acting as your advisor and the decision to proceed with any transaction rest solely with you. Copyright 2009, M.E. Mollin & Company, LLC