Tcnicas extrapolativas

Yi
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31

870
1492
1032
1594
1559
1325
1884
1705
1320
1790
1769
1578
2356
2356
2073
1728
1833
2259
1976
2476
2458
2685
3091
2534
2640
2205
2230
2546
2406
2106
522.358361

Fex1
ei
1203.453
333.453
1238.4244
-253.5756
1281.4358
249.4358
1331.6088
-262.3912
1388.065
-170.935
1449.926
124.926
1516.3134
-367.6866
1586.3488
-118.6512
1659.1538
339.1538
1733.85
-56.15
1809.559
40.559
1885.4024
307.4024
1960.5018
-395.4982
2033.9788
-322.0212
2104.955
31.955
2172.552
444.552
2235.8914
402.8914
2294.0948
35.0948
2346.2838
370.2838
2391.58
-84.42
2429.105
-28.895
2457.9804
-227.0196
2477.3278
-613.6722
2486.2688
-47.7312
2483.925
-156.075
2469.418
264.418
2441.8694
211.8694
2400.4008
-145.5992
2344.1338
-61.8662
2272.19
166.19
2183.691
1644.90808

269.391461
2722.47392

3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0

10

10

3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500

-1000
Yi

y = -0.1464x3 + 4.8984x2 + 21.301x + 1177.4

R = 0.734

10

15

20

25

30

35

10

15

20

25

30

35

Yi

Fex1

ei

Linear (ei)

Columna1
Media
Error tpico
Mediana
Moda
Desviacin estndar
Varianza de la muestra
Curtosis
Coeficiente de asimetra
Rango
Mnimo
Mximo
Suma
Cuenta

0.33323333
49.1839267
-38.3131
#N/A
269.391461
72571.7593
-0.60169714
-0.15040342
1058.2242
-613.6722
444.552
9.997
30

Yi
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

FN1
870
1492
1032
1594
1559
1325
1884
1705
1320
1790
1769
1578
2356
2356
2073
1728
1833
2259
1976
2476
2458
2685
3091
2534
2640
2205
2230
2546
2406
2106

FN1

2114
572
2156
1524
1091
2443
1526
935
2260
1748
1387
3134
2356
1790
1383
1938
2685
1693
2976
2440
2912
3497
1977
2746
1770
2255
2862
2266

FN2

2114
572
2156
1524
1091
2443
1526
935
2260
1748
1387
3134
2356
1790
1383
1938
2685
1693
2976
2440
2912
3497
1977
2746
1770
2255
2862
2266

870
1492
1032
1594
1559
1325
1884
1705
1320
1790
1769
1578
2356
2356
2073
1728
1833
2259

Media total

Promedios
moviles 3

FPT

FPM3

870
1181
1131.333333
1247
1309.4
1312
1393.714286
1432.625
1420.111111
1457.1
1485.454545
1493.166667
1559.538462
1616.428571
1646.866667
1651.9375
1662.588235
1695.722222
1710.473684
1748.75
1782.52381
1823.545455
1878.652174
1905.958333
1935.32
1945.692308
1956.222222
1977.285714
1992.068966
1995.866667

1131.33333
1372.66667
1395
1492.66667
1589.33333
1638
1636.33333
1605
1626.33333
1712.33333
1901
2096.66667
2261.66667
2052.33333
1878
1940
2022.66667
2237
2303.33333
2539.66667
2744.66667
2770
2755
2459.66667
2358.33333
2327
2394

Promedios
moviles 5
FPM5

Promedios
moviles
ponderados
4
FPMP4

1309.4
1400.4
1478.8
1613.4
1558.6
1604.8
1693.6
1632.4
1762.6
1969.8
2026.4
2018.2
2069.2
2049.8
1973.8
2054.4
2200.4
2370.8
2537.2
2648.8
2681.6
2631
2540
2431
2405.4

0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
1332.6
1457.4
1419.7
1622.3
1668.1
1548.8
1641.4
1679.1
1651.9
1948.6
2141.7
2165
2019.9
1901.8
2006.4
2007.5
2218.3
2347.1
2504.2
2781.1
2723.7
2702.9
2489.9
2334.9
2392.4
2392.7

FPMP4'
0.05
0.15
0.2
0.6
766
1725.1
1537.1
1311.4
2020.4
1644.05
1287.2
1894.05
1717.35
1567.55
2533
2335.85
2084.65
1697.9
1825.7
2295.55
1912.65
2623.85
2447.4
2766.25
3195.4
2444.4
2713.15
2082.6
2217.75
2571

0.6219384
FSE
870
870
1256.84569
1117.00552
1413.6667
1504.05506
1392.69384
1698.25601
1702.45036
1464.58979
1666.9749
1730.42823
1635.62726
2083.65473
2253.03671
2141.06497
1884.164
1852.34314
2105.25866
2024.86774
2305.44422
2400.32452
2577.37513
2896.81816
2671.16761
2651.78328
2373.9116
2284.40745
2447.1019
2421.53905

ePM3

70
391.333333
115.666667
318
153.666667
164
48.3333333
643.666667
455
23.6666667
533.666667
219.333333
381
36
453.333333
221
381.666667
551.333333
210.666667
130
550
229.666667
187.666667
79
288
MAD
MSE
MAPE

ePM5

15.6
483.6
226.2
293.4
231.4
164.2
115.6
723.6
593.4
103.2
298.4
185.2
189.8
73.8
502.2
403.6
484.6
720.2
3.2
8.8
476.6
401
6
25
299.4

273.426667
281.12
106862.689 126535.069
0.12772825 0.13034435

ePMP4

ePMP4'

eFSE

4000
3500
3000
2500

132.4
464.3
82.7
348.1
241.2
127.6
101.1
704.1
407.4
68.7
437
186.9
357.2
30.4
468.5
239.7
337.9
586.8
247.1
83.7
497.9
259.9
211.1
13.6
286.7

400.1
346.9
393.6
700.4
145.95
481.8
316.05
638.65
788.45
460
607.85
251.65
561.1
150.3
180.45
545.35
61.15
643.6
232.25
555.4
239.4
483.15
463.4
188.25
465

179.055062
491.306157
6.74399073
382.450356
325.410207
102.025103
152.428227
720.372741
272.345269
180.036712
413.064967
51.1640014
406.656856
129.258659
451.132265
152.555785
284.675484
513.624868
362.818162
31.1676139
446.783278
143.9116
261.592551
41.1019024
315.539051

276.88
412.008 272.688835
108503.44 206322.724
105375.8
0.13046034 0.20307644 0.13018079

2000
1500
1000
500
0
0

10

10

3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0

3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500

500
0
0

10
Yi

3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0

10
Yi

FPT

10

10

15

20

Yi

FN1

15

20

Yi

FPT

25

30

35

25

30

35

10
Yi

15
FPT

10
FPT

20

25

FPM3

15
FPM3

30

35

30

35

FPM5

20

25
FPM5

ePMP4

Y tY tY tY tY tY tY tY tY tY tY tY tY tY tY tY t-

ALFA=
REZAGO
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

0.3
PONDERACION
0.3
0.21
0.147
0.1029
0.07203
0.050421
0.0352947
0.02470629
0.0172944
0.01210608
0.00847426
0.00593198
0.00415239
0.00290667
0.00203467
0.00142427
0.00099699
0.00069789
0.00048852
0.00034197
0.00023938

0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
1 2 3 4 5 6

PONDERACION

PONDERACION

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21