Conflict & Terror in Pakistan Generalization(s): Over the course of the last sixty years, India and Pakistan

n have fought three large wars that changed and led to disputes over political boundaries, resulted in the forced migration of millions of people, and are still a source of tension in South Asia today. Conflict and terrorism characterize contemporary events occurring in Pakistan, resulting in a destabilization of not only the civilian government, but also the NATO-supported government in Afghanistan. Partition (the division of) After over 300 years of British presence and/or rule in India, India gained full independence in 1947. This was followed by the partition of India into a Hindu majority nation (India) and a new Muslim majority nation Pakistan. The partition caused the massive migration of over twelve million Hindus and Muslims across the newly drawn borders and generated extensive violence with an estimated million casualties. o Pakistan was geographically separated in two: West Pakistan in what is today modernday Pakistan and East Pakistan in what is now Bangladesh.

Indo-Pakistani Wars 1947 Indian and Pakistani forces battled over Kashmir, a state in Northern India claimed by both nations. The United Nations eventually implemented a peace agreement that divided Kashmir into Indian and Pakistani zones of control.

Disputed Region of Northern India, including Kashmir (Indian Territory = Blue, Pakistani Territory = Green) 1965 Second Indo-Pakistani War, again over Kashmir. This war included the largest tank battle since WWII. 1971 After an ongoing independence movement in East Pakistan (based on cultural and ethnic differences that existed despite the shared religious beliefs of East and West Pakistanis), East Pakistan demanded independence: o The Pakistani army (mostly made up of West Pakistanis) was utilized to break the rebellion in East Pakistan, but committed a number of atrocities, most significantly against Hindus living in East Pakistan. o The violence in East Pakistan resulted in the displacement and migration of over ten million people who fled across the border to India. It is estimated that between two and three million Bengalis were killed by Pakistani forces during the crisis. o India decided that ending the refugee crisis would most quickly be achieved by making war against Pakistan; fearing such intervention, Pakistan struck first with preemptive strikes on Indian military targets. o In the subsequent war, Indian forces defeated the Pakistani forces in East Pakistan resulting in the independence of East Pakistan now called Bangladesh. Consequences of Conflict The animosity between the countries of India and Pakistan and the dispute over who controls Kashmir has driven each country to develop and test nuclear weapons. This fact raises the possibility of both sides using nuclear weapons to defeat the other, making the dispute even more dangerous. o India first successfully tested nuclear weapons in the 1970s. o Pakistan did so in 1998. The billions of dollars that have been spent on military preparedness, multiple wars, and the development of nuclear weapons could have been spent on the many social and economic problems faced by both countries.

The rise of the Taliban Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan In 1979, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in support of a pro-Soviet regime that had seized power. The war lasted until 1989, when the last Soviet troops were withdrawn in defeat. Over the course of the war, the Soviet military was unable to defeat fighters referred to as the Mujahideen struggler or freedom fighter who were devout Muslims resisting the foreign influence and invasion of the Soviets in Afghanistan. Many of the fighters were not Afghani, but were Muslim men from nations with large, fundamentalist Muslim populations (for example, Saudi Arabia). The United States did not directly oppose the Soviet invasion with American military force, but instead channeled large amounts of money, training, and weapons to the Mujahideen. As a result of its long, barren, and mountainous border with Afghanistan, Pakistan became a vital gateway for foreign fighters, foreign assistance, and weapons flowing into Afghanistan during the war. With the defeat of the Soviet Union, Afghanistan was further torn by civil war in which radical Islamists (The Taliban) battled more moderate Muslims for control of the country. The Taliban captured the capital, Kabul, and controlled the central and southern parts of the country by 1996.

Taliban Control in 1996

Terror September 11th, 2001 On this date, the United States was attacked by terrorists trained and supported by Al-Qaeda, an Islamist terrorist organization that had been given safe haven by the Afghani Taliban to conduct their operations and training in Afghanistan. o Four airliners were hijacked and flown into predetermined targets, including both World Trade Center towers in NYC and the Pentagon in Northern Virginia. The fourth plane was crashed into a field in western Pennsylvania following a passenger uprising. o In the years leading up to the 9/11 attacks, Al-Qaeda claimed responsibility for other attacks on American targets, including the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center, the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in Tanzania and Kenya, the suicide attack on the U.S.S. Cole in 2000. As a result of the September 11th attacks, the United States invaded Afghanistan, drove the Taliban from power, and pursued and attempted to destroy Al-Qaeda. The Taliban withdrew from Afghani cities and dispersed, many venturing across the border into Pakistans North West Frontier Provence and the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA) where they continued their operations. o While Al-Qaeda is no longer operational in Afghanistan, the Taliban continue to battle the Afghani government and the U.S. led NATO forces deployed in the country. o Meanwhile, Al-Qaeda maintains a presence in north-west Pakistan, and has shifted its base of operations to failed and/or potentially failing states like Somalia and Yemen.

North-West Frontier Province and FATA

Pakistan & Terrorism Since 2001, Pakistan has been continuously destabilized by ethnic, religious, and tribal unrest, exacerbated by the presence of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in the border regions. o In 2008, 2,155 civilians were killed in terrorist violence. There were an estimated 2307 casualties in 2009. In comparison, there were ~1,600 civilian deaths from 2003 2006. o In 2009, there were 80 suicide attacks in Pakistan (there were two in 2002). A number of factors have led several observers to describe Pakistan as the worlds most dangerous country: Growing fundamentalism: o Afghan Taliban-inspired fundamentalism is spreading throughout the North-West Frontier Provence and the FATA. Additionally, a new Punjabi Taliban has emerged in Punjab, a province in northern Pakistan that contains half of the countrys population. o Many members of this group fought against the Soviets in Afghanistan and were trained and used by the Pakistani military in operations against India. In the past, the Pakistan government, mainly the army, allowed these groups to exist in exchange for an agreement that these groups not engage in any terrorist attacks with targets in Pakistan. o However, more and more independent radical Islamic groups have begun to spring-up that are not part of the agreement with the military and government. These groups are more radical and bold and have begun to commit terrorist bombings within Pakistan. o Other extremist groups operate out of Punjab, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, a group which carried out a stunning assault on numerous targets in Mumbai, India in 2008. o Afghani Taliban and Pakistani (Punjabi) Taliban appear to be working in closer cooperation and even supporting each others operations. Ethnic conflict: o Like so many former colonial possessions of European powers, Pakistans borders were haphazardly drawn by the British and resulted in Punjabis and Pashtuns being encompassed within the same political boundaries. o Much of the Pakistani army is composed of Punjabis, the majority ethnic group in Punjab in eastern Pakistan and northwestern India. The Taliban, on the other hand, is comprised entirely of Pashtuns, a group in Afghanistan and the North-West Frontier Province and Balochistan provinces of western Pakistan. o Pakistans military fears an ethnic civil war resulting in a separate Pashtun state and this fear may be one reason it has been reluctant to fight the Taliban, instead opting for peace deals. Geographic complications: o Much of the violence in Pakistans western regions stems from the sheer isolation of the mountainous and arid landscape and the fierce independence of its tribal population. Pakistan has historically offered a tremendous amount of autonomy to these groups, who resist all efforts to impose Pakistani control in the region.

 Threat of nuclear proliferation: o The security of Pakistans nuclear weapons and weapons generating materials has become an increased concern of observers who fear such materials could be sold to or stolen by extremists in the event of greater unrest in the country. Pakistani military o Pakistans military has a long and unfortunate history with militant groups. Along with the U.S., it supported the Mujahideen in Afghanistan and the Taliban in the 1990s. Even following 9/11, it secretly supported the Taliban and also sponsored antiIndian terrorism. Pakistan has done little to apprehend members of the Afghani Taliban or Al-Qaeda that are most certainly in the tribal areas along the Afghani border. When it has taken action against militants in the tribal regions, its success has been extremely mixed. o Despite a return to democratic rule, Pakistans military is still extremely powerful politically. There is some question about what the militarys response would be if the civilian led government decided to take more determined action against militant and terrorist groups. United States o Increasing demands are being made by the U.S. government on Pakistan to do more to stop the growing tide of violence and terrorism that destabilize Pakistan and Afghanistan. o In 2009, the United States carried out at least 43 drone strikes on terrorist targets in Pakistan. These targeted assassinations sometimes kill civilians and questionably infringe on Pakistani sovereignty, but the United States claims they are necessary as long as Pakistan fails to secure its own territory. Osama bin Laden o Mastermind of the 9/11 attacks, bin Laden was killed by U.S. Navy special forces in May 2011. o The fact that bin Laden was hiding in a Pakistani city led to increased suspicions that the Pakistani military and security services may have known about his whereabouts.