1.

normal to above-normal temperature

2. near-normal rainfall
Seasonal Forecast for Winter 2013/14
(December 2013 to February 2014)
Hong Kong is expecting:
Note:
1. Climate prediction centres around the world generate seasonal forecasts, employing a variety of methods
including dynamical models, statistical methods, expert judgment and combinations of them. Predictions from
different centres do not always agree and large discrepancies can occur at times. The Observatory adopts an
ensemble approach to formulate its seasonal forecast for Hong Kong, taking into consideration available products
from major climate prediction centres and the Global-Regional Climate Model (G-RCM) operated in house. Thus,
the resulting forecast issued by the Observatory may be different from the forecast given by G-RCM.
2. The Observatory gratefully acknowledges the Tokyo Climate Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the
National Centers for Environmental Prediction of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA for
providing dynamical prediction model forecast and hindcast data to support the formulation of seasonal forecast for
Hong Kong.
3. Forecast for spring 2014 (March to May 2014) will be available around 1st March 2014.
Seasonal forecast charts provided by G-RCM and major climate centres:
G-RCM (rainfall , temperature)
APEC Climate Center
Beijing Climate Center
Climate Prediction Center (USA)
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (USA)
Tokyo Climate Center
UK Met Office
Related links:
| Annual outlook | El Nio and La Nia | Climate change |
Recent seasonal forecasts and observations
Wednesday, 12 February, 2014