2436

VN =

12000

VR =
a

12300
102.5%

VENCE=
R=
VENDE =
J=
fc =
r=
i=
n=

n = 20

0
15,089.74

15,089.74

1/1/2020
5/1/2013
69.42% SEM
3
5/1/2013
54.84% CAP CUATRIMESTRAL
3
23.14%
18.28%
20 CUATRIMESTRES

15,089.74

5/1/2013
i
2,758.40
0.00
2,758.40

P=

12300

15,089.74
15,089.74

428.23

1-May-13

periodo
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

VL
15,089.74
15,071.35
15,049.59
15,023.85
14,993.41
14,957.41
14,914.83
14,864.46
14,804.88
14,734.41
14,651.06
14,552.47
14,435.87
14,297.94
14,134.80
13,941.85
13,713.62
13,443.67
13,124.37
12,746.70
12,300.00
TOTALES =

das
120
0
120

r
2776.8
0
2777
-20
1.183
+

14,661.51 =
18.280%
23.1%
r
i
2776.80
2758.40
2776.8
2755.04
2776.8
2751.06
2776.8
2746.36
2776.8
2740.80
2776.8
2734.21
2776.8
2726.43
2776.8
2717.22
2776.8
2706.33
2776.8
2693.45
2776.8
2678.21
2776.8
2660.19
2776.8
2638.88
2776.8
2613.66
2776.8
2583.84
2776.8
2548.57
2776.8
2506.85
2776.8
2457.50
2776.8
2399.13
2776.8
2330.10
52,746.26

55536.00

20

1/1/2020

-20
1

1.183

12000
0.231
2776.8
0.1828
15,089.74
1-May-13
5.280002276
r
2776.80
2776.8
2776.8
2776.8
2776.8
2776.8
2776.8
2776.8
2776.8
2776.8
2776.8
2776.8
2776.8
2776.8
2776.8
2776.8
2776.8
2776.8
2776.8
2776.8

( i - r)
-18.40
-21.76
-25.74
-30.44
-36.00
-42.59
-50.37
-59.58
-70.47
-83.35
-98.59
-116.61
-137.92
-163.14
-192.96
-228.23
-269.95
-319.30
-377.67
-446.70

55536.00

-2789.74

# BONOS

PRECIO

200

VN =

2000
400000

VR =
A

400000
100.0%

VENCE=
R=
COMPRA =
J=
fc =
r=
i=
n=

n = 14

50
395,410.48

374,461.44

12/15/2016
6/15/2013
36.80% MJSD
4
8/4/2013
40.28% CAP trimstral
4
9.20%
10.07%
14 TRIMESTRES

374,966.04
374,966.04

P=
104,398.55

4-Aug-13

periodo
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
15

8/4/2013
i
37,759.08
20977.27
16,781.81

das
90
50
40

400000
+

VL
374,966.04
375,392.29
376,394.30
377,497.20
378,711.17
380,047.39
381,518.16
383,137.04
384,918.94
386,880.28
389,039.12
391,415.36
394,030.88
396,909.79
400,078.61
400,000.00
TOTALES =

1.101
270,062.90
10.070%
i
16781.81
37802.00
37902.91
38013.97
38136.22
38270.77
38418.88
38581.90
38761.34
38958.84
39176.24
39415.53
39678.91
39968.82
-78.61
REDONDEO
519,789.52

INVERSION DE LA EMPRESA=
VENTA DE LA MITAD DE BONOS=

1279

14

n = 14

12/15/2016
r
36800
20444
16356
-14
+

-14
1

=
9.2%

1.101

400000
0.092
36800
0.1007
374,461.44
15-Jun-13
7.338665627

r
16355.56
36800
36800
36800
36800
36800
36800
36800
36800
36800
36800
36800
36800
36800
0

( i - r)
426.26
1002.00
1102.91
1213.97
1336.22
1470.77
1618.88
1781.90
1961.34
2158.84
2376.24
2615.53
2878.91
3168.82
-78.61

494755.56

25033.96

374,966
194519.6

PRECIO DEL
BONO
DESCONTADO

374,966.04

D1= D0 x (1 + g)^1

D0=

P0 = D0 x (1 + g)^1 (r g)

G=

12%

P0 = 6 x (1.12)^1 (0,18 0,12)

R=

18%

P0 =

112.00
P6= 112 x (1,12)^6

P6 =

221.07

AUMENTO DE 50%

1.5

D1=
D2=
D3=
D4=

6.00
9.00
13.50
20.25

1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50

9.00
13.50
20.25
30.38

P4 = 30.38 x (1.12) (0,18 0,12)

567.00
P4=
P0=

9.00
1.180

13.50
1.392

20.25
1.643

30.38
1.939

P0=

7.63

9.70

12.32

15.67

P0=

337.77

FACTOR

567.00
1.939
292.45

Datos:
P0 = Precio actual de la accin
Pn = P0 x (1 + g)
D0 = Dividendo

6.00
n

Dn = D0 x (1 + g)
r = Tasa de retorno requerida =
18%
g1a4 = Tasa de crecimiento de dividendos por los 4 prximos aos =
g = Tasa constante de crecimiento de dividendos =
12.00%

50.00%

DESARROLLO
Paso 1:
Si se espera que el dividendo crezca 22.40% anual, el precio actual de la accin ser:
P0 = D1/(r g), pero
D1 = D0 x (1 + g)1
P0 = D0 x (1 + g)1 (r g)
P0 =
6.00 x 1.1200
P0 =

112.00

Paso 2:
Dentro de seis aos la accin valdr:
P6 = P0(1+g)6
P6 = 112.00 x
P6 = 221.07

1.1200

0.0600

Paso 3:
Valor de los dividendos en los prximos 4 aos:
n
Dn = D0 x (1 + g1a4)
D1 =
D2 =
D3 =
D4 =

x
9.00 x
13.50 x
20.25 x

1.500 = 9.00
1.500 = 13.50

6.00

1.500 = 20.25
1.500 = 30.38

Paso 4:
Despus de 4 aos, la tasa de crecimiento se estabiliza a 12%
por tanto el precio en ese momento es de:
P4 = D4 x (1 + g) (r - g)
P0 =
30.38 x 1.1200 0.0600
P4 = 567.00
Paso 5:
Precio de Venta actual de la accin considerando una tasa de retorno de la inversin ( r ) de 18%:
P0= [D1 (1+r)1]+[D2 (1+r)2]+[D3 (1+r)3]+[D4 (1+r)4]+ [P4 (1+r)4]
1

P0 =

9.00 1.180

P0 = 337.77

13.50

1.180

+ 20.25

1.180

30.38 1.180

567.00

1.180