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SARIMA Modeling
TheSARIMAmodelisanextensionoftheARIMAmodel,typicallyusedincaseswherewesuspecta
seasonalpatterninourdata.TheNumXLSARIMAModelWizardautomatesthemodelconstruction
steps:guessinginitialparameters,parametersvalidation,goodnessoffittestingandresidualsdiagnosis.
Tousethisfunctionality,selectanemptycellwhereyouwishtheoutputmodeltabledisplayedand
locatethecorrespondingicononthetoolbar(orthemenuitem):
TheSARIMAModelWizardisnowdisplayed.Theoutputrangeissettothecurrentactivecellinyour
worksheet.Now,referencethedatasampleonyourworksheetandenterthedifferentmodelorders.
UserGuideSARIMAModel 2 SpiderFinancialCorp,2014
IntheOptionssectionofthewizard,youmayinstructthewizardtoinitializetheparametersvalues
withaquickguessorwithcalibratedoptimalvalues.
Finally,intheOutputsection,youmaydecidewhetherthewizardshouldgeneratethegoodnessoffit
ortheresidualsdiagnosistables.Bydefault,bothoptionsarechecked.Now,clickOK.
Uponcompletion,theSARIMAModelWizarddisplaystheselectedmodel'sparametersanddifferent
statisticaltestsand/orcalculationsinthedesignatedlocationofyourworksheet.
Notes:
1. TheARIMAWizardaddscomments(redarrowheads)tothelabelcellstodescribethem.