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THM NH V QUN L D N U T
ti:
STT
1
H V TN
Ng Vn Anh
MSSV
K114020238
NH GI
Cc thnh vin u t im ti
a ca bng tiu ch nh gi
K114020258
Nguyn Th Anh Li
K114020287
ng Nguyt Thanh
K114020323
K114020341
K114020351
ca nhm ra.
Do , tt c u t mc im
ti a l 100/100 im.
MC LC
M t d n .................................................................................................................. 1
Cc bn lin quan ................................................................................................. 1
Cn c lp d n ................................................................................................... 1
1.2
Sc cu th trng ........................................................................................................ 4
2.2
2.3
2.4
Sn phm...................................................................................................................... 7
Bnh bo tm chy Hu........................................................................................ 7
Bnh bo Bnh nh ............................................................................................. 8
Bnh bo BaBeVi hi sn ..................................................................................... 8
3.2
3.3
4.2
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
Chi ph vn................................................................................................................. 15
5.10
5.11
6.2
M t d n
- Chnh sch trch np thu r rng, c th th hin qua bng phn tch ti chnh.
1.2
- Mc tiu ngn hn: Vi ca hng m thc thc n nhanh, ca hng BaBeVi s nhanh
chng hon vn v xy dng thng hiu ngay trong nm u tin thc hin d n. V
trong 2 nm tip theo ca hng chng ti s tng thm doanh s, tm kim li nhun v
khch hng tim nng; tng kh nng cnh tranh, v nng cao gi tr thng hiu Bnh
bo BaBeVi trn th trng.
- Mc tiu di hn: D n s thit lp chui ca hng Bnh bo BaBeVi chuyn
cung cp cc loi bnh bo, bnh bt lc.
Bi cnh v m
2.1
2015
2016
2017
Gi
18.000
20.000
22.000
Nm u (nm 1), chng ti nh gi thp hn i th cnh tranh d thm nhp
th trng, cc nm sau nh gi ngang i th cnh tranh.
- S lng hng bn d kin:
Bng 2.1 S lng hng bn d kin nm 2015 2017
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
K I
S lng bn
K II
K I
K II
K I
K II
15
15
15
15
15
15
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Tng s da bn ra
(da/ngy)
720
720
720
720
720
720
25%
34%
56%
56%
60%
60%
180
245
403.2
403.2
432
432
S da/bn/1 ln
S gi hot
(gi/ngy)
ng
S lng bn bnh
32,400 44,064 72,576 72,576 77,760 77,760
qun (da/k)
Thi k u, do gp phi cc yu t tc ng nh: cnh tranh, hnh vi tiu dng ca
khch hng, hnh nh ca hng cha c qung b rng ri.... nn s lng hng ha
c tnh bn ra cha nhiu, nhng s c ci thin v tng ln trong nhng k tip.
2.3
Phn tch a im
Chng ti da trn cc nguyn tc chung la chn a im: li th v mt
nghip, trng anh ng, cng nh cc trng i hc, trng trung hc, tiu hc, Do
, ni y tp trung ng cc i tng nh hc sinh, sinh vin, nhn vin vn phng
l khch hng mc tiu ca d n. Mc d khu vc ny cng tp trung nhiu qun x
nhng vn cha c mt ca hng no c th p ng y cc tiu ch: khng gian
thoi mi, gn gi vi thin nhin; cung cp thc n nhanh gn vi mc gi phi chng;
thc phm m bo tnh an ton, v sinh, iu ny to cho d n mt li th cnh
tranh nu t ca hng trong khu vc ny.
-
hay ting n nh trung tm thnh ph. Xung quanh c cy xanh bao ph m bo cho
khch hng c th thng thc bu khng kh trong lnh, mt m sau ngy di hot
ng.
-
cng to iu kin tin hnh hot ng kinh doanh cho c th kinh doanh trong phm
vi cho php.
Vi a im ny, nhm tn dng c khng gian thong mt, khu vc u xe
rng rt ph hp. Hn na, gi c cho vic thu mt bng 60 triu ng/thng v iu
khon thu mt bng nm trong phm vi d n c th gii quyt c. Do , y l a
im ph hp nht trin khai d n.
2.4
Sn phm
Bnh bo Hu, bnh bo Bnh nh, t lu tr thnh mt nt vn ho m
u bt trong t ln.
+
Sau khi chn th ly chn ra ngui ri dng mung c fe, xoay bnh ra khi
Chin vng b heo sau ct nh chng ra. Phn du chin b heo c th dng li
ti ra l c.
Bnh bo Bnh nh
- Nguyn liu gm: 1/2 kg go trng, 1 lt ri nc lc, 1 t mui, 1/2 mung cfe
bt nm Knoor, L h thi nh, lc rang gi nh, Chn snh nh hp, 1 t nc un
si ngui + ng ct + Nc mm ngon.
- Cch ch bin:
+
Ngm go trng vo nc m khong 6-8 gi, sau xay bt trc khi bnh.
khi n.
Bnh bo BaBeVi hi sn
-
Nguyn liu gm: bt go, tm kh, tm ti (chn loi tm t), mc ti, rau
3.3
S ln hp bnh/ni/ ngy
S chn/khay
2015
K I
K II
18
18
2016
K I
18
K II
18
2017
K I K II
18
18
24
24
24
24
24
24
S khay/ni
S ni
2,592
2,592
3,888
3,888
S chn/da
S da/ngy
324
324
486
486
486
486
0.6
0.80
0.85
0.85
0.90
0.90
194
259
413
413
437
437
34,992
46,656
74,358
74,358 78,732
78,732
S bnh/ngy
3,888 3,888
Nhn lc qun l
B phn
S lng
Qun l
B phn
Marketing
B phn sn 1 u bp,
xut
2 ph bp
Nhim v
- S chu trch nhim theo di, qun l ton b hot
ng ca ca hng.
- Lp k hoch, nh hng, xy dng chin lc
Lm vic theo ca.
pht trin ca ca hng.
14h30-21h30
- Qun l, iu phi, gii quyt cng vic hng ngy,
Thu tin, qun l h thng thu tin t ng, Qun l
thu chi hng ngy, Kt ton thu chi hng
tun/thng/nm.
- Nm bt th trng tiu th, t , tin hnh lp k
hoch Marketing hiu qu cho nhng sn phm ca
Lm vic theo nhim ca hng, m bo s to bo, mi l trong chin
v c giao
lc marketing. Gii thiu sn phm n khch
hng tim nng.
- Chu trch nhim marketing online.
- S qun l dy chuyn lm bnh ca ca hng:
u bp: 13h - 20h.
m bo ng qui trnh, v v sinh an ton thc
Ph bp: lm theo ca
phm. Lun m bo cht lng tt nht ca sn
(mi ca 1 ngi):
phm lm ra.
7h - 15h, 15h - 21h
- ph bp: chun b nguyn ph liu, ....
Nhn vin
phc v bn
3 ngi
15h - 21h
- Phc v ti qun.
- Giao hng.
Bo v
15h - 21h
i tng
- u bp: s mi mt th
chuyn lm bnh lm trng
b phn sn xut.
- Ph bp: Nhng ngi c
kinh nghim lm bnh s
c tuyn vo v tr ph bp.
Sinh vin, nhng ngi ra
trng cha c vic lm,
nhng ngi c nhu cu lm
thm.
Nam
10
Yu cu tuyn dng
- L ngi nhit tnh, ham hc hi, c trch nhim vi cng vic c giao.
- Thi lm vic chuyn nghip, chp hnh tt ni quy ca ca hng (nghim tc,
ng gi, nhanh nhn, lch s, ha nh).
- Lun phc v khch hng theo phng chm Khch hng l thng .
- Ch ng tm hiu, pht hin ra nhng thiu xt, im cha hp l ca d n, ca
ca hng kp thi iu chnh.
Cch thc o to v qun l
- Tp hun ph bin ni quy trc khi vo lm vic, thng xuyn hp rt kinh
nghim, c bit l trong x l cc tnh hung bt ng.
-
S lng
Lng/ngi
Thnh tin
Qun l
4,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
2,000,000
+ u bp
3,500,000
3,500,000
+ Ph bp
2,500,000
2,500,000
2,200,000
6,600,000
Bo v
1,800,000
1,800,000
Tng
B phn sn xut
20,400,000
5.1
5.2
Bng khu hao: cc my mc thit b, cng c dng c khu hao trong 5 nm.
S dng phng php khu hao ng thng. (Ph lc 2)
5.3
5.4
Gi
bo
bnh
Doanh thu
hng bn
Doanh thu
t bnh bo
gim gi
Tng
doanh thu
1
2015
K I
K II
18
2
2016
K I
18
3
2017
K II
20
20
K I
K II
22
22
23,328
17,820
17,820
10,692
10,692
12
5.6
5.7
Din gii:
- Gi vn: tng gi vn tng ln khi nng sut hng nm tng ln. ng th cng
b nh hng bi lm pht.
- Chi ph gin tip: tng qua cc nm v:
- Lng nhn cng: Do tnh cht c th v s thm dng sc lao ng ca vic
lm bnh, cng vic ca nhn vin nhiu hn khi nng lc sn xut tng nn qua cc
nm th mc lng s c gia tng d trn s tha thun.
- Chi ph bo tr, cc chi ph khc: tng cng vi tc tng nng sut.
- Chi ph marketing: Trong k 1, nm u khi gia nhp th trng, chin dch
marketing s c tin hnh nhm thu ht s quan tm ca khch hng nn s chi nhiu
hn cc k cn li.
- Chi ph thu: i vi h kinh doanh c th th c 3 loi thu phi np: thu mn
bi, VAT, thu nhp.
Ngn lu t do: (Ph lc 7)
5.8
Chi ph vn
+ Chi ph vn ch s hu: re = 12%/nm.
+ Chi ph vn vay: rd = 14%/nm.
+ Thu thu nhp: 12%/nm.
+ Cng thc: WACC = re * E/(E+D) + rd*(1-T)* D/(E+D)
Trong :
+ re: t sut thu nhp mong mun ca ch s hu.
+ rd: li sut mong mun ca ch n.
+ E: gi th trng c phn ca cng ty.
+ D: gi th trng n ca cng ty.
+ T: thu thu nhp doanh nghip.
Do vy: Chi ph vn bnh qun trng s : WACC = r = 3.54 %/k.
5.10
+ Tpp = 0.798
Nhn xt cc tiu ch la chn d n:
+ Ta c: NPV d n v ch s hu u ln hn 0 => D n kh thi v mt ti chnh.
+ IRR > WACC, IRR > Re => Sut sinh li ni ti ca d n ln hn sut sinh li
k vng ca d n v ca ch s hu.
+ DSCR > 1 => D n to ra dng tin thc hin ngha v tr n.
+ B/C thng > 1 => Dng tin vo ca d n b p chi ph b ra.
+ Thi gian hon vn nhanh, trc vng i ca d n.
15
5.11
400,000,000
300,000,000
200,000,000
100,000,000
0
Nm 0
-100,000,000
K 1
nm 1
K 2
nm 1
K 1
nm 2
K 2
nm 2
K 1
nm 3
K 2
nm 3
Nm 4
-200,000,000
16
-106,344,690
-112,600,260
-118,855,830
-125,111,400
-131,366,970
-137,622,540
-143,878,110
1,986,542,460
2,005,309,170
1,999,053,600
1,992,798,030
1,986,542,460
1,980,286,890
1,974,031,320
1,967,775,750
- Bng 6.2 Phn tch nhy 1 chiu cho IRR theo chi u t nm 0.
Chi u t nm 0
IRR
1.600
-106,344,690
-112,600,260
-118,855,830
-125,111,400
-131,366,970
-137,622,540
-143,878,110
1.819
1.738
1.666
1.600
1.540
1.485
1.435
6.1
Chi u t nm 0
-118,855,830 -125,111,400 -131,366,970
1,986,542,460
-106,344,690
-112,600,260
-137,622,540
-143,878,110
2%
2,142,652,746
2,136,397,176 2,130,141,606
3%
2,052,047,500
2,045,791,930 2,039,536,360
4%
2,005,309,170
1,999,053,600 1,992,798,030
5%
1,885,292,571
1,879,037,001 1,872,781,431
6%
1,808,519,838
1,802,264,268 1,796,008,698
7%
1,735,773,785
1,729,518,215 1,723,262,645
8%
1,666,798,270
1,660,542,700 1,654,287,130
17
Nhn xt:
- Phn tch nhy 1 chiu: ta thy khi tng chi u t th NPV, IRR u gim, v ngc
li. Tc chi u t nghch bin vi NPV, IRR. Tuy nhin, NPV vn ln hn 0 => d n kh thi.
- Phn tch nhay 2 chiu: khi chi u t hoc sut chit tnh thay i th xc sut
NPV ln hn 0 l 1. => D n kh thi.
6.2
Chi u t
WACC
TH 01
Tt
100,089,120
2%
TH 02
Trung bnh
125,111,400
4%
TH 03
Xu
150,133,680
6%
Bng 6.5 Bng phn tch kch bng thay i ngn lu vo theo Scenario Summary.
Current
Kch bn trung
Values:
kch bn tt
bnh
Kch bn xu
Changing Cells:
$B$4
125,111,400
100,089,120
125,111,400
150,133,680
$B$5
0.035386097
0.02
0.035386097
0.06
1,986,542,460 2,123,886,036
1,986,542,460
1,789,753,128
Result Cells:
$B$7
Nhn xt
Gi nh cc yu t khc khng i, xt cc kch bn ca chi u t ban u v s bin
ng ca chi ph s dng vn.
- Nu d n xy ra theo kch bn tt, WACC gim xung cn 2% v chi ph u t ban
u l 100,089,120 VND thp hn d tnh ban u l 125,111,400 VND th NPV tng.
- Nu d n xy ra theo kch bn xu, WACC tng ln mc 6% v chi u t ban u
tng ln 150,133,680 VND th NPV ca d n gim.
18
D n rt c tim nng pht trin trong tng lai. Ngoi vic c a im thun
li th d n cn c th trng nguyn vt liu v tiu th tng i ln v n nh. Do
m bo c s n nh ca qu trnh hot ng trong sut vng i d n. Thng
qua chnh sch gi, qun l, marketing... mt cch ti u, d n cng c tnh cnh tranh
trn th trng.
Hn na, qua qu trnh phn tch, c th nhn thy kt qu kinh doanh kh thi trong
tng lai gn. C th:
- Hiu qu ti chnh:
+ NPV d n = 1,986,542,460 VND.
+ NPV ch s hu = 1,986,542,460 VND.
+ IRR = 1.60
+ Tpp = 0.798
D n c NPV > 0, IRR ln hn WACC v Re rt nhiu. Thi gian hon vn t hn
1 nm, nh hn vng i ca d n, t sut sinh li ca d n rt cao. T nhng phn
tch trn, d n c nh gi l c tnh kh thi v mt ti chnh.
Kt qu phn tch nhy cho thy: NPV t b nh hng tiu cc khi cc yu t:
chi u t nm 0 v t sut chit khu thay i.
Kt qu ca phn tch kch bn cho thy: vi 3 kch bn khc nhau th chi u t
nm 0 v s bin ng ca chi ph s dng vn khng phi l yu t tc ng xu n NPV.
Tm li: Qua vic phn tch tnh kh thi ca d n, li ch kinh t v x hi m d n
mang li. Chng ti tin rng d n s thnh cng khi thc hin.
19
PH LC 1. BNG THNG S
0
2014
K I
BNG THNG S
Thng tin u t (VND)
Tng chi ph u t my mc thit b,
cng c , dng c
Chi ph u t, sa cha, bi tr qun
Thi gian khu hao my mc thit b
Vng i kinh t ca my mc thit
b
Thng tin sn xut
c tnh cng sut
S lng da/ k
c tnh s lng bn ra
S lng bn bnh qun(da)/k
T l cn i tin mt (CB)/Doanh s
bn gp k k tip
T l khon phi tr (AP)/Tng chi
ph trc tip
Chi ph trc tip/da
CP lm bnh bo
Go
Tm (lm bnh bo+ch bng)
bt nng
Mc
1
2015
K II
34,785,000
60,000,000
5
10
K I
2
2016
K II
K I
3
2017
K II
1,300,000
nm
nm
34,992
46,656
74,358
74,358
78,732
78,732
32,400
44,064
72,576
72,576
77,760
77,760
0.05
30%
Gi
(VND)
2000
1000
500
1500
20
du
500
Rau
250
ng
150
Nc mm
1000
Mui
30
Bt ngt
150
t, ti, hnh
1,000
Cc loi NVL khc
in, gas, nc/ chi ph NVL sn
xut bnh bo
12%
Chi ph tng cng
Lao ng (tng cng)
12,600,000 /thng
Tc tng lng, khng k lm
pht
5% /nm
Chi ph gin tip
Lao ng (tng cng)
7,800,000 /thng
Tc tng lng, khng k lm pht
5% /nm
Tin thu t
10,000,000 /nm
Bo tr/Tng chi ph trc tip
0.8%
Chi ph khc/Tng chi ph trc tip
0.3%
Chi ph bn hng (tip th qung co)
Thng tin ti tr
Vay n VND
Li sut danh ngha
Li sut thc
li sut danh ngha
K hn
Chi ph vn ch s hu
WACC
70,000,000
14%
8.6%
7.0%
1.5
12%
3.54%
/nm
/nm
k
nm
nm
k
21
3 nm
5%
50%
12%
2%
5%
1,000,000
1
12%
5%
1,000,000
1.05
1.05
5%
12%
5%
1,000,000
1.1025
1.1025
5%
12%
5%
1,000,000
1.157625 1.157625
22
Nm
1
2015
K I
Nm
K II
K I
1,300,000
34,785,000
60,000,000
94,785,000
3
2017
K II
K I
K II
1,300,000
2014
2015
2016
2017
K I
2
2016
K II
K I
K II
K I
K II
3,478,500
3,478,500
3,608,500
3,478,500
3,478,500
3,478,500
Ti sn c nh rng u k
94,785,000
91,306,500
87,828,000
85,519,500
82,041,000
78,562,500
Khu hao
3,478,500
3,478,500
3,608,500
3,478,500
3,478,500
3,478,500
3,478,500
6,957,000
10,565,500
14,044,000
17,522,500
21,001,000
u t mi
94,785,000
1,300,000
Ti sn c nh rng cui k
94,785,000
91,306,500
87,828,000
85,519,500
82,041,000
78,562,500
75,084,000
23
0
2014
1
2015
2
2016
K I
70,000,000
K II
48,226,383
K I
24,928,614
70,000,000
Tr li vay
4,900,000
3,375,847
1,745,003
Tr n gc
21,773,616.598
23,297,769.760
24,928,613.643
Tr li vay v n gc
26,673,617
26,673,617
26,673,617
D n cui k
70,000,000
48,226,383
24,928,614
CF n hp nht
70,000,000
-26,673,617
-26,673,617
-26,673,617
D n u k
Gii ngn n
K II
3
2017
K I
K II
24
0
2014
1
2015
K I
2
2016
K II
K I
3
2017
K II
K I
182,284,263
91,142,132
45,571,066
136,713,197
45,571,066
22,785,533
13,671,320
91,142,132
2,734,264
13,671,320
91,142,132
55,560,243
83,349,000
875,337,666
K II
182,284,263
91,142,132
45,571,066
136,713,197
45,571,066
22,785,533
13,671,320
91,142,132
2,734,264
13,671,320
91,142,132
55,560,243
83,349,000
875,337,666
878,816,166
878,816,166
878,816,166
878,816,166
25
PH LC 5. THAY I VN LU NG
Nm
2014
2015
K I
2016
K II
K I
2017
K II
K I
K II
-118,460,942
-31,926,981
-87,137,304
-25,076,072
30,326,400
40,824,000
73,467,000
73,467,000
86,070,600
86,070,600
30,326,400.000
10,497,600
32,643,000
12,603,600
-86,070,600
26
PH LC 6. BNG CN I LI / L
Bo co thu nhp
Nm
Doanh s bn gp
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
K I
K I
K I
K II
k I
1,721,412,000
1,721,412,000
73,467,000
73,467,000
86,070,600
86,070,600
576,201,600
775,656,000 1,395,873,000
1,395,873,000
1,635,341,400
1,635,341,400
Gi vn hng bn
398,348,307
504,771,576
795,359,258
795,229,258
878,816,166
878,816,166
123,143,568
116,314,224
121,849,258
121,849,258
125,225,714
127,805,564
521,491,875
621,085,800
917,208,516
917,078,516
1,004,041,880
1,006,621,730
54,709,725
154,570,200
478,664,484
478,794,484
631,299,520
628,719,670
4,900,000
3,375,847
1,745,003
Doanh s bn rng
30,326,400
816,480,000 1,469,340,000
K II
1,469,340,000
Tr: VAT
606,528,000
K II
40,824,000
Chi ph hot ng
18,042,500
49,809,725
151,194,353
476,919,481
478,794,484
631,299,520
628,719,670
18,042,500
49,809,725
151,194,353
476,919,481
478,794,484
631,299,520
628,719,670
18,042,500
5,977,167
18,143,322
57,230,338
57,455,338
75,755,942
75,446,360
1,000,000
43,832,558
132,051,030
1,000,000
419,689,143
420,339,146
1,000,000
555,543,577
552,273,309
18,042,500
27
PH LC 7. BO CO NGN LU
Nm
0
2014
1
2015
K I
Ngn lu vo
Doanh thu rng
Thay i AR (u
k - cui k)
Li tin gi khng
k hn
Thanh l ti sn
Tng ngn lu
vo
Ngn lu ra
Chi ph hot ng
Thay i AP (u
k - cui k)
Thay i CB (cui
k - u k)
Thu thu nhp
doanh nghip
Chi ph u t
Tng ngn lu ra
Ngn lu t do
ca d n
Ngn lu t do
tch ly ca d n
576,201,600
2
2016
K II
K I
3
2017
K II
K I
4
K II
k I
18,042,500
576,201,600
521,491,875
621,085,800
917,208,516
-118,460,942
-31,926,981
-87,137,304
-25,076,072
10,497,600
32,643,000
12,603,600
-86,070,600
5,977,167
18,143,322
57,230,338
57,455,338
75,755,942
75,446,360
94,785,000
125,111,400
0
419,505,700
0
639,945,142
1,300,000
888,601,549
0
0
987,137,454 1,054,721,750
0
995,997,491
0
0
-125,111,400
156,695,900
135,710,858
507,271,451
408,735,546
580,619,650
639,343,909
18,042,500
-125,111,400
31,584,500
292,406,758
642,982,309
916,006,997
30,326,400
18,042,500
28
Ngn lu t do
chit khu ca d
n
Ngn lu t do
chit khu tch ly
ca d n
Ngn lu t do
ca ch s hu
Ngn lu t do
ca ch n
-125,111,400
151,340,549
126,593,072
473,190,223
368,243,780
523,100,026
-125,111,400
26,229,149
277,933,620
599,783,294
841,434,003
-55,111,400
130,022,283
109,037,241
480,597,834
408,735,546
580,619,650
-70,000,000
26,673,617
26,673,617
26,673,617
Nm
DSCR
1.08
1.000
556,320,694
639,343,909
15,699,557
18,042,500
1,986,542,460
1,788,454,233
0.798
1.600
2.73
1
2015
K I
1.204
2
2016
K II
1.052
K I
1.072
TIU CH THNG
NPV d n trn ngn lu vo ca d n
NPV d n trn ngn lu ra ca d n
B/C
TIU CH SA I
NPV d n trn ngn lu t do ca d n (khng tnh dng tin nm 0)
B/C
3
2017
K II
1.000
K I
1.204
K II
1.052
6,468,120,988
4,481,578,528
1.443
2,111,653,860
22.01
29
30