December 16, 2005 MEGA DAM PROJECTS 2 SEQUENCE OF PRESENTATION A. PAKISTANS NEED FOR LARGE DAMS B. WATER AVAILABILITY VS POPULATION GROWTH C. NUMBER OF DAMS UNDER CONSTRUCTION IN WORLD D. PROJECT LAYOUT E. DESIGN EARTHQUAKE F. COST ESTIMATES G. APPREHENSIONS OF NWFP & SINDH H. IMPLEMENTATIONS SCHEDULE J. FUNDING REQUIREMENTS 3 PAKISTANS NEED FOR LARGE DAMS WATER SCARCE COUNTRY AS PER GLOBAL CRITERIA RAPIDLY INCREASING POPULATION DEPLETING ON-LINE STORAGES LARGE ESCAPAGES OF UNCONTROLLED FLOOD IN SEA EFFECTIVE RIVER REGULATION AND INTEGRATION OF EXISTING IRRIGATION SYSTEM 4 WATER APPORTIONMENT ACCORD 1991 PARA-6 THE NEED FOR STORAGES, WHEREEVER FEASIBLE ON THE INDUS AND OTHER RIVERS WAS ADMITTED AND RECOGNIZED BY THE PARTICIPANTS FOR PLANNED FUTURE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT 5 WATER AVAILABILITY Vs POPULATION GROWTH 5260 3888 2751 2129 1555 1282 1066 915 858 34 46 65 84 115 139.5 195.5 167.72 208.4 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2002 2010 2020 2025 YEAR P E R
C A P I T A
A V A I L A B I L I T Y
( M )
3
30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 PER CAPITA AVAILIBILITY POPULATION GROWTH W A T E R
( M A F ) AVG. (35.2) Source: WRMD WAPDA Upto 03.10.05 8 1. From Western Rivers u/s RIM Stations 146 MAF 2. Uses above RIM Stations (NWFP) 5 MAF 3. Net available at Rim Stations 141 MAF 4. Distribution by IRSA (1991-WAA) 117.35 MAF 5. Canal Diversion 106 MAF 6. Not available for distribution (as per Accord) (4-5) 11.35 MAF 7. Water flowing downstream Kotri (3-5) 35 MAF WATER AVAILABILITY IN PAKISTAN 9 RESERVOIR GROSS STORAGE CAPACITY GROSS STORAGE LOSS ORIGINAL YEAR 2004 YEAR 2004 YEAR 2012 YEAR 2025 TARBELA 11.62 (1974) 8.36 (72%) 3.26 (28%) 4.17 (36%) 5.51 (47%) MANGLA 5.88 (1967) 4.64 (78%) 1.24 (22%) 1.72 (29%) 1.97 (34%) CHASHMA 0.87 (1971) 0.48 (55%) 0.39 (45%) 0.48 (55%) 0.50 (57%) TOTAL 18.37 13.48 (73%) 4.89 (27%) 6.37 (35%) 7.98 (43%) RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION (MAF) 10 NUMBER OF DAMS UNDER CONSTRUCTION IN SOME COUNTRIES Country Total No. of Dams Above 50 Ft. Above 200 Ft. CHINA 253 59 TURKEY 113 22 INDIA 28 6 IRAN 52 28 JAPAN 97 35 PAKISTAN 3 1 (Gomal Dam) Source: ICOLD register of Dams 11 PROPOSED DAMS ON INDUS AKHORI DAM SKARDU DAM 12 Barotha Power House JAHANGIRA NOWSHERA
PESHAWAR ATTOCK CITY SWABI I N D U S
R I V E R K A B U L R IV E R ATTOCK GORGE 5 MILES AKORA BASHAL KOHAT JAND KALABAGH DAM SITE FATEH JANG TARBELA DAM HARO RIVER N . W . F . P P U N J A B KHUSHA GARH S O A N R IV E R KALABAGH DAM KALABAGH BARRAGE KALABAGH TOWN RESERVOIR AREA EL. 915 SCALE 1=550000 1" = 8.7 Miles Approx. MUNDA DAM 0.67 MAF S W A T
R I V E R PABBI
1 6 0 K M 1 8 H WARSAK DAM 14000 AF 40 KM 9H AKHORI DAM 6 0 0 0 0
C f s . 56000 C fs. N K B - A t t o c k
B r i d g e 1 6 0
k m 2 4
H PROVINCIAL BOUNDARY HASSAN ABADAL AKHORA KHATTAK 13 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT LAYOUT 14 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT SALIENT FEATURES RESERVOIR GROSS STORAGE 7.9 MAF LIVE STORAGE 6.1 MAF RETENTION LEVEL 915 FT MAIN DAM CREST ELEVATION 940 FT. MAXIMUM HEIGHT 260 FT. LENGTH 11,000 FT. SPILLWAYS OVERFLOW SPILLWAY 1,070,000 Cusecs ORIFICE 980,000 Cusecs POWERSTATION NUMBER OF UNITS 8/12 Nos. Initial/Ultimate INSTALLED CAPACITY 2,400/3,600 MW (12,400 GWh per year) ESTIMATED COST (SEPTEMBER 2005) US $ 6.1 Billion NO LOW LEVEL OUTLETS INCLUDED IN PRESENT DESIGN 15 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT SEISMIC DESIGN THE EVALUATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD AND DETERMINATION OF MAXIMUM CREDIBLE EARTHQUAKE (MCE) AND OPERATING BASIS EARTHQUAKE (OBE) WAS MADE WITH THE ADVICE OF PROF. ALLEN, PROF. AMBRESSEYS AND MR. ABUL FARAH. THE PARAMETER OF MCE M = 7 AND a = 0.4g ARE BASED ON THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM EARTHQUAKE OCCURRING ON KALABAGH FAULT WHICH IS 12 KM FROM THE DAM SITE AT ITS NEAREST POINT. OTHER MAPPED FAULTS ARE SUFFICIENTLY FAR AWAY. 16 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT PROVINCE
POPULATION * TO BE RESETTLED LAND AFFECTED (ACRES) BARANI IRRIGATED TOTAL PUNJAB 78,000 21,600 2,900 24,500 N.W.F.P 42,000 2,900 100 3,000 TOTAL 120,000 24,500 3,000 27,500 * December 2004 17 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT Cost Estimates (US$ Million) Sr. No. Description September 2005 1. Resettlement & Relocation 675 2. Preparatory Work, Colonies, Contractor Camp 400 3. Diversion Works, Dam Embankment and Earthwork 630 4. Power Intakes, Conduits & Power Station 920 5. Spillway 450 6. Transmission Lines and E&M Works 550 7. Physical Contingencies 415 Sub Total 4040 8. Price Escalation 793 9. IDC 1146 10. Taxes & Duties 121 Total Investment Cost 6100 18 APPREHENSIONS OF NWFP 19 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT APPREHENSIONS OF NWFP APPREHENSIONS FACTUAL POSITION POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING OF NOWSHERA TOWN AND PESHAWAR VALLEY IN CASE OF UNPRECEDENTED FLOOD MODERN FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM WOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE WARNING AGAINST FLOODS TARBELA IS ALSO ON LINE NOW DRAINAGE OF MARDAN, PABBI AND SWABI WILL BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED CONSERVATION LEVEL OF KALABAGH DAM IS 915 FT WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE LOWEST GROUND LEVEL OF MARDAN, PABBI AND SWABI SCARP AREAS FERTILE CULTIVATED LAND WOULD BE SUBMERGED 2,900 ACRES OF BARANI LAND AND ONLY 100 ACRES OF IRRIGATED LAND WOULD BE SUBMERGED IN THE RESERVOIR LARGE POPULATION WOULD BE DISPLACED RESETTLEMENT PLAN WOULD ENSURE PROPER COMPENSATION TO THE AFFECTEES PUNJAB NWFP TOTAL NO. OF AFFECTEES 78,000 42,000 120,000 LAND AFFECTED (Acres) 24,500 3,000 27,500 20 Khura Khel Tordhar Turlandi Misri Banda Mughal Kai Mian Isa R.S Basal Pind Sultani Dher Gandab Nizampur Pasta Chand Chorlakhi Rakhwan
Chatru Mela Gujar Mela Sharqi Tangi Band Mullawali Kanjka Kari Kaptan Malla Katch R .S . M akh ad R o ad Taliwala Dhok Chakki Chooi Kani Ziarat Dhok Mahan gan Uchri R.S.
R.S.Jhamat R.S.Chhab R.S.Injra
Dupur Uchri
Punoti Dhok
Girdi
Dhok Bazgul
Goah
Toudo Mela
Uchri Dhok Dupur Band Galkap Dhok Pirani Tut Naka Kalan Oli Terminal Dhok Rehma Dhok Majid S
O
A
N
R
I
V
E
R Khamar Dhok Trap Shah Muhammad wali Jabbi
Kuthera
Suriali
Dandi Pindi Gheb
New Kothera Rakh Bani Trap Kanl
Chakki Shah Jee Peha Hamleti New Sharqi
Dabakki Kazaki Kutti Khel New Rakhwan East
New Makhad New Shah Muhammad wali New Khairabad Dheri Kund New Akora New Jahangira Mullah Mansur New Mansar New Dher New Barotha Bagh Thoa New Jabbi Nara Pari Pari New Chorlakhi Mankur New Khushalgarh Bela Ziarat Model Village (Proposed) New Jabbi 3400000 3350000 I N D U S R I V E R IN D U S R IV E R K a lp a n i N . SCALE 0 5 5 15 Km. 10 5 0 5 H a r o
R . (Campbellpore) Attock City S il R iv e r Dhok Abbaki P U N J A B R e s i
N . Khushalgarh G am b h ir R iver T a r i
T a i P R
K o h a t
J a n d
B r . K o h a t
T a i RESERVOIR AREA WITH PROPOSED MODEL VILLAGES KALABAGH DAM SITE 10 Miles Shadipur Jand Zara Miana Pir Sabak Khairabad Gariala Mansar Camp R I V E R K A B U L Cherat Daud Khe Kal abagh R.S.Massan Pir Pehai Makhad JINNAH BARRAGE KOHAT CHARSADDA PESHAWAR NOWSHERA CANTT. N. W. F. P Pabbi Nisatta NOWSHERA CITY Muhib Banda MARDAN Jallozai Basal Jahangira Akora Khattak Reservoir Limits (Retention Level 915) Town /Village (Existing) Road Railway line LEGEND: RIVER N 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 5 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 5 0 0 0 0 KALABAGH RESERVOIR AREA WITH PROPOSED MODEL VILLAGES 21 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT 3 D VIEW OF NOWSHERA VALLEY 22 PIR SABAK 23 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT L-SECTION OF KABUL RIVER 24 DRAINAGE LEVELS IN KABUL VALLEY WITH KALABAGH 910 930 950 970 990 1010 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 RESERVOIR RETENATION EL. 915 DISTANCE U/S DAM SITE IN MILES L E V E L
I N
F E E T
955 960 940 970 1000 25 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT KABUL RIVER SECTION KM-5 (9270 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PIR SABAK) 26 APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH 27 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH APPREHENSIONS FACTUAL POSITION NO WATER IS AVAILABLE FOR FILLING KALABAGH RESERVOIR
AVERAGE ANNUAL OUTFLOW BELOW KOTRI IS 35.2 MAF MOST CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE SHOWS 16 MAF FOR STORAGE / DEVELOPMENT ABOUT 6 MAF IS JUST REPLACEMENT FOR TARBELA, MANGLA AND CHASHMA DUE TO SEDIMENTATION SINDH WOULD BE CONVERTED INTO A DESERT AFTER MANGLA & TARBELA DAMS, SINDH CANAL WITHDRAWALS INCREASED FROM 37.20 MAF TO 44.47 MAF CANAL WITHDRAWALS FOR SINDH WOULD FURTHER INCREASE BY 2 MAF AFTER KALABAGH 28 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH APPREHENSIONS FACTUAL POSITION RIVERINE AREA WOULD GO OUT OF PRODUCTION DUE TO CONTROL OVER RIVER
FLOOD PEAKS IN EXCESS OF 300,000 CUSECS WOULD STILL BE COMING ASSURED WATER SUPPLY THROUGH PROPOSED TUBEWELLS WILL BE MADE ROUND THE YEAR INDUS DELTA MANGROVE FOREST WOULD VANISH ONLY 7,000 ACRES OUT OF 294,000 ACRES MANGROVE FOREST ARE IN INDUS ACTIVE DELTA ESTABLISHED THROUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED AS REQUIRED MINIMUM WATER (AS PER LATEST STUDIES) WILL STILL BE FLOWING BELOW KOTRI 29 RIVERAIN AREA DEVELOPMENT (SINDH) THROUGH TUBEWELLS 30 THE INDUS DELTA MANGROVES AND LANDFORMS 31 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH APPREHENSIONS FACTUAL POSITION FISH PRODUCTION BELOW KOTRI WOULD BE AFFECTED
NO EVIDENCE ESTABLISHES THIS APPREHENSION AS FISH PRODUCTION INCREASED MARINE FISH (THOUSAND TONS) - 1995 283 - 2000 308 - 1996 270 - 2001 315 - 1997 292 - 2002 318 - 1998 303 - 2003 274 - 1999 351 - 2004 275 STUDY REQUIRED TO DETERMINE ESCAPAGE DOWNSTREAM KOTRI ROYALTY FROM KALABAGH WOULD GO TO PUNJAB ALTHOUGH THE PROJECT WOULD BE FEDERALLY FUNDED IT IS TO BE DEALT WITH CONSTITUTIONALLY 32 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT SEASON-WISE AND ANNUAL CANAL HEAD WITHDRAWALS OF SINDH (1962-63 TO 1999-2000) SEASON PRE- MANGLA (1962-67) AVERAGE PRE- TARBELA (1967-76) AVERAGE POST- TARBELA (1976-2000) AVERAGE ADDITIONAL WATER FOR SINDH AFTER MANGLA AND TARBELA KHARIF 26.16 28.66 29.45 3.29 12.6% RABI 11.04 12.19 15.02 3.98 36.1% TOTAL 37.20 40.85 44.47 7.27 19.5% 33 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT HOW SOON CONSTRUCTION CAN START ? All designs & Tender Documents ready Revised Environmental/Resettlement Studies Underway. Preliminary Works i.e. Access Roads, Colonies etc. can also start. Construction can start in 2006. 34 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT OVERALL IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE Sr. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 No. 6 Construction 7 Resettlement 2 1 5 Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Prequalification of Contractors, Bidding, Evaluation and Award of Contract Pre-Construction Activities (Preliminary Works like Access, Camps, Land Acquisition etc.) 4 3 1 2 ACTIVITY 5 6 3 4 7 8 Government Approval Upgradation of Planning Report, Designs & Tender Documents First Filling 35 SHARING OF FUTURE STORAGE PROJECTS (Water Apportionment Accord 1991) PUNJAB 37%
SIND 37%
NWFP 14%
BALUCHISTAN 12%
36 BHASHA DAM PROJECT 37 BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT SATTELITE IMAGERY OF RESERVOIR BASHA DIAMER DAM 38 Drilling in River and Overland on Selected Axis. Finalization & Improvement on Basic Studies: Hydrological Structural Hydraulics Construction Material Geotechnical/Seismological Electrical & Mechanical Preparation of Feasibility Level Designs. Environmental Impact Assessment. Resettlement Issues. Preparation of Cost Estimate. Economic & Financial Evaluation. Finalization of Feasibility Report (August 2004). BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT STUDIES CARRIED OUT 39 BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT APPROVAL BY PANNEL OF EXPERTS WAPDA Appointed an international Panel of Experts (2004). POE made in depth review of the Work Done by the Consultants and made detailed site visit. POE Endorsed the Feasibility. 40 BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT LAYOUT PLAN/CONFIGURATION 41 BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT SALIENT FEATURES Sr. No. DESCRIPTION CONCRETE GRAVITY DAM AT AXIS-D ROLLER COMPACTED CONCRETE CONSTRUCTION 1. DIVERSION TUNNELS
5 No. WITH TOTAL LENGTH OF 7.5 Km 2. COFFER DAMS
55 m HIGH UPSTREAM & 25 m HIGH DOWNSTREAM 3. MAIN DAM
281 m HIGH, 990 m LONG 12 m, WIDE CREST 4. RESERVOIR GROSS CAPACITY LIVE CAPACITY FULL RESERVOIR LEVEL
9.04 MAF (11.15 BCM) 7.30 MAF (9.05 BCM) El. 1170 m 5. MAIN SPILLWAY TYPE DESIGN DISCHARGE
8 CONDUITS FOR IRRIGATION AND 4 FOR SLUICING 7. POWERHOUSES LOCATION & TYPE NO. OF UNITS TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY
TWO UNDERGROUND, ONE ON EACH BANK 12 UNITS, EACH OF 375 MW (6 ON EACH POWERHOUSE) 4500 MW (16,770 GWh) 8. ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECT APPROX. POPULATION AFFECTED SUBMERGENCE OF KKH
23,700 (2,850 HOUSEHOLDS) 110 Km 42 BASHA DIAMER DAM SEISMIC HAZARD STUDIES SEISMIC DESIGN PARAMETERS MAXIMUM DESIGN EARTHQUAKE (MDE) TAKEN EQUAL TO THE MAXIMUM CREDIBLE EARTHQUAKE (MCE) 0.40 g OPERATING BASIS EARTHQUAKE (OBE) 0.21 g 43 BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT POWER TRANSMISSION FAR AWAY FROM LOAD CENTER. FIRST 325 KM THROUGH RUGGED MOUNTAINS. MORE COSTLIER AND DIFFICULT TO CONSTRUCT. TOTAL COST U.S. $ 986 MILLION WHICH IS ABOUT 15 % OF TOTAL FINANCIAL COST. 44 BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT
ALTERNATE TRANSMISSION ROUTES ON TOPO MAP 45 BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT ENVIRONMENT AND RESETTLEMENT POPULATION AFFECTED 24,350 NO. OF VILLAGES & HOUSEHOLDS 32 & 2,833 AGRIC. LAND WHICH WILL SUBMERGE 1,600 Acres ECONOMIC TREES 52,000 AREA UNDER RESERVOIR(El.1175 m) 32,000 Acres LENGTH OF KKH WHICH WILL SUBMERGE LAND REQUIRED FOR RESETTLEMENT 110 Km 5,500 Acres LAND IDENTIFIED FOR RESETTLEMENT 11,250 Acres PROPOSED NEW SETTLEMENTS 9 INFRASTRUCTURE Roads, Water Supply, Schools, Health Centers etc. APPROXIMATE COST US$ 200 Million 46 BHASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT RELOCATION/REHEBLITATION OF KKH Hasanabdal Length of Section BASHA DIAMER DAM 47 BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT UPGRADATION AND RELOCATIONOF KKH Upgradation Reach (Havelian to Dam Site) Length = 323 Km Cost = 9.2 Billion Rupees Relocation Reach (Sazin to Raikot Bridge) Length 140 Km Cost 14.30 Billion Rupees 48 BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT CURRENT STATUS Consultancy for Detailed Design & Preparation of 11.07.2005 Tender Documents Awarded Consultants Mobilized 05.09.2005 Completion Period 30 months Date of Completion 04-03-2008 49 Sr. No. CALENDER YEAR (JAN-DEC) 2 0 0 2
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 4
2 0 1 5
2 0 1 6
1 Feasibility Study Stage-I (Completed) 2 Preparation of Tender Documents and Detail Engineering 3 Additional Investigation Studies and Model Testing 4 Pre-construction Activities Land Acquisition, Up-gradation of KKH 5 Tendering Process Up to Award 6 Mobilization of Contractor 7 Construction Activities 8 Rehabilitation/ Resettlement including Relocation of KKH BHASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT OVERALL IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE 50 SKARDU / KATZARAH DAM PROJECT 51 SKARDU DAM Skardu Shigar SKARDU DAM SITE
SKARDU/KATZARAH DAM PROJECT 52 Airport Right Bank KILOMETER M E T E R (Through Air-Port) X-SECTION A-A RESERVOIR AREA SKARDU DAM PROJECT Width = 47 m Length = 3658 m Elevation = 2232 m Left Bank Road River Surface 2258 Meters (Capacity=8.0 MAF) 2350 Meters (Capacity=20.30 MAF) 2240 Meters (Capacity=5.2 MAF) Normal Res. Level CROSS SECTION THROUGH AIRPORT 53 STATUS & TECHNICAL ISSUES OF FUTURE DAMS KALABAGH BHASHA AKHORI SKARDU/ KATZARAH WATER AVAIL (MAF) 90 50 14 27 LIVE STORAGE (MAF) 6.10 7.34 6.00 UNDER STUDY POWER POTENTIAL (MW) 3600 4500 600 UNDER STUDY LOGISTIC PROBLEMS LEAST MORE LESS MAXIMUM POWER DISPERSAL NEAREST TO LOAD CENTRE VERY DIFFICULT NEAREST TO LOAD CENTRE MOST DIFFICULT HEIGHT OF DAM (FT.) 260 908 418 860 STATUS F D T F AUG 04 D MAR 08 F DEC 05 PF START OF CONSTRUCTION 2006 2009 2015 (UNCERTAIN) SEISMICITY LESS MORE LESS MORE Environment Persons Displaced
120,000
24,000
49,300
160,000 Roads Affected MINOR KKH Submerge 110 Km Upgrade 320 Km 97 KM 40 Km submerge upgrade 680 Km Land Submergence (Acres) 110,200 32000 59,200 90,000 Cost ($ Billion) 6.1 6.5 5 ? PF Pre Feasibility F Feasibility D Design T Tender Documents