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Hydrological modelling in the

context of land use change and


climate change
Emil A. Cherrington
Research Associate, CATHALAC
14.08.14
Revisin general
1. Overview: ERI CaribSave project

2. Theory: Water balance

3. Q & A
Environmental Research Institute-University of Belize
CATHALAC
Land Cover
Scenarios
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
C
U
R
R
E
N
T
S
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_
M
R
K
T
S
2
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P
O
L
I
C
Y
S
4
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S
U
S
T
Water
Bare
Wetland
Scrub
Forest
Grassland
Ag
Urban
source: WRI / ICRAN-MAR (2006)
Project duration:
Feb. 2013 Sept.
2014 (18 months)

Location: Belizes
watersheds,
including trans-
boundary areas in
Mexico, Guatemala
G
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a
t
e
m
a
l
a

G
u
a
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Determine the current
demand for and supply of
water in Belizes major and
minor watersheds

Assess future supply and
demand against the range of
future land use scenarios and
future CC scenarios

Examine how water quality
might change as a result of
CC and land use change
scenarios

Image credit: Jason Tullis
II. Theory:
Hydrological modelling
Among others:
HEC-HMS con HEC-RAS
SWAT (ArcSWAT / MapWindow SWAT)
Kineros
AGWA
N-SPECT / OpenNSPECT
WEAP
InVEST
Available platforms
Runoff + erosion as part of the hydrological cycle
Characteristics related to the soil, land cover / land use, topography, and rainfall determine the runoff.
source: NOAA CCAP
Influence of land cover on erosion
source: L. Buffett (2012)
Required data inputs for modelling
Land use / land cover

Digital elevation model (DEM)

Soil type
USGS hydrological group
Soil erodibility (K factor)
Other parameters

Climate data (e.g. rainfall,
temperature)

Modelling with SWAT
Model outputs
1. Evapotranspiration
2. Infiltration
3. Aquifer recharge
4. Runoff
5. Stream flow
6. Erosion
source: Neitsh et al. (2011)
Other results
Areas of high vulnerability
Identification of the areas which contribute
most to sediment loads / areas which lose
most of their soils
Quantification of the area (e.g. in hectares or
km
2
) at risk per sub-watershed / basin
Sediment accumulation
Identification of the sections of rivers which
receive the most sediments
Medida de densidad de sedimentacin por
rea de subcuenca
Main N-SPECT functions
Runoff model
U.S. Soil Conservation
Service (SCS) curve
number technique

Erosion model
Universal soil loss equation
(USLE)
Event: Modified
(MUSLE)
Annual: Revised
(RUSLE)

Contaminant models
Using concentration
coefficients


NOAA CCAP
Soil curve numbers in N-SPECT
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Methods (pt1)
Stream burning using data on river network locations
This is to assure adequate flow calculations, despite
potential / likely errors in the digital elevation models
(DEMs)
Filling DEM to remove false
depressions (sinks)
This step is necessary to
ensure that flow calculations
function (i.e flow direction, flow
accumulation exercises)
Spatial hydrology basics
Methods (pt2)
Flow direction
only 8 possible routes
Flow accumulation
(based on the flow direction routine)
1




Based on the DEM, this will show the approximate hydrological network



1
ArcGIS Desktop Help 9.2. 2007. Calculating flow accumulation. Hydrology (Spatial
Analysis). webhelp.esri.com

Spatial hydrology basics
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Estimating erosion using the USLE method
Focused on the production / concentration of sediment
USLE = Universal Soil Loss Equation
Annual & Event-based (RUSLE & MUSLE)
RUSLE: A = R * K * L * S * C * P
Where:
A = quantity of soil lost in a year
R = rainfall erosivity factor
K = soil erodability factor
L = slope length factor
S = slope steepness factor
C = cover management factor
P = supporting management practices factor


III. Q & A