climate change Emil A. Cherrington Research Associate, CATHALAC 14.08.14 Revisin general 1. Overview: ERI CaribSave project
2. Theory: Water balance
3. Q & A Environmental Research Institute-University of Belize CATHALAC Land Cover Scenarios 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% C U R R E N T S 1 _ M R K T S 2 _ P O L I C Y S 4 _ S U S T Water Bare Wetland Scrub Forest Grassland Ag Urban source: WRI / ICRAN-MAR (2006) Project duration: Feb. 2013 Sept. 2014 (18 months)
Location: Belizes watersheds, including trans- boundary areas in Mexico, Guatemala G u a t e m a l a
G u a t e m a l a
Determine the current demand for and supply of water in Belizes major and minor watersheds
Assess future supply and demand against the range of future land use scenarios and future CC scenarios
Examine how water quality might change as a result of CC and land use change scenarios
Image credit: Jason Tullis II. Theory: Hydrological modelling Among others: HEC-HMS con HEC-RAS SWAT (ArcSWAT / MapWindow SWAT) Kineros AGWA N-SPECT / OpenNSPECT WEAP InVEST Available platforms Runoff + erosion as part of the hydrological cycle Characteristics related to the soil, land cover / land use, topography, and rainfall determine the runoff. source: NOAA CCAP Influence of land cover on erosion source: L. Buffett (2012) Required data inputs for modelling Land use / land cover
Digital elevation model (DEM)
Soil type USGS hydrological group Soil erodibility (K factor) Other parameters
Climate data (e.g. rainfall, temperature)
Modelling with SWAT Model outputs 1. Evapotranspiration 2. Infiltration 3. Aquifer recharge 4. Runoff 5. Stream flow 6. Erosion source: Neitsh et al. (2011) Other results Areas of high vulnerability Identification of the areas which contribute most to sediment loads / areas which lose most of their soils Quantification of the area (e.g. in hectares or km 2 ) at risk per sub-watershed / basin Sediment accumulation Identification of the sections of rivers which receive the most sediments Medida de densidad de sedimentacin por rea de subcuenca Main N-SPECT functions Runoff model U.S. Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number technique
Erosion model Universal soil loss equation (USLE) Event: Modified (MUSLE) Annual: Revised (RUSLE)
Contaminant models Using concentration coefficients
NOAA CCAP Soil curve numbers in N-SPECT 24
Methods (pt1) Stream burning using data on river network locations This is to assure adequate flow calculations, despite potential / likely errors in the digital elevation models (DEMs) Filling DEM to remove false depressions (sinks) This step is necessary to ensure that flow calculations function (i.e flow direction, flow accumulation exercises) Spatial hydrology basics Methods (pt2) Flow direction only 8 possible routes Flow accumulation (based on the flow direction routine) 1
Based on the DEM, this will show the approximate hydrological network
Spatial hydrology basics 26 Estimating erosion using the USLE method Focused on the production / concentration of sediment USLE = Universal Soil Loss Equation Annual & Event-based (RUSLE & MUSLE) RUSLE: A = R * K * L * S * C * P Where: A = quantity of soil lost in a year R = rainfall erosivity factor K = soil erodability factor L = slope length factor S = slope steepness factor C = cover management factor P = supporting management practices factor