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Model Facts

This spreadsheet supports student analysis of the case, "Bayern


Brauerei" (UVA -F-1027).
Please note:
1) All worksheets have been protected to prevent any inadvertent errors
by students. To unprotect the worksheet press Control "u" and to protect
worksheet press Control "p" (use lower case).
2) This is a working model. Assumptions / Inputs presented can be
changed to vary the results.

3) As long as default spreadsheet calculation is set as "automatic"


impact of changing assumptions will be computed in real time.
Alternatively F9 function key may need to be invoked to recalculate
results. To set numerical calculation settings to automatic look under
tools, options, calculations menu.

Revised: January 2, 1998


Copyright (C) 1998 by the Trustees of the University of Virginia Darden School Foundation.

Page 1

Assumptions

Exhibit 1
Bayern Brauerei
Forecast Assumptions
Assumptions
Sales Growth: Eastern Germany
Sales Growth: Western Germany
Operating Margin: East
Operating Margin: West
Capital Expenditures/Sales
Depreciation to Gross PPE
Dividend Payout
Melded Interest Rate
Average Tax Rate
Cash to Sales
Days Sales Outstanding:
Eastern Germany
Western Germany
Allowance for Doubtful Accounts
as a % of Accts. Rec.
Payables to Sales
Inventories to Sales
Other Current Assets to Sales
Other Current Liabs. to Sales

Years

(Actual)
312.00%
2.50%
6.20%
6.20%

0.05
0.10
0.75
0.11
0.35
0.12
90
41
0.02
0.05
0.14
0.1
0.11

Page 2

(Actual)
47.20%
3.11%
6.10%
6.10%

(Proj'd)
45.00%
3.00%
7.00%
7.00%

(Proj'd)
30.00%
3.00%
7.00%
7.00%
7

Exhibit 1

Exhibit 1
DEUTSCHE BRAUEREI
Historical and Projected Income Statements
Fiscal Year Ended December 31
1997
(Actual)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

Sales: Germany
Sales: Ukraine
Net Sales
Operating Expenses:
Production Costs and Expenses
Admin. and Selling Expenses
Depreciation
Excise duties
Total Operating Expenses
Operating Profit
Allowance for Doubtful Accounts
Interest Expense
Earnings Before Taxes
Income Taxes
Net Earnings

62,032
62,032

1998
(Actual)

1999
(Actual)

32,258
12,481
3,609
9,143
(57,491)
4,541
(5)
(1,185)
3,351
(1,132)
2,219

62,653
4,262
66,915
7.87%
35,366
13,014
4,314
9,108
(61,802)
5,113
(7)
(1,064)
4,042
(1,396)
2,646

64,219
17,559
81,779
22.21%
44,271
16,274
5,844
10,486
(76,875)
4,904
(38)
(1,046)
3,820
(1,510)
2,310

1,669
550

1,988
658

1,734
577

Dividends on :
15 Dividends to All Common Shares
16 Retentions of Earnings

Page 3

2000
(Actual)

2001
(Proj'd)

66,216
68,203
25,847
37,479
92,063 105,682
12.58%
14.79%
49,827
61,393
18,505
18,500
6,068
6,766
11,557
11,625
(85,957) (98,284)
6,106
7398
(24)
(201)
(1,304)
(1,468)
4,778
5,729
(1,864)
(2,005)
2,915
3,724

2,186
729

2,793
931

Exhibit 1

Exhibit 1 -contdDEUTSCHE BRAUEREI


Historical and Projected Balance Sheets
(fiscal year ended December 31; all figures in EUR thousands)
1997
(Actual)

1998
(Actual)

1999
(Actual)

2000
(Actual)

2001
(Proj'd)

5,366

8,183

9,813

11,048

12,682

6,933
0
(69)
6,133
18,363
3,102
58,435
(23,404)
35,031
56,496

7,142
424
(76)
6,401
22,075
3,189
58,435
(27,719)
30,716
55,980

7,222
2,090
(113)
7,817
28,829
3,416
60,682
(33,662)
27,120
59,365

7,517
6,168
(137)
12,889
37,485
3,520
60,682
(39,631)
21,052
62,057

7,661
9,241
(338)
14,795
44,042
3,500
67,633
(46,397)
21,266
68,808

2,987
3,578
7,397
13,962
16,107
26,427
56,496

10,236
3,755
7,361
21,352
7,544
27,085
55,981

12,004
4,103
8,996
25,103
6,601
27,661
59,365

13,089
4,792
10,127
28,008
5,658
28,390
62,056

17,862
5,284
11,625
34,771
4,715
29,321
68,807

Assets
1
2

3
4
5
6
7
8
9

Cash
Accounts Receivable
Germany
Ukraine
Allowance for Doubtful Accounts
Inventories
Total Current Assets
Investments & Other Assets
Gross Property Plant & Equipt.
Accumulated Depreciation
Net Property Plant & Equipt.
Total Assets

Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:


10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Bank Borrowings (Short Term)


Accounts Payable
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Long Term Debt: Bank Borrowings
Shareholders' Equity
Total Liabs. & Stkhldrs' Eq.

Page 4

Exhibit 1

Page 5

Exhibit 1

2002
(Proj'd)
70,249
48,722
118,971
12.57% 5-15%
71,609
18,500
7,448
13,087
(110,644)
8327
(60)
(1,634)
6,633
(2,322)
4,312

3,234
1,078

Page 6

Exhibit 1

Condensed Balance Sheet 1

2002
(Proj'd)
14,277
7,891
12,014
(398)
16,656
50,439
3,500
74,485
(53,845)
20,639
74,578

21,372
5,949
13,087
40,407
3,772
30,399
74,578

1989
(Actual)

1990
(Actual)

5,366
2,022
38,133
45,521

8,183
2,775
33,905
44,863
38,219

19,094
26,427
45,521

17,780
27,085
44,865

1989
(Actual)

1990
(Actual)

Assets
Cash
WCR
FA
Total Assets

Liabilities
Debt
Equity
Total Liabilities

Condensed Balance Sheet 2

NWC
WCR
Net liquid balance

4,401
2,022
2,379

724
2,775
(2,051)

Ratio Analysis
1989
(Actual)

1990
(Actual)

ROE
Profit Margin
AT
L

8.40%
3.58%
1.10
2.14

9.77%
3.95%
1.20
2.07

ROA

3.93%

4.73%

4,541
6.21%
33.78%
45,521

5,113
5.98%
34.54%
44,863

EBIT
r
tc
Total Capital

Page 7

Exhibit 1

ROIC
(ROIC-r*(1-tc))
Leverage

ROE

6.61%
7.46%
0.024961 0.035432
0.722519 0.656452
8.41%
9.79%
8.40%

Profit Margin
Retention ratio
1+D/E
a
w

9.77%

3.58%
3.95%
24.79%
24.87%
1.722519 1.656452
0
0.15428
0.15428

Sustainable growth (1)

10.56%

Sustainable growth (2)

2.43%

Page 8

Exhibit 1

Page 9

Exhibit 1

1991
(Actual)

1992
(Actual)

1993
(Proj'd)

1994
(Proj'd)

9,813
3,917
30,536
44,267

11,048
11,518
24,572
47,138

12,682
14,451
24,766
51,899

14,277
17,127
24,139
55,543

41.1%
18,605
27,661
46,266

194.0%
18,747
28,390
47,137

25.5%
22,577
29,321
51,898

18.5%
25,144
30,399
55,543

1991
(Actual)
3,726
3,917
(191)

1991
(Actual)

1992
(Actual)
9,476
11,518
(2,042)

1992
(Actual)

1993
(Proj'd)
9,270
14,451
(5,181)

1993
(Proj'd)

1,142
7,601
8%
8%
91.35887 608.0455

1994
(Proj'd)
10,032
17,127
(7,095)

1994
(Proj'd)

8.35%
2.82%
1.38
2.15

10.27%
3.17%
1.48
2.19

12.70%
3.52%
1.54
2.35

14.18%
3.62%
1.60
2.45

3.89%

4.70%

5.41%

5.78%

4,904
5.62%
39.53%
44,267

6,106
6.96%
39.00%
47,138

7,398
6.50%
35.00%
51,899

8,327
6.50%
35.00%
55,543

Page 10

Exhibit 1

6.70%
7.90%
9.27%
9.75%
0.03299 0.036593 0.050388 0.055211
0.672608 0.660341 0.769997 0.827136
8.92%
10.32%
13.15%
14.31%
8.35%

10.27%

12.70%

14.18%

2.82%
24.98%
1.672608
0.276205
0.07683
0.353036

3.17%
0.250055
1.660341
0.130112
0.739015
0.869127

3.52%
0.250022
1.769997
0.631074
0.215366
0.84644

3.62%
0.250023
1.827136
0.633273
0.201388
0.834661

3.34%

1.51%

1.84%

1.98%

2.09%

2.57%

3.18%

3.55%

Page 11

Exhibit 2

Exhibit 2
DEUTSCHE BRAUEREI
Sources and Uses of Funds
(fiscal year ending December 31; all figures in EUR thousands)
1997
(Actual)

1998
(Actual)

1999
(Actual)

2000
(Actual)

2001
(Proj'd)

2,646
7
4,314
7,249
177
(36)
14,357

2,311
38
5,844
1,768
348
1,635
11,944

2,915
24
6,068
1,085
690
1,131
11,913

3,724
201
6,766
4,773
492
1,498
17,454

1,988
2,817
209
424
267
87
8,563
0
14,357

1,734
1,630
79
3,665
1,417
227
943
2,247
11,942

2,186
1,234
296
2,078
5,072
104
943
0
11,913

2,793
1,634
144
3,074
1,906
(20)
943
6,980
17,454

Sources of Funds
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Net Income
Increases in Allowance for Doubtful Accts.
Depreciation
Increases in Short Term Debt
Increases in Accounts Payable
Increases in Other Current Liabilities
Total Sources of Cash

Uses of Funds
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Dividend Payments
Increases in Cash Balance
Increases in Accts. Receivable (Germany)
Increases in Accts Receivable (Ukraine)
Increases in Inventories
Increases in Other Assets
Reductions in Long Term Debt
Capital Expenditures
Total Uses of Cash

Page 12

Exhibit 2

2002
(Proj'd)
4,311
60
7,448
3,510
664
1,462
17,455

Statement of Cash Flows


1989
(Actual)
Net Income
+Depreciation
- D WCR
+ D Allowance
Cash Flows OPERATIONS

Cash Flows INVESTMENTS


3,234
1,595
230
2,772
1,861
0
943
6,822
17,457

D LT Debt
D ST Debt
Dividends
Cash Flows FINANCING
CASH VARIATION
Difference Cash

Page 13

1990
(Actual)

1991
(Actual)

1992
(Actual)

2,646
4,314
753

2,311
5,844
1,142

2,915
6,068
7,601

6,207

7,013

1,382

(86)

(2,475)

(104)

(8,563)
7,249
(1,988)
(3,302)

(943)
1,768
(1,734)
(909)

(943)
1,085
(2,186)
(2,044)

2,819
2,817

3,629
1,630

(766)
1,234

Exhibit 2

1993
(Proj'd)

1994
(Proj'd)

3,724
6,766
2,933

4,311
7,448
2,676

7,557

9,083

(6,960)

(6,821)

(943)
4,773
(2,793)
1,037

(943)
3,510
(3,234)
(667)

1,634
1,634

1,595
1,595

Page 14

Exhibit 3

Exhibit 3
DEUTSCHE BRAUEREI
Ratio Analyses of Historical and Projected Financial Statements
(fiscal year ended December 31; all figures in EUR thousands)
1997
(Actual)

1998
(Actual)

1999
(Actual)

2000
(Actual)

2001
(Proj'd)

Profitability
1
2
3
4
5
6

Operating Profit Margin (%)


Average Tax Rate (%)
Return on Sales (%)
Return on Equity (%)
Return on Net Assets (%)
Return on Assets (%)

7.3%
33.8%
3.6%
8.4%
6.5%
3.9%

7.6%
34.5%
4.0%
9.8%
7.4%
4.7%

6.0%
39.5%
2.8%
8.4%
6.9%
3.9%

6.6%
39.0%
3.2%
10.3%
8.4%
4.7%

7.0%
35.0%
3.5%
12.7%
9.3%
5.4%

72.3%
41.9%
3.8

65.6%
39.6%
4.8

67.3%
40.2%
4.7

66.0%
39.8%
4.7

77.0%
43.5%
5.0

1.10
4.0%
6.0%
4.0%
4.0%
0.0%
40.8
40.8
NMF
5.8%
9.9%

1.20
7.9%
-0.9%
9.1%
3.0%
NMF
41.3
41.6
36.3
5.6%
9.6%

1.38
22.2%
6.0%
49.5%
1.1%
863.5%
50.5
41.0
85.0
5.0%
9.6%

1.48
12.6%
4.5%
21.0%
4.1%
50.8%
54.3
41.4
87.1
5.2%
14.0%

1.54
14.8%
10.9%
23.5%
1.9%
49.8%
58.4
41.0
90.0
5.0%
14.0%

1.32
0.88

1.03
0.73

1.34
0.88

1.27
0.84

Leverage
7
8
9

Debt/Equity Ratio (%)


Debt/Total Capital (%)
EBIT/Interest (x)

Asset Utilization
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Sales/Assets
Sales Growth Rate (%)
Assets Growth Rate (%)
Receivables Growth Rate (%):
Receivables Growth Rate: Germany
Receivables Growth Rate: Ukraine
Days in Receivables:
Days in Receivables: Germany
Days in Receivables: Ukraine
Payables to Sales
Inventories to Sales

Liquidity
21
22

Current Ratio
Quick Ratio

Page 15

1.15
0.84

Exhibit 3

2002
(Proj'd)
7.0%
35.0%
3.6%
14.2%
9.7%
5.8%

82.7%
45.3%
5.1

1.60
12.6%
8.4%
17.8%
3.0%
30.0%
61.1
41.0
90.0
5.0%
14.0%

1.25
0.84

Page 16

Data for Profit Break-even Analysis Graph

Breakeven Analysis
Volume Revenues Var. Cost
Fixed costs
Rev/Unit
VC/Unit
Breakeven
FC/Contrib

24,573
138.03
91.99
533,822

Change in WC/Unit

1
2
3
4

53.75

Volume
Base
667,000
101% Volume 673,670
Change
6,670
% Change
1.00%

Operating Leverage =

5.0

EBIT
6,130,496
6,437,531
307,035
5.01%

0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000

0
7
14
21
28
35
41
48
55
62
69
76
83
90
97
104
110
117
124
131
138

0
5
9
14
18
23
28
32
37
41
46
51
55
60
64
69
74
78
83
87
92

Breakeven Chart for Bayern Brauerei, 1992

Millions of Deutsche Marks

160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20

Thousands of Hectolitres of Beer Sold

Break-even Analysis Graph

Fixed CostTot. Cost


25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25

auerei, 1992

Revenues
Variable Cost
Fixed Cost
Total Cost

25
29
34
38
43
48
52
57
61
66
71
75
80
84
89
94
98
103
107
112
117

Exhibit 5
Max Leiter's Analysis of the Return on Investment from
Investment in Accounts Receivable in Ukraine
Assumptions
Revenue per HL (EUR)
Variable Costs per HL (EUR)
Contribution Percentage
Tax Rate

Sales in Eastern Lander (EUR, thousands)


Change in Sales (EUR, thousands)
Variable Costs on the Marginal Sales
Contribution on the Marginal Sales
Taxes on the Marginal Contribution
Marginal After-tax Profits (EUR thousands)
Variable Costs/Sales
Change in Accounts Receivable, Ukraine (EUR thousands)
Investment in Accts. Receivable (EUR thousands)
Return on Marginal Investment in Receivables

78.49
52.31
33%
35%
1997
(Actual)
0%

1998
(Actual)
4,262
4,262
(2,840)
1,422
(498)
924

1999
(Actual)
17,559
13,297
(8,862)
4,435
(1,552)
2,883

67%
424
283

67%
3,665
2,443

327%

118%

Investment from
le in Ukraine

2000
(Actual)
25,847
8,288
(5,524)
2,764
(968)
1,797

2001
(Proj'd)
37,479
11,631
(7,752)
3,880
(1,358)
2,522

2002
(Proj'd)
48,722
11,243
(7,493)
3,750
(1,313)
2,438

67%
2,078
1,385

67%
3,073
2,048

67%
2,772
1,848

130%

123%

132%