Chapter 2: Overview of Agriculture in Punjab 2.1: Population and Area ‘The Punjab province is scattered over an area of 2, 05,345 square kilometers. It occupies 25,8 percent of total area of Pakistan, There are 34 districts, 118 tehsils / taluka, 25912 mouzas / villages and 3453 union councils in Punjab There are 25,875 and 245 rural and urban localities having a population of 5.06 million (68.7 percent) and 2.30 million (31.3 percent) respectively (Bureau of Statistics Punjab 2003). As shown in table 2.1 the land area and population of Pakistan is unevenly distributed over its four provinces. Punjab has 25.8 and 55.5 percent of total land and population of Pakistan respectively. It is the most populous province. The population of Punjab increased from 2.05 to 7.36 millions from 1951 to 1998 at an average annual growth rate of 2.75 percent. The population density increased from 124 to 358 persons per square meter during the same period showing an average annual growth rate of 2.28 percent (Bureau of Statistics, Punjab, 2003). The continuous increase in population in Punjab is creating food security issues and other civic problems. Table 2.1: Province Wise Population, Land Arca and Percent Distribution in Pakistan, Punjab Province Area (Sq. | Census Population (Thousand Persons) | kms) i981 71981 1998 [2002 Pakistan 796095 33816. «84254 T30600 145445 (100.0) | (100.0) (100.0) | (400.0) Punjab 205344 20557 72585 30045 | (25.8) | (60.8) (55.59) (55.5) Sindh 140914 6054 29991 33558 | (17.7) 79) (2.97) (23.0) NWEP 74521 45879 17555 19593 Ql) 3.6) (13.3) (13.58) Baluchistan) 347190 1187 6510 7264 L 3.6) | G5) (4.99) (5.00) Note: Figures in parenthesis are percentages, Source: Population census reports and planning commission, 2002 ‘The land area and population of Punjab is unevenly distributed among its different agro- ecological zones. As shown in table 2.2 cotton zone has 51.0 percent of land area and35.3 percent of population of Punjab, While the rice, mixed and barani zones have 22.( and 20,7, 16.0 and 35.1, and 11.0 and 8,9 percent of land area and population of Punjat > respectively. ‘Table 2.2: Zone Wise Population, Land Area and Percent Distribution in Punjab. (Figures in parenthesis are percentages) Province Area Census Population (Thousand Persons) (Sq. kms) 1951 1981 1998 2004 (estimated Punjab 2,05,345 20,541 47,292 73,621 $3,811 L_ (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) Cotton Zone 1,05,504 | 6,391 15,949 25,716 29,625 (51.0) BLD G32) 4.9) 35.3) Rice Zone aaa7s | 4740 10,598 15,565 17,332 (22.0) (23.1) (22.4) QLD (20.7) Mixed Zone 33,312 7,228 | 16,312 25.680 29,356 16.0) (35.2) 34.5) (35.0) 35.1) Barani Zone | 22.254 2,182 4,433 6,660 TA98 (11.0) (10.6) | @.4)s (9.0) (8.9) Source: Punjab Development Statistics, 2003. 2.2: Land Utilization in Punjab The geographical area of Punjab is 20.S3 million hectares. As shown in table 2.3 Punjal occupies 25.9 and 29.5 percent of physical and reported area of Pakistan respectively The cultivated and uncultivated area is 56.4 and 13.6 percent respectively. The net sowt area is 70.8 percent, while irrigated and cropped areas are 75.9 and 73.5 percent o Pakistan respectively. The above situation reveals the importance of Punjab in Pakistar agriculture. 18Table 2.3: Land Utilization Statistics in Pakistan, Punjab, 2002-03. (Thousand Hectares) Ttem Pakistan Punjab | % share of Punjab Geographical Area 79610 20630 25.9 Total Area Reported 39440 17560 29.5 Cultivated Area _ 22100 12470 56.4 Net Sown Area 15580 11030 70.8 Current Fallow 6530 1440 224 Un-cullivated Area 37330 5090 13.6 Forest Arca 4030 510 127 Culturable Waste 3990 1630 18.1 Not Available for Cultivation 24310 2950, 12.1 Area Sown more than Once 6270 4930 78.6 Total Cropped Area 21850 15960 3.0 Irrigated Arca 17736 13456 159 Source: Punjab Development Statisties, 2003. Land statistics in Punjab has witnessed significant changes during the period 1947 to 2003. The reported area increased from 16.78 to 17.56 million hectares showing an average annual growth rate of 0.81 percent, The cultivated area and net sown aree increased from 8.88 to 12.47 and 7.40 to 11.03 million hectares showing an average annual growth rates of 0.61 and 0.71 percent respectively... The cropped area surged from 7.93 to 15,69 million hectares showing an average annual growth rate of 1.23 percent. ‘The area sown more than once also inereased from 0,05 to 4.93 million hectares with an average annual growth rate of 8.5 percent. (Punjab development Statistics, 2003). This occurred due to large investment in Iand and water development. The scope for future land development lies in cultivating the current fallow Jand, bringing culturable waste larea under cultivation and inereasing double cropping with the help of additional water supplies by construction of more reservoirs. water management and land improvement! programmes. 2.3: Land Utilization in Agro-ecological Zones in Punjab: As shown in table 2.4 there is uneven pattern of land utilization in different ecological zones in Punjab. The distribution of land area in cotton, rice, mixed and barani zones o! Punjab is as follows, The zone wise reported area is 42.7, 19.0, 25.2 and 13.1 percent o! reported area of Punjab respectively. The cultivated area is 41.5, 21.7, 28,3 and 8.4 19percent respectively. The cropped arca is 43.7, 25.6, 25.5 and 4,9 percent respectively. ‘The kharif cropped area is 46.7, 26.8, 21.8 and 4.7 percent, while the rabi cropped area is spread over 41.1, 25.0, 28.7 and 5.2 percent in respective zones in Punjab, The above situation explains the position of cach zone in Punjab agriculture Table 2.4: Land Utilization Statisties in Different Ecological Zones in Punjab, 2001-02 (Thousand hectares) Ttem | Punjab | Cotton | Rice Zone | Mixed Barani Zone Zone Zone Reported Area 1751s |7473 3328 4426 2288 (100) __| (42.7) (19.0) (25.2) (23.1) Total Cultivated Area [12380 [ S141 2687 3508 1044 (100) __ | (41.5) 1a) (28.3) (8.4) Net Sown Area Tioit 74590 2541 3135 745 (100) | (41.7) (23.1) 28.5) (6.7) Current Fallow 1369/51 16 373 299 (100) _| (40.2) 00.7) (273) (21.8) Un-cultivated Area $t34 | 2331 oda NG 1243 00) | (45.5) | (12.8) (7.8) (24.2) Culturable Waste 1707 | 1095 195 24a 173 coo) | (64.1) aay 4.3) (10.2) Forest Area 485 87 40 104 254 (00) | (17.9) (8.2) (21.5) (52.4) Not Available for | 2942 1749 | 409 368 816 | Cultivation 00) | 39.1) 103.9) (19.3) Q7.2, Cropped Area 16076 | 7025 /4i57 4101 793 ago) | (43.7) 25.9) (25.5) (4.9) Khatif Area 7313 | 3508 2015 1640 350 00) | 46.7) 26.8) @I18) | 4.2. Rabi Area 8563 | 3517 2142 2461 443 es) | (41.1) (25.0) (28.7) [(5.2) | Area Sowa more than) 5066 | 2436 1617 964 49 Onve ao | 481) 161.9) (19.0) (1.9) Source: - Punjab Development Statistivs, 2003. 2.4: Irrigation & Canal System in Pakistan and Punjab Irrigation water is one of the most important limiting factors in agriculture production, Pakistan has the largest single contiguous gravity flow irrigation system in the world, The Indus River and its tributaries provide the largest irrigation system in the world. The Indus Basin Irrigation system comprises of three major reservoirs, 19 barrages, 2 headworks, 2 siphons across major rivers, 12 inter-river link canals (all in the Punjab), 44 canal systems (23 in Punjab, 14 in Sindh, 5 in NWFP and 2 in Baluchistan) and more than 140,000 watercourses. The aggregate length of canals is 34,834 miles (56,073 kms). In addition, the watercourses, farm channels and field ditches cover another 1.0 million miles (1.6 million kms). The watercourse commands range between 80 to 320 hectares. The irrigation system also utilizes an estimated quantity of 41.6 MAF (51.3 BCM) of groundwater pumped through 6, 80,477 tube wells to supplement the canal supplies (Mushtaq A. Gill, 2004) The Indus river system delivers about 171 million cubic meters or 140 MAF of good quality water on annual basis. The other source of water in the country is groundwater with a total potential of 82 BCM (67 MAF). Thus, the total available water in the country is about 238 BCM (176 MAF). The post Tarbella record shows that about 44 BCM (36 MAF) of river water out flows to sea annually without any use. Out of 140 MAF, 104 MAF water is diverted from the Indus River System to the canal system, whereas out of 67 MAF of groundwater potential, the extraction is about 41 MAF. The table 2.5 shows that out of 104 MAF of water diverted to the irrigation network, only 31 MAF water is available for crop use. The overall irrigation system efficiency is about 22 percent. which is too low and require urgent attention. The water losses in the watercourse have been calculated to 35 MAF and field application losses to 12 MAF (Rai Niaz, 2004). Table 2.5: Availability of Water and System Losses in Pakistan System Total Available | Losses [% of |% of atHead(mafy (maf) Flow. at | toral |_ - | Head | Inflow | River system 140 36 25.3 25.2 | Canals e868 18.7 | Water losses 78 [935 448 | 25.2 Field application 3 2 279 8.6 Crop Use 31 ; [ Escape to sea 31 [T2323 [Total 109 100 Source: Proceedings of seminar “World Water Day®, April, 2004 Organized by Water Management Research Centre, UAF Pakistan,‘The irrigation network of Punjab comprises of 21 canals systems, about 8000 kilometers of drains, 31 small dams and extensive flood protection structures. There are 14 barrages in the five rivers flowing in the heart of the valley with a total off take canal capacity of 3401 m’/ see (120000 cusecs) of irrigations supplies and another about 3118 m* / sec (110000 cusees) capacity of inter riverlinks. ‘There are 2,794 distributaries and minors (31039 kms of length) with over $8,000 outlets providing irrigation facilities in the province. The colossal canal network provides irrigation facilities to 8.53 mha (21 million acres), receive year-round (perennial) supplies, while 3.21 mba (7.9 million acres) get canal water only during 6 summer months (non-perennial canals) (WMRC, 2004). The main and link canals of the Indus Basin Irrigation System in Punjab and region wise length of channels and drains are given in appendix 31 Punjab has, however, recently faced serious water crisis in its history and its fertile lands are turing to deserts due to severe shortage of water because of stoppage of river flows, The shortage of water supplies has further aggravated during the last few years due to lesser rainfall than the normal, triggered mainly due to disturbance in the main weather system responsible for generating water resource’ (Bagh Ali, 2004), As show in appendix 33 and figure 2.1 both rabi and kharif canal withdrawals in Punjab has fluctuated and reduced over time. The growing gap between supply and demand of water is a serious constraint for future agriculture growth in the Punjab. Our major reservoirs Terbella, Mangla and Chashma have already lost their storage capacity from 15.7 MAF to 12.8 MAF by the year 2000. Ever growing population pressure is on the top, therefore, we have to face the problems of food production in very near future to fulfill the nutritional needs of the country. By the year 2011 our irrigation water needs would rise to 146 MAF and still more water will be required to meet the drinking and industrial needs of the country (Dr. Bashir Ahmad, 2004), These all challenges require our concerted efforts to visualize the current situation of water shortaye on a long-term basis.Figure 2.1: Rabi, Kharif and Total Canal Withdrawals in Punjab ‘6 40 4 5 a o 1970-71 1975-76 «1980-81 1985-8590 == «1985-96 © 2000-01 Year Rabi + Khan 2.5: Ground Water Management in Pakistan and Punjab The main source of irrigation in Pakistan is from vast canal system, The amount of available surface water is, however inadequale to meet the crop water requirements. This deficiency is supplemented with groundwater. Pakistan has more than 42 MAF of groundwater reservoir that is being utilized with about 7. 03 074 tubewells for irrigation purposes. The massive development of groundwater started from the Indus Basin aquifer in 1960s with the launching of Salinity Control and Reclamation Project (SCARP). Under this programme more than 15.000 public tubewells of large capacity (60-150 I/S) were installed to lower the groundwater table. This demonstration also led to the proliferation of private tubewells with a capacity of 30-60 I/S, The subsidized power supply and introduction of country model diesel engines provided an impetus for dramatic increase in the number of private tubewells in Pakistan from 10,000 to 7,03,074 during 1960-61 to 2002-03 showing an average annual growth rate of 10.65 percent (Asad Sarwer Qureshi, et al 2004).In Punjab out of an irrigated area of 13,94 million hectares, 9.91 million hectares (71 percent) is irrigated by tubewells, 3.70 million hectares (26.5 percent) by canals, and 0.33 million hectares (2.5 percent) by other sources (Punjab Development Statistics, 2003). Thus, tubewells have become a major source of irrigation in Punjab, followed by canals. Historically, the number of tubewells in Punjab increased since 1985-86. The number of tubewells in Pakistan duritig 1985-86 were 2, 57,309, out of which Punjab had. 2, 23, 847 tubewells ($7 percent). Out of total tube-wells in Punjab 74,143 and 1, 49,703 were electric and diesel respectively. The number of tubewells in Punjab increased from 2, 23,846 to 6, 10,750 During 1985-86 - 2002-03 with an average annual growth rate of 6.08 percent, A tendeney in the decrease of public tube-wells and increase of private tube-well was witnessed. The public tubewells decreased from 10,438 to 3,419, while private tubewells increased from 2, 13,408 to 6, 07,331 with an average annual growth rate of 6.34 during the same period, Further, an increasing trend in the installation of diesel tubewells prevailed during this period; the electric tube-wells decreased from 74,143 to 63,667, while the diesel tube-wells increased from I, 49,703 to $, 47,083 with an average annual growth rate of 7.92 percent (Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan, 2002- 03). The Continuous lowering of water table by groundwater exploitation is, however, creating problems and the groundwater has become inaccessible to the small poor farmers, which has questioned the sustainability of irtigated agriculture in Punjab. Already 5.0 percent area in Punjab has gone out of the reach of the poor farmers and this area is likely to increase to 15.0 percent in the next decade. (Qureshi and Mujeeb, 2003; Qureshi et al., 2003). The excessive lowering of the groundwater table is making pumping more expensive and wells are going cut of production, These problems have questioned the sustainability of this vital resource for various uses especially for agriculture. The groundwater quality in Pakistan is generally poor and is becoming one of the major water resource issues (IWASRI, 1997). About 70 percent of the tubewells in the Indus basin pump sodic water, which contains high concentrations of carbonates and bicarbonates, Application of poor quality water for irrigation turns the soils to saline- sodic affecting soil structure and jnfilwation rates thereby restricting the growth of conventional crops (Qureshi and Barret-iennard. 1998). This requires long-term planning 24and political consensus for building of more reservoirs to meet the water scarcity and to save the soil from degradation. 2.6: Climate / Weather in Punjab, Climate is a key factor in agricultural production. Rainfall. temperature, humidity ete affect the production of crops at different stages. 2.6.1: Rainfall Rainfall is an important factor which affects the acreage and yield of crops. As shown in appendix 34 and figure 2.2 rainfalls is unevenly distributed in all the cropping zones over the period 1970-2001. Rain-fed/ barani zone has the highest quantity of rainfall, followed by rice zone, mixed zone and cotton zone respectively. Rainfall fluctuated between 697 to 1461 millimeters, 491 to 1403 millimeters, 219.5 to 718 millimeters and 72.8 to 462.5 millimeters in barani, rice, mixed and cotton zones respectively over the period. Figure 2.2: Rainfall in ferent Zones in Punjab 1600 | 1400 ' KN, 1970 1975 4980 1985 1890 1995 2000 Year Rice —+-Mixed Cotton Baran’ Punjab 2.6.2: Temperature Temperature is another key factor affecting the production of different crops. The minimum and maximum temperature affects the crop size at different stages of crop production. As shown in figure 2.3 the mean of minimum temperature indicated erratic tetrend in all the zones in Punjab over the period 1970-2001. It fluctuated between 17.3 to 19.2, 17.0 t0 19.7, 15.0 to 18.2 and 14.2 to 16.6 degree centigrade in cotton, rice, mixed and barani zones respectively. The overall average minimum temperature in Punjab was recorded in the range of 16.3 to 18.2 degree centigrade over the same period (Punjab Bureau of statistics, 1970 - 2003). Figure2.3: Mean of Minimum Temperature in Punjab (Centigrade) | Tem perature in Centigrade | 0 1974 19741977 1980 19831986 1989 1992 19951998 2001 Year —+-Ricg ~e-Mixed Cotten ———Bareni Average ‘As shown in figure 2.4 The mean of maximum temperatures ranged from 30.5 to 33.6. 28.6 to 32.3, 28.6 to 31.9 and 27.9 to 30.9 degree centigrade in cotton, mixed, rice and barani zones respectively The overall average maximum temperature in Punjab was recorded from 29.3 to 31.9 degree centigrade over the same period (Punjab bureau of Statistics, 1970-2003). 264: Mean of Maximum Temperature in Punjab (Centigrade) 2 25 —— : 210 oes _—— 3 o5 - — aoe 2 0 e © oo gt eo SF Eo SS SMHS HK FF FP GF EGF FP Gs n+-Rice-=-Mued Caton Bava x Average 2.7: Number and Area of Private Farms Classified by Farm Size Despite three consecutive land reforms, there is still highly skewed distribution of land holding among different farm sizes in Punjab. As shown in table 2.6 farms up to 3.0 hectares constitute 61.5 percent of total private farms. own only 28.8 percent of total farm area and cultivate 30.0 percent of total cultivated area of all farms. As against it farms of size 3 hectares to under 10 hectares constitule 23.4 percent of total farms, own 40.0 percent of total farm area and cultivate 40.5 percent of total cultivated area of all farms. The farms of size 10 hectares to under 20 hectares are only 3.9 percent of total farms but own 16.5 percent of total farm area and cultivate 16.0 percent of total cultivated area. Farms above 20,0 hectares are only 1.2 percent of total private farms but own 14.5 percent of farm area and cultivate 13.2 percent of total cultivated area. A production difference by farm size is a controversial issue. Whether small farms are more productive than large farms is a question of central imerest to policy makers. The 27most commonly stated proposition is that there is an inverse relationship between output per acre and farm size, Often it has been observed that small farms consume greater amounts of traditional inputs, particularly of human and animal labor. It is to the relative intensity of the use of these inputs on small farms that their higher land productivity is attributed. Mehmood (1979) suggests that in Pakistan large farms are relatively more productive because of their greater use of non-traditional inputs. The input intensity of large farms derives from market distortions induced by public policy. Table 2.6: Number and Area of Private Farms Classified by Sizes in Punjab Farm Size (Hectares) Farms Farm Area Cultivated Area (000 Numbers) (000 Hectares) (000 Hectares) Number | Percent | Number | Percent [Total — | Percent All Farms 3864.2 7 100.0 | 112620 | 100.0 | 103136 | 100.0 Government Farms “Ol = 268 02 183 02 Private Farms seedy | 100.0 [112352 7 998 | 102953 [| 99.8 Under 0.5 703.6 i82 201.1 18 13 18 0.5 to under 1,0 617.3 “16.0 459.4 al 443.7 43 1.0 to under 2.0 “BaD 218 1166.8 10.4 1124.4 10.9 2.010 under 3.0 597.9 Bs | wee | 2s 13417 13.0 3.0 to under 5.0 536.4 39 20815 18.5 1955.0 18.9 $.0 to under 10.0 368.4 93 | 24223 | 213 2221.4 216 10. 0 to under 20 149.0 39 | 18386 165 1645.8 16.0 20 to under 40 36.7 1.6 | 9092 | 8 789.9 76 40 to under 60 37 a MET |S 23 20 60 and above 49 Ol 1493 4 370.8 36 | Source: Agricultural Census Organization, Government of Pakistan, 2000 282.8: Land Use and Cropping Intensity by Tenure in Punjab Table 2.7 shows the land use and cropping intensity by tenure in Punjab. As is evident from the table Punjab has the highest land use and cropping intensity in all tenurial classes and on all farms, followed by NWFP, Sindh and Baluchistan. Table 2.7: Land Use and Cropping Intensity by Tenure in Punjab. (In Percent) Province | Average Intensity of Land Use “Average Intensity of Cropping All Owner | Owner All Owner | Owner | Tena Farms | Farms | cam= Farms | Farms | cum- Farn Tenant Tenant Farms Farms Pakistan 85 83 89 142 140 146 14 Punjab 96 3S 96 154 154 153 15° Sindh 77 cz) 76 130 127 126 1¢ NWFP $3 35 B 142 MI 130 16 Baluchistan 33 Sl 50 78 76 64 91 Source: Agricultural Census Organization, Government of Pakistan, 2000 2.9: Cropping Pattern in Punjab Table 2.15 shows the cropping pattern of major crops wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane in Punjab, As is clear from the data, wheat crop constitutes 41 percent of total cropped area in Punjab, followed by 15. 11 respectively. Table 2.8: Cropping Pattern in Punjab. and 3 percent by cotton, rice and sugareane crops Province Percent share of major crops in total erepped arca j Wheat Cotton Sugarcane Pakistan 40 4 4 Punjab at 15 3 Sind 32 18 6 NWEP 49. s 5 Baluchistan 44 * Source: Agricultural Census Organization, Government of Pakistan, 2000. * Value less than 0.5