Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
MANAGEMENT
Brad Fink
28 February 2013
Project Management
Executive Summary
David Carhart runs a consulting company; his new project has several activities that need to be
completed in order to finish a new project. David needs to know how long this project will take
to complete as well as identifying which activities are critical. The route chosen is to draw an
Activity-on-Node Network Diagram.
The District Manager needs to know what the critical path is on a new project as well as the
length of the critical path. Having been tasked to provide this information, the best possible
solution is to draw an activity-on-arrow network diagram.
Robert Klassen, owner of an Ontario factory has provided data for the activity time estimates on
one of his production lines. Robert wants a product so he can visually see each activity with the
critical paths during the process and what the expected time of completion may be. He would
also like some type of work process chart to post on the company bulletin board for his
employees to view at as well.
Andrea McGee of McGee Carpet and Trim installs carpet in commercial offices. She has a
concern with the amount of time that it is taking to complete the projects as of late due to some
of her employees being unreliable. A list of activities along with the optimistic, most likely and
pessimistic times has been provided. Andrea wants to know what the completion time will be as
well as the variance for each activity, the total project completion time with the critical path, and
what the probability of finishing the project in Forty days or less.
Bill Fennema, president of Fennema Construction wants an activity-on-node network diagram
illustrating each task, also the duration and predecessor relationships of the activities. What Bill
needs to distinguish is the expected time for activity C and its variance. Bill would also like to
see the critical path with its estimated time, the activity variance along the critical path and the
probability of completing the project before week Thirty Six.
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Contents
David Carharts Consulting Company ........................................................................................3
AOA Network Diagram .................................................................................................................7
Robert Klassens Factory ..............................................................................................................9
McGee Carpet and Trim .............................................................................................................13
Fennema Construction ................................................................................................................19
Summary .......................................................................................................................................23
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before activity B can start. Activity H however is slightly different; both activities (E and F)
must be completed before activity H can start. Corresponding to each activity is the time activity
A will be completed in three days, in three days activity B can start. All this can be better
viewed in an activity-on-node network diagram shown in Figure 1 below.
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Project Management
Start
Start
Figure 2 -Abbreviations
Project Management
Time in
Days
Pred.
ES
EF
LS
LF
SLACK
Critical
Path
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
3
4
6
6
4
4
6
8
N/A
A
A
B
B
C
D
E,F
0
3
3
7
7
9
13
13
3
7
9
13
11
13
19
21
0
3
3
7
9
9
13
13
3
7
9
13
13
13
19
21
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Notice that activity H has an LF time of 21, this is actual work days, this does not take in account
of weekends or holidays, the actual calendar view will essentially be 28 days. Also, on the
furthest right column all the critical paths are given, for Davis all activities with the exception of
activity E are critical activities.
For a better birds-eye view, Figure 3 can be a much easier way for managers to map and
calculate all activities in a project.
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B
3
13
13
13
13
11
START
19
G
0
19
FINISH
9
3
13
13
9
9
21
C
3
13
21
13
F
9
13
Task Name
Late Start
Slack
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Start
Finish
3
I
5
C
4
F
5
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Project Management
Time in
Days
Pred.
ES
EF
LS
LF
SLACK
Critical
Path
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
5
2
4
5
5
5
2
3
5
N/A
A
A
B
B
C
E,F
D
G,H
0
5
5
7
7
9
14
1
16
5
7
9
12
12
14
16
15
21
0
6
5
8
9
9
14
13
16
5
8
9
13
14
14
16
16
21
0
1
0
1
2
0
0
1
0
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
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Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
6
7.2
5
6
4.5
7.7
4
N/A
N/A
A
B,C
B,C
D
E,F
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6 Hours
Activity A
0
7.2
11
17
Activity C
6
7.2
3.8
24.7
24.7
Activity F
11
17
11
Activity B
3.8
7.7
28.7
Activity G
24.7
24.7
28.7
17
Activity D
11
11
17
11
4.5
15.5
Activity E
20.2
9.2
Early Start
Duration
Early Finish
24.7
LEGEND
Late Start
Slack
Late Finish
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Time in
Days
Pred.
ES
EF
LS
LF
SLACK
Critical
Path
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
6.0
7.2
5.0
6.0
4.5
7.7
4.0
N/A
N/A
A
B,C
B,C
D
E,F
0
0
6
11
11
17
24.7
6.0
7.2
11.0
17.0
15.5
24.7
28.7
0.0
3.8
6.0
11.0
20.2
17.0
24.7
6
11
11.0
17
24.7
24.7
28.7
0
3.8
0
0
9.2
0
0
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Looking at Table 5 there is more than one thing that will answer most of Davids questions. At
the bottom of the column indicated by (LF), the number 28.7 is the total number of hours to
complete all activities. Secondly, the critical paths are easily identified under the (Slack)
column, all slack times with zero are considered to be on a critical path, in this case activities (A,
C, F and G) are the critical paths.
Another way to look at how each activity works hand in hand with the other activities is seen
through a (Gantt) chart; named after Henry Gantt. This chart is very common due to the fact it
usually follows along or in some instances placed on a calendar. The thought here is, if you can
look and understand a calendar, you will be able to look and understand a Gantt chart. Figure 6
shows exactly what a Gantt chart looks like pertaining to Roberts needs.
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To start this off there are some issues that need to be addresses, these concern the three different
times that will determine the expected time of completion and help derive to the variance of each
activity.
In Table 7, the three time required to find the information are provided, they are times (A, B and
M). Using a little math, all the data needed is simple enough, but first we need to understand
what the times given represent.
Time A is the optimistic time an activity will take if everything goes as planned, in
estimating this value, there should be only 1/100 chance that the time will actually be less
than time A.
Time B is the pessimistic time an activity will take assuming very unfavorable conditions
exists. While estimating this value, there should be only a small probability of again
1/100 chance the activity time will be greater than time B.
Time M is the most likely time, or the most reliable estimate of the time required to
complete an activity.
To figure out what each activitys expected completion times will be, as stated earlier, an easy
mathematical calculation must be performed. The expected completion time equals (Time A
plus 4 times time M plus time B) divided by 6. Since the most likely time M is the most
realistic, its value is four times greater than the other two times, hence multiplying it by four.
Looking at activity A, the formula will look like 3+4*6+8/6 which equals 5.83; this is the
expected completion time of activity A. Table 6 will provide the rest of the expected times for
each activity.
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A
3
2
1
6
2
6
1
3
10
14
2
M
6
4
2
7
4
10
2
6
11
16
8
Activity
Completion
Times
Table 7
Expected
B
8
4
3
8
6
14
4
9
12
20
10
Immediate
Predecessor(s)
N/A
N/A
N/A
C
B,D
A,E
A,E
F
G
C
H,I
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
Predecessor
N/A
N/A
N/A
C
B,D
A,E
A,E
F
G
C
H,I
Variance Times
A
M
B
3
6
8
2
4
4
1
2
3
6
7
8
2
4
6
6
10
14
1
2
4
3
6
9
10
11
12
14
16
20
2
8
10
Expected
Completion
Time
5.83
3.67
2.00
7.00
4.00
10.00
2.17
6.00
11.00
16.33
7.33
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Activity Variance
Activity
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
Predecessor
N/A
N/A
N/A
C
B,D
A,E
A,E
F
G
C
H,I
Variance Times
A
M
B
3
6
8
2
4
4
1
2
3
6
7
8
2
4
6
6
10
14
1
2
4
3
6
9
10
11
12
14
16
20
2
8
10
Variance
Table 8 Activity
0.69
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.44
1.78
0.25
1.00
0.11
1.00
1.78
Variance
With the expected completion times and the variance complete, the next step to Andrea needs to
do is find the (ES, LS, ES and EF) times, the critical path(s), the total project completion time
and the slack times. This may sound overwhelming, however, with the right tool all this can be
accomplished in one easy process, and that tool is the activity-on-node network diagram shown
in Figure 7 with all corresponding data in Table 9.
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5.83 5.83
A
7.17 7.17 13
13
10
F
0
13
23
23
23
23
6
H
0
29
29
29
13
2.17 15.17
G
15.83 2.83 18
0
3.67 3.67
B
5.33 5.33
9
9
9
0
0
2
C
0
2
2
2
7
D
0
4
E
0
15.17 11 26.17
I
18 2.83 29
29
7.33 36.33
K
0 36.33
13
13
9
Early Start
16.33 18.33
J
0 18.33
Duration
Early Finish
LEGEND
Late Start
Slack
Late Finish
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Time in
Predecessors
Days
28.3
18.7
9.5
35.3
19.0
48.3
9.7
28.5
56
81.33
35.67
N/A
N/A
N/A
C
B,D
A,E
A,E
F
G
C
H,I
ES
EF
LS
LF
SLACK
Critical
Path
0
0
0
2
9
13
13
23
15.17
2
29
5.83
3.67
2
9
13
23
15.17
29
26.17
18.33
36.33
7.17
5.33
0
2
9
13
15.83
23
18
2
29
13
9
2
9
13
23
18
29
29
18.33
36.33
7.17
5.33
0
0
0
0
2.83
0
2.83
0
0
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Project Management
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
-1.6
0.05480
0.05370
0.05262
0.05155
0.05050
0.04947
0.04846
0.04746
0.04648
-1.5
0.06681
0.06552
0.06426
0.06301
0.06178
0.06057
0.05938
0.05821
0.05705
-1.4
-1.3
-1.2
-1.1
-1
0.08076
0.09680
0.11507
0.13567
0.15866
0.07927
0.09510
0.11314
0.13350
0.15625
0.07780
0.09342
0.11123
0.13136
0.15386
0.07636
0.09176
0.10935
0.12924
0.15151
0.07493
0.09012
0.10749
0.12714
0.14917
0.07353
0.08851
0.10565
0.12507
0.14686
0.07215
0.08691
0.10383
0.12302
0.14457
0.07078
0.08534
0.10204
0.12100
0.14231
0.06944
0.08379
0.10027
0.11900
0.14007
Table 10 Z Table
Since Andrea has a value of 1.47 she needs to look at the Z Table and scroll down until she
reaches 1.4, then scroll right until she reaches the 0.07 column, circled in red, the number that
links the 1.4 row and the 0.07 column is 0.07078; multiply that by 100 and Andrea has a 7.08%
chance of finishing within Forty days or less.
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Project Management
Fennema Construction
Bill Fennema has spent an exhausting amount of time developing tasks, the tasks duration times
and which tasks are to be completed in a sequenced order. Bill has provided this data to have an
activity-on-node network (AON) diagram be drawn. With the AON diagram he has also asked
for the expected time of completion for activity C as well as its variance. Figure 8 with start this
process with the AON Diagram.
2
3
5
6
8
9
7
4
10
11
The piece of information Bill needs, is to find the expected time of completion for activity C, this
can be done with little effort utilizing an Excel spreadsheet, and Table 11 will show all expected
completion times, however only activity C will be highlighted.
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Fennema Construction
Fennema Contruction Expected Completion Times
Activity Predeccessor
A
N/A
B
A
C
A
D
A
E
B
F
E,C
G
E,C
H
F
I
F
J
D,G,H
K
I,J
A
4
2
8
4
1
6
2
2
6
4
2
Times
M
8
8
12
6
2
8
3
2
6
6
2
B
10
24
16
10
3
20
4
2
6
12
3
12.00
6.33
2.00
9.67
3.00
2.00
6.00
6.67
2.17
Bill now has the expected time of completion not only for activity C, but all activities involved
with the project. All of the expected completion times were computed using the optimistic time
(A), most likely time (M) and pessimistic time (B) which Bill provided in his data. The next bit
of information needed is the variance of activity C, again the spreadsheet will easily configure
this shown in Table 12 below.
A
4
2
8
4
1
6
2
2
6
4
2
Times
M
8
8
12
6
2
8
3
2
6
6
2
B
10
24
16
10
3
20
4
2
6
12
3
Expected
Variance
Completion
Time
7.67
1.00
9.67
13.44
12.00
1.78
6.33
1.00
2.00
0.11
9.67
5.44
3.00
0.11
2.00
0.00
6.00
0.00
6.67
1.78
2.17
0.03
Table 12
Variance
Values
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Fennema Construction
Now that Bill knows what the activity-on-node looks like, what the critical path is, the expected
completion time for activity C as well as its variance, the estimated time of the critical path and
activity variance along the critical path is needed. To complete this, the Gantt chart will become
extremely useful; Figure 9 will show the critical activities along with the expected completion
times.
Looking at Figure 9, there are only six activities; these particular activities are on the critical path
of the project. The estimated time of completion can be seen on the top summary bar; in this
case the estimated completion time is 40.18 (Questionable) weeks. The reason for the question
mark is that this is in fact an estimated time. Since the current subject is critical path, the next
relevant topic is the variance of the critical path. Looking back to Table 12, when summing up
all of the variances on the critical path the total will end up being 10.03, refer to Table 13.
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Fennema Construction
Fennema Contruction Variance (Activity C)
Activity Predeccessor
A
N/A
C
A
F
E,C
H
F
J
D,G,H
K
I,J
Times
M
B
8
10
12
16
8
20
2
2
6
12
2
3
Total Variance:
A
4
8
6
2
4
2
Variance
1.00
1.78
5.44
0.00
1.78
0.03
10.03
Using a calculator, subtract the expected completion time of 40.18 weeks from the 36 weeks Bill
is striving for, the result is -4.18, this is the Z value, divide the Z value by the standard deviation
and the final calculation is -1.32. Looking at the Z Table, in Figure 14 go down the Z column
until -1.3 is reached, move to the right under the column heading of 0.02, the result is 0.09342,
multiply that by 100 and the probability is 9.34% chance of completing the project before week
36.
0.01
0.02
0.03
-1.5
0.06681
0.06552
0.06426
0.06301
0.06178
-1.4
-1.3
-1.2
-1.1
-1
-0.9
-0.8
0.08076
0.09680
0.11507
0.13567
0.15866
0.18406
0.21186
0.07927
0.09510
0.11314
0.13350
0.15625
0.18141
0.20897
0.07780
0.09342
0.11123
0.13136
0.15386
0.17879
0.20611
0.07636
0.09176
0.10935
0.12924
0.15151
0.17619
0.20327
0.07493
0.09012
0.10749
0.12714
0.14917
0.17361
0.20045
Figure 14 Z
Table
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Project Management
Summary
As managers, it is necessary to realize all the tools available on the market that will assist them
in producing vivid and explosive reports. More importantly is knowing when and how to use
these applications. In the case of David Carhart and Andrea McGee, the tools of choice were an
Excel spreadsheet and Visio, the importance of knowing not only how to use the basic functions
of an application, but how to master them can be the difference between a poor document and an
eye opening report.
In the case of Robert Klassen and Fennema Construction, not only were Visio and a spreadsheet
were used, but also an application called Project was utilized, as most can understand, knowing
more than one application and using more than just one can have a much greater impact on the
upper management and the decision they face during that crucial time of an approval or
disapproval.
The old saying If you dont use it, you lose it is as true today as when it was first said. If
current managers do not use the applications designed to direct them into better managers, there
are always others behind them ready to get their chance at managing and climbing up the
corporate ladder. The managers who choose not to utilize the tools or refuse to train themselves
will lose all the vital skills necessary to become professionally proficient. For those managers
who do take the time and conduct their own professional development, not only will their
employees look at them with confidence, but maybe, just maybe so will the corporate
supervisors.
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