Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Clare Parsons
EDEXCEL
NUMERICAL MEASURES
REPRESENTING DATA
PROBABILITY
DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES
UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
ESTIMATION (CLT & CIs)
CORRELATION & REGRESSION
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
AQA
OCR
MEI
Session 1 : Probability
Session Content
conditional probability
independent events
using different representations
the laws of probability
black on
both sides
yellow on
both sides
Probability is hard
In Oct 2012, 97 MPs were asked
the probability of getting 2 heads in a row when
spinning a coin.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19801666
Conditional Probability
I have 3 children. One of them is female.
What is the probability that the other two are both
male?
F
F
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
A - I have 2 sons
C - My eldest child is
female
Independence
We assumed that the event having a son is
independent of the event having a daughter
P( having a son, given you have a daughter )
= P( having a son)
P( having a daughter given you have a son )
= P( having a daughter)
Glasses
Some notation
G
P(M)
P(G)
P(MG)
P(M|G)
Different Diagrams
A
10
2
10
What is P( B/A )?
Exam question
Edexcel - January 2012 No. 2
(a) State in words the relationship between two events R and S when P(R S) = 0.
Mutually exclusive
The events A and B are independent with P(A) =
(1)
1
2
and P(A B) = .
4
3
Find
(b) P(B),
(4)
(c) P(A B),
(2)
(d) P(B | A).
(2)
Markscheme
2 (a)
B1
(1)
(b)
2 1
= + P B P A B
3 4
2 1
1
P B P B
3 4
4
5 3
P B
12 4
5
P B =
9
use of independence
M1
M1 A1
A1
(4)
(c)
P(AB) =
3 5 15 5
=
4 9 36 12
M1A1ft
(2)
(d)
P( B A ) =
(1 - (b)) 0.25
0.25
4
9
1
or P( B ) or 9
1
4
M1
A1
(2)
(9 marks)
http://integralmaths.org
Session 2 : Variation
Session Content:
Averages
Interpreting data presented graphically
Skewness
Need for measures of spread
Standard deviation
Linear scaling
Average Wage
There are 11 employees in Data Limited what could their wages be?
The average employee in Data
Limited already makes
executive.
"The average employee in Data
Limited makes 40 000. That is
15 000 a
Four averages
Mean
Median
Mid-range
Half way between the
highest and lowest values
http://integralmaths.org/course/vie
w.php?id=192
BHC before
housing costs
AHC after
housing costs
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/206778/full_hbai13.pdf
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/206778/full_hbai1.pdf
Skew ?
charactersticsofbirth1final_tcm77-378111
OUTLIERS
Saxon Shum from West Wales (now a healthy 8 month old in Jan 2104) was
born 3 months prematurely weighing
1 lb 12 oz
(0.79kg)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2537061/Photographer-documents-premature-sonsfight-life-born-26-weeks-weighing-just-1lb-12oz.html
On February 11th 2013 Baby George Packer was born (naturally but 2 weeks late) in
Gloucester Royal Infirmary weighing
15 lb 7oz
(7.0kg)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2301337/What-whopper-At-eye-watering-15lb-7oz-George-thoughtbiggest-baby-born-naturally-Britain.html
OUTLIERS
What is too big or too small?
Values which are more than 1.5 x interquartile range
above upper quartile or below lower quartile
= 0.75 kg
= 1.125 kg
= 1.895 kg
= 4.895 kg
3.02 kg
3.37 kg
3.77 kg
Illustrating Outliers
Births Weights of all babies born in England and Wales 2013
2 Data Sets
Data Set A
4 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 20 21
21 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 36
Data Set B
4 5 6 16 17 17 20 20 20 21 21
21 23 28 30 30 30 34 35 36 36 36
Standard deviation
Standard deviation measures spread by calculating an
average distance of the data values from the mean.
x x
x x
n 1
B) decreases
D) insufficient information
is given
x x
n 1
S xx xi x xi
2
standard deviation
root mean square
deviation, rmsd
xi 2 nx 2
variance,
s =
S xx
n 1
S xx
n
s =
S xx
n 1
S xx
n
Linear Scaling
What do you see happening?
Linear Scaling
A gambling problem
Le Chevaliers Reasoning
On one throw of a die,
1
P(six) =
6
Average number of 6s in
four throws =
1 2
4
6 3
1
P(double six) =
36
Average number of double
6s in 24 rolls =
1 2
24
36 3
Useful friends
De Mere wrote to his friend Pascal
A simulation
P(having a phone with e coli)
= P(getting a six on a dice)
Problem:
Given a random sample of 4 phones what is the
probability of none, 1, 2, 3, or 4 being
contaminated?
Simulation:
Toss 4 dice 20 times and record the number of
sixes occurring each time
Observed Relative
Frequency
(from simulation)
Theoretical Probability
phone 1
contaminated
hygienic
phone 2
contaminated
hygienic
contaminated
hygienic
None
One
Two
Three
Four
contaminated contaminated contaminated contaminated contaminated
1
2
3
4
5
5
6
1 5
2
6 6
None
One
Two
Three
Four
contaminated contaminated contaminated contaminated contaminated
5
6
2
5
6
5
6
5
6
5
1
6
1 5
2
6 6
1
6
2
2
1
5
1
5
3 3
6 6
6 6
3
1
6
2
2
3
1 5
1
5
1
5
4 6
6 6
6 6
6 6
1
6
at random two6are
with
random
contaminated
0.116
6 two of them
two are contaminated
6 with E-coli,
are contaminated with
4C
Whats 2the probability that if I chose 4 of your
Number of ways of
choosing 2 objects from 4
Spreadsheet
nC
r (1- p)n-r
p
r
r = 0, 1, 2, . n
X ~ B (n, p)
indicates that the random variable, X, has a binomial
distribution with n trials and probability, p, of success
each time.
Pepyss problem
wins 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
losses 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
the number of wins is more than 5
the number of losses is fewer than 3
the number of wins is at least 6
the number of losses is at most 2
the number of losses is 2 or less
wins 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
losses 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
wins 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
losses 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
So .
Whats the probability that at least one of us in this room has
a mobile phone contaminated with E-coli ?
Not
contaminated
Not
contaminated
Not
contaminated
contaminated
contaminated
contaminated
Phone 1
Phone 2
Phone 3
5 1
P( X 2)
6 6
2
5 1
P( X 3)
6 6
3
5 1
P( X 4)
6 6
Multiplying by
5
6
(connection to geometric
sequences)
1
X ~ Geo
6
Normally Distributed
What do we mean by this?
What does it look like?
Quetelets Data
Is it normal?
Birth weights
Is it normal?
Weights of 5 year olds
http://www.nationalstemcentre.org.uk/elibrary/resource/671
0/anthropometric-data
Is it normal?
Weights of 15-18 yr old females
Is it normal?
Heights of 15-20yr females
OUTLIERS
What is too big or too small?
Values which are more than 1.5 x interquartile range
above upper quartile or below lower quartile
OR
Values which are more than 2 standard deviations away
from the mean (if distribution is approx symmetric)
95%
99%
Card sort
Exam question
AQA - May 2012 No. 5 (part (a))
X is
the weight of the 2.5kg bags
Tackling problems